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12 results on '"Fekete, B. M."'

1. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Author

Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., Fekete, B. M., Franssen, W., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hannah, D. M., Kim, H., Masaki, Y., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Hydrologie, Sub SIM overig, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Hydrologie, Sub SIM overig, and Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology

Subjects
Climate Change, Climate change, extremes, carbon-dioxide, Earth System Science, Atmosphere, models, Hydrology (agriculture), Computer Simulation, elevated co2, WIMEK, Multidisciplinary, Geography, cycle, Global warming, Global Climate Impacts: A Cross-Sector, Multi-Model Assessment Special Feature, Uncertainty, face, Representative Concentration Pathways, Models, Theoretical, Droughts, Water security, Climatology, Greenhouse gas, climate-change, Hydrodynamics, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde, Environmental science, Scale (map), Forecasting
Abstract

Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are expected to modify the global water cycle with significant consequences for terrestrial hydrology. We assess the impact of climate change on hydrological droughts in a multimodel experiment including seven global impact models (GIMs) driven by bias-corrected climate from five global climate models under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Drought severity is defined as the fraction of land under drought conditions. Results show a likely increase in the global severity of hydrological drought at the end of the 21st century, with systematically greater increases for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcings. Under RCP8.5, droughts exceeding 40% of analyzed land area are projected by nearly half of the simulations. This increase in drought severity has a strong signal-to-noise ratio at the global scale, and Southern Europe, the Middle East, the Southeast United States, Chile, and South West Australia are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. The uncertainty due to GIMs is greater than that from global climate models, particularly if including a GIM that accounts for the dynamic response of plants to CO2 and climate, as this model simulates little or no increase in drought frequency. Our study demonstrates that different representations of terrestrial water-cycle processes in GIMs are responsible for a much larger uncertainty in the response of hydrological drought to climate change than previously thought. When assessing the impact of climate change on hydrology, it is therefore critical to consider a diverse range of GIMs to better capture the uncertainty.

Published
2014

2. STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2011 Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 93, No. 7, July 2012

Author

Arndt, D. S., Blunden, J., Willett, K. M., Dolman, A. J., Hall, B. D., Thorne, P. W., Gregg, M. C., Newlin, M. L., Xue, Y., Hu, Z., Kumar, A., Banzon, V., Smith, T. M., Rayner, N. A., Jeffries, M. O., Richter-Menge, J., Overland, J., Bhatt, U., Key, J., Liu, Y., Walsh, J., Wang, M., Fogt, R. L., Scambos, T. A., Wovrosh, A. J., Barreira, S., Sanchez-Lugo, A., Renwick, J. A., Thiaw, W. M., Weaver, S. J., Whitewood, R., Phillips, D., Achberger, C., Ackerman, S. A., Ahmed, F. H., Albanil-Encarnacion, A., Alfaro, E. J., Alves, L. M., Allan, R., Amador, J. A., Ambenje, P., Antoine, M. D., Antonov, J., Arevalo, J., Ashik, I., Atheru, Z., Baccini, A., Baez, J., Baringer, M. O., Barriopedro, D. E., Bates, J. J., Becker, A., Behrenfeld, M. J., Bell, G. D., Benedetti, A., Bernhard, G., Berrisford, P., Berry, D. I., Beszczynska-Moeller, A., Bhatt, U. S., Bidegain, M., Bieniek, P., Birkett, C., Bissolli, P., Blake, E. S., Boudet-Rouco, D., Box, J. E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G. O., Brackenridge, G. R., Brohan, P., Bromwich, D. H., Brown, L., Brown, R., Bruhwiler, L., Bulygina, O. N., Burrows, J., Calderon, B., Camargo, S. J., Cappellen, J., Carmack, E., Carrasco, G., Chambers, D. P., Christiansen, H. H., Christy, J., Chung, D., Ciais, P., Coehlo, C. A. S., Colwell, S., Comiso, J., Cretaux, J. F., Crouch, J., Cunningham, S. A., Jeu, R. A. M., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Diamond, H. J., Dlugokencky, E. J., Dohan, K., Dorigo, W. A., Drozdov, D. S., Duguay, C., Dutton, E., Dutton, G. S., Elkins, J. W., Epstein, H. E., Famiglietti, J. S., Fanton D Andon, O. H., Feely, R. A., Fekete, B. M., Fenimore, C., Fernandez-Prieto, D., Fields, E., Fioletov, V., Folland, C., Foster, M. J., Frajka-Williams, E., Franz, B. A., Frey, K., Frith, S. H., Frolov, I., Frost, G. V., Ganter, C., Garzoli, S., Gitau, W., Gleason, K. L., Gobron, N., Goldenberg, S. B., Goni, G., Gonzalez-Garcia, I., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, N., Good, S. A., Goryl, P., Gottschalck, J., Gouveia, C. M., Griffiths, G. M., Grigoryan, V., Grooss, J. U., Guard, C., Guglielmin, M., Halpert, M. S., Heidinger, A. K., Heikkila, A., Heim, R. R., Hennon, P. A., Hidalgo, H. G., Hilburn, K., Ho, S. P., Hobbs, W. R., Holgate, S., Hook, S. J., Hovsepyan, A., Hu, Z. Z., Hugony, S., Hurst, D. F., Ingvaldsen, R., Itoh, M., Jaimes, E., Jeffries, M., Johns, W. E., Johnsen, B., Johnson, B., Johnson, G. C., Jones, L. T., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J. W., Kang, K. K., Kanzow, T. O., Kao, H. Y., Keller, L. M., Kendon, M., Kennedy, J. J., Kervankiran, S., Khatiwala, S., Kholodov, A. L., Khoshkam, M., Kikuchi, T., Kimberlain, T. B., King, D., Knaff, J. A., Korshunova, N. N., Koskela, T., Kratz, D. P., Krishfield, R., Kruger, A., Kruk, M. C., Lagerloef, G., Lakkala, K., Lammers, R. B., Lander, M. A., Landsea, C. W., Lankhorst, M., Lapinel-Pedroso, B., Lazzara, M. A., Leduc, S., Lefale, P., Leon, G., Leon-Lee, A., Leuliette, E., Levitus, S., L Heureux, M., Lin, II, Liu, H. X., Liu, Y. J., Lobato-Sanchez, R., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N. G., Loeng, H., Long, C. S., Lorrey, A. M., Lumpkin, R., Myhre, C. L., Jing-Jia Luo, Lyman, J. M., Maccallum, S., Macdonald, A. M., Maddux, B. C., Manney, G., Marchenko, S. S., Marengo, J. A., Maritorena, S., Marotzke, J., Marra, J. J., Martinez-Sanchez, O., Maslanik, J., Massom, R. A., Mathis, J. T., Mcbride, C., Mcclain, C. R., Mcgrath, D., Mcgree, S., Mclaughlin, F., Mcvicar, T. R., Mears, C., Meier, W., Meinen, C. S., Menendez, M., Merchant, C., Merrifield, M. A., Miller, L., Mitchum, G. T., Montzka, S. A., Moore, S., Mora, N. P., Morcrette, J. J., Mote, T., Muhle, J., Mullan, A. B., Muller, R., Myhre, C., Nash, E. R., Nerem, R. S., Newman, P. A., Ngari, A., Nishino, S., Njau, L. N., Noetzli, J., Oberman, N. G., Obregon, A., Ogallo, L., Oludhe, C., Oyunjargal, L., Parinussa, R. M., Park, G. H., Parker, D. E., Pasch, R. J., Pascual-Ramirez, R., Pelto, M. S., Penalba, O., Perez-Suarez, R., Perovich, D., Pezza, A. B., Pickart, R., Pinty, B., Pinzon, J., Pitts, M. C., Pour, H. K., Prior, J., Privette, J. L., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, S., Quintana, J., Rabe, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Rajeevan, M., Rayner, D., Raynolds, M. K., Razuvaev, V. N., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Revadekar, J., Rex, M., Rivera, I. L., Robinson, D. A., Rodell, M., Roderick, M. L., Romanovsky, V. E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K. H., Rudels, B., Sabine, C. L., Santee, M. L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, A., Schauer, U., Schemm, J., Schmid, C., Schreck, C., Semiletov, I., Send, U., Sensoy, S., Shakhova, N., Sharp, M., Shiklomanov, N. I., Shimada, K., Shin, J., Siegel, D. A., Simmons, A., Skansi, M., Sokolov, V., Spence, J., Srivastava, A. K., Stackhouse, P. W., Stammerjohn, S., Steele, M., Steffen, K., Steinbrecht, W., Stephenson, T., Stolarski, R. S., Sweet, W., Takahashi, T., Taylor, M. A., Tedesco, M., Thepaut, J. N., Thompson, P., Timmermans, M. L., Tobin, S., Toole, J., Trachte, K., Trewin, B. C., Trigo, R. M., Trotman, A., Tucker, C. J., Ulupinar, Y., Wal, R. S. W., Werf, G. R., Vautard, R., Votaw, G., Wagner, W. W., Wahr, J., Walker, D. A., Wang, C. Z., Wang, J. H., Wang, L., Wang, M. H., Wang, S. H., Wanninkhof, R., Weaver, S., Weber, M., Weingartner, T., Weller, R. A., Wentz, F., Wilber, A. C., Williams, W., Willis, J. K., Wilson, R. C., Wolken, G., Wong, T. M., Woodgate, R., Yamada, R., Yamamoto-Kawai, M., Yoder, J. A., Yu, L. S., Yueh, S., Zhang, L. Y., Zhang, P. Q., Zhao, L., Zhou, X. J., Zimmermann, S., Zubair, L., Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Space Technology Center, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Climate Research Division [Toronto], Environment and Climate Change Canada, Earth and Space Research Institute [Seattle] (ESR), Department of Hydrology and Geo-Environmental Sciences [Amsterdam], Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Instituto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa = University of Lisbon (ULISBOA), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), University of California Center for Hydrologic Modeling [Irvine] (UCCHM), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Physics [Boulder], University of Colorado [Boulder], Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare [Pisa] (INFN), Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), University at Albany [SUNY], State University of New York (SUNY), Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), University of Wisconsin-Madison-NASA-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Peking University [Beijing], National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), The University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB), Institut für Umweltphysik [Bremen] (IUP), Universität Bremen, Department of Meteorology, University of Nairobi (UoN), Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), IGAD, Institute for Environment and Sustainability of the JRC, Partenaires INRAE, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Agricultural Information Institute (AII), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Universitá degli Studi dell’Insubria = University of Insubria [Varese] (Uninsubria), Heilongjiang Institute of Science and Technology, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR), University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), ESRL Global Monitoring Laboratory [Boulder] (GML), Materials and structures Laboratory, Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo] (TITECH), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables], Norwegian Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Direction Interrégionale de Météo-France pour l'océan Indien (DIROI), Météo-France, Department of Earth Sciences [Oxford], University of Oxford, NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] (LaRC), University of Hawai‘i [Mānoa] (UHM), Department of Earth and Space Sciences [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften (IFM-GEOMAR), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), Agroécologie [Dijon], Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement, Huazhong Agricultural University [Wuhan] (HZAU), NOAA National Weather Service (NWS), Department of Oceanography, Florida State University [Tallahassee] (FSU), Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), NorthWest Research Associates (NWRA), Department of Physics [Socorro], New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology [New Mexico Tech] (NMT), Ocean and Earth Science [Southampton], University of Southampton-National Oceanography Centre (NOC), Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE-CRC), Massachusetts General Hospital [Boston], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Australian Research Council (ARC), Remote Sensing Systems [Santa Rosa] (RSS), Développement, institutions et analyses de long terme (DIAL), Université Paris Dauphine-PSL, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), University of California (UC), NMR Laboratory, Université de Mons, Université de Mons (UMons), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Glaciology, Geomorphodynamics and Geochronology, Department of Geography [Zürich], Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH)-Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH), Chemistry Department [Massachusetts Institute of Technology], Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Nichols College Dudley, ERDC Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL), USACE Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), European Commission, Space Science and Engineering Center [Madison] (SSEC), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Lausanne University Hospital, Centro de Ciencias do Sistema Terrestre, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), University of Sheffield, Hochschule Mannheim - University of Applied Sciences, Laboratoire d'océanographie de Villefranche (LOV), Observatoire océanologique de Villefranche-sur-mer (OOVM), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Ministry of Earth Sciences [India], Woods Hole Research Center, Department of Earth and Environment [Boston], Boston University [Boston] (BU), Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Génétique et Ecologie des Virus, Génétique des Virus et Pathogénèse des Maladies Virales, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Department of Botany and Plant Pathology, Oregon State University (OSU), Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Bangor, Environm Ctr Wales, Biospherical Instruments Inc., Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Instituto Uruguayo de Meteorología, Javier Barrios Amorín 1488, CP 11200, Montevideo, Uruguay, Science Systems and Applications, Inc. [Hampton] (SSAI), National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), Centre de physique moléculaire optique et hertzienne (CPMOH), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CYRIC, Tohoku University [Sendai], The University of Tennessee [Knoxville], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC, The University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS), Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder] (INSTAAR), Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg (MOHp), Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidade de Lisboa (ULISBOA), University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California-University of California, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Universitá degli Studi dell’Insubria, University of Costa Rica, Météo France [Sainte-Clotilde], Météo France, University of Oxford [Oxford], Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), Huazhong Agricultural University, University of California, NMR and Molecular Imaging Laboratory [Mons], University of Mons [Belgium] (UMONS), Lausanne University Hospital [Switzerland], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de la Mer de Villefranche (IMEV), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Berkeley University of California (UC BERKELEY), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1, and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR)

Subjects
[SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography
Abstract

International audience; Large-scale climate patterns influenced temperature and weather patterns around the globe in 2011. In particular, a moderate-to-strong La Nina at the beginning of the year dissipated during boreal spring but reemerged during fall. The phenomenon contributed to historical droughts in East Africa, the southern United States, and northern Mexico, as well the wettest two-year period (2010-11) on record for Australia, particularly remarkable as this follows a decade-long dry period. Precipitation patterns in South America were also influenced by La Nina. Heavy rain in Rio de Janeiro in January triggered the country's worst floods and landslides in Brazil's history. The 2011 combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was the coolest since 2008, but was also among the 15 warmest years on record and above the 1981-2010 average. The global sea surface temperature cooled by 0.1 degrees C from 2010 to 2011, associated with cooling influences of La Nina. Global integrals of upper ocean heat content for 2011 were higher than for all prior years, demonstrating the Earth's dominant role of the oceans in the Earth's energy budget. In the upper atmosphere, tropical stratospheric temperatures were anomalously warm, while polar temperatures were anomalously cold. This led to large springtime stratospheric ozone reductions in polar latitudes in both hemispheres. Ozone concentrations in the Arctic stratosphere during March were the lowest for that period since satellite records began in 1979. An extensive, deep, and persistent ozone hole over the Antarctic in September indicates that the recovery to pre-1980 conditions is proceeding very slowly. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 2.10 ppm in 2011, and exceeded 390 ppm for the first time since instrumental records began. Other greenhouse gases also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 30% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Most ozone depleting substances continued to fall. The global net ocean carbon dioxide uptake for the 2010 transition period from El Nino to La Nina, the most recent period for which analyzed data are available, was estimated to be 1.30 Pg C yr(-1), almost 12% below the 29-year long-term average. Relative to the long-term trend, global sea level dropped noticeably in mid-2010 and reached a local minimum in 2011. The drop has been linked to the La Nina conditions that prevailed throughout much of 2010-11. Global sea level increased sharply during the second half of 2011. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2011 was well-below average, with a total of 74 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010, the North Atlantic was the only basin that experienced above-normal activity. For the first year since the widespread introduction of the Dvorak intensity-estimation method in the 1980s, only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity level-all in the Northwest Pacific basin. The Arctic continued to warm at about twice the rate compared with lower latitudes. Below-normal summer snowfall, a decreasing trend in surface albedo, and above-average surface and upper air temperatures resulted in a continued pattern of extreme surface melting, and net snow and ice loss on the Greenland ice sheet. Warmer-than-normal temperatures over the Eurasian Arctic in spring resulted in a new record-low June snow cover extent and spring snow cover duration in this region. In the Canadian Arctic, the mass loss from glaciers and ice caps was the greatest since GRACE measurements began in 2002, continuing a negative trend that began in 1987. New record high temperatures occurred at 20 m below the land surface at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, where measurements began in the late 1970s. Arctic sea ice extent in September 2011 was the second-lowest on record, while the extent of old ice (four and five years) reached a new record minimum that was just 19% of normal. On the opposite pole, austral winter and spring temperatures were more than 3 degrees C above normal over much of the Antarctic continent. However, winter temperatures were below normal in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, which continued the downward trend there during the last 15 years. In summer, an all-time record high temperature of -12.3 degrees C was set at the South Pole station on 25 December, exceeding the previous record by more than a full degree. Antarctic sea ice extent anomalies increased steadily through much of the year, from briefly setting a record low in April, to well above average in December. The latter trend reflects the dispersive effects of low pressure on sea ice and the generally cool conditions around the Antarctic perimeter.

Published
2012
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3. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment

Author

Hydrologie, Sub SIM overig, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., Fekete, B. M., Franssen, W., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hannah, D. M., Kim, H., Masaki, Y., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Hydrologie, Sub SIM overig, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Prudhomme, C., Giuntoli, I., Robinson, E. L., Clark, D. B., Arnell, N. W., Dankers, R., Fekete, B. M., Franssen, W., Gerten, D., Gosling, S. N., Hagemann, S., Hannah, D. M., Kim, H., Masaki, Y., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Wada, Y., and Wisser, D.

Published
2014

9. Global river nutrient export: A scenario analysis of past and future trends.

Author

Seitzinger, S. P., Mayorga, E., Bouwman, A. F., Kroeze, C., Beusen, A. H. W., Billen, G., Van Drechi, G., Dumont, E., Fekete, B. M., Garnier, J, and Harrison, A.

Subjects
BIOGEOCHEMICAL cycles, SOCIOECONOMIC factors, PHOSPHORUS, SILICA, WATER power
Abstract

An integrated modeling approach was used to connect socioeconomic factors and nutrient management to river export of nitrogen, phosphorus, silica and carbon based on an updated Global NEWS model. Past trends (1970-2000) and four future scenarios were analyzed. Differences among the scenarios for nutrient management in agriculture were a key factor affecting the magnitude and direction of change of future DIN river export. In contrast, connectivity and level of sewage treatment and P detergent use were more important for differences in DIP river export. Global particulate nutrient export was calculated to decrease for all scenarios, in part due to increases in dams for hydropower. Small changes in dissolved silica and dissolved organics were calculated for all scenarios at the global scale. Population changes were an important underlying factor for river export of all nutrients in all scenarios. Substantial regional differences were calculated for all nutrient elements and forms. South Asia alone accounted for over half of the global increase in DIN and DIP river export between 1970 and 2000 and in the subsequent 30 years under the Global Orchestration scenario (globally connected with reactive approach to environmental problems); DIN river export decreased in the Adapting Mosaic (globally connected with proactive approach) scenario by 2030, although DIP continued to increase. Risks for coastal eutrophication will likely continue to increase in many world regions for the foreseeable future due to both increases in magnitude and changes in nutrient ratios in river export. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2010
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10. Reconstructing 20th century global hydrography: a contribution to the Global Terrestrial Network- Hydrology (GTN-H).

Author

Wisser, D., Fekete, B. M., Vörösmarty, C. J., and Schumann, A. H.

Abstract

This paper presents a new reconstruction of the 20th Century global hydrography using fully coupled water balance and transport model in a flexible modeling framework. The modeling framework allows a high level of configurability both in terms of input forcings and model structure. Spatial and temporal trends in hydrological cycle components are assessed under "pre-industrial" conditions (without modern-day human activities) and contemporary conditions (incorporating the effects of irrigation and reservoir operations). The two sets of simulations allow the isolation of the trends arising from variations in the climate input driver alone and from human interventions. Our findings confirm that the expansion of irrigation and the construction has significantly and gradually impacted hydrological components in individual river basins. Variations in the volume of water entering the oceans, however, are governed by variations in the climate signal alone with human activities playing secondary role. Globally, we do find a significant trend in the terrestrial discharge over the last century. The largest impact of human intervention on the hydrological cycle arises from the operation of reservoirs that drastically changes the seasonal pattern of horizontal water transport in the river system and thereby directly and indirectly affects a number of processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2009
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11. The storage and aging of continental runoff in large reservoir systems of the world

Author

Holden, J., Vorosmarty, C. J., Marble, J., Sharma, K. P., Copeland, A. H., Fekete, B. M., and Lough, J. A.

Subjects
HYDROLOGY
Abstract

In this study we analyze the scope and potential impact of reservoirconstruction on the world's river systems. Water storage behind the global population of large dams represents a 700% increase in the standing stock of natural river water, with residence times for individual impoundments spanning less than one day to several years. The imprint of such storage persists downstream. The mouths of several large rivers show a reservoir-induced aging of continental runoff that exceeds three months. Globally, the mean age of river water has likely tripled to well over one month. From both case studies and global synthesis, we find that this aging can lead to significant changes in net water balance, flow regime, reoxygenation of surface waters, and sediment transport. The pandemic construction of large reservoirs represents an important component of the terrestrial water cycle and one that merits due consideration in future global change studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
1997

12. Short-term, linear, and non-linear local effects of the tides on the surface dynamics in a new, high-resolution model of the Mediterranean Sea circulation

Author

Giovanna Pisacane, Adriana Carillo, Gianmaria Sannino, Ernesto Napolitano, Emanuele Lombardi, Roberto Iacono, Maria Vittoria Struglia, Massimiliano Palma, Andrea Bargagli, Balázs M. Fekete, Palma, M., Iacono, R., Sannino, G., Bargagli, A., Carillo, A., Fekete, B. M., Lombardi, E., Napolitano, E., Pisacane, G., and Struglia, M. V.

Subjects
Mediterranean climate, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Plateau, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010505 oceanography, Baroclinity, Non-linear effects, Inversion (geology), Ocean modelling, Tides, Oceanography, 01 natural sciences, Mediterranean sea, 13. Climate action, Barotropic fluid, Bathymetry, 14. Life underwater, High-frequency variability, Channel (geography), Geology, Mediterranean Sea circulation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

The tides in the Mediterranean Sea are generally weaker than in other regions of the world ocean, but are locally intensified in passages with complex bathymetry, such as the Gibraltar Strait and the Sicily Channel. To date, a detailed understanding of their effects on the circulation, on the short time scales relevant to forecasting, is still missing, due to the lack of specific observations, and of basin-scale, numerical models explicitly accounting for the tidal forcing. The present investigation attempts to bridge this gap, using a newly developed forecasting model of the circulation of the Mediterranean Sea-Black Sea system that includes the effects of the main diurnal and semidiurnal astronomical tides. After validating the model barotropic tidal dynamics through comparison with the results of a tidal inversion software and historical data, a fully baroclinic run is analyzed, with focus on the Mediterranean Sea dynamics. The run covers the period 19 March–30 April 2018 and is initialized and forced with realistic fields produced by state-of-the-art operational models. After verifying that the modelled circulation and hydrology agree with available remote and in situ observations, attention is focused on short-time effects of the tidal forcing on the local circulation. Tides are found to significantly modulate transports not only across the Strait of Gibraltar and the Sicily Channel, as expected, but also across the Corsica Channel and the Otranto Strait. Tidal effects also modify relevant features of the circulation inside the basin, inducing local modulations of some of the main currents and exciting topographic waves that eventually get trapped over shallow bathymetric features, producing diurnal rotations of the flow patterns. Examples of the latter dynamics are found over the Adventure Bank and the Malta Plateau, in the Sicily Channel, and in the eastern portions of the Corsica Channel and the Otranto Strait. Furthermore, in several locations (Sicily Channel, Corsica Channel, Messina Strait, North Adriatic Sea), spectral analysis of the mean kinetic energy reveals the presence of spectral peaks corresponding to periods of about 8 and 6h, which can only be interpreted as harmonics (overtides and compound tides) of the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal components, generated through non-linear interactions. This shows that, contrary to a widespread assumption, tidal effects in the Mediterranean cannot be linearly superimposed on the basin circulation.

Published
2020
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