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Employment relations in Europe today differ from how they were prior to the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as key terms and conditions (e.g., wages) and sectors of economic activity (e.g., platform work and the green economy) are now subject to direct political intervention by the European institutions. Transnational (horizontal) competition within the Single European Market has long provided a context for national employment relations in Europe, and various national institutions impacted workers' rights and conditions of employment. Under the new economic governance (NEG) regime triggered by the financial crisis, political (vertical) intervention in employment relations created strong pressure toward the commodification of labor. The COVID pandemic involved policymaking in the opposite (decommodifying) direction. That said, and as the articles in this special issue clearly demonstrate, commodifying pressures are still strong, and the full realization of Social Europe is arguably as elusive as ever. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last two decades have seen an increase in the number and intensity of shocks and crises. The financial crisis of 2008/2009 and the COVID-19 crisis of 2020/2021 have led to economic recessions. During the COVID-19 crisis, national borders and the impact of crises in border regions were often the subject of political debate and media coverage. Border-regional resilience has only been discussed in the academic discourse for the last few years. This article uses a diverse set of socio-economic indicators to examine the (border)–regional resilience of German regions in the wake of the financial crisis and the COVID-19 crisis. A distinction is made between border and non-border regions, urban and rural regions, and regions in the old and new German federal states. The results show, first, that the COVID-19 crisis had a stronger socio-economic impact than the financial crisis. Second, border regions tended to be more affected by the financial crisis than non-border regions. Surprisingly, this was not the case for the border-specific COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, the study shows that it is not so much the border location that determines regional resilience, but rather the socio-economic level, the degree of urbanization and the associated embeddedness in global networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper analyses J1 League and J2 League clubs during the period 2011–2020 to anticipate financial distress. Design/methodology/approach: Data were collected for 29 professional football clubs competing in the J1 and J2 League for the financial years ending 2011–2020. Analysis was conducted using Altman's Z-score methodology and additional statistical tests were conducted to measure differences between groups. Findings: The results show significant cases of financial distress amongst clubs in both divisions and that clubs that have played predominantly in the J1 League are in significantly poorer financial health than clubs that have played predominantly in the J2 League. Overall, the financial situation in Japanese professional football needs to be monitored, a position that could be exacerbated by the economic crisis, caused by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Research limitations/implications: While the financial situation for a majority of the clubs in the J-League presents an austere picture, comparison with clubs in other leagues across Asia and Europe and understanding the different policies set by these leagues would enable us to understand whether the phenomenon of financial distress is common to other clubs and leagues across different countries and continents. Practical implications: The paper recommends that J-League visit the existing club licensing criteria and implement equitable cost-control measures, such as implementing a cap on acceptable losses over a specified period or restricting overall expenditures as a percentage of the club's revenue. Originality/value: The paper extends the evidence base of measuring financial distress in professional team sports and is also the first paper of its kind to examine this in relation to Asian professional football. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses whether government spending for social protection contributed more to counteracting the COVID-19 crisis than in previous episodes. Based on data for 27 EU countries over 1995–2021, we find that social spending is countercyclical and contributed to stabilization during the pandemic. However, we do not find evidence that overall social spending during 2020–2021 was more countercyclical then before. While unemployment spending played a particularly strong countercyclical role during the pandemic years 2020–2021, the cyclical behaviour of spending on old age, family and children, and sickness and disability was more in line with the past. The cyclicality of unemployment spending differs when comparing Continental with Southern, Nordic and Eastern EU countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early warning of financial crisis will greatly promote the stable development of small and medium-sized listed enterprises (listed SMEs). In this article, 13 warning indicators were selected for financial crisis prediction from five aspects: profit level, debt service level, business level, cash level, and development level. Then, the parameters of the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network model were optimised by the whale optimisation algorithm (WOA), resulting in the WOA-LSTM model. The WOA-LSTM model achieved an accuracy of 0.975 in predicting financial crises for listed SMEs. The performance of the WOA-LSTM model was significantly enhanced when using the filtered 13 indicators as inputs, compared to using the original 24 indicators. The findings prove the dependability of the WOA-LSTM model in warning financial crises of listed SMEs and the feasibility of its application in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates an essential channel through which uncertainty may harm the economy—firms' financing constraints. Unlike prior literature focusing on the aspect of aggregate economic policy uncertainty, we look into the dimension of disaggregate uncertainty in the banking system. Examining financial data of commercial banks and listed companies in Vietnam during 2008–2022, we document that banking uncertainty positively impacts corporate financial constraints. Moreover, we explore how firm‐specific and macroeconomic factors interact with the relationship between uncertainty and financing constraints. Our analysis indicates that this link is more pronounced for non‐state‐owned firms, firms with more intangible assets, and firms listed on the Hanoi stock exchange. Meanwhile, macro shocks, such as the financial crisis and the COVID‐19 pandemic can strengthen the effect of banking uncertainty on financing constraints. Finally, we examine the mechanisms through which banking uncertainty causes an increase in firms' financial constraints. We document that banking uncertainty exacerbates financial constraints by raising the cost of external financing, not by lowering firm performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between mortgage leverage and consumption around the 2008 financial crisis. Using data from the UK's Family Expenditure Survey and Wealth and Asset Survey, we first show that high‐leveraged households made larger cuts to consumption following the financial crisis, and this was largely driven by young households. Second, using a life‐cycle framework, we qualitatively evaluate four possible channels that could explain the observed positive relationship between consumption and leverage: income, uncertainty, credit supply and house price channels. Our key finding is that credit supply tightening is the main driver of the empirical co‐movement between pre‐crisis leverage and consumption growth after 2008. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of economic crises on an economy's energy consumption, considering its sectorial interactions, remains an unexplored area. For this article, we investigated the structural sectorial relationships in energy terms before, during, and after Catalonia's 2008–2014 financial crisis, using environmentally extended input–output analysis. We used three input–output tables from 2005, 2011, and 2014, for which we constructed and employed five vectors representing sectorial energy consumption (“natural gas,” “coal,” “petroleum,” “electricity,” and “biomass and waste”) for 41 economic sectors. We studied the evolution of backward and forward linkage coefficients in terms of energy, as well as key sectors over this period. Our findings reveal that most sectors, particularly energy‐intensive ones, experienced a reduction in both backward and forward linkages. However, the relative importance of sectors in the Catalan economy remained relatively stable over the years, indicating a certain level of persistence in this indicator throughout the period, despite the economic crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Are recessions drivers of structural change? Here we investigate employment dynamics in the UK and show that a re-allocation of labour between industrial sectors in times of crisis induces an acceleration in structural change. Our key hypothesis is that cities with industrial baskets that exhibit strong potential for inter-industry labour mobility are more resilient as they can shift workers between sectors resulting in employment growth in some sectors — which in turn induces structural change during an economic crisis. Probing this hypothesis, we find that UK cities experienced a sharp increase in the rate of structural change at the city level around 2009 which coincided with an increase in inter-sectoral job transitions during the recession (2008–11) which persisted for years afterwards. To shed light on this, we deploy an econometric model to show that local employment in skill-related sectors, which captures the potential for inter-industry labour mobility, is most strongly associated with city-industry employment growth during the recession period. • We investigate structural change and economic resilience during economic crises. • We focus on the role of labour mobility between industries requiring similar skills. • We posit cities with skill-related industries better re-allocate labour in a crisis. • Validating this, we find inter-industry job switching peaked during the 2008 crisis. • And that industries in cities with many skill-related sectors experienced employment growth. • Labour mobility plays a role in structural change and resilience in economic crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses the working conditions of highly educated mobile workers in five major European Union (EU) markets. The study uses the overeducation indicator, analyzing its transformation over the period 2005–2016. Using annual data from the European Union Labour Force Survey, the results reveal very different conditions between home country nationals and mobile workers from newer (enlargement)—EU-13—and older—EU-15—member states from the perspective of successful economic and social integration. The EU enlargement process has not completely removed the penalty for educated workers from EU-13 countries, but it has significantly reduced it, as has the premium received by mobile workers from other EU-15 member states, thus leading to their better integration and greater equality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the market structure of the Hungarian bank market and the effects of the financial crisis of 2008 on it. With a static and a dynamic panel model we estimate the elasticity of total revenues with respect to changes in input prices so that we can determine the market structure based on the Panzar and Rosse methodology for the period between 2003 and 2020. We test the input price elasticity according to the balance sheet and profit and loss data of the top 13 companies. The results show that the Hungarian bank market was a monopolistic competition or a monopoly market in long run equilibrium. To see the effects of the financial crisis we use three subsamples, furthermore we estimate and test the H-statistic with a fixed effect model. During the examined period the level of factor price elasticity increased in time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the relationship between changing house prices and assessed value in the Detroit Michigan region. Using parcel-level data from 2008 through 2016, we construct a Hedonic Housing Price Index and an Assessed Value Index for 120 Michigan assessing jurisdictions in the five-county region surrounding Detroit (Macomb, Monroe, Oakland, Washtenaw, and Wayne). Our findings are consistent with the literature, indicating at least a three-year lag between changes in house prices and changes in property assessments. Communities considered to be distressed tended to over-assess properties before the crisis, but these communities recalibrated assessments to better align with market conditions after the financial crisis. Our evaluation also shows that while assessed values decreased more slowly than housing prices fell during the crisis, assessed values tended to fall to even deeper levels than housing prices over a longer time horizon. JEL Codes: H71, H83, G01 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the relationship between income inequality, economic growth, and unemployment in Greece from 2003 to 2020, encompassing key economic phases: pre-crisis, crisis, memoranda, and post-memoranda. The aim is to analyze how economic growth (logarithm of GDP-LOGGDP) and unemployment influenced income inequality (GINI coefficient) during periods of economic turmoil and recovery. Using linear regression analysis on 18 years of annual data, this study identifies significant relationships between the variables, with diagnostic tests confirming model robustness. The findings reveal a strong positive and statistically significant relationship between LOGGDP and income inequality, indicating that economic growth, without effective redistributive mechanisms, exacerbated disparities. Unemployment had an even stronger positive effect on inequality, highlighting its role in deepening income disparities, particularly during the crisis years marked by economic contraction and austerity measures. These results underline the critical need for balanced economic policies that promote inclusive growth while addressing structural inequalities and labor market vulnerabilities. This study also employs advanced econometric methods, including Vector Autoregression (VAR), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Granger Causality Test, to analyze the dynamics between GDP (LOGGDP), income inequality (GINI), and unemployment. The Granger Test reveals that unemployment Granger-causes GDP with a two-period lag, highlighting the importance of labor market conditions for economic growth, while no direct causal relationship is found between GDP and inequality. These methods provide deeper insights into the short- and long-term interactions, offering valuable guidance for balanced economic policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the effect of bank liquidity supply on the corporate liquidity management choice between cash and lines of credit and the real effects of liquidity. By exploiting an exogenous shock to U.S. banks induced by the 1998 Russian crisis, I find that the liquidity shock has a significantly negative impact on U.S. firms' reliance on credit lines relative to cash. Firms who initiate their last precrisis credit lines from banks exposed to the crisis (treated firms) have a lower likelihood of obtaining new credit lines during the crisis relative to the precrisis clients of nonexposed banks (control firms). Moreover, firms hoard cash and cut investment after the shock, but the effects are concentrated among firms whose precrisis credit lines are maturing in the crisis. These results suggest that a shortage of credit lines forces firms to substitute cash savings for investment, indicating an important role of precautionary savings motives in transmitting liquidity shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In October 2008, Iceland faced a severe crisis when its financial system collapsed, leading to economic, social, political, and international turmoil. The currency plummeted, asset prices fell, inflation surged, real wages declined, and unemployment soared, sparking public unrest. Citizens lost trust in institutions and each other as blame for the crisis spread widely. In response, successive governments implemented innovative policies to aid recovery and restore public trust. This paper examines the debt policies adopted during the crisis and the rapid adjustments made as new information emerged. Policymakers experimented with various tools, some of which deviated from traditional IMF guidelines but were later adopted by the IMF in severe crises. International relations were strained, notably in the Icesave dispute, where Iceland was listed alongside terrorist organizations by a long-time ally. Unlike other countries, Iceland focused on supporting households and productive firms rather than bailing out financial institutions, offering a model for alternative crisis response. Many of Iceland's policies resembled the Global South's but with unique measures, such as significant debt reduction and enhanced social safety nets. This paper emphasizes that addressing household and corporate debt was crucial for successful redistribution efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Several countries are experiencing challenges in maintaining standard haemodialysis services for people with kidney failure. Objective: This study aimed to investigate the health profile of people receiving haemodialysis and to identify factors associated with interdialytic weight gain. Design: A cross‐sectional study. Participants: A total of 166 adults with kidney failure and receiving haemodialysis for at least 3 months were included. Measurements: A structured chart audit form collected, demographic and haemodialysis treatment characteristics, recent biochemical and haematological results, and prescribed treatment regimens from clinical records. Data were analysed descriptively. Odds ratios (OR) were calculated to identify independent risk factors for interdialytic weight gain. Results: Mean age was 52 years (SD = 12.5), over half were male (60.2%, n = 100), and most were receiving 4 h of haemodialysis once per week (87.3%, n = 145). Approximately half (51.8%, n = 86) had an interdialytic weight gain >2%. Being female (OR = 3.39; 95% CI, 1.51–7.61), increased comorbidities (OR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.22–1.84) and having BMI outside of the normal range (overweight/obese [OR = 8.49; 95% CI, 3.58–20.13] or underweight [OR = 4.61; 95% CI, 1.39–15.31]) were independent risk factors for increased interdialytic weight gain. Conclusion: Most patients were receiving 4 h of haemodialysis once per week although only modest alterations in potassium, phosphate, and fluid status were observed. Understanding the patient profile and predictors of interdialytic weight gain will inform the development of self‐management interventions to optimise clinician support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature has examined the relationship between financial inclusion and financial stability, but no studies have examined the relationship between financial inclusion and financial crisis. This study examines the effect of financial inclusion on financial crisis using data from 28 countries from 2006 to 2017. Three stylised facts were established based on real‐world observation. One, the level of financial inclusion, in terms of number of bank depositors, decreases during domestic financial crisis. Two, the level of financial inclusion, in terms of ATM penetration, does not decrease during global and domestic financial crises. Three, the level of financial inclusion, in terms of number of bank branch, decreases during global and domestic financial crises and the contraction is stronger during a domestic financial crisis. Using the panel regression, logit and probit regression estimation methods, the empirical results show that low levels of financial inclusion, measured by fewer bank depositors and fewer bank branches, increase the likelihood that a financial crisis will occur. Low levels of financial inclusion, measured by fewer bank depositors, increase the likelihood that a financial crisis will occur in low financial‐inclusion countries. In contrast, greater ATM penetration increases the likelihood that a financial crisis will occur in low financial‐inclusion countries. The interaction analyses show that all indices of financial inclusion have a joint positive impact on financial crisis, implying that high levels of financial inclusion increases the likelihood that a financial crisis will occur. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims to substantiate the mutual influence of banking risks during the financial crisis by the empirical assessment of data from post-Soviet countries. Empirical substantiation of the mechanism of mutual banking risks within the crisis periods was based on a consecutive verification of the statistical significance of regression models. Firstly, the influence of foreign exchange risk on credit risk and liquidity risk is determined. Secondly, the causality between liquidity risk and credit risk is checked. Next, the impact of foreign exchange, credit and liquidity risks on interest rate risk is evaluated. As a result, the influence of the specified banking risks on solvency is determined, which is evaluated in this study by the indicator of equity capital adequacy. The results of the analysis have proved that in the post-Soviet economies (except the Baltic countries), foreign ex-change risk caused an increase in credit risk and did not have a statistically significant effect on liquidity risk. An in-crease in credit risk caused an increase in banking liquidity, which revealed the effect of replacing income assets with liquid ones during the crisis. The level of liquidity affects the interest rate risk (spread level); in Ukraine, the level of the spread is also negatively affected by credit risk. The level of solvency of banks is determined by their liquidity. In post-Soviet developing countries, the level of solvency is negatively affected by credit risk. The economic literature pays the main attention to the formalization of relationships between credit and interest risks, between credit risk and liquidity risk. In this aspect, we expanded the object of scientific research on banking risks, as we considered the empirical relationships between the main types of banking risks. The obtained empirical results can be useful for regulatory authorities when strategizing micro- and macro-prudential policy instruments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent research has concluded that foreign trade is a key factor shaping the urbanization process in developing countries. Yet the empirical evidence is still in its infancy. This paper seeks to fill this gap by using the Financial Crisis of 2008 as a quasi-experiment to examine how trade shocks have affected urbanization in China. We find that such shocks have reduced the change in the urbanization rate by 0.4%. These results are robust after controlling for other factors that affect urbanization. We explore the underlying mechanisms and find that trade shocks reduce the urban – rural income gap by lowering the income of urban residents and slowing down the urbanization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyse the effect of credit supply constraints on R&D conditional on the financial strength of firms and heterogeneity in the restrictions in the supply of external financing. The financial strength of firms and access to external financing are identified by an exogenously calculated rating index. Restrictions in the supply of external financing are determined by the specific time period (crisis vs. non-crisis) and the balance sheet strength of the firm's main bank in terms of bank capital. Our results support the theoretical prediction that financing constraints negatively affect R&D. We find that firms with a lower financial strength reduce R&D to a stronger extent in times of stress on financial markets and when the firm faces restrictions in external financing. Additionally, the effect does not persist over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to understand how managers in entrepreneurial small businesses (ESBs) deal with exogenous (macro) crises, particularly in relation to the breakdown of intra- and inter-stakeholder trust. Design/methodology/approach: Utilising a qualitative approach, we draw lessons from Greek ESBs greatly affected by the 2008–2019 economic and 2020–2022 health crises. Based on 54 in-depth, longitudinal investigations of four ESBs at three time points, this research offers insights on overcoming organisation-stakeholder trust breakdowns that emerg due to crises. Findings: The findings suggest that macro-level crises undermined the foundations of trust-based relationships, creating a trust gap between organisations and their stakeholders and threatening ESBs' business practices. Our framework suggests that ESBs repair trust relationships, both intra- and inter-organisational, through sense-making of trust breakdown, implementing trust-repair strategies, and then maintaining trust in those stakeholder relationships through challenging crisis periods. Practical implications: Practitioners can use the suggested framework in relation to overcoming intra- and inter-stakeholder trust breakdowns during macro-level crises. Originality/value: The paper offers a new framework that can aid entrepreneurs and managers in making sense of repairing and maintaining trust in stakeholder relationships during turbulent times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What caused the 1929 crash of the New York Stock Exchange? This paper quantitatively studies liquidity during the 1929 crash of the NYSE. I evidence that the crash represented a liquidity crisis due to the liquidation of brokers' margin loans. Applying recent estimators of effective spreads and liquidity conditions from contemporary finance literature suggests a four‐fold increase in spreads during the crash at the aggregate level. At the individual stock level, quoted bid‐ask spreads suggest that liquidity explains one‐fifth of the variance in daily stock returns during the crash. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present research has investigated the relationship between the speed of achieving optimal financial leverage and the control of financial crisis in companies, emphasizing the moderating effect of managers' ability. In order to measure the hypotheses of the research, the panel data of 124 companies admitted to the stock exchange in a 10-year period (from 2014 to 2023) has been used. The data collection in this research was done by the library method and the data related to the variables were collected from the comprehensive information site of the publishers and the financial reports of the sample companies and the preliminary calculations of the panel were done in Excel, finally using the Stata software. It has been used to measure the hypotheses. The results of the research hypothesis test showed that the speed of achieving the optimal financial leverage had the opposite effect on the financial crisis of companies. Also, the results indicate that the interaction between the speed of adjustment of financial leverage and the ability of managers has no effect on the financial crisis of companies.

Amidst the massive expansion of Covid-19 literature, this paper aims to articulate existing findings, pinpoint practical implications, and provide promising directions for future exploration using a systematic literature review. Following the PRISMA framework, this research analyzed relevant 60 articles published in ABDC ranked and SCOPUS indexed journals during 2020-2024. Moreover, ABS rankings were used to provide an additional layer of quality assessment of sample articles. Using Excel, VOSviewer and Biblioshiny, the authors analyzed the corresponding studies, and results indicate that most research investigating this issue published in B ranked (as per ABDC), Q1 ranked (as per SCOPUS) and ABS-2 and 1 ranked (as per ABS) journals primarily by Elsevier and Emerald publishers. Besides, 43% of papers are Asia based (China contributing most), and the most used databases were CSMAR, BvD, Compustat, Datastream, and Prowess. Quantitative research methods such as Pooled OLS, Logistic regression, Fixed effect model, 2SLS, 3SLS, DID etc. dominated the literature, whereas qualitative methods such as surveys and conceptual studies were rarely used. Around half of the sampled papers used only accounting-based measures (ROA, ROE, NPM, EBITDA, EPS) as dependent variables. Despite the overwhelmingly negative impact of Covid-19 on firm performance, 16.67% of the sampled papers reported mixed results in various regions and countries due to several firm-specific, macro-economic, and industry-specific factors. These articles provide important implications for managers, board of directors, investors, and regulators. Practitioners should adopt a sector- and region-specific approach to combat pandemics. Future researchers may focus on conducting both short-term and long-term studies incorporating factors like government stimulus package, business sensitivity to multiple phases of Covid-19 and the country’s preparedness using longitudinal studies, surveys, meta-analysis, in-depth interviews, observations, and case studies to fully comprehend the effects of Covid-19.

Many researchers attribute the vulnerability of African banks to poor innovation and technology adoption in the continent. While many studies suggest that Fintech adoption can mitigate instabilities/risks, this study argues that adopting Fintech brings both challenges and opportunities. Consequently, the study examines a monotonic connection between Fintech and bank stability in a panel of 26 African economies from 2004 to 2021. After measuring bank stability with the bank Z-score, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was employed to generate an index of Fintech using various digital payment indicators. The results of the System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique reveal that the relationship is U-shaped in the short run but monotonic in the long run with greater magnitude. Hence, an oscillatory divergent relationship was implied for the entire period. That is, Fintech improves and worsens bank stability intermittently over time. The result is still valid with the inclusion of bank-specific and macroeconomic variables but it was improved with the inclusion of institutional variables in the model. Furthermore, the U-test analysis employed as a second-order robustness check for the U-shaped relationship confirms that Fintech adoption will first worsen bank stability before improving it. The study concludes that Fintech’s ability to improve bank stability depends on the extent and quality of institutional development/regulations in the region. The study therefore recommends institutional development and Fintech regulation to guarantee steady financial/bank stability through Fintech adoption.

The objective of this article is to analyse the processes of macroeconomic stabilisation in Central and Eastern European countries over the past thirty years (1991-2021), from the inception of market reforms to the present day. At the same time, the author aims to identify patterns and trends in the macroeconomic policies of these countries, which were formed under the influence of radical structural changes, economic cycles and the global financial crisis of 2008. Methodology. In order to analyse the data, the correlation between variables was measured. The volatility of macroeconomic indicators was gauged using the standard deviation. Based on panel regressions with fixed effects, models were created to demonstrate the influence of macroeconomic stability on economic growth in 15 countries across Central and Eastern Europe over a 30-year period (1991-2021). Results. The analysis using panel regressions with fixed effects shows a significant impact of macroeconomic stability indicators on economic growth after the 2008 global financial crisis, compared to a very small impact during the 2000-2008 boom. The growth of indicators of the real effective exchange rate and total official reserves have a positive impact on economic growth during the boom, while the impact of these indicators decreases significantly in the post-crisis period, and the impact of the lending rate, the current account balance and the unemployment rate increases. It should be noted that the dominant positive factor influencing economic growth in all periods is the budget balance and the weak influence of the exchange rate. Practical implications. The author identifies certain combinations of macroeconomic indicators to create a successful macroeconomic policy for sustainable economic growth in Central and Eastern Europe. Value / Оriginality. The paper assesses and analyses the relationship between macroeconomic stability and economic growth in Central and Eastern European countries during both recession and boom periods, as well as in the post-crisis downturn after 2008, in order to achieve stable welfare, confidence in the future for the whole society and the success of long-term investment projects.

The paper explains the origin of the financial crisis in one country and its spread to other countries—contagion, in a dynamic model of international capital inflow. The origin of the crisis is rooted in this model in the common international loan market, and crisis can occur even when the countries are not interconnected via bi-lateral or multi-lateral trade and commerce, when connected via trade or commerce the contagion hits with a stronger effect. The paper introduces country-level heterogeneity of risk of default for individual countries in the borrowing group which generates interesting cases of the contagion effect. A change in the risk of default of an individual country adversely affects the total supply in the international loan market leading to crises in other countries via increased international interest rates. It has an enhanced effect when the risk of default depends on the lagged domestic productivity of the borrowing country. The model can explain various episodes of financial crisis in a common framework and can be usefully employed for policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article considers the main aspects of the impact of the financial crisis on the national economy. The causes of the financial crisis are studied, which include: political instability and military aggression by russia, devaluation of the hryvnia and inflation, a decrease in investment and capital outflow, a fall in GDP and an increase in unemployment, foreign debt and budget deficit. The authors thoroughly analyzed the consequences of the financial crisis in Ukraine, provided statistical data of the main macroeconomic indicators, namely: inflation, nominal GDP of Ukraine, national debt, volume of international reserves, wages, pensions, budget deficit, unemployment. Directions for eliminating the consequences of crisis phenomena are proposed. Ukraine has the potential to overcome the crisis and build a prosperous economy.

This study delves into the impact of the 2008 Global Crisis on the competition between the wholesalers and unregistered firms in Eastern European and Central Asian countries. The survey data from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance (BEEPSII and BEEPSIV) conducted by the World Bank in 2008 (crisis) and 2013 (post-crisis) were utilized. The survey covers 29 countries in the region. The results of the nonparametric tests show that significantly more wholesalers experienced competition against unregistered firms in 2008 when compared to 2013. While approximately half of the wholesalers experienced informal sector competition in 2008, in 2013, only around one-third of wholesalers experienced informal sector competition. This post-crisis decline is seen for both the five Central Asian economies (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) that are examined and the other transition economies. When wholesalers are classified into different categories based on size, independence from a larger firm, type of firm (partnership, sole proprietorship, etc.), gender of the owner, gender of the top manager, experience of the top manager, and having an internationally recognized quality certification, it is observed that competition against unregistered firms declined in 2013 for all types of wholesalers except for partnerships and larger firms. The results show that, on a scale of 0 to 4 (0 being no informal sector competition and 4 being very severe informal sector competition), the mean severity of competition against unregistered firms was 1.52 in 2008 and 1.18 in 2013. However, this decline in the severity of informal sector competition post-crisis is not seen for the five Central Asian economies that are examined. Also, when different firm types are examined, limited partnerships and firms that are part of a larger firm did not experience a decline in informal sector competition. To find the determinants of competition between the wholesalers and unregistered or informal firms, binary logistic regressions were used. The results show that smaller firms without an internationally recognized certification are more susceptible to informal sector competition in the Central Asian economies, whereas larger, shareholding firms are more prone to informal sector competition in the other transition economies.

Abstract We propose a new predictor—the innovation in the daily return minimum in the U.S. stock market ( $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US )—for predicting international stock market returns. Using monthly data for a wide range of 17 MSCI international stock markets during the period spanning over half a century from January 1972 to July 2022, we find that $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US have strong predictive power for returns in most international stock markets: $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US negatively predicts the next-month stock market returns. The results remain robust after controlling for a number of macroeconomic predictors and conducting subsample and panel data analyses, indicating that $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US has significant predictive power and it outperforms other variables in international markets. Notably, $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US demonstrates excellent predictive power even during the periods driven by financial upheavals (e.g., Global Financial Crisis and European Sovereign Debt Crisis). Both panel regressions and out-of-sample tests also support the robust predictive performance of $$\Delta {MIN}^{US}$$ Δ MIN US . The predictive power, however, disappears during the non-financial crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic, which is originated from the health sector rather than the financial sector. The results provide a new perspective on U.S. extreme indicator in stock market return predictability.

ÖZ: Bu araştırmanın amacı, küresel finansal krizin muhasebe ihtiyatlılığı üzerine etkisinin incelenmesidir. Bu doğrultuda 2005-2012 yılları arasında Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören şirketlerin finansal verileri analiz edilmiştir. Analize dahil edilen şirketlerin finansal verileri, Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu ile Thomson Refinitiv Datastream programı kullanılarak temin edilmiştir. Çalışmada 2005-2007 dönemleri kriz öncesi dönemi, 2008-2009 dönemleri kriz dönemi, 2010-2012 dönemleri ise kriz sonrası dönemleri olarak kategorize edilerek analize dahil edilmiştir. Çalışmada muhasebe ihtiyatlılığının ölçümünde piyasa değerinin defter değerine oranı ile C skor kullanılmıştır. Analizde kullanılan değişkenler için birim kök ve çoklu bağlantı testleri yapılmıştır. Krizin ihtiyatlılık üzerine etkisinin tespitinde panel veri analizi ve Driscoll-Kraay dirençli tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, küresel finansal krizin muhasebe ihtiyatlılık düzeyi üzerinde etkili olduğunu, kriz döneminde ihtiyatlılık düzeyinin azaldığını, kriz döneminden sonra ise kriz öncesine ve kriz dönemine göre ihtiyatlılığın daha fazla arttığını göstermektedir. Çalışmada finansal kriz dönemi ile muhasebe ihtiyatlılığı üzerinde negatif yönlü bir ilişki, kriz döneminden sonra ise pozitif yönlü bir ilişki tespit edilmiştir. ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the global financial crisis on accounting conservatism. Accordingly, the financial data of companies traded on Borsa Istanbul between 2005 and 2012 are analyzed. The financial data of the companies included in the analysis were obtained using the Public Disclosure Platform and Thomson Refinitiv Datastream program. In the study, 2005-2007 periods were categorized as pre-crisis period, 2008-2009 periods as crisis period and 2010-2012 periods as post-crisis period. In the study, the ratio of market capitalization to book value and C score are used to measure accounting conservatism. Unit root and multicollinearity tests were conducted for the variables used in the analysis. Panel data analysis and Driscoll-Kraay robust estimator are used to determine the impact of the crisis on conservatism. The findings show that the global financial crisis has an impact on the level of accounting conservatism, that the level of conservatism decreased during the crisis period, and increased more post-crisis period compared to the pre-crisis and crisis period. In the study, a negative relationship was found between the financial crisis period and accounting conservatism, while a positive relationship was found in post-crisis period.

This paper explores the mathematical dynamics of consumer spending during a financial crisis using opponent process theory (OPT). Traditionally applied in psychology, OPT explains how initial emotional responses are followed by counteracting reactions to restore equilibrium. This study models the short-term boost in consumer spending and subsequent economic adjustments. Utilizing differential equations to represent these processes, this paper provides insights into the interplay between immediate policy effects and longer-term economic consequences. We focus on the United States (US) response to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis in this study. Results show evidence of diminishing response from prolonged stimuli due to demand saturation, resource allocation inefficiencies, and agent adaptation. Monetary stimuli may inflate debt/prices, outweighing benefits, and structural issues persist despite stimuli. Confidence and expectations impact response because perceived ineffectiveness weakens impact over time. Thus, while stimuli can initially boost activity, their sustained impact demands careful consideration of economic dynamics and agents’ responses.

CEOs in United States firms have experienced significant compensation gains since the late 1970s. A key component of these compensation packages are stock options, which now represent a larger share of total compensation. This reliance on stock options may encourage CEOs to focus on short-term performance, potentially incentivizing excessive risk taking to boost the firm's stock price. We utilize a sample of publicly traded firms in order to comment on the extent to which compensation and risk taking are related, and in particular, if compensation is associated with risky corporate behaviors. We use data from S&P 1500 firms and their Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) for the period of 2006–2022, sourced from Compustat and Execucomp databases. In this paper, we proxy firm-level risk-taking behavior through Altman's Z-score and stock volatility. To address the likely endogeneity of compensation, we employ a Two-Stage Least Squares approach; we instrument CEO tenure and firm size and include two sets of policy and asset pricing controls. Ultimately, we find a strong positive relationship between CEOs' stock and options awards and risk taking as represented by Altman's Z-score and stock volatility. By contrast, CEO's total compensation is reversely correlated with Altman's Z-score and stock volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multifaceted crises that Lebanon is facing have led to a shortage of medications in the country's community pharmacies. This shortage has triggered a cascade of adverse effects, rippling throughout the nation's healthcare system. In this report, we examine the causes, which range from economic turmoil to inadequate resource distribution, along with the profound impacts on public health, such as increased length of hospital stays and compromised patient care. The paper also proposes a suite of solutions aimed at mitigating the immediate challenges and paving the way for a more resilient healthcare framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the public comments submitted to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), 2010–2014, in response to proposed rules for implementing the Dodd‐Frank reforms. By addressing a fine‐grained typology of commenting organizations to a topic model of the combined comments, we illuminate a new pattern of public engagement in financial regulation. Contrary to the economic concept of regulatory capture, our data show no sharp divide between the suppliers of complex derivatives (the dealer banks) and their customers in other parts of the finance industry. In keeping with the general concept of financialization—but contrary to its strongest versions—our data show distinctly delimited evidence of a convergence between the banks and other sectors. Instead of either capture or all‐embracing financialization, the comments submitted to the CFTC display an overriding opposition in the justifications used by commenters to explain their preferences. Commenters from the financial services and allied sectors consistently adopt a language of technical legitimation. Commenters in agriculture, livestock, retail energy, and many nonmarket organizations adopt a language of moral justification. The clarity of the divide between these two idioms indicates that the underlying purposes of new financial instruments are now being questioned. Even in the realm of esoteric financial instruments such as derivatives, the moral economy of market competition is once again subject to debate among market participants as well as observers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the application of spectral methods in risk management as means of validating VaR models. We propose to replace earlier spectral VaR tests with the test based on the Anderson–Darling statistic. Based on assumptions relevant to VaR failure analysis, we experimentally prove that the Anderson–Darling spectral test displays strong power to reject inaccurate VaR. Its main advantage over the existing methods is the combination of two features: the lack of tendency to overreject properly predicted VaR and high sensitivity to limited evidence of incorrectness in VaR predictions. Thus, this test may play an important role in times of change in volatility dynamics, such as outbreaks of financial crises. We confirm this empirically, based on data starting before the subprime mortgage crisis, running through the COVID-19 pandemic, until the outbreak of the Russo–Ukrainian war. We give a number of examples when this method revealed the inaccuracy of VaR predictions not discovered by com- monly used tests. We also show that the proposed spectral test never failed at finding the models indicated as incorrect by other tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides evidence on how bank performance and strategies vary with the degree of bank internationalization using data for 113 countries during 2000–15. Bank internationalization is associated with lower valuations and lower returns on equity. After the global financial crisis, international banks were revalued particularly if they had stable funding in the form of deposits and if they had more generous deposit insurance coverage. For international banks headquartered in developing countries, bank internationalization is related negatively with the cyclicality of their domestic credit growth with respect to home country GDP growth, smoothing local downturns. In contrast, if the international bank is from a high-income country investing in a developing country, its subsidiary bank lending is relatively procyclical, which can be destabilizing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study aims to measure the degree of volatility comovement between stock market liquidity and informational efficiency across Asia, Europe, North-South America, Africa, and the Pacific Ocean over three decades. In particular, the authors analyze the extent of the time-varying nexus between different aspects of stock market liquidity and multifractal scaling properties of the stock return series across various regions and diversified market conditions. This study further investigates several factors altering the degree of dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between the efficiency and liquidity of the domestic stock markets. Design/methodology/approach: The study measures five aspects of stock market liquidity – tightness, depth, breadth, immediacy, and adjusted immediacy. The authors evaluate the multifractal scaling properties of the stock return series to measure the level of stock market efficiency across the regions and diversified market conditions. The study uses the dynamic conditional correlation-multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity framework to quantify the degree of volatility comovement between liquidity and efficiency over the period. Findings: The study finds the presence of stronger volatility comovement between inefficiency and illiquidity due to the price impact characteristics of the stock markets irrespective of different regions and diversified market conditions. The extent of time-variation increased following the shock periods, indicating the significant role of the financial crisis in increasing the volatility comovement between inefficiency and illiquidity. The highest degree of time-varying correlation is observed in the developed stock markets of Northwestern and Northern Europe compared to the regional and emerging counterparts. On the other hand, weak DCCs are observed in the emerging stock markets of Europe. Originality/value: The output of the present study assists investors in identifying diversification opportunities across the regions. Additionally, the study has significant implications for market regulators, aiding in predicting future troughs and peaks. The prediction, in turn, helps formulate capital market development plans during dynamic economic situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Six financial markets were verified contagious to Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC): domestic equity market (SSEC and China COSCO Shipping Co.), domestic currency market, international currency market, global shipping market, commodity future market and bulk shipping market (BDI) which regarded as a leading indicator of future economic growth instead of Li Keqiang index. This research analyzed intermarket contagion from March 14, 2008 to March 31, 2018. MIDAS-GARCH model was adopted to identify the spillover effect among the Shanghai Stock market and inter-market indices. The findings of this study were concluded as follows: (1) The commodity, global shipping market had significant volatility transmission to SSEC both before and after the crash crisis. (2) The volatility of domestic currency market was significantly contagious to SSEC only after the crash. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]