1. Understanding historical summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) abundance patterns through the incorporation of oceanography-dependent vital rates in Bayesian hierarchical models
- Author
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O'Leary, Cecilia A., Miller, Timothy J., Thorson, James T., and Nye, Janet A.
- Subjects
United States. Northeast Fisheries Science Center ,Population biology -- Health aspects -- Models ,Fishing -- Health aspects -- Models ,Earth sciences - Abstract
Climate can impact fish population dynamics through changes in productivity and shifts in distribution, and both responses have been observed for many fish species. However, few studies have incorporated climate into population dynamics or stock assessment models. This study aimed to uncover how past variations in population vital rates and fishing pressure account for observed abundance variation in summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus). The influences of the Gulf Stream Index, an index of climate variability in the Northwest Atlantic, on abundance were explored through natural mortality and stock-recruitment relationships in age-structured hierarchical Bayesian models. Posterior predictive loss and deviance information criterion indicated that out of tested models, the best estimates of summer flounder abundances resulted from the climate-dependent natural mortality model that included log-quadratic responses to the Gulf Stream Index. This climate-linked population model demonstrates the role of climate responses in observed abundance patterns and emphasizes the complexities of environmental effects on populations beyond simple correlations. This approach highlights the importance of modeling the combined effect of fishing and climate simultaneously to understand population dynamics. Le climat peut avoir un impact sur la dynamique des populations de poissons par le biais de modifications de la productivity et de la repartition, ces deux types de reactions ayant ete observes pour de nombreuses especes de poissons. Peu d'etudes ont toutefois integre le climat a des modeles de dynamique des populations ou d'evaluation des stocks. La presente etude avait pour objectif de determiner l'incidence de variations passees d'indices vitaux de populations et de la pression de la peche sur les variations observees de l'abondance de cardeaux d'ete (Paralichthys dentatus). Les influences de l'indice du Gulf Stream, un indice de variabilite du climat dans le nord-ouest de l'ocean Atlantique, sur cette abondance ont ete examinees par l'entremise de relations entre la mortalite naturelle et le recrutement au stock dans des modeles bayesiens hierarchiques structures par age. La perte predite a posteriori et le critere d'information associe a la somme des carres des ecarts indiquent que, des modeles mis a l'essai, les meilleures estimations des abondances des cardeaux d'ete sont obtenues du modele de mortalite naturelle dependant du climat qui integre des reactions log-quadratiques a l'indice du Gulf Stream. Ce modele de population relie au climat demontre le role des reactions au climat dans les motifs d'abondance observes et souligne la complexite des effets environnementaux sur les populations au-dela de correlations simples. L'approche fait ressortir l'importance de modeliser simultanement l'effet combine de la peche et du climat pour comprendre la dynamique des populations. [Traduit par la Redaction], Introduction Water temperatures are increasing globally (Lozier et al. 2008; Belkin 2009; Hansen et al. 2010; GISTEMP Team 2018) and global climate models indicate that this warming is likely to [...]
- Published
- 2019
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