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Slack – the underutilization of factors of production – varies systematically with economic development. Using novel and detailed measures of the utilization of labor and capital from a large representative sample of firms in rural and urban Kenya, we show that utilization is increasing in firm size, market access, and economic activity. We present a model of firm capacity choice where indivisibility in at least one input is a key driver of slack. We embed the model in spatial general equilibrium, with features characteristic of low-income settings – including many small firms and high transport costs – and show that it rationalizes both the endogenous emergence of slack in steady-state and elastic aggregate supply curves. We empirically validate model predictions using reduced-form estimates of the general equilibrium effects of cash transfers from a large-scale RCT in Kenya. The parsimonious model replicates much of the experimental evidence, predicting a large real multiplier of 1.5, driven by expansion in low-utilization sectors and firms, and limited average price inflation. Counterfactual analyses indicate that multipliers are likely to be meaningfully smaller in lower slack settings, such as urban areas. We use the model to revisit the estimation of spatial spillovers in clustered RCTs and uncover non-trivial ’missing intercept’ effects on income and inflation. Additionally, we innovate methodologically by pre registering key elements of model estimation and validation. The findings suggest that input indivisibilities and slack are key features of developing country settings, and are quantitatively important for macroeconomic dynamics and policies.

Abstract Background Self-rated physical health (SRPH) is known as an important predictor of mortality. Previous studies mostly used baseline values of self-rated health to predict long-term mortality. The effect of change in self-rated physical health on mortality during the course of aging has rarely been researched. The present study aimed to determine SRPH over time in women and men of an aging population, assess whether and how change in SRPH affects mortality while adjusting for known determinants of mortality, and test effect modification by sex on the relation between course of SRPH and mortality. Methods Data of N = 12,423 respondents of the 5-year follow-up of the Gutenberg Health Study (GHS) with participation at the baseline assessment were analysed. All-cause mortality from 5-year follow-up onwards was defined as the primary outcome. SRPH was assessed by a single item. Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for age, sex, socio-economic status and physical diseases were fitted to assess the predictive power of baseline score and course of SRPH. Additionally, effect modification by sex was assessed. Results During a median follow-up period of 7.3 years (quartiles 6.0-8.5 years), 618 (5%) participants died. Overall, 70.9% of the participants indicated good or very good SRPH at baseline (T1) and follow-up (T2), 6.9% rated their SRPH as not so good at T1 and T2, and 0.6% reported bad SRPH at T1 and T2. An improvement of SRPH was indicated by 9.6% and 12.0% indicated deterioration of their SRPH. Change in SRPH added substantial predictive information to the Cox proportional hazards models, when adjusting for relevant covariates. In men, deterioration and constantly bad SRPH were associated with the strongest increase in risk of mortality by 87%, resp. 228%. While improvements increased mortality risk in men (67%), women with an improved SRPH had a lower risk (57%). Conclusion A sizeable subgroup of aging participants reported deterioration of SRPH over five years. The association between change of SRPH and mortality is modified by sex. Deterioration of SRPH predicts mortality over baseline-assessment even when adjusted for relevant covariates. SRPH should be assessed regularly as part of an older individual’s health evaluation. Deterioration, constantly bad and improved SRPH should be taken seriously as unfavorable prognostic indicators, the latter only in men.

Introduction: The aim of the presented prospective observational study was to evaluate the effect of fistula flow on peripheral wave morphology and pulse wave velocity by means of the oscillometric Vicorder®-device with the purpose of fistula surveillance. Methods: Digitized and normalized curves of 53 haemodialysis patients at the fistula and non-fistula arm were analysed. Slope parameters and the areas under the curve of characteristic sections of pulse waves as well as the power spectrum of the pulse waves and their first and second derivatives were computed. Furthermore, the amplitude of volumetric change (AMP) was assessed. Duplex sonography served as a reference method. Results: In the comprehensive set of novel pulse wave parameters significant inter-arm differences were demonstrated and a significant delay of the systolic maximum at the fistula arm in comparison to the non-fistula arm (204 ± 3.4 vs. 162 ± 5.3 ms, p < 0.001) was proven. Unexpectedly, pulse wave velocity apparently did not differ between both arms (7.85 vs. 8.05 m/s at the fistula/non-fistula side, p = 0.942). The inter-arm differences of the slope parameters were more pronounced in forearm than in upper arm fistulas. Finally, we showed that the inter-arm difference of AMP correlated with volume flow (r = 0.326 with p = 0.017). Conclusion: Pulse waves as assessed by oscillometric pulse wave analysis have distinct features at fistula and non-fistula arms. This is due to enhanced arteriovenous flow, i.e. in both the brachial artery and the fistula vein. The analysis of those alterations has the potential to assess fistula function.

Abstract Introduction Chronic lung disease is a major cause of morbidity in African children with HIV infection; however, the microbial determinants of HIV-associated chronic lung disease (HCLD) remain poorly understood. We conducted a case–control study to investigate the prevalence and densities of respiratory microbes among pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV)-naive children with (HCLD +) and without HCLD (HCLD-) established on antiretroviral treatment (ART). Methods Nasopharyngeal swabs collected from HCLD + (defined as forced-expiratory-volume/second

The intersection of the Foundation Plume with the Pacific-Antarctic Ridge is a key location in global geodynamics where a mantle plume is approached by and interacting with a fast-spreading mid-ocean ridge. Here, we discuss a comprehensive major and trace element and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope dataset of new and existing samples from the young Foundation Seamount Chain (300 km southwards. We relate this to the current plate tectonic framework in which the obliquity between the migrating ridge and the absolute plate motions induces a sub-axial asthenospheric flow that preferentially channels plume material southwards.

In a previous study, we showed an anti-inflammatory effect of propionic acid supplementation in dialysis patients. The present study intends to analyze the effect of propionic acid on the chronic inflammatory state and T-cell composition in kidney transplant patients compared to dialysis patients. A total of 10 dialysis patients and 16 kidney transplant patients under immunosuppressive standard triple immunosuppressive therapy received 2 × 500 mg propionic acid per day for 30 days. The cellular immune system was analyzed before and after the propionic acid supplementation and 30–90 days thereafter as a follow-up. We measured the main immune cell types and performed an in-depth characterization of T cells including regulatory T cells (Tregs), B cells, and dendritic cells. In addition, we assessed the functional activity and antigenic responsiveness by analysis of third-party antigen-specific T cells after their stimulation by recall (tetanus diphtheria vaccine) antigen. In dialysis patients, we observed an expansion of CD25highCD127− Tregs after propionic acid intake. In contrast, the same supplementation did not result in any expansion of Tregs in transplant patients under immunosuppressive therapy. We also did not observe any changes in the frequencies of the main immune cell subsets except for CD4+/CD8+ distribution with an increase of CD4+ T cells and decrease of CD8+ T cells in the transplant population. Our data suggest that dietary supplements containing propionate might have a beneficial effect decreasing systemic inflammation in dialysis patients through Treg expansion. However, this effect was not observed in transplant patients, which could be explained by counteracting effect of immunosuppressive drugs preventing Treg expansion.

ImportanceStaphylococcus aureus frequently colonizes the skin and nose of patients with atopic dermatitis (AD), a disease associated with skin barrier dysfunction and chronic cutaneous inflammation. Published genomic studies on AD-associated S. aureus in pediatric populations in sub-Saharan Africa are limited.ObjectivesTo investigate the phenotypic and genomic diversity of S. aureus in children with and without AD during early childhood.Data, setting and participantsA cross-sectional study of 220 children (aged 9–38 months) with AD (cases) and without AD (controls) from Cape Town and Umtata, South Africa.Main outcomes and measuresS. aureus phenotypic and genomic diversity were investigated using whole-genome sequencing, antibiotic susceptibility testing and biofilm microtiter assay.ResultsOf the 124 S. aureus isolates recovered from 220 children, 96 isolates (79 cases and 17 controls) with high-quality sequences were analyzed. Isolates from cases showed greater phenotypic resistance to gentamicin (10%), rifampicin (4%), chloramphenicol (4%), and exhibited multidrug resistance (9%) than in controls. Furthermore, the isolates from cases formed stronger biofilms than those from controls (76% vs. 35%, p = 0.001), but showed no dominance of any virulence factor gene or mobile genetic elements. There was no significant difference in the distribution of immune evasion cluster types between cases and controls. However, IEC type G was identified only among cases.Conclusion and relevanceAD-associated S. aureus has phenotypic and genetic features that are important for successful pathogenic colonization and survival. Further studies are needed to assess the pathological implications of colonization of various S. aureus lineages in vivo to elucidate their pathological contribution to AD pathogenesis and pathophysiology.

Abstract Background Depression is associated with an increased risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, depression may take different courses, and it is not fully understood how these affect the development of diabetes. It is further to be determined whether sex modifies the association between depression and type 2 diabetes. Methods We analyzed data from the Gutenberg Health Study, a longitudinal and population-based cohort study (N = 15,010) in Germany. Depressive symptoms (measured by PHQ-9), history of depression, diabetes mellitus, and relevant covariates were assessed at baseline, and the outcomes of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus were evaluated 5 years later. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios of incident prediabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus, adjusting for potential confounders as identified in a Directed Acyclic Graph. Results In the confounder adjusted model, current depression (PHQ-9 ≥ 10 at baseline; OR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.11 to 2.74, p = 0.011), and persistent depression had a statistically significant (OR = 2.44, 95% CI = 1.62 to 3.54, p = 0.005) effect on incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. A history of depression without current depression had no statistically significant effect on type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.68 to 1.43, p = 0.999). The effect of depression on incident diabetes did not differ significantly between women (OR = 2.02; 95% CI = 1.32 to 3.09) and men (OR = 2.16; 95% CI = 1.41 to 3.31; p-value for interaction on the multiplicative scale p = 0.832 and on the additive scale p = 0.149). Depression did not have a significant effect on incident prediabetes. Conclusion This study shows how the history and trajectory of depression shape the risk for diabetes. This raises interesting questions on the cumulative effects of depression trajectories on diabetes and body metabolism in general. Depression can negatively affect physical health, contributing to increased morbidity and mortality in people with mental disorders.

Abstract Background Phasmatodea are well known for their ability to disguise themselves by mimicking twigs, leaves, or bark, and are therefore commonly referred to as stick and leaf insects. In addition to this and other defensive strategies, many phasmatodean species use paired prothoracic repellent glands to release defensive chemicals when disturbed by predators or parasites. These glands are considered as an autapomorphic trait of the Phasmatodea. However, detailed knowledge of the gland anatomy and chemical compounds is scarce and only a few species were studied until now. We investigated the repellent glands for a global sampling of stick and leaf insects that represents all major phasmatodean lineages morphologically via µCT scans and analyzed the anatomical traits in a phylogenetic context. Results All twelve investigated species possess prothoracic repellent glands that we classify into four distinct gland types. 1: lobe-like glands, 2: sac-like glands without ejaculatory duct, 3: sac-like glands with ejaculatory duct and 4: tube-like glands. Lobe-like glands are exclusively present in Timema, sac-like glands without ejaculatory duct are only found in Orthomeria, whereas the other two types are distributed across all other taxa (= Neophasmatodea). The relative size differences of these glands vary significantly between species, with some glands not exceeding in length the anterior quarter of the prothorax, and other glands extending to the end of the metathorax. Conclusions We could not detect any strong correlation between aposematic or cryptic coloration of the examined phasmatodeans and gland type or size. We hypothesize that a comparatively small gland was present in the last common ancestor of Phasmatodea and Euphasmatodea, and that the gland volume increased independently in subordinate lineages of the Occidophasmata and Oriophasmata. Alternatively, the stem species of Neophasmatodea already developed large glands that were reduced in size several times independently. In any case, our results indicate a convergent evolution of the gland types, which was probably closely linked to properties of the chemical components and different predator selection pressures. Our study is the first showing the great anatomical variability of repellent glands in stick and leaf insects.

BackgroundDuring the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic it was speculated that the virus might be associated with a persistent increase of cardiovascular risk. The present study compares pre- and post-pandemic hospital admission rates for hypertension and coronary artery disease.MethodsSystematic multicentric retrospective cohort analysis of 57.795 hospital admissions in an urban region in Germany during two different periods (pre-pandemic 01–06/2019 vs. post-pandemic era 01–06/2023). Information on hospital admissions for arterial hypertension, chronic coronary syndrome, unstable angina pectoris and acute myocardial infarction were extracted from the hospitals data systems. Additionally, six comorbidities and performed coronary interventions were monitored.ResultsCompared to the pre-pandemic era, there was no increase in hospitalizations for arterial hypertension (516 vs. 483, −6.8%, p = 0.07) or myocardial infarction (487 vs. 349, −23.8%, p

Abstract Previous studies on self-rated health and mortality have usually not differentiated between physical and mental health, respectively have not considered physical diseases. This study aims to determine self-rated physical and mental health from middle to old age, examine associations with mortality adjusted for objective risk factors and assess effect modification by gender. In a large population-based sample (N = 14,993 at baseline), self-rated physical and mental health were rated separately by a single-item. Associations to mortality were modelled by Cox regressions, adjusting for potential confounding variables. Most participants rated their physical (79.4%), resp. mental health (82.3%) as good. Poor self-rated physical health was lowest in the youngest group (19.6%, age 35–44), and highest in midlife (29.1%, age 55–64). Poor self-rated mental health was lowest among the oldest (18.5%), and highest from 45 to 54 years (29.3%). Poor self-rated physical, but not mental health was predictive of mortality when adjusting for objective risk factors. Male gender and poor self-rated physical health interacted (RERI 0.43 95%-CI 0.02–0.85). Self-rated physical health was best in the youngest and worst in the midlife group, this pattern was reversed regarding self-rated mental health. Poor self-rated physical, but not mental health was predictive of mortality, adjusting for objective risk factors. It was more strongly predictive of mortality in men than in women. Poor subjective physical health ratings, should be taken seriously as an unfavorable prognostic sign, particularly in men.

Abstract Biomarker discovery in neurological and psychiatric disorders critically depends on reproducible and transparent methods applied to large-scale datasets. Electroencephalography (EEG) is a promising tool for identifying biomarkers. However, recording, preprocessing, and analysis of EEG data is time-consuming and researcher-dependent. Therefore, we developed DISCOVER-EEG, an open and fully automated pipeline that enables easy and fast preprocessing, analysis, and visualization of resting state EEG data. Data in the Brain Imaging Data Structure (BIDS) standard are automatically preprocessed, and physiologically meaningful features of brain function (including oscillatory power, connectivity, and network characteristics) are extracted and visualized using two open-source and widely used Matlab toolboxes (EEGLAB and FieldTrip). We tested the pipeline in two large, openly available datasets containing EEG recordings of healthy participants and patients with a psychiatric condition. Additionally, we performed an exploratory analysis that could inspire the development of biomarkers for healthy aging. Thus, the DISCOVER-EEG pipeline facilitates the aggregation, reuse, and analysis of large EEG datasets, promoting open and reproducible research on brain function.