Search

Employment relations in Europe today differ from how they were prior to the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as key terms and conditions (e.g., wages) and sectors of economic activity (e.g., platform work and the green economy) are now subject to direct political intervention by the European institutions. Transnational (horizontal) competition within the Single European Market has long provided a context for national employment relations in Europe, and various national institutions impacted workers' rights and conditions of employment. Under the new economic governance (NEG) regime triggered by the financial crisis, political (vertical) intervention in employment relations created strong pressure toward the commodification of labor. The COVID pandemic involved policymaking in the opposite (decommodifying) direction. That said, and as the articles in this special issue clearly demonstrate, commodifying pressures are still strong, and the full realization of Social Europe is arguably as elusive as ever. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are recessions drivers of structural change? Here we investigate employment dynamics in the UK and show that a re-allocation of labour between industrial sectors in times of crisis induces an acceleration in structural change. Our key hypothesis is that cities with industrial baskets that exhibit strong potential for inter-industry labour mobility are more resilient as they can shift workers between sectors resulting in employment growth in some sectors — which in turn induces structural change during an economic crisis. Probing this hypothesis, we find that UK cities experienced a sharp increase in the rate of structural change at the city level around 2009 which coincided with an increase in inter-sectoral job transitions during the recession (2008–11) which persisted for years afterwards. To shed light on this, we deploy an econometric model to show that local employment in skill-related sectors, which captures the potential for inter-industry labour mobility, is most strongly associated with city-industry employment growth during the recession period. • We investigate structural change and economic resilience during economic crises. • We focus on the role of labour mobility between industries requiring similar skills. • We posit cities with skill-related industries better re-allocate labour in a crisis. • Validating this, we find inter-industry job switching peaked during the 2008 crisis. • And that industries in cities with many skill-related sectors experienced employment growth. • Labour mobility plays a role in structural change and resilience in economic crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses the working conditions of highly educated mobile workers in five major European Union (EU) markets. The study uses the overeducation indicator, analyzing its transformation over the period 2005–2016. Using annual data from the European Union Labour Force Survey, the results reveal very different conditions between home country nationals and mobile workers from newer (enlargement)—EU-13—and older—EU-15—member states from the perspective of successful economic and social integration. The EU enlargement process has not completely removed the penalty for educated workers from EU-13 countries, but it has significantly reduced it, as has the premium received by mobile workers from other EU-15 member states, thus leading to their better integration and greater equality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several countries are experiencing challenges in maintaining standard haemodialysis services for people with kidney failure. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the health profile of people receiving haemodialysis and to identify factors associated with interdialytic weight gain. Design: A cross‐sectional study. Participants: A total of 166 adults with kidney failure and receiving haemodialysis for at least 3 months were included. Measurements: A structured chart audit form collected, demographic and haemodialysis treatment characteristics, recent biochemical and haematological results, and prescribed treatment regimens from clinical records. Data were analysed descriptively. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated to identify independent risk factors for interdialytic weight gain. Results: Mean age was 52 years (SD = 12.5), over half were male (60.2%, n = 100), and most were receiving 4 h of haemodialysis once per week (87.3%, n = 145). Approximately half (51.8%, n = 86) had an interdialytic weight gain >2%. Being female (OR = 3.39; 95% CI, 1.51–7.61), increased comorbidities (OR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.22–1.84) and having BMI outside of the normal range (overweight/obese [OR = 8.49; 95% CI, 3.58–20.13] or underweight [OR = 4.61; 95% CI, 1.39–15.31]) were independent risk factors for increased interdialytic weight gain. Conclusion: Most patients were receiving 4 h of haemodialysis once per week although only modest alterations in potassium, phosphate, and fluid status were observed. Understanding the patient profile and predictors of interdialytic weight gain will inform the development of self‐management interventions to optimise clinician support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the effect of bank liquidity supply on the corporate liquidity management choice between cash and lines of credit and the real effects of liquidity. By exploiting an exogenous shock to U.S. banks induced by the 1998 Russian crisis, I find that the liquidity shock has a significantly negative impact on U.S. firms' reliance on credit lines relative to cash. Firms who initiate their last precrisis credit lines from banks exposed to the crisis (treated firms) have a lower likelihood of obtaining new credit lines during the crisis relative to the precrisis clients of nonexposed banks (control firms). Moreover, firms hoard cash and cut investment after the shock, but the effects are concentrated among firms whose precrisis credit lines are maturing in the crisis. These results suggest that a shortage of credit lines forces firms to substitute cash savings for investment, indicating an important role of precautionary savings motives in transmitting liquidity shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between changing house prices and assessed value in the Detroit Michigan region. Using parcel-level data from 2008 through 2016, we construct a Hedonic Housing Price Index and an Assessed Value Index for 120 Michigan assessing jurisdictions in the five-county region surrounding Detroit (Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Washtenaw, and Wayne). Our findings are consistent with the literature, indicating at least a three-year lag between changes in house prices and changes in property assessments. Communities considered to be distressed tended to over-assess properties before the crisis, but these communities recalibrated assessments to better align with market conditions after the financial crisis. Our evaluation also shows that while assessed values decreased more slowly than housing prices fell during the crisis, assessed values tended to fall to even deeper levels than housing prices over a longer time horizon. JEL Codes: H71, H83, G01 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the market structure of the Hungarian bank market and the effects of the financial crisis of 2008 on it. With a static and a dynamic panel model we estimate the elasticity of total revenues with respect to changes in input prices so that we can determine the market structure based on the Panzar and Rosse methodology for the period between 2003 and 2020. We test the input price elasticity according to the balance sheet and profit and loss data of the top 13 companies. The results show that the Hungarian bank market was a monopolistic competition or a monopoly market in long run equilibrium. To see the effects of the financial crisis we use three subsamples, furthermore we estimate and test the H-statistic with a fixed effect model. During the examined period the level of factor price elasticity increased in time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature has examined the relationship between financial inclusion and financial stability, but no studies have examined the relationship between financial inclusion and financial crisis. This study examines the effect of financial inclusion on financial crisis using data from 28 countries from 2006 to 2017. Three stylised facts were established based on real‐world observation. One, the level of financial inclusion, in terms of number of bank depositors, decreases during domestic financial crisis. Two, the level of financial inclusion, in terms of ATM penetration, does not decrease during global and domestic financial crises. Three, the level of financial inclusion, in terms of number of bank branch, decreases during global and domestic financial crises and the contraction is stronger during a domestic financial crisis. Using the panel regression, logit and probit regression estimation methods, the empirical results show that low levels of financial inclusion, measured by fewer bank depositors and fewer bank branches, increase the likelihood that a financial crisis will occur. Low levels of financial inclusion, measured by fewer bank depositors, increase the likelihood that a financial crisis will occur in low financial‐inclusion countries. In contrast, greater ATM penetration increases the likelihood that a financial crisis will occur in low financial‐inclusion countries. The interaction analyses show that all indices of financial inclusion have a joint positive impact on financial crisis, implying that high levels of financial inclusion increases the likelihood that a financial crisis will occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the effect of credit supply constraints on R&D conditional on the financial strength of firms and heterogeneity in the restrictions in the supply of external financing. The financial strength of firms and access to external financing are identified by an exogenously calculated rating index. Restrictions in the supply of external financing are determined by the specific time period (crisis vs. non-crisis) and the balance sheet strength of the firm's main bank in terms of bank capital. Our results support the theoretical prediction that financing constraints negatively affect R&D. We find that firms with a lower financial strength reduce R&D to a stronger extent in times of stress on financial markets and when the firm faces restrictions in external financing. Additionally, the effect does not persist over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has concluded that foreign trade is a key factor shaping the urbanization process in developing countries. Yet the empirical evidence is still in its infancy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by using the Financial Crisis of 2008 as a quasi-experiment to examine how trade shocks have affected urbanization in China. We find that such shocks have reduced the change in the urbanization rate by 0.4%. These results are robust after controlling for other factors that affect urbanization. We explore the underlying mechanisms and find that trade shocks reduce the urban – rural income gap by lowering the income of urban residents and slowing down the urbanization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What caused the 1929 crash of the New York Stock Exchange? This paper quantitatively studies liquidity during the 1929 crash of the NYSE. I evidence that the crash represented a liquidity crisis due to the liquidation of brokers' margin loans. Applying recent estimators of effective spreads and liquidity conditions from contemporary finance literature suggests a four‐fold increase in spreads during the crash at the aggregate level. At the individual stock level, quoted bid‐ask spreads suggest that liquidity explains one‐fifth of the variance in daily stock returns during the crash. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last two decades have seen an increase in the number and intensity of shocks and crises. The financial crisis of 2008/2009 and the COVID-19 crisis of 2020/2021 have led to economic recessions. During the COVID-19 crisis, national borders and the impact of crises in border regions were often the subject of political debate and media coverage. Border-regional resilience has only been discussed in the academic discourse for the last few years. This article uses a diverse set of socio-economic indicators to examine the (border)–regional resilience of German regions in the wake of the financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. A distinction is made between border and non-border regions, urban and rural regions, and regions in the old and new German federal states. The results show, first, that the COVID-19 crisis had a stronger socio-economic impact than the financial crisis. Second, border regions tended to be more affected by the financial crisis than non-border regions. Surprisingly, this was not the case for the border-specific COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, the study shows that it is not so much the border location that determines regional resilience, but rather the socio-economic level, the degree of urbanization and the associated embeddedness in global networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to measure the degree of volatility comovement between stock market liquidity and informational efficiency across Asia, Europe, North-South America, Africa, and the Pacific Ocean over three decades. In particular, the authors analyze the extent of the time-varying nexus between different aspects of stock market liquidity and multifractal scaling properties of the stock return series across various regions and diversified market conditions. This study further investigates several factors altering the degree of dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between the efficiency and liquidity of the domestic stock markets. Design/methodology/approach: The study measures five aspects of stock market liquidity – tightness, depth, breadth, immediacy, and adjusted immediacy. The authors evaluate the multifractal scaling properties of the stock return series to measure the level of stock market efficiency across the regions and diversified market conditions. The study uses the dynamic conditional correlation-multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity framework to quantify the degree of volatility comovement between liquidity and efficiency over the period. Findings: The study finds the presence of stronger volatility comovement between inefficiency and illiquidity due to the price impact characteristics of the stock markets irrespective of different regions and diversified market conditions. The extent of time-variation increased following the shock periods, indicating the significant role of the financial crisis in increasing the volatility comovement between inefficiency and illiquidity. The highest degree of time-varying correlation is observed in the developed stock markets of Northwestern and Northern Europe compared to the regional and emerging counterparts. On the other hand, weak DCCs are observed in the emerging stock markets of Europe. Originality/value: The output of the present study assists investors in identifying diversification opportunities across the regions. Additionally, the study has significant implications for market regulators, aiding in predicting future troughs and peaks. The prediction, in turn, helps formulate capital market development plans during dynamic economic situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the application of spectral methods in risk management as means of validating VaR models. We propose to replace earlier spectral VaR tests with the test based on the Anderson–Darling statistic. Based on assumptions relevant to VaR failure analysis, we experimentally prove that the Anderson–Darling spectral test displays strong power to reject inaccurate VaR. Its main advantage over the existing methods is the combination of two features: the lack of tendency to overreject properly predicted VaR and high sensitivity to limited evidence of incorrectness in VaR predictions. Thus, this test may play an important role in times of change in volatility dynamics, such as outbreaks of financial crises. We confirm this empirically, based on data starting before the subprime mortgage crisis, running through the COVID-19 pandemic, until the outbreak of the Russo–Ukrainian war. We give a number of examples when this method revealed the inaccuracy of VaR predictions not discovered by com- monly used tests. We also show that the proposed spectral test never failed at finding the models indicated as incorrect by other tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides evidence on how bank performance and strategies vary with the degree of bank internationalization using data for 113 countries during 2000–15. Bank internationalization is associated with lower valuations and lower returns on equity. After the global financial crisis, international banks were revalued particularly if they had stable funding in the form of deposits and if they had more generous deposit insurance coverage. For international banks headquartered in developing countries, bank internationalization is related negatively with the cyclicality of their domestic credit growth with respect to home country GDP growth, smoothing local downturns. In contrast, if the international bank is from a high-income country investing in a developing country, its subsidiary bank lending is relatively procyclical, which can be destabilizing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the public comments submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), 2010–2014, in response to proposed rules for implementing the Dodd‐Frank reforms. By addressing a fine‐grained typology of commenting organizations to a topic model of the combined comments, we illuminate a new pattern of public engagement in financial regulation. Contrary to the economic concept of regulatory capture, our data show no sharp divide between the suppliers of complex derivatives (the dealer banks) and their customers in other parts of the finance industry. In keeping with the general concept of financialization—but contrary to its strongest versions—our data show distinctly delimited evidence of a convergence between the banks and other sectors. Instead of either capture or all‐embracing financialization, the comments submitted to the CFTC display an overriding opposition in the justifications used by commenters to explain their preferences. Commenters from the financial services and allied sectors consistently adopt a language of technical legitimation. Commenters in agriculture, livestock, retail energy, and many nonmarket organizations adopt a language of moral justification. The clarity of the divide between these two idioms indicates that the underlying purposes of new financial instruments are now being questioned. Even in the realm of esoteric financial instruments such as derivatives, the moral economy of market competition is once again subject to debate among market participants as well as observers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study delves into the impact of the 2008 Global Crisis on the competition between the wholesalers and unregistered firms in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. The survey data from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance (BEEPSII and BEEPSIV) conducted by the World Bank in 2008 (crisis) and 2013 (post-crisis) were utilized. The survey covers 29 countries in the region. The results of the nonparametric tests show that significantly more wholesalers experienced competition against unregistered firms in 2008 when compared to 2013. While approximately half of the wholesalers experienced informal sector competition in 2008, in 2013, only around one-third of wholesalers experienced informal sector competition. This post-crisis decline is seen for both the five Central Asian economies (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) that are examined and the other transition economies. When wholesalers are classified into different categories based on size, independence from a larger firm, type of firm (partnership, sole proprietorship, etc.), gender of the owner, gender of the top manager, experience of the top manager, and having an internationally recognized quality certification, it is observed that competition against unregistered firms declined in 2013 for all types of wholesalers except for partnerships and larger firms. The results show that, on a scale of 0 to 4 (0 being no informal sector competition and 4 being very severe informal sector competition), the mean severity of competition against unregistered firms was 1.52 in 2008 and 1.18 in 2013. However, this decline in the severity of informal sector competition post-crisis is not seen for the five Central Asian economies that are examined. Also, when different firm types are examined, limited partnerships and firms that are part of a larger firm did not experience a decline in informal sector competition. To find the determinants of competition between the wholesalers and unregistered or informal firms, binary logistic regressions were used. The results show that smaller firms without an internationally recognized certification are more susceptible to informal sector competition in the Central Asian economies, whereas larger, shareholding firms are more prone to informal sector competition in the other transition economies.

The paper explains the origin of the financial crisis in one country and its spread to other countries—contagion, in a dynamic model of international capital inflow. The origin of the crisis is rooted in this model in the common international loan market, and crisis can occur even when the countries are not interconnected via bi-lateral or multi-lateral trade and commerce, when connected via trade or commerce the contagion hits with a stronger effect. The paper introduces country-level heterogeneity of risk of default for individual countries in the borrowing group which generates interesting cases of the contagion effect. A change in the risk of default of an individual country adversely affects the total supply in the international loan market leading to crises in other countries via increased international interest rates. It has an enhanced effect when the risk of default depends on the lagged domestic productivity of the borrowing country. The model can explain various episodes of financial crisis in a common framework and can be usefully employed for policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ÖZ: Bu araştırmanın amacı, küresel finansal krizin muhasebe ihtiyatlılığı üzerine etkisinin incelenmesidir. Bu doğrultuda 2005-2012 yılları arasında Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören şirketlerin finansal verileri analiz edilmiştir. Analize dahil edilen şirketlerin finansal verileri, Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu ile Thomson Refinitiv Datastream programı kullanılarak temin edilmiştir. Çalışmada 2005-2007 dönemleri kriz öncesi dönemi, 2008-2009 dönemleri kriz dönemi, 2010-2012 dönemleri ise kriz sonrası dönemleri olarak kategorize edilerek analize dahil edilmiştir. Çalışmada muhasebe ihtiyatlılığının ölçümünde piyasa değerinin defter değerine oranı ile C skor kullanılmıştır. Analizde kullanılan değişkenler için birim kök ve çoklu bağlantı testleri yapılmıştır. Krizin ihtiyatlılık üzerine etkisinin tespitinde panel veri analizi ve Driscoll-Kraay dirençli tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, küresel finansal krizin muhasebe ihtiyatlılık düzeyi üzerinde etkili olduğunu, kriz döneminde ihtiyatlılık düzeyinin azaldığını, kriz döneminden sonra ise kriz öncesine ve kriz dönemine göre ihtiyatlılığın daha fazla arttığını göstermektedir. Çalışmada finansal kriz dönemi ile muhasebe ihtiyatlılığı üzerinde negatif yönlü bir ilişki, kriz döneminden sonra ise pozitif yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the global financial crisis on accounting conservatism. Accordingly, the financial data of companies traded on Borsa Istanbul between 2005 and 2012 are analyzed. The financial data of the companies included in the analysis were obtained using the Public Disclosure Platform and Thomson Refinitiv Datastream program. In the study, 2005-2007 periods were categorized as pre-crisis period, 2008-2009 periods as crisis period and 2010-2012 periods as post-crisis period. In the study, the ratio of market capitalization to book value and C score are used to measure accounting conservatism. Unit root and multicollinearity tests were conducted for the variables used in the analysis. Panel data analysis and Driscoll-Kraay robust estimator are used to determine the impact of the crisis on conservatism. The findings show that the global financial crisis has an impact on the level of accounting conservatism, that the level of conservatism decreased during the crisis period, and increased more post-crisis period compared to the pre-crisis and crisis period. In the study, a negative relationship was found between the financial crisis period and accounting conservatism, while a positive relationship was found in post-crisis period.

Abstract We propose a new predictor—the innovation in the daily return minimum in the U.S. stock market ( $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US )—for predicting international stock market returns. Using monthly data for a wide range of 17 MSCI international stock markets during the period spanning over half a century from January 1972 to July 2022, we find that $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US have strong predictive power for returns in most international stock markets: $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US negatively predicts the next-month stock market returns. The results remain robust after controlling for a number of macroeconomic predictors and conducting subsample and panel data analyses, indicating that $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US has significant predictive power and it outperforms other variables in international markets. Notably, $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US demonstrates excellent predictive power even during the periods driven by financial upheavals (e.g., Global Financial Crisis and European Sovereign Debt Crisis). Both panel regressions and out-of-sample tests also support the robust predictive performance of $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US . The predictive power, however, disappears during the non-financial crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic, which is originated from the health sector rather than the financial sector. The results provide a new perspective on U.S. extreme indicator in stock market return predictability.

This paper explores the mathematical dynamics of consumer spending during a financial crisis using opponent process theory (OPT). Traditionally applied in psychology, OPT explains how initial emotional responses are followed by counteracting reactions to restore equilibrium. This study models the short-term boost in consumer spending and subsequent economic adjustments. Utilizing differential equations to represent these processes, this paper provides insights into the interplay between immediate policy effects and longer-term economic consequences. We focus on the United States (US) response to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis in this study. Results show evidence of diminishing response from prolonged stimuli due to demand saturation, resource allocation inefficiencies, and agent adaptation. Monetary stimuli may inflate debt/prices, outweighing benefits, and structural issues persist despite stimuli. Confidence and expectations impact response because perceived ineffectiveness weakens impact over time. Thus, while stimuli can initially boost activity, their sustained impact demands careful consideration of economic dynamics and agents’ responses.

The 2008 Global Crisis had profound impacts on economies worldwide, prompting significant scrutiny of various institutional frameworks, including court systems. During this period, legal systems faced unprecedented challenges in addressing the ensuing turmoil. Courts were busy with cases related to foreclosures, bankruptcies, and financial misconduct. Due to the exposed weaknesses in regulatory oversight, reforms were made to improve accountability, transparency, and efficiency within judicial systems. Transition economies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia bore a significant brunt of the crisis and its subsequent reform endeavors. In this study, we evaluate the perspectives of Eastern European and Central Asian retailers on their court systems during and after the 2008 global crisis. We assess how many of them dealt with the legal system during and after the crisis, how quickly the cases moved through the court system, how fair and impartial the court was, and how successfully the court could enforce its rulings. To evaluate the impact of the global crisis on retailers’ views on the court system, we compare the crisis period to the post-crisis period. The World Bank’s BEEPSII and BEEPSIV surveys performed in Eastern Europe and Central Asia are used as our crisis and post-crisis samples. To compare the crisis period responses to the post-crisis ones, we use nonparametric tests (i.e. the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon and the Chi-square tests). Our results show that, after the crisis, fewer retailers went to court, when compared to the crisis period. This finding can be seen as positive. We also find that, after the crisis, retailers were more optimistic about judicial impartiality and case processing speed in their respective countries, compared to the crisis period. On the other hand, our results show that retailers’ assessments of the court’s ability to implement its rulings in these countries did not seem to change after the crisis. These findings have important policy implications. Policymakers can use these findings to take precautions before a global crisis hits. They will know that a global economic/financial crisis affects the volume of cases, courts’ fairness, and processing speed. Therefore, they can hire more employees to deal with the upcoming problems with the volume and the processing speed, and they can increase the scrutiny of the system to protect the system’s fairness.

The purpose of this study is to focus on, namely, the international financial reporting standards (IFRS) or local generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) effects of financial reporting as a corporate governance mechanism on mergers and acquisitions (M&As) for banking institutions during the global financial crisis. I investigate the characteristics of bank financial statements before the start of the global crisis, which helps to explain the relationships between the accounting standards and the global financial crisis. The observations, which are based on 3,178 deals in a sample period, are crucially important for corporate governance and bank performance. The results from our analysis are robust to a wide variety of modifications in our research design and are corroborated by descriptive statistics, one-way ANOVA and a two-sample t-test on a sample of banks that voluntarily adopted IFRS for M&As. The find that IFRS-based monitoring of banks M&As in terms of higher quality financial reporting is negatively linked with bank performance, whereas local GAAP-based monitoring of banks’ M&A is positively associated with accounting performance. Finally, our main results for higher quality financial reporting under local GAAP or IFRS generally hold after controlling for various analyses and relationships between account standards and the financial crisis. Financial reporting standards setting a corporate governance mechanism are considered since it was impacted recently during the global financial crisis and became a great matter of concern. The value of this paper is determined by an empirical investigation of the relationships between bank performance and accounting and financial reporting standards in the context of the global economy.

This study investigates the transformation of competitive dynamics between formal sector retailers and their informal sector counterparts in Eastern European and Central Asian countries after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. The absence of extensive government bailouts in these regions intensified the economic repercussions of the crisis. This study used data from the BEEPS II and BEEPS IV (i.e. Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey) surveys conducted by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank with a focus on informal competition in Eastern Europe and Central Asia based on data from owners or top-managers of companies working in this region. To investigate the impact of the global crisis on informal competition for retailers, survey results in 2008 ("crisis period") were compared with the data in 2013 ("post-crisis period"). Non-parametric tests, specifically the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon tests, were used to compare the 2008 and 2013 results. Binary logistic regressions were used to identify factors influencing the perception of competition from the informal sector (Pearson correlation coefficients and assessed Variance Inflation Factors to detect multicollinearity issues). Findings reveal a significant shift post-crisis shift with a reduced proportion of formal sector retailers competing with informal firms. Notably, this effect is statistically insignificant for retailers with sole proprietorships and partnerships and those with internationally recognized quality certifications. Moreover, research highlights a diminished perception of informal competitors as substantial hindrances to retailers' business operations post-crisis. However, this observation is not statistically significant for retail businesses structured as partnerships. Logistic regression indicates that smaller firms, firms led by a more experienced top manager, and firms with a female top manager are more prone to perceive competition from the informal sector. Furthermore, this study delves into the factors shaping retailers' perceptions across post-Soviet and other transition countries, revealing differences in the impact of firm size and female ownership. This nuanced investigation contributes depth to the current literature concerning the interconnections between formal and informal retail sectors. It offers a comparative analysis focusing on post-Soviet states and other transitioning nations in Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Six financial markets were verified contagious to Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC): domestic equity market (SSEC and China COSCO Shipping Co.), domestic currency market, international currency market, global shipping market, commodity future market and bulk shipping market (BDI) which regarded as a leading indicator of future economic growth instead of Li Keqiang index. This research analyzed intermarket contagion from March 14, 2008 to March 31, 2018. MIDAS-GARCH model was adopted to identify the spillover effect among the Shanghai Stock market and inter-market indices. The findings of this study were concluded as follows: (1) The commodity, global shipping market had significant volatility transmission to SSEC both before and after the crash crisis. (2) The volatility of domestic currency market was significantly contagious to SSEC only after the crash. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the comparative role of sovereign default risk and several high-frequency macrofinancial indicators that may explain the drop in European renewable energy stocks observed during the 2008 financial crisis and the European debt crisis. We use a two-state time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model to investigate how they impact the bull and bear market trends of renewable stocks. Our main finding is that public financing conditions, captured by sovereign default risks, play a key role in both market regimes, while the other variables affect the renewable energy stocks only in calm or turmoil periods. Moreover, sovereign risk is identified as the main determinant of the European renewable energy stock dynamics in both regimes in the period under review. Finally, we suggest that this effect may be due to the sensitivity of investors to the energy policy uncertainty, entailed by such a pressure on public finances. JEL Classification: G01, G15, Q42 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses quantitatively the impact of COVID-19 on the Capesize as well as the Panamax sectors using the event analysis method based on the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Different components are decomposed from the freight rates time series. The decomposed dominant modes manage to capture the event of COVID-19, accounting for the major movements of the freight market. The event of 2008 financial crisis is utilized as a benchmark to analyze the impact of COVID-19. Compared to the 2008 financial crisis, the dominant modes during COVID-19 rebound in quite a short time. Factors contributing to the decline of freight rates during the COVID-19 pandemic are relatively simpler than during the 2008 financial crisis, indicating that the COVID-19 should not have a long-lasting impact on the dry bulk shipping market. The results not only prove that the method used in this paper is capable of evaluating the impact of future events on the freight market but also provide some practical implications to the maritime industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When Greece was hit by the global financial crisis in 2009, families with children paid the heaviest toll. In this article, we draw on individual interviews and focus groups with 17 sixth graders, six teachers and six parents at a primary school in the Magnesia region. We use a relational approach to unpacking everyday austerity as it is lived, felt and experienced by Greek children. The empirical material shows how children's well‐being is conditioned by the well‐being of their families, where emotional stress spills over through witnessing parents' worries. Relational agency enables children to contribute to adversity relief, which seems to enhance not only their well‐being but also their resilience, as it is embedded in relations of mutual empowerment and development. Lastly, the study documents how macro policies of austerity measures trickle into the fabric of children's everyday lives and shape familial and intergenerational practices of care and responsibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The time-varying kernel density estimation relies on two free parameters: the bandwidth and the discount factor. We propose to select these parameters so as to minimize a criterion consistent with the traditional requirements of the validation of a probability density forecast. These requirements are both the uniformity and the independence of the so-called probability integral transforms, which are the forecast time-varying cumulated distributions applied to the observations. We thus build a new numerical criterion incorporating both the uniformity and independence properties by the mean of an adapted Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistic. We apply this method to financial markets during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis. We determine the time-varying density of daily price returns of several stock indices and, using various divergence statistics, we are able to describe the chronology of the crisis as well as regional disparities. For instance, we observe a more limited impact of COVID-19 on financial markets in China, a strong impact in the US, and a slow recovery in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been financial crises for as long as there have been economies; such crises have significant effects on the global economy. Their effects have become an attractive topic that produces much research every year. The goal of this paper is to use the bibliometrics method to explore research trends in the study of financial crises, with a focus on evaluating the caliber of research outputs by their mutual impacts and citation status. Data acquired from Scopus are used in the study. VOSViewer was used to visualize the networks and distribution of the data obtained from 5,011 articles in the financial crisis subject that were written between 1990 and 2022. The statistical findings offer a summary of citation patterns related to financial crises, including the most frequently cited publications and its network, keyword distribution, co-authorship status, bibliographic coupling analysis, and the most prestigious journals. This study aims to identify the developments and trends in financial crisis research. This can aid academics in developing a thorough grasp of this area and serve as a reference for the use of financial crisis visualization techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics is the property of Electronic Turkish Studies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We propose a new predictor—the innovation in the daily return minimum in the U.S. stock market ( Δ MIN US )—for predicting international stock market returns. Using monthly data for a wide range of 17 MSCI international stock markets during the period spanning over half a century from January 1972 to July 2022, we find that Δ MIN US have strong predictive power for returns in most international stock markets: Δ MIN US negatively predicts the next-month stock market returns. The results remain robust after controlling for a number of macroeconomic predictors and conducting subsample and panel data analyses, indicating that Δ MIN US has significant predictive power and it outperforms other variables in international markets. Notably, Δ MIN US demonstrates excellent predictive power even during the periods driven by financial upheavals (e.g., Global Financial Crisis and European Sovereign Debt Crisis). Both panel regressions and out-of-sample tests also support the robust predictive performance of Δ MIN US . The predictive power, however, disappears during the non-financial crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic, which is originated from the health sector rather than the financial sector. The results provide a new perspective on U.S. extreme indicator in stock market return predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The severity of the financial crisis marked a turning point in monetary policy, as traditional measures approached the effective lower bound, the ECB was forced to resort only to non-regular measures to support bank lending and revive economic activity. This study provides evidence of the effectiveness of the ECB's non-traditional measures in boosting bank credit in the euro area. We use a panel regression analysis with different model specifications to analyze aggregate credit data from fifteen euro area economies from July 2007 to June 2021. Our empirical results indicate that the ECB’s non-regular measures support bank credit but also demonstrate a structural change in the impact of non-traditional interventions on credit. Moreover, the cross-country analysis indicates the presence of heterogeneity in the transmission of non-regular policy on credit, revealing weaker effects for distressed eurozone economies as they were more affected by the financial and debt crisis. Our findings have significant implications for policymakers and financial institutions, as they demonstrate the need to adapt to a changing landscape of monetary policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effect of funding constraints and the financial crisis on the pricing dynamics between the spot and futures markets. Tighter funding constraints and the presence of a financial crisis deter informed investors from utilizing their informational advantage in the futures market, reducing the leading role and information shares of futures prices. Funding constraints negatively affect the probability of informed trading and large trading in the futures markets. Our findings are in line with the recent theoretical perspective that indicates both factors significantly affect informed trading, the cross‐market process of price discovery, and financial stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Challenging the perceived immunity of Islamic stocks to the global financial crisis, this research investigates whether there was any coherence and long-run cointegration between Islamic stocks of BRIC countries and S&P 500 options implied volatility smirk (IVS) in BRIC countries during the global financial crisis (GFC). Employing Engle–Granger and Johansen's cointegration tests along with wavelet coherence analysis, this study reveals significant long-run cointegration and both short-term and long-term wavelet coherence between IVS and Islamic stock returns (ISRs). Since the S&P 500 options IVS is a reliable indicator of GFC in the context of the conventional stock market, the cointegration and coherence between ISRs and IVS indicate the susceptibility of ISRs to market contagion during the GFC. These findings challenge the notion of Islamic stocks as a safe haven during financial crises, showing their susceptibility to market downturns similar to conventional stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines short‐run dynamics and changing sources of wealth among the Forbes 400 annual list of wealthiest individuals in the United States, before and after the 2008–2009 financial crisis. We analyze the interaction of growth of wealth with education, age, and being self‐made versus inheriting wealth. We find evidence of conditional convergence of wealth within the group. The wealth of the self‐made grew faster than their counterparts, though less so after the crisis. Those with advanced degrees had higher pre‐crisis growth of wealth than those without such degrees. Controlling for these characteristics, age was not a factor in wealth accumulation. Mobility in and out of the group was higher pre‐crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we have carried out the predictions for growth or spurt in Systemic Risk across the different categories of financial institutions in India relative to the change in the market prices. We have used Bayes Theorem along with Logistic regressions to work out the actual probabilities regarding the growth in Systemic Risk with the fall in stock prices and Wilcoxon Rank sum Test to validate the robustness of the models. In this paper, we have studied the period from July 2007 to December 2020. An important feature observed was any fall in closing prices beyond 30%, is contributing for 90% growth in systemic risk. A policy implication can follow—that it is imperative to monitor a sharp decline in market prices to the tune of 30% or more by regulators to avoid a crisis. We generally presume that state ownership of Banks particularly in India generates public confidence. Our paper has been able to support the theory of public confidence wherein the Public Sector Banks are contributing less towards the growth of Systemic Risk as compared to Private Banks and NBFCs. The NBFCs are the highest contributor of the growth in systemic risk which we have differentiated from our results. So, in coming days NBFCs are to be closely monitored by the regulators and suitable regulatory measures need to be placed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the mathematical dynamics of consumer spending during a financial crisis using opponent process theory (OPT). Traditionally applied in psychology, OPT explains how initial emotional responses are followed by counteracting reactions to restore equilibrium. This study models the short-term boost in consumer spending and subsequent economic adjustments. Utilizing differential equations to represent these processes, this paper provides insights into the interplay between immediate policy effects and longer-term economic consequences. We focus on the United States (US) response to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis in this study. Results show evidence of diminishing response from prolonged stimuli due to demand saturation, resource allocation inefficiencies, and agent adaptation. Monetary stimuli may inflate debt/prices, outweighing benefits, and structural issues persist despite stimuli. Confidence and expectations impact response because perceived ineffectiveness weakens impact over time. Thus, while stimuli can initially boost activity, their sustained impact demands careful consideration of economic dynamics and agents' responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use content analysis to show that the diagnosis of the financial crisis of 2007–2009 shifted significantly from a focus on the need for structural change in the banking industry to an emphasis on culture and reform at the organizational level. We consider four overlapping subsystems in which this shift in problem–solution clusters played out—political, regulatory, legal, and consulting—and show that the "structural reform agenda," which was initially strong and publicly prominent in the political arena, lost attention. Over time it was displaced by a neoliberal managerialist turn, which watered down or abandoned structural solutions and instead played up a new "culture and conduct reform agenda." We explain this shift in terms of the marketization of regulation, which—following Mautner (Language and the market society, 1st ed. Routledge, 2010)'s model of interdiscursive alignment—we detect in the shifting language of financial-services reform across the four subsystems in scope. We argue that a neoliberal turn took place with a discursive closure that made the structural reform alternative gradually unsayable and, in the end, unthinkable. At the same time, the discourse turned to embrace the neoliberal agenda, built on the myth of self-regulating actors and markets, manifest in the culture problematic. This managerialist turn was able to mobilise, and be operationalised by, an industry of consultants, whereas structural change came to be seen by regulators as too risky to implement. We claim that these dynamics reveal how a form of "collective strategic ignorance," based on powerful institutional myths, was systematically oriented to ignore and reject structural sources of crisis. Finally, we suggest that the observed pattern of displacement—whereby initial calls for structural change become later displaced by managerial and procedural solutions—is common to other social issues, such as audit reform and corporate social responsibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Evidence suggests that financial crises and poor mental health are reciprocally related, but no systematic review has been conducted to synthesise the existing literature on the impact of national and international financial crises on population-level mental health and well-being. Aims: The aim of this study was to systematically review the available literature on the global impact of financial crises on mental health and well-being outcomes. Methods: After registration on PROSPERO, a systematic search was conducted in PsycINFO, MEDLINE, Wiley, and Web of Science for papers published until 21 November 2022. Following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement, 98 papers were identified as meeting eligibility criteria. Included studies were assessed using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) and results were presented in a formal narrative synthesis. Results: Our findings show that financial crises are significantly associated with well-being and occurrence of psychological conditions. Several socio-demographic, cultural, and country-specific characteristics played a crucial role in the prevention of population mental health decline in periods of financial crises. Conclusions: Based on the findings of this review, evidence-based recommendations were developed to guide the design of policy actions that protect population mental health during and after financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines Lebanon's enduring financial and economic crisis, exacerbated by economic challenges, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Port of Beirut explosion. With over 80 % currency devaluation due to sovereign debt default, the crisis has intensified poverty and unemployment, compounded by political turmoil. Using survey data from 178 stakeholders, experts, and academics, this research explores the intricate drivers of Lebanon's crisis and offers insights for policymakers. Employing quantitative methods, it uncovers the intertwined role of financial mismanagement, government failures, mounting public debt, financial engineering techniques, and political instability in driving the crisis. Recommendations emphasize prudent financial practices, sound governance, and policy interventions. This study sheds light on Lebanon's complex financial and economic challenges with data-backed perspectives from diverse stakeholders, providing valuable insights for management practitioners and scholars navigating crises in tumultuous environments. It aims to contribute to the management discourse, equipping stakeholders with actionable strategies for addressing and preventing similar crises. It also explores the interplay between stakeholder perspectives and the determinants of the financial crisis in Lebanon. It delves into the interconnected nature of the crisis and demonstrates how stakeholders from various sectors and backgrounds mirror the factors identified in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]