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Made available in DSpace on 2019-09-12T16:26:09Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2016 This article analyzes the climatic differences that occur in a transect that extends from São Paulo State coast to the south of Minas Gerais State, including the municipalities of Ubatuba/SP, Taubaté/SP, Campos do Jordão/SP and Extrema/MG. This territory has a complex topography which contributes to the existence of different types of climate and vegetation. Based on precipitation and temperature data produced by a climate simulation model, it was possible to statistically analyze the future climate of this region heavily transformed by human occupation and by the development of agriculture. Using the regional model ETA (downscaling) in the resolution 20 X 20 km coupled with the general circulation atmosphere-ocean model HadCM3, it was possible to forecast the climate scenarios A1B from IPCC for the time intervals 2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2099 and to compare them with historic data (1961-1990). Based on data analyzes, an increase in the average air temperature was found for each time period observed, reaching more than 3ºC higher until the end of this century. Also, in general, there will be an increase in the total annual amount of precipitation in these three periods of time, which might be reduced in the last period (2071-2099), especially for Ubatuba/SP. Although the temperature and precipitation increases are higher in January in nearly all the studied cities, there will be a higher variability in July, showing that extreme events are more likely to occur during winter in nearly all regions. © 2016, Institute for Environmental Research in Hydrographic Basins (IPABHi). All rights reserved. Dias, V., Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU), Taubaté, SP, Brazil Fisch, G., Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU), Taubaté, SP, Brazil, Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia Aeroespacial (IAE/DCTA), Instituto de Aeronáutica e Espaço (IAE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil Fisch, S.T.V., Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU), Taubaté, SP, Brazil

Made available in DSpace on 2019-09-12T16:26:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2016 This work quantified temperature and precipitation variations in the region of Taubate using historic precipitation data and temperature simulations (climatology from 1961 to 1990). Corrections were made based on the observational data, and simulations of future time intervals (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2099) using a climate-model simulation. Thus, it is possible to predict an increase of 3.6°C in the average annual air temperature and an increase of 231 mm in annual accumulated rainfall (equivalent to approximately 17% of the climatological normal) for the interval 2071-2099. Moreover, in relation to seasonal distribution, there is a higher monthly average temperature increase in the spring (4.1°C) and lower in the summer (3.4°C) and a higher average daily increase in summer rainfall (1.1 mm) and smaller increase in spring (0.3 mm). There is also an increase of approximately 5 days in the daily number of days with greater than 1mm precipitation throughout the year. The analysis of the water balance showed deficits in the months of August and September and found a disparity between the input and output of water entering the territory through precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water consumption, suggesting the need to adapt to new social and environmental scenarios. © 2016, Institute for Environmental Research in Hydrographic Basins (IPABHi). All rights reserved. dos Santos, T.A., Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU), Taubaté, SP, Brazil Fisch, G., Universidade de Taubaté (UNITAU), Taubaté, SP, Brazil, Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia Aeroespacial (IAE/DCTA), Instituto de Aeronáutica e Espaço (IAE), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil

Summary Background Previous trials of antiplatelet therapy for the prevention of venous thromboembolism have individually been inconclusive, but a meta-analysis of their results indicated reductions in the risks of deep-vein thrombosis and of pulmonary embolism in various high-risk groups. The aim of this large randomised placebo-controlled trial was to confirm or refute these apparent benefits. Methods During 1992–1998, 148 hospitals in Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Sweden and the UK randomised 13 356 patients undergoing surgery for hip fracture, and 22 hospitals in New Zealand randomised a further 4088 patients undergoing elective arthroplasty. Study treatment was 160 mg daily aspirin or placebo, started preoperatively and continued for 35 days. Patients received any other thromboprophylaxis thought necessary. Follow-up was of mortality and of in-hospital morbidity up to day 35. Findings Among the patients with hip fracture, allocation to aspirin produced proportional reductions in pulmonary embolism of 43% (95% CI 18–60; p=0·002) and in symptomatic deep-vein thrombosis of 29% (3–48; p=0·03). Pulmonary embolism or deep-vein thrombosis was confirmed in 105 (1·6%) of 6679 patients assigned aspirin compared with 165 (2·5%) of 6677 assigned placebo, which represents an absolute reduction of 9 (SE 2) per 1000 and a proportional reduction of 36% (19–50; p=0·0003). Similar proportional effects were seen in all major subgroups, including patients receiving subcutaneous heparin. Aspirin prevented 4 (1) fatal pulmonary emboli per 1000 patients (18 aspirin-group vs 43 placebo-group deaths), representing a proportional reduction of 58% (27–76; p=0·002), with no apparent effect on deaths from any other vascular cause (hazard ratio 1·04 [95% CI 0·86–1·26]) or non-vascular cause (1·01 [0·84–1·23]). Deaths due to bleeding were few (13 aspirin vs 15 placebo), but there was an excess of 6 (3) postoperative transfused bleeding episodes per 1000 patients assigned aspirin (p=0·04). Among electivearthroplasty patients, rates of venous thromboembolism were lower, but the proportional effects of aspirin were compatible with those among patients with hip fracture.

The pattern of inheritance in the fragile X (fra(X)) mutation follows a multistage intergenerational process in which the premutation evolves into the full mutation and the characteristic phenotype of the fra(X) syndrome after passing through oogenesis or a postzygotic event. Findings from our multicenter study confirm a strong direct relationship between fra(X) premutation size in the mother and probability of a full mutation in offspring with the mutation. Remarkably, the best-fitting equations are nonlinear asymptotic functions. The close approximation to both the logistic model and Gompertz suggests a process of accumulation of errors in DNA synthesis, as has been proposed previously. We also note that a larger-than-expected number of daughters of transmitting males have premutations that are smaller than their fathers', and that proportion is significantly higher than the proportion of daughters whose premutations are smaller than their mothers'. Intergenerational decreases in premutation size have been reported in other trinucleotide-repeat disorders and also appear to be parent-of-origin specific. Thus, while intergenerational expansion to the full mutation in fra(X) may manifest a postzygotic event, decreases in mutation size may occur during or prior to meiosis.