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A qualidade insuficiente da causa básica de óbito no Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) subenumera as violências, e se faz necessária a redistribuição das causas garbage (CG) em causas válidas na prevenção em saúde pública. Este estudo estimou a mortalidade de causas externas usando método de redistribuição de CG (GBD-Brasil), e comparou com dados do SIM e estimados do estudo GBD-IHME de 2010 a 2019 no Brasil e Unidades Federativas (UF). O algoritmo de redistribuição das CG do GBD-Brasil aplica etapas prévias do GBD-IHME com modificações, usando dois critérios: proporção das causas-alvo (válidas) ou reclassificação de causas investigadas. Os dados do SIM estão sem correção. Utiliza-se taxas padronizadas por método direto, regressão local na série temporal e razão das taxas GBD-Brasil e SIM como fator de correção para lesões de trânsito, quedas, suicídios e homicídios. O Brasil registrou 1,34 milhão de óbitos com causas externas válidas e 171.700 CG em 10 anos. A redistribuição de CG do GBD-Brasil aumentou em 12,2% as causas válidas, e a curva de tendência das taxas foi semelhante à encontrada com dados do SIM, mas divergem entre si e com o GBD-IHME em UFs do Norte e do Nordeste. As estimativas do GBD-Brasil mudaram o padrão das causas externas nas UFs, aplicando maiores correções em quedas nas UFs do Norte e do Nordeste e homicídios nas demais UFs. O método GBD-Brasil pode ser utilizado na análise de mortes violentas por buscar maior simplicidade metodológica, que garante tanto replicação por gestores públicos como consistência do dado estimado, considerando a composição local do dado no processo de redistribuição.

RESUMO A 11a Classificação Estatística Internacional de Doenças e Problemas Relacionados à Saúde representa um avanço no enfoque do conhecimento e em novas abordagens das doenças. A Classificação Estatística Internacional de Doenças e Problemas Relacionados à Saúde é utilizada para diferentes finalidades práticas, possibilitando avaliação do avanço da agenda de saúde global, alocação de recursos, segurança do paciente, qualificação da assistência à saúde e reembolso de seguros de saúde. É inteiramente digital, com recursos tecnológicos que permitem sua atualização periódica. No início de 2022, a 11a Classificação Estatística Internacional de Doenças e Problemas Relacionados à Saúde entrou em vigência oficial, tendo sido disponibilizada em vários de seus idiomas oficiais, como o árabe, chinês, espanhol, francês e inglês. Apresenta-se aqui o processo de tradução para a língua portuguesa em uso no Brasil, coordenado pela Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, com apoio do Ministério da Saúde do Brasil e da Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde/Organização Mundial da Saúde. O trabalho foi realizado em três etapas entre agosto de 2021 e dezembro de 2022 por tradutores com diferentes formações: médicos especialistas (49), fisioterapeuta (1), farmacologista (1) e odontologista (1). Com este artigo metodológico, almeja-se ampliar a discussão de perspectivas para implementação da 11a Classificação Estatística Internacional de Doenças e Problemas Relacionados à Saúde no Brasil e construir uma oportunidade para sua adaptação e uso por outros países de língua oficial portuguesa.

Abstract Background Reliable mortality data are essential for the development of public health policies. In Brazil, although there is a well-consolidated universal system for mortality data, the quality of information on causes of death (CoD) is not even among Brazilian regions, with a high proportion of ill-defined CoD. Verbal autopsy (VA) is an alternative to improve mortality data. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of an adapted and reduced version of VA in identifying the underlying causes of non-forensic deaths, in São Paulo, Brazil. This is the first time that a version of the questionnaire has been validated considering the autopsy as the gold standard. Methods The performance of a physician-certified verbal autopsy (PCVA) was evaluated considering conventional autopsy (macroscopy plus microscopy) as gold standard, based on a sample of 2060 decedents that were sent to the Post-Mortem Verification Service (SVOC-USP). All CoD, from the underlying to the immediate, were listed by both parties, and ICD-10 attributed by a senior coder. For each cause, sensitivity and chance corrected concordance (CCC) were computed considering first the underlying causes attributed by the pathologist and PCVA, and then any CoD listed in the death certificate given by PCVA. Cause specific mortality fraction accuracy (CSMF-accuracy) and chance corrected CSMF-accuracy were computed to evaluate the PCVA performance at the populational level. Results There was substantial variability of the sensitivities and CCC across the causes. Well-known chronic diseases with accurate diagnoses that had been informed by physicians to family members, such as various cancers, had sensitivities above 40% or 50%. However, PCVA was not effective in attributing Pneumonia, Cardiomyopathy and Leukemia/Lymphoma as underlying CoD. At populational level, the PCVA estimated cause specific mortality fractions (CSMF) may be considered close to the fractions pointed by the gold standard. The CSMF-accuracy was 0.81 and the chance corrected CSMF-accuracy was 0.49. Conclusions The PCVA was efficient in attributing some causes individually and proved effective in estimating the CSMF, which indicates that the method is useful to establish public health priorities.

This study aimed to describe the characteristics of elderly people abuse notifications by gender and to assess notification patterns according to gender. We analyzed data from the Brazilian Information System for Notificable Diseases (SINAN) in 2017. We carried out a descriptive analysis of victim characteristics, violence, and the probable perpetrator according to gender. Pearson’s χ2 test was used to assess the significance between groups. Then, we verified the main relationships between the studied characteristics and the victim’s gender by simple correspondence analysis (SCA). Thus, 17,311 cases/suspicions of elderly people abuse were notified, corresponding to 7.2% of the total number of violence notifications. Of these victims, 50.4% were white, 42.3% were married, and 17.2% had a disability/disorder; 76.9% occurred at home, 62.8% included physical violence, and 49.5% were cases of repeated violence. Most perpetrators were men (62%), and violence by two or more perpetrators was observed in 62.8% of the cases. SCA evidenced inequalities in older adults’ gender, which proved to be higher among women. Physical violence was the most common among younger and old individuals, whereas neglect/abandonment tended to occur more frequently among the oldest individuals, and was most often committed by daughters. In sum, this study demonstrated evidence of gender-based violence, especially among older adults. Disability proved to be an essential characteristic for neglect/abandonment in older adults. In this context, policies are needed to reduce gender inequalities and implement a care network for older adults who are victims of violence.

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Abstract Background In Brazil, both the Civil Registry (CR) and Ministry of Health (MoH) Mortality Information System (SIM) are sources of routine mortality data, but neither is 100% complete. Deaths from these two sources can be linked to facilitate estimation of completeness of mortality reporting and measurement of adjusted mortality indicators using generalized linear modeling (GLM). Methods The 2015 and 2016 CR and SIM data were linked using deterministic methods. GLM with covariates of the deceased’s sex, age, state of residence, cause of death and place of death, and municipality-level education decile and population density decile, was used to estimate total deaths and completeness nationally, subnationally and by population sub-group, and to identify the characteristics of unreported deaths. The empirical completeness method and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates were comparators at the national and state level. Results Completeness was 98% for SIM and 95% for CR. The vast majority of deaths in Brazil were captured by either system and 94% were reported by both sources. For each source, completeness was lowest in the north. SIM completeness was consistently high across all sub-groups while CR completeness was lowest for deaths at younger ages, outside facilities, and in the lowest deciles of municipality education and population density. There was no clear municipality-level relationship in SIM and CR completeness, suggesting minimal dependence between sources. The empirical completeness method model 1 and GBD completeness estimates were each, on average, less than three percentage points different from GLM estimates at the state level. Life expectancy was lowest in the northeast and 7.5 years higher in females than males. Conclusions GLM using socio-economic and demographic covariates is a valuable tool to accurately estimate completeness from linked data sources. Close scrutiny of the quality of variables used to link deaths, targeted identification of unreported deaths in poorer, northern states, and closer coordination of the two systems will help Brazil achieve 100% death reporting completeness. The results also confirm the validity of the empirical completeness method.

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to estimate the mortality from all causes as a result of physical inactivity in Brazil and in Brazilian states over 28 years (1990–2017). Methods Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for Brazil and states were used. The metrics used were the summary exposure value (SEV), the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rates, and the fraction of population risk attributable to physical inactivity. Results The Brazilian population presented risk of exposure to physical inactivity of (age-standardized SEV) of 59% (95% U.I. 22–97) in 1990 and 59% in 2017 (95% U.I. 25–99). Physical inactivity contributed a significant number of deaths (1990, 22,537, 95% U.I. 12,157–34,745; 2017, 32,410, 95% U.I. 17,976–49,657) in the analyzed period. These values represented mortality rates standardized by age (per 100,000 inhabitants) of 31 (95% U.I. 17–48) in 1990 and 15 (95% U.I. 8–23) in 2017. From 1990 to 2017, a decrease in standardized death rate from all causes attributable to physical inactivity was observed in Brazil (− 52%, 95% U.I. − 54 to − 49). The Brazilian states with better socioeconomic conditions presented greater reductions in age-standardized mortality (male: rho = 0.80; female: rho 0.84) over the period of 28 years. Conclusions These findings support the promotion of physical activity in the Brazilian population for the prevention of early mortality.

Abstract Background Registered causes in vital statistics classified as garbage codes (GC) are considered indicators of quality of cause-of-death data. Our aim was to describe temporal changes in this quality in Brazil, and the leading GCs according to levels assembled for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. We also assessed socioeconomic differences in the burden of different levels of GCs at a regional level. Methods We extracted data from the Brazilian Mortality Information System from 1996 to 2016. All three- and four-digit ICD-10 codes considered GC were selected and classified into four categories, according to the GBD study proposal. GC levels 1 and 2 are the most damaging unusable codes, or major GCs. Proportionate distribution of deaths by GC levels according selected variables were performed. Age-standardized mortality rates after correction of underreporting of deaths were calculated to investigate temporal relationships as was the linear association adjusted for completeness between GC rates in states and the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) from the GBD study, for 1996–2005 and 2006–2016. We classified Brazilian states into three classes of development by applying tertiles cutoffs in the SDI state-level estimates. Results Age-standardized mortality rates due to GCs in Brazil decreased from 1996 to 2016, particularly level 1 GCs. The most important GC groups were ill-defined causes (level 1) in 1996, and pneumonia unspecified (level 4) in 2016. At state level, there was a significant inverse association between SDI and the rate of level 1–2 GCs in 1996–2005, but both SDI and completeness had a non-expected significant direct association with levels 3–4. In 2006–2016, states with higher SDIs tended to have lower rates of all types of GCs. Mortality rates due to major GCs decreased in all three SDI classes in 1996–2016, but GC levels 3–4 decreased only in the high SDI category. States classified in the low or medium SDI groups were responsible for the most important decline of major GCs. Conclusion Occurrence of major GCs are associated with socioeconomic determinants over time in Brazil. Their reduction with decreasing disparity in rates between socioeconomic groups indicates progress in reducing inequalities and strengthening cause-of-death statistics in the country.

Abstract Background Brazil leads the world in number of firearm deaths and ranks sixth by country in rate of firearm deaths per 100,000 people. This study aims to analyze trends in and burden of mortality by firearms, according to age and sex, for Brazil, and the association between these deaths and indicators of possession and carrying of weapons using data from the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study (GBD) 2017. Methods We used GBD 2017 estimates of mortality due to physical violence and self-harm from firearms for Brazil to analyze the association between deaths by firearms and explanatory variables. Results Deaths from firearms increased in Brazil from 25,819 in 1990 to 48,493 in 2017. Firearm mortality rates were higher among men and in the 20–24 age group; the rate was 20 times higher than for women in the same age group. Homicide rates increased during the study period, while mortality rates for suicides and accidental deaths decreased. The group of Brazilian federation units with the highest firearm collection rate (median = 7.5) showed reductions in the rate of total violent deaths by firearms. In contrast, the group with the lowest firearm collection rate (median = 2.0) showed an increase in firearm deaths from 2000 to 2017. An increase in the rate of voluntary return of firearms was associated with a reduction in mortality rates of unintentional firearm deaths (r = −0.364, p < 0.001). An increase in socio-demographic index (SDI) was associated with a reduction in all firearm death rates (r = −0.266, p = 0.008). An increase in the composite index of firearms seized or collected was associated with a reduction in rates of deaths by firearm in the subgroup of females, children, and the elderly (r = −0.269, p = 0.005). Conclusions There was a change in the trend of firearms deaths after the beginning of the collection of weapons in 2004. Federation units that collected more guns have reduced rates of violent firearm deaths.

Abstract Background Homicides are a major problem in Brazil. Drugs and arms trafficking, and land conflicts are three of the many factors driving homicide rates in Brazil. Understanding long-term spatiotemporal trends and social structural factors associated with homicides in Brazil would be useful for designing policies aimed at reducing homicide rates. Methods We obtained data from 2000 to 2014 from the Brazil Ministry of Health (MOH) Mortality Information System and sociodemographic data from the Brazil Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). First, we quantified the rate of change in homicides at the municipality and state levels. Second, we used principal component regression and k-medoids clustering to examine differences in temporal trends across municipalities. Lastly, we used Bayesian hierarchical space-time models to describe spatio-temporal patterns and to assess the contribution of structural factors. Results There were significant variations in homicide rates across states and municipalities. We noted the largest decrease in homicide rates in the western and southeastern states of Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Espirito Santo, which coincided with an increase in homicide rates in the northeastern states of Ceará, Alagoas, Paraiba, Rio Grande Norte, Sergipe and Bahia during the fifteen-year period. The decrease in homicides in municipalities with populations of at least 250,000 coincided with an increase in municipalities with 25,000 people or less. Structural factors that predicted municipality-level homicide rates included crude domestic product, urbanization, border with neighboring countries and proportion of population aged fifteen to twenty-nine. Conclusions Our findings support both a dissemination hypothesis and an interiorization hypothesis. These findings should be considered when designing interventions to curb homicide rates.

Abstract Background Brazil is the world’s fifth most populous nation, and is currently experimenting a fast demographic aging process in a context of scarce resources and social inequalities. To understand the health profile of older adults in Brazil is fundamental for planning public policies. Methods The estimates were derived from data obtained through the collaboration between the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics provided the population estimates. Data on causes of death came from the Mortality Information System. To calculate morbidity, population-based studies on the prevalence of diseases in Brazil were comprehensively searched, in addition to information obtained from national databases such as the Hospital Information System, the Outpatient Information System, and the Injury Information System. We presented the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates among Brazilian older adults (60+ years old) for life expectancy at birth (LE), healthy life expectancy (HALE), cause-specific mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), from 2000 to 2017. Results LE at birth significantly increased from 71.3 years (95% UI to 70.9-71.8) to 75.2 years (95% UI 74.7-75.7). There was a trend of increasing HALE, from 62.2 years (95% UI 59.54-64.5) to 65.5 years (95% UI 62.6-68.0). The proportion of DALYs among older adults increased from 7.3 to 10.3%. Chronic noncommunicable diseases are the leading cause of death among middle aged and older adults, while Alzheimer’s disease is a leading cause only among older adults. Mood disorders, musculoskeletal pain, and hearing or vision losses are among the leading causes of disability. Conclusions The increase in LE and the decrease of the DALYs rates are probably results of the improvement of social conditions and health policies. However, the smaller increase of HALE than LE means that despite living more, people spend a substantial time of their old age with disability and illness. Preventable or potentially controllable diseases are responsible for most of the burden of disease among Brazilian older adults. Health investments are necessary to obtain longevity with quality of life in Brazil.

Abstract Background Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in women and the leading cause of cancer death among females worldwide. In recent decades, breast cancer death rates have been stable or decreasing in more developed regions; however, this has not been observed in less developed regions. This study aims to evaluate inequalities in the burden of female breast cancer in Brazil including an analysis of interregional and interstate patterns in incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates from 1990 to 2017, and mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR), and their association with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods Using estimates from the global burden of disease (GBD) study, we applied a spatial exploratory analysis technique to obtain measurements of global and local spatial correlation. Percentage changes of breast cancer incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates between 1990 and 2017 were calculated, and maps were developed to show the spatial distribution of the variables. Spatial panel models were adjusted to investigate the association between rates and SDI in Brazilian states. Results In Brazil, while breast cancer mortality rate have had modest reduction (−4.45%; 95% UI: −6.97; −1.76) between 1990 and 2017, the incidence rate increased substantially (+39.99%; 95% UI: 34.90; 45.39). Breast cancer incidence and mortality rates in 1990 and 2017 were higher in regions with higher SDI, i.e., the most developed ones. While SDI increased in all Brazilian states between 1990 and 2017, notably in less developed regions, MIR decreased, more notably in more developed regions. The SDI had a positive association with incidence rate and a negative association with MIR. Conclusion Such findings suggest an improvement in breast cancer survival in the period, which may be related to a broader access to diagnostic methods and treatment. This study also revealed the inequality in breast cancer outcomes among Brazilian states and may guide public policy priorities for disease control in the country.

Introduction: The impact of COVID-19 pandemics on cardiovascular diseases (CVD) may be caused by health system reorganization and/or collapse, or from changes in the behaviour of individuals. In Brazil, municipalities were empowered to define regulatory measures, potentially resulting in diverse effects on CVD morbimortality. Objective: To analyse the impact of COVID-19 pandemics on CVD outcomes in Belo Horizonte (BH), the sixth greater capital city in Brazil, including: mortality, mortality at home, hospitalizations, intensive care unit utilization, and in-hospital mortality; and the differential effect according to sex, age range, social vulnerability, and pandemic’s phase. Methods: Ecological study analysing data from the Mortality and Hospital Information System of BH residents aged ≥30 years. CVD was defined as in Chapter IX from ICD-10. Social vulnerability was classified by a composite socioeconomic index as high, medium and low. The observed age-standardized rates for epidemiological weeks 10–48, 2020, were compared to the expected rates (mean of 2015–2019). Risk ratios (RiR) were analysed and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for all estimates. Population projected to 2020 for BH and its census tracts were used to calculate rates. Results: We found no changes in CVD mortality rates (RiR 1.01, 95%CI 0.96–1.06). However, CVD deaths occurred more at homes (RiR 1.32, 95%CI 1.20–1.46) than in hospitals (RiR 0.89, 95%CI 0.79–0.99), as a result of a substantial decline in hospitalization rates, even though proportional in-hospital deaths increased. The rise in home deaths was greater in older adults and in had an increasing gradient in those more socially vulnerable (RiR 1.45); for high (RiR 1.45), medium (RiR 1.32) and low vulnerability (RiR 1.21). Conclusion: The greater occurrence of CVD deaths at home, in parallel with lower hospitalization rates, suggests that CVD care was disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemics, which more adversely affected older and more socially vulnerable individuals, exacerbating health inequities in BH.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Aggression against women is an important cause of morbidity and death. This study compares the variation of deaths and years of life lost to death or disability (DALY) caused by interpersonal violence against women in Brazil and its states. METHODS This descriptive study analyzed estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) referring to interpersonal violence against women, aged 15 to 49 years, examining the mortality and DALY rates for Brazil and its states, in 1990 and 2019. RESULTS In this study, 3,168 deaths of women between 15 and 49 years of age, caused by interpersonal violence, were estimated in 1990, and 4,262 in 2019, which represents an increase of 33.8%. Regardless of the Maria da Penha Law and the progress in policies for curbing violence against women, one can observe a stability in the mortality and DALY rates in most of the Brazilian states. Only Bahia had a significant increase in those rates, while Federal District, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo showed a significant decline. CONCLUSIONS The rates of female homicide have remained stable when comparing 1990 and 2019. Although there were improvements in terms of women’s rights in the early 2000’s, the chauvinist and conservative society of Brazil has not been able to protect women, and the country might not reach the targets established by the UN’s 2030 Agenda.

Abstract INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to estimate the burden of stroke mortality due to low levels of physical activity (PA) in Brazil from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Data from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study for Brazil and Brazilian states were used. We used the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rates, summary exposure value, and fraction of population risk attributable to low levels of PA. To standardize all estimates, data from the population aged 25 years or older were considered. RESULTS: The risk of exposure to low PA, SEV values, for the Brazilian male population was 11.8% (95%UI: 6.7; 19.9) and for the Brazilian female population was 13.2% (95%UI: 8.6; 19.2) in 2019. For males, it was estimated that there were, respectively, 2,025 (95%UI: 271; 4,839) and 3,595 (95%UI: 658; 7,302) deaths in 1990 and 2019 due to stroke attributable to low PA. For females, there were 2,518 (95%UI: 498; 5,006) and 4,735 (95%UI: 1,286; 8,495) deaths in 1990 and 2019 due to stroke attributable to low PA, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, reductions of 44.0% for males (95%UI: −0.54; -0.05) and 52.0% for females (95%UI: −0.60; -0.30) in age-standardized mortality rates due to stroke attributed to low PA were observed. Approximately 6.1% (for males) and 7.3% (for females) of deaths in 2019 due to stroke could be avoided if the Brazilian population were physically active. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the promotion of PA in all Brazilian states for preventing early mortality due to stroke.

Abstract INTRODUCTION Maternal death continues to be one of the most challenging public health problems that needs to be addressed in low and middle-income countries. The objective of this study was to describe the problem of maternal death in Brazil, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD). METHODS This study used data from the GBD 2019 to show the numbers of deaths and the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) - number of deaths/100,000 live births - in Brazil and its 27 Federated Units (FU), for ages 10 to 54 years, from 1990 to 2019. The annual variation of the MMR was estimated in 1990, 2010, and 2019. The MMR were shown for specific causes as well as for five-year age groups. The estimates were presented with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). RESULTS The number of maternal deaths, as well as the MMR showed a 49% reduction from 1990 to 2019. This reduction occurred heterogeneously throughout the country, and the profile of the MMR for specific causes changed between 1990 and 2019: from hypertensive gestation diseases, to indirect maternal deaths, followed by hypertensive gestation diseases. In the extreme age groups, the MMR is higher, with mortality increasing exponentially in direct proportion with age. CONCLUSIONS Maternal deaths in Brazil have decreased substantially since 1990; however, the numbers still fall short of what was established by the World Health Organization (WHO). Indirect causes are the greatest problem in more than 60% of the FU, especially for hypertensive pregnancy diseases.

The purpose of this article is to quantify the amount of misclassification of the Coronavirus Disease-2019 (COVID-19) mortality occurring in hospitals and other health facilities in selected cities in Brazil, discuss potential factors contributing to this misclassification, and consider the implications for vital statistics. Hospital deaths assigned to causes classified as garbage code (GC) COVID-related cases (severe acute respiratory syndrome, pneumonia unspecified, sepsis, respiratory failure and ill-defined causes) were selected in three Brazilian state capitals. Data from medical charts and forensic reports were extracted from standard forms and analyzed by study physicians who re-assigned the underlying cause based on standardized criteria. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed and the potential impact in vital statistics in the country was also evaluated. Among 1,365 investigated deaths due to GC-COVID-related causes, COVID-19 was detected in 17.3% in the age group 0–59 years and 25.5% deaths in 60 years and over. These GCs rose substantially in 2020 in the country and were responsible for 211,611 registered deaths. Applying observed proportions by age, location and specific GC-COVID-related cause to national data, there would be an increase of 37,163 cases in the total of COVID-19 deaths, higher in the elderly. In conclusion, important undercount of deaths from COVID-19 among GC-COVID-related causes was detected in three selected capitals of Brazil. After extrapolating the study results for national GC-COVID-related deaths we infer that the burden of COVID-19 disease in Brazil in official vital statistics was probably under estimated by at least 18% in the country in 2020.

O texto apresenta as falas proferidas na atividade “A (in)visibilidade de bebês e crianças na Pandemia”, promovida pelo Fórum Paulista de Educação Infantil – FPEI, realizada no dia 08 de junho de 2021, por meio de plataforma digital e transmitida pelas redes sociais oficiais do FPEI. No contexto das discussões sobre o retorno às atividades presenciais nas escolas no estado de São Paulo, teve por objetivo evidenciar e problematizar a complexidade da situação diante da adoção de protocolos de biossegurança inexequíveis nas creches e pré-escolas públicas e da subnotificação dos dados de contágio, adoecimento e óbitos por Covid 19 na faixa etária dos bebês e crianças pequenas. Conclui-se que é de fundamental importância ampliar a divulgação dos dados e apontamentos apresentados pelas autoras, de forma a contribuir para visibilizar os impactos e as consequências da Pandemia aos bebês, às crianças e à infância brasileira.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Avaliar a mortalidade por áreas de Belo Horizonte (BH) durante a pandemia de COVID-19 conforme a vulnerabilidade social, visando a uma estratégia de vacinação. Métodos: Estudo ecológico com análise de mortalidade, segundo setores censitários classificados pelo índice de vulnerabilidade da saúde, composto de indicadores de saneamento e socioeconômicos. Óbitos por causas naturais e COVID-19 foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, entre a 10ª e a 43ª semanas epidemiológicas (SE) de 2020. Calculou-se o excesso de mortalidade por modelo de série temporal, considerando-se as mortes observadas por SE entre 2015 e 2019, por setor censitário. Taxas de mortalidade (TM) foram calculadas e padronizadas por idade com base em estimativas populacionais do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Resultados: Houve 16,1% (n = 1.524) de excesso de mortalidade em BH: 11, 18,8 e 17,3% nas áreas de baixa, média e elevada vulnerabilidade, respectivamente. As diferenças entre TM observadas e esperadas por causas naturais, padronizadas por idade, foi igual a 59/100 mil habitantes em BH, aumentando de 31 para 77 e 95/100 mil, nas áreas de baixa, média e elevada vulnerabilidade, respectivamente. Houve gradiente de aumento com a idade nas TM por COVID-19, variando de 4 a 611/100 mil habitantes entre as idades de 20-39 anos e 75+ anos. A TM por COVID-19 por 100 mil idosos (60+ anos) foi igual a 292, aumentando de 179 para 354 e 476 nos setores de baixa, média e elevada vulnerabilidade, respectivamente. Conclusão: Desigualdades na mortalidade, mesmo entre idosos, aliadas à baixa oferta de doses, demonstram a importância de priorizar áreas socialmente vulneráveis durante a vacinação contra COVID-19.

RESUMO: Objetivos: Descrever as ações realizadas pela vigilância epidemiológica da Secretaria Municipal de Saúde de Belo Horizonte para enfrentamento da epidemia de COVID-19 e avaliar a oportunidade para detecção precoce da transmissão da doença no período compreendido entre 1º de janeiro e 24 de abril de 2020. Métodos: Foram identificadas as fontes de informação utilizadas pela vigilância epidemiológica do município para a COVID-19 e analisadas a distribuição temporal e a oportunidade para detecção dos casos confirmados da doença. Resultados: A vigilância epidemiológica do município utiliza fontes de notificações ambulatoriais, hospitalares, de laboratórios públicos e privados, além de busca ativa com cruzamento de dados laboratoriais na investigação de óbitos suspeitos, sendo os casos confirmados de COVID-19 informados em sistemas de informação oficiais. Foram notificados 1.449 casos internados, sendo o primeiro caso detectado no fim de fevereiro de 2020. Do total de 1.025 amostras laboratoriais de casos internados após a semana epidemiológica 8, confirmaram-se 87 casos (8,5%) por COVID-19. A mediana de tempo entre o início dos sintomas e a liberação dos resultados laboratoriais foi de 12 dias. Conclusão: A vigilância epidemiológica utiliza várias fontes de dados para monitoramento e análise da transmissão da COVID-19. A oportunidade para detecção de casos da doença está comprometida pela demora na liberação dos resultados laboratoriais, sendo um desafio para a vigilância.

Abstract Background The aims of this study were to estimate the mortality due to diabetes mellitus attributed to physical inactivity in Brazil, to analyze these estimate in three points in time (1990, 2006 and, 2016), and to analyze these estimates according to the socioeconomic status of Brazilian states. Methods All deaths and diseases recorded in Brazil during this period were analyzed. Surveys of the general adult population using random sampling procedures evaluating self-reported physical activity in all life domains in Brazil were included. The total number and the age-standardized rates of deaths, and population-attributable fraction (PAF) for diabetes mellitus attributed to physical inactivity in the years 1990, 2006, and 2016 were estimated. Socioeconomic Development Index (SDI) was used as an indicator of socioeconomic status of Brazilian states. Results In relation to mortality due to diabetes mellitus attributed to physical inactivity, 736 deaths were estimated in 1990, 1337 deaths were estimated in 2006, and 1897 in 2016, which represented, in 1990, an age-standardized mortality rate (per 100,000 inhabitants) of 1.2, 2.1 in 2006, and 1.1 in 2016. Approximately 3.0% (PAF) of deaths due to diabetes mellitus could be avoided if the Brazilian population were physically active. In 2006 and 2016, Brazilian states with worst socioeconomic indicators had higher age-standardized mortality rate by diabetes mellitus due to physical inactivity. Conclusion These findings are the first to estimate the burden of diabetes mellitus due to physical inactivity in Brazil and support the promotion of physical activity in the Brazilian population to prevent and manage diabetes mellitus.

Abstract Background Brazil has high burdens of tuberculosis (TB) and HIV, as previously estimated for the 26 states and the Federal District, as well as high levels of inequality in social and health indicators. We improved the geographic detail of burden estimation by modelling deaths due to TB and HIV and TB case fatality ratios for the more than 5400 municipalities in Brazil. Methods This ecological study used vital registration data from the national mortality information system and TB case notifications from the national communicable disease notification system from 2001 to 2015. Mortality due to TB and HIV was modelled separately by cause and sex using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed effects regression model. TB incidence was modelled using the same approach. Results were calibrated to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. Case fatality ratios were calculated for TB. Results There was substantial inequality in TB and HIV mortality rates within the nation and within states. National-level TB mortality in people without HIV infection declined by nearly 50% during 2001 to 2015, but HIV mortality declined by just over 20% for males and 10% for females. TB and HIV mortality rates for municipalities in the 90th percentile nationally were more than three times rates in the 10th percentile, with nearly 70% of the worst-performing municipalities for male TB mortality and more than 75% for female mortality in 2001 also in the worst decile in 2015. The same municipality ranking metric for HIV was observed to be between 55% and 61%. Within states, the TB mortality rate ratios by sex for municipalities in the worst decile versus the best decile varied from 1.4 to 2.9, and HIV varied from 1.4 to 4.2. The World Health Organization target case fatality rate for TB of less than 10% was achieved in 9.6% of municipalities for males versus 38.4% for females in 2001 and improved to 38.4% and 56.6% of municipalities for males versus females, respectively, by 2014. Conclusions Mortality rates in municipalities within the same state exhibited nearly as much relative variation as within the nation as a whole. Monitoring the mortality burden at this level of geographic detail is critical for guiding precision public health responses.

ABSTRACT Introduction: Brazil presented a high proportion of ill-defined causes of death (IDCD) in 2000, compromising accurate cause-of-death analysis. Objective: To analyze specific underlying causes for deaths originally assigned as IDCD in the Mortality Information System (SIM - Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade), after investigation activities implemented in country between 2006 and 2017. Method: For all IDCD identified in the SIM, municipal health professionals collected information about the final disease obtained from hospital records, autopsies, forms of family health teams, and home investigation. Specific causes among reclassified IDCD after investigation were evaluated according to age groups and four calendar periods. Results: Proportions of IDCD reassigned to other causes after review increased over time, reaching 30.1% in 2017. From a total of 257,367 IDCD reclassified in 2006-2017, neonatal-related conditions, injury, ischemic heart disease and stroke were the leading causes detected in the age groups 0-9 years, 10-29 years, 30-69 years, 70 years and over, respectively. Discussion: The similarity and plausibility of cause-specific proportions derived from the reclassification of IDCD by age group over time indicate the accuracy of the investigation data. Conclusion: High proportions of IDCD reassigned to more informative causes after review indicate the success of this approach to correct misclassification in the SIM, an initiative that should be maintained. Training physicians on death certification along with better quality of medical care and access to health services would lead to further improvement.

ABSTRACT Introduction: Reliable cause-of-death statistics are an important source of information on trends and differentials in population health. In Brazil, the Mortality Information System is responsible for compiling cause of death (CoD) data. Despite the success in reducing R-codes ill-defined causes of death, other garbage codes (GC), classified as causes that cannot be the underlying CoD, according to the Global Burden of Disease study, remain a challenge. The Ministry of Health (MoH) aims to decrease the proportion of all GCs, and a pilot study tested a comprehensive strategy to investigate GC deaths that occurred in 2015. Methods: The research was conducted in seven Brazilian cities during five months in 2016: two rural cities, one metropolitan area, and four capitals. For all GCs selected, municipal healthcare workers collected information about the terminal disease from hospital records, autopsies, family health teams, and home investigation. The fieldwork was coordinated at Federal level in partnership with State and municipal teams. Results: Out of 1,242 deaths selected, physicians analyzed the information collected and certified the CoD in 1,055 deaths, resulting in 92.6% of cases having their underlying cause changed to a usable ICD-10 code. Discussion: It is noteworthy the capacity the health teams in the seven cities showed during the implementation of the pilot. Conclusion: After results analysis, the GC investigation protocol was modified, and the implementation scaled up to 60 cities in 2017.

RESUMO Introdução: O aplicativo para smartphone AtestaDO foi desenvolvido para auxiliar o médico na certificação da causa de morte. Neste estudo se propõe avaliar a aceitabilidade desse aplicativo. Métodos: Médicos foram convidados para participar de reuniões sobre certificação correta da causa da morte e avaliar o aplicativo em três etapas dessas reuniões, realizadas em Natal e em dois grandes hospitais de Belo Horizonte. Resultados: Em Natal, 82% dos 38 médicos participantes tinham mais de 20 anos de graduação, e em Belo Horizonte, mais de 67% dos 58 médicos tinham menos de 5 anos de graduação. As seções “Interface do aplicativo”, “Como atestar as causas de morte”, “Prática com exercícios” e “Outras informações para o médico” foram bem avaliadas por mais de 50% dos médicos de Belo Horizonte. Em Natal, todas as seções foram bem avaliadas por pelo menos 80% dos médicos. Mais de 70% dos participantes de Natal e da segunda etapa de Belo Horizonte usariam o aplicativo para preencher a causa de morte. A probabilidade de usar o AtestaDO para dar aulas sobre preenchimento da Declaração de Óbito foi de 83% para médicos de Natal, mas inferior a 60% em Belo Horizonte. Nas três etapas, a maioria dos médicos recomendaria o uso do aplicativo para outros colegas. Conclusão: A avaliação do aplicativo AtestaDO mostrou boa aceitabilidade. Espera-se que o uso dessa ferramenta permita alcançar melhorias na certificação médica da causa do óbito.

We estimated the speed of Zika virus introduction in Brazil by using confirmed cases at the municipal level. Our models indicate a southward pattern of introduction starting from the northeastern coast and a pattern of movement toward the western border with an average speed of spread of 42 km/day or 15,367 km/year.

Resumo OBJETIVO: descrever os coeficientes de prevalência e caracterizar os casos de microcefalia ao nascer no Brasil, no período 2000-2015. MÉTODOS: estudo descritivo com dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Nascidos Vivos (Sinasc). Foram calculados coeficientes segundo regiões e características das mães e nascidos vivos (NV). RESULTADOS: a média anual de casos de microcefalia foi 164 no período 2000-2014, enquanto em 2015 foram registrados 1.608 casos (54,6 casos por 100 mil NV). Coeficientes mais elevados foram observados entre prematuros (81,7; IC95%72,3; 92,2), nascidos de mães pretas (70,9; IC95%58,5; 85,9) ou pardas (71,5; IC95%67,4; 75,8), com idades ≤19 (70,3; IC95%63,5; 77,8) ou ≥40 anos (62,1; IC95%46,6; 82,6), ≤3 anos de estudo (73,4; IC95%58,2; 92,4) e residentes na região Nordeste (138,7; IC95%130,9; 147,0). CONCLUSÃO: o elevado número de casos de microcefalia registrado em 2015 reforça a importância do Sinasc e do aprimoramento do sistema de vigilância das anomalias congênitas.

ABSTRACT Stroke mortality rates are declining in Brazil, but diferences among regions need to be better investigated. The age-adjusted stroke mortality trends among adults (30-69 years-old) from Brazilian regions were studied between 1996 and 2011. Method Data were analyzed after: 1) reallocation of deaths with non-registered sex or age; 2) redistribution of garbage codes and 3) underreporting correction. A linear regression model with autoregressive errors and a state space model were fitted to the data, aiming the estimation of annual trends at every point in time. Results Although there were high values, a steady decrease of rates was observed. The decreasing trends among all regions were statistically significant, with higher values of decline among the Northeast and Northern regions, where rates were the highest. Conclusion Standardized methodology use is mandatory for correct interpretation of mortality estimates. Although declining, rates are still extremely high and efforts must be made towards prevention of stroke incidence, reduction of case-fatality rates and prevention of sequelae.

BACKGROUND:In 2015, high rates of microcephaly were reported in Northeast Brazil following the first South American Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak. Reported microcephaly rates in other Zika-affected areas were significantly lower, suggesting alternate causes or the involvement of arboviral cofactors in exacerbating microcephaly rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS:We merged data from multiple national reporting databases in Brazil to estimate exposure to 9 known or hypothesized causes of microcephaly for every pregnancy nationwide since the beginning of the ZIKV outbreak; this generated between 3.6 and 5.4 million cases (depending on analysis) over the time period 1 January 2015-23 May 2017. The association between ZIKV and microcephaly was statistically tested against models with alternative causes or with effect modifiers. We found no evidence for alternative non-ZIKV causes of the 2015-2017 microcephaly outbreak, nor that concurrent exposure to arbovirus infection or vaccination modified risk. We estimate an absolute risk of microcephaly of 40.8 (95% CI 34.2-49.3) per 10,000 births and a relative risk of 16.8 (95% CI 3.2-369.1) given ZIKV infection in the first or second trimester of pregnancy; however, because ZIKV infection rates were highly variable, most pregnant women in Brazil during the ZIKV outbreak will have been subject to lower risk levels. Statistically significant associations of ZIKV with other birth defects were also detected, but at lower relative risks than that of microcephaly (relative risk < 1.5). Our analysis was limited by missing data prior to the establishment of nationwide ZIKV surveillance, and its findings may be affected by unmeasured confounding causes of microcephaly not available in routinely collected surveillance data. CONCLUSIONS:This study strengthens the evidence that congenital ZIKV infection, particularly in the first 2 trimesters of pregnancy, is associated with microcephaly and less frequently with other birth defects. The finding of no alternative causes for geographic differences in microcephaly rate leads us to hypothesize that the Northeast region was disproportionately affected by this Zika outbreak, with 94% of an estimated 8.5 million total cases occurring in this region, suggesting a need for seroprevalence surveys to determine the underlying reason.

Resumo Objetivo: descrever a melhoria da qualidade do registro da causa básica de morte por causas externas após realização do relacionamento de dados dos setores Saúde, Segurança Pública e imprensa no estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, em 2014. Métodos: relacionamento determinístico de dados de óbitos por causas externas de intenção indeterminada e naturais por causa indeterminada do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM), Instituto Médico Legal, Polícia Civil, Serviço de Atendimento Móvel de Urgência (SAMU) e imprensa. Resultados: dos 13.916 óbitos por causas externas, os óbitos por causas de intenção indeterminada foram reduzida de 5.836 (41,9%) para 958 (6,9%); das 2.069 causas naturais indeterminadas, 222 (10,7%) foram reclassificadas para causas externas; houve aumento na mortalidade por acidentes de transporte (93,0%), agressões (71,6%), intervenção legal (744,7%), lesões autoinfligidas (112%) e outros acidentes (29,9%). Conclusão: houve melhoria da qualidade da informação por tipo de causa básica por causas externas, mediante estratégia que pode ser reproduzida por outros serviços.

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze if the burden of ischemic heart disease mortality trend attributed to physical inactivity in Brazil differs from the global estimates. METHODS Databases from the Global Burden of Disease Study for Brazil, Brazilian states, and global information were used. We estimated the summary exposure value for physical inactivity, the total number of deaths, and the age-standardized death rates for ischemic heart disease attributed to physical inactivity in the years 1990 and 2015, and the population-attributable fraction. Data were presented according to sex. RESULTS The Brazilian population was found to have a risk of exposure to physical inactivity varying between 70.4% for men and 75.7% for women in the year of 1990. This risk of exposure was similar in 2015. In men, the mortality rate from ischemic heart disease attributed to physical inactivity decreased in 2015 by approximately 24% around the world and 45% in Brazil. For women, this decrease was in 31% around the world and 45% in Brazil. The states of Southern and Southeastern Brazil presented lower mortality rates due to ischemic heart disease attributed to physical inactivity. If physical inactivity were eliminated in Brazil, mortality from ischemic heart disease would be reduced by 15.8% for men and 15.2% for women. CONCLUSIONS Over 25 years, the risk of exposure to physical inactivity in Brazil did not change and was high compared to global estimates. The decrease in ischemic heart disease mortality results from the improvement of health services in Brazil and the control of other risk factors. Approximately 15% of deaths from ischemic heart disease in Brazil could be avoided if people met the recommendations for physical activity.

Summary: Background: Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies. Methods: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide. Findings: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur. Interpretation: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The aims of this study were to estimate all-cause and cause-specific mortality and years of life lost, investigated by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), due to colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity in Brazil and in the states; to analyze the temporal trend of these estimates over 25 years (1990-2015) compared with global estimates and according to the socioeconomic status of states of Brazil.Databases from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) for Brazil, Brazilian states and global information were used. It was estimated the total number and the age-standardized rates of deaths and DALYs for colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity in the years 1990 and 2015. We used the Socioeconomic Development Index (SDI).Physical inactivity was responsible for a substantial number of deaths (1990: 1,302; 2015: 119,351) and DALYs (1990: 31,121; 2015: 87,116) due to colorectal cancer in Brazil. From 1990 to 2015, the mortality and DALYs due to colorectal cancer attributable to physical inactivity increased in Brazil (0.6% and 0.6%, respectively) and decreased around the world (-0.8% and -1.1%, respectively). The Brazilian states with better socioeconomic indicators had higher rates of mortality and morbidity by colorectal cancer due to physical inactivity (p