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1. Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Author

Jae Young Lee, Ho Kim, Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong, Michelle L. Bell, Francesco Sera, Eric Lavigne, Rosana Abrutzky, Shilu Tong, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Haidong Kan, Samuel Osorio Garcia, Jan Kyselý, Aleš Urban, Hans Orru, Ene Indermitte, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Patrick G. Goodman, Ariana Zeka, Paola Michelozzi, Matteo Scortichini, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Magali Hurtado, Julio Cruz, Xerxes Seposo, Baltazar Nunes, João Paulo Teixeira, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Bertil Forsberg, Christofer Åström, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Martina S. Ragettli, Yue-Liang Leon Guo, Bing-Yu Chen, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Tran Ngoc Dang, Dung Do Van, Fetemeh Mayvaneh, Ala Overcenco, Shanshan Li, and Yuming Guo

Subjects
Environmental sciences, GE1-350
Abstract

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population. Keywords: Projection, Mortality, Climate change, Regional variation, Vulnerability

Published
2019
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2. Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability

Author

Francesco Sera, Haidong Kan, Jan Kyselý, Julio Cruz, Baltazar Nunes, Yuming Guo, Ariana Zeka, Patricia Matus Correa, Paola Michelozzi, Masahiro Hashizume, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Niilo R.I. Ryti, Hans Orru, Aurelio Tobias, Jae-Young Lee, Nicolas Valdes Ortega, Carmen Iñiguez, Aleš Urban, Mathilde Pascal, Paulo Hilário Nascimento Saldiva, Christofer Åström, Dung Do Van, Yasushi Honda, Ho Kim, Martina S. Ragettli, Matteo Scortichini, Bing-Yu Chen, Fetemeh Mayvaneh, Yueliang Leon Guo, Tran Ngoc Dang, Antonella Zanobetti, Shanshan Li, Rosana Abrutzky, Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, Michelle L. Bell, Shilu Tong, Ala Overcenco, Bertil Forsberg, Xerxes Seposo, Antonio Gasparrini, Patrick Goodman, Joel Schwartz, João Paulo Teixeira, Samuel David Osorio García, Eric Lavigne, Magali Hurtado, Ben Armstrong, Jouni J. K. Jaakkola, Ene Indermitte, Tobías, Aurelio, and Tobías, Aurelio [0000-0001-6428-6755]

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, vulnerability, Vulnerability, Hot temperature, projection, 010501 environmental sciences, Global Health, 01 natural sciences, Global Warming, Regional variation, Hot Temperature, Animal science, Elderly population, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Global health, Humans, Climate change, Projection, Mortality, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, lcsh:GE1-350, Excess mortality, Temperature, regional variation, Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology, Atmospheric temperature range, mortality, 3. Good health, Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi, climate change, Avaliação do Impacte em Saúde, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Determinantes da Saúde e da Doença, Forecasting
Abstract

An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010–2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (−0.92%p/°C) and Australia (−0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population. © 2019, This study was supported by the Global Research Lab (# K21004000001-10A0500-00710 ) through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT (Information and Communication Technologies), and Future Planning. JL was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea as NRF-SNSF Researcher Exchange Program ( NRF-2018K2A9A1A06086694 ). AG was supported by Medical Research Council UK (Grant ID: MR/M022625/1 ) and Natural Environment Research Council UK (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1 ). JK and AU were supported by the Czech Science Foundation , project no. 18-22125S . HO and EI were supported by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (Grant no IUT34-17 ). JJKJ and NRIR were supported by the Research Council for Health, Academy of Finland (Grant no 266314 and 310372 ). MH and YH were supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency . AT was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Invitational Fellowships for Research in Japan ( S18149 ). Appendix A

Published
2019

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