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To achieve successful prevention of fire incidents originating from human activities, it is imperative to possess a thorough understanding. This paper introduces a machine learning approach, specifically utilizing deep neural networks (DNN), to develop predictive models for fire occurrence in Keelung City, Taiwan. It investigates ten factors across demographic, architectural, and economic domains through spatial analysis and thematic maps generated from geographic information system data. These factors are then integrated as inputs for the DNN model. Through 50 iterations, performance indices including the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), variance accounted for (VAF), prediction interval (PI), mean absolute error (MAE), weighted index (WI), weighted mean absolute percentage error (WMAPE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS), and the ratio of performance to deviation (RPD) are computed, with average values of 0.89, 7.30 × 10−2, 89.21, 1.63, 4.90 × 10−2, 0.97, 2.92 × 10−1, 0.88, and 4.84, respectively. The model's predictions, compared with historical data, demonstrate its efficacy. Additionally, this study explores the impact of various urban renewal strategies using the DNN model, highlighting the significant influence of economic factors on fire incidence. This underscores the importance of economic factors in mitigating fire incidents and emphasizes their consideration in urban renewal planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In modern metropolitan governance, fire-fighting represents a challenging task given the limited resources and the nature of disastrous impact on the citizen's psyche regarding the loss of both property and human lives. Fire-fighting and reduction of fire loss remain a challenging task for policy makers. The study of past fire incidences and factors empower policy makers for making resource allocation decision. In the wake of availability of large collections of both time-stamped and geocoded fire incident data, the exploration of any possible spatio-temporal patterns can help better allocation of limited fire resources. This paper employs spatio-temporal data analysis techniques such as spatial kernel density and spatial dependency index such as Ripley's K, Moran's I and Lee's L to explore socioeconomical factors and fire incidents. The results showed that in addition to population factors, the amount of electricity usage and ems demands are also relevant indicators for fire occurrences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire incidence is a big problem for every local government unit in the Philippines. The two most detrimental effects of fire incidence are economic loss and loss of life. To mitigate these losses, proper planning and implementation of control measures must be done. An essential aspect of planning and control measures is prediction of possible fire incidences. This study is conducted to analyze the historical data to create a forecasting model for the fire incidence in Davao City. Results of the analyses show that fire incidence has no trend or seasonality, and occurrences of fire are neither consistently increasing nor decreasing over time. Furthermore, the absence of seasonality in the data indicate that surge of fire incidence may occur at any time of the year. Therefore, fire prevention activities should be done all year round and not just during fire prevention month.

Fire Service is the fundamental civic service to protect citizens from irrecoverable, heavy losses of lives and property. Hotspot analysis of structure fires is essential to estimate people and property at risk. Hotspot analysis for the peak period of last decade, using a GIS-based spatial analyst and statistical techniques through the Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) and Getis-Ord Gi* with Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation is performed, revealing fire risk zones at the city ward micro level. Using remote sensing, outputs of hotspot analysis are integrated with the built environment of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) to quantify the accurate built-up areas and population density of identified fire risk zones. KDE delineates 34 wards as hotspots, while Getis-Ord Gi* delineates 17 wards within the KDE hotspot, the central core areas having the highest built-up and population density. A temporal analysis reveals the maximum fires on Thursday during the hot afternoon hours from 12 noon to 5 p.m. The study outputs help decision makers for effective fire prevention and protection by deploying immediate resource allocations and proactive planning reassuring sustainable urban development. Furthermore, updating the requirement of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) to build urban resilient infrastructure in accord with the Smart City Mission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas (PAs) are one of the main strategies to preserve tropical biodiversity. However, their viability is compromised by the impacts of a variety of threats. To gain a more integrated view of how different threats affect them, individually and in combination, we analyzed the spatial distribution of forest loss (2010–2015), human density, incidence of fires, and mining activities in four PAs (Cordón Pico Loro-Paxtal: CPL, El Triunfo Biosphere Reserve: ETBR, La Sepultura Biosphere Reserve: SEBR and La Frailescana: LF) located in the biodiversity stronghold of the Sierra Madre de Chiapas (SMC), Mexico. We integrated these threats in a Human Pressure Index (HPI, ranging from 0 to 1, where 1 is the highest human pressure). We found that the SEBR and LF were affected mainly by forest loss (13.43% and 11.67% forest area lost, respectively) and fire incidence (between 0.02-0.73 and 0–0.81 fire hotspots/km2, respectively). On the other hand, the ETBR and CPL had lower forest loss and fire incidence but higher mining presence (16.2% and 84.8% of their area involving this activity, respectively), and population density (on average 0.6 and 8.6 inhabitants/km2, respectively). The highest HPI values (>0.6) occurred in the northern and the southern extremes of the study area encompassing 42.6%, 54.5% and 54.1% of the extent of the SEBR, LF, and CPL, respectively, putting in high risk important areas to maintain landscape connectivity. Despite occurring in the same region (SMC) focal PAs are affected differently by the assessed threats. A nonintegrated analysis of threats affecting PAs in biodiversity strongholds such as the SMC risks producing a biased view of their intensity, reducing the possibility to planning more effective conservation strategies.

Occasional precipitation plays a vital role in reducing the effect of wildfire. This precipitation is especially important for countries like Nepal, where wildfires are a common seasonal event. Approximately 0.1 million hectare of forest area is affected annually due to wildfires in active fire season. The study on the relation of these forms of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence is still lacking. This research was objectively carried out to examine the correlation of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spector-Radiometer (MODIS) satellite images and precipitation records for 15 years gathered from Department of Hydrology and Metrology were used as input data for this study. The images were analyzed by using ArcGIS function while the precipitation records were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Science (SPSS) program. The linear regression model was applied to find correlation of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. Analysis revealed decreasing trend of precipitation in study area. We found significant correlation (p

Most fire-related injuries and fatalities in the UK, and other parts of the world, continue to occur during fires in the home – incidents where it is acknowledged that human factors play a contributing role. Yet the field of fire safety lacks an up-to-date review of the literature on human behaviour during fires in domestic spaces. Given there is now a growing body of work looking at human behaviour in dwelling fires, a review of the literature in this area is timely. Drawing from published studies, this paper sets out what is currently known about human behaviour in dwelling fires and highlights the differences that appear to exist between these spaces and what is known and accepted about human behaviour in public, commercial and industrial spaces. This paper then goes on to consider the nature of “fire risk”, arguing that much of the work in this area continues to conflate, or fails to recognise the existence of, different types of risk profiles, instead considering fire risk as a single type of risk, based mainly on factors related to fatalities. However, research findings point towards fire risk as at least three separate forms: the risk of a fire occurring, the risk of fire injury and the risk of fire fatality. By drawing together the literature on human behaviour in dwelling fires this paper argues that those who survive dwelling fires cannot be considered as “near miss fatalities”, but instead must be treated as a separate and distinct group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Occasional precipitation plays a vital role in reducing the effect of wildfire. This precipitation is especially important for countries like Nepal, where wildfires are a common seasonal event. Approximately 0.1 million hectare of forest area is affected annually due to wildfires in active fire season. The study on the relation of these forms of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence is still lacking. This research was objectively carried out to examine the correlation of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spector-Radiometer (MODIS) satellite images and precipitation records for 15 years gathered from Department of Hydrology and Metrology were used as input data for this study. The images were analyzed by using ArcGIS function while the precipitation records were analyzed by using Statistical Package for the Social Science (SPSS) program. The linear regression model was applied to find correlation of occasional precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. Analysis revealed decreasing trend of precipitation in study area. We found significant correlation (p<0.05) of precipitation with wildfire incidence and burnt area. Findings will be useful for policy makers, implementers and researchers to manage wildfire in sustainable basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores effects of climate change and fuel management on unplanned fire activity in ecosystems representing contrasting extremes of the moisture availability spectrum (mesic and arid). Simulation modelling examined unplanned fire activity (fire incidence and area burned, and the area burned by large fires) for alternate climate scenarios and prescribed burning levels in: (i) a cool, moist temperate forest and wet moorland ecosystem in south-west Tasmania (mesic); and (ii) a spinifex and mulga ecosystem in central Australia (arid). Contemporary fire activity in these case study systems is limited, respectively, by fuel availability and fuel amount. For future climates, unplanned fire incidence and area burned increased in the mesic landscape, but decreased in the arid landscape in accordance with predictions based on these limiting factors. Area burned by large fires (greater than the 95th percentile of historical, unplanned fire size) increased with future climates in the mesic landscape. Simulated prescribed burning was more effective in reducing unplanned fire activity in the mesic landscape. However, the inhibitory effects of prescribed burning are predicted to be outweighed by climate change in the mesic landscape, whereas in the arid landscape prescribed burning reinforced a predicted decline in fire under climate change. The potentially contrasting direction of future changes to fire will have fundamentally different consequences for biodiversity in these contrasting ecosystems, and these will need to be accommodated through contrasting, innovative management solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fires in urban areas can cause significant economic, physical and psychological damage. Despite this, there has been a comparative lack of research into the spatial and temporal analysis of fire incidence in urban contexts. In this paper, we redress this gap through an exploration of the association of fire incidence to weather, calendar events and socio-economic characteristics in South-East Queensland, Australia using innovative technique termed the quad plot. Analysing trends in five fire incident types, including malicious false alarms (hoax calls), residential buildings, secondary (outdoor), vehicle and suspicious fires, results suggest that risk associated with all is greatly increased during school holidays and during long weekends. For all fire types the lowest risk of incidence was found to occur between one and six a.m. It was also found that there was a higher fire incidence in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods and there was some evidence to suggest that there may be a compounding impact of high temperatures in such areas. We suggest that these findings may be used to guide the operations of fire services through spatial and temporal targeting to better utilise finite resources, help mitigate risk and reduce casualties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In our previous research we applied spatial statistics and regression analysis to explore the relationships between the types of socio-economic factors that are associated with different fire incident types for an area of South Wales, UK. In this paper, we extend this analysis by using a comparative approach applying regression analysis to examine intra-urban trends in fire incidence using the case studies of Brisbane (Australia) and Cardiff (United Kingdom). Whilst drawing attention to the problems faced by researchers using spatial data in comparative contexts, this has revealed some important similarities and differences in associations, for example in relation to the residential patterns of the two cities which is reflective of their respective wider urban geography. We conclude by demonstrating the differences in trends between Cardiff and Brisbane and by highlighting outcomes from this research that are of relevance to policy makers in urban contexts. The latter could include for example those charged with identifying high risk communities, designing possible intervention strategies such as safety campaigns or with implementing educational programmes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The temporal and spatial structure of 332 404 daily fire-start records from the western United States for he period 1986 though 1996 is illustrated using several complimentary visualisation techniques. We supplement maps and time series plots with Hovmöller diagrams that reduce the spatial dimensionality of the daily data in order to reveal he underlying space-time structure. The mapped distributions of all lightning- and human-started fires during the 11- rear interval show similar first-order patterns that reflect the broad-scale distribution of vegetation across the West and he annual cycle of climate. Lightning-started fires are concentrated in the summer half-year and occur in widespread outbreaks that last a few days and reflect coherent weather related controls. In contrast, fires started by humans occur throughout the year and tend to be concentrated in regions surrounding large-population centres or intensive-agricultural seas. Although the primary controls of human-started fires are their location relative to burnable fuel and the level of human activity, spatially coherent, weather-related variations in their incidence can also be noted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The application of mapping and spatial analytical techniques to explore geographical patterns of crime incidence is well established. In contrast, the analysis of operational incident data routinely collected by fire brigades has received relatively less research attention, certainly in the UK academic literature. The aim of this paper is to redress this balance through the application of spatial analytical techniques that permit an exploration of the spatial dynamics of fire incidents and their relationships with socio-economic variables. By examining patterns for different fire incident types, including household fires, vehicle fires, secondary fires and malicious false alarms in relation to 2001 Census of Population data for an area of South Wales, we demonstrate the potential of such techniques to reveal spatial patterns that may be worthy of further contextual study. Further research is needed to establish how transferable these findings are to other geographical settings and how replicable the findings are at different geographical scales. The paper concludes by drawing attention to the current gaps in knowledge in analysing trends in fire incidence and proposes an agenda to advance such research using spatial analytical techniques. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The article presents a study which assesses the relative importance of human-related and environmental variables in knowing the distribution of the number of fires and area burned in the State of Chiapas in years of normal and extreme climatic condition. The causal relationships among environmental, fire, and socioeconomic variables in Chiapas using path analysis is stated. It is inferred that poverty levels contribute major roles in the arboreal fire incidence in non- El Niño years

Human-started fires represent the vast majority of wildfires in Mediterranean countries. The current expansion of human settlements into fire-prone territories has led to the creation of landscapes where anthropogenic developments merge with wildland areas. In this context, understanding the role of distance from built-up areas in shaping coarse-scale wildfire spatial patterns is a major concern. Proximity to cities has become an important factor that may increase the probability of wildfires in wildland-urban interfaces. To this issue, we developed an assessment of wildfire distribution in Italy over an 8-year period (2007–2014) to quantify fire occurrence and recurrence as a function of distance from built-up areas. Our findings suggest a positive relationship between the distance from built-up areas and fire incidence (i.e., ratio between burnt forest area and total forest area), whereas a negative relation was found between distance from built-up areas and fire frequency and recurrence; thus, there are more recurring yet smaller sized-fires near built-up areas. Fifty percent of fire events and more than two-thirds of recurrent fires occur within 200 m from built-up areas. On the other hand, the considerable amount of such fire events never reaches an incidence higher than 10% in flat areas and 30% in hilly and mountainous areas. More broadly, quantitative knowledge about where fires occur is essential to ensure appropriate fire management throughout large territories. With this in mind, our investigation intends to provide a solid base for further studies in landscapes with a high component of human-dominated land use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]