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The analysis of vulnerabilities in large complex spaces is fundamentally problematic. The lack of capacity to generate a threat assessment merely exacerbates this problem. Lacking as well, in current literature is a developed methodology. To overcome this problem, we propose an approach using multi-agent modelling, which is also melded with three dimensional (3D) tactical understandings. Our approach builds on a microsimulation decision support tool, which was developed for a behavioural simulation of CBRN events. Microsimulation is based on the individual; who as an individual has a number of attributes, and which are stochastic (when repeated within an attribute). This approach is then enveloped. The simulations approach is intended for simulation of global and social controls and is designed to deal effectively with separate population groups. Each group has rules based on the group’s behaviour and attributes, and complex scenarios can be built very simply. This therefore, enables analysis of emergent group behaviours and patterns. Our approach is akin to chemical or fire spread quantification. It views particle spread analysis as synonymous with complex movement (or stationary location) of many active agents within a complex 3D environment. This approach, we believe is needed to ‘solve’ the counter terrorism problem presented by scenarios such as the 2007 Haymarket attack; such as, how to analyse such events, as well as develop effective interdiction. A discrete behaviour model approach is suggested. This approach through repeated simulation (within the same parameters) should build up a statistical pattern of domain behaviour. As well, information on the outcome of changing behaviour can also be logged. Therefore, individual outcomes can be matched against real-time data to give best prediction of eventual outcomes, and the range of future strategies based on closest approach to reality. Taking this approach, potential targets could then be given random attribu

Studies evaluating effects of human activity on wildlife typically emphasize short-term behavioral responses from which it is difficult to infer biological significance or formulate plans to mitigate harmful impacts. Based on decades of detailed behavioral records, we evaluated long-term impacts of vessel activity on bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.) in Shark Bay, Australia. We compared dolphin abundance within adjacent 36-km2 tourism and control sites, over three consecutive 4.5-year periods wherein research activity was relatively constant but tourism levels increased from zero, to one, to two dolphin-watching operators. A nonlinear logistic model demonstrated that there was no difference in dolphin abundance between periods with no tourism and periods in which one operator offered tours. As the number of tour operators increased to two, there was a significant average decline in dolphin abundance (14.9%; 95% CI = -20.8 to -8.23), approximating a decline of one per seven individuals. Concurrently, within the control site, the average increase in dolphin abundance was not significant (8.5%; 95% CI = -4.0 to +16.7). Given the substantially greater presence and proximity of tour vessels to dolphins relative to research vessels, tour-vessel activity contributed more to declining dolphin numbers within the tourism site than research vessels. Although this trend may not jeopardize the large, genetically diverse dolphin population of Shark Bay, the decline is unlikely to be sustainable for local dolphin tourism. A similar decline would be devastating for small, closed, resident, or endangered cetacean populations. The substantial effect of tour vessels on dolphin abundance in a region of low-level tourism calls into question the presumption that dolphin-watching tourism is benign.