1. A delphi-based model for prognosis of femoral head collapse in osteonecrosis: a multi-factorial approach.
- Author
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Yang TJ, Sun SY, Zhang L, Zhang XP, and He HJ
- Subjects
- Humans, Prognosis, Male, Female, Middle Aged, Nomograms, Adult, Femur Head diagnostic imaging, Femur Head pathology, Femur Head Necrosis diagnostic imaging, Delphi Technique
- Abstract
Background: Osteonecrosis of the femoral head (ONFH) is a progressive and debilitating condition characterized by the death of bone tissue due to inadequate blood supply. Despite advances in diagnostic imaging and treatment strategies, predicting the risk of femoral head collapse remains a significant clinical challenge. This study seeks to address this gap by developing a robust prognostic model that integrates clinical, imaging, and laboratory data to improve early diagnosis and guide therapeutic decision-making., Methods: We conducted a qualitative systematic review and employed the Delphi method to select key prognostic factors from clinical data, imaging findings, and laboratory indicators. The study included ONFH patients treated from January 2014 to December 2021. We used univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses to develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of femoral head collapse. The model's performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA)., Results: The study included 297 patients (454 hips) with ONFH. Key prognostic factors identified included pain presence (p < 0.001, RR = 0.185, 95% CI: 0.11-0.31), JIC classification (C1: p < 0.001, RR = 0.096, 95% CI: 0.054-0.171; C2: p < 0.001, RR = 0.323, 95% CI: 0.215-0.487), necrotic area (3 < MNAI < 6: p < 0.001, RR = 0.107, 95% CI: 0.061-0.190; MNAI ≥ 6: p < 0.001, RR = 0.466, 95% CI: 0.314-0.692), weight-bearing reduction (p < 0.001, RR = 0.466, 95% CI: 0.323-0.672), preservation of the anterolateral pillar (p < 0.001, RR = 0.223, 95% CI: 0.223-0.473), and subchondral bone fracture on CT (p < 0.001, RR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.217-0.472). The nomogram demonstrated a high C-index of 0.88, indicating excellent predictive accuracy. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted and observed outcomes, and DCA confirmed the model's clinical utility., Conclusions: The prognostic model developed in this study provides a reliable tool for predicting femoral head collapse in ONFH patients. It allows for early identification of high-risk patients, guiding personalized treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes and reduce the need for invasive surgical procedures., Competing Interests: Declarations Ethics approval and consent to participate This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Wangjing Hospital, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences (Approval No.: WJEC-KT-2022-043-P001; Project No.: CI2021A05406). All procedures involving human participants were conducted in accordance with the ethical standards of the institutional and national research committee and with the 1964 Helsinki declaration and its later amendments. The ethical review included a fast-track process, and it was determined that the research adhered to all required ethical guidelines, ensuring that participants were fully informed of the research, and any adverse events were to be reported promptly to the ethics committee. Consent for publication Not applicable. Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)
- Published
- 2024
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