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1. Uncertainty in land-use adaptation persists despite crop model projections showing lower impacts under high warming

Author

Molina Bacca, Edna J., Stevanović, Miodrag, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Karstens, Kristine, Chen, David Meng-Chuen, Leip, Debbora, Müller, Christoph, Minoli, Sara, Heinke, Jens, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Folberth, Christian, Iizumi, Toshichika, Jain, Atul K., Liu, Wenfeng, Okada, Masashi, Smerald, Andrew, Zabel, Florian, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, and Popp, Alexander

Published
2023
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4. The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Cinner, Joshua E, Caldwell, Iain, Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L, Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D, Everett, Jason D, Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G, Heneghan, Ryan F, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Oliver, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M, Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P, Wamukota, Andrew, and Pollnac, Richard

Subjects
Climate Action, Zero Hunger
Abstract

Abstract: Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, and when they are, it is often at a national scale, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries. Our study reveals three key findings: First, we find that the overall potential losses to fisheries is higher than potential losses to agriculture, but there is substantial within-country variability. Second, while more than two-thirds of locations will bear a double burden of potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing a double burden. Third, lower socioeconomic status communities are more likely to experience potential impacts than higher socioeconomic status communities.

Published
2022

5. Long-term soil organic carbon and crop yield feedbacks differ between 16 soil-crop models in sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Couëdel, Antoine, Falconnier, Gatien N., Adam, Myriam, Cardinael, Rémi, Boote, Kenneth, Justes, Eric, Smith, Ward N., Whitbread, Anthony M., Affholder, François, Balkovic, Juraj, Basso, Bruno, Bhatia, Arti, Chakrabarti, Bidisha, Chikowo, Regis, Christina, Mathias, Faye, Babacar, Ferchaud, Fabien, Folberth, Christian, Akinseye, Folorunso M., Gaiser, Thomas, Galdos, Marcelo V., Gayler, Sebastian, Gorooei, Aram, Grant, Brian, Guibert, Hervé, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Kamali, Bahareh, Laub, Moritz, Maureira, Fidel, Mequanint, Fasil, Nendel, Claas, Porter, Cheryl H., Ripoche, Dominique, Ruane, Alex C., Rusinamhodzi, Leonard, Sharma, Shikha, Singh, Upendra, Six, Johan, Srivastava, Amit, Vanlauwe, Bernard, Versini, Antoine, Vianna, Murilo, Webber, Heidi, Weber, Tobias K.D., Zhang, Congmu, and Corbeels, Marc

Published
2024
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6. Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Cinner, Joshua E, Caldwell, Iain R, Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia L, Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler D, Everett, Jason D, Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina G, Heneghan, Ryan F, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen M, Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek P, Wamukota, Andrew, and Pollnac, Richard

Subjects
Climate Action, Zero Hunger, Agriculture, Climate Change, Fisheries, Indonesia, Madagascar
Abstract

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Published
2022

9. Substantial Differences in Crop Yield Sensitivities Between Models Call for Functionality‐Based Model Evaluation

Author

Müller, Christoph, primary, Jägermeyr, Jonas, additional, Franke, James A., additional, Ruane, Alex C., additional, Balkovic, Juraj, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Dury, Marie, additional, Falloon, Pete, additional, Folberth, Christian, additional, Hank, Tobias, additional, Hoffmann, Munir, additional, Izaurralde, R. Cesar, additional, Jacquemin, Ingrid, additional, Khabarov, Nikolay, additional, Liu, Wenfeng, additional, Olin, Stefan, additional, Pugh, Thomas A. M., additional, Wang, Xuhui, additional, Williams, Karina, additional, Zabel, Florian, additional, and Elliott, Joshua W., additional

Published
2024
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12. Climate impacts on global agriculture emerge earlier in new generation of climate and crop models

Author

Jägermeyr, Jonas, Müller, Christoph, Ruane, Alex C., Elliott, Joshua, Balkovic, Juraj, Castillo, Oscar, Faye, Babacar, Foster, Ian, Folberth, Christian, Franke, James A., Fuchs, Kathrin, Guarin, Jose R., Heinke, Jens, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Iizumi, Toshichika, Jain, Atul K., Kelly, David, Khabarov, Nikolay, Lange, Stefan, Lin, Tzu-Shun, Liu, Wenfeng, Mialyk, Oleksandr, Minoli, Sara, Moyer, Elisabeth J., Okada, Masashi, Phillips, Meridel, Porter, Cheryl, Rabin, Sam S., Scheer, Clemens, Schneider, Julia M., Schyns, Joep F., Skalsky, Rastislav, Smerald, Andrew, Stella, Tommaso, Stephens, Haynes, Webber, Heidi, Zabel, Florian, and Rosenzweig, Cynthia

Published
2021
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14. A regional nuclear conflict would compromise global food security

Author

Jägermeyr, Jonas, Robock, Alan, Elliott, Joshua, Müller, Christoph, Xia, Lili, Khabarov, Nikolay, Folberth, Christian, Schmid, Erwin, Liu, Wenfeng, Zabel, Florian, Rabin, Sam S., Puma, Michael J., Heslin, Alison, Franke, James, Foster, Ian, Asseng, Senthold, Bardeen, Charles G., Toon, Owen B., and Rosenzweig, Cynthia

Published
2020

15. Strong regional influence of climatic forcing datasets on global crop model ensembles

Author

Ruane, Alex C., Phillips, Meridel, Müller, Christoph, Elliott, Joshua, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Arneth, Almut, Balkovic, Juraj, Deryng, Delphine, Folberth, Christian, Iizumi, Toshichika, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Khabarov, Nikolay, Lawrence, Peter, Liu, Wenfeng, Olin, Stefan, Pugh, Thomas A.M., Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Sakurai, Gen, Schmid, Erwin, Sultan, Benjamin, Wang, Xuhui, de Wit, Allard, and Yang, Hong

Published
2021
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16. Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario

Author

Orlov, Anton, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Müller, Christoph, Daloz, Anne Sophie, Zabel, Florian, Minoli, Sara, Liu, Wenfeng, Lin, Tzu-Shun, Jain, Atul K., Folberth, Christian, Okada, Masashi, Poschlod, Benjamin, Smerald, Andrew, Schneider, Julia M., and Sillmann, Jana

Abstract

Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a new generation of global climate and crop models to drive a multiregional economic model. We find that, even under a high-emission scenario, the effect of CO2fertilization could lead to higher yields, resulting in lower prices for major crops, except for maize. However, heat-induced losses in agricultural labor could offset the potential economic benefits of CO2fertilization in crop production in Asia and Africa. Our findings emphasize the importance of addressing heat-stress impacts on agricultural labor through proactive adaptation measures.

Published
2024
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18. Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Author

Wang, Xuhui, Müller, Christoph, Elliot, Joshua, Mueller, Nathaniel D., Ciais, Philippe, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Gerber, James, Dumas, Patrice, Wang, Chenzhi, Yang, Hui, Li, Laurent, Deryng, Delphine, Folberth, Christian, Liu, Wenfeng, Makowski, David, Olin, Stefan, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Reddy, Ashwan, Schmid, Erwin, Jeong, Sujong, Zhou, Feng, and Piao, Shilong

Published
2021
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19. Innovation can accelerate the transition towards a sustainable food system

Author

Herrero, Mario, Thornton, Philip K., Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Palmer, Jeda, Benton, Tim G., Bodirsky, Benjamin L., Bogard, Jessica R., Hall, Andrew, Lee, Bernice, Nyborg, Karine, Pradhan, Prajal, Bonnett, Graham D., Bryan, Brett A., Campbell, Bruce M., Christensen, Svend, Clark, Michael, Cook, Mathew T., de Boer, Imke J. M., Downs, Chris, Dizyee, Kanar, Folberth, Christian, Godde, Cecile M., Gerber, James S., Grundy, Michael, Havlik, Petr, Jarvis, Andrew, King, Richard, Loboguerrero, Ana Maria, Lopes, Mauricio A., McIntyre, C. Lynne, Naylor, Rosamond, Navarro, Javier, Obersteiner, Michael, Parodi, Alejandro, Peoples, Mark B., Pikaar, Ilje, Popp, Alexander, Rockström, Johan, Robertson, Michael J., Smith, Pete, Stehfest, Elke, Swain, Steve M., Valin, Hugo, van Wijk, Mark, van Zanten, Hannah H. E., Vermeulen, Sonja, Vervoort, Joost, and West, Paul C.

Published
2020
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21. Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments

Author

Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C., Antle, John, Elliott, Joshua, Ashfaq, Muhammad, Chatta, Ashfaq Ahmad, Ewert, Frank, Folberth, Christian, Hathie, Ibrahima, Havlik, Petr, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, MacCarthy, Dilys S., Mason-D’Croz, Daniel, Contreras, Erik Mencos, Müller, Christoph, Perez-Dominguez, Ignacio, Phillips, Meridel, Porter, Cheryl, Raymundo, Rubi M., Sands, Ronald D., Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Valdivia, Roberto O., Valin, Hugo, and Wiebe, Keith

Published
2018

23. Substantial differences in crop yield sensitivities between models call for functionality-based model evaluation

Author

Müller, Christoph, primary, Jägermeyr, Jonas, additional, Franke, James A., additional, Ruane, Alex C, additional, Balkovič, Juraj, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Dury, Marie, additional, Falloon, Pete, additional, Folberth, Christian, additional, Hank, Tobias, additional, Hoffmann, Munir, additional, Izaurralde, Roberto, additional, Jacquemin, Ingrid, additional, Khabarov, Nikolay, additional, Liu, Wenfeng, additional, Olin, Stefan, additional, Pugh, Thomas, additional, Wang, Xuhui, additional, Williams, Karina Emmanuelle, additional, Zabel, Florian, additional, and Elliott, Joshua W, additional

Published
2023
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25. A Regional Nuclear Conflict Would Compromise Global Food Security

Author

Jaegermeyr, Jonas, Robock, Alan, Elliott, Joshua, Muller, Christoph, Xia, Lili, Khabarov, Nikolay, Folberth, Christian, Schmid, Erwin, Liu, Wenfeng, Zabel, Florian, Rabin, Sam S, Puma, Michael J, Heslin, Alison, Franke, James, Foster, Ian, Asseng, Senthold, Bardeen, Charles G, Toon, Owen B, and Rosenzweig, Cynthia

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan could ignite fires large enough to emit more than 5 Tg of soot into the stratosphere. Climate model simulations have shown severe resulting climate perturbations with declines in global mean temperature by 1.8 ◦C and precipitation by 8%, for at least 5 y. Here we evaluate impacts for the global food system. Six harmonized state-of-the-art crop models show that global caloric production from maize, wheat, rice, and soybean falls by 13 (±1)%, 11 (±8)%, 3 (±5)%, and 17 (±2)% over 5 y. Total single-year losses of 12 (±4)% quadruple the largest observed historical anomaly and exceed impacts caused by historic droughts and volcanic eruptions. Colder temperatures drive losses more than changes in precipitation and solar radiation, leading to strongest impacts in temperate regions poleward of 30◦N, including the United States, Europe, and China for 10 to 15 y. Integrated food trade network analyses show that domestic reserves and global trade can largely buffer the production anomaly in the first year. Persistent multiyear losses, however, would constrain domestic food availability and propagate to the Global South, especially to food-insecure countries. By year 5, maize and wheat availability would decrease by 13% globally and by more than 20% in 71 countries with a cumulative population of 1.3 billion people. In view of increasing instability in South Asia, this study shows that a regional conflict using <1% of the worldwide nuclear arsenal could have adverse consequences for global food security unmatched in modern history.

Published
2020
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27. Parameterization-Induced Uncertainties and Impacts of Crop Management Harmonization in a Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Author

Folberth, Christian, Elliott, Joshua, Muller, Christoph, Balkovic, Juraj, Chryssanthacopoulos, James, Izaurralde, Roberto C, Jones, Curtis D, Khabarov, Nikolay, Liu, Wenfeng, Reddy, Ashwan, Schmid, Erwin, Skalsky, Rastislav, Yang, Hong, Arneth, Almut, Ciais, Philippe, Deryng, Delphine, Lawrence, Peter J, Olin, Stefan, Pugh, Thomas A. M, Ruane, Alex C, and Wang, Xuhui

Subjects
Life Sciences (General), Earth Resources And Remote Sensing
Abstract

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) combine agronomic or plant growth models with gridded spatial input data to estimate spatially explicit crop yields and agricultural externalities at the global scale. Differences in GGCM outputs arise from the use of different biophysical models, setups, and input data. GGCM ensembles are frequently employed to bracket uncertainties in impact studies without investigating the causes of divergence in outputs. This study explores differences in maize yield estimates from five GGCMs based on the public domain field-scale model Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) that participate in the AgMIP Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison initiative. Albeit using the same crop model, the GGCMs differ in model version, input data, management assumptions, parameterization, and selection of subroutines affecting crop yield estimates via cultivar distributions, soil attributes, and hydrology among others. The analyses reveal inter-annual yield variability and absolute yield levels in the EPIC-based GGCMs to be highly sensitive to soil parameterization and crop management. All GGCMs show an intermediate performance in reproducing reported yields with a higher skill if a static soil profile is assumed or sufficient plant nutrients are supplied. An in-depth comparison of setup domains for two EPIC-based GGCMs shows that GGCM performance and plant stress responses depend substantially on soil parameters and soil process parameterization, i.e. hydrology and nutrient turnover, indicating that these often neglected domains deserve more scrutiny. For agricultural impact assessments, employing a GGCM ensemble with its widely varying assumptions in setups appears the best solution for coping with uncertainties from lack of comprehensive global data on crop management, cultivar distributions and coefficients for agro-environmental processes. However, the underlying assumptions require systematic specifications to cover representative agricultural systems and environmental conditions. Furthermore, the interlinkage of parameter sensitivity from various domains such as soil parameters, nutrient turnover coefficients, and cultivar specifications highlights that global sensitivity analyses and calibration need to be performed in an integrated manner to avoid bias resulting from disregarded core model domains. Finally, relating evaluations of the EPIC-based GGCMs to a wider ensemble based on individual core models shows that structural differences outweigh in general differences in configurations of GGCMs based on the same model, and that the ensemble mean gains higher skill from the inclusion of structurally different GGCMs. Although the members of the wider ensemble herein do not consider crop-soil-management interactions, their sensitivity to nutrient supply indicates that findings for the EPIC-based sub-ensemble will likely become relevant for other GGCMs with the progressing inclusion of such processes.

Published
2019
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30. Consistent linkage of distributed food, water, energy, environmental (FWEE) models: perspectives of data and modeling platform for integrated FWEE security NEXUS analysis and planning.

Author

Ermolieva, Tatiana, primary, Zagorodny, Anatolij G., additional, Bogdanov, Vjacheslav L., additional, Wang, Gang, additional, Havlik, Petr, additional, Rovenskaya, Elena, additional, Komendantova, Nadejda, additional, Kahil, Taher, additional, Ortiz-Partida, Jose- Pablo, additional, Balkovic, Juraj, additional, Skalsky, Rastislav, additional, and Folberth, Christian, additional

Published
2023
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32. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset

Author

Müller, Christoph, Elliott, Joshua, Kelly, David, Arneth, Almut, Balkovic, Juraj, Ciais, Philippe, Deryng, Delphine, Folberth, Christian, Hoek, Steven, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jones, Curtis D., Khabarov, Nikolay, Lawrence, Peter, Liu, Wenfeng, Olin, Stefan, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Reddy, Ashwan, Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C., Sakurai, Gen, Schmid, Erwin, Skalsky, Rastislav, Wang, Xuhui, de Wit, Allard, and Yang, Hong

Published
2019
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33. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Author

Schewe, Jacob, Gosling, Simon N., Reyer, Christopher, Zhao, Fang, Ciais, Philippe, Elliott, Joshua, Francois, Louis, Huber, Veronika, Lotze, Heike K., Seneviratne, Sonia I., van Vliet, Michelle T. H., Vautard, Robert, Wada, Yoshihide, Breuer, Lutz, Büchner, Matthias, Carozza, David A., Chang, Jinfeng, Coll, Marta, Deryng, Delphine, de Wit, Allard, Eddy, Tyler D., Folberth, Christian, Frieler, Katja, Friend, Andrew D., Gerten, Dieter, Gudmundsson, Lukas, Hanasaki, Naota, Ito, Akihiko, Khabarov, Nikolay, Kim, Hyungjun, Lawrence, Peter, Morfopoulos, Catherine, Müller, Christoph, Müller Schmied, Hannes, Orth, René, Ostberg, Sebastian, Pokhrel, Yadu, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Sakurai, Gen, Satoh, Yusuke, Schmid, Erwin, Stacke, Tobias, Steenbeek, Jeroen, Steinkamp, Jörg, Tang, Qiuhong, Tian, Hanqin, Tittensor, Derek P., Volkholz, Jan, Wang, Xuhui, and Warszawski, Lila

Published
2019
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37. Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world

Author

Piontek, Franziska, Müller, Christoph, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Clark, Douglas B., Deryng, Delphine, Elliott, Joshua, de Jesus Colón González, Felipe, Flörke, Martina, Folberth, Christian, Franssen, Wietse, Frieler, Katja, Friend, Andrew D., Gosling, Simon N., Hemming, Deborah, Khabarov, Nikolay, Kim, Hyungjun, Lomas, Mark R., Masaki, Yoshimitsu, Mengel, Matthias, Morse, Andrew, Neumann, Kathleen, Nishina, Kazuya, Ostberg, Sebastian, Pavlick, Ryan, Ruane, Alex C., Schewe, Jacob, Schmid, Erwin, Stacke, Tobias, Tang, Qiuhong, Tessler, Zachary D., Tompkins, Adrian M., Warszawski, Lila, Wisser, Dominik, and Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

Published
2014

38. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change

Author

Elliott, Joshua, Deryng, Delphine, Müller, Christoph, Frieler, Katja, Konzmann, Markus, Gerten, Dieter, Glotter, Michael, Flörke, Martina, Wada, Yoshihide, Best, Neil, Eisner, Stephanie, Fekete, Balázs M., Folberth, Christian, Foster, Ian, Gosling, Simon N., Haddeland, Ingjerd, Khabarov, Nikolay, Ludwig, Fulco, Masaki, Yoshimitsu, Olin, Stefan, Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C., Satoh, Yusuke, Schmid, Erwin, Stacke, Tobias, Tang, Qiuhong, and Wisser, Dominik

Published
2014

40. Global Patterns of Crop Yield Stability Under Additional Nutrient and Water Inputs

Author

Mueller, Christoph, Elliott, Joshua, Pugh, Thomas A. M, Ruane, Alex C, Ciais, Philippe, Balkovic, Juraj, Deryng, Delphine, Folberth, Christian, Izaurralde, R. Cesar, Jones, Curtis D, Khabarov, Nikolay, Lawrence, Peter, Liu, Wenfeng, Reddy, Ashwan D, Schmid, Erwin, and Wang, Xuhui

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

Agricultural production must increase to feed a growing and wealthier population, as well as to satisfy increasing demands for biomaterials and biomass-based energy. At the same time, deforestation and land-use change need to be minimized in order to preserve biodiversity and maintain carbon stores in vegetation and soils. Consequently, agricultural land use needs to be intensified in order to increase food production per unit area of land. Here we use simulations of AgMIP's Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 to assess implications of input-driven intensification (water, nutrients) on crop yield and yield stability, which is an important aspect in food security. We find region- and crop-specific responses for the simulated period 1980+/-2009 with broadly increasing yield variability under additional nitrogen inputs and stabilizing yields under additional water inputs (irrigation), reflecting current patterns of water and nutrient limitation. The different models of the GGCMI ensemble show similar response patterns, but model differences warrant further research on management assumptions, such as variety selection and soil management, and inputs as well as on model implementation of different soil and plant processes, such as on heat stress, and parameters. Higher variability in crop productivity under higher fertilizer input will require adequate buffer mechanisms in trade and distribution/storage networks to avoid food price volatility.

Published
2018
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41. The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Cinner, Joshua E., primary, Caldwell, Iain, additional, Thiault, Lauric, additional, Ben, John, additional, Blanchard, Julia L., additional, Coll, Marta, additional, Diedrich, Amy, additional, Eddy, Tyler D., additional, Everett, Jason D., additional, Folberth, Christian, additional, Gascuel, Didier, additional, Guiet, Jerome, additional, Gurney, Georgina G., additional, Heneghan, Ryan F., additional, Jägermeyr, Jonas, additional, Jiddawi, Narriman, additional, Lahari, Rachael, additional, Kuange, John, additional, Liu, Wenfeng, additional, Maury, Oliver, additional, Müller, Christoph, additional, Novaglio, Camilla, additional, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, additional, Petrik, Colleen M., additional, Rabearisoa, Ando, additional, Tittensor, Derek P., additional, Wamukota, Andrew, additional, and Pollnac, Richard, additional

Published
2022
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43. Regional and model-specific response types in a global gridded crop model ensemble

Author

Müller, Christoph, primary, Jägermeyr, Jonas, additional, Elliott, Joshua, additional, Ruane, Alex, additional, Balkovic, Juraj, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Falloon, Pete, additional, Folberth, Christian, additional, Francois, Louis, additional, Hank, Tobias, additional, Hoffmann, Munir, additional, Izaurralde, Cesar, additional, Khabarov, Nikolay, additional, Liu, Wenfeng, additional, Olin, Stefan, additional, Pugh, Thomas, additional, Wang, Xuhui, additional, Williams, Karina, additional, and Zabel, Florian, additional

Published
2022
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45. The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author

Cinner, Joshua Eli, Caldwell, Iain, Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia, Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler, Everett, Jason, Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina, Heneghan, Ryan, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen, Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek, Wamukota, Andrew, Pollnac, Richard, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CoralCoE), James Cook University (JCU), Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement (CRIOBE), Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Instituto de Ciencia de Materiales de Aragón [Saragoza, España] (ICMA-CSIC), University of Zaragoza - Universidad de Zaragoza [Zaragoza], College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Smithfield, Qld, Australia, Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research (CFER), Memorial University of Newfoundland = Université Memorial de Terre-Neuve [St. John's, Canada] (MUN), School of Mathematics and Physics [Brisbane], University of Queensland [Brisbane], International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Dynamique et durabilité des écosystèmes : de la source à l’océan (DECOD), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Los Angeles] (AOS), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, School of Mathematical Sciences [Brisbane], Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT)-Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Department of Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Technology (University of Dar es Salaam), University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University (CAU), Laboratoire Service d' Experimentations Aquacoles [Palavas les Flots] (LSEA MARBEC), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [Santa Cruz], University of California [Santa Cruz] (UC Santa Cruz), Department of Biology (Dalhousie University), Dalhousie University [Halifax], Pwani University, Kenya, and Department of Fisheries, Animal and Veterinary Sciences, College of the Environment and Life Sciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston

Subjects
[SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Climate Action, Zero Hunger
Abstract

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, and when they are, it is often at a national scale, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries. Our study reveals three key findings: First, we find that the overall potential losses to fisheries is higher than potential losses to agriculture, but there is substantial within-country variability. Second, while more than two-thirds of locations will bear a double burden of potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing a double burden. Third, lower socioeconomic status communities are more likely to experience potential impacts than higher socioeconomic status communities.

Published
2022

47. How Can CO2 Help Agriculture in the Face of Climate Change?

Author

Delphine, Deryng, Elliott, Joshua, Folberth, Christian, Mueller, Christoph, Pugh, Thomas A. M, Boote, Kenneth J, Conway, Declan, Ruane, Alexander C, Gerten, Dieter, Jones, James W, Khabarov, Nikolay, Olin, Stefan, Schaphoff, Sibyll, Schmid, Erwin, Yang, Hong, and Rosenzweig, Cynthia

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology
Abstract

Humans are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air through CO2 emissions. This is changing the climate, making life harder for many plants in areas that suffer from heat and drought. However, plants need CO2 to grow, and more CO2 can make them grow better. So will plants overall benefit from increased CO2 level or suffer from it? We wanted to test if the positive effect would offset the negative ones. To do so, we used scientific models to calculate future crop production and water use of four important crops all over the world under different scenarios of CO2 emissions and climate change. Our calculations show that although there will be large reductions in crop yield due to climate change over the next century, some crops will still be able to grow well. This is also because crops can grow with less water when CO2 levels are raised.

Published
2017

48. Global Gridded Crop Model Evaluation: Benchmarking, Skills, Deficiencies and Implications.

Author

Muller, Christoph, Elliott, Joshua, Chryssanthacopoulos, James, Arneth, Almut, Balkovic, Juraj, Ciais, Philippe, Deryng, Delphine, Folberth, Christian, Glotter, Michael, Hoek, Steven, Iizumi, Toshichika, Izaurralde, Roberto C, Jones, Curtis, Khabarov, Nikolay, Lawrence, Peter, Liu, Wenfeng, Olin, Stefan, Pugh, Thomas A. M, Ray, Deepak K, Reddy, Ashwan, Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C, Sakurai, Gen, Schmid, Erwin, and Skalsky, Rastislav

Subjects
Meteorology And Climatology, Statistics And Probability
Abstract

Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but so far there is no general framework on how to assess model performance. Here we evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that global gridded crop models (GGCMs) show mixed skill in reproducing time series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producing countries by many GGCMs and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all crop modelers so that other modeling groups can also test their model performance against the reference data and the GGCMI benchmark.

Published
2017
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