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Merging datasets across institutions is a lengthy and costly procedure, especially when it involves private information. Data hosts may therefore want to prospectively gauge which datasets are most beneficial to merge with, without revealing sensitive information. For causal estimation this is particularly challenging as the value of a merge will depend not only on the reduction in epistemic uncertainty but also the improvement in overlap. To address this challenge, we introduce the first cryptographically secure information-theoretic approach for quantifying the value of a merge in the context of heterogeneous treatment effect estimation. We do this by evaluating the Expected Information Gain (EIG) and utilising multi-party computation to ensure it can be securely computed without revealing any raw data. As we demonstrate, this can be used with differential privacy (DP) to ensure privacy requirements whilst preserving more accurate computation than naive DP alone. To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first privacy-preserving method for dataset acquisition tailored to causal estimation. We demonstrate the effectiveness and reliability of our method on a range of simulated and realistic benchmarks. The code is available anonymously.

Collective action in machine learning is the study of the control that a coordinated group can have over machine learning algorithms. While previous research has concentrated on assessing the impact of collectives against Bayes (sub-)optimal classifiers, this perspective is limited in that it does not account for the choice of learning algorithm. Since classifiers seldom behave like Bayes classifiers and are influenced by the choice of learning algorithms along with their inherent biases, in this work we initiate the study of how the choice of the learning algorithm plays a role in the success of a collective in practical settings. Specifically, we focus on distributionally robust optimization (DRO), popular for improving a worst group error, and on the ubiquitous stochastic gradient descent (SGD), due to its inductive bias for "simpler" functions. Our empirical results, supported by a theoretical foundation, show that the effective size and success of the collective are highly dependent on properties of the learning algorithm. This highlights the necessity of taking the learning algorithm into account when studying the impact of collective action in machine learning., Comment: Accepted at the International Conference in Machine Learning (ICML), 2024

In this paper we provide a theoretical analysis of counterfactual invariance. We present a variety of existing definitions, study how they relate to each other and what their graphical implications are. We then turn to the current major question surrounding counterfactual invariance, how does it relate to conditional independence? We show that whilst counterfactual invariance implies conditional independence, conditional independence does not give any implications about the degree or likelihood of satisfying counterfactual invariance. Furthermore, we show that for discrete causal models counterfactually invariant functions are often constrained to be functions of particular variables, or even constant., Comment: 5 pages with 6 pages of supplementary. Accepted at the ICML 2023 workshop on Spurious Correlations, Invariance and Stability

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

With the widespread application of causal inference, it is increasingly important to have tools which can test for the presence of causal effects in a diverse array of circumstances. In this vein we focus on the problem of testing for \emph{distributional} causal effects, where the treatment affects not just the mean, but also higher order moments of the distribution, as well as multidimensional or structured outcomes. We build upon a previously introduced framework, Counterfactual Mean Embeddings, for representing causal distributions within Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS) by proposing new, improved, estimators for the distributional embeddings. These improved estimators are inspired by doubly robust estimators of the causal mean, using a similar form within the kernel space. We analyse these estimators, proving they retain the doubly robust property and have improved convergence rates compared to the original estimators. This leads to new permutation based tests for distributional causal effects, using the estimators we propose as tests statistics. We experimentally and theoretically demonstrate the validity of our tests., Comment: 10 pages, Preprint

In this paper we look at popular fairness methods that use causal counterfactuals. These methods capture the intuitive notion that a prediction is fair if it coincides with the prediction that would have been made if someone's race, gender or religion were counterfactually different. In order to achieve this, we must have causal models that are able to capture what someone would be like if we were to counterfactually change these traits. However, we argue that any model that can do this must lie outside the particularly well behaved class that is commonly considered in the fairness literature. This is because in fairness settings, models in this class entail a particularly strong causal assumption, normally only seen in a randomised controlled trial. We argue that in general this is unlikely to hold. Furthermore, we show in many cases it can be explicitly rejected due to the fact that samples are selected from a wider population. We show this creates difficulties for counterfactual fairness as well as for the application of more general causal fairness methods., Comment: To appear in Causal Learning and Reasoning 2022. 13 pages main text and 8 pages of appendices