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We have found that the excitation of the North Annular Mode (NAM) of the wintertime geopotential height anomalies between 10 hPa and 1000 hPa is influenced by solar cycle changes and the effect is highly statistically significant.

Solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can cause hazadous high-energy particles and geomagnetic storms that, in the more serious instances, can disrupt Earth power grids, communications, and satellites.

We use the aa index of geomagnetic activity recorded for 130 years as a proxy for the strenght and phase properties of the solar dynamo.

A detailed conceptual design has been developed for a mission and microspacecraft that can provide information needed to answer key questions about the physics of space weather and also both provide and validate a system for early warning of hazardous space weather.

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Direct measurements of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field acquired over more than three solar cycles both near Earth and in interplanetary space are used to search for signatures of a persistent dependence of solar wind properties on solar longitude.

The development of new technologies and the miniaturization of sensors bring new requirements for our ability to predict and forecast hazardous space weather conditions.

High energy cosmic rays may influence the formation of clouds, and thus can have an impact on weather and climate. Cosmic rays in the solar wind are incident on the magnetosphere boundary and are then transmitted through the magnetosphere and atmosphere to reach the upper troposphere.

The interaction of magnetic flux tubes as a source of activity is widely discussed in astrophysics.

On April 14, 1994 a major coronal mass ejection (CME) occured while the solar atmosphere was being observed in XUV by the Terek C instrument aboard the CORONAS spacecraft. We here compare the TEREK data before and after the CME with the Yohkoh soft x-ray data and the National Solar Observatory He I 10830 data from April 13 and 14.

Manned spaecraft will require a much improved ability to forecast solar particle events. The lead time required will depend on the use to which the forecast is put. Here we discuss problems of forecasting with the lead times of hours to weeks.

The problems that can be solved by combining the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and the magnetic structures on and around the sun (MagSonas) observations are discussed. A magneto-Doppler imager and X and Ka band linearly polarized radio signals sent to the other side of the sun can support extended SOHO mission. This is the purpose of the MagSonas mission. The MagSonas radio system, designed to serve as spacecraft communications and a sounding coronal magnetic field, is described.

Solar variations, including active regions, flares, coronal mass ejections and solar wind, originates in magnetic fields.

Solar energetic particle events (SEPEs) can have a significant effect on the design and operation of earth orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft. In relation to this, the calculation of proton fluences and fluxes are considered, describing the current state of the art in statistical modeling. A statistical model that can be used for the estimation of integrated proton fluences for different mission durations of greater than one year is reviewed. The gaps in the modeling capabilities of the SEPE environment, such as a proton flux model, alpha particle and heavy ion models and solar cycle variations are described together with the prospects for the prediction of events using neural networks.

There is a myth that all solar effects can be parameterized by the sun spot number. This is not true. For example, the level of geomagnetic activity during this century was not proportional to the sunspot number. Instead there is a large systematic increase in geomagnetic activity, not reflected in the sunspot number. This increase occurred gradually over at least 60 years. The 11 year solar cycle variation was superimposed on this systematic increase. Here we show that this systematic increase in activity is well correlated to the simultaneous increase in terrestrial temperature that occurred during the first half of this century. We discuss these findings in terms of mechanisms by which geomagnetics can be coupled to climate. These mechanisms include possible changes in weather patterns and cloud cover due to increased cosmic ray fluxes, or to increased fluxes of high energy electrons. We suggest that this systematic increase in geomagnetic activity contributed (along with anthropogenic effects and possible changes in solar irradiance) to the changes in climate recorded during this period.

The great active region of March 1989 was the most prolific in X- rays in the preceding 15 years, and produced very large bright optical solar flares. The accompanying solar energetic particle event was one of the four most intense episodes since 1963. These increases in particle fluxes are compared to the major X-ray and optical flares and to the major coronal mass ejections in order to test hypothesis.

The spectra of magnetic field variations in the solar wind show different behavior in two frequency regions; a high frequency region in which the spectral exponent is about -5/3 and a low frequency region in which it is typically -1. The two types of variations must arise from different processes and a clue to the relationship between the spectral regions lies in understanding the behavior of the breakpoint between the spectral regions. Studies of the average behavior of spectra have shown that the break point occurs at about 3.5 hours at 1 AU. It is also known that, on average, the breakpoint occurs at lower frequencies with larger heliocentric distances. Ideally however, instead of the average properties of the spectra, we would like to know how the breakpoint evolves in particular samples of the solar wind as they propagate to larger heliocentric distances. In the study reported here we take advantage of the fact that, in 1974, Pioneer 10 (4.4 AU) and Pioneer 11 (5.6 AU) were close to being co-aligned and being aligned with the Earth. Solar wind observed at Earth can be closely matched with solar wind later observed at P10 and P11. We here compare the breakpoint observed at Earth with that observed at Pioneers 10 and 11 for matched samples of the wind.

The magnetic fields measured by the Ulysses spacecraft are used to study solar wind turbulence in the fast solar wind from the south polar hole. The spacecraft was at about 46 deg south latitude and 3.9 AU. For a magnetic field with a Gaussian distribution the power spectrum (second-order structure function) is sufficient to completely characterize the turbulence. However, the actual distribution is non-Gaussian so that the effects of intermittency must be taken into account. The observed spectral exponents include effects of intermittency and cannot be directly compared with the standard second-order spectral theories such as the Kolmogorov and Kraichnan theories. To permit a better comparison of the observations with the theoretical models, we study the structure characteristics of the data. We find the exponents of the second-order structure functions (power spectra) and the higher-order normalized structure functions for the components of the magnetic fields. We show that these sets of exponents can be approximately described by two basic numbers: the spectral exponent and the intermittency exponent. The intermittency exponent characterizes correlation properties of the energy cascade from large to small scales. Before comparing the observations to the theoretically expected values, a reduction must be made to the observed spectral exponent. The amount of the reduction depends on both the intermittency exponent and the model of the energy cascade assumed in the turbulence theory. We reduce the measured spectral indices according to a simple model for Alfven turbulence that is described here. We then compare our reduced spectral indices with second-order spectral theory. The reduced spectral indices for the period range of 1 min to about a half hour are remarkably constant and in good agreement with the value of 3/2. Thus our treatment is self-consistent. Our tentative conclusion is that the high-frequency turbulence appears to agree with the model of random-phased Alfven waves. This tentative conclusion must be tested by further theoretical and observational work.

We present observational evidence that eruptions of quiescent filaments and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur as a consequence of the destabilization of large-scale coronal arcades due to interactions between these structures and new and growing active regions. Both statistical and case studies have been carried out. In a case study of a 'bulge' observed by the High-Altitude Observatory Solar Maximum Mission coronagraph, the high-resolution magnetograms from the Big Bear Solar Observatory show newly emerging and rapidly changing flux in the magnetic fields that apparently underlie the bugle. For other case studies and in the statistical work the eruption of major quiescent filaments was taken as a proxy for CME eruption. We have found that two thirds of the quiescent-filament-associated CMEs occurred after substantial amounts of new magnetic flux emerged in the vicinity of the filament. In addition, in a study of all major quiescent filaments and active regions appearing in a 2-month period we found that 17 of the 22 filaments that were associated with new active regions erupted and 26 of the 31 filaments that were not associated with new flux did not erupt. In all cases in which the new flux was oriented favorably for reconnection with the preexisting large-scale coronal arcades; the filament was observed to erupt. The appearance of the new flux in the form of new active regions begins a few days before the eruption and typically is still occurring at the time of the eruption. A CME initiation scenario taking account of these observational results is proposed.

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We study the anisotropy of magnetic fluctuations measured by the Ulysses.

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We present observational evidence that eruptions of quiescent filaments and associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur as a consequence of the destabilization of large-scale coronal arcades due to interactions between these structures and new and growing active regions.

The magnetic fields measured by the Ulyses spacecraft are used to study solar wind turbulence in the fast solar wind from the south polar hole.