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The Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) channel for the formation of binary black hole (BBH) mergers has been previously studied as a potential formation channel for the merging compact binaries observed by the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK) scientific collaboration. The first two papers in this series explored the McFACTS code for the evolution of black hole orbits in AGN accretion disks for individual galaxy models and described the characteristics of predicted BBH populations in realizations of those models (such as the correlation between mass ratio and aligned spin). In this work, we explore the impact of the properties of AGN host galaxies and assume an AGN lifetime and cosmological model for the density of AGN in a universe like our own. By sampling from an inferred population of AGN, we marginalize over galaxy mass to predict a population of BBH mergers observable by modern ground-based gravitational wave observatories. We find that for reasonable assumptions, AGN disk environments may account for massive BBH mergers such as GW190521 and GW190929_012149. We find that the majority of observable BBH mergers from our simulation are expected to originate in galaxies with a super-massive black hole between $10^{7}M_{\odot}$ and $10^{9.4}M_{\odot}$. We also find that if hierarchical mergers from AGN disks account for a substantial part of the LVK population, our current models require an AGN lifetime of 0.5 to 2.5 Myr., Comment: Submitting to ApJ

Quasars are bright active galactic nuclei powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the center of galaxies. Their stochastic brightness variability depends on the physical properties of the accretion disk and black hole. The upcoming Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) is expected to observe tens of millions of quasars, so there is a need for efficient techniques like machine learning that can handle the large volume of data. Quasar variability is believed to be driven by an X-ray corona, which is reprocessed by the accretion disk and emitted as UV/optical variability. We are the first to introduce an auto-differentiable simulation of the accretion disk and reprocessing. We use the simulation as a direct component of our neural network to jointly model the driving variability and reprocessing to fit simulated LSST 10-year quasar light curves. The driving variability is reconstructed using a latent stochastic differential equation, a physically motivated, generative deep learning method that can model continuous-time stochastic dynamics. By embedding these physical processes into our network, we achieve a model that is more robust and interpretable. We also use transformers to scale our model to tens of millions of parameters. We demonstrate how our model outperforms a Gaussian process regression baseline and can infer accretion disk parameters and time delays between wavebands, even for out-of-distribution driving signals. Our approach provides a powerful and scalable framework that can be adapted to solve other inverse problems in multivariate time series with irregular sampling., Comment: 31 pages, 19 figures

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) are a promising source of the binary black hole (BBH) mergers observed in gravitational waves with LIGO-Virgo-Kagra (LVK). Constraining the AGN channel allows us to limit AGN parameter space (disk density, size, average lifetime) and nuclear star cluster (NSC) parameter space. Constraints on AGN and NSCs have implications for $\Lambda$CDM models of AGN feedback and models of AGN-driven SMBH merger and growth. Here we present several qualitative studies of the AGN channel using new public, open-source, fast, reproducible code \texttt{McFACTS}\footnote{https://github.com/mcfacts}:Monte Carlo for AGN channel Testing \& Simulation. We demonstrate several important features for testing the AGN channel, including: i) growth to large mass IMBH is helped by the presence of migration traps or disk boundaries, ii) flat BH initial mass functions highlight hierarchical merger features in the mass spectrum, iii) high rates of dynamical encounters strongly inhibit BBH formation and merger at migration traps, iv) the ($q,\chi_{\rm eff}$) anti-correlation is a strong test of the bias to prograde mergers in the AGN channel, v) spheroid encounters can drive a fraction of mergers with high in-plane spin components ($\chi_{\rm p}$), vi) a high rate of extreme mass ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are driven by an initial population of embedded retrograde BH, vii) Both LVK and LISA are powerful probes of models of AGN disks and their embedded populations., Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures, 1 table, ApJ (submitted)

We carried out long-term monitoring of the LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA binary black hole (BBH) merger candidate S230922g in search of electromagnetic emission from the interaction of the merger remnant with an embedding active galactic nuclei (AGN) accretion disk. Using a dataset primarily composed of wide-field imaging from the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) and supplemented by additional photometric and spectroscopic resources, we searched ~ 70% of the sky area probability for transient phenomena, and discovered 6 counterpart candidates. One especially promising candidate - AT 2023aagj - exhibited temporally varying asymmetric components in spectral broad line regions, a feature potentially indicative of an off-center event such as a BBH merger. This represents the first live search and multiwavelength, photometric, and spectroscopic monitoring of a GW BBH optical counterpart candidate in the disk of an AGN., Comment: 25 pages, 9 figures. Comments welcome

The phenomenon of changing-look (CL) behavior in active galactic nuclei (AGN) is characterized by dramatic changes in luminosity and/or emission line profiles over relatively short periods, ranging from months to years. The origin of CL-AGNs remains a mystery, but one proposed explanation involves the response of the inner AGN disk to tidal disruption events (TDEs) around the supermassive black hole (SMBH). In this Letter, we calculate the predicted frequency of AGN TDEs as a function of SMBH mass and compare the results to the observed CL-AGN distribution. We find that if the fraction of CL-AGNs caused by AGN-TDEs is high, then: (1) most SMBHs in CL-AGN are near maximal spin, with the dimensionless spin parameter $a>0.9$; (2) AGN inner disks have a high surface density ($\geq 10^{7}\, {\rm g\, cm^{-2}}$); (3) typical AGN lifetimes are $\sim 10$-$100$ Myr; and (4) a nuclear star cluster initial mass function (IMF) that scales as $\sim m_*^{-1.6}$ is preferred. Future observations of CL-AGN will help constrain the fraction of CL-AGNs caused by AGN-TDEs, SMBH spins, AGN lifetimes, and the nuclear star cluster IMF., Comment: Comments are welcome

Tidal Disruption Events (TDEs) are routinely observed in quiescent galaxies, as stars from the nuclear star cluster are scattered into the loss cone of the central supermassive black hole (SMBH). TDEs are also expected to occur in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), due to scattering or orbital eccentricity pumping of stars embedded in the innermost regions of the AGN accretion disk. Encounters with embedded stellar-mass black holes (BH) can result in AGN $\mu$TDEs. AGN TDEs and $\mu$TDEs could therefore account for a fraction of observed AGN variability. Here, by performing scattering experiments with the few-body code {\tt SpaceHub}, we compute the probability of AGN TDEs and $\mu$TDEs as a result of 3-body interactions between stars and binary BHs. We find that AGN TDEs are more probable during the early life of the AGNs, when rates are $\sim (6\times 10^{-5}-5 \times 10^{-2}) (f_\bullet/0.01)$ $~\rm{AGN}^{-1}$~yr$^{-1}$ (where $f_\bullet$ is the ratio between the number density of BHs and stars), generally higher than in quiescent galactic nuclei. By contrast, $\mu$TDEs should occur throughout the AGN lifetime at a rate of $\sim (1\times 10^{-4} - 4\times 10^{-2} (f_\bullet/0.01)$ $~\rm{AGN}^{-1}$~yr$^{-1}$. Detection and characterization of AGN TDEs and $\mu$ AGN TDEs with future surveys using {\em Rubin} and {\em Roman} will help constrain the populations of stars and compact objects embedded in AGN disks, a key input for the LVK AGN channel., Comment: Final version accepted by MNRAS

Merging black holes (BH) are expected to produce remnants with large dimensionless spin parameters ($a_{\rm spin} \sim 0.7$). However, gravitational wave (GW) observations with LIGO/Virgo suggest that merging BH are consistent with modestly positive but not high spin ($a_{\rm spin} \sim 0.2$), causing tension with models suggesting that high mass mergers are produced by hierarchical merger channels. Some BH also show evidence for strong in-plane spin components. Here we point out that \emph{spin down} of BH due to eccentric prograde post-merger orbits within the gas of an active galactic nucleus (AGN) disk can yield BH with masses in the upper mass gap, but only modestly positive $a_{\rm spin}$, and thus observations of BH with low spin \emph{do not} rule out hierarchical models. We also point out that the fraction of BBH mergers with significant in-plane spin components is a strong test of interactions between disk binary black holes (BBH) and nuclear spheroid orbiters. Spin magnitude and spin tilt constraints from LIGO/Virgo observations of BBH are an excellent test of dynamics of black holes in AGN disks, disk properties and the nuclear clusters interacting with AGN., Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, MNRAS submitted

We present analysis of NuSTAR X-ray observations of three AGN that were identified as candidate subparsec binary supermassive black hole (SMBH) systems in the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey based on apparent periodicity in their optical light curves. Simulations predict that close-separation accreting SMBH binaries will have different X-ray spectra than single accreting SMBHs. We previously observed these AGN with Chandra and found no differences between their low energy X-ray properties and the larger AGN population. However some models predict differences to be more prominent at energies higher than probed by Chandra. We find that even at the higher energies probed by NuSTAR, the spectra of these AGN are indistinguishable from the larger AGN population. This could rule out models predicting large differences in the X-ray spectra in the NuSTAR bands. Alternatively, it might mean that these three AGN are not binary SMBHs.

Quasars are bright and unobscured active galactic nuclei (AGN) thought to be powered by the accretion of matter around supermassive black holes at the centers of galaxies. The temporal variability of a quasar's brightness contains valuable information about its physical properties. The UV/optical variability is thought to be a stochastic process, often represented as a damped random walk described by a stochastic differential equation (SDE). Upcoming wide-field telescopes such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) are expected to observe tens of millions of AGN in multiple filters over a ten year period, so there is a need for efficient and automated modeling techniques that can handle the large volume of data. Latent SDEs are machine learning models well suited for modeling quasar variability, as they can explicitly capture the underlying stochastic dynamics. In this work, we adapt latent SDEs to jointly reconstruct multivariate quasar light curves and infer their physical properties such as the black hole mass, inclination angle, and temperature slope. Our model is trained on realistic simulations of LSST ten year quasar light curves, and we demonstrate its ability to reconstruct quasar light curves even in the presence of long seasonal gaps and irregular sampling across different bands, outperforming a multioutput Gaussian process regression baseline. Our method has the potential to provide a deeper understanding of the physical properties of quasars and is applicable to a wide range of other multivariate time series with missing data and irregular sampling., Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures

The James Webb Space Telescope's Near Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (JWST-NIRISS) flies a 7-hole non-redundant mask (NRM), the first such interferometer in space, operating at 3-5 \micron~wavelengths, and a bright limit of $\simeq 4$ magnitudes in W2. We describe the NIRISS Aperture Masking Interferometry (AMI) mode to help potential observers understand its underlying principles, present some sample science cases, explain its operational observing strategies, indicate how AMI proposals can be developed with data simulations, and how AMI data can be analyzed. We also present key results from commissioning AMI. Since the allied Kernel Phase Imaging (KPI) technique benefits from AMI operational strategies, we also cover NIRISS KPI methods and analysis techniques, including a new user-friendly KPI pipeline. The NIRISS KPI bright limit is $\simeq 8$ W2 magnitudes. AMI (and KPI) achieve an inner working angle of $\sim 70$ mas that is well inside the $\sim 400$ mas NIRCam inner working angle for its circular occulter coronagraphs at comparable wavelengths., Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures

The accretion disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) are promising locations for the merger of compact objects detected by gravitational wave (GW) observatories. Embedded within a baryon-rich, high density environment, mergers within AGN are the only GW channel where an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart must occur (whether detectable or not). Considering AGN with unusual flaring activity observed by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), we describe a search for candidate EM counterparts to binary black hole (BBH) mergers detected by LIGO/Virgo in O3. After removing probable false positives, we find nine candidate counterparts to BBH mergers mergers during O3 (seven in O3a, two in O3b) with a $p$-value of 0.019. Based on ZTF sky coverage, AGN geometry, and merger geometry, we expect $\approx 3(N_{\rm BBH}/83)(f_{\rm AGN}/0.5)$ potentially detectable EM counterparts from O3, where $N_{\rm BBH}$ is the total number of observed BBH mergers and $f_{\rm AGN}$ is the fraction originating in AGN. Further modeling of breakout and flaring phenomena in AGN disks is required to reduce our false positive rate. Two of the events are also associated with mergers with total masses $> 100M_\odot$, which is the expected rate for O3 if hierarchical (large mass) mergers occur in the AGN channel. Candidate EM counterparts in future GW observing runs can be better constrained by coverage of the Southern sky as well as spectral monitoring of unusual AGN flaring events in LIGO/Virgo alert volumes. A future set of reliable AGN EM counterparts to BBH mergers will yield an independent means of measuring cosmic expansion ($H_0$) as a function of redshift., Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures, submitted to ApJ

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) dataset will dramatically alter our understanding of the Universe, from the origins of the Solar System to the nature of dark matter and dark energy. Much of this research will depend on the existence of robust, tested, and scalable algorithms, software, and services. Identifying and developing such tools ahead of time has the potential to significantly accelerate the delivery of early science from LSST. Developing these collaboratively, and making them broadly available, can enable more inclusive and equitable collaboration on LSST science. To facilitate such opportunities, a community workshop entitled "From Data to Software to Science with the Rubin Observatory LSST" was organized by the LSST Interdisciplinary Network for Collaboration and Computing (LINCC) and partners, and held at the Flatiron Institute in New York, March 28-30th 2022. The workshop included over 50 in-person attendees invited from over 300 applications. It identified seven key software areas of need: (i) scalable cross-matching and distributed joining of catalogs, (ii) robust photometric redshift determination, (iii) software for determination of selection functions, (iv) frameworks for scalable time-series analyses, (v) services for image access and reprocessing at scale, (vi) object image access (cutouts) and analysis at scale, and (vii) scalable job execution systems. This white paper summarizes the discussions of this workshop. It considers the motivating science use cases, identified cross-cutting algorithms, software, and services, their high-level technical specifications, and the principles of inclusive collaborations needed to develop them. We provide it as a useful roadmap of needs, as well as to spur action and collaboration between groups and individuals looking to develop reusable software for early LSST science., Comment: White paper from "From Data to Software to Science with the Rubin Observatory LSST" workshop

Stars and stellar remnants orbiting a supermassive black hole (SMBH) can interact with an active galactic nucleus (AGN) disc. Over time, prograde orbiters (inclination $i<90^{\circ}$) decrease inclination, as well as semi-major axis $(a)$ and eccentricity $(e)$ until orbital alignment with the gas disc ('disc capture'). Captured stellar-origin black holes (sBH) add to the embedded AGN population which drives sBH-sBH mergers detectable in gravitational waves using LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA (LVK) or sBH-SMBH mergers detectable with LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna). Captured stars can be tidally disrupted by sBH or the SMBH or rapidly grow into massive 'immortal' stars. Here, we investigate the behaviour of polar and retrograde orbiters $(i \geq 90^{\circ})$ interacting with the disc. We show that retrograde stars are captured faster than prograde stars, flip to prograde orientation $(i<90^{\circ})$ during capture, and decrease $a$ dramatically towards the SMBH. For sBH, we find a critical angle $i_{\rm ret} \sim 113^{\circ}$, below which retrograde sBH decay towards embedded prograde orbits $(i \to 0^{\circ})$, while for $i_{\rm o}>i_{\rm ret}$ sBH decay towards embedded retrograde orbits $(i \to 180^{\circ})$. sBH near polar orbits $(i \sim 90^{\circ})$ and stars on nearly embedded retrograde orbits $(i \sim 180^{\circ})$ show the greatest decreases in $a$. Whether a star is captured by the disc within an AGN lifetime depends primarily on disc density, and secondarily on stellar type and initial $a$. For sBH, disc capture-time is longest for polar orbits, low mass sBH and lower density discs. Larger mass sBH should typically spend more time in AGN discs, with implications for the embedded sBH spin distribution., Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, 1 table

To address the challenges of providing high performance calorimetry in future hadron collider experiments under conditions of high luminosity and high radiation (FCChh environments), we are conducting R&D on advanced calorimetry techniques suitable for such operation, based on scintillation and wavelength-shifting technologies and photosensor (SiPM and SiPM-like) technology. In particular, we are focusing our attention on ultra-compact radiation hard EM calorimeters, based on modular structures (RADiCAL modules) consisting of alternating layers of very dense absorber and scintillating plates, read out via radiation hard wavelength shifting (WLS) solid fiber or capillary elements to photosensors positioned either proximately or remotely, depending upon their radiation tolerance. The RADiCAL modules provide the capability to measure simultaneously and with high precision the position, energy and timing of EM showers. This paper provides an overview of the instrumentation and photosensor R&D associated with the RADiCAL program., Comment: Submitted to the Snowmass 2021 Summer Study, Instrumentation Frontier and Energy Frontier

Stars are likely embedded in the gas disks of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN). Theoretical models predict that in the inner regions of the disk these stars accrete rapidly, with fresh gas replenishing hydrogen in their cores faster than it is burned into helium, effectively stalling their evolution at hydrogen burning. We produce order-of-magnitude estimates of the number of such stars in a fiducial AGN disk. We find numbers of order $10^{2-4}$, confined to the inner $r_{\rm cap} \sim 3000 r_s \sim 0.03\rm pc$. These stars can profoundly alter the chemistry of AGN disks, enriching them in helium and depleting them in hydrogen, both by order-unity amounts. We further consider mergers between these stars and other disk objects, suggesting that star-star mergers result in rapid mass loss from the remnant to restore an equilibrium mass, while star-compact object mergers may result in exotic outcomes and even host binary black hole mergers within themselves. Finally, we examine how these stars react as the disk dissipates towards the end of its life, and find that they may return mass to the disk fast enough to extend its lifetime by a factor of several and/or may drive powerful outflows from the disk. Post-AGN, these stars rapidly lose mass and form a population of stellar mass black holes around $10M_{\odot}$. Due to the complex and uncertain interactions between embedded stars and the disk, their plausible ubiquity, and their order unity impact on disk structure and evolution, they must be included in realistic disk models., Comment: 12 pages, 2 figures. Accepted in ApJ

We present an analysis that reconciles the gravitational-wave signal GW190521 observed by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors with the electromagnetic flare ZTF19abanrhr observed by the Zwicky Transient Facility. We analyze GW190521 under a mass-ratio prior uniform in $Q \in [1,4]$ and using the state-of-the-art waveform model for black-hole mergers \texttt{NRSur7dq4}. We find a $90\%$ credible region for the black-hole masses extending far outside what originally reported by \cite{GW190521D}, where our maximum likelihood masses reside. We find a $15\%$ probability that both black holes avoid the pair-instability supernova gap. We infer a three-dimensional sky-location highly consistent with ZTF19abanrhr, obtaining an odds-ratio ${\cal{O}}_{C/R}=72:1$ that strongly favors the hypothesis of a true coincidence over a random one. Combining this event with the neutron-star merger GW170817, we estimate a Hubble constant H$_0=72.1^{+10.6}_{-6.4}\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}\,Mpc^{-1}}$ at the $68\%$ credible level., Comment: 14 Pages, 11 Figures

UVEX is a proposed medium class Explorer mission designed to provide crucial missing capabilities that will address objectives central to a broad range of modern astrophysics. The UVEX design has two co-aligned wide-field imagers operating in the FUV and NUV and a powerful broadband medium resolution spectrometer. In its two-year baseline mission, UVEX will perform a multi-cadence synoptic all-sky survey 50/100 times deeper than GALEX in the NUV/FUV, cadenced surveys of the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds, rapid target of opportunity followup, as well as spectroscopic followup of samples of stars and galaxies. The science program is built around three pillars. First, UVEX will explore the low-mass, low-metallicity galaxy frontier through imaging and spectroscopic surveys that will probe key aspects of the evolution of galaxies by understanding how star formation and stellar evolution at low metallicities affect the growth and evolution of low-metallicity, low-mass galaxies in the local universe. Such galaxies contain half the mass in the local universe, and are analogs for the first galaxies, but observed at distances that make them accessible to detailed study. Second, UVEX will explore the dynamic universe through time-domain surveys and prompt spectroscopic followup capability will probe the environments, energetics, and emission processes in the early aftermaths of gravitational wave-discovered compact object mergers, discover hot, fast UV transients, and diagnose the early stages of stellar explosions. Finally, UVEX will become a key community resource by leaving a large all-sky legacy data set, enabling a wide range of scientific studies and filling a gap in the new generation of wide-field, sensitive optical and infrared surveys provided by the Rubin, Euclid, and Roman observatories. This paper discusses the scientific potential of UVEX, and the broad scientific program., Comment: 69 pages, 43 figures

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) are promising environments for the assembly of merging binary black hole (BBH) systems. Interest in AGNs as nurseries for merging BBH is rising following the detection of gravitational waves from a BBH system from the purported pair-instability mass gap, most notably, GW190521. Active galactic nuclei have also been invoked to explain the formation of the high-mass-ratio system, GW190814. We draw on simulations of BBH systems in AGN to propose a phenomenological model for the distribution of black hole spins of merging binaries in AGN disks. The model incorporates distinct features that make the AGN channel potentially distinguishable from other channels, such as assembly in the field and in globular clusters. The model parameters can be mapped heuristically to the age and density of AGN disks. We estimate the extent to which different populations of mergers in AGNs can be distinguished. If most merging black holes are assembled in AGNs, future gravitational-wave observations may provide insights into the dynamics of AGN disks., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures

As active galactic nuclei (AGN) `turn on', some stars end up embedded in accretion disks around supermassive black holes (SMBHs) on retrograde orbits. Such stars experience strong headwinds, aerodynamic drag, ablation and orbital evolution on short timescales. Loss of orbital angular momentum in the first $\sim 0.1$~Myr of an AGN leads to a heavy rain of stars (`starfall') into the inner disk and onto the SMBH. A large AGN loss cone ($\theta_{\rm AGN,lc}$) can result from binary scatterings in the inner disk and yield tidal disruption events (TDEs). Signatures of starfall include optical/UV flares that rise in luminosity over time, particularly in the inner disk. If the SMBH mass is $M_{\rm SMBH} \ge 10^{8}M_{\odot}$, flares truncate abruptly and the star is swallowed. If $M_{\rm SMBH}<10^{8}M_{\odot}$, and if the infalling orbit lies within $\theta_{\rm AGN,lc}$, the flare is followed by a TDE which can be prograde or retrograde relative to the AGN inner disk. Retrograde AGN TDEs are over-luminous and short-lived as in-plane ejecta collide with the inner disk and a lower AGN state follows. Prograde AGN TDEs add angular momentum to inner disk gas and so start off looking like regular TDEs but are followed by an AGN high state. Searches for such flare signatures test models of AGN `turn on', SMBH mass, as well as disk properties and the embedded population., Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, MNRAS submitted

Galactic nuclei are promising sites for stellar origin black hole (BH) mergers, as part of merger hierarchies in deep potential wells. We show that binary black hole (BBH) merger rates in active galactic nuclei (AGN) should always exceed merger rates in quiescent galactic nuclei (nuclear star clusters, NSCs) around supermassive BHs (SMBHs) without accretion disks. This is primarily due to average binary lifetimes in AGN that are significantly shorter than in NSCs. The lifetime difference comes from rapid hardening of BBHs in AGN, such that their semi-major axes are smaller than the hard-soft boundary of their parent NSC; this contrasts with the large average lifetime to merger for BBHs in NSCs around SMBHs, due to binary ionization mechanisms. Secondarily, merger rates in AGNs are enhanced by gas-driven binary formation mechanisms. Formation of new BHs in AGN disks are a minor contributor to the rate differences. With the gravitational wave detection of several BBHs with at least one progenitor in the upper mass gap, and signatures of dynamical formation channels in the $\chi_{\rm eff}$ distribution, we argue that AGN could contribute $\sim 25\%-80\%$ of the LIGO-Virgo measured rate of $\sim 24 \rm{Gpc}^{-3} \rm{yr}^{-1}$., Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, submitted to MNRAS

Observations by LIGO--Virgo of binary black hole mergers suggest a possible anti-correlation between black hole mass ratio ($q=m_{2}/m_{1}$) and the effective inspiral spin parameter $\chi_{\rm eff}$, the mass-weighted spin projection onto the binary orbital angular momentum (Callister et al. 2021). We show that such an anti-correlation can naturally occur for binary black holes assembled in active galactic nuclei (AGN) due to spherical and planar symmetry-breaking effects. We describe a phenomenological model in which: 1) heavier black holes live in the AGN disk and tend to spin up into alignment with the disk; 2) lighter black holes with random spin orientations live in the nuclear spheroid; 3) the AGN disk is dense enough to rapidly capture a fraction of the spheroid component. but small in radial extent to limit the number of bulk disk mergers; 4) migration within the disk is non-uniform, likely disrupted by feedback from migrators or disk turbulence; 5) dynamical encounters in the disk are common and preferentially disrupt binaries that are retrograde around their center of mass, particularly at stalling orbits, or traps. This model may explain trends in LIGO--Virgo data while offering falsifiable predictions. Comparisons of predictions in ($q,\chi_{\rm eff}$) parameter space for the different channels may allow us to distinguish their fractional contributions to the observed merger rates., Comment: 7 pages, 4 Figures, MNRAS (submitted)

Wu & Peek (2020) predict SDSS-quality spectra based on Pan-STARRS broad-band \textit{grizy} images using machine learning (ML). In this letter, we test their prediction for a unique object, UGC 2885 ("Rubin's galaxy"), the largest and most massive, isolated disk galaxy in the local Universe ($D<100$ Mpc). After obtaining the ML predicted spectrum, we compare it to all existing spectroscopic information that is comparable to an SDSS spectrum of the central region: two archival spectra, one extracted from the VIRUS-P observations of this galaxy, and a new, targeted MMT/Binospec observation. Agreement is qualitatively good, though the ML prediction prefers line ratios slightly more towards those of an active galactic nucleus (AGN), compared to archival and VIRUS-P observed values. The MMT/Binospec nuclear spectrum unequivocally shows strong emission lines except H$\beta$, the ratios of which are consistent with AGN activity. The ML approach to galaxy spectra may be a viable way to identify AGN supplementing NIR colors. How such a massive disk galaxy ($M^* = 10^{11}$ M$_\odot$), which uncharacteristically shows no sign of interaction or mergers, manages to fuel its central AGN remains to be investigated., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, submitted to ApJL

Since 2015 the gravitational-wave observations of LIGO and Virgo have transformed our understanding of compact-object binaries. In the years to come, ground-based gravitational-wave observatories such as LIGO, Virgo, and their successors will increase in sensitivity, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-based LISA will provide gravitational-wave observations of massive black holes binaries. Between the $\sim 10$-$10^3~\mathrm{Hz}$ band of ground-based observatories and the $\sim10^{-4}$-$10^{-1}~\mathrm{Hz}$ band of LISA lies the uncharted decihertz gravitational-wave band. We propose a Decihertz Observatory to study this frequency range, and to complement observations made by other detectors. Decihertz observatories are well suited to observation of intermediate-mass ($\sim10^2$-$10^4 M_\odot$) black holes; they will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers and measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, and they will enable new tests of general relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Here we summarise how a Decihertz Observatory could provide unique insights into how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, improve prospects for both multimessenger astronomy and multiband gravitational-wave astronomy, and enable new probes of gravity, particle physics and cosmology., Comment: 13 pages, 1 figure. Published in Experimental Astronomy. Summarising white paper arXiv:1908.11375

Understanding common envelope (CE) evolution is an outstanding problem in binary evolution. Although the CE phase is not driven by gravitational-wave (GW) emission, the in-spiraling binary emits GWs that passively trace the CE dynamics. Detecting this GW signal would provide direct insight into the gas-driven physics. Even a non-detection might offer invaluable constraints. We investigate the prospects of detection of a Galactic CE by LISA. While the dynamical phase of the CE is likely sufficiently loud for detection, it is short and thus rare. We focus instead on the self-regulated phase that proceeds on a thermal timescale. Based on population synthesis calculations and the (unknown) signal duration in the LISA band, we expect $\sim 0.1-100$ sources in the Galaxy during the mission duration. We map the GW observable parameter space of frequency $f_\mathrm{GW}$ and its derivative $\dot f_\mathrm{GW}$ remaining agnostic on the specifics of the inspiral, and find that signals with $\mathrm{SNR}>10$ are possible if the CE stalls at separations such that $f_\mathrm{GW}\gtrsim2\times10^{-3}\,\mathrm{Hz}$. We investigate the possibility of misidentifying the signal with other known sources. If the second derivative $\ddot f_\mathrm{GW}$ can also be measured, the signal can be distinguished from other sources using a GW braking-index. Alternatively, coupling LISA with electromagnetic observations of peculiar red giant stars and/or infrared and optical transients might allow for the disentangling of a Galactic CE from other Galactic and extra-galactic GW sources., Comment: Accepted by ApJ -- author's version. Code available at: https://github.com/tcallister/LISA-and-CE-Evolution

AGN disks have been proposed as promising locations for the mergers of stellar mass black hole binaries (BBHs). Much recent work has been done on this merger channel, but the majority focuses on stellar mass black holes (BHs) orbiting in the prograde direction. Little work has been done to examine the impact of retrograde orbiters (ROs) on the formation and mergers of BBHs in AGN disks. Quantifying the retrograde contribution is important, since roughly half of all orbiters should initially be on retrograde orbits when the disk forms. We perform an analytic calculation of the evolution of ROs in an AGN disk. Because this evolution could cause the orbits of ROs to cross those of prograde BBHs, we derive the collision rate between a given RO and a given BBH orbiting in the prograde direction. In the examples given here, ROs in the inner region of the disk experience a rapid decrease in the semimajor axis of their orbits while also becoming highly eccentric in less than a million years. This rapid orbital evolution could lead to extreme mass ratio inspirals detectable by the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna. The collision rates of our example ROs with prograde BBHs in the migration trap depend strongly on the volume of the inner radiation-pressure-dominated region which depends on the mass of the supermassive black hole (SMBH). Rates are lowest for larger mass SMBHs, which dominate the AGN merger channel, suggesting that merger rates for this channel may not be significantly altered by ROs., Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, accepted to ApJL

We report the first plausible optical electromagnetic (EM) counterpart to a (candidate) binary black hole (BBH) merger. Detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), the EM flare is consistent with expectations for a kicked BBH merger in the accretion disk of an active galactic nucleus (AGN), and is unlikely ($

Active galactic nuclei (AGN) are powered by the accretion of disks of gas onto supermassive black holes (SMBHs). Stars and stellar remnants orbiting the SMBH in the nuclear star cluster (NSC) will interact with the AGN disk. Orbiters plunging through the disk experience a drag force and, through repeated passage, can have their orbits captured by the disk. A population of embedded objects in AGN disks may be a significant source of binary black hole mergers, supernovae, tidal disruption events and embedded gamma-ray bursts. For two representative AGN disk models we use geometric drag and Bondi-Hoyle-Littleton drag to determine the time to capture for stars and stellar remnants. We assume a range of initial inclination angles and semi-major axes for circular Keplerian prograde orbiters. Capture time strongly depends on the density and aspect ratio of the chosen disk model, the relative velocity of the stellar object with respect to the disk, and the AGN lifetime. We expect that for an AGN disk density $\rho \gtrsim 10^{-11}\rm g/cm^3$ and disk lifetime $\geq 1$Myr, there is a significant population of embedded stellar objects, which can fuel mergers detectable in gravitational waves with LIGO-Virgo and LISA., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS; 10 pages, 6 figures

The masses, rates, and spins of merging stellar-mass binary black holes (BBHs) detected by aLIGO and Virgo provide challenges to traditional BBH formation and merger scenarios. An active galactic nucleus (AGN) disk provides a promising additional merger channel, because of the powerful influence of the gas that drives orbital evolution, makes encounters dissipative, and leads to migration. Previous work showed that stellar mass black holes (sBHs) in an AGN disk migrate to regions of the disk, known as migration traps, where positive and negative gas torques cancel out, leading to frequent BBH formation. Here we build on that work by simulating the evolution of additional sBHs that enter the inner disk by either migration or inclination reduction. We also examine whether the BBHs formed in our models have retrograde or prograde orbits around their centers of mass with respect to the disk, determining the orientation, relative to the disk, of the spin of the merged BBHs. Orbiters entering the inner disk form BBHs with sBHs on resonant orbits near the migration trap. When these sBHs reach ~80 Msun, they form BBHs with sBHs in the migration trap, which over 10 Myr reach ~1000 Msun. We find 68% of the BBHs in our simulation orbit in the retrograde direction, which implies BBHs in our merger channel will have small dimensionless aligned spins, \chi_eff. Overall, our models produce BBHs that resemble both the majority of BBH mergers detected thus far (0.66 to 120 Gpc^-3 yr^-1 ) and two recent unusual detections, GW190412 (~0.3 Gpc^-3 yr^-1 ) and GW190521 (~0.1 Gpc^-3 yr^-1 )., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, accepted to ApJ

Advanced LIGO \& Advanced Virgo are detecting a large number of binary stellar origin black hole (BH) mergers. A promising channel for accelerated BH merger lies in active galactic nucleus (AGN) disks of gas around super-masssive black holes. Here we investigate the relative number of compact object mergers in AGN disk models, including BH, neutron stars (NS) and white dwarfs, via Monte Carlo simulations. We find the number of all merger types in the bulk disk grows $\propto t^{1/3}$ which is driven by the Hill sphere of the more massive merger component. Median mass ratios of NS-BH mergers in AGN disks are $\tilde{q}=0.07\pm 0.06(0.14\pm 0.07)$ for mass functions (MF) $M^{-1(-2)}$. If a fraction $f_{AGN}$ of the observed rate of BH-BH mergers (${\cal}{R}_{BH-BH}$) come from AGN, we expect a rate of NS-BH (NS-NS) mergers from the AGN channel of ${\cal}{R}_{BH-NS} \sim f_{AGN}[10,300]\rm{Gpc}^{-3} \rm{yr}^{-1}$,(${\cal}{R}_{NS-NS} \leq f_{AGN}400\rm{Gpc}^{-3} \rm{yr}^{-1}$). Allowing for the ratio of NS-NS/BH-BH LIGO search volumes, from preliminary O3 results we can rule out the AGN channel as a dominant contribution to observed NS-NS mergers. The number of lower mass gap events in this channel is a strong function of the nuclear MF and mass segregation efficiency. Compact object merger ratios derived from LIGO can restrict models of MF, mass segregation and populations embedded in AGN disks. The expected number of EM counterparts to NS-BH mergers in AGN disks at $z<1$ is $\sim [30,900]{\rm{yr}}^{-1}(f_{AGN}/0.1)$. EM searches for flaring due to embedded events in large AGN surveys will complement LIGO constraints on AGN models and the embedded populations that must live in them., Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, MNRAS (accepted)

We present analysis of Chandra X-ray observations of seven quasars that were identified as candidate sub-parsec binary supermassive black hole (SMBH) systems in the Catalina Real-Time Transient Survey (CRTS) based on apparent periodicity in their optical light curves. Simulations predict close-separation accreting SMBH binaries will have different X-ray spectra than single accreting SMBHs, including harder or softer X-ray spectra, ripple-like profiles in the Fe K-$\alpha$ line, and distinct peaks in the spectrum due to the separation of the accretion disk into a circumbinary disk and mini-disks around each SMBH. We obtained Chandra observations to test these models and assess whether these quasars could contain binary SMBHs. We instead find that the quasar spectra are all well fit by simple absorbed power law models, with the rest frame 2-10 keV photon indices, $\Gamma$, and the X-ray-to-optical power slopes, $\alpha_{\rm OX}$, indistinguishable from the larger quasar population. This may indicate that these seven quasars are not truly sub-parsec binary SMBH systems, or it may simply reflect that our sample size was too small to robustly detect any differences. Alternatively, the X-ray spectral changes might only be evident at higher energies than probed by Chandra. Given the available models and current data, no firm conclusions are drawn. These observations will help motivate and direct further work on theoretical models of binary SMBH systems, such as modeling systems with thinner accretion disks and larger binary separations.

We present the results of a multi-wavelength follow up campaign for the luminous nuclear transient Gaia16aax, which was first identified in January 2016. The transient is spatially consistent with the nucleus of an active galaxy at z=0.25, hosting a black hole of mass $\rm \sim6\times10^8M_\odot$. The nucleus brightened by more than 1 magnitude in the Gaia G-band over a timescale of less than one year, before fading back to its pre-outburst state over the following three years. The optical spectra of the source show broad Balmer lines similar to the ones present in a pre-outburst spectrum. During the outburst, the $\rm H\alpha$ and $\rm H\beta$ emission lines develop a secondary peak. We also report on the discovery of two transients with similar light curve evolution and spectra: Gaia16aka and Gaia16ajq. We consider possible scenarios to explain the observed outbursts. We exclude that the transient event could be caused by a microlensing event, variable dust absorption or a tidal encounter between a neutron star and a stellar mass black hole in the accretion disk. We consider variability in the accretion flow in the inner part of the disk, or a tidal disruption event of a star $\geq 1 M_{\odot}$ by a rapidly spinning supermassive black hole as the most plausible scenarios. We note that the similarity between the light curves of the three Gaia transients may be a function of the Gaia alerts selection criteria., Comment: 21 pages, 17 figure - accepted for publication in MNRAS main journal

We report on three redshift $z>2$ quasars with dramatic changes in their C IV emission lines, the first sample of changing-look quasars (CLQs) at high redshift. This is also the first time the changing-look behaviour has been seen in a high-ionisation emission line. SDSS J1205+3422, J1638+2827, and J2228+2201 show interesting behaviour in their observed optical light curves, and subsequent spectroscopy shows significant changes in the C IV broad emission line, with both line collapse and emergence being displayed on rest-frame timescales of $\sim$240-1640 days. These are rapid changes, especially when considering virial black hole mass estimates of $M_{\rm BH} > 10^{9} M_{\odot}$ for all three quasars. Continuum and emission line measurements from the three quasars show changes in the continuum-equivalent width plane with the CLQs seen to be on the edge of the full population distribution, and showing indications of an intrinsic Baldwin effect. We put these observations in context with recent state-change models, and note that even in their observed low-state, the C IV CLQs are generally above $\sim$5\% in Eddington luminosity., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables. All data, analysis code and text are fully available at: github.com/d80b2t/CIV_CLQs. Comments, questions and suggestions welcome and encouraged

The gravitational-wave astronomical revolution began in 2015 with LIGO's observation of the coalescence of two stellar-mass black holes. Over the coming decades, ground-based detectors like LIGO will extend their reach, discovering thousands of stellar-mass binaries. In the 2030s, the space-based LISA will enable gravitational-wave observations of the massive black holes in galactic centres. Between LISA and ground-based observatories lies the unexplored decihertz gravitational-wave frequency band. Here, we propose a Decihertz Observatory to cover this band, and complement observations made by other gravitational-wave observatories. The decihertz band is uniquely suited to observation of intermediate-mass ($\sim 10^2$-$10^4 M_\odot$) black holes, which may form the missing link between stellar-mass and massive black holes, offering a unique opportunity to measure their properties. Decihertz observations will be able to detect stellar-mass binaries days to years before they merge and are observed by ground-based detectors, providing early warning of nearby binary neutron star mergers, and enabling measurements of the eccentricity of binary black holes, providing revealing insights into their formation. Observing decihertz gravitational-waves also opens the possibility of testing fundamental physics in a new laboratory, permitting unique tests of general relativity and the Standard Model of particle physics. Overall, a Decihertz Observatory will answer key questions about how black holes form and evolve across cosmic time, open new avenues for multimessenger astronomy, and advance our understanding of gravitation, particle physics and cosmology., Comment: 52 pages, 5 figures, 4 tables. Submitted to Classical & Quantum Gravity. Based upon a white paper for ESA's Voyage 2050 on behalf of the LISA Consortium 2050 Task Force

Low ionization emission line regions (LINERs) are a heterogeneous collection of up to $1/3$ of galactic nuclei in the local Universe. It is unclear whether LINERs are simply the result of low accretion rates onto supermassive black holes or whether they include a large number of optically thick radiatively inefficient but super-Eddington accretion flows (RIAFs). Optically thick RIAFs are typically disks of large scale-height or quasi-spherical gas flows. These should be dense enough to trap and merge a large number of the stellar mass black holes, which we expect to exist in galactic nuclei. Electromagnetic observations of photospheres of accretion flows do not allow us to break model degeneracies. However, gravitational wave observations probe the interior of accretion flows where the merger of stellar mass black holes can be greatly accelerated over the field rate. Here we show that the upper limits on the rate of black hole mergers observed with LIGO demonstrate that most LINERs cannot be optically thick RIAFs., Comment: 6 pages, 1 Figure, MNRAS Letters (submitted)

Accretion disks around supermassive black holes are promising sites for stellar mass black hole mergers detectable with LIGO. Here we present the results of Monte-Carlo simulations of black hole mergers within 1-d AGN disk models. For the spin distribution in the disk bulk, key findings are: (1) The distribution of $\chi_{\rm eff}$ is naturally centered around $\tilde{\chi}_{\rm eff} \approx 0.0$, (2) the width of the $\chi_{\rm eff}$ distribution is narrow for low natal spins. For the mass distribution in the disk bulk, key findings are: (3) mass ratios $\tilde{q} \sim 0.5-0.7$, (4) the maximum merger mass in the bulk is $\sim 100-200M_{\odot}$, (5) $\sim 1\%$ of bulk mergers involve BH $>50M_{\odot}$ with (6) $\simeq 80\%$ of bulk mergers are pairs of 1st generation BH. Additionally, mergers at a migration trap grow an IMBH with typical merger mass ratios $\tilde{q}\sim 0.1$. Ongoing LIGO non-detections of black holes $>10^{2}M_{\odot}$ puts strong limits on the presence of migration traps in AGN disks (and therefore AGN disk density and structure) as well as median AGN disk lifetime. The highest merger rate occurs for this channel if AGN disks are relatively short-lived ($\leq 1$Myr) so multiple AGN episodes can happen per Galactic nucleus in a Hubble time., Comment: 14 pages, 15 Figs., MNRAS accepted

In this paper, we continue our study on the evolution of black holes (BHs) that receive velocity kicks at the origin of their host star cluster potential. We now focus on BHs in rotating clusters that receive a range of kick velocities in different directions with respect to the rotation axis. We perform N-body simulations to calculate the trajectories of the kicked BHs and develop an analytic framework to study their motion as a function of the host cluster and the kick itself. Our simulations indicate that for a BH that is kicked outside of the cluster's core, as its orbit decays in a rotating cluster the BH will quickly gain angular momentum as it interacts with stars with high rotational frequencies. Once the BH decays to the point where its orbital frequency equals that of local stars, its orbit will be circular and dynamical friction becomes ineffective since local stars will have low relative velocities. After circularization, the BH's orbit decays on a longer timescale than if the host cluster was not rotating. Hence BHs in rotating clusters will have longer orbital decay times. The timescale for orbit circularization depends strongly on the cluster's rotation rate and the initial kick velocity, with kicked BHs in slowly rotating clusters being able to decay into the core before circularization occurs. The implication of the circularization phase is that the probability of a BH undergoing a tidal capture event increases, possibly aiding in the formation of binaries and high-mass BHs., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Accretion disks around supermassive black holes (SMBH) are promising sites for stellar mass black hole (BH) mergers due to mass segregation and merger acceleration by disk gas torques. Here we show that a GW-kick at BH merger causes ram-pressure stripping of gas within the BH Hill sphere. If $R_{H}\geq H$, the disk height, an off-center UV flare at $a_{\rm BH} \sim 10^{3}r_{g}$ emerges within $t_{\rm UV} \sim \rm{O}(2 {\rm days})(a_{\rm BH}/10^{3}r_{g})(M_{\rm SMBH}/10^{8}M_{\odot})(v_{\rm kick}/10^{2}\rm{km/s})$ post-merger and lasts O$(R_{H}/v_{\rm kick}) \sim \rm{O}(5 t_{\rm UV}$). The flare emerges with luminosity O($10^{42}{\rm erg/s})(t_{\rm UV}/2{\rm days})^{-1}(M_{\rm Hill}/1M_{\odot})(v_{\rm kick}/10^{2}{\rm km/s})^{2}$. AGN optical/UV photometry alters and asymmetric broad emission line profiles can develop after weeks. If $R_{H}50M_{\odot}$., Comment: 5pages, 2 figures, ApJL (accepted)

We present the results of a systematic search for quasars in the Catalina Real-time Transient Survey exhibiting both strong photometric and spectroscopic variability over a decadal baseline. We identify 73 sources with specific patterns of optical and mid-IR photometric behavior and a defined spectroscopic change. These "Changing-State" quasars (CSQs) form a higher luminosity sample to complement existing sets of "Changing-Look" AGN and quasars in the literature. The CSQs (by selection) exhibit larger photometric variability than the CLQs. The spectroscopic variability is marginally stronger in the CSQs than CLQs as defined by the change in H$\beta$/[OIII] ratio. We find 36 sources with declining H$\beta$ flux, 37 sources with increasing H$\beta$ flux and discover seven sources with $z > 0.8$, further extending the redshift arm. Our CSQ sample compares to the literature CLQ objects in similar distributions of H$\beta$ flux ratios and differential Eddington ratios between high (bright) and low (dim) states. Taken as a whole, we find that this population of extreme varying quasars is associated with changes in the Eddington ratio and the timescales imply cooling/heating fronts propagating through the disk., Comment: 43 pages, 22 figures, submitted

The conventional view of stellar-mass binary black hole (sBBH) mergers is that there should not be enough matter present to produce a detectable electromagnetic transient. However, there ARE a number of mechanisms for producing such a counterpart through accretion of matter from various reserves, charged black holes, or interactions with magnetic or exotic fields. After reviewing these mechanisms, we describe what we can learn from multi-messenger observations of sBBH mergers in the areas of stellar evolution and compact binary formation, cosmological measurements, searches for charged black holes, and tests of general relativity and fundamental physics. We end with some remarks about the need to support both observing capabilities and modeling in the next decade and beyond., Comment: A science white paper submitted to Astro2020; this version with additional endorsers and a few small additions to the text

The stellar mass binary black hole (sBBH) mergers presently detected by LIGO may originate wholly or in part from binary black hole mergers embedded in disks of gas around supermassive black holes. Determining the contribution of these active galactic nucleus (AGN) disks to the sBBH merger rate enables us to uniquely measure important parameters of AGN disks, including their typical density, aspect ratio, and lifetime, thereby putting unique limits on an important element of galaxy formation. For the first time, gravitational waves will allow us to reveal the properties of the hidden interior of AGN disks, while electromagnetic radiation (EM) probes the disk photosphere. The localization of sBBH merger events from LIGO is generally insufficient for association with a single EM counterpart. However, the contribution to the LIGO event rate from rare source types (such as AGNs) can be determined on a statistical basis. To determine the contribution to the sBBH rate from AGNs in the next decade requires: {\em 1) a complete galaxy catalog for the LIGO search volume, 2) strategic multi-wavelength EM follow-up of LIGO events and 3) significant advances in theoretical understanding of AGN disks and the behavior of objects embedded within them.}, Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, Astro2020 Decadal Survey white paper

Electromagnetic observations of the sky have been the basis for our study of the Universe for millennia, cosmic ray studies are now entering their second century, the first neutrinos from an astrophysical source were identified three decades ago, and gravitational waves were directly detected only four years ago. Detections of these messengers are now common. Astrophysics will undergo a revolution in the 2020s as multimessenger detections become routine. The 8th Astro2020 Thematic Area is Multimessenger Astronomy and Astrophysics, which includes the identification of the sources of gravitational waves, astrophysical and cosmogenic neutrinos, cosmic rays, and gamma-rays, and the coordinated multimessenger and multiwavelength follow-ups. Identifying and characterizing multimessenger sources enables science throughout and beyond astrophysics. Success in the multimessenger era requires: (i) sensitive coverage of the non-electromagnetic messengers, (ii) full coverage of the electromagnetic spectrum, with either fast-response observations or broad and deep high-cadence surveys, and (iii) improved collaboration, communication, and notification platforms., Comment: Astro2020 White Paper for the 8th Thematic Area of Multimessenger Astronomy and Astrophysics