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Elevated CO2 (eCO2) experiments provide critical information to quantify the effects of rising CO2 on vegetation1–6. Many eCO2 experiments suggest that nutrient limitations modulate the local magnitude of the eCO2 effect on plant biomass1,3,5, but the global extent of these limitations has not been empirically quantified, complicating projections of the capacity of plants to take up CO27,8. Here, we present a data-driven global quantification of the eCO2 effect on biomass based on 138 eCO2 experiments. The strength of CO2 fertilization is primarily driven by nitrogen (N) in ~65% of global vegetation and by phosphorus (P) in ~25% of global vegetation, with N- or P-limitation modulated by mycorrhizal association. Our approach suggests that CO2 levels expected by 2100 can potentially enhance plant biomass by 12 ± 3% above current values, equivalent to 59 ± 13 PgC. The global-scale response to eCO2 we derive from experiments is similar to past changes in greenness9 and biomass10 with rising CO2, suggesting that CO2 will continue to stimulate plant biomass in the future despite the constraining effect of soil nutrients. Our research reconciles conflicting evidence on CO2 fertilization across scales and provides an empirical estimate of the biomass sensitivity to eCO2 that may help to constrain climate projections.

The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

Soils are globally significant sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2. Increasing the resolution of soil carbon turnover estimates is important for predicting the response of soil carbon cycling to environmental change. We show that soil carbon turnover times can be more finely resolved using a dual isotope label like the one provided by elevated CO2 experiments that use fossil CO2. We modeled each soil physical fraction as two pools with different turnover times using the atmospheric 14C bomb spike in combination with the label in 14C and 13C provided by an elevated CO2 experiment in a California annual grassland. In sandstone and serpentine soils, the light fraction carbon was 21-54% fast cycling with 2-9 yr turnover, and 36-79% slow cycling with turnover slower than 100 yr. This validates model treatment of the light fraction as active and intermediate cycling carbon. The dense, mineral-associated fraction also had a very dynamic component, consisting of ∼7% fast-cycling carbon and ∼93% very slow cycling carbon. Similarly, half the microbial biomass carbon in the sandstone soil was more than 5 yr old, and 40% of the carbon respired by microbes had been fixed more than 5 yr ago. Resolving each density fraction into two pools revealed that only a small component of total soil carbon is responsible for most CO2 efflux from these soils. In the sandstone soil, 11% of soil carbon contributes more than 90% of the annual CO2 efflux. The fact that soil physical fractions, designed to isolate organic material of roughly homogeneous physico-chemical state, contain material of dramatically different turnover times is consistent with recent observations of rapid isotope incorporation into seemingly stable fractions and with emerging evidence for hot spots or micro-site variation of decomposition within the soil matrix. Predictions of soil carbon storage using a turnover time estimated with the assumption of a single pool per density fraction would greatly overestimate the near-term response to changes in productivity or decomposition rates. Therefore, these results suggest a slower initial change in soil carbon storage due to environmental change than has been assumed by simpler (one-pool) mass balance calculations.©Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

Measurements of atmospheric O2 and CO2 concentrations serve as a widely used means to partition global land and ocean carbon sinks. Interpretation of these measurements has assumed that the terrestrial biosphere contributes to changing O2 levels by either expanding or contracting in size, and thus serving as either a carbon sink or source (and conversely as either an oxygen source or sink). Here, we show how changes in atmospheric O2 can also occur if carbon within the terrestrial biosphere becomes more reduced or more oxidized, even with a constant carbon pool. At a global scale, we hypothesize that increasing levels of disturbance within many biomes has favored plant functional types with lower oxidative ratios and that this has caused carbon within the terrestrial biosphere to become increasingly more oxidized over a period of decades. Accounting for this mechanism in the global atmospheric O2 budget may require a small increase in the size of the land carbon sink. In a scenario based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model, a cumulative decrease in the oxidative ratio of net primary production (NPP) (moles of O2 produced per mole of CO2 fixed in NPP) by 0.01 over a period of 100 years would create an O2 disequilibrium of 0.0017 and require an increased land carbon sink of 0.1 PgCyr1 to balance global atmospheric O2 and CO2 budgets. At present, however, it is challenging to directly measure the oxidative ratio of terrestrial ecosystem exchange and even more difficult to detect a disequilibrium caused by a changing oxidative ratio of NPP. Information on plant and soil chemical composition complement gas exchange approaches for measuring the oxidative ratio, particularly for understanding how this quantity may respond to various global change processes over annual to decadal timescales. © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Fire is a major disturbance in the boreal forest, and has been shown to release significant amounts of carbon (C) to the atmosphere through combustion. However, less is known about the effects on ecosystems following fire, which include reduced productivity and changes in decomposition in the decade immediately following the disturbance. In this study, we assessed the impact of fire on net primary productivity (NPP) in the North American boreal forest using a 17-year record of satellite NDVI observations at 8-km spatial resolution together with a light-use efficiency model. We identified 61 fire scars in the satellite observations using digitized fire burn perimeters from a database of large fires. We studied the postfire response of NPP by analyzing the most impacted pixel within each burned area. NPP decreased in the year following the fire by 60-260g CM-2 yr-1 (30-80%). By comparing pre- and postfire observations, we estimated a mean NPP recovery period for boreal forests of about 9 years, with substantial variability among fires. We incorporated this behavior into a carbon cycle model simulation to demonstrate these effects on net ecosystem production. The disturbance resulted in a release of C to the atmosphere during the first 8 years, followed by a small, but long-lived, sink lasting 150 years. Postfire net emissions were three times as large as from a model run without changing NPP. However, only small differences in the C cycle occurred between runs after 8 years due to the rapid recovery of NPP. We conclude by discussing the effects of fire on the long-term continental trends in satellite NDVI observed across boreal North America during the 1980s and 1990s.

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) provides global monthly measurements of both oceanic phytoplankton chlorophyll biomass and light harvesting by land plants. These measurements allowed the comparison of simultaneous ocean and land net primary production (NPP) responses to a major El Niño to La Niña transition. Between September 1997 and August 2000, biospheric NPP varied by 6 petagrams of carbon per year (from 111 to 117 petagrams of carbon per year). Increases in ocean NPP were pronounced in tropical regions where El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on upwelling and nutrient availability were greatest. Globally, land NPP did not exhibit a clear ENSO response, although regional changes were substantial.

Understanding terrestrial carbon metabolism is critical because terrestrial ecosystems play a major role in the global carbon cycle. Furthermore, humans have severely disrupted the carbon cycle in ways that will alter the climate system and directly affect terrestrial metabolism. Changes in terrestrial metabolism may well be as important an indicator of global change as the changing temperature signal. Improving our understanding of the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales will require the integration of multiple, complementary and independent methods that are used by different research communities. Tools such as air sampling networks, inverse numerical methods, and satellite data (top-down approaches) allow us to study the strength and location of the global- and continental-scale carbon sources and sinks. Bottom-up studies provide estimates of carbon fluxes at finer spatial scales and examine the mechanisms that control fluxes at the ecosystem, landscape, and regional scales. Bottom-up approaches include comparative and process studies (for example, ecosystem manipulative experiments) that provide the necessary mechanistic information to develop and validate terrestrial biospheric models. An iteration and reiteration of top-down and bottom-up approaches will be necessary to help constrain measurements at various scales. We propose a major international effort to coordinate and lead research programs of global scope of the carbon cycle.

Understanding terrestrial carbon metabolism is critical because terrestrial ecosystems play a major role in the global carbon cycle. Furthermore, humans have severely disrupted the carbon cycle in ways that will alter the climate system and directly affect terrestrial metabolism. Changes in terrestrial metabolism may well be as important an indicator of global change as the changing temperature signal. Improving our understanding of the carbon cycle at various spatial and temporal scales will require the integration of multiple, complementary and independent methods that are used by different research communities. Tools such as air sampling networks, inverse numerical methods, and satellite data (top-down approaches) allow us to study the strength and location of the global- and continental-scale carbon sources and sinks. Bottom-up studies provide estimates of carbon fluxes at finer spatial scales and examine the mechanisms that control fluxes at the ecosystem, landscape, and regional scales. Bottom-up approaches include comparative and process studies (for example, ecosystem manipulative experiments) that provide the necessary mechanistic information to develop and validate terrestrial biospheric models. An iteration and reiteration of top-down and bottom-up approaches will be necessary to help constrain measurements at various scales. We propose a major international effort to coordinate and lead research programs of global scope of the carbon cycle.

Integrating conceptually similar models of the growth of marine and terrestrial primary producers yielded an estimated global net primary production (NPP) of 104.9 petagrams of carbon per year, with roughly equal contributions from land and oceans. Approaches based on satellite indices of absorbed solar radiation indicate marked heterogeneity in NPP for both land and oceans, reflecting the influence of physical and ecological processes. The spatial and temporal distributions of ocean NPP are consistent with primary limitation by light, nutrients, and temperature. On land, water limitation imposes additional constraints. On land and ocean, progressive changes in NPP can result in altered carbon storage, although contrasts in mechanisms of carbon storage and rates of organic matter turnover result in a range of relations between carbon storage and changes in NPP.

We characterized decadal changes in the amplitude and shape of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 with three kinds of analysis. First, we calculated the trends in the seasonal cycle of measured atmospheric CO2 at observation stations in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory network. Second, we assessed the impact of terrestrial ecosystems in various localities on the mean seasonal cycle of CO2 at observation stations using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach terrestrial biosphere model and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) atmospheric tracer transport model. Third, we used the GISS tracer model to quantify the contribution of terrestrial sources and sinks to trends in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 for the period 1961-1990, specifically examining the effects of biomass burning, emissions from fossil fuel combustion, and regional increases in net primary production (NPP). Our analysis supports results from previous studies that indicate a significant positive increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of CO2 at Arctic and subarctic observation stations. For stations north of 55°N the amplitude increased at a mean rate of 0.66% yr-1 from 1981 to 1995. From the analysis of ecosystem impacts on the mean seasonal cycle we find that tundra, boreal forest, and other northern ecosystems are responsible for most of the seasonal variation in CO2 at stations north of 55°N. The effects of tropical biomass burning on trends in the seasonal cycle are minimal at these stations, probably because of strong vertical convection in equatorial regions. From 1981 to 1990, fossil fuel emissions contributed a trend of 0.20% yr-1 to the seasonal cycle amplitude at Mauna Loa and less than 0.10% yr-1 at stations north of 55°N. To match the observed amplitude increases at Arctic and subarctic stations with NPP increases, we find that north of 30°N a 1.7 Pg C yr-1 terrestrial sink would be required. In contrast, over regions south of 30°N, even large NPP increases and accompanying terrestrial sinks would be insufficient to account for the increase in high-latitude amplitudes.

Californian annual grassland on sandstone (moderately fertile) and serpentine (very infertile) soils at the Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Stanford, California, were exposed to ambient or elevated (ambient + 36 Pa CO2) atmospheric CO2 in open-top chambers since December 1991. We measured ecosystem evapotranspiration with open gas-exchange systems, and sell moisture with time-domain reflectometry (TDR) over 0-15 cm (serpentine) and 0-30 cm (sandstone) depths, at times of peak above ground physiological activity. Evapotranspiration decreased by 12 to 63 percent under elevated CO2 in three consecutive years in the sandstone ecosystem (p = 0.053, p = 0.162, p = 0.082 in 1992, 1993, and 1994, respectively). In correspondence with decreased evapotranspiration, late-season sell moisture reserves in the sandstone were extended temporally by 10 ± 3 days in 1993 and by 28 ± 11 days in 1994. The effect of elevated CO2 on soil moisture was greater in the drier spring of 1994 (419 mm annual rainfall) than in 1993 (905 mm annual rainfall). In the serpentine ecosystem, evapotranspiration and soil moisture reserves were not clearly affected by elevated CO2. Soil water may be conserved in drought-affected ecosystems exposed to elevated CO2, hut the amount of conservation appears to depend on the relative importance of transpiration and soil evaporation in controlling water flux.

Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) is sensitive to a number of controls, including aspects of climate, topography, soils, plant and microbial characteristics, disturbance, and anthropogenic impacts. Yet, at least at the global scale, models based on very different types and numbers of parameters yield similar results. Part of the reason for this is that the major NPP controls influence each other, resulting, under current conditions, in broad correlations among controls. NPP models that include richer suites of controlling parameters should be more sensitive to conditions that disrupt the broad correlations, but the current paucity of global data limits the power of complex models. Improved data sets will facilitate applications of complex models, but many of the critical data are very difficult to produce, especially for applications dealing with the past or future. It may be possible to overcome some of the challenges of data availability through increased understanding and modeling of ecological processes that adjust plant physiology and architecture in relation to resources. The CASA (Carnegie, Stanford, Ames Approach) model introduced by Potter et al. (1993) and expanded here uses a combination of ecological principles, satellite data, and surface data to predict terrestrial NPP on a monthly time step. CASA calculates NPP as a product of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation, APAR, and an efficiency of radiation use, ε{lunate}. The underlying postulate is that some of the limitations on NPP appear in each. CASA estimates annual terrestrial NPP to be 48 Pg and the maximum efficiency of PAR utilization (ε{lunate}*) to be 0.39 g C MJ-1 PAR. Spatial and temporal variation in APAR is more than fivefold greater than variation in ε{lunate}. © 1995.

Many terrestrial plant communities, especially forests, have been shown to lag in response to rapid climate change. Grassland communities may respond more quickly to novel climates, as they consist mostly of short-lived species, which are directly exposed to macroclimate change. Here we report the rapid response of grassland communities to climate change in the California Floristic Province. We estimated 349 vascular plant species' climatic niches from 829,337 occurrence records, compiled 15 long-term community composition datasets from 12 observational studies and 3 global change experiments, and analysed community compositional shifts in the climate niche space. We show that communities experienced significant shifts towards species associated with warmer and drier locations at rates of 0.0216 ± 0.00592 °C yr - 1 (mean ± s.e.) and -3.04 ± 0.742 mm yr - 1 , and these changes occurred at a pace similar to that of climate warming and drying. These directional shifts were consistent across observations and experiments. Our findings contrast with the lagged responses observed in communities dominated by long-lived plants and suggest greater biodiversity changes than expected in the near future., Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Bold action is needed to address unmanageable time scales, limited access to information, and a need to build capacity.

Global climate models predict that the frequency and intensity of precipitation events will increase in many regions across the world. However, the biosphere-climate feedback to elevated precipitation (eP) remains elusive. Here, we report a study on one of the longest field experiments assessing the effects of eP, alone or in combination with other climate change drivers such as elevated CO 2 (eCO 2 ), warming and nitrogen deposition. Soil total carbon (C) decreased after a decade of eP treatment, while plant root production decreased after 2 years. To explain this asynchrony, we found that the relative abundances of fungal genes associated with chitin and protein degradation increased and were positively correlated with bacteriophage genes, suggesting a potential viral shunt in C degradation. In addition, eP increased the relative abundances of microbial stress tolerance genes, which are essential for coping with environmental stressors. Microbial responses to eP were phylogenetically conserved. The effects of eP on soil total C, root production, and microbes were interactively affected by eCO 2 . Collectively, we demonstrate that long-term eP induces soil C loss, owing to changes in microbial community composition, functional traits, root production, and soil moisture. Our study unveils an important, previously unknown biosphere-climate feedback in Mediterranean-type water-limited ecosystems, namely how eP induces soil C loss via microbe-plant-soil interplay., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Wildfire modifies the short- and long-term exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, with impacts on ecosystem services such as carbon uptake. Dry western US forests historically experienced low-intensity, frequent fires, with patches across the landscape occupying different points in the fire-recovery trajectory. Contemporary perturbations, such as recent severe fires in California, could shift the historic stand-age distribution and impact the legacy of carbon uptake on the landscape. Here, we combine flux measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and chronosequence analysis using satellite remote sensing to investigate how the last century of fires in California impacted the dynamics of ecosystem carbon uptake on the fire-affected landscape. A GPP recovery trajectory curve of more than five thousand fires in forest ecosystems since 1919 indicated that fire reduced GPP by [Formula: see text] g C m[Formula: see text] y[Formula: see text]([Formula: see text]) in the first year after fire, with average recovery to prefire conditions after [Formula: see text] y. The largest fires in forested ecosystems reduced GPP by [Formula: see text] g C m[Formula: see text] y[Formula: see text] ( n = 401) and took more than two decades to recover. Recent increases in fire severity and recovery time have led to nearly [Formula: see text] MMT CO[Formula: see text] (3-y rolling mean) in cumulative forgone carbon uptake due to the legacy of fires on the landscape, complicating the challenge of maintaining California's natural and working lands as a net carbon sink. Understanding these changes is paramount to weighing the costs and benefits associated with fuels management and ecosystem management for climate change mitigation.

Since the 1930s, California's Sierra Nevada has warmed by an average of 1.2 ∘ C. Warming directly primes forests for easier wildfire ignition, but the change in climate also affects vegetation species composition. Different types of vegetation support unique fire regimes with distinct probabilities of catastrophic wildfire, and anticipating vegetation transitions is an important but undervalued component of long-term wildfire management and adaptation. Vegetation transitions are more likely where the climate has become unsuitable but the species composition remains static. This vegetation climate mismatch (VCM) can result in vegetation conversions, particularly after a disturbance like wildfire. Here we produce estimates of VCM within conifer-dominated forests in the Sierra Nevada. Observations from the 1930s Wieslander Survey provide a foundation for characterizing the historical relationship between Sierra Nevada vegetation and climate before the onset of recent, rapid climate change. Based on comparing the historical climatic niche to the modern distribution of conifers and climate, ∼19.5% of modern Sierra Nevada coniferous forests are experiencing VCM, 95% of which is below an elevation of 2356 m. We found that these VCM estimates carry empirical consequences: likelihood of type-conversion increased by 9.2% for every 10% decrease in habitat suitability. Maps of Sierra Nevada VCM can help guide long-term land management decisions by distinguishing areas likely to transition from those expected to remain stable in the near future. This can help direct limited resources to their most effective uses-whether it be protecting land or managing vegetation transitions-in the effort to maintain biodiversity, ecosystem services, and public health in the Sierra Nevada., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.)

Background: Anthropogenic activities have increased the inputs of atmospheric reactive nitrogen (N) into terrestrial ecosystems, affecting soil carbon stability and microbial communities. Previous studies have primarily examined the effects of nitrogen deposition on microbial taxonomy, enzymatic activities, and functional processes. Here, we examined various functional traits of soil microbial communities and how these traits are interrelated in a Mediterranean-type grassland administrated with 14 years of 7 g m -2 year -1 of N amendment, based on estimated atmospheric N deposition in areas within California, USA, by the end of the twenty-first century., Results: Soil microbial communities were significantly altered by N deposition. Consistent with higher aboveground plant biomass and litter, fast-growing bacteria, assessed by abundance-weighted average rRNA operon copy number, were favored in N deposited soils. The relative abundances of genes associated with labile carbon (C) degradation (e.g., amyA and cda) were also increased. In contrast, the relative abundances of functional genes associated with the degradation of more recalcitrant C (e.g., mannanase and chitinase) were either unchanged or decreased. Compared with the ambient control, N deposition significantly reduced network complexity, such as average degree and connectedness. The network for N deposited samples contained only genes associated with C degradation, suggesting that C degradation genes became more intensely connected under N deposition., Conclusions: We propose a conceptual model to summarize the mechanisms of how changes in above- and belowground ecosystems by long-term N deposition collectively lead to more soil C accumulation. Video Abstract., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Here, we describe a model of C 3 , C 3 -C 4 intermediate, and C 4 photosynthesis that is designed to facilitate quantitative analysis of physiological measurements. The model relates the factors limiting electron transport and carbon metabolism, the regulatory processes that coordinate these metabolic domains, and the responses to light, carbon dioxide, and temperature. It has three unique features. First, mechanistic expressions describe how the cytochrome b 6 f complex controls electron transport in mesophyll and bundle sheath chloroplasts. Second, the coupling between the mesophyll and bundle sheath expressions represents how feedback regulation of Cyt b 6 f coordinates electron transport and carbon metabolism. Third, the temperature sensitivity of Cyt b 6 f is differentiated from that of the coupling between NADPH, Fd, and ATP production. Using this model, we present simulations demonstrating that the light dependence of the carbon dioxide compensation point in C 3 -C 4 leaves can be explained by co-occurrence of light saturation in the mesophyll and light limitation in the bundle sheath. We also present inversions demonstrating that population-level variation in the carbon dioxide compensation point in a Type I C 3 -C 4 plant, Flaveria chloraefolia, can be explained by variable allocation of photosynthetic capacity to the bundle sheath. These results suggest that Type I C 3 -C 4 intermediate plants adjust pigment and protein distributions to optimize the glycine shuttle under different light and temperature regimes, and that the malate and aspartate shuttles may have originally functioned to smooth out the energy supply and demand associated with the glycine shuttle. This model has a wide range of potential applications to physiological, ecological, and evolutionary questions., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Due to climate change, plant populations experience environmental conditions to which they are not adapted. Our understanding of the next century's vegetation geography depends on the distance, direction, and rate at which plant distributions shift in response to a changing climate. In this study we test the sensitivity of tree range shifts (measured as the difference between seedling and mature tree ranges in climate space) to wildfire occurrence, using 74,069 Forest Inventory Analysis plots across nine states in the western United States. Wildfire significantly increased the seedling-only range displacement for 2 of the 8 tree species in which seedling-only plots were displaced from tree-plus-seedling plots in the same direction with and without recent fire. The direction of climatic displacement was consistent with that expected for warmer and drier conditions. The greater seedling-only range displacement observed across burned plots suggests that fire can accelerate climate-related range shifts and that fire and fire management will play a role in the rate of vegetation redistribution in response to climate change., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

One of the lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic is the importance of social distancing, even in challenging circumstances such as pre-hurricane evacuation. To explore the implications of integrating social distancing with evacuation operations, we describe this evacuation process as a Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) and solve it using a DNN (Deep Neural Network)-based solution (Deep Reinforcement Learning) and a non-DNN solution (Sweep Algorithm). A central question is whether Deep Reinforcement Learning provides sufficient extra routing efficiency to accommodate increased social distancing in a time-constrained evacuation operation. We found that, in comparison to the Sweep Algorithm, Deep Reinforcement Learning can provide decision-makers with more efficient routing. However, the evacuation time saved by Deep Reinforcement Learning does not come close to compensating for the extra time required for social distancing, and its advantage disappears as the emergency vehicle capacity approaches the number of people per household., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest.

Eddy covariance measurement systems provide direct observation of the exchange of greenhouse gases between ecosystems and the atmosphere, but have only occasionally been intentionally applied to quantify the carbon dynamics associated with specific climate mitigation strategies. Natural climate solutions (NCS) harness the photosynthetic power of ecosystems to avoid emissions and remove atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), sequestering it in biological carbon pools. In this perspective, we aim to determine which kinds of NCS strategies are most suitable for ecosystem-scale flux measurements and how these measurements should be deployed for diverse NCS scales and goals. We find that ecosystem-scale flux measurements bring unique value when assessing NCS strategies characterized by inaccessible and hard-to-observe carbon pool changes, important non-CO 2 greenhouse gas fluxes, the potential for biophysical impacts, or dynamic successional changes. We propose three deployment types for ecosystem-scale flux measurements at various NCS scales to constrain wide uncertainties and chart a workable path forward: "pilot", "upscale", and "monitor". Together, the integration of ecosystem-scale flux measurements by the NCS community and the prioritization of NCS measurements by the flux community, have the potential to improve accounting in ways that capture the net impacts, unintended feedbacks, and on-the-ground specifics of a wide range of emerging NCS strategies.

The potential links between climate and conflict are well studied, yet disagreement about the specific mechanisms and their significance for societies persists. Here, we build on assessment of the relationship between climate and organized armed conflict to define crosscutting priorities for future directions of research. They include (1) deepening insight into climate-conflict linkages and conditions under which they manifest, (2) ambitiously integrating research designs, (3) systematically exploring future risks and response options, responsive to ongoing decision-making, and (4) evaluating the effectiveness of interventions to manage climate-conflict links. The implications of this expanding scientific domain unfold in real time., Competing Interests: The authors declare no financial or other conflicts of interests., (©2020. The Authors.)

Forests have considerable potential to help mitigate human-caused climate change and provide society with many cobenefits. However, climate-driven risks may fundamentally compromise forest carbon sinks in the 21st century. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of climate-driven risks to forest stability from fire, drought, biotic agents, and other disturbances. We review how efforts to use forests as natural climate solutions presently consider and could more fully embrace current scientific knowledge to account for these climate-driven risks. Recent advances in vegetation physiology, disturbance ecology, mechanistic vegetation modeling, large-scale ecological observation networks, and remote sensing are improving current estimates and forecasts of the risks to forest stability. A more holistic understanding and quantification of such risks will help policy-makers and other stakeholders effectively use forests as natural climate solutions., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

The rapid anthropogenic climate change that is being experienced in the early twenty-first century is intimately entwined with the health and functioning of the biosphere. Climate change is impacting ecosystems through changes in mean conditions and in climate variability, coupled with other associated changes such as increased ocean acidification and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. There is a need to understand the ecological dynamics of these climate impacts, to identify hotspots of vulnerability and resilience and to identify management interventions that may assist biosphere resilience to climate change. At the same time, ecosystems can also assist in the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change. The mechanisms, potential and limits of such nature-based solutions to climate change need to be explored and quantified. This paper introduces a thematic issue dedicated to the interaction between climate change and the biosphere. It explores novel perspectives on how ecosystems respond to climate change, how ecosystem resilience can be enhanced and how ecosystems can assist in addressing the challenge of a changing climate. It draws on a Royal Society-National Academy of Sciences Forum held in Washington DC in November 2018, where these themes and issues were discussed. We conclude by identifying some priorities for academic research and practical implementation, in order to maximize the potential for maintaining a diverse, resilient and well-functioning biosphere under the challenging conditions of the twenty-first century. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions'.

Fire is a crucial event regulating the structure and functioning of many ecosystems. Yet few studies have focused on how fire affects taxonomic and functional diversities of soil microbial communities, along with changes in plant communities and soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. Here, we analyze these effects in a grassland ecosystem 9 months after an experimental fire at the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment site in California, USA. Fire altered soil microbial communities considerably, with community assembly process analysis showing that environmental selection pressure was higher in burned sites. However, a small subset of highly connected taxa was able to withstand the disturbance. In addition, fire decreased the relative abundances of most functional genes associated with C degradation and N cycling, implicating a slowdown of microbial processes linked to soil C and N dynamics. In contrast, fire stimulated above- and belowground plant growth, likely enhancing plant-microbe competition for soil inorganic N, which was reduced by a factor of about 2. To synthesize those findings, we performed structural equation modeling, which showed that plants but not microbial communities were responsible for significantly higher soil respiration rates in burned sites. Together, our results demonstrate that fire 'reboots' the grassland ecosystem by differentially regulating plant and soil microbial communities, leading to significant changes in soil C and N dynamics., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Energy from biomass plays a large and growing role in the global energy system. Energy from biomass can make significant contributions to reducing carbon emissions, especially from difficult-to-decarbonize sectors like aviation, heavy transport, and manufacturing. But land-intensive bioenergy often entails substantial carbon emissions from land-use change as well as production, harvesting, and transportation. In addition, land-intensive bioenergy scales only with the utilization of vast amounts of land, a resource that is fundamentally limited in supply. Because of the land constraint, the intrinsically low yields of energy per unit of land area, and rapid technological progress in competing technologies, land intensive bioenergy makes the most sense as a transitional element of the global energy mix, playing an important role over the next few decades and then fading, probably after mid-century. Managing an effective trajectory for land-intensive bioenergy will require an unusual mix of policies and incentives that encourage appropriate utilization in the short term but minimize lock-in in the longer term., (© 2019 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Terrestrial photosynthesis is the largest and one of the most uncertain fluxes in the global carbon cycle. We find that near-infrared reflectance of vegetation (NIR V ), a remotely sensed measure of canopy structure, accurately predicts photosynthesis at FLUXNET validation sites at monthly to annual timescales (R 2  = 0.68), without the need for difficult to acquire information about environmental factors that constrain photosynthesis at short timescales. Scaling the relationship between gross primary production (GPP) and NIR V from FLUXNET eddy covariance sites, we estimate global annual terrestrial photosynthesis to be 147 Pg C/year (95% credible interval 131-163 Pg C/year), which falls between bottom-up GPP estimates and the top-down global constraint on GPP from oxygen isotopes. NIR V -derived estimates of GPP are systematically higher than existing bottom-up estimates, especially throughout the midlatitudes. Progress in improving estimated GPP from NIR V can come from improved cloud screening in satellite data and increased resolution of vegetation characteristics, especially details about plant photosynthetic pathway., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)