A study is presented to develop and assess the utility of some data analysis and representation tools that are useful for dealing with complex nonlinear systems that simultaneously involve aleatory (intrinsic) and epistemic (modeling) uncertainties. A representative uncertain nonlinear system is employed to quantify the interaction effects between model-parameter uncertainty and modeling errors in hysteretic nonlinear systems under random excitation. A single-degree-of-freedom system with bilinear hysteretic characteristics is used to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the dominant parameters that control the idealized restoring force associated with such a system: the yield level, the stiffness in the ‘elastic range’, and the stiffness in the ‘yielded range’. Monte Carlo simulation approaches are used to generate a large, statistically significant, ensemble of time history records that are subsequently used to determine the distribution of the corresponding transient response, and establish the probabilistic bounds on the response time history. The Restoring Force Method is used to determine the power-series coefficients that define an equivalent, approximating surface that characterizes the system behavior. The statistics of the identified coefficients are determined and shown to provide a powerful tool for quantifying the level of uncertainty in the nonlinear system, as well as providing a means for interpreting the significant features of the underlying complex nonlinear behavior. It is shown that the general methodology presented for representing and propagating the effects of uncertainties in complex nonlinear systems through the use of model-free representation, allows the estimation through analytical procedures of the uncertainty bounds on the transient response of the uncertain system when excited by a different dynamic load than the one used to identify it. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.