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Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; MyanmarSSP; MAPSA, Development Strategies and Governance (DSG); Transformation Strategies, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), The regional context in which rural livelihoods in Myanmar are embedded varies widely, in terms of physical geography, climate and agroecology, local resource base, agrarian structure, infrastructure provision, proximity to urban areas and neighboring countries, social networks, institutions, and ethnicities. The composition of livelihoods in each administrative and geographical zone of the country reflects these diverse contexts. Marked variations in patterns of livelihoods are evident at multiple scales, from the zone or region, down to township, and village level, so that the composition of livelihoods in villages close to one another sometimes varies widely (Phyo, 2022). Despite a high level of place-based specificity, many broad similarities and common trends also shape the composition of livelihoods at sub-national and national levels. These include: Generally low levels of agricultural productivity relative to other countries in the region, in terms of both land and labor (World Bank 2016); High rates of landlessness and legacies of land confiscation and unresolved struggles over land rights and access (Mark and Belton 2020); Generally poor, though -prior to 2020 - rapidly improving, public infrastructure and services, including electricity, roads, schools, health services, and rural credit (Belton et al. 2017; Lambrecht and Belton 2018); Relatively low levels of diversification and capital in the rural non-farm economy; High rates of international and domestic outmigration (World Bank and LIFT 2016; CHIME 2019); Histories of ethno-political conflict and insecurity (South 2009). This working paper synthesizes analyses from four large household surveys, each covering a major agro-ecological zone, to evaluate inter-regional variations in the composition of livelihoods and the rural economy. The four zones examined are the Delta (Ayeyarwady and Yangon), the Dry Zone (Mandalay, Magway, Sagaing), the hills (represented by Shan South), and the coasts (represented b

This paper adds to a sparse but growing literature on the economic costs and benefits of hosting refugees, including a unique policy of providing refugees with access to cultivable land. We construct a general equilibrium model from microsurvey data to simulate the spillover effects of giving land to refugees on income and production in the host-country economy surrounding a refugee settlement in Uganda. Reduced-form econometric analysis of land allocations at the refugee settlement, robust to several specifications, confirms the simulation finding that providing refugees with agricultural land significantly improves their welfare and self-reliance. Simulations reveal that refugee aid and land allocations generate positive income spillovers in the local economy out to a 15-km radius around the refugee settlement. Host-country households benefit significantly from the income spillovers that refugee assistance creates, and host-country agriculture is the largest beneficiary among production sectors.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; MyanmarSSP; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; MAPSA, DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; Feed the Future Initiative; MAPSA; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), This paper empirically investigates the role of off-farm and non-agricultural activities in Myanmar’s rural sector, based primarily on the nationally representative MLCS 2016/17. We find evidence of extensive diversification: rural households are generating about 25 percent of their income on the farm; the remaining income comes from wage labor (34 percent), non-agricultural businesses (27 percent), and about 15 percent from passive sources (remittances and others). More than half of rural households engage in non-farm activities. Despite this large participation, the non-farm sector is informal and has yet to reach its full job-creating potential. Diversification is broad-reaching, and prevalent at all levels of income; however, wealthier households participate more heavily in the non-farm sector. Land constraints, household size, education levels, and gender all appear correlated with households’ propensity to diversify. Since the start of the twin crises, we continue to see significant diversification in rural incomes and all sectors – farm and non-farm – suffering very similar income shocks.

PR, IFPRI3; CRP2; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; Capacity Strengthening; MyanmarSSP; ISI; IFPRIOA, DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), The past decade has seen a resurgence of interest in the role of mechanization in agricultural development. This literature has given rise to debates over the design of institutions and policies to facilitate accelerated mechanization, the role of outsourcing services in overcoming problems of access to machinery, and questions regarding the future of smallholder agriculture. We contribute to these debates using two pairs of complementary demand side (farm household) and supply side (agricultural machinery retailer) surveys, implemented in Myanmar in 2016 and 2017 across two major agro-ecological zones. Our analysis provides evidence that extremely rapid agricultural mechanization took place during the period of political and economic reforms from 2011 to 2020. In both zones surveyed, use of machinery for land preparation, harvesting, and threshing was close to scale-neutral due to a dynamic outsourcing services market. Rather than representing a single transformational change, mechanization’s broad appeal to farm households results from an accumulation of incremental, overlapping, complementary advantages. These include labor savings, reduced drudgery, convenience, increased speed and timeliness of operations, improved ability to manage weather-related risks, and reduced loss of grain during harvesting. We provide examples of policies on trade, finance, and land tenure that contributed to this transformation with practical implications for ongoing policy debates on mechanization in other countries, and suggest some generalizable lessons.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; MyanmarSSP; CRP2; MAPSA; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Rural out-migration to both domestic and international destinations counts among the key phenomena that defined a decade of transformation in Myanmar from the 2011 economic reforms until the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We analyze data from four surveys conducted in different areas of rural Myanmar from 2015 to 2018, along with relevant literature, to highlight trends in migration and its contributions to economic growth and rural development. Studied areas include Mon State, as well as parts of the Ayeyarwady Delta, the Central Dry Zone, and Shan State.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; MyanmarSSP; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; MAPSA, DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), This working paper synthesizes findings from four large household and community surveys in Myanmar, each covering a major agro-ecological zone, to evaluate inter-regional variations in the composition of agriculture, livelihoods, and the rural economy, and prospects for production and income growth.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; CRP2; IFPRIOA, DSGD; PHND; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Refugee sites throughout the world are loci of economic activity, including small enterprises, but limited information exists on these. We advance knowledge by collecting and analysing data on 326 enterprises operating inside and outside Rohingya settlements in southeastern Bangladesh. We find the following: refugees have access to a diverse array of active businesses; Bangladeshis and Rohingya both operate businesses and the two communities interact through transactions in local goods, services, inputs, and labour markets; lending plays an important role in sustaining these economies, as approximately 50 per cent of transactions are on credit; Rohingya-run enterprises face greater challenges than their local counterparts: their businesses are smaller and less profitable, and refugee workers are paid lower wages than local workers; and about half of the difference in performance between Rohingya and Bangladeshis can be explained by levels of start-up capital, scale, location, and education.

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; CRP2; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all, PHND; DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Objective: To examine associations between receipt of an electronic food voucher (e-voucher) compared to food rations on the nutritional status of Rohingya children living in refugee camps in Bangladesh. Methods: This is an associational study using cross-sectional data. We measured heights and weights of 523 children aged between 6 and 23 months in households receiving either a food ration consisting of rice, pulses, vegetable oil (362 children) or an e-voucher (161 children) that could be used to purchase 19 different foods. Data were also collected on the characteristics of their mothers and the households in which they lived, including household demographics, consumption and expenditure, coping strategies, livelihoods and income profiles, and access to assistance. Associations between measures of anthropometric status (height-for-age z scores, stunting, weight-for-height z scores, wasting, weight-for-age z scores and mid-upper arm circumference) and household receipt of the e-voucher were estimated using ordinary least squares regressions. Control variables included child, maternal, household and locality characteristics. The study received ethical approval from the Institutional Review Board of the International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC. Results: Household receipt of an e-voucher was associated with improved linear growth in children. This association is robust to the inclusion of maternal, household and location characteristics. The magnitude of the association is 0.38 SD (CI: 0.01, 0.74), and statistically significant at the five percent level. We cannot reject the null hypothesis that these associations differ by child sex. Receipt of an e-voucher is not associated with stunting when a full set of control variables are included. There is no association between receipt of e-vouchers and weight-for-length, weight-for-age or mid-upper arm circumference. We cannot reject the null hypothesis that these associations differ by child sex. Conclu

PR, IFPRI3; ISI; CRP2, DSGD; PIM, 19 pages, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Non-PR, IFPRI5, DSGD

PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; DCA, DSGD; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), In late 2017, some 671,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar to Cox’s Bazar District in Bangladesh, where they joined 213,000 Rohingya who were already living there after having themselves fled earlier waves of violence. The Rohingya population now significantly outnumbers the host community in two areas of the district, prompting a recent study of how both the migrants and host community are faring in terms of employment, health, access to assistance, and general wellbeing.

Non-PR, IFPRI5; CRP2, DSGD; PIM, 44 pages, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Whether and how immigration affects labour markets is a hotly-debated and widely-studied topic. By contrast, the converse question of how emigration impacts labour markets in the source economy has remained largely understudied. In particular, whether outflows of labourers lead to higher wages in their home countries has only been addressed in a handful of studies. This paper contributes to filling this knowledge gap using data from Myanmar. We collected primary household data from rural Mon State, a southern state neighbouring Thailand. Analysis shows that over a quarter of the labour force is currently migrating for work. Relying on variation in local wages at the village level, regression estimates reveal a significant relationship between migration and wages of unskilled agricultural workers. We use measures of past migration in an instrumental variables framework to further show that this relationship is likely causal. Rapidly rising wages in Myanmar bring both opportunities and challenges, and carry deep consequences for the development trajectory of the country.

Non-PR, IFPRI1; CRP2; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, DSGD; PHND; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), In the context of the massive influx of Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals to Bangladesh, this paper aims to evaluate the potential consequences on the Southern Bangladesh economy. It adopts an economywide perspective to study the impacts of increased labor supply and increased consumer demand in a general equilibrium framework, using a Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) model. The model is used to illustrate the potential effect of a large arrival of displaced populations on wages, the supply and demand of goods, and incomes of migrant and host populations. Simulations enable comparisons between possible scenarios, including two options for the size of the market being impacted (either the smaller Cox’s Bazar District, or the larger Chittagong Division) and several options for aid provisions from international actors. The databases used are the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN) and Host Community Household Survey carried out by IFPRI, BIDS, WFP and ACF in late 2018 and the official Bangladesh Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016. We find that if the migrants enter the Cox Bazar labor markets only, their large number could potentially lead to a large drop in wage levels of around 30%. However, under similar conditions their impact in the much larger Chittagong Division would be limited to a drop of less than 4%. Cash transfers to migrants could mitigate the wage effects by stimulating local demand, but this effect is limited. Some local households may be hurt due to lower wages and higher prices. Matched transfers to local populations and investments in local industry could potentially offset some of these negative impacts.

PR, IFPRI3; DCA; ISI; CRP2; Capacity Strengthening; 1 Fostering Climate-Resilient and Sustainable Food Supply; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; IFPRIOA, DSGD; PIM; ECAO, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

Non-PR, IFPRI1; MyanmarSSP; CRP2; MAPSA; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies, MTID; PIM, CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM), Rural out-migration to both domestic and international destinations counts among the key phenomena that defined a decade of transformation in Myanmar from the 2011 economic reforms until the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. We analyze data from four surveys conducted in different areas of rural Myanmar from 2015 to 2018, along with relevant literature, to highlight trends in migration and its contributions to economic growth and rural development. Studied areas include Mon State, as well as parts of the Ayeyarwady Delta, the Central Dry Zone, and Shan State.