Search

We use a stochastic approach to assess the returns from blueberry production regarding observed blueberry price and yield variability. We extend the deterministic budget to stochastic by using triangular distribution and using Monte Carlo simulations. We use net present value (NPV) to assess and compare the returns. We observed disparity in the expected NPVs from two budget systems, and the chance of getting positive NPV studied under the stochastic budget was too low (23.85%–30.24%). This result shows the need for a stochastic approach to analyze growers’ profit, which helps making investment decisions. Moreover, this study is useful for farmers and farm risk analyzers.

Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV), transmitted by whiteflies, is a major threat to tomato production worldwide (Moriones and Navas-Castillo, 2000; Lefeuvre et al., 2010). Yield losses up to 100% in affected fields are common (Rakib et al., 2011; Pan et al., 2012; Wu et al., 2012). This study investigates the economic productivity and profitability of treatment for TYLCV management. The economic models adopted for this study include farm enterprise budgeting, sensitivity analysis, and break-even analysis. Results show that total preharvest variable cost was $4,200/acre and the expected net return of $1,958/acre was attainable 50% of the time.

Demand for organic food has increased tremendously over the last decade in the United States. In the Southeast, high demand for organic food has sparked interest in organic production techniques among conventional vegetable growers and put increasing demand on existing organic growers. However, little information is available on profitable organic vegetable crops suitable for the region. This study analyzes crop rotation systems for high-value, cool-season vegetables to develop production and economic models to help growers increase profit and reduce risk.

Income diversification constitutes an important livelihood strategy for rural households in developing countries in general and Sub-Saharan Africa in particular. Using data collected by the World Bank in rural Kenya, the estimated results from the bivariate and 2SLS models show that the average partial effects of remittances on activity choices indicate that household propensity to seek non-cropping income was higher for households with external remittances than those with internal remittances. In addition, poor households diversified less than better-off households, implying that diversification is viewed more as a means of wealth accumulation than a survival strategy in this part of Kenya.

Agriculture accounts for 17% of total Bangladeshi GDP. Bananas represent 20% of all fruits crops produced in Bangladesh, with a domestic market share of 36%. This study analyzes banana production, marketing, distribution, and value chain functions and relationships. The study focused on the major banana producing area of Bangladesh. Our results show that the major problems are lack of good agricultural practices, which affects overall quality, distribution, and marketing of this important fruit.

With 29.7 million tons per annum, India produces 20% of world banana production. Despite this success, the country is not ranked as either a major or a minor banana exporting country. The goal of this exploratory research was to evaluate the banana sector in the banana producing areas of Kolkata, West Bengal State of India, in order to identify possible strengths and weaknesses that might impact the complete banana value chain (VC). We found major problems in the complete value chain, including production, transportation, distribution, marketing, and overall quality.

Muscadine (Vitis rotundifolia), also known as wild grapes are native to the Southeastern United States and well adapted to the warm and humid conditions of the region. Georgia is the largest producer of mscadine grapes in the United States and has enjoyed a market niche for decades consisting of fresh fruit processed for jams, juice and wine. In recent years, precision breeding using cisgenic technology has allow the development of new disease-resistant and seedless cultivars with potentials to serve different end-use market segments. However, the profitability of muscadine grapes cultivars newly developed with cisgenic technology relative to those developed with traditional transgenic technology is still questionable. This study takes a first step in bridging the gap in the literative with the objective to estimate the costs, revenue and profitability of producing transgenic-bred muscadine grapes in Georgia using a Single Trellis System with drip irrigation. Subsequently, we plan to derive similiar estimates for a new cisgenicbred rot resistant and seedless counterpart, currently in field trials, and compare both estimates to determine which of the two has the highest economic potentials in term of profitability and or net returns to the growers.

Remittances are viewed by the new economics of labor migration theory as a substitute for formal or informal credit that may enable households to overcome liquidity constraints and invest in new technologies and activities. To test this hypothesis, this paper analyzes the impact of migration and remittances on the adoption of modern agricultural technologies in rural Senegal. Survey data were analyzed using a three stage least squared model. The results reveal that both internal and international migrations have a positive impact on the adoption of new technologies. However, only households with international remittances were more likely to adopt modern technologies

There has been significant shifts in both international and domestic demand for U.S tree nuts over the past decade with potentially mixed effects for U.S producers and consumers. This paper investigates short run and long run dynamics in the domestic demand for six brands of tree nuts (pecan, almonds, walnuts, macadamias, pistachios and hazelnuts) using annual time series data for utilization and value. A static and a dynamic Almost Ideal Demand system (AIDS) was estimated with Seemingly Unrelated Regression. We analyzed consumers responsiveness to price and expenditure using parameters derived from the model

The magnitude of basis risk between Actual Production History (APH) and Group Risk Plan (GRP) contracts across corn farms in Illinois counties is estimated using pseudo-simulated yields with farm specific geospatial climate data. A two-step hierarchical Bayes small area estimator was used to address problems related to lack of representative sample, aggrega- tion bias, properly accounting for spatial and temporal heterogeneity and uncertainty in parameter estimates. We found wide variation in expected basis risk across farms within and between counties. Expected basis risk was found to sharply increase under APH plans with higher coverage levels.

We estimate a distance function of grains production using generalized method of moments that enables us to accommodate multiple outputs of farmers as well as address the endogeneity issues that are related with the use of distance functions for multi-output production. Using a panel data set of Ethiopian subsistence farmers, we find that the most important factors determining farmers' efficiency in Ethiopia are having access to the public extension system, participation in off-farm activities, participation in labor sharing arrangements, gender of the household head, and the extent to which farmers are forced to produce on marginal and steeply sloped plots. Average farmers in Ethiopia are producing less than 60% of the most efficient farmers. Annual technical change between 1999 and 2004 is about one percent while annual efficiency change during the same period is insignificant.

Almost a quarter of all U.S. children are food insecure. Regionally, the South has the highest rates of childhood food insecurity followed by the West, Midwest, and Northeast. This research analyzes factors associated with childhood food insecurity as reflected by National School Lunch Program participation rates using county-level data during 2006 and 2008. Results indicate that median household income and the unemployment rate are significant explanatory variables of childhood food insecurity, before and during the recession. Other explanatory factors include education, direct farm sales, metro and non-metro classification, and ethnicity. These results have broad policy implications for alleviating childhood food insecurity.

The Quadratic AIDS model was estimated to analyze the U.S. fruit consumption using annual per capita consumption data and prices for a demand system consisting of fresh fruit, fruit juice and other processed fruit. All Marshallian own price elasticities are found to be negative and the demand system is dominated by complementarity relationships. Both own and cross price Marshallian elasticities are less than one. Fruit juices are found to be expenditure elastic conditional on the total expenditure on fruits while fresh fruits and other processed fruits are found to be expenditure inelastic. However, fresh fruit is close to being unitary expenditure elastic. After allowing for curvature in the Engel function, U.S. fresh fruit demand is found to be more responsive to changes in income than in previous studies.

The paper uses a stochastic frontier analysis of production functions to estimate the level of technical efficiency in agriculture for a panel of 29 developing countries in Africa and Asia between 1994 and 2000. In addition, the paper examines how different components of an agricultural innovation system interact to determine the estimated technical inefficiencies. Results show that the mean level of technical efficiency among the sampled countries was about 86 percent, with some modest increases during the period in question. These results suggest that there is room for significant increases of production through reallocations of existing resources. Despite significant variation among countries, these results also indicate quite a number of least developed countries have high mean efficiency scores, implying a need to focus on investment that pushes the production frontier outward in these countries. Several measures of agricultural R&D achievement and intensity, along with educational enrollment, are found to enhance agricultural efficiency. On the other hand, countries with higher levels of official development assistance, foreign direct investment, and a greater share of land under irrigation are found to be performing poorly in their agricultural efficiency score.

Management of tomato-spotted wilt virus is complex and requires more than one treatment for near optimum results. We investigated tomato and pepper growers’ perception on the effectiveness of tactics using Bayesian Logistic regression. The perceived chance that each tactics will control the disease was about a coin toss.

Obtaining reliable estimates of insurance premiums is a critical step in risk sharing and risk transfer necessary to ensure solvency and continuity in crop insurance programs. Challenges encountered in the estimation include dealing with aggregation bias from using county level yield averages as well as properly accounting for spatial and temporal heterogeneity. In this study, we associate some of these challenges as classical small area estimation (SAE) problems. We employ a hierarchical Bayes (HB) SAE to obtain design consistent expected county level yields and Group Risk Plan (GRP) premiums for corm farms in Illinois using quasi-simulated data. Preliminary results show little bias (< 10%) in estimated expected county yields in several counties investigated. We found wide variation in GRP, APH and basis risk across counties for similar level of coverage and scale. Results show that farmers could lower their GRP premiums by as much as 30% by carefully choosing a coverage level and scale combination.

We estimate a dynamic version of an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model for U.S.A. imports of fresh tropical fruits: bananas, pineapples, avocadoes, papayas, mangoes/guavas, grapes and other fresh fruit imports. An error correction model specification is justified after unit root and cointegration test results confirm nonstationarity and cointegration of the data. Estimated income elasticities show that fresh grapes and other fresh fruit imports appear to be considered luxury commodities. All own-price elasticities were negative and significant. While imported bananas, pineapples, U.S.A. grapes and other fresh fruit were quite inelastic, demand for papayas and mangoes/guavas were elastic. Fresh fruits that are shown to be complementary to imported fruits include bananas, imported grapes, U.S.A. grapes and avocados, and imported avocados/other fresh fruits. Key

Melons constitute an important part of the U.S. fruit and vegetable industry even though they are produced only from May through December of each year. Import supplies from Latin American countries are used to make up for the domestic demand shortages. This paper investigates the U.S. demand for imported fresh and frozen melons using quarterly data on import volumes and unit prices. A static and a dynamic linear approximated almost ideal demand systems were estimated using ITSUR. Marshallian and Hicksian elasticities were used to analyze consumers’ responsiveness to price and income change in the short run and the long run.

Although this paper focuses on apple juice, a restricted version of source differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System (RSDAIDS) was used to examine U.S. import demand for fresh apple, apple juice and other processed apple. Apple imports were differentiated by type and source of origin and the RSDAIDS model was estimated after imposing the general demand restrictions of adding-up, homogeneity and slutsky symmetry. Seasonality and trend variables were also included on the model. The estimation results showed that U.S. demand for apple juice from China was price inelastic with relatively high expenditure elasticity. We believe the result partially explains why China managed to have a 60 percent import market share in the sub-market despite U.S. imposition of high duties on Chinese apple juice.

U.S. banana demand differentiated by country of origin is estimated using the generalized dynamic Rotterdam model. Results indicate that dynamic factors play a significant role in determining the allocation of U.S. banana expenditures across exporting sources. Of particular interest is Guatemala’s increased share and Costa Rica’s decreased share of U.S. banana supply. A number of factors explained why Guatemala replaced Costa Rica as the leading U.S. supplier in 2007. (1) Guatemala is the least expensive source on average. (2) Habit persistence, adjustment costs, and other dynamic factors favor Guatemala’s exports. (3) Given increases in the relative price of Costa Rica’s bananas, the price competition between Costa Rica and Guatemala is highly significant. (4) Bananas from Costa Rica are highly responsive to own-price while imports from Guatemala are more price-inelastic. (5) Heavy rains and fluctuating temperatures in Costa Rica have decreased banana production and exports.

Researchers have been conducting trials on the potential of banana production at various locations in Savannah, Georgia since 2003. In 2009, new banana research was initiated at the University of Georgia, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences. Tifton Campus. This research has identified several cultivars with cold hardiness capabilities and a short-cycle cultivar, 'Veinte Cohol' that has potential to become a specialty commercial crop in addition to several other fruits that are produced in the state. This paper addresses the growth performance and productive cycle of the Veinte Cohol cultivar and its economic potential as a commercial crop.

Blueberries are experiencing a major increase in acreage in Georgia and the Southeast region. The demand for blueberry crop budgets is at an all-time high. Due to the world economic crisis, agricultural input prices are constantly fluctuating. The increase or decrease in input prices has a direct impact on productivity and profitability of blueberries. Unfortunately, the existing blueberry economic analyses in Georgia are outdated. The prices Georgia farmers receive given the existing market window for fresh rabbiteye and frozed blueberries have also been unstable. Since 2005 when the last economic analysis using enterprise budgets was developed, there have been huge changes in terms of input prices, agricultural practices, and production technologies. Consequently there is a high demand from stakeholders for new studies, as they provide marketing and price guidance and projected production costs in this rapidly growing industry. This study summarizes the resources and estimates current costs associated with producing blueberries in Georgia.

Prevalence of local foods is believed to answer several food issues one of which is health and nutrition. This study focused on the on the availability of local foods to consumers and see its relationship with two specific diet-related diseases namely, obesity and diabetes. Other variables were included in the analysis to provide additional evidence to previous findings. Factors considered are divided into 5 groups namely diet-, local food-, environment-, education- and gender-related factors. Diet- and environment-related variables provide the most perceptive findings while local food variables provided significant however weak evidence of positive impacts to health and nutrition.

Farm labor and immigration are controversial topics. Legislation at the federal and state levels is either pending or is being implemented, and will affect not only the availability of labor for harvesting food horticulture and servicing environmental horticulture as well as the otherwise impacted industries of construction, education, food service, entertainment and tourism. The background, situation and outlook for labor in the Georgia and national food horticulture arena, especially for the labor intensive harvesting of fresh produce, is presented, as is a similar diagnosis of the labor for environmental horticulture and other food and fiber agribusiness-related sectors in Georgia.

A source-differentiated Almost Ideal Demand System model is used to analyze U.S. demand for the major tropical fresh fruit imports from different countries of origin. The tropical fresh fruits chosen for analysis include fresh bananas, fresh pineapples, papayas, and mangoes/guavas. To address endogeneity problem, we utilized an iterative 3SLS estimation method. Results show that consumer incomes are a major determinant of tropical fresh fruit import demand and most of the tropical fresh fruit imports are luxury commodities. U.S. consumers have a preference for Guatemalan and Costa Rican bananas, Costa Rican and Honduras pineapples, and Ecuador and Mexican mangoes. A competitive relationship exists between bananas from Ecuador and Colombia, Ecuador and Costa Rica, Costa Rica, and Ecuador and bananas in general face competition from the other tropical fresh fruits, particularly from most pineapple and mango sources, and all the other fresh fruit imports. Based on the study findings, the countries of origin could determine how they could increase their products market share in the U.S. and likely impact of price changes of their commodity. For example, Mexico could utilize price competition strategies to retain and regain its declining U.S. mango market share.

With the goal of looking for the best fumigant substitute not only effective to production yield but more importantly to profitability and its excellent corresponding mulching option, this study used the complete factorial treatment analysis approach. Seven fumigant options and four mulching alternatives were included in the study and results showed that 1,3-dichloropropene plus chloropicrin and metam sodium (TELPICVAP) and smooth low density black on black polyethylene mulch (METAL) are the most profitable fumigant and mulch option.

Scientists at the University of Georgia have been conducting research on the potential of banana production at the Bamboo Farm and Coastal Gardens, Savannah, since 2003. Banana research has now been extended and for the first time is being carried out at the University of Georgia, College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, Tifton Campus, located in the south-central part of the state in a more temperate climatic zone. The State of Georgia pro­duces many fruits such as apples, blueberries, strawberries, blackberries, grapes and peaches, but banana has never been considered an economic crop due to unfavorable weather conditions, which has rendered the U.S. a net importer of this nutritionally important crop. In Tifton, 63 different cultivars obtained from three different sources-Belgium, Puerto Rico, and Florida-were planted in an experiment using a randomized complete block design. The principal objective is to evaluate which of these cultivars will be suitable for fruit production under Tifton weather conditions. All aspects of agricultural production will be investigated and good agricultural practices (GAP) will be developed to facilitate production of this important fruit crop.

Recent trend depicts that tomatoes and tomatoes products rank 2nd most important vegetable crop in the United States after potatoes and potatoes products contributing 20 percent of total vegetable production. More-so, tomato is equally ranked 2nd in the United States in terms of production value, generating $1.3 billion after head lettuce that contributed $1.4 billion in the same time period. In 2006, 422,000 acres of tomatoes were planted in the United States. Tomato is equally an important economic crop in the state of Georgia. In 2008, it ranked 14th in the Georgia vegetable acreage as 3,985 acres were planted. It also ranked 6th in terms of farm gate value in the same time period generating $51.2 million. Thrips-vectored tomato spotted wilt virus (TSWV) is a serious disease capable of causing damages to the plant, fruits, quality and reducing yields drastically. Managing TSWV can be complex. For instance, metalized UV-mulch may significantly reduce TSWV, but delay tomato maturity, potentially affecting price and market window. Also, resistant tomato lines may eliminate damages due to TSWV, but could have negative horticultural attributes that standard TSWV-susceptible hybrids do not. TSWV can induce irregular ripening in fruit after packing, affecting post harvest costs. This study is aimed at providing the optimal return per unit of enterprise using cost and benefit estimates of the combination of available inputs used in the various management strategies. Thereafter, the result of the differentially developed techniques and risk-rated cost and benefit budgets will be used to determine which of the risk-rated thrips, TSWV and IPM decision criteria would provide superior pareto-optimal economic and financial benefit to tomato growers

Increased promotion and awareness of healthy diets has contributed to growth in demand for fresh fruits and vegetables, for which the United States has become increasingly more dependent on imports. A modified LA/AIDS model captured seasonality and the effects of trade policy for select U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable imports from 1989 through 2008. The introduction of NAFTA significantly increased expenditure shares for papayas, tomatoes, and peppers, but it negatively influenced budget shares for bananas and pineapples. Fresh fruits and vegetables, except bananas, showed a positive trend in import budget shares, and seasonality was significant for all the commodities.

Smallholder producers of fruits and vegetables in the Nanggung sub-district of West Java, Indonesia practice a multicropping system of agriculture on less than two acres of land. Agricultural practices in this area are still crude, with little or no inputs such as fertilization or modern irrigation. When water is available, the furrow irrigation system is used at best. Although banana is one of the income-generating crops, farmers grow it in combination with other fruits such as durian, mangosteen, rambutan, jackfruit, and with vegetables such as chili peppers, tomatoes, sweet corn, and green beans under non-intensive management. Although market-survey reports show that the demand for these fruits and vegetables is greater than the supply, the farmers not only have limited access to markets but produce inferior quality and limited quantity (Fonsah 2003). Due to these limitations, this study is aimed at developing new markets, creating new distribution systems and market channels, and seeks ways to improve those already existing.