Search

Epidemiological models often assume that individuals do not change their behavior or that those aspects are implicitly incorporated in parameters in the models. Typically these assumption is included in the contact rate between infectious and susceptible individuals. For example models incorporate time variable contact rates to account for the effect of behavior or other interventions than in general terms reduce transmission. However, adaptive behaviors are expected to emerge and to play an important role in the transmission dynamics across populations. Here, we propose a theoretical framework to couple transmission dynamics with behavioral dynamics due to infection awareness. We first model the dynamics of social behavior by using a game theory framework. Then we coupled the model with an epidemiological model that captures the disease dynamics by assuming that individuals are more aware of that epidemiological state (i.e. fraction of infected individuals) and reduces their contacts. Our results from a mechanistic modeling framework show that as individuals increase their awareness the steady-state value of the final fraction of infected individuals in a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model decreases. We also extend our results to a spatial framework, incorporating a spatially-defined theoretical contact network (social network) and we made the awareness parameter dependent on a global or local contact structure. Our results show that even when individuals increase their awareness of the disease, the spatial structure itself defines the steady state solution of the system, in which more connected networks (networks with random or constant degree distributions) results in a population with no change in their behavior. Our work then shows that explicitly incorporating dynamics about the behavioral response dynamics might significantly change the predicted course of the epidemic and therefore highlights the importance of accounting for this source of variation in the epidemiological models.Author summaryWe present a theoretical framework for coupling traditional epidemiological models with a behavioral dynamical model in the form of a game-theoretical setting. Here, individual payoffs are assumed to be coupled with the force of infection (FOI) and the transmission probability, which is proportional to the individuals behavior. Our approach studies the temporal dynamics of a mechanistic epidemiological model (SIS) coupled with a prisoners dilemma framework, then we extended the results to an SIS model implemented on a network (social network) using three types of networks: Scale-free, Watts-Strogatz or small world and grid networks. Our results show that behavior can change the final fraction of infected individuals and the fraction of cooperators or individuals who voluntarily take actions to reduce their transmission in the system. In addition, when the dynamics were studied on a contact network we found that the topology of this network plays an essential role in controlling individuals behavior. Specifically, our results show that as the network gets more connected (i.e. degree distribution is random or uniform (Watts-Strogatz or grid networks respectively) disease spread is faster and therefore individuals are not obligated to cooperate. However, when the dynamics are studied in a scale free contact network, as degree distribution follows a power-law, we show that similarly as the mechanistic ODEs model individuals cooperate so their transmission probability is reduced.

Vector control methods that mobilize and impact rapidly during dengue, Zika, and chikungunya outbreaks are urgently needed in urban contexts. We investigated whether one person using a handheld aerosolized insecticide could achieve efficacy levels comparable to targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS), using pyrethroid-resistant Aedes aegypti in a semi-field setting with experimental houses in Mexico. The insecticide product (H24, a carbamate and pyrethroid mixture), available over-the-counter locally, was sprayed only on known Ae. aegypti–resting surfaces, for example, walls less than 1.5 m and dark hidden areas. In six identical houses with paired bedrooms, one bedroom was treated, and the other remained an untreated control. Each week for 8 weeks, 100 female pyrethroid-resistant Ae. aegypti were released in each bedroom and followed up daily. Mortality rates in treated bedrooms exceeded 90% for at least 2 weeks, and more than 80% (89.2; 95% CI: 79.98–98.35) for 3 weeks or more. Mortality rates in control houses were zero. Results demonstrate that the immediate impact of TIRS can be delivered by one person using existing products, at an estimated cost for the average household in Mexico of under US$3 per month. Triggered by early outbreak signs, dissemination via community hubs and mass/social media of instructions to treat the home immediately, with monthly re-treatment thereafter, provides a simple means to engage and empower householders. Compatible with integrated vector management strategies, it enables self-protection even if existing agencies falter, a situation exemplified by the potential impact on vector control of the restrictions imposed during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.

Scope Modulation of intestinal microbiota has emerged as a new therapeutic approach for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Herein, it is addressed whether gut microbiota modulation by quercetin and intestinal microbiota transplantation can influence NAFLD development. Methods and results Gut microbiota donor mice are selected according to their response to high-fat diet (HFD) and quercetin in terms of obesity and NAFLD-related biomarkers. Germ-free recipients displayed metabolic phenotypic differences derived from interactions between microbiota transplanted, diets, and quercetin. Based on the evaluation of hallmark characteristics of NAFLD, it is found that gut microbiota transplantation from the HFD-non-responder donor and the HFD-fed donor with the highest response to quercetin results in a protective phenotype against HFD-induced NAFLD, in a mechanism that involves gut-liver axis alteration blockage in these receivers. Gut microbiota from the HFD-responder donor predisposed transplanted germ-free mice to NAFLD. Divergent protective and deleterious metabolic phenotypes exhibited are related to definite microbial profiles in recipients, highlighting the predominant role of Akkermansia genus in the protection from obesity-associated NAFLD development. Conclusions The results provide scientific support for the prebiotic capacity of quercetin and the transfer of established metabolic profiles through gut microbiota transplantation as a protective strategy against the development of obesity-related NAFLD.

60 p. Gut microbiota is involved in obesity, metabolic syndrome and the progression of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It has been recently suggested that the flavonoid quercetin may have the ability to modulate the intestinal microbiota composition, suggesting a prebiotic capacity which highlights a great therapeutic potential in NAFLD. The present study aims to investigate benefits of experimental treatment with quercetin on gut microbial balance and related gut-liver axis activation in a nutritional animal model of NAFLD associated to obesity. C57BL/6J mice were challenged with high fat diet (HFD) supplemented or not with quercetin for 16 weeks. HFD induced obesity, metabolic syndrome and the development of hepatic steatosis as main hepatic histological finding. Increased accumulation of intrahepatic lipids was associated with altered gene expression related to lipid metabolism, as a result of deregulation of their major modulators. Quercetin supplementation decreased insulin resistance and NAFLD activity score, by reducing the intrahepatic lipid accumulation through its ability to modulate lipid metabolism gene expression, cytochrome P450 2E1 (CYP2E1)-dependent lipoperoxidation and related lipotoxicity. Microbiota composition was determined via 16S ribosomal RNA Illumina next-generation sequencing. Metagenomic studies revealed HFD-dependent differences at phylum, class and genus levels leading to dysbiosis, characterized by an increase in Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio and in Gram-negative bacteria, and a dramatically increased detection of Helicobacter genus. Dysbiosis was accompanied by endotoxemia, intestinal barrier dysfunction and gut-liver axis alteration and subsequent inflammatory gene overexpression. Dysbiosis-mediated toll-like receptor 4 (TLR-4)-NF-B signaling pathway activation was associated with inflammasome initiation response and reticulum stress pathway induction. Quercetin reverted gut microbiota imbalance and related endotoxemia-mediated TLR-4 pathway induction, with subsequent inhibition of inflammasome response and reticulum stress pathway activation, leading to the blockage of lipid metabolism gene expression deregulation. Our results support the suitability of quercetin as a therapeutic approach for obesity-associated NAFLD via its anti-inflammatory, antioxidant and prebiotic integrative response.Gut microbiota is involved in obesity, metabolic syndrome and the progression of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It has been recently suggested that the flavonoid quercetin may have the ability to modulate the intestinal microbiota composition, suggesting a prebiotic capacity which highlights a great therapeutic potential in NAFLD. The present study aims to investigate benefits of experimental treatment with quercetin on gut microbial balance and related gut-liver axis activation in a nutritional animal model of NAFLD associated to obesity. C57BL/6J mice were challenged with high fat diet (HFD) supplemented or not with quercetin for 16 weeks. HFD induced obesity, metabolic syndrome and the development of hepatic steatosis as main hepatic histological finding. Increased accumulation of intrahepatic lipids was associated with altered gene expression related to lipid metabolism, as a result of deregulation of their major modulators. Quercetin supplementation decreased insulin resistance and NAFLD activity score, by reducing the intrahepatic lipid accumulation through its ability to modulate lipid metabolism gene expression, cytochrome P450 2E1 (CYP2E1)-dependent lipoperoxidation and related lipotoxicity. Microbiota composition was determined via 16S ribosomal RNA Illumina next-generation sequencing. Metagenomic studies revealed HFD-dependent differences at phylum, class and genus levels leading to dysbiosis, characterized by an increase in Firmicutes/Bacteroidetes ratio and in Gram-negative bacteria, and a dramatically increased detection of Helicobacter genus. Dysbiosis was accompanied by endotoxemia, intestinal barrier dysfunction and gut-liver axis alteration and subsequent inflammatory gene overexpression. Dysbiosis-mediated toll-like receptor 4 (TLR-4)-NF-B signaling pathway activation was associated with inflammasome initiation response and reticulum stress pathway induction. Quercetin reverted gut microbiota imbalance and related endotoxemia-mediated TLR-4 pathway induction, with subsequent inhibition of inflammasome response and reticulum stress pathway activation, leading to the blockage of lipid metabolism gene expression deregulation. Our results support the suitability of quercetin as a therapeutic approach for obesity-associated NAFLD via its anti-inflammatory, antioxidant and prebiotic integrative response