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We consider the problem of developing interpretable and computationally efficient matrix decomposition methods for matrices whose entries have bounded support. Such matrices are found in large-scale DNA methylation studies and many other settings. Our approach decomposes the data matrix into a Tucker representation wherein the number of columns in the constituent factor matrices is not constrained. We derive a computationally efficient sampling algorithm to solve for the Tucker decomposition. We evaluate the performance of our method using three criteria: predictability, computability, and stability. Empirical results show that our method has similar performance as other state-of-the-art approaches in terms of held-out prediction and computational complexity, but has significantly better performance in terms of stability to changes in hyper-parameters. The improved stability results in higher confidence in the results in applications where the constituent factors are used to generate and test scientific hypotheses such as DNA methylation analysis of cancer samples., Comment: 33 pages, 18 figures

Many Bayesian statistical inference problems come down to computing a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) assignment of latent variables. Yet, standard methods for estimating the MAP assignment do not have a finite time guarantee that the algorithm has converged to a fixed point. Previous research has found that MAP inference can be represented in dual form as a linear programming problem with a non-polynomial number of constraints. A Lagrangian relaxation of the dual yields a statistical inference algorithm as a linear programming problem. However, the decision as to which constraints to remove in the relaxation is often heuristic. We present a method for maximum a-posteriori inference in general Bayesian factor models that sequentially adds constraints to the fully relaxed dual problem using Benders' decomposition. Our method enables the incorporation of expressive integer and logical constraints in clustering problems such as must-link, cannot-link, and a minimum number of whole samples allocated to each cluster. Using this approach, we derive MAP estimation algorithms for the Bayesian Gaussian mixture model and latent Dirichlet allocation. Empirical results show that our method produces a higher optimal posterior value compared to Gibbs sampling and variational Bayes methods for standard data sets and provides certificate of convergence.

Experimentation involves risk. The investigator expends time and money in the pursuit of data that supports a hypothesis. In the end, the investigator may find that all of these costs were for naught and the data fail to reject the null. Furthermore, the investigator may not be able to test other hypotheses with the same data set in order to avoid false positives due to p-hacking. Therefore, there is a need for a mechanism for investigators to hedge the risk of financial and statistical bankruptcy in the business of experimentation. In this work, we build on the game-theoretic statistics framework to enable an investigator to hedge their bets against the null hypothesis and thus avoid ruin. First, we describe a method by which the investigator's test martingale wealth process can be capitalized by solving for the risk-neutral price. Then, we show that a portfolio that comprises the risky test martingale and a risk-free process is still a test martingale which enables the investigator to select a particular risk-return position using Markowitz portfolio theory. Finally, we show that a function that is derivative of the test martingale process can be constructed and used as a hedging instrument by the investigator or as a speculative instrument by a risk-seeking investor who wants to participate in the potential returns of the uncertain experiment wealth process. Together, these instruments enable an investigator to hedge the risk of ruin and they enable a investigator to efficiently hedge experimental risk.

We consider the problem of sequential multiple hypothesis testing with nontrivial data collection costs. This problem appears, for example, when conducting biological experiments to identify differentially expressed genes of a disease process. This work builds on the generalized $\alpha$-investing framework which enables control of the false discovery rate in a sequential testing setting. We make a theoretical analysis of the long term asymptotic behavior of $\alpha$-wealth which motivates a consideration of sample size in the $\alpha$-investing decision rule. Posing the testing process as a game with nature, we construct a decision rule that optimizes the expected $\alpha$-wealth reward (ERO) and provides an optimal sample size for each test. Empirical results show that a cost-aware ERO decision rule correctly rejects more false null hypotheses than other methods for $n=1$ where $n$ is the sample size. When the sample size is not fixed cost-aware ERO uses a prior on the null hypothesis to adaptively allocate of the sample budget to each test. We extend cost-aware ERO investing to finite-horizon testing which enables the decision rule to allocate samples in a non-myopic manner. Finally, empirical tests on real data sets from biological experiments show that cost-aware ERO balances the allocation of samples to an individual test against the allocation of samples across multiple tests., Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures, 8 tables

We present a new non-negative matrix factorization model for $(0,1)$ bounded-support data based on the doubly non-central beta (DNCB) distribution, a generalization of the beta distribution. The expressiveness of the DNCB distribution is particularly useful for modeling DNA methylation datasets, which are typically highly dispersed and multi-modal; however, the model structure is sufficiently general that it can be adapted to many other domains where latent representations of $(0,1)$ bounded-support data are of interest. Although the DNCB distribution lacks a closed-form conjugate prior, several augmentations let us derive an efficient posterior inference algorithm composed entirely of analytic updates. Our model improves out-of-sample predictive performance on both real and synthetic DNA methylation datasets over state-of-the-art methods in bioinformatics. In addition, our model yields meaningful latent representations that accord with existing biological knowledge., Comment: To appear in the Proceedings of the Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI) 2021

Hierarchical clustering is a critical task in numerous domains. Many approaches are based on heuristics and the properties of the resulting clusterings are studied post hoc. However, in several applications, there is a natural cost function that can be used to characterize the quality of the clustering. In those cases, hierarchical clustering can be seen as a combinatorial optimization problem. To that end, we introduce a new approach based on A* search. We overcome the prohibitively large search space by combining A* with a novel \emph{trellis} data structure. This combination results in an exact algorithm that scales beyond previous state of the art, from a search space with $10^{12}$ trees to $10^{15}$ trees, and an approximate algorithm that improves over baselines, even in enormous search spaces that contain more than $10^{1000}$ trees. We empirically demonstrate that our method achieves substantially higher quality results than baselines for a particle physics use case and other clustering benchmarks. We describe how our method provides significantly improved theoretical bounds on the time and space complexity of A* for clustering., Comment: 30 pages, 9 figures

Hierarchical clustering is a fundamental task often used to discover meaningful structures in data, such as phylogenetic trees, taxonomies of concepts, subtypes of cancer, and cascades of particle decays in particle physics. Typically approximate algorithms are used for inference due to the combinatorial number of possible hierarchical clusterings. In contrast to existing methods, we present novel dynamic-programming algorithms for \emph{exact} inference in hierarchical clustering based on a novel trellis data structure, and we prove that we can exactly compute the partition function, maximum likelihood hierarchy, and marginal probabilities of sub-hierarchies and clusters. Our algorithms scale in time and space proportional to the powerset of $N$ elements which is super-exponentially more efficient than explicitly considering each of the (2N-3)!! possible hierarchies. Also, for larger datasets where our exact algorithms become infeasible, we introduce an approximate algorithm based on a sparse trellis that compares well to other benchmarks. Exact methods are relevant to data analyses in particle physics and for finding correlations among gene expression in cancer genomics, and we give examples in both areas, where our algorithms outperform greedy and beam search baselines. In addition, we consider Dasgupta's cost with synthetic data., Comment: 27 pages, 12 figures

We present a global optimization approach for solving the maximum a-posteriori (MAP) clustering problem under the Gaussian mixture model.Our approach can accommodate side constraints and it preserves the combinatorial structure of the MAP clustering problem by formulating it asa mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problem (MINLP). We approximate the MINLP through a mixed-integer quadratic program (MIQP) transformation that improves computational aspects while guaranteeing $\epsilon$-global optimality. An important benefit of our approach is the explicit quantification of the degree of suboptimality, via the optimality gap, en route to finding the globally optimal MAP clustering. Numerical experiments comparing our method to other approaches show that our method finds a better solution than standard clustering methods. Finally, we cluster a real breast cancer gene expression data set incorporating intrinsic subtype information; the induced constraints substantially improve the computational performance and produce more coherent and bio-logically meaningful clusters.

Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear whether the fixed point identified by the variational inference algorithm is a local or a global optimum. Here, we propose a method for constructing iterative optimization algorithms for variational inference problems that are guaranteed to converge to the $\epsilon$-global variational lower bound on the log-likelihood. We derive inference algorithms for two variational approximations to a standard Bayesian Gaussian mixture model (BGMM). We present a minimal data set for empirically testing convergence and show that a variational inference algorithm frequently converges to a local optimum while our algorithm always converges to the globally optimal variational lower bound. We characterize the loss incurred by choosing a non-optimal variational approximation distribution suggesting that selection of the approximating variational distribution deserves as much attention as the selection of the original statistical model for a given data set., Comment: 27 pages, 3 figures

Mixed membership factorization is a popular approach for analyzing data sets that have within-sample heterogeneity. In recent years, several algorithms have been developed for mixed membership matrix factorization, but they only guarantee estimates from a local optimum. Here, we derive a global optimization (GOP) algorithm that provides a guaranteed $\epsilon$-global optimum for a sparse mixed membership matrix factorization problem. We test the algorithm on simulated data and find the algorithm always bounds the global optimum across random initializations and explores multiple modes efficiently., Comment: 19 pages, 3 figures, 1 table

The detection of rare variants is important for understanding the genetic heterogeneity in mixed samples. Recently, next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies have enabled the identification of single nucleotide variants (SNVs) in mixed samples with high resolution. Yet, the noise inherent in the biological processes involved in next-generation sequencing necessitates the use of statistical methods to identify true rare variants. We propose a novel Bayesian statistical model and a variational expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate non-reference allele frequency (NRAF) and identify SNVs in heterogeneous cell populations. We demonstrate that our variational EM algorithm has comparable sensitivity and specificity compared with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling inference algorithm, and is more computationally efficient on tests of low coverage ($27\times$ and $298\times$) data. Furthermore, we show that our model with a variational EM inference algorithm has higher specificity than many state-of-the-art algorithms. In an analysis of a directed evolution longitudinal yeast data set, we are able to identify a time-series trend in non-reference allele frequency and detect novel variants that have not yet been reported. Our model also detects the emergence of a beneficial variant earlier than was previously shown, and a pair of concomitant variants., Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures, 4 tables