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Objectives. To analyze the budget impact of upadacitinib (UPA) 15 mg + methotrexate (MTX) for the treatment of moderate-to-severe rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in patients with an inadequate response to conventional disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (cDMARD-IR) from the perspective of social security and the private health sector in Argentina. Materials and methods. A budget impact analysis model was developed for a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 adults with health insurance coverage who were diagnosed with RA over a 5-year time horizon. The model parameters were obtained through literature review and validated by local experts. The costs are expressed in 2024 US dollars (USD). Results. The introduction of UPA 15 mg + MTX for the treatment of moderate-to-severe RA and cDMARD-IR resulted in minimal increase, with a five-year total cumulative incremental cost of USD 1,855 for social security and USD 1,812 for the private health sector, representing 2% of the total budget. The acquisition cost of UPA was the most influential variable in the sensitivity analysis. Conclusions. The introduction of UPA 15 mg + MTX for the treatment of moderate-to-severe RA and cDMARD-IR can provide an effective treatment option with a minimal increase in costs for the healthcare system in Argentina, which is especially important in developing countries where health system budgets are more limited. Providing evidence-based estimates is a valuable tool for informing healthcare policies and can help policymakers make informed decisions about the allocation of healthcare resources to improve patient outcomes while also managing costs.

IntroductionTobacco use has significant health consequences in Latin America, and while studies have examined the overall impact, the gender-specific effects have not been thoroughly researched. Understanding these differences is crucial for effective tobacco control policies. The objective of this study was to explore the differences in tobacco-attributable disease and economic burden between men and women in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru.MethodsWe used a previously validated economic model to quantify the impact of tobacco-related illnesses, including morbidity, mortality, healthcare costs, productivity losses, informal care expenses, and DALYs, by gender and age. We utilized data from national surveys, records, studies, and expert opinions to populate the model.ResultsIn 2020, there were 351,000 smoking-attributable deaths. Men accounted for 69% and women 31%. Ecuador and Mexico had the highest male-to-female death ratio, while Peru and Chile had the smallest disparities. 2.3 million tobacco-related disease events occurred, with 65% in men and 35% in women. Ecuador and Mexico had higher disease rates among men, while Peru had a more balanced ratio. Regarding DALYs, men lost 6.3 million due to tobacco, while women lost 3.3 million, primarily from COPD, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Brazil and Mexico had the highest DALY losses for both genders. Costa Rica had a lower male-to-female tobacco use prevalence ratio but ranked second in deaths, disease events, and DALYs attributed to tobacco. Colombia had a unique pattern with a male-to-female death ratio of 2.08 but a higher ratio for disease events. The health systems spent $22.8 billion to treat tobacco-attributable diseases, with a male-to-female cost ratio 2.15. Ecuador showed the greatest gender cost difference, while Peru had the lowest. Productivity loss due to tobacco was $16.2 billion, with Ecuador and Mexico exhibiting the highest gender disparities and Peru the lowest. Informal care costs amounted to $10.8 billion, with men incurring higher costs in Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Mexico.DiscussionTobacco causes significant health and economic burdens in Latin America, with gender-based differences. There is a need for gender-disaggregated data to improve tobacco control policies.

Abstract: Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a major source of added sugar and are associated with noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) such as obesity and diabetes. This study assessed the impact of SSBs consumption on disease burden in Brazil, including deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and healthcare costs. A 3-stage methodology was used to assess the direct effects of SSBs on diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and body mass index (BMI), along with the influence of BMI on disease incidence. These assessments were then used to estimate the economic and health burden using population-attributable factors. Results showed that 2.7% and 11% of adult and children overweight/obesity cases were attributable to SSBs, respectively. SSBs consumption in Brazil led to 1,814,486 cases, 12,942 deaths, 362,088 DALYs, and USD 2,915.91 million in medical costs related to diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, oncological diseases, and other NCDs. Urgent implementation of public policies is crucial to address the consumption of SSBs, recognized as a key risk factor for NCDs.

Objetivo. Estimar la carga de enfermedad y económica atribuible al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en El Salvador. Métodos. Se utilizó un modelo de riesgos comparativos para estimar los efectos en muertes, eventos de salud, años perdidos por muerte prematura y discapacidad (AVAD), y costos médicos directos atribuibles al consumo de bebidas azucaradas. Resultados. Un total de 520 muertes (8 cada 100 000 individuos), 214 082 eventos en salud (3 220 cada 100 000 individuos) y 16 643 AVAD podrían ser atribuibles al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en El Salvador, lo que representa $69,35 millones (dólar americano) en costos médicos directos para el año 2020. En particular, los eventos de diabetes tipo 2 (DBT2) atribuibles al consumo de bebidas azucaradas podrían llegar a representar más del 20% del total de casos de DBT2 para el país. Conclusión. Un elevado número de muertes, eventos y costos podrían atribuirse al consumo de bebidas azucaradas en El Salvador

Abstract Objective Our study analyzes the cost-effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Mexico, and Peru. Methods Using a previously published SVEIR model, we analyzed the impact of a vaccination campaign (2021) from a national healthcare perspective. The primary outcomes were quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lost and total costs. Other outcomes included COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and life years. We applied a discount rate of 3% for health outcomes. We modeled a realistic vaccination campaign in each country (the realistic country-specific campaign). Additionally, we assessed a standard campaign (similar, “typical“ for all countries), and an optimized campaign (similar in all countries with higher but plausible population coverage). One-way deterministic sensitivity analyses were performed. Findings Vaccination was health improving as well as cost-saving in almost all countries and scenarios. Our analysis shows that vaccination in this group of countries prevented 573,141 deaths (508,826 standard; 685,442 optimized) and gained 5.07 million QALYs (4.53 standard; 6.03 optimized). Despite the incremental costs of vaccination campaigns, they had a total net cost saving to the health system of US$16.29 billion (US$16.47 standard; US$18.58 optimized). The realistic (base case) vaccination campaign in Chile was the only scenario, which was not cost saving, but it was still highly cost-effective with an ICER of US$22 per QALY gained. Main findings were robust in the sensitivity analyses. Interpretation The COVID-19 vaccination campaign in seven Latin American and Caribbean countries -that comprise nearly 80% of the region- was beneficial for population health and was also cost-saving or highly cost-effective.

Con el objetivo de priorizar políticas públicas para disminuir el consumo de bebidas azucaradas en Argentina, Brasil, El Salvador y Trinidad y Tobago e identificar las necesidades de información relacionadas con la carga de enfermedad atribuible a su consumo se realizó un diálogo de políticas en el que participaron miembros de gobierno, organizaciones de la sociedad civil, investigadores y comunicadores de países de Latinoamérica y el Caribe. Se llevaron a cabo exposiciones y talleres deliberativos utilizándose herramientas de recolección de datos semiestructuradas y discusiones grupales facilitadas. Las intervenciones priorizadas fueron el incremento de impuestos, el etiquetado frontal, la restricción de la publicidad, promoción y patrocinio y las modificaciones del entorno escolar. La principal barrera percibida fue la interferencia de la industria alimentaria. La realización de este diálogo de decisores permitió la identificación de las políticas públicas prioritarias para disminuir el consumo de bebidas azucaradas en la región.

Abstract Background Preference heterogeneity in health valuation has become a topic of greater discussion among health technology assessment agencies. To better understand heterogeneity within a national population, valuation studies may identify latent groups that place different absolute and relative importance (i.e., scale and taste parameters) on the attributes of health profiles. Objective Using discrete choice responses from a Peruvian valuation study, we estimated EQ-5D-5L values on a quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) scale accounting for latent heterogeneity in scale and taste, as well as controlling heteroskedasticity at task level variation. Method We conducted a series of latent class analyses, each including the 20 main effects of the EQ-5D-5L and a power function that relaxes the constant proportionality assumption (i.e., discounting) between value and lifespan. Taste class membership was conditional on respondent-specific characteristics and their experience with the composite time trade-off (cTTO) tasks. Scale class membership was conditional on behavioral characteristics such as survey duration and self-stated difficulty level in understanding tasks. Each analysis allowed the scale factor to vary by task type and completion time (i.e., heteroskedasticity). Results The results indicated three taste classes: a quality-of-life oriented class (33.35%) that placed the highest value on levels of severity, a length-of-life oriented class (26.72%) that placed the highest value on lifespan, and a middle class (39.71%) with health attribute effects lower than the quality class and lifespan effect lower than the length-of-life oriented class. The EQ-5D-5L values ranged from − 2.11 to 0.86 (quality-of-life oriented class), from − 0.38 to 1.02 (middle class), and from 0.36 to 1.01 (length-of-life oriented class). The likelihood of being a member of the quality-of-life class was highly dependent on whether the respondent completed the cTTO tasks (p-value

Abstract Background Informal care is a key element of health care and well-being for society, yet it is scarcely visible and rarely studied in health economic evaluations. This study aims to estimate the time use and cost associated with informal care for cardiovascular diseases, pneumonia and ten different cancers in eight Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru). Methods We carried out an exhaustive literature review on informal caregivers’ time use, focusing on the selected diseases. We developed a survey for professional caregivers and conducted expert interviews to validate this data in the local context. We used an indirect estimate through the interpolation of the available data, for those cases in which we do not found reliable information. We used the proxy good method to estimate the monetary value of the use of time of informal care. National household surveys databases were processed to obtain the average wage per hour of a proxy of informal caregiver. Estimates were expressed in 2020 US dollars. Results The study estimated approximately 1,900 million hours of informal care annually and $ 4,300 million per year in average informal care time cost for these fifteen diseases and eight countries analyzed. Cardiovascular diseases accounted for an informal care burden that ranged from 374 to 555 h per year, while cancers varied from 512 to 1,825 h per year. The informal care time cost share on GDP varied from 0.26% (Mexico) to 1.38% (Brazil), with an average of 0.82% in the studied American countries. Informal care time cost represents between 16 and 44% of the total economic cost (direct medical and informal care cost) associated with health conditions. Conclusions The study shows that there is a significant informal care economic burden -frequently overlooked- in different chronic and acute diseases in Latin American countries; and highlights the relevance of including the economic value of informal care in economic evaluations of healthcare.

Abstract Health economic evaluations are comparative analyses of alternative courses of action in terms of their costs and consequences. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement, published in 2013, was created to ensure health economic evaluations are identifiable, interpretable, and useful for decision making. It was intended as guidance to help authors report accurately which health interventions were being compared and in what context, how the evaluation was undertaken, what the findings were, and other details that may aid readers and reviewers in interpretation and use of the study. The new CHEERS 2022 statement replaces previous CHEERS reporting guidance. It reflects the need for guidance that can be more easily applied to all types of health economic evaluation, new methods and developments in the field, as well as the increased role of stakeholder involvement including patients and the public. It is also broadly applicable to any form of intervention intended to improve the health of individuals or the population, whether simple or complex, and without regard to context (such as health care, public health, education, social care, etc). This summary article presents the new CHEERS 2022 28-item checklist and recommendations for each item. The CHEERS 2022 statement is primarily intended for researchers reporting economic evaluations for peer reviewed journals as well as the peer reviewers and editors assessing them for publication. However, we anticipate familiarity with reporting requirements will be useful for analysts when planning studies. It may also be useful for health technology assessment bodies seeking guidance on reporting, as there is an increasing emphasis on transparency in decision making.

Objective Overweight and obesity are important contributors to the non-communicable disease burden. The consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), cardiovascular disease, cancer and other conditions. The objective of this study was to estimate the burden of disease attributable to the consumption of SSBs and the costs to the healthcare systems in Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago.Design Following a systematic review of models, a comparative risk assessment framework was developed to estimate the health and economic impact associated with the consumption of SSBs.Setting Argentina, Brazil, El Salvador, and Trinidad and Tobago.Participants Overall population.Primary and secondary outcome measures The model estimated the effects of SSB consumption on health through two causal pathways: one mediated by body mass index (BMI) and health conditions associated with BMI and another that reflected the independent effects of SSB consumption on T2DM and cardiovascular diseases.Results The model results indicated that for all four countries, in 1 year, SSB consumption was associated with 18 000 deaths (3.2% of the total disease-related deaths), seven million disease events (3.3% of the total disease-related events), a half-million DALYs and US$2 billion in direct medical costs. This included 1.5 million cases of overweight and obesity in children/adolescents (12% of the excess weight cases) and 2.8 million cases in adults (2.8%); 2.2 million cases of type 2 diabetes (19%); 200 000 cases of heart disease (3.8%); 124 000 strokes (3.9%); 116 000 cases of musculoskeletal disease (0.2%); 102 000 cases of kidney disease (0.9%); and 45 000 episodes of asthma (0.4%). The Trinidad and Tobago population were the most affected by disease events.Conclusions The study results indicate that the consumption of SSBs is associated with a significant burden of disease and death in Latin America and the Caribbean.

BackgroundApproximately two-thirds of Argentine adults are overweight or obese, and 11% have diabetes. Over the last two decades, all population groups have increased their consumption of ultra-processed foods and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). We aimed to estimate the disease burden-deaths, events, and costs to the health system-attributed to SSB consumption in Argentina.MethodsWe used a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the health and economic impacts that would be avoided in a scenario without sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption. We calculated the direct effects on diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and BMI, and then estimated the effects of BMI on disease incidence. Finally, we applied the population attributable factor to calculate the health and economic burden avoided in Argentina in 2020.ResultsOur model estimated that about 4,425 deaths, 110,000 healthy life years lost to premature death and disability, more than 520,000 cases of overweight and obesity in adults, and 774,000 in children and adolescents would be attributed to SSB Consumption in Argentina. This disease burden corresponds to 23% of type-2 diabetes cases and other significant proportions of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The overweight and obesity costs attributable to SSB totaled approximately $47 million in adults and $15 million in children and adolescents.ConclusionA significant number of disease cases, deaths, and health care costs could be attributed to SSB consumption in Argentina. Implementing measures to reduce the sugar content in beverages is a pending debt for the country and could lead to measurable improvements in population health, especially among children and adolescents.

Abstract Background The CardioMEMS® sensor is a wireless pulmonary artery pressure device used for monitoring symptomatic heart failure (HF). The use of CardioMEMS was associated with a reduction of hospitalizations of HF patients, but the acquisition cost could be high in low-and-middle income countries. Evidence of cost-effectiveness is needed to help decision-makers to allocate resources according to “value for money”. This study is aimed at estimating the cost-effectiveness of CardioMEMS used in HF patients from the third-party payer perspective -Social Security (SS) and Private Sector (PS)- in Argentina. Methods A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of CardioMEMS versus usual medical care over a lifetime horizon. The model was applied to a hypothetical population of patients with HF functional class III with at least one hospitalization in the previous 12 months. The main outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). To populate the model we retrieved clinical, epidemiological and utility parameters from the literature, whilst direct medical costs were estimated through a micro-costing approach (exchange rate USD 1 = ARS 76.95). Uncertainties in all parameters were assessed by deterministic, probabilistic and scenario sensitivity analysis. Results Compared with the usual medical care, CardioMEMS increased quality-adjusted life years (QALY) by 0.37 and increased costs per patient by ARS 1,081,703 for SS and ARS 919,051 for PS. The resultant ICER was ARS 2,937,756 per QALY and ARS 2,496,015 per QALY for SS and PS, respectively. ICER was most sensitive to the hazard ratio of HF hospital admission and the acquisition price of CardioMEMS. The probability that CardioMEMS is cost-effective at one (ARS 700,473), three (ARS 2,101,419,) and five (ARS 3,502,363) Gross Domestic Product per capita is 0.6, 17.9 and 64.1% for SS and 5.4, 33.3 and 73.2% for PS. Conclusions CardioMEMS was more effective and more costly than usual care in class III HF patients. Since in Argentina there is no current explicit threshold, the final decision to determine its cost-effectiveness will depend on the willingness-to-pay for QALYs in each health subsector.

Abstract Background Around 184,000 deaths per year could be attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) consumption worldwide. Epidemiological and decision models are important tools to estimate disease burden. The purpose of this study was to identify models to assess the burden of diseases attributable to SSBs consumption or the potential impact of health interventions. Methods We carried out a systematic review and literature search up to August 2018. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted, and assessed the quality of the included studies through an exhaustive description of each model’s features. Discrepancies were solved by consensus. The inclusion criteria were epidemiological or decision models evaluating SSBs health interventions or policies, and descriptive SSBs studies of decision models. Studies published before 2003, cost of illness studies and economic evaluations based on individual patient data were excluded. Results We identified a total of 2766 references. Out of the 40 included studies, 45% were models specifically developed to address SSBs, 82.5% were conducted in high-income countries and 57.5% considered a health system perspective. The most common model’s outcomes were obesity/overweight (82.5%), diabetes (72.5%), cardiovascular disease (60%), mortality (52.5%), direct medical costs (57.35%), and healthy years -DALYs/QALYs- (40%) attributable to SSBs. 67.5% of the studies modelled the effect of SSBs on the outcomes either entirely through BMI or through BMI plus diabetes independently. Models were usually populated with inputs from national surveys -such us obesity prevalence, SSBs consumption-; and vital statistics (67.5%). Only 55% reported results by gender and 40% included children; 30% presented results by income level, and 25% by selected vulnerable groups. Most of the models evaluated at least one policy intervention to reduce SSBs consumption (92.5%), taxes being the most frequent strategy (75%). Conclusions There is a wide range of modelling approaches of different complexity and information requirements to evaluate the burden of disease attributable to SSBs. Most of them take into account the impact on obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease, mortality, and economic impact. Incorporating these tools to different countries could result in useful information for decision makers and the general population to promote a deeper implementation of policies to reduce SSBs consumption. PROSPERO protocol number CRD42020121025 .

INTRODUCCIÓN: Los modelos de simulación para COVID-19 requieren una serie de parámetros epidemiológicos que varían en base a cuestiones propias de cada región y al momento de la pandemia que se esté atravesando. OBJETIVO: Esta revisión rápida presenta los parámetros epidemiológicos esenciales potencialmente utilizables en Argentina. MÉTODOS: Se realizó una búsqueda en las principales bases de datos y en buscadores de artículos en estado de preimpresión (preprints) de parámetros relacionados con la propagación del virus y evolución de la enfermedad, y el uso del sistema de salud. Para revisar los artículos seleccionados se utilizó una herramienta de evaluación de calidad apropiada al diseño del estudio. RESULTADOS: De las variables relacionadas con la propagación y evolución; el período de incubación es de 5,8 días (intervalos de confianza [IC95%]: 4,83-6,85), el período de infecciosidad es de 6,25 días (IC95%: 5,09-7,51), el número básico de reproducción es de 3,32 (IC95%: 3,24-3,39), y la tasa de fatalidad en pacientes infectados fue de 0,64% (IC95%: 0,5-0,78). De las variables relacionadas con el uso del sistema de salud, el tiempo de internación hospitalaria es de 5 días (rango intercuartílico [RIC]: 3-9), el tiempo de internación en una unidad de cuidados intensivos (UCI) es de 7 días (RIC: 4-11), el porcentaje de pacientes internados que requieren de UCI es de 26% (IC95%: 20-33) y, de estos, el porcentaje que requieren de ventilación mecánica es de 69% (IC95%: 61-75). DISCUSIÒN: Estudios recientes y datos de acceso públicos a nivel nacional muestran valores distintos a los relevados de la bibliografía internacional. La información recolectada en este trabajo puede contribuir a informar futuros modelamientos y tableros de control para predecir la dinámica de la epidemia en Argentina.

The global impact of COVID-19 has challenged health systems across the world. This situation highlighted the need to develop policies based on scientific evidence to prepare the health systems and mitigate the pandemic. In this scenario, governments were urged to predict the impact of the measures they were implementing, how they related to the population's behavior, and the capacity of health systems to respond to the pandemic. The overarching aim of this research was to develop a customizable and open-source tool to predict the impact of the expansion of COVID-19 on the level of preparedness of the health systems of different Latin American and the Caribbean countries, with two main objectives. Firstly, to estimate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the preparedness and response capacity of health systems in those countries, based on different scenarios and public policies implemented to control, mitigate, or suppress the spread of the epidemic. Secondly, to facilitate policy makers' decisions by allowing the model to adjust its parameters according to the specific pandemic trajectory and policy context. How many infections and deaths are estimated per day?; When are the peaks of cases and deaths expected, according to the different scenarios?; Which occupancy rate will ICU services have along the epidemiological curve?; When is the optimal time increase restrictions in order to prevent saturation of ICU beds?, are some of the key questions that the model can respond, and is publicly accessible through the following link: http://shinyapps.iecs.org.ar/modelo-covid19/. This open-access and open code tool is based on a SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered). Using a deterministic epidemiological model, it allows to frame potential scenarios for long periods, providing valuable information on the dynamics of transmission and how it could impact on health systems through multiple customized configurations adapted to specific characteristics of each country.

Background Centrifugal-flow pumps are novel treatment options for patients with advanced heart failure (HF). This study estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of centrifugal-flow pumps for patients with advanced HF in Argentina. Methods Two Markov models were developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a centrifugal-flow pump as destination therapy (DT) in patients with contraindication for heart transplantation, and as bridge-to-transplant (BTT), with a lifetime horizon using the third-party payer Social Security (SS) and Private Sector (PS) perspectives. Clinical, epidemiological, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) parameters were retrieved from the literature. Direct medical costs were estimated through a micro-costing approach (exchange rate USD 1 = ARS 59.95). Results The centrifugal-flow pump as a DT increased the per patient QALYs by 3.5 and costs by ARS 8.1 million in both the SS and PS, with an ICER of ARS 2.3 million per QALY. Corresponding values for a centrifugal-flow pump as BTT were 0.74 QALYs and more than ARS 8 million, yielding ICERs of ARS 11 million per QALY (highly dependent on waiting times). For the 1, 3, and 5 GDP per QALY thresholds, the probability of a centrifugal-flow pump to be cost-effective for DT/BTT was around 2%/0%, 40%/0%, and 80%/1%, respectively. Conclusion The centrifugal-flow pump prolongs life and improves the quality of life at significantly higher costs. As in Argentina there is no current explicit cost-effectiveness threshold, the final decision on reimbursement will depend on the willingness to pay in each subsector. Nevertheless, the centrifugal-flow pump as a DT was more cost-effective than as a BTT.

Tackling cancer is a major challenge right on the global level. Europe is only the tip of an iceberg of cancer around the world. Prosperous developed countries share the same problems besetting Europe–and the countries and regions with fewer resources and less propitious conditions are in many cases struggling often heroically against a growing tide of disease. This paper offers a view on these geographically wider, but essentially similar, challenges, and on the prospects for and barriers to better results in this ceaseless battle. A series of panels have been organized by the European Alliance for Personalised Medicine (EAPM) to identify different aspects of cancer care around the globe. There is significant diversity in key issues such as NGS, RWE, molecular diagnostics, and reimbursement in different regions. In all, it leads to disparities in access and diagnostics, patients’ engagement, and efforts for a better understanding of cancer.

Abstract Background Around 6% of total deaths are related to alcohol consumption worldwide. Mathematical models are important tools to estimate disease burden and to assess the cost-effectiveness of interventions to address this burden. Methods We carried out a systematic review on models, searching main health literature databases up to July 2017. Pairs of reviewers independently selected, extracted data and assessed the quality of the included studies. Discrepancies were resolved by consensus. We selected those models exploring: a) disease burden (main metrics being attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life years, quality-adjusted life years) or b) economic evaluations of health interventions or policies, based on models including the aforementioned outcomes. We grouped models into broad families according to their common central methodological approach. Results Out of 4295 reports identified, 63 met our inclusion criteria and were categorized in three main model families that were described in detail: 1) State transition -i.e Markov- models, 2) Life Table-based models and 3) Attributable fraction-based models. Most studies pertained to the latter one (n = 29, 48.3%). A few miscellaneous models could not be framed into these families. Conclusions Our findings can be useful for future researchers and decision makers planning to undertake alcohol-related disease burden or cost-effectiveness studies. We found several different families of models. Countries interested in adopting relevant public health measures may choose or adapt the one deemed most convenient, based on the availability of existing data at the local level, burden of work, and public health and economic outcomes of interest.

El consumo de alcohol es uno de los principales factores de riesgo. Para relevar las condiciones previas al establecimiento de políticas públicas orientadas a disminuir el consumo de alcohol en Argentina, tres objetivos: a) caracterizar la demanda y oferta de bebidas alcohólicas; b) evaluar la situación normativa respecto de políticas de control de publicidad, promoción y patrocinio, y las pautas de publicidad televisiva; c) qué modelos de carga de enfermedad atribuible y costo-efectividad de las intervenciones podrían ser aplicables. MÉTODOS: Se analizaron datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Gasto de los Hogares 2004/5 y 2012/3 y de la base Euromonitor Internacional. Se examinaron el marco normativo y las acciones televisivas de publicidad, promoción y patrocinio. Se revisó la literatura sobre modelos de carga de enfermedad y costo-efectividad de intervenciones. RESULTADOS: El consumo de bebidas alcohólicas no se entre 2004/5 y 2012/3, y la industria está muy concentrada. El marco de regulación de la publicidad es laxo; más de la mitad de los avisos de TV se emiten en horario diurno, por lo que se expone a menores y se incumplen los acuerdos internacionales subscritos. Hay tres enfoques principales de modelamiento epidemiológico y económico que podrían ser aplicables. CONCLUSIONES: Se caracterizaron aspectos económicos, jurídico-legales y epidemiológicos útiles para impulsar una agenda pública orientada a disminuir el consumo de alcohol.

Objetivos. Estimar la carga de enfermedad asociada al consumo de tabaco en Paraguay y evaluar el potencial efecto económico y sanitario del aumento de precio mediante impuestos. Materiales y métodos. Se diseñó un modelo de microsimulación de Monte Carlo que incorporó la historia natural, costos y calidad de vida de enfermedades asociadas al tabaquismo para el 2015. Asimismo, se estimó el impacto en varios escenarios de aumento de impuestos sobre la prevalencia de tabaquismo y la recaudación fiscal. Resultados. 3354 personas mueren al año en Paraguay por consecuencia del tabaquismo. El 19 % de las muertes son por enfermedad isquémica cardíaca, el 15 % por accidentes cerebrovasculares. El 77 % de las muertes por enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica y el 83 % de cáncer de pulmón son atribuibles al tabaquismo. Estas enfermedades en Paraguay representan un costo médico directo anual de más de 1,5 x 106 millones de guaraníes, mientras la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos apenas llega a cubrir un 20 % de este gasto. Un aumento en el precio de los cigarrillos del 50 % vía impuestos, podría llevar a evitar 2507 muertes en diez años y generar recursos por 2,4 x 106 millones por ahorro en gastos sanitarios y aumento de recaudación. Conclusiones. El costo y la carga de enfermedad asociado al consumo de tabaco en el sistema de salud es elevado en Paraguay. Un aumento del precio de los cigarrillos a través de los impuestos tendría importantes beneficios sanitarios y podría compensar parcialmente los costos sanitarios.

Objetivo. Explorar las motivaciones y expectativas de los usuarios del Programa de Estaciones Saludables en la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires y evaluar su potencial impacto sanitario. Métodos. Se realizaron entrevistas en profundidad (n = 34) y una encuesta autoadministrada (n = 605) a usuarios del programa. Se desarrolló un modelo epidemiológico para estimar el impacto del programa sobre los eventos cardiovasculares y los años de vida ajustados por discapacidad (AVAD). Resultados. Los principales factores motivadores para el uso de las estaciones saludables fueron la accesibilidad geográfica, económica (servicios gratuitos) y la satisfacción con la atención recibida. El 14,4% (intervalos de confianza del 95% [IC95%] 10,3–18,5%) de los usuarios hipertensos y el 24,8% (IC95% 17,6–32,0%) de los diabéticos informó haberse enterado de sus valores alterados en las estaciones saludables. Más de la mitad de los encuestados reportó alguna mejora de conocimientos sobre los beneficios de realizar actividad física y una alimentación saludable; esto fue más frecuente entre los usuarios más jóvenes, de menor nivel educativo, usuarios del sistema público de salud, usuarios de estaciones saludables de la zona sur y los que tenían algún factor de riesgo cardiometabólico (p

Background. Budget impact analyses (BIAs) are an essential part of a comprehensive economic assessment of a health care intervention and are increasingly required by reimbursement authorities as part of a listing or reimbursement submission. Objectives: The objective of this report was to present updated guidance on methods for those undertaking such analyses or for those reviewing the results of such analyses. This update was needed, in part, because of developments in BIA methods as well as a growing interest, particularly in emerging markets, in matters related to affordability and population health impacts of health care interventions. Methods. The Task Force was approved by the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Health Sciences Policy Council and appointed by its Board of Directors. Members were experienced developers or users of BIAs; worked in academia and industry and as advisors to governments; and came from several countries in North America and South America, Oceania, Asia, and Europe. The Task Force solicited comments on the drafts from a core group of external reviewers and, more broadly, from the membership of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research. Results. The Task Force recommends that the design of a BIA for a new health care intervention should take into account relevant features of the health care system, possible access restrictions, the anticipated uptake of the new intervention, and the use and effects of the current and new interventions. The key elements of a BIA include estimating the size of the eligible population, the current mix of treatments and the expected mix after the introduction of the new intervention, the cost of the treatment mixes, and any changes expected in condition-related costs. Where possible, the BIA calculations should be performed by using a simple cost calculator approach because of its ease of use for budget holders. In instances, however, in which the changes in eligible population size, disease severity mix, or treatment patterns cannot be credibly captured by using the cost calculator approach, a cohort or patient-level condition-specific model may be used to estimate the budget impact of the new intervention, accounting appropriately for those entering and leaving the eligible population over time. In either case, the BIA should use data that reflect values specific to a particular decision maker’s population. Sensitivity analysis should be of alternative scenarios chosen from the perspective of the decision maker. The validation of the model should include at least face validity with decision makers and verification of the calculations. Data sources for the BIA should include published clinical trial estimates and comparator studies for the efficacy and safety of the current and new interventions as well as the decision maker’s own population for the other parameter estimates, where possible. Other data sources include the use of published data, well-recognized local or national statistical information, and, in special circumstances, expert opinion. Reporting of the BIA should provide detailed information about the input parameter values and calculations at a level of detail that would allow another modeler to replicate the analysis. The outcomes of the BIA should be presented in the format of interest to health care decision makers. In a computer program, options should be provided for different categories of costs to be included or excluded from the analysis. Conclusions. We recommend a framework for the BIA, provide guidance on the acquisition and use of data, and offer a common reporting format that will promote standardization and transparency. Adherence to these good research practice principles would not necessarily supersede jurisdiction-specific BIA guidelines but may support and enhance local recommendations or serve as a starting point for payers wishing to promulgate methodology guidelines.

Background The measurement of health benefits is a key issue in health economic evaluations. There is very scarce empirical literature exploring the differences of using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) or disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as benefit metrics and their potential impact in decision-making. Methods Two previously published models delivering outputs in QALYs, were adapted to estimate DALYs: a Markov model for human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination, and a pneumococcal vaccination deterministic model (PNEUMO). Argentina, Chile, and the United Kingdom studies were used, where local EQ-5D social value weights were available to provide local QALY weights. A primary study with descriptive vignettes was done (n = 73) to obtain EQ-5D data for all health states included in both models. Several scenario analyses were carried-out to evaluate the relative importance of using different metrics (DALYS or QALYs) to estimate health benefits on these economic evaluations. Results QALY gains were larger than DALYs avoided in all countries for HPV, leading to more favorable decisions using the former. With discounting and age-weighting – scenario with greatest differences in all countries – incremental DALYs avoided represented the 75%, 68%, and 43% of the QALYs gained in Argentina, Chile, and United Kingdom respectively. Differences using QALYs or DALYs were less consistent and sometimes in the opposite direction for PNEUMO. These differences, similar to other widely used assumptions, could directly influence decision-making using usual gross domestic products (GDPs) per capita per DALY or QALY thresholds. Conclusion We did not find evidence that contradicts current practice of many researchers and decision-makers of using QALYs or DALYs interchangeably. Differences attributed to the choice of metric could influence final decisions, but similarly to other frequently used assumptions.

Abstract Background Cervical cancer (CC) and genital warts (GW) are a significant public health issue in Venezuela. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the two available vaccines, bivalent and quadrivalent, against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) in Venezuelan girls in order to inform decision-makers. Methods A previously published Markov cohort model, informed by the best available evidence, was adapted to the Venezuelan context to evaluate the effects of vaccination on health and healthcare costs from the perspective of the healthcare payer in an 11-year-old girls cohort of 264,489. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 5%. Eight scenarios were analyzed to depict the cost-effectiveness under alternative vaccine prices, exchange rates and dosing schemes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Results Compared to screening only, the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were cost-saving in all scenarios, avoiding 2,310 and 2,143 deaths, 4,781 and 4,431 CCs up to 18,459 GW for the quadrivalent vaccine and gaining 4,486 and 4,395 discounted QALYs respectively. For both vaccines, the main determinants of variations in the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio after running deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were transition probabilities, vaccine and cancer-treatment costs and HPV 16 and 18 distribution in CC cases. When comparing vaccines, none of them was consistently more cost-effective than the other. In sensitivity analyses, for these comparisons, the main determinants were GW incidence, the level of cross-protection and, for some scenarios, vaccines costs. Conclusions Immunization with the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccines showed to be cost-saving or cost-effective in Venezuela, falling below the threshold of one Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (104,404 VEF) per QALY gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results.

Objectives. To calculate the burden of smoking-related disease and evaluate the potential economic and health impact of tax-induced cigarette price increase in Peru. Materials and methods. A microsimulation model was used to estimate smoking-attributable impact on mortality, quality of life, and costs associated with heart and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, lung cancer, and another nine cancers. Three scenarios, involving increased taxes, were evaluated. Results. A yearly total of 16,719 deaths, 6,926 cancer diagnoses, 7,936 strokes, and 7,548 hospital admissions due to cardiovascular disease can be attributed to smoking in Peru. Similarly, 396,069 years of life are lost each year from premature death and disability, and the cost of treating smoking-attributable health issues rises to 2,500 million soles (PEN 2015). Currently, taxes on tobacco cover only 9.1% of this expense. If cigarette prices were to increase by 50% over the next 10 years, 13,391 deaths, 6,210 cardiovascular events, and 5,361 new cancers could be prevented, representing an economic benefit of 3,145 million (PEN) in savings in health costs and increases in tax revenues. Conclusions. Smoking-attributable burden of disease and costs to the health system are very high in Peru. Higher cigarette taxes could have substantial health and economic benefits for the country.

Background Tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable deaths worldwide. The objective of this study was to estimate the burden of disease attributable to tobacco use and to evaluate the potential impact of increasing cigarette´s price through taxes in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay-countries which encompass 84% of Latin America´s population. Methods A microsimulation model was used to estimate the chances people have to get sick or die from 17 smoking-related conditions. An extensive review was conducted to identify key epidemiological and cost data relevant to each country. Results Every year, smoking is responsible for 293,364 deaths, 862,484 COPD cases (Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease), 832,791 cardiovascular events, 131,037 cancer diagnoses and 28,098 USD millions in direct medical costs to the health systems in these countries. The proportion of health expenditure that these burden represent range from 3.2% in Honduras to 16,6% in Uruguay; and the proportion of the total GDP (Gross Domestic Product) ranged from 0.3% to 1.5% respectively. The percentage of attributable health expenditures recovered through tobacco taxes also varies widely: Mexico, Honduras, Argentina and Chile recover over 45%; in Ecuador tax revenues reach 40%; Brazil, Costa Rica, Paraguay and Uruguay recover less than 30%, and Bolivia, Colombia and Peru, less than 10%. Different scenarios of cigarette price increases through taxes were modeled for each country. An example -the case for Brazil- is shown in the table below. Cigarette price increase through taxes 25% 50% 100% Avoided deaths 68,241 136,482 272,964 Avoided events 336,099 672,199 1,344,398 Direct costs avoided (USD millions) 4,866 9,732 19,464 Indirect costs avoided (USD millions) 2,995 8,980 8,411 [Potential benefts on different scenarios, Brazil] Conclusions The burden of disease and related direct health expenditure in Latin America is very high and tax revenues from the sale of tobacco products are far below the levels needed to cover it. Increasing cigarette´s price through taxes is an effective intervention to reduce tobacco-attributable burden of disease and health expenditures in Latin America.

Objective. To assess the cost-effectiveness of the qua- drivalent vaccine against human papillomavirus (HPV) in Argentina from the health system perspective. Materials and methods. A dynamic transmission model was used to estimate the impact of the vaccine on the incidence of cervical cancer, warts, and other HPV related diseases; in quality adjusted life years (QALYs); and in healthcare costs. Results. Vaccination could reduce the risk of cervical cancer by 60% and by 67% the risk of genital warts. Compared to a non-vaccine scenario, the immunization strategy showed an incremental benefit of 0.00234 QALY per person at an incremental cost of US$2.36, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$1007.55 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis proved the robustness of these results. Conclusions. Immunization with the quadrivalent vaccine was a cost-effective intervention in Argentina, and it was far below the threshold of one gross domestic product per capita (US$15 009) per QALY gained.

Abstract Objective To estimate the impact of Argentine policies to reduce trans fatty acids (TFA) on coronary heart disease (CHD), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and associated health-care costs. Methods We estimated the baseline intake of TFA before 2004 to be 1.5% of total energy intake. We built a policy model including baseline intake of TFA, the oils and fats used to replace artificial TFAs, the clinical effect of reducing artificial TFAs and the costs and DALYs saved due to averted CHD events. To calculate the percentage of reduction of CHD, we calculated CHD risks on a population-based sample before and after implementation. The effect of the policies was modelled in three ways, based on projected changes: (i) in plasma lipid profiles; (ii) in lipid and inflammatory biomarkers; and (iii) the results of prospective cohort studies. We also estimated the present economic value of DALYs and associated health-care costs of coronary heart disease averted. Findings We estimated that projected changes in lipid profile would avert 301 deaths, 1066 acute CHD events, 5237 DALYs and 17 million United States dollars (US$) in health-care costs annually. Based on the adverse effects of TFA intake reported in prospective cohort studies, 1517 deaths, 5373 acute CHD events, 26 394 DALYs and US$ 87 million would be averted annually. Conclusion Even under the most conservative scenario, reduction of TFA intake had a substantial effect on public health. These findings will help inform decision-makers in Argentina and other countries on the potential public health and economic impact of this policy.