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2. A global unstructured, coupled, high-resolution hindcast of waves and storm surge

Author

Mentaschi, Lorenzo, Vousdoukas, Michalis, Garcia-Sanchez, Guillermo, Montblanc, Tomas Fernandez, Roland, Aron, Voukouvalas, Evangelos, Federico, Ivan, Abdolali, Ali, Zhang, Yinglong J., and Feyen, Luc

Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

Accurate information on waves and storm surges is essential to understand coastal hazards that are expected to increase in view of global warming and rising sea levels. Despite the recent advancement in development and application of large-scale coastal models, nearshore processes are still not sufficiently resolved due to coarse resolutions, transferring errors to coastal risk assessments and other large-scale applications. Here we developed a 50-year hindcast of waves and storm surges on an unstructured mesh of >650,000 nodes with an unprecedented resolution of 2-4 km at the global coast. Our modelling system is based on the circulation model SCHISM that is fully coupled with the WWM-V (WindWaveModel) and is forced by surface winds, pressure, and ice coverage from the ERA5 reanalysis. Results are compared with observations from satellite altimeters, tidal gauges and buoys, and show good skill for both Sea Surface Height (SSH) and Significant Wave Height (Hs), and a much-improved ability to reproduce the nearshore dynamics compared with previous, lower-resolution studies. Besides SSH, the modelling system also produces a range of other wave-related fields at each node of the mesh with a time step of 3 hours, including the spectral parameters of the first three largest energy peaks. This dataset offers the potential for more accurate global-scale applications on coastal hazard and risk

Published
2023
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6. Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe

Author

Achilleos, Souzana, Kyselý, Jan, Indermitte, Ene, Jaakkola, Jouni J.K., Ryti, Niilo, Pascal, Mathilde, Katsouyanni, Klea, Analitis, Antonis, Goodman, Patrick, Zeka, Ariana, Michelozzi, Paola, Houthuijs, Danny, Ameling, Caroline, Rao, Shilpa, das Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana, Madureira, Joana, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, Tobias, Aurelio, Íñiguez, Carmen, Forsberg, Bertil, Åström, Christofer, Ragettli, Martina S., Surname, First name, Zafeiratou, Sofia, Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana, Monteiro, Ana, Rai, Masna, Zhang, Siqi, Aunan, Kristin, Masselot, Pierre, Mistry, Malcolm, Vanoli, Jacopo, Schneider, Rochelle, Iungman, Tamara, Garcia-Leon, David, Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Feyen, Luc, Orru, Hans, Urban, Aleš, Breitner, Susanne, Huber, Veronika, Schneider, Alexandra, Samoli, Evangelia, Stafoggia, Massimo, de’Donato, Francesca, Armstrong, Ben, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, and Gasparrini, Antonio

Published
2023
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9. Author Correction: Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality

Author

Mistry, Malcolm N., Schneider, Rochelle, Masselot, Pierre, Royé, Dominic, Armstrong, Ben, Kyselý, Jan, Orru, Hans, Sera, Francesco, Tong, Shilu, Lavigne, Éric, Urban, Aleš, Madureira, Joana, García-León, David, Ibarreta, Dolores, Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Feyen, Luc, de Schrijver, Evan, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Pascal, Mathilde, Tobias, Aurelio, Guo, Yuming, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M., and Gasparrini, Antonio

Published
2022
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10. Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality

Author

Mistry, Malcolm N., Schneider, Rochelle, Masselot, Pierre, Royé, Dominic, Armstrong, Ben, Kyselý, Jan, Orru, Hans, Sera, Francesco, Tong, Shilu, Lavigne, Éric, Urban, Aleš, Madureira, Joana, García-León, David, Ibarreta, Dolores, Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, Feyen, Luc, de Schrijver, Evan, de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline, Pascal, Mathilde, Tobias, Aurelio, Guo, Yuming, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M., and Gasparrini, Antonio

Published
2022
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15. Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue for 1950–2020.

Author

Paprotny, Dominik, Rhein, Belinda, Vousdoukas, Michalis I., Terefenko, Paweł, Dottori, Francesco, Treu, Simon, Śledziowski, Jakub, Feyen, Luc, and Kreibich, Heidi

Subjects
FLOOD damage, CLIMATE change, HISTORICAL analysis, DATABASES, COUNTERFACTUALS (Logic), FLOOD risk
Abstract

Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, demographic dynamics, economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. The attribution of those drivers through the use of counterfactual scenarios of hazard, exposure or vulnerability first requires a good representation of historical events, including their location, their intensity and the factual circumstances in which they occurred. Here, we develop a chain of models that is capable of recreating riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe between 1950 and 2020 that had a potential to cause significant socioeconomic impacts. This factual catalogue of almost 15 000 such events was scrutinized with historical records of flood impacts. We found that at least 10 % of them led to significant socioeconomic impacts (including fatalities) according to available sources. The model chain was able to capture events responsible for 96 % of known impacts contained in the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) flood impact database in terms of persons affected and economic losses and for 81 % of fatalities. The dataset enables the study of the drivers of vulnerability and flood adaptation due to a large sample of events with historical impact data. The model chain can be further used to generate counterfactual events, especially those related to climate change and human influence on catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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31. Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue, 1950–2020.

Author

Paprotny, Dominik, Rhein, Belinda, Vousdoukas, Michalis I., Terefenko, Paweł, Dottori, Francesco, Treu, Simon, Śledziowski, Jakub, Feyen, Luc, and Kreibich, Heidi

Subjects
FLOOD risk, FLOOD damage, FLOODS, CLIMATE change, CATALOGS, CATALOGING, COASTS, IMPACT craters
Abstract

Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, demographic dynamics, economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. Attribution of those drivers through the use of counterfactual scenarios of hazard, exposure or vulnerability first requires a good representation of historical events, including their location, intensity and the factual circumstances in which they occurred. Here, we develop a chain of models that is capable of recreating riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe between 1950 and 2020 that had a potential to cause significant socioeconomic impacts. This factual catalogue of almost 15,000 such events was scrutinised with historical records of flood impacts. We found that at least 10 % of them had led to significant socioeconomic impacts (including fatalities) according to available sources. The model chain was able to capture events responsible for 96 % of known impacts contained in the HANZE flood impact database in terms of persons affected and economic losses, and for 81 % of fatalities. The dataset enables studying drivers of vulnerability and flood adaptation due to a large sample of events with historical impact data. The model chain can further be used to generate counterfactual events, especially related to climate change and human influence on catchments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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32. HERA: a high-resolution pan-European hydrological reanalysis (1950-2020).

Author

Tilloy, Aloïs, Paprotny, Dominik, Grimaldi, Stefania, Gomes, Goncalo, Bianchi, Alessandra, Lange, Stefan, Beck, Hylke, and Feyen, Luc

Subjects
HYDROLOGIC cycle, HYDROLOGIC models, CLIMATE change, SPATIAL resolution, WATERSHEDS, LAND use, LAND cover
Abstract

Since 1950, European rivers have been put under increasing pressure by anthropogenic activities, resulting in changes in climate, land cover, soil properties and channel morphologies. These evolving environmental conditions can translate into changes in hydrological conditions. The availability of consistent estimates of river flow at global and continental level is a necessity to assess and attribute changes in the hydrological cycle. To overcome limitations posed by observations (incomplete records, inhomogeneous spatial coverage), we simulate river discharge for Europe for the period 1950 - 2020 using a state-of-the-art hydrological modelling approach. We use the new European set up of the LISFLOOD model, running at 1 arcminute (-1.8 km) with six-hourly time steps. The hydrological model is forced by climate reanalysis data (ERA5-land) bias-corrected and downscaled to the model resolution with weather observations. The model also ingests 72 surface fields maps representing catchment morphology, vegetation, soil properties, land use, water demand, lakes and reservoirs. Inputs related to human activities are evolving through time to emulate changes in society. The resulting Hydrological European ReAnalysis (HERA), provides sixhourly river discharge for 282 521 river pixels with upstream area > 100km2. We assess its skill using 2901 river gauging stations distributed across Europe. Overall, HERA delivers satisfying results, with a general weak underestimation of observed mean discharge and flow variability. We find that the performance of HERA increases through time between 1950 and 2020. The fine spatial and temporal resolution result in an enhanced performance compared to other reanalysis for small-to-medium-scale catchments (100-10 000 km2), with degraded performance remaining for small catchments. HERA is the first long-term, high resolution hydrological reanalysis for Europe. Despite its limitations, it enables the analysis of hydrological dynamics related to extremes, human influences, and climate change at a continental scale while keeping local relevance. It also creates the opportunity to study these dynamics in ungauged catchments across Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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33. Trends in heat and cold wave risks for the Italian Trentino-Alto Adige region from 1980 to 2018

Author

Morlot, Martin, Russo, Simone, Feyen, Luc, and Formetta, Giuseppe

Abstract

Heat waves (HW) and cold waves (CW) can have considerable impact on people. Mapping risks of extreme temperature at local scale accounting for the interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability remains a challenging task. In this study, we quantify human risks from HW and CW at high resolution for theTrentino-Alto Adige region of Italy from 1980 to 2018. We use the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) and a Cold Wave Magnitude Index daily (CWMId) as temperature-based indicators and apply a Tweedie zero-inflated distribution to derive hazard intensities and frequencies. The hazard maps are combined with high-resolution maps of population, for which the vulnerability is quantified at community and city level using a set of eight socioeconomic indicators. We find a statistically significant increase in HW hazard and exposure, with 6.0-times more people exposed to extreme heat after 2000 compared to the last two decades of the previous century. CW hazard and exposure remained stagnant over the studied period in the region. We observe a general trend towards increased resilience to extreme temperature spells over the region. In the larger cities of the region, however, we find that vulnerability has increased due to an ageing population and more single households. HW risk has risen practically everywhere in the region, indicating that the reduction in vulnerability in the smaller communities is outpaced by the increase in HW hazard. In the large cities, HW risk levels in the 2010s are 50 % larger compared to the 1980s due to the rise in both hazard and vulnerability. Whereas in smaller communities, stagnant CW hazard and declining vulnerability results in reduced CW risk levels, the risk level in cities grew by 20 % due to the increased vulnerability over the study period. The findings of our study are highly relevant for steering investments in local risk mitigation measures, while the method can be applied to other regions that have detailed information on hazard, exposure and vulnerability indicators.

Published
2023

34. Climate change impacts on critical international transportation assets of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS): the case of Jamaica and Saint Lucia

Author

Monioudi, Isavela Ν., Asariotis, Regina, Becker, Austin, Bhat, Cassandra, Dowding-Gooden, Danielle, Esteban, Miguel, Feyen, Luc, Mentaschi, Lorenzo, Nikolaou, Antigoni, Nurse, Leonard, Phillips, Willard, Smith, David Α.Υ., Satoh, Mizushi, Trotz, Ulric O’Donnell, Velegrakis, Adonis F., Voukouvalas, Evangelos, Vousdoukas, Michalis I., and Witkop, Robert

Published
2018
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37. Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe

Author

Masselot, Pierre, primary, Mistry, Malcolm, additional, Vanoli, Jacopo, additional, Schneider, Rochelle, additional, Iungman, Tamara, additional, Garcia-Leon, David, additional, Ciscar, Juan-Carlos, additional, Feyen, Luc, additional, Orru, Hans, additional, Urban, Aleš, additional, Breitner, Susanne, additional, Huber, Veronika, additional, Schneider, Alexandra, additional, Samoli, Evangelia, additional, Stafoggia, Massimo, additional, de’Donato, Francesca, additional, Rao, Shilpa, additional, Armstrong, Ben, additional, Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark, additional, Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria, additional, Gasparrini, Antonio, additional, Achilleos, Souzana, additional, Kyselý, Jan, additional, Indermitte, Ene, additional, Jaakkola, Jouni J.K., additional, Ryti, Niilo, additional, Pascal, Mathilde, additional, Katsouyanni, Klea, additional, Analitis, Antonis, additional, Goodman, Patrick, additional, Zeka, Ariana, additional, Michelozzi, Paola, additional, Houthuijs, Danny, additional, Ameling, Caroline, additional, das Neves Pereira da Silva, Susana, additional, Madureira, Joana, additional, Holobaca, Iulian-Horia, additional, Tobias, Aurelio, additional, Íñiguez, Carmen, additional, Forsberg, Bertil, additional, Åström, Christofer, additional, Ragettli, Martina S., additional, Surname, First name, additional, Zafeiratou, Sofia, additional, Vazquez Fernandez, Liliana, additional, Monteiro, Ana, additional, Rai, Masna, additional, Zhang, Siqi, additional, and Aunan, Kristin, additional

Published
2023
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41. Long-term trends in European extreme floods from 1950 to 2020

Author

Tilloy, Aloïs, primary, Paprotny, Dominik, additional, Mentaschi, Lorenzo, additional, Treu, Simon, additional, Lange, Stefan, additional, Bianchi, Alessandra, additional, Salamon, Peter, additional, Grimaldi, Stefania, additional, Gomes, Goncalo, additional, Mengel, Matthias, additional, and Feyen, Luc, additional

Published
2023
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44. Long-term economic impacts of coastal floods in Europe: a probabilistic analysis.

Author

Mongelli, Ignazio, Vousdoukas, Michalis, Feyen, Luc, Soria, Antonio, and Ciscar, Juan-Carlos

Subjects
ECONOMIC impact, DAMAGES (Law), ECONOMIC uncertainty, FLOODS, HOME repair, EARTHQUAKE hazard analysis, FLOOD damage
Abstract

In this article we quantify the long-term economic impacts of coastal flooding in Europe. In particular, how the direct coastal damages generate long-term economic losses that propagate and compound throughout the century. A set of probabilistic projections of inundation-related direct damages (to residential buildings, firms' physical assets and agriculture production) is used as an exogenous shock to a dynamic stochastic economic model. The article considers explicitly the uncertainty related to the economic agents' behaviour and other relevant macroeconomic assumptions, i.e., how would consumers finance the repairing of their homes, how long does it take for a firm to reconstruct, whether firms decide to build-back-better after the inundation and possibly compensate the losses with a productivity gain. Our findings indicate that the long-term impacts of coastal floods could be larger than the direct damages. Under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) the EU27 plus UK could lose every year between 0.25% and 0.91% of output by 2100, twice as much as the direct damages. The welfare losses present a strong regional variation, with the South (Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal and Spain), and United Kingdom (UK) plus Ireland regions showing the highest damages and a significant part of the population that could suffer significant welfare losses by the end of the century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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