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1. Unraveling higher-order dynamics in collaboration networks

Author

Abella, David, Birello, Piero, Di Gaetano, Leonardo, Ghivarello, Sara, Sabhahit, Narayan G., Sirocchi, Christel, and Fernández-Gracia, Juan

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society
Abstract

The interactions between individuals play a pivotal role in shaping the structure and dynamics of social systems. Complex network models have proven invaluable in uncovering the underlying mechanisms that govern the formation and evolution of these systems. However, conventional network representations primarily emphasize pairwise interactions, represented as edges in the network. In reality, many social interactions occur within groups rather than individual pairs. To capture this crucial aspect, higher-order network representations come into play, especially to describe those complex systems that are inherently composed of agents interacting with group dynamics. Despite recent research advancements in exploring temporal higher-order networks in various systems, our understanding of collaboration networks remains limited. Specifically, there is a lack of knowledge regarding the patterns of group interactions within scientific collaborations. How do groups form and evolve in this context? In this study, we aim to delve into the temporal properties of groups within collaboration networks. Our investigation focuses on uncovering the mechanisms that govern the global, group, and individual-level dynamics, shedding light on how individuals collaborate and how groups form and disband over time. By studying these temporal patterns, we take a significant stride forward in comprehending the intricate dynamics of higher-order interactions within human collaboration systems.

Published
2023

2. Overhauling Ocean Spatial Planning to Improve Marine Megafauna Conservation

Author

Sequeira, Ana Micaela Martins, Hays, Graeme Clive, Sims, David W, Eguíluz, Víctor M, Rodríguez, Jorge P, Heupel, Michelle R, Harcourt, Rob, Calich, Hannah, Queiroz, Nuno, Costa, Daniel Paul, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Ferreira, Luciana C, Goldsworthy, Simon David, Hindell, Mark A, Lea, Mary-Anne, Meekan, Mark G, Pagano, Anthony M, Shaffer, Scott A, Reisser, Julia, Thums, Michele, Weise, Michael, and Duarte, Carlos M

Subjects
Life on Land, Life Below Water, Oceanography, Ecology
Published
2023

3. Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

Author

Bates, Amanda E, Primack, Richard B, Biggar, Brandy S, Bird, Tomas J, Clinton, Mary E, Command, Rylan J, Richards, Cerren, Shellard, Marc, Geraldi, Nathan R, Vergara, Valeria, Acevedo-Charry, Orlando, Colón-Piñeiro, Zuania, Ocampo, David, Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia, Sánchez-Clavijo, Lina M, Adamescu, Cristian M, Cheval, Sorin, Racoviceanu, Tudor, Adams, Matthew D, Kalisa, Egide, Kuuire, Vincent Z, Aditya, Vikram, Anderwald, Pia, Wiesmann, Samuel, Wipf, Sonja, Badihi, Gal, Henderson, Matthew G, Loetscher, Hanspeter, Baerenfaller, Katja, Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro, Bulleri, Fabio, Bertocci, Iacopo, Maggi, Elena, Rindi, Luca, Ravaglioli, Chiara, Boerder, Kristina, Bonnel, Julien, Mathias, Delphine, Archambault, Philippe, Chauvaud, Laurent, Braun, Camrin D, Thorrold, Simon R, Brownscombe, Jacob W, Midwood, Jonathan D, Boston, Christine M, Brooks, Jill L, Cooke, Steven J, China, Victor, Roll, Uri, Belmaker, Jonathan, Zvuloni, Assaf, Coll, Marta, Ortega, Miquel, Connors, Brendan, Lacko, Lisa, Jayathilake, Dinusha RM, Costello, Mark J, Crimmins, Theresa M, Barnett, LoriAnne, Denny, Ellen G, Gerst, Katharine L, Marsh, RL, Posthumus, Erin E, Rodriguez, Reilly, Rosemartin, Alyssa, Schaffer, Sara N, Switzer, Jeff R, Wong, Kevin, Cunningham, Susan J, Sumasgutner, Petra, Amar, Arjun, Thomson, Robert L, Stofberg, Miqkayla, Hofmeyr, Sally, Suri, Jessleena, Stuart-Smith, Rick D, Day, Paul B, Edgar, Graham J, Cooper, Antonia T, De Leo, Fabio Cabrera, Garner, Grant, Brisay, Paulson G Des, Schrimpf, Michael B, Koper, Nicola, Diamond, Michael S, Dwyer, Ross G, Baker, Cameron J, Franklin, Craig E, Efrat, Ron, Berger-Tal, Oded, Hatzofe, Ohad, Eguíluz, Víctor M, Rodríguez, Jorge P, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Elustondo, David, Calatayud, Vicent, English, Philina A, Archer, Stephanie K, Dudas, Sarah E, and Haggarty, Dana R

Subjects
Life on Land, Pandemic, Biodiversity, Restoration, Global monitoring, Environmental Sciences, Biological Sciences, Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences, Ecology
Abstract

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus, initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness.

Published
2021

4. Extinction-induced community reorganization in bipartite networks

Author

Sheykhali, Somaye, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Traveset, Anna, and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society, Nonlinear Sciences - Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems, Physics - Applied Physics
Abstract

We study how the community structure of bipartite mutualistic networks changes in a dynamic context. First, we consider a real mutualistic network and introduce extinction events according to several scenarios. We model extinctions as node or interaction removals. For node removal, we consider random, directed and sequential extinctions; for interaction removal, we consider random extinctions. The bipartite network reorganizes showing an increase of the effective modularity and a fast decrease of the persistence of the species in the original communities with increasing number of extinction events. Second, we compare extinctions in a real mutualistic network with the growth of a bipartite network model. The modularity reaches a stationary value and nodes remain in the same community after joining the network. Our results show that perturbations and disruptive events affect the connectivity pattern of mutualistic networks at the mesoscale level. The increase of the effective modularity observed in some scenarios could provide some protection to the remaining ecosystem.

Published
2019
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5. Election Forensics: quantitative methods for electoral fraud detection

Author

Lacasa, Lucas and Fernández-Gracia, Juan

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society
Abstract

The last decade has witnessed an explosion on the computational power and a parallel increase of the access to large sets of data (the so called Big Data paradigm) which is enabling to develop brand new quantitative strategies underpinning description, understanding and control of complex scenarios. One interesting area of application concerns fraud detection from online data, and more particularly extracting meaningful information from massive digital fingerprints of electoral activity to detect, a posteriori, evidence of fraudulent behavior. In this short article we discuss a few quantitative methodologies that have emerged in recent years on this respect, which altogether form the nascent interdisciplinary field of election forensics., Comment: Accepted for publication in Forensic Science International

Published
2018
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6. Big data analyses reveal patterns and drivers of the movements of southern elephant seals

Author

Rodríguez, Jorge P., Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Thums, Michele, Hindell, Mark A., Sequeira, Ana M. M., Meekan, Mark G., Costa, Daniel P., Guinet, Christophe, Harcourt, Robert G., McMahon, Clive R., Muelbert, Monica, Duarte, Carlos M., and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Quantitative Methods, Physics - Biological Physics, Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
Abstract

The growing number of large databases of animal tracking provides an opportunity for analyses of movement patterns at the scales of populations and even species. We used analytical approaches, developed to cope with big data, that require no a priori assumptions about the behaviour of the target agents, to analyse a pooled tracking dataset of 272 elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in the Southern Ocean, that was comprised of >500,000 location estimates collected over more than a decade. Our analyses showed that the displacements of these seals were described by a truncated power law distribution across several spatial and temporal scales, with a clear signature of directed movement. This pattern was evident when analysing the aggregated tracks despite a wide diversity of individual trajectories. We also identified marine provinces that described the migratory and foraging habitats of these seals. Our analysis provides evidence for the presence of intrinsic drivers of movement, such as memory, that cannot be detected using common models of movement behaviour. These results highlight the potential for big data techniques to provide new insights into movement behaviour when applied to large datasets of animal tracking., Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, 6 supplementary figures

Published
2018
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7. Flexible model of network embedding

Author

Fernández-Gracia, Juan and Onnela, Jukka-Pekka

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks
Abstract

There has lately been increased interest in describing complex systems not merely as single networks but rather as collections of networks that are coupled to one another. We introduce an analytically tractable model that enables one to connect two layers in a multilayer network by controlling the locality of coupling. In particular we introduce a tractable model for embedding one network (A) into another (B), focusing on the case where network A has many more nodes than network B. In our model, nodes in network A are assigned, or embedded, to the nodes in network B using an assignment rule where the extent of node localization is controlled by a single parameter. We start by mapping an unassigned `source' node in network A to a randomly chosen `target' node in network B. We then assign the neighbors of the source node to the neighborhood of the target node using a random walk starting at the target node and with a per-step stopping probability $q$. By varying the parameter $q$, we are able to produce a range of embeddings from local ($q = 1$) to global ($q \to 0$). The simplicity of the model allows us to calculate key quantities, making it a useful starting point for more realistic models.

Published
2018

8. From continuous to discontinuous transitions in social diffusion

Author

Tuzón, Paula, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society
Abstract

Models of social diffusion reflect processes of how new products, ideas or behaviors are adopted in a population. These models typically lead to a continuous or a discontinuous phase transition of the number of adopters as a function of a control parameter. We explore a simple model of social adoption where the agents can be in two states, either adopters or non-adopters, and can switch between these two states interacting with other agents through a network. The probability of an agent to switch from non-adopter to adopter depends on the number of adopters in her network neighborhood, the adoption threshold $T$ and the adoption coefficient $a$, two parameters defining a Hill function. In contrast, the transition from adopter to non-adopter is spontaneous at a certain rate $\mu$. In a mean-field approach, we derive the governing ordinary differential equations and show that the nature of the transition between the global non-adoption and global adoption regimes depends mostly on the balance between the probability to adopt with one and two adopters. The transition changes from continuous, via a transcritical bifurcation, to discontinuous, via a combination of a saddle-node and a transcritical bifurcation, through a supercritical pitchfork bifurcation. We characterize the full parameter space. Finally, we compare our analytical results with Montecarlo simulations on annealed and quenched degree regular networks, showing a better agreement for the annealed case. Our results show how a simple model is able to capture two seemingly very different types of transitions, i.e., continuous and discontinuous and thus unifies underlying dynamics for different systems. Furthermore the form of the adoption probability used here is based on empirical measurements., Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures

Published
2018
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9. Overhauling Ocean Spatial Planning to Improve Marine Megafauna Conservation

Author

Sequeira, Ana Micaela Martins, Hays, Graeme Clive, Sims, David W, Eguíluz, Víctor M, Rodríguez, Jorge P, Heupel, Michelle R, Harcourt, Rob, Calich, Hannah, Queiroz, Nuno, Costa, Daniel Paul, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Ferreira, Luciana C, Goldsworthy, Simon David, Hindell, Mark A, Lea, Mary-Anne, Meekan, Mark G, Pagano, Anthony M, Shaffer, Scott A, Reisser, Julia, Thums, Michele, Weise, Michael, and Duarte, Carlos M

Subjects
Oceanography, Ecology
Published
2019

12. Joint effect of ageing and multilayer structure prevents ordering in the voter model

Author

Artime, Oriol, Fernandez-Gracia, Juan, Ramasco, Jose J., and Miguel, Maxi San

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society
Abstract

The voter model rules are simple, with agents copying the state of a random neighbor, but they lead to non-trivial dynamics. Besides opinion processes, the model has also applications for catalysis and species competition. Inspired by the temporal inhomogeneities found in human interactions, one can introduce ageing in the agents: the probability to update decreases with the time elapsed since the last change. This modified dynamics induces an approach to consensus via coarsening in complex networks. Additionally, multilayer networks produce profound changes in the dynamics of models. In this work, we investigate how a multilayer structure affects the dynamics of an ageing voter model. The system is studied as a function of the fraction of nodes sharing states across layers (multiplexity parameter q ). We find that the dynamics of the system suffers a notable change at an intermediate value q*. Above it, the voter model always orders to an absorbing configuration. While, below, a fraction of the realizations falls into dynamical traps associated to a spontaneous symmetry breaking in which the majority opinion in the different layers takes opposite signs and that due to the ageing indefinitely delay the arrival at the absorbing state., Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures

Published
2017
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14. Bipartisanship breakdown, functional networks and forensic analysis in Spanish 2015 and 2016 national elections

Author

Fernández-Gracia, Juan and Lacasa, Lucas

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society
Abstract

In this paper we present a social network and forensic analysis of the vote counts of Spanish national elections that took place in December 2015 and their sequel in June 2016. Vote counts are extracted at the level of municipalities, yielding an unusually high resolution dataset with over 8000 samples. We initially consider the phenomenon of Bipartisanship breakdown by analysing spatial distributions of several Bipartisanship indices. We find that such breakdown is more prominent close to cosmopolite and largely populated areas and less important in rural areas where Bipartisanship still prevails, and its evolution mildly consolidates in the 2016 round, with some evidence of Bipartisanship reinforcement which we hypothesize to be due to psychological mechanisms of risk aversion. On a third step we explore to which extent vote data are faithful by applying forensic techniques to vote statistics. We first explore the conformance of first digit distributions to Benford's law for each of the main political parties. The results and interpretations are mixed and vary across different levels of aggregation, finding a general good quantitative agreement at the national scale for both municipalities and precincts but finding systematic nonconformance at the level of individual precincts. As a complementary metric, we further explore the co-occurring statistics of voteshare and turnout, finding a mild tendency in the clusters of the conservative party to smear out towards the area of high turnout and voteshare, what has been previously interpreted as a possible sign of incremental fraud. In every case results are qualitatively similar between 2015 and 2016 elections., Comment: 23 pages, 21 figures, accepted for publication in Complexity

Published
2016

15. Big data analyses reveal patterns and drivers of the movements of southern elephant seals.

Author

Rodríguez, Jorge P, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Thums, Michele, Hindell, Mark A, Sequeira, Ana MM, Meekan, Mark G, Costa, Daniel P, Guinet, Christophe, Harcourt, Robert G, McMahon, Clive R, Muelbert, Monica, Duarte, Carlos M, and Eguíluz, Víctor M

Subjects
Animals, Seals, Earless, Animal Migration, Feeding Behavior, Ecosystem, Locomotion, Data Mining, Spatial Analysis, Seals, Earless, Biochemistry and Cell Biology, Other Physical Sciences
Abstract

The growing number of large databases of animal tracking provides an opportunity for analyses of movement patterns at the scales of populations and even species. We used analytical approaches, developed to cope with "big data", that require no 'a priori' assumptions about the behaviour of the target agents, to analyse a pooled tracking dataset of 272 elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) in the Southern Ocean, that was comprised of >500,000 location estimates collected over more than a decade. Our analyses showed that the displacements of these seals were described by a truncated power law distribution across several spatial and temporal scales, with a clear signature of directed movement. This pattern was evident when analysing the aggregated tracks despite a wide diversity of individual trajectories. We also identified marine provinces that described the migratory and foraging habitats of these seals. Our analysis provides evidence for the presence of intrinsic drivers of movement, such as memory, that cannot be detected using common models of movement behaviour. These results highlight the potential for "big data" techniques to provide new insights into movement behaviour when applied to large datasets of animal tracking.

Published
2017

16. Persistence in voting behavior: stronghold dynamics in elections

Author

Pérez, Toni, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Ramasco, Jose J., and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks
Abstract

Influence among individuals is at the core of collective social phenomena such as the dissemination of ideas, beliefs or behaviors, social learning and the diffusion of innovations. Different mechanisms have been proposed to implement inter-agent influence in social models from the voter model, to majority rules, to the Granoveter model. Here we advance in this direction by confronting the recently introduced Social Influence and Recurrent Mobility (SIRM) model, that reproduces generic features of vote-shares at different geographical levels, with data in the US presidential elections. Our approach incorporates spatial and population diversity as inputs for the opinion dynamics while individuals' mobility provides a proxy for social context, and peer imitation accounts for social influence. The model captures the observed stationary background fluctuations in the vote-shares across counties. We study the so-called political strongholds, i.e., locations where the votes-shares for a party are systematically higher than average. A quantitative definition of a stronghold by means of persistence in time of fluctuations in the voting spatial distribution is introduced, and results from the US Presidential Elections during the period 1980-2012 are analyzed within this framework. We compare electoral results with simulations obtained with the SIRM model finding a good agreement both in terms of the number and the location of strongholds. The strongholds duration is also systematically characterized in the SIRM model. The results compare well with the electoral results data revealing an exponential decay in the persistence of the strongholds with time., Comment: Lecture Notes in Computer Science: Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling, and Prediction (2015)

Published
2015
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17. Is the Voter Model a model for voters?

Author

Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Suchecki, Krzysztof, Ramasco, José J., Miguel, Maxi San, and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks
Abstract

The voter model has been studied extensively as a paradigmatic opinion dynamics' model. However, its ability for modeling real opinion dynamics has not been addressed. We introduce a noisy voter model (accounting for social influence) with agents' recurrent mobility (as a proxy for social context), where the spatial and population diversity are taken as inputs to the model. We show that the dynamics can be described as a noisy diffusive process that contains the proper anysotropic coupling topology given by population and mobility heterogeneity. The model captures statistical features of the US presidential elections as the stationary vote-share fluctuations across counties, and the long-range spatial correlations that decay logarithmically with the distance. Furthermore, it recovers the behavior of these properties when a real-space renormalization is performed by coarse-graining the geographical scale from county level through congressional districts and up to states. Finally, we analyze the role of the mobility range and the randomness in decision making which are consistent with the empirical observations., Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures

Published
2013
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18. Timing interactions in social simulations: The voter model

Author

Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Eguíluz, Víctor M., and Miguel, Maxi San

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society
Abstract

The recent availability of huge high resolution datasets on human activities has revealed the heavy-tailed nature of the interevent time distributions. In social simulations of interacting agents the standard approach has been to use Poisson processes to update the state of the agents, which gives rise to very homogeneous activity patterns with a well defined characteristic interevent time. As a paradigmatic opinion model we investigate the voter model and review the standard update rules and propose two new update rules which are able to account for heterogeneous activity patterns. For the new update rules each node gets updated with a probability that depends on the time since the last event of the node, where an event can be an update attempt (exogenous update) or a change of state (endogenous update). We find that both update rules can give rise to power law interevent time distributions, although the endogenous one more robustly. Apart from that for the exogenous update rule and the standard update rules the voter model does not reach consensus in the infinite size limit, while for the endogenous update there exist a coarsening process that drives the system toward consensus configurations., Comment: Book Chapter, 23 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables

Published
2013
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19. Update rules and interevent time distributions: Slow ordering vs. no ordering in the Voter Model

Author

Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Eguíluz, V. M., and Miguel, M. San

Subjects
Physics - Physics and Society, Condensed Matter - Statistical Mechanics
Abstract

We introduce a general methodology of update rules accounting for arbitrary interevent time distributions in simulations of interacting agents. In particular we consider update rules that depend on the state of the agent, so that the update becomes part of the dynamical model. As an illustration we consider the voter model in fully-connected, random and scale free networks with an update probability inversely proportional to the persistence, that is, the time since the last event. We find that in the thermodynamic limit, at variance with standard updates, the system orders slowly. The approach to the absorbing state is characterized by a power law decay of the density of interfaces, observing that the mean time to reach the absorbing state might be not well defined., Comment: 5pages, 4 figures

Published
2011
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20. No-hair theorems for black holes in the Abelian Higgs model

Author

Fernandez-Gracia, Juan and Fiol, Bartomeu

Subjects
High Energy Physics - Theory
Abstract

Motivated by the study of holographic superconductors, we generalize no-hair theorems for minimally coupled scalar fields charged under an Abelian gauge field, in arbitrary dimensions and with arbitrary horizon topology. We first present a straightforward generalization of no-hair theorems for neutral scalar hair. We then consider the existence of extremal black holes with scalar hair, and in the case of horizons with zero or positive curvature, provide a bound on the mass and charge of the scalar field that are necessary for the scalar hair to develop., Comment: 12 pages. v2: expanded abstract, added references

Published
2009
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21. Spread of Pathogens in the Patient Transfer Network of US Hospitals

Author

Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Onnela, Jukka-Pekka, Barnett, Michael L., Eguíluz, Víctor M., Christakis, Nicholas A., Hutchison, David, Series editor, Kanade, Takeo, Series editor, Kittler, Josef, Series editor, Kleinberg, Jon M., Series editor, Mattern, Friedemann, Series editor, Mitchell, John C., Series editor, Naor, Moni, Series editor, Pandu Rangan, C., Series editor, Steffen, Bernhard, Series editor, Terzopoulos, Demetri, Series editor, Tygar, Doug, Series editor, Weikum, Gerhard, Series editor, Lee, Dongwon, editor, Lin, Yu-Ru, editor, Osgood, Nathaniel, editor, and Thomson, Robert, editor

Published
2017
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26. Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia

Author

Belvis-Costes, Francesc Xavier, Aleta Casas, Alberto, Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro, Pericas, Juan M, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Rodriguez, Jorge P, Institut Català de la Salut, [Belvis F] Research Group on Health Inequalities, Environment, and Employment Conditions (GREDS EMCONET), Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain. Johns Hopkins University-Universitat Pompeu Fabra Public Policy Center (JHU-UPF PPC), Barcelona, Spain. [Aleta A] Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain. [Padilla-Pozo Á] Research Group on Health Inequalities, Environment, and Employment Conditions (GREDS EMCONET), Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain. Johns Hopkins University-Universitat Pompeu Fabra Public Policy Center (JHU-UPF PPC), Barcelona, Spain. Department of Sociology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA. [Pericàs JM] Research Group on Health Inequalities, Environment, and Employment Conditions (GREDS EMCONET), Department of Political and Social Sciences, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona, Spain. Johns Hopkins University-Universitat Pompeu Fabra Public Policy Center (JHU-UPF PPC), Barcelona, Spain. Unitat d’Hepatologia, Servei de Medicina Interna, Vall d’Hebron Hospital Universitari, Barcelona, Spain. Vall d’Hebron Institut de Recerca (VHIR), Barcelona, Spain. CIBERehd, Barcelona, Spain. Infectious Disease Department, Hospital Clínic, Barcelona, Spain. [Fernández-Gracia J] Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar Y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Palma de Mallorca, Spain. [Rodríguez JP] Instituto de Física Interdisciplinar Y Sistemas Complejos IFISC (CSIC-UIB), Palma de Mallorca, Spain. Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB), Esporles, Spain, and Vall d'Hebron Barcelona Hospital Campus

Subjects
COVID-19 (Malaltia) - Epidemiologia - Catalunya, Catalonia, Other subheadings::Other subheadings::/epidemiology [Other subheadings], Cataluña, virosis::infecciones por virus ARN::infecciones por Nidovirales::infecciones por Coronaviridae::infecciones por Coronavirus [ENFERMEDADES], Otros calificadores::Otros calificadores::/epidemiología [Otros calificadores], epidemiología y bioestadística::epidemiología::usos de la epidemiología::monitorización epidemiológica::brotes de enfermedades [SALUD PÚBLICA], Virus Diseases::RNA Virus Infections::Nidovirales Infections::Coronaviridae Infections::Coronavirus Infections [DISEASES], Epidemiology and Biostatistics::Epidemiology::Uses of Epidemiology::Epidemiological Monitoring::Disease Outbreaks [PUBLIC HEALTH]
Abstract

Epidemiology; Statistics Epidemiología; Estadísticas Epidemiologia; Estadístiques This research studies the evolution of COVID-19 crude incident rates, effective reproduction number R(t) and their relationship with incidence spatial autocorrelation patterns in the 19 months following the disease outbreak in Catalonia (Spain). A cross-sectional ecological panel design based on n = 371 health-care geographical units is used. Five general outbreaks are described, systematically preceded by generalized values of R(t) > 1 in the two previous weeks. No clear regularities concerning possible initial focus appear when comparing waves. As for autocorrelation, we identify a wave’s baseline pattern in which global Moran’s I increases rapidly in the first weeks of the outbreak to descend later. However, some waves significantly depart from the baseline. In the simulations, both baseline pattern and departures can be reproduced when measures aimed at reducing mobility and virus transmissibility are introduced. Spatial autocorrelation is inherently contingent on the outbreak phase and is also substantially modified by external interventions affecting human behavior. All the authors acknowledge funding from the Social Observatory of the “la Caixa” Foundation as part of the project LCF/PR/SR20/52550011. Partial funding was also received from the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (PID2020-117029RB-I00). Joan Benach gratefully acknowledges the financial support by ICREA under the ICREA Academia programme. J. Fernández-Gracia was supported by Direcció General de Política Universitària i Recerca from the government of the Balearic Islands through the postdoctoral program Vicenç Mut. J. P. Rodríguez is supported by Juan de la Cierva Formacion program (Ref. FJC2019-040622-I) funded by MCIN/AEI/ https://doi.org/10.13039/501100011033.

Published
2023

27. Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia

Author

Fundación la Caixa, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Govern de les Illes Balears, Belvis, Francesc, Aleta, Alberto, Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro, Pericàs, Juan-M, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Rodríguez, Jorge P., Eguíluz, Víctor M., De Santana, Charles Novaes, Julià, Mireia, Benach, Joan, Fundación la Caixa, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Govern de les Illes Balears, Belvis, Francesc, Aleta, Alberto, Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro, Pericàs, Juan-M, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Rodríguez, Jorge P., Eguíluz, Víctor M., De Santana, Charles Novaes, Julià, Mireia, and Benach, Joan

Abstract

This research studies the evolution of COVID-19 crude incident rates, effective reproduction number R(t) and their relationship with incidence spatial autocorrelation patterns in the 19 months following the disease outbreak in Catalonia (Spain). A cross-sectional ecological panel design based on n = 371 health-care geographical units is used. Five general outbreaks are described, systematically preceded by generalized values of R(t) > 1 in the two previous weeks. No clear regularities concerning possible initial focus appear when comparing waves. As for autocorrelation, we identify a wave's baseline pattern in which global Moran's I increases rapidly in the first weeks of the outbreak to descend later. However, some waves significantly depart from the baseline. In the simulations, both baseline pattern and departures can be reproduced when measures aimed at reducing mobility and virus transmissibility are introduced. Spatial autocorrelation is inherently contingent on the outbreak phase and is also substantially modified by external interventions affecting human behavior.

Published
2023

30. Key epidemiological indicators and spatial autocorrelation patterns across five waves of COVID-19 in Catalonia.

Author

Belvis, Francesc, Aleta, Alberto, Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro, Pericàs, Juan-M., Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Rodríguez, Jorge P., Eguíluz, Víctor M., De Santana, Charles Novaes, Julià, Mireia, Benach, Joan, Benach, Núria, Cash-Gibson, Lucinda, Delclós, Carles, Gutiérrez-Zamora, Mariana, Martínez-Herrera, Eliana, Palmer, John, and Rojas-Gualdrón, Diego-F.

Subjects
COVID-19 pandemic, DISEASE outbreaks, HUMAN behavior, COVID-19
Abstract

This research studies the evolution of COVID-19 crude incident rates, effective reproduction number R(t) and their relationship with incidence spatial autocorrelation patterns in the 19 months following the disease outbreak in Catalonia (Spain). A cross-sectional ecological panel design based on n = 371 health-care geographical units is used. Five general outbreaks are described, systematically preceded by generalized values of R(t) > 1 in the two previous weeks. No clear regularities concerning possible initial focus appear when comparing waves. As for autocorrelation, we identify a wave's baseline pattern in which global Moran's I increases rapidly in the first weeks of the outbreak to descend later. However, some waves significantly depart from the baseline. In the simulations, both baseline pattern and departures can be reproduced when measures aimed at reducing mobility and virus transmissibility are introduced. Spatial autocorrelation is inherently contingent on the outbreak phase and is also substantially modified by external interventions affecting human behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
Full Text
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31. Inequalities in COVID-19 inequalities research: Who had the capacity to respond?

Author

Benach, Joan, Cash-Gibson, Lucinda, 1984, Rojas-Gualdrón, Diego F., Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Eguíluz, Víctor M., COVID-SHINE group, Fundación 'la Caixa', Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Institución Catalana de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados, and Govern de les Illes Balears

Subjects
Multidisciplinary, Socioeconomic Factors, Health care policy, Bibliometrics, Behavioral and social aspects of health, Global health, COVID-19, Humans, Network analysis, COVID 19, Pandemics, Research assessment
Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has been testing countries' capacities and scientific preparedness to actively respond and collaborate on a common global threat. It has also heightened awareness of the urgent need to empirically describe and analyze health inequalities to be able to act effectively. In turn, this raises several important questions that need answering: What is known about the rapidly emerging COVID-19 inequalities research field? Which countries and world regions have been able to rapidly produce research on this topic? What research patterns and trends have emerged, and how to these compared to the (pre-COVID-19) global health inequalities research field? Which countries have been scientifically collaborating on this important topic? Where are the scientific knowledge gaps, and indirectly where might research capacities need to be strengthened? In order to answer these queries, we analyzed the global scientific production (2020-2021) on COVID-19 associated inequalities by conducting bibliometric and network analyses using the Scopus database. Specifically, we analyzed the volume of scientific production per country (via author affiliations), its distribution by country income groups and world regions, as well as the inter-country collaborations within this production. Our results indicate that the COVID-19 inequalities research field has been highly collaborative; however, a number of significant inequitable research practices exist. When compared to the (pre-COVID-19) global health inequalities research field, similar inequalities were identified, however, several new dynamics and partnerships have also emerged that warrant further in-depth exploration. To ensure preparedness for future crises, and effective strategies to tackle growing social inequalities in health, investment in global health inequalities research capacities must be a priority for all., This study is was funded by “la Caixa” Foundation under the project code SR20-00386, and also by the MCyE Project PID2020-117029RB-I00. Joan Benach gratefully acknowledges the financial support by ICREA under the ICREA Academia programme. JFG acknowledges the supported of Direcció General de Política Universitària i Recerca from the government of the Balearic Islands through the postdoctoral program Vicenç Mut.

Published
2022

32. Overhauling Ocean Spatial Planning to Improve Marine Megafauna Conservation

Author

Sequeira, Ana Micaela Martins, Sequeira, Ana Micaela Martins, Hays, Graeme Clive, Sims, David W, Eguíluz, Víctor M, Rodríguez, Jorge P, Heupel, Michelle R, Harcourt, Rob, Calich, Hannah, Queiroz, Nuno, Costa, Daniel Paul, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Ferreira, Luciana C, Goldsworthy, Simon David, Hindell, Mark A, Lea, Mary-Anne, Meekan, Mark G, Pagano, Anthony M, Shaffer, Scott A, Reisser, Julia, Thums, Michele, Weise, Michael, Duarte, Carlos M, Sequeira, Ana Micaela Martins, Sequeira, Ana Micaela Martins, Hays, Graeme Clive, Sims, David W, Eguíluz, Víctor M, Rodríguez, Jorge P, Heupel, Michelle R, Harcourt, Rob, Calich, Hannah, Queiroz, Nuno, Costa, Daniel Paul, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Ferreira, Luciana C, Goldsworthy, Simon David, Hindell, Mark A, Lea, Mary-Anne, Meekan, Mark G, Pagano, Anthony M, Shaffer, Scott A, Reisser, Julia, Thums, Michele, Weise, Michael, and Duarte, Carlos M

Published
2022

34. Inequalities in COVID-19 inequalities research: Who had the capacity to respond?

Author

Fundación la Caixa, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Institución Catalana de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados, Govern de les Illes Balears, Benach, Joan, Cash-Gibson, Lucinda, Rojas-Gualdrón, Diego F., Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Eguíluz, Víctor M., Fundación la Caixa, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Institución Catalana de Investigación y Estudios Avanzados, Govern de les Illes Balears, Benach, Joan, Cash-Gibson, Lucinda, Rojas-Gualdrón, Diego F., Padilla-Pozo, Álvaro, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has been testing countries' capacities and scientific preparedness to actively respond and collaborate on a common global threat. It has also heightened awareness of the urgent need to empirically describe and analyze health inequalities to be able to act effectively. In turn, this raises several important questions that need answering: What is known about the rapidly emerging COVID-19 inequalities research field? Which countries and world regions have been able to rapidly produce research on this topic? What research patterns and trends have emerged, and how to these compared to the (pre-COVID-19) global health inequalities research field? Which countries have been scientifically collaborating on this important topic? Where are the scientific knowledge gaps, and indirectly where might research capacities need to be strengthened? In order to answer these queries, we analyzed the global scientific production (2020-2021) on COVID-19 associated inequalities by conducting bibliometric and network analyses using the Scopus database. Specifically, we analyzed the volume of scientific production per country (via author affiliations), its distribution by country income groups and world regions, as well as the inter-country collaborations within this production. Our results indicate that the COVID-19 inequalities research field has been highly collaborative; however, a number of significant inequitable research practices exist. When compared to the (pre-COVID-19) global health inequalities research field, similar inequalities were identified, however, several new dynamics and partnerships have also emerged that warrant further in-depth exploration. To ensure preparedness for future crises, and effective strategies to tackle growing social inequalities in health, investment in global health inequalities research capacities must be a priority for all.

Published
2022

35. The study of aggression and affiliation motifs in bottlenose dolphins' social networks

Author

Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte (España), Govern de les Illes Balears, Pérez-Manrique, Ana, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Gomila, Antoni, Ramasco, José J., Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte (España), Govern de les Illes Balears, Pérez-Manrique, Ana, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Gomila, Antoni, and Ramasco, José J.

Abstract

Networks in biology have provided a powerful tool to describe and study very complex biological processes and systems such as animal societies. Social network analysis allows us to assess different processes occurring in animal groups. In the current study, we use this approach to investigate how conflict dynamics and post-conflict interactions shape the social networks of groups of captive bottlenose dolphins. We first examined temporal changes and aggression-affiliation motifs in the observed dolphins' network structure. Using the results of the previous analysis, we built two models that simulate the dynamics of aggression and affiliation in a small dolphin group. The first model is based only on the observed statistics of interactions, whereas the second includes post conflict memory effects as well. We found that the resulting social networks and their most common motifs matched the association patterns observed in wild and captive dolphins. Furthermore, the model with memory was able to capture the observed dynamics of this group of dolphins. Thus, our models suggest the presence and influence of post-conflict behaviors on the structure of captive dolphins' social networks. Therefore, the network approach reveals as an effective method to define animal social networks and study animal sociality. Finally, this approach can have important applications in the management of animal populations in captive settings.

Published
2022

36. Rapid evolution of SARS-CoV-2 challenges human defenses

Author

King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, La Caixa, Govern de les Illes Balears, Duarte, Carlos M., Ketcheson, David, Eguíluz, Víctor M., Agustí, Susana, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Jamil, Tahira, Laiolo, Elisa, Gojobori, Takashi, Alam, Intikhab, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, La Caixa, Govern de les Illes Balears, Duarte, Carlos M., Ketcheson, David, Eguíluz, Víctor M., Agustí, Susana, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Jamil, Tahira, Laiolo, Elisa, Gojobori, Takashi, and Alam, Intikhab

Abstract

The race between pathogens and their hosts is a major evolutionary driver, where both reshuffle their genomes to overcome and reorganize the defenses for infection, respectively. Evolutionary theory helps formulate predictions on the future evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2, which can be monitored through unprecedented real-time tracking of SARS-CoV-2 population genomics at the global scale. Here we quantify the accelerating evolution of SARS-CoV-2 by tracking the SARS-CoV-2 mutation globally, with a focus on the Receptor Binding Domain (RBD) of the spike protein determining infection success. We estimate that the > 820 million people that had been infected by October 5, 2021, produced up to 1021 copies of the virus, with 12 new effective RBD variants appearing, on average, daily. Doubling of the number of RBD variants every 89 days, followed by selection of the most infective variants challenges our defenses and calls for a shift to anticipatory, rather than reactive tactics involving collaborative global sequencing and vaccination.

Published
2022

37. Fishing at the High Seas: the Global Network Connecting Ports to Fishing Areas

Author

Rodríguez-García, Jorge Pablo, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Duarte, Carlos M., Irigoien, Xabier, and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Abstract

Trabajo presentado en la Conference on Complex Systems (CCS), celebrada en Lyon del 25 al 29 de octubre de 2021., Human activities and natural resources are coupled through biological, economical, political and social aspects. In particular, fishing is a complex activity due to the interaction of multiple factors. For example, there is an interplay between the specific interests of extracting industries and those of nations, having the right to regulate fishing within their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). The problem of sustainable fishing becomes harder at the Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (high seas), where the fishing stocks are shared resources and the regulation is weaker. We analyse one year of fishing vessels’ trajectories, obtained from the Automatic Identification System (AIS), to understand how fishing is distributed at the high seas. We find an accumulation of fishing effort at the external borders of the most productive EEZs, hindering the sustainable fishing within those waters, such that 47% of the fishing effort in the high seas concentrates in a 200 km strip adjacent to the EEZ borders. To quantify this observation, we obtain 14 marine provinces from the trajectories of the vessels and link these provinces to the ports that give support to the vessels fishing on them. This leads to a global network where typically the ports are specialized on one or two provinces, and those located in low and middle-income countries have a key role, becoming potential candidates to receive rewards for control and catch verification tasks.

Published
2021

39. Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

Author

Bates, Amanda E., primary, Primack, Richard B., additional, Biggar, Brandy S., additional, Bird, Tomas J., additional, Clinton, Mary E., additional, Command, Rylan J., additional, Richards, Cerren, additional, Shellard, Marc, additional, Geraldi, Nathan R., additional, Vergara, Valeria, additional, Acevedo-Charry, Orlando, additional, Colón-Piñeiro, Zuania, additional, Ocampo, David, additional, Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia, additional, Sánchez-Clavijo, Lina M., additional, Adamescu, Cristian M., additional, Cheval, Sorin, additional, Racoviceanu, Tudor, additional, Adams, Matthew D., additional, Kalisa, Egide, additional, Kuuire, Vincent Z., additional, Aditya, Vikram, additional, Anderwald, Pia, additional, Wiesmann, Samuel, additional, Wipf, Sonja, additional, Badihi, Gal, additional, Henderson, Matthew G., additional, Loetscher, Hanspeter, additional, Baerenfaller, Katja, additional, Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro, additional, Bulleri, Fabio, additional, Bertocci, Iacopo, additional, Maggi, Elena, additional, Rindi, Luca, additional, Ravaglioli, Chiara, additional, Boerder, Kristina, additional, Bonnel, Julien, additional, Mathias, Delphine, additional, Archambault, Philippe, additional, Chauvaud, Laurent, additional, Braun, Camrin D., additional, Thorrold, Simon R., additional, Brownscombe, Jacob W., additional, Midwood, Jonathan D., additional, Boston, Christine M., additional, Brooks, Jill L., additional, Cooke, Steven J., additional, China, Victor, additional, Roll, Uri, additional, Belmaker, Jonathan, additional, Zvuloni, Assaf, additional, Coll, Marta, additional, Ortega, Miquel, additional, Connors, Brendan, additional, Lacko, Lisa, additional, Jayathilake, Dinusha R.M., additional, Costello, Mark J., additional, Crimmins, Theresa M., additional, Barnett, LoriAnne, additional, Denny, Ellen G., additional, Gerst, Katharine L., additional, Marsh, R.L., additional, Posthumus, Erin E., additional, Rodriguez, Reilly, additional, Rosemartin, Alyssa, additional, Schaffer, Sara N., additional, Switzer, Jeff R., additional, Wong, Kevin, additional, Cunningham, Susan J., additional, Sumasgutner, Petra, additional, Amar, Arjun, additional, Thomson, Robert L., additional, Stofberg, Miqkayla, additional, Hofmeyr, Sally, additional, Suri, Jessleena, additional, Stuart-Smith, Rick D., additional, Day, Paul B., additional, Edgar, Graham J., additional, Cooper, Antonia T., additional, De Leo, Fabio Cabrera, additional, Garner, Grant, additional, Des Brisay, Paulson G., additional, Schrimpf, Michael B., additional, Koper, Nicola, additional, Diamond, Michael S., additional, Dwyer, Ross G., additional, Baker, Cameron J., additional, Franklin, Craig E., additional, Efrat, Ron, additional, Berger-Tal, Oded, additional, Hatzofe, Ohad, additional, Eguíluz, Víctor M., additional, Rodríguez, Jorge P., additional, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, additional, Elustondo, David, additional, Calatayud, Vicent, additional, English, Philina A., additional, Archer, Stephanie K., additional, Dudas, Sarah E., additional, Haggarty, Dana R., additional, Gallagher, Austin J., additional, Shea, Brendan D., additional, Shipley, Oliver N., additional, Gilby, Ben L., additional, Ballantyne, Jasmine, additional, Olds, Andrew D., additional, Henderson, Christopher J., additional, Schlacher, Thomas A., additional, Halliday, William D., additional, Brown, Nicholas A.W., additional, Woods, Mackenzie B., additional, Balshine, Sigal, additional, Juanes, Francis, additional, Rider, Mitchell J., additional, Albano, Patricia S., additional, Hammerschlag, Neil, additional, Hays, Graeme C., additional, Esteban, Nicole, additional, Pan, Yuhang, additional, He, Guojun, additional, Tanaka, Takanao, additional, Hensel, Marc J.S., additional, Orth, Robert J., additional, Patrick, Christopher J., additional, Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas, additional, Olsson, Olof, additional, Hessing-Lewis, Margot L., additional, Higgs, Nicholas D., additional, Hindell, Mark A., additional, McMahon, Clive R., additional, Harcourt, Rob, additional, Guinet, Christophe, additional, Hirsch, Sarah E., additional, Perrault, Justin R., additional, Hoover, Shelby R., additional, Reilly, Jennifer D., additional, Hobaiter, Catherine, additional, Gruber, Thibaud, additional, Huveneers, Charlie, additional, Udyawer, Vinay, additional, Clarke, Thomas M., additional, Kroesen, Laura P., additional, Hik, David S., additional, Cherry, Seth G., additional, Del Bel Belluz, Justin A., additional, Jackson, Jennifer M., additional, Lai, Shengjie, additional, Lamb, Clayton T., additional, LeClair, Gregory D., additional, Parmelee, Jeffrey R., additional, Chatfield, Matthew W.H., additional, Frederick, Cheryl A., additional, Lee, Sangdon, additional, Park, Hyomin, additional, Choi, Jaein, additional, LeTourneux, Frédéric, additional, Grandmont, Thierry, additional, de-Broin, Frédéric Dulude, additional, Bêty, Joël, additional, Gauthier, Gilles, additional, Legagneux, Pierre, additional, Lewis, Jesse S., additional, Haight, Jeffrey, additional, Liu, Zhu, additional, Lyon, Jarod P., additional, Hale, Robin, additional, D'Silva, Dallas, additional, MacGregor-Fors, Ian, additional, Arbeláez-Cortés, Enrique, additional, Estela, Felipe A., additional, Sánchez-Sarria, Camilo E., additional, García-Arroyo, Michelle, additional, Aguirre-Samboní, Giann K., additional, Franco Morales, Juan C., additional, Malamud, Shahar, additional, Gavriel, Tal, additional, Buba, Yehezkel, additional, Salingré, Shira, additional, Lazarus, Mai, additional, Yahel, Ruthy, additional, Ari, Yigael Ben, additional, Miller, Eyal, additional, Sade, Rotem, additional, Lavian, Guy, additional, Birman, Ziv, additional, Gury, Manor, additional, Baz, Harel, additional, Baskin, Ilia, additional, Penn, Alon, additional, Dolev, Amit, additional, Licht, Ogen, additional, Karkom, Tabi, additional, Davidzon, Sharon, additional, Berkovitch, Avi, additional, Yaakov, Ofer, additional, Manenti, Raoul, additional, Mori, Emiliano, additional, Ficetola, Gentile Francesco, additional, Lunghi, Enrico, additional, March, David, additional, Godley, Brendan J., additional, Martin, Cecilia, additional, Mihaly, Steven F., additional, Barclay, David R., additional, Thomson, Dugald J.M., additional, Dewey, Richard, additional, Bedard, Jeannette, additional, Miller, Aroha, additional, Dearden, Amber, additional, Chapman, Jennifer, additional, Dares, Lauren, additional, Borden, Laura, additional, Gibbs, Donna, additional, Schultz, Jessica, additional, Sergeenko, Nikita, additional, Francis, Fiona, additional, Weltman, Amanda, additional, Moity, Nicolas, additional, Ramírez-González, Jorge, additional, Mucientes, Gonzalo, additional, Alonso-Fernández, Alexandre, additional, Namir, Itai, additional, Bar-Massada, Avi, additional, Chen, Ron, additional, Yedvab, Shmulik, additional, Okey, Thomas A., additional, Oppel, Steffen, additional, Arkumarev, Volen, additional, Bakari, Samuel, additional, Dobrev, Vladimir, additional, Saravia-Mullin, Victoria, additional, Bounas, Anastasios, additional, Dobrev, Dobromir, additional, Kret, Elzbieta, additional, Mengistu, Solomon, additional, Pourchier, Cloé, additional, Ruffo, Alazar, additional, Tesfaye, Million, additional, Wondafrash, Mengistu, additional, Nikolov, Stoyan C., additional, Palmer, Charles, additional, Sileci, Lorenzo, additional, Rex, Patrick T., additional, Lowe, Christopher G., additional, Peters, Francesc, additional, Pine, Matthew K., additional, Radford, Craig A., additional, Wilson, Louise, additional, McWhinnie, Lauren, additional, Scuderi, Alessia, additional, Jeffs, Andrew G., additional, Prudic, Kathleen L., additional, Larrivée, Maxim, additional, McFarland, Kent P., additional, Solis, Rodrigo, additional, Hutchinson, Rebecca A., additional, Queiroz, Nuno, additional, Furtado, Miguel A., additional, Sims, David W., additional, Southall, Emily, additional, Quesada-Rodriguez, Claudio A., additional, Diaz-Orozco, Jessica P., additional, Rodgers, Ku'ulei S., additional, Severino, Sarah J.L., additional, Graham, Andrew T., additional, Stefanak, Matthew P., additional, Madin, Elizabeth M.P., additional, Ryan, Peter G., additional, Maclean, Kyle, additional, Weideman, Eleanor A., additional, Şekercioğlu, Çağan H., additional, Kittelberger, Kyle D., additional, Kusak, Josip, additional, Seminoff, Jeffrey A., additional, Hanna, Megan E., additional, Shimada, Takahiro, additional, Meekan, Mark G., additional, Smith, Martin K.S., additional, Mokhatla, Mohlamatsane M., additional, Soh, Malcolm C.K., additional, Pang, Roanna Y.T., additional, Ng, Breyl X.K., additional, Lee, Benjamin P.Y.-H., additional, Loo, Adrian H.B., additional, Er, Kenneth B.H., additional, Souza, Gabriel B.G., additional, Stallings, Christopher D., additional, Curtis, Joseph S., additional, Faletti, Meaghan E., additional, Peake, Jonathan A., additional, Schram, Michael J., additional, Wall, Kara R., additional, Terry, Carina, additional, Rothendler, Matt, additional, Zipf, Lucy, additional, Ulloa, Juan Sebastián, additional, Hernández-Palma, Angélica, additional, Gómez-Valencia, Bibiana, additional, Cruz-Rodríguez, Cristian, additional, Herrera-Varón, Yenifer, additional, Roa, Margarita, additional, Rodríguez-Buriticá, Susana, additional, Ochoa-Quintero, Jose Manuel, additional, Vardi, Reut, additional, Vázquez, Víctor, additional, Requena-Mesa, Christian, additional, Warrington, Miyako H., additional, Taylor, Michelle E., additional, Woodall, Lucy C., additional, Stefanoudis, Paris V., additional, Zhang, Xiangliang, additional, Yang, Qiang, additional, Zukerman, Yuval, additional, Sigal, Zehava, additional, Ayali, Amir, additional, Clua, Eric E.G., additional, Carzon, Pamela, additional, Seguine, Clementine, additional, Corradini, Andrea, additional, Pedrotti, Luca, additional, Foley, Catherine M., additional, Gagnon, Catherine Alexandra, additional, Panipakoochoo, Elijah, additional, Milanes, Celene B., additional, Botero, Camilo M., additional, Velázquez, Yunior R., additional, Milchakova, Nataliya A., additional, Morley, Simon A., additional, Martin, Stephanie M., additional, Nanni, Veronica, additional, Otero, Tanya, additional, Wakeling, Julia, additional, Abarro, Sarah, additional, Piou, Cyril, additional, Sobral, Ana F.L., additional, Soto, Eulogio H., additional, Weigel, Emily G., additional, Bernal-Ibáñez, Alejandro, additional, Gestoso, Ignacio, additional, Cacabelos, Eva, additional, Cagnacci, Francesca, additional, Devassy, Reny P., additional, Loretto, Matthias-Claudio, additional, Moraga, Paula, additional, Rutz, Christian, additional, and Duarte, Carlos M., additional

Published
2021
Full Text
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41. Vulnerabilities of democratic electoral systems

Author

Wilinski, Mateusz, Klamut, Jarosław, Bouman, Paul, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Cremades, Roger, and Raducha, Tomasz

Abstract

Trabajo presentado en la Conference on Complex Systems (CCS), celebrada en Lyon del 25 al 29 de octubre de 2021., The vulnerability of democratic processes is under scrutiny after scandals related to Cambrige Analytica (2016 U.S. elections, the Brexit referendum, and elections in Kenya [1]). The deceptive use of social media in the US, the European Union and several Asian countries, increased social and political polarization across world regions. Finally, there are straightforward frauds like Crimea referendum and Belarus elections. These challenges are eroding democracy, the most frequent source of governmental power, and raise multiple questions about its vulnerabilities [2]. Democratic systems have countless ways of performing elections, which create different electoral systems (ES). It is therefore in citizens’ interest to study and understand how different ESs relate to different vulnerabilities and contemporary challenges. These systems can be analyzed using network science in various layers – they involve a network of voters in the first place, a network of electoral districts connected by commuting flow for instance, or a network of political parties to give a few examples. The electoral system together with the underlying voting processes and opinion dynamics can be seen as a complex system [3]. We study electoral systems in a dynamical framework. We look at the volatility of the election results, analyzing how much they vary over time. However, the term volatility is frequently used in relation to the Pedersen index of volatility. In this meaning it has been studied and even linked to the party system instability [4, 5]. Our approach goes far beyond two-point volatility. We analyze the vulnerability of an ES based on a long run of opinion dynamics process with many elections performed during the evolution. In this context, we consider that a system is more vulnerable, if it has a larger variance of the election results and if it magnifies the influence of extremism and media. We can further identify which voting system is more sensitive to fluctuations, and which one is more vulnerable to internal/external influences, like zealots or propaganda. This allows us to construct a probability distribution of election results under every electoral system. It is essential to provide new tools and arguments to the discussion on the evaluation of electoral systems. We aim at comparing different ESs in a dynamical framework. Our novel approach of analyzing electoral systems in such way with all its aspects included, from opinion dynamics in the population of voters to inter-district commuting patterns to seat appointment methods, will help answering questions like: Which electoral systems are more predictable/stable under fluctuations? Which electoral systems are the most robust (or vulnerable) under external and internal influences? Which features of electoral systems make them more (less) stable?

Published
2021

43. OTU ecological dynamics models from longitudinal abundance data

Author

Sheykhali, Somaye, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Duarte, Carlos M., Irigoien, Xabier, and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Abstract

Trabajo presentado en el Networks 2021: A Joint Sunbelt and NetSci Conference (2021), celebrado online del 5 al 10 de julio de 2021., Microorganisms like bacteria, archaea and eukaryotes coexist in large and complex ecosystems. Actually, microbial communities form the largest and more diverse ecosystems on the planet. The interactions among their individuals are diverse, encompasing mutualism, comensalism, or competition. Measuring these interactions in direction and strength at a large scale is a challenging process that requires a combination of data analysis and modeling. Furthermore, the dynamic nature of the abundances of different species of microorganisms cannot be ignored to present a sound theory on microbial interactions. Here we use experimental data that reported the OTU (operational taxonomic units, quasi-equivalent to a species definition) abundance every day for a period of 20 days. These data on OTU abundances is fitted to a growth model that contains a local term that consists of a growth constant and a power of the abundance of the species, and an interaction term that encodes the effect of other OTU abundances on the self abundance of one OTU. The fitted model reveals thus the intrinsic growth rates of singles OTUs, their growth scaling exponent and the interaction network among OTUs. This interaction network contains both positive and negative ties, reflecting the synergetic or antagonistic nature of the interactions among OTUs. We performed statistical significance analysis to detect relevant interactions. Finally we show the interactions as a multilayer signed and weitghted network with two layers, where Eukaryotes sit on one of the layers and Prokaryotes on the other. Furthermore we apply several network tools to assess different properties of the network. For example, we cluster OTUs based on community detection algorithms to detect relevant groups. We also use a variety of centrality measures to disentangle which OTUs play a more important role in the network. Our approach offers a comprehensive view on microbial communities organizations from a dynamical perspective fusing modelling strategies and data analysis.

Published
2021

44. Dynamical models from microbial communities abundance data

Author

Sheykhali, Somaye, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Rodríguez-García, Jorge Pablo, Irigoien, Xabier, Duarte, Carlos M., Eguíluz, Víctor M., Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), and Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)

Abstract

Trabajo presentado en la Complex Networks (10th International Conference on Complex Networks and their Applications), celebrado en formato híbrido (online y presencial en Madrid) del 30 de noviembre al 2 de diciembre de 2021., Microorganisms like bacteria, archaea and eukaryotes coexist in large and complex ecosystems. Actually, microbial communities form the largest and more diverse ecosystems on the planet. The interactions among their individuals are diverse, encompasing mutualism, comensalism, or competition. Measuring these interactions in direction and strength at a large scale is a challenging process that requires a combination of data analysis and modeling. Furthermore, the dynamic nature of the abundances of different species of microorganisms cannot be ignored to present a sound theory on microbial interactions. Here we use experimental data that reported the OTU (operational taxonomic units, quasi-equivalent to a species definition) abundance every day for a period of 20 days. These data on OTU abundances is fitted to a growth model (Lotka Volterra) that contains a local term that consists of a growth constant and an interaction term that encodes the effect of other OTU abundances on the self abundance of one OTU. The model describes the changes per unit time in the abundance of a species., This contribution is part of the project PID2020-114324GB-C22 funded by MCIN/ AEI /10.13039/501100011033

Published
2021

45. Inferring leader-follower behavior from presence data

Author

Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Rodríguez-García, Jorge Pablo, and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Abstract

Trabajo presentado en el V Symposium on Ecological Networks (ECONET 2021), celebrado en Palma de Mallorca del 10 al 12 de noviembre de 2021.

Published
2021

46. Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

Author

Bates, Amanda E., Primack, Richard B., Biggar, Brandy S., Bird, Thomas J., Clinton, Mary E., Command, Rylan J., Richards, Cerren, Shellard, Marc, Geraldi, Nathan R., Vergara, Valeria, Acevedo-Charry, Orlando, Colón-Piñeiro, Zuania, Ocampo, David, Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia, Sánchez-Clavijo, Lina M., Adamescu, Cristian M., Cheval, Sorin, Racoviceanu, Tudor, Adams, Matthew D., Kalisa, Egide, Kuuire, Vincent Z., Aditya, Vikram, Anderwald, Pia, Wiesmann, Samuel, Wipf, Sonja, Badihi, Gal, Henderson, Matthew G., Loetscher, Hanspeter, Baerenfaller, Katja, Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro, Bulleri, Fabio, Bertocci, Lacopo, Maggi, Elena, Rindi, Luca, Ravaglioli, Chiara, Boerder, Kristina, Bonnel, Julien, Mathias, Delphine, Archambault, Philippe, Chauvaud, Laurent, Braun, Camrin D., Thorrold, Simon R., Brownscombe, Jacob W., Midwood, Jonathan D., Boston, Christine M., Brooks, Jill L., Cooke, Steven J., China, Victor, Roll, Uri, Belmaker, Jonathan, Zvuloni, Assaf, Coll, Marta, Ortega, Miquel, Connors, Brendan, Lacko, Lisa, Jayathilake, Dinusha R.M., Costello, Mark J., Crimmins, Theresa M., Barnett, LoriAnne, Denny, Ellen G., Gerst, Katharine L., Marsh, R.L., Posthumus, Erin E., Rodriguez, Reilly, Rosemartin, Alyssa, Schaffer, Sara N., Switzer, Jeff R., Wong, Kevin, Cunningham, Susan J., Sumasgutner, Petra, Amar, Arjun, Thomson, Robert L., Stofberg, Miqkayla, Hofmeyr, Sally, Suri, Jessleena, Stuart-Smith, Rick D., Day, Paul B., Edgar, Graham J., Cooper, Antonia T., Cabrera De Leo, Fabio, Garner, Grant, Des Brisay, Paulson G., Schrimpf, Michael B., Koper, Nicola, Diamond, Michael S., Dwyer, Ross G., Baker, Cameron J, Franklin, Craig E., Efrat, Ron, Berger-Tal, Oded, Hatzofe, Ohad, Eguíluz, Víctor M., Rodríguez, Jorge P., Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Elustondo, David, Calatayud, Vicent, English, Philina A., Archer, Stephanie K., Dudas, Sarah E., Haggarty, Dana R., Gallagher, Austin J., Shea, Brandan D., Shipley, Oliver N., Gilby, Ben L., Ballantyne, Jasmine, Olds, Andrew D., Henderson, Christopher J., Schlacher, Thomas A., Halliday, William D., Brown, Nicholas A.W., Woods, Mackenzie B., Balshine, Sigal, Juanes, Francis, Rider, Mitchell J., Albano, Patricia S., Hammerschlag, Neil, Hays, Graeme C., Esteban, Nicole, Pan, Yuhang, He, Guojun, Tanaka, Takanao, Hensel, Marc J.S., Orth, Robert J., Patrick, Christopher J., Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas, Olsson, Olof, Hessing-Lewis, Margot L., Higgs, Nicholas D., McMahon, Clive R., Harcourt, Rob, Guinet, Christophe, Hirsch, Sarah E., Perrault, Justin R., Hoover, Shelby R., Reilly, Jennifer D., Hobaiter, Catherine, Gruber, Thibaud, Huveneers, Charlie, Udyawer, Vinay, Clarke, Thomas M., Kroesen, Laura P., Hik, David S., Cherry, Seth G., Del Bel Belluz, Justin A., Jackson, Jennifer M., Lai, Shengjie, Lamb, Clayton T., LeClair, Gregory D., Parmelee, Jeffrey R., Chatfield, Matthew W.H., Frederick, Cheryl A., Lee, Sangdon, Park, Hyomin, Choi, Jaein, LeTourneux, Frédéric, Grandmont, Thierry, Dulude de-Broin, Frédéric, Bêty, Joël, Gauthier, Gilles, Legagneux, Pierre, Lewis, Jesse S., Haight, Jeffrey, Liu, Zhu, Lyon, Jarod P., Hale, Robin, D'Silva, Dallas, MacGregor-Fors, Ian, Arbelaez-Cortes, Enrique, Estela, Felipe A., Sánchez-Sarria, Camilo E., García-Arroyo, Michelle, Aguirre-Samboní, Giann K., Franco Morales, Juan C., Malamud, Shahar, Gavriel, Tal, Buba, Yehezkel, Salingré, Shira, Lazarus, Mai, Yahel, Ruthy, Ben Ari, Yigael, Miller, Eyal, Sade, Rotem, Lavian, Guy, Birman, Ziv, Gury, Manor, Baz, Harel, Baskin, Ilia, Penn, Alon, Dolev, Amit, Licht, Ogen, Karkom, Tabi, Davidzon, Sharon, Berkovitch, Avi, Yaakov, Ofer, Manenti, Raoul, Mori, Emiliano, Ficetola, Gentile Francesco, Lunghi, Enrico, March, David, Godley, Brendan J., Martin, Cecilia, Mihaly, Steven F., Barclay, David R., Thomson, Dugald J.M., Dewey, Richard, Bedard, Jeannette, Miller, Aroha, Dearden, Amber, Chapman, Jennifer, Dares, Lauren, Borden, Laura, Gibbs, Donna, Schultz, Jessica, Sergeenko, Nikita, Francis, Fiona, Weltman, Amanda, Moity, Nicolas, Ramírez-González, Jorge, Mucientes, Gonzalo, Alonso-Fernández, Alexandre, Namir, Itai, Bar-Massada, Avi, Chen, Ron, Yedvab, Shmulik, Okey, Thomas A., Oppel, Steffen, Arkumarev, Volen, Bakari, Samuel, Dobrev, Vladimir, Saravia-Mullin, Victoria, Bounas, Anastasios, Kret, Elzbieta, Mengistu, Solomon, Pourchier, Cloé, Ruffo, Alazar, Tesfaye, Million, Wondafrash, Mengistu, Nikolov, Stoyan C., Palmer, Charles, Sileci, Lorenzo, Rex, Patrick T., Lowe, Christopher G., Peters, Francesc, Pine, Matthew K., Radford, Craig A, Wilson, Louise, McWhinnie, Lauren, Scuderi, Alessia, Jeffs, Andrew G., Prudic, Kathleen L., Larrivée, Maxim, McFarland, Kent P., Solis, Rodrigo, Hutchinson, Rebecca A., Queiroz, Nuno, Furtado, Miguel A., Sims, David W., Southall, Emily, Quesada-Rodriguez, Claudio A., Diaz-Orozco, Jessica P., Rodgers, Ku'ulei S., Severino, Sarah J.L., Graham, Andrew, Stefanak, Matthew P., Madin, Elizabeth M.P., Ryan, Peter G., Maclean, Kyle, Weideman, Eleanor A., Sekercioğlu, Cağan H., Kittelberger, Kyle D., Kusak, Josip, Seminoff, Jeffrey A., Hanna, Megan E., Shimada, Takahiro, Meekan, Mark G., Smith, Martin, Mokhatla, Mohlamatsane M., Soh, Malcolm C.K., Pang, Roanna Y.T., Ng, Breyl X.K., Lee, Benjamin P.Y.-H., Loo, Adrian H.B., Er, Kenneth B.H., Souza, Gabriel B.G., Stallings, Christopher D., Curtis, Joseph S., Faletti, Meaghan E., Peake, Jonathan A., Schram, Michael J., Wall, Kara R., Terry, Carina, Rothendler, Matt, Zipf, Lucy, Ulloa, Juan Sebastián, Hernández-Palma, Angélica, Gómez-Valencia, Bibiana, Cruz-Rodríguez, Cristian, Herrera-Varón, Yenifer, Roa, Margarita, Rodríguez-Buriticá, Susana, Ochoa-Quintero, Jose Manuel, Vardi, Reut, Vázquez, Víctor, Requena-Mesa, Christian, Warrington, Miyako H., Taylor, Michelle E., Woodall, Lucy C., Stefanoudis, Paris V., Zhang, Xiangliang, Yang, Qiang, Zukerman, Yuval, Sigal, Zehava, Ayali, Amir, Clua, Eric, Carzon, Pamela, Seguine, Clementine, Corradini, Andrea, Pedrotti, Luca, Foley, Catherine M., Gagnon, Catherine Alexandra, Panipakoochoo, Elijah, Milanes, Celene B., Botero, Camilo M., Velázquez, Yunior R., Milchakova, Nataliya A., Morley, Simon A., Martin, Stephanie M., Nanni, Veronica, Otero, Tania, Wakeling, Julia, Abarro, Sarah, Piou, Cyril, et al., Bates, Amanda E., Primack, Richard B., Biggar, Brandy S., Bird, Thomas J., Clinton, Mary E., Command, Rylan J., Richards, Cerren, Shellard, Marc, Geraldi, Nathan R., Vergara, Valeria, Acevedo-Charry, Orlando, Colón-Piñeiro, Zuania, Ocampo, David, Ocampo-Peñuela, Natalia, Sánchez-Clavijo, Lina M., Adamescu, Cristian M., Cheval, Sorin, Racoviceanu, Tudor, Adams, Matthew D., Kalisa, Egide, Kuuire, Vincent Z., Aditya, Vikram, Anderwald, Pia, Wiesmann, Samuel, Wipf, Sonja, Badihi, Gal, Henderson, Matthew G., Loetscher, Hanspeter, Baerenfaller, Katja, Benedetti-Cecchi, Lisandro, Bulleri, Fabio, Bertocci, Lacopo, Maggi, Elena, Rindi, Luca, Ravaglioli, Chiara, Boerder, Kristina, Bonnel, Julien, Mathias, Delphine, Archambault, Philippe, Chauvaud, Laurent, Braun, Camrin D., Thorrold, Simon R., Brownscombe, Jacob W., Midwood, Jonathan D., Boston, Christine M., Brooks, Jill L., Cooke, Steven J., China, Victor, Roll, Uri, Belmaker, Jonathan, Zvuloni, Assaf, Coll, Marta, Ortega, Miquel, Connors, Brendan, Lacko, Lisa, Jayathilake, Dinusha R.M., Costello, Mark J., Crimmins, Theresa M., Barnett, LoriAnne, Denny, Ellen G., Gerst, Katharine L., Marsh, R.L., Posthumus, Erin E., Rodriguez, Reilly, Rosemartin, Alyssa, Schaffer, Sara N., Switzer, Jeff R., Wong, Kevin, Cunningham, Susan J., Sumasgutner, Petra, Amar, Arjun, Thomson, Robert L., Stofberg, Miqkayla, Hofmeyr, Sally, Suri, Jessleena, Stuart-Smith, Rick D., Day, Paul B., Edgar, Graham J., Cooper, Antonia T., Cabrera De Leo, Fabio, Garner, Grant, Des Brisay, Paulson G., Schrimpf, Michael B., Koper, Nicola, Diamond, Michael S., Dwyer, Ross G., Baker, Cameron J, Franklin, Craig E., Efrat, Ron, Berger-Tal, Oded, Hatzofe, Ohad, Eguíluz, Víctor M., Rodríguez, Jorge P., Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Elustondo, David, Calatayud, Vicent, English, Philina A., Archer, Stephanie K., Dudas, Sarah E., Haggarty, Dana R., Gallagher, Austin J., Shea, Brandan D., Shipley, Oliver N., Gilby, Ben L., Ballantyne, Jasmine, Olds, Andrew D., Henderson, Christopher J., Schlacher, Thomas A., Halliday, William D., Brown, Nicholas A.W., Woods, Mackenzie B., Balshine, Sigal, Juanes, Francis, Rider, Mitchell J., Albano, Patricia S., Hammerschlag, Neil, Hays, Graeme C., Esteban, Nicole, Pan, Yuhang, He, Guojun, Tanaka, Takanao, Hensel, Marc J.S., Orth, Robert J., Patrick, Christopher J., Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas, Olsson, Olof, Hessing-Lewis, Margot L., Higgs, Nicholas D., McMahon, Clive R., Harcourt, Rob, Guinet, Christophe, Hirsch, Sarah E., Perrault, Justin R., Hoover, Shelby R., Reilly, Jennifer D., Hobaiter, Catherine, Gruber, Thibaud, Huveneers, Charlie, Udyawer, Vinay, Clarke, Thomas M., Kroesen, Laura P., Hik, David S., Cherry, Seth G., Del Bel Belluz, Justin A., Jackson, Jennifer M., Lai, Shengjie, Lamb, Clayton T., LeClair, Gregory D., Parmelee, Jeffrey R., Chatfield, Matthew W.H., Frederick, Cheryl A., Lee, Sangdon, Park, Hyomin, Choi, Jaein, LeTourneux, Frédéric, Grandmont, Thierry, Dulude de-Broin, Frédéric, Bêty, Joël, Gauthier, Gilles, Legagneux, Pierre, Lewis, Jesse S., Haight, Jeffrey, Liu, Zhu, Lyon, Jarod P., Hale, Robin, D'Silva, Dallas, MacGregor-Fors, Ian, Arbelaez-Cortes, Enrique, Estela, Felipe A., Sánchez-Sarria, Camilo E., García-Arroyo, Michelle, Aguirre-Samboní, Giann K., Franco Morales, Juan C., Malamud, Shahar, Gavriel, Tal, Buba, Yehezkel, Salingré, Shira, Lazarus, Mai, Yahel, Ruthy, Ben Ari, Yigael, Miller, Eyal, Sade, Rotem, Lavian, Guy, Birman, Ziv, Gury, Manor, Baz, Harel, Baskin, Ilia, Penn, Alon, Dolev, Amit, Licht, Ogen, Karkom, Tabi, Davidzon, Sharon, Berkovitch, Avi, Yaakov, Ofer, Manenti, Raoul, Mori, Emiliano, Ficetola, Gentile Francesco, Lunghi, Enrico, March, David, Godley, Brendan J., Martin, Cecilia, Mihaly, Steven F., Barclay, David R., Thomson, Dugald J.M., Dewey, Richard, Bedard, Jeannette, Miller, Aroha, Dearden, Amber, Chapman, Jennifer, Dares, Lauren, Borden, Laura, Gibbs, Donna, Schultz, Jessica, Sergeenko, Nikita, Francis, Fiona, Weltman, Amanda, Moity, Nicolas, Ramírez-González, Jorge, Mucientes, Gonzalo, Alonso-Fernández, Alexandre, Namir, Itai, Bar-Massada, Avi, Chen, Ron, Yedvab, Shmulik, Okey, Thomas A., Oppel, Steffen, Arkumarev, Volen, Bakari, Samuel, Dobrev, Vladimir, Saravia-Mullin, Victoria, Bounas, Anastasios, Kret, Elzbieta, Mengistu, Solomon, Pourchier, Cloé, Ruffo, Alazar, Tesfaye, Million, Wondafrash, Mengistu, Nikolov, Stoyan C., Palmer, Charles, Sileci, Lorenzo, Rex, Patrick T., Lowe, Christopher G., Peters, Francesc, Pine, Matthew K., Radford, Craig A, Wilson, Louise, McWhinnie, Lauren, Scuderi, Alessia, Jeffs, Andrew G., Prudic, Kathleen L., Larrivée, Maxim, McFarland, Kent P., Solis, Rodrigo, Hutchinson, Rebecca A., Queiroz, Nuno, Furtado, Miguel A., Sims, David W., Southall, Emily, Quesada-Rodriguez, Claudio A., Diaz-Orozco, Jessica P., Rodgers, Ku'ulei S., Severino, Sarah J.L., Graham, Andrew, Stefanak, Matthew P., Madin, Elizabeth M.P., Ryan, Peter G., Maclean, Kyle, Weideman, Eleanor A., Sekercioğlu, Cağan H., Kittelberger, Kyle D., Kusak, Josip, Seminoff, Jeffrey A., Hanna, Megan E., Shimada, Takahiro, Meekan, Mark G., Smith, Martin, Mokhatla, Mohlamatsane M., Soh, Malcolm C.K., Pang, Roanna Y.T., Ng, Breyl X.K., Lee, Benjamin P.Y.-H., Loo, Adrian H.B., Er, Kenneth B.H., Souza, Gabriel B.G., Stallings, Christopher D., Curtis, Joseph S., Faletti, Meaghan E., Peake, Jonathan A., Schram, Michael J., Wall, Kara R., Terry, Carina, Rothendler, Matt, Zipf, Lucy, Ulloa, Juan Sebastián, Hernández-Palma, Angélica, Gómez-Valencia, Bibiana, Cruz-Rodríguez, Cristian, Herrera-Varón, Yenifer, Roa, Margarita, Rodríguez-Buriticá, Susana, Ochoa-Quintero, Jose Manuel, Vardi, Reut, Vázquez, Víctor, Requena-Mesa, Christian, Warrington, Miyako H., Taylor, Michelle E., Woodall, Lucy C., Stefanoudis, Paris V., Zhang, Xiangliang, Yang, Qiang, Zukerman, Yuval, Sigal, Zehava, Ayali, Amir, Clua, Eric, Carzon, Pamela, Seguine, Clementine, Corradini, Andrea, Pedrotti, Luca, Foley, Catherine M., Gagnon, Catherine Alexandra, Panipakoochoo, Elijah, Milanes, Celene B., Botero, Camilo M., Velázquez, Yunior R., Milchakova, Nataliya A., Morley, Simon A., Martin, Stephanie M., Nanni, Veronica, Otero, Tania, Wakeling, Julia, Abarro, Sarah, Piou, Cyril, and et al.

Abstract

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus, initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness.

Published
2021

47. The global network of ports supporting high seas fishing

Author

Rodríguez-García, Jorge Pablo, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Duarte, Carlos M., Irigoien, Xabier, Eguíluz, Víctor M., Rodríguez-García, Jorge Pablo, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Duarte, Carlos M., Irigoien, Xabier, and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Abstract

Fisheries in waters beyond national jurisdiction (“high seas”) are difficult to monitor and manage. Their regulation for sustainability requires critical information on how fishing effort is distributed across fishing and landing areas, including possible border effects at the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) limits. We infer the global network linking harbors supporting fishing vessels to fishing areas in high seas from automatic identification system tracking data in 2014, observing a modular structure, with vessels departing from a given harbor fishing mostly in a single province. The top 16% of these harbors support 84% of fishing effort in high seas, with harbors in low-and middle-income countries ranked among the top supporters. Fishing effort concentrates along narrow strips attached to the boundaries of EEZs with productive fisheries, identifying a free-riding behavior that jeopardizes efforts by nations to sustainably manage their fisheries, perpetuating the tragedy of the commons affecting global fishery resources.

Published
2021

48. The global network of ports supporting high seas fishing

Author

King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Universidad de Las Islas Baleares, Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte (España), European Commission, Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Rodríguez-García, Jorge Pablo, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Duarte, Carlos M., Irigoien, Xabier, Eguíluz, Víctor M., King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Universidad de Las Islas Baleares, Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte (España), European Commission, Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Rodríguez-García, Jorge Pablo, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Duarte, Carlos M., Irigoien, Xabier, and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Abstract

Fisheries in waters beyond national jurisdiction (“high seas”) are difficult to monitor and manage. Their regulation for sustainability requires critical information on how fishing effort is distributed across fishing and landing areas, including possible border effects at the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) limits. We infer the global network linking harbors supporting fishing vessels to fishing areas in high seas from automatic identification system tracking data in 2014, observing a modular structure, with vessels departing from a given harbor fishing mostly in a single province. The top 16% of these harbors support 84% of fishing effort in high seas, with harbors in low- and middle-income countries ranked among the top supporters. Fishing effort concentrates along narrow strips attached to the boundaries of EEZs with productive fisheries, identifying a free-riding behavior that jeopardizes efforts by nations to sustainably manage their fisheries, perpetuating the tragedy of the commons affecting global fishery resources.

Published
2021

49. Dynamical models from microbial communities abundance data

Author

Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Sheykhali, Somaye, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Rodríguez-García, Jorge Pablo, Irigoien, Xabier, Duarte, Carlos M., Eguíluz, Víctor M., Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Sheykhali, Somaye, Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Rodríguez-García, Jorge Pablo, Irigoien, Xabier, Duarte, Carlos M., and Eguíluz, Víctor M.

Abstract

Microorganisms like bacteria, archaea and eukaryotes coexist in large and complex ecosystems. Actually, microbial communities form the largest and more diverse ecosystems on the planet. The interactions among their individuals are diverse, encompasing mutualism, comensalism, or competition. Measuring these interactions in direction and strength at a large scale is a challenging process that requires a combination of data analysis and modeling. Furthermore, the dynamic nature of the abundances of different species of microorganisms cannot be ignored to present a sound theory on microbial interactions. Here we use experimental data that reported the OTU (operational taxonomic units, quasi-equivalent to a species definition) abundance every day for a period of 20 days. These data on OTU abundances is fitted to a growth model (Lotka Volterra) that contains a local term that consists of a growth constant and an interaction term that encodes the effect of other OTU abundances on the self abundance of one OTU. The model describes the changes per unit time in the abundance of a species.

Published
2021

50. Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

Author

European Commission, Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Bates, Amanda E., Primack, Richard B., PAN-Environment Working Group, Duarte, Carlos M., Coll, Marta, Eguíluz, Víctor M., Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Mucientes, Gonzalo, Alonso-Fernández, Alexandre, Peters, Francesc, European Commission, Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España), Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España), Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Bates, Amanda E., Primack, Richard B., PAN-Environment Working Group, Duarte, Carlos M., Coll, Marta, Eguíluz, Víctor M., Fernández-Gracia, Juan, Mucientes, Gonzalo, Alonso-Fernández, Alexandre, and Peters, Francesc

Abstract

The global lockdown to mitigate COVID-19 pandemic health risks has altered human interactions with nature. Here, we report immediate impacts of changes in human activities on wildlife and environmental threats during the early lockdown months of 2020, based on 877 qualitative reports and 332 quantitative assessments from 89 different studies. Hundreds of reports of unusual species observations from around the world suggest that animals quickly responded to the reductions in human presence. However, negative effects of lockdown on conservation also emerged, as confinement resulted in some park officials being unable to perform conservation, restoration and enforcement tasks, resulting in local increases in illegal activities such as hunting. Overall, there is a complex mixture of positive and negative effects of the pandemic lockdown on nature, all of which have the potential to lead to cascading responses which in turn impact wildlife and nature conservation. While the net effect of the lockdown will need to be assessed over years as data becomes available and persistent effects emerge, immediate responses were detected across the world. Thus initial qualitative and quantitative data arising from this serendipitous global quasi-experimental perturbation highlights the dual role that humans play in threatening and protecting species and ecosystems. Pathways to favorably tilt this delicate balance include reducing impacts and increasing conservation effectiveness

Published
2021

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