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Nongravitational accelerations in the absence of observed activity have recently been identified on NEOs, opening the question of the prevalence of anisotropic mass-loss in the near-Earth environment. Motivated by the necessity of nongravitational accelerations to identify 2010 VL$_{65}$ and 2021 UA$_{12}$ as a single object, we investigate the problem of linking separate apparitions in the presence of nongravitational perturbations. We find that nongravitational accelerations on the order of $10^{-9}$ au/d$^2$ can lead to a change in plane-of-sky positions of $\sim10^3$ arcsec between apparitions. Moreover, we inject synthetic tracklets of hypothetical nongravitationally-accelerating NEOs into the Minor Planet Center orbit identification algorithms. We find that at large nongravitational accelerations ($|A_i|\geq10^{-8}$ au/d$^2$) these algorithms fail to link a significant fraction of these tracklets. We further show that if orbits can be determined for both apparitions, the tracklets will be linked regardless of nongravitational accelerations, although they may be linked to multiple objects. In order to aid in the identification and linkage of nongravitationally accelerating objects, we propose and test a new methodology to search for unlinked pairs. When applied to the current census of NEOs, we recover the previously identified case but identify no new linkages. We conclude that current linking algorithms are generally robust to nongravitational accelerations, but objects with large nongravitational accelerations may potentially be missed. While current algorithms are well-positioned for the anticipated increase in the census population from future survey missions, it may be possible to find objects with large nongravitational accelerations hidden in isolated tracklet pairs., Comment: 16 pages, 5 figures and 5 appendix figures. Accepted to ApJ

This work is dedicated to debias the Near-Earth Objects (NEO) population based on observations from the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescopes. We have applied similar methods used to develop the recently released NEO model generator (NEOMOD), once debiasing the NEO population using data from Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) G96 telescope. ATLAS is composed of four different telescopes. We first analyzed observational data from each of all four telescopes separately and later combined them. Our results highlight main differences between CSS and ATLAS, e.g., sky coverage and survey power at debiasing the NEO population. ATLAS has a much larger sky coverage than CSS, allowing it to find bright NEOs that would be constantly "hiding" from CSS. Consequently, ATLAS is more powerful than CSS at debiasing the NEO population for H $\lesssim$ 19. With its intrinsically greater sensitivity and emphasis on observing near opposition, CSS excels in the debiasing of smaller objects. ATLAS, as an all sky survey designed to find imminent hazardous objects, necessarily spends a significant fraction of time looking at places on the sky where objects do not appear, reducing its power for debiasing the population of small objects. We estimate a NEO population completeness of $\approx$ 88%$^{+3\%}_{-2\%}$ for H $<$ 17.75 and $\approx$ 36%$^{+1\%}_{-1\%}$ for H $<$ 22.25. Those numbers are similar to previous estimates (within error bars for H $<$ 17.75) from CSS, yet, around 3% and 8% smaller at their face values, respectively. We also confirm previous finding that the $\nu_6$ secular resonance is the main source of small and faint NEOs at H = 28, whereas the 3:1 mean motion resonance with Jupiter dominates for larger and brighter NEOs at H = 15., Comment: Accepted for publication in Icarus, 26 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables

Photometric measurements allow the determination of an asteroid's absolute magnitude, which often represents the sole means to infer its size. Photometric observations can be obtained in a variety of filters that can be unique to a specific observatory. Those observations are then calibrated into specific bands with respect to reference star catalogs. In order to combine all the different measurements for evaluation, photometric observations need to be converted to a common band, typically V-band. Current band-correction schemes in use by IAU's Minor Planet Center, JPL's Center for Near Earth Object Studies and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre use average correction values for the apparent magnitude derived from photometry of asteroids as the corrections are dependent on the typically unknown spectrum of the object to be corrected. By statistically analyzing the photometric residuals of asteroids, we develop a new photometric correction scheme that does not only consider the band, but also accounts for reference catalog and observatory. We describe a new statistical photometry correction scheme for asteroid observations with debiased corrections. Testing this scheme on a reference group of asteroids, we see a 36% reduction in the photometric residuals. Moreover, the new scheme leads to a more accurate and debiased determination of the H-G magnitude system and, in turn, to more reliable inferred sizes. We discuss the significant shift in the corrections with this "DePhOCUS" debiasing system, its limitations, and the impact for photometric and physical properties of all asteroids, especially Near-Earth Objects.

So-called 'dark comets' are small, morphologically inactive near-Earth objects (NEOs) that exhibit nongravitational accelerations inconsistent with radiative effects. These objects exhibit short rotational periods (minutes to hours), where measured. We find that the strengths required to prevent catastrophic disintegration are consistent with those measured in cometary nuclei and expected in rubble pile objects. We hypothesize that these dark comets are the end result of a rotational fragmentation cascade, which is consistent with their measured physical properties. We calculate the predicted size-frequency distribution for objects evolving under this model. Using dynamical simulations, we further demonstrate that the majority of these bodies originated from the $\nu_6$ resonance, implying the existence of volatiles in the current inner main belt. Moreover, one of the dark comets, (523599) 2003 RM, likely originated from the outer main belt, although a JFC origin is also plausible. These results provide strong evidence that volatiles from a reservoir in the inner main belt are present in the near-Earth environment., Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 12 supplementary figures & pages. Accepted for publication in Icarus

Our previous model (NEOMOD2) for the orbital and absolute magnitude distribution of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) was calibrated on the Catalina Sky Survey observations between 2013 and 2022. Here we extend NEOMOD2 to include visible albedo information from the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer. The debiased albedo distribution of NEOs can be approximated by the sum of two Rayleigh distributions with the scale parameters p_V,dark=0.03 and p_V,bright=0.17. We find evidence for smaller NEOs having (on average) higher albedos than larger NEOs; this is likely a consequence of the size-dependent sampling of different main belt sources. These inferences and the absolute magnitude distribution from NEOMOD2 are used to construct the debiased size distribution of NEOs. We estimate 830+/-60 NEOs with diameters D>1 km and 20,000+/-2,000 NEOs with D>140 m. The new model, NEOMOD3, is available via the NEOMOD Simulator -- an easy-to-operate code that can be used to generate user-defined samples (orbits, sizes and albedos) from the model., Comment: Icarus, in press

Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) is a major survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). In a recent work, we used CSS observations from 2005-2012 to develop a new population model of NEOs (NEOMOD). CSS's G96 telescope was upgraded in 2016 and detected over 10,000 unique NEOs since then. Here we characterize the NEO detection efficiency of G96 and use G96's NEO detections from 2013-2022 to update NEOMOD. This resolves previous model inconsistencies related to the population of large NEOs. We estimate there are 936+/-29 NEOs with absolute magnitude H<17.75 (diameter D>1 km for the reference albedo p_V=0.14). The slope of the NEO size distribution for H=25-28 is found to be relatively shallow (cumulative index 2.6) and the number of H<28 NEOs (D>9 m) is determined to be (1.20+/-0.04)x10^7. Small NEOs have a different orbital distribution and higher impact probabilities than large NEOs. We estimate 0.034+/-0.002 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is near the low end of the impact flux range inferred from atmospheric bolide observations. Relative to a model where all NEOs are delivered directly from the main belt, the population of small NEOs detected by G96 shows an excess of low-eccentricity orbits with a=1--1.6 au that appears to increase with H. We suggest that the population of very small NEOs is boosted by tidal disruption of large NEOs during close encounters to the terrestrial planets. When the effect of tidal disruption is (approximately) accounted for in the model, we estimate 0.06+/-0.01 impacts of H<28 NEOs on the Earth per year, which is more in line with the bolide data., Comment: Icarus, in press. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2306.09521

Significant nonradial, nongravitational accelerations with magnitudes incompatible with radiation-driven effects have been reported in seven small, photometrically inactive near-Earth objects. Two of these objects exhibit large transverse accelerations (i.e., within the orbital plane but orthogonal to the radial direction), and six exhibit significant out-of-plane accelerations. Here, we find that anisotropic outgassing resulting from differential heating on a nucleus with nonzero spin-pole obliquity, averaged over an eccentric orbit, can explain these accelerations for most of the objects. This balanced outgassing model depends on three parameters -- the spin pole orientation (R.A. and Dec.) and an acceleration magnitude. For these "dark comets" (excepting 2003 RM), we obtain parameter values that reproduce the observed nongravitational accelerations. We derive formulae for the component accelerations under certain assumptions for the acceleration scaling over heliocentric distance. Although we lack estimates of these objects' spin axes to confirm our values, this mechanism is nevertheless a plausible explanation for the observed accelerations, and produces accurate perturbations to the heliocentric motions of most of these objects. This model may also be applied to active objects outside of the dark comets group., Comment: 17 pages, 4 figures. Published in Icarus

We attempt to a detect signal of Yarkovsky-related acceleration in the orbits of 134 main belt asteroids (MBAs) we observed with the University of Hawai'i 88 inch telescope, supplemented with observations publicly available from the Minor Planet Center and Gaia Data Release 3. We estimated expected Yarkovsky acceleration values based on parameters derived through thermophysical modeling, but we were not able to find any reliable detections of Yarkovsky in our sample. Through tests with synthetic observations however, we estimated the minimum observational arc length needed to detect the Yarkovsky effect for all of our sample MBAs, which in nearly every case exceeded the current arc length of the existing observations. We find that the Yarkovsky effect could be detectable within a couple of decades of discovery for a 100 m MBA assuming 0.1" astrometric accuracy, which is at the size range detectable by the upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time., Comment: 28 pages, 6 figures, 6 tables, accepted by PSJ

Using the OSIRIS-REx mission and ground-based tracking data for the asteroid Bennu, we derive new constraints on fifth forces and ultralight dark matter. The bounds we obtain are strongest for mediator masses $m \sim 10^{-18} - 10^{-17}\,{\rm eV}$, where we currently achieve the tightest bounds. Our limits can be translated to a wide class of models leading to Yukawa-type fifth forces, and we demonstrate how they apply to $U(1)_B$ dark photons and baryon-coupled scalars. Our results demonstrate the potential of asteroid tracking in probing well-motivated extensions of the Standard Model and ultralight dark matter satisfying the fuzzy dark matter constraints., Comment: 1 figure, 7 pages plus references

Interstellar objects (ISOs) are small bodies that can travel through our solar system from other star systems. When present in our solar system, they represent an opportunity to study the properties and origins of these objects, as well as the potential for cross-pollination of material between star systems. With current propulsion technology, rendezvous with these objects is likely infeasible, and thus the maximum science return results from a rapid response flyby and impactor. However, while trajectories to ISOs may be feasible, their potentially high ephemeris uncertainties and high-speed hyperbolic orbits present significant challenges to navigation. In this paper we assess these challenges by modeling the uncertainties of reachable synthetic ISOs as a function of time, as derived by measurements from ground observatories and an approaching spacecraft. From these uncertainties we derive the final delivery accuracy of fast flyby spacecraft to the ISO and required statistical delta-v for navigation. We find that these two challenges can lead to hundreds of meters-per-second or even kilometers-per-second of required statistical delta-v for navigation, reduce delivery accuracy to hundreds of kilometers, and make autonomous navigation a requirement.

The catalog of km-sized near-Earth objects (NEOs) is nearly complete. Typical impact monitoring analyses search for possible impacts over the next 100 years and none of the km-sized objects represent an impact threat over that time interval. Assessing the impact risk over longer time scales is a challenge since orbital uncertainties grow. To overcome this limitation we analyze the evolution of the Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID), which bounds the closest possible encounters between the asteroid and the Earth. The evolution of the MOID highlights NEOs that are in the vicinity of the Earth for longer periods of time, and we propose a method to estimate the probability of a deep Earth encounter during these periods. This metric is used to rank the km-sized catalog in terms of their long-term impact hazard to identify targets of potential interest for additional observation and exploration., Comment: 20 pages, 17 figures, Accepted for Publication in The Astronomical Journal

We introduce ASSIST, a software package for ephemeris-quality integrations of test particles. ASSIST is an extension of the REBOUND framework and makes use of its IAS15 integrator to integrate test particle trajectories in the field of the Sun, Moon, planets, and 16 massive asteroids, with the positions of the masses coming from the JPL DE441 ephemeris and its associated asteroid perturber file. The package incorporates the most significant gravitational harmonics and general relativistic corrections. ASSIST also accounts for position- and velocity-dependent non-gravitational effects. The first order variational equations are included for all terms to support orbit fitting and covariance mapping. This new framework is meant to provide an open-source package written in a modern language to enable high-precision orbital analysis and science by the small body community. ASSIST is open source, freely distributed under the GNU General Public license, version 3., Comment: Submitted to PSJ (27 January 2023), Revised (28 March 2023)

We report a statistically significant detection of nongravitational acceleration on the sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroid (523599) 2003 RM. Due to its orbit, 2003 RM experiences favorable observing apparitions every 5 years. Thus, since its discovery, 2003 RM has been extensively tracked with ground-based optical facilities in 2003, 2008, 2013, and 2018. We find that the observed plane-of-sky positions cannot be explained with a purely gravity-driven trajectory. Including a transverse nongravitational acceleration allows us to match all observational data, but its magnitude is inconsistent with perturbations typical of asteroids such as the Yarkovsky effect or solar radiation pressure. After ruling out that the orbital deviations are due to a close approach or collision with another asteroid, we hypothesize that this anomalous acceleration is caused by unseen cometary outgassing. A detailed search for evidence of cometary activity with archival and deep observations from Pan-STARRS and the VLT does not reveal any detectable dust production. However, the best-fitting H$_2$O sublimation model allows for brightening due to activity consistent with the scatter of the data. We estimate the production rate required for H$_2$O outgassing to power the acceleration, and find that, assuming a diameter of 300 m, 2003 RM would require Q(H$_2$O)$\sim10^{23}$ molec s$^{-1}$ at perihelion. We investigate the recent dynamical history of 2003 RM and find that the object most likely originated in the mid-to-outer main belt ($\sim86\%$) as opposed to from the Jupiter-family comet region ($\sim11\%$). Further observations, especially in the infrared, could shed light on the nature of this anomalous acceleration., Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, accepted by the Planetary Science Journal

We report statistically significant detections of non-radial nongravitational accelerations based on astrometric data in the photometrically inactive objects 1998 KY$_{26}$, 2005 VL$_1$, 2016 NJ$_{33}$, 2010 VL$_{65}$, 2016 RH$_{120}$, and 2010 RF$_{12}$. The magnitudes of the nongravitational accelerations are greater than those typically induced by the Yarkovsky effect and there is no radiation-based, non-radial effect that can be so large. Therefore, we hypothesize that the accelerations are driven by outgassing, and calculate implied H$_2$O production rates for each object. We attempt to reconcile outgassing induced acceleration with the lack of visible comae or photometric activity via the absence of surface dust and low levels of gas production. Although these objects are small and some are rapidly rotating, surface cohesive forces are stronger than the rotational forces and rapid rotation alone cannot explain the lack of surface debris. It is possible that surface dust was removed previously, perhaps via outgassing activity that increased the rotation rates to their present day value. We calculate dust production rates of order $\sim10^{-4}$ g s$^{-1}$ in each object assuming that the nuclei are bare, within the upper limits of dust production from a sample stacked image of 1998 KY$_{26}$ of $\dot{M}_{\rm Dust}<0.2$ g s$^{-1}$. This production corresponds to brightness variations of order $\sim0.0025\%$, which are undetectable in extant photometric data. We assess the future observability of each of these targets, and find that the orbit of 1998 KY$_{26}$ -- which is also the target for the extended Hayabusa2 mission -- exhibits favorable viewing geometry before 2025., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in the Planetary Science Journal

We used the times of occultations and eclipses between the components of the 65803 Didymos binary system observed in its lightcurves from 2003-2021 to estimate the orbital parameters of Dimorphos relative to Didymos. We employed a weighted least-squares approach and a modified Keplerian orbit model in order to accommodate the effects from non-gravitational forces such as Binary YORP that could cause a linear change in mean motion over time. We estimate that the period of the mutual orbit at the epoch 2022 September 26.0 TDB, the day of the DART impact, is $11.9214869 \pm 0.000028$~h ($1\sigma$) and that the mean motion of the orbit is changing at a rate of $(5.0\pm 1.0)\times 10^{-18}$~rad s$^{-2}$ $(1\sigma$). The formal $3\sigma$ uncertainty in orbital phase of Dimorphos during the planned Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is $5.4^\circ$. Observations from July to September 2022, a few months to days prior to the DART impact, should provide modest improvements to the orbital phase uncertainty and reduce it to about $4.2^\circ$. These results, generated using a relatively simple model, are consistent with those generated using the more sophisticated model of \citet{scheirich22}, which demonstrates the reliability of our method and adds confidence to these mission-critical results., Comment: Accepted to PSJ

We derive purely gravitational constraints on dark matter and cosmic neutrino profiles in the solar system using asteroid (101955) Bennu. We focus on Bennu because of its extensive tracking data and high-fidelity trajectory modeling resulting from the OSIRIS-REx mission. We find that the local density of dark matter is bound by $\rho_{\rm DM}\lesssim 3.3\times 10^{-15}\;\rm kg/m^3 \simeq 6\times10^6\,\bar{\rho}_{\rm DM}$, in the vicinity of $\sim 1.1$ au (where $\bar{\rho}_{\rm DM}\simeq 0.3\;\rm GeV/cm^3$). We show that high-precision tracking data of solar system objects can constrain cosmic neutrino overdensities relative to the Standard Model prediction $\bar{n}_{\nu}$, at the level of $\eta\equiv n_\nu/\bar{n}_{\nu}\lesssim 1.7 \times 10^{11}(0.1 \;{\rm eV}/m_\nu)$ (Saturn), comparable to the existing bounds from KATRIN and other previous laboratory experiments (with $m_\nu$ the neutrino mass). These local bounds have interesting implications for existing and future direct-detection experiments. Our constraints apply to all dark matter candidates but are particularly meaningful for scenarios including solar halos, stellar basins, and axion miniclusters, which predict or allow overdensities in the solar system. Furthermore, introducing a DM-SM long-range fifth force with a strength $\tilde{\alpha}_D$ times stronger than gravity, Bennu can set a constraint on $\rho_{\rm DM}\lesssim \bar{\rho}_{\rm DM}\left(6 \times 10^6/\tilde{\alpha}_D\right)$. These constraints can be improved in the future as the accuracy of tracking data improves, observational arcs increase, and more missions visit asteroids., Comment: 2 figures, 2 tables, 9 pages plus references

The European Space Agency Rosetta/Philae mission to Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in 2014-2016 is the most complete and diverse investigation of a comet carried out thus far. Yet, many physical and chemical properties of the comet remain uncertain or unknown, and cometary activity is still not a well-understood phenomenon. We here attempt to place constraints on the nucleus abundances and sublimation front depths of H2O and CO2 ice, and to reconstruct how the nucleus evolved throughout the perihelion passage. We employ the thermophysical modelling code 'Numerical Icy Minor Body evolUtion Simulator', or NIMBUS, to search for conditions under which the observed H2O and CO2 production rates are simultaneously reproduced before and after perihelion. We find that the refractories to water-ice mass ratio of relatively pristine nucleus material is mu~1, that airfall material has mu~2, and that the molar abundance of CO2 relative H2O near 30 per cent. The dust mantle thickness is typically < 2 cm. The average CO2 sublimation front depths near aphelion were ~3.8 m and ~1.9 m on the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively, but varied substantially with time. We propose that airfall material is subjected to substantial fragmentation and pulverisation due to thermal fatigue during the aphelion passage. Sub-surface compaction of material due to CO2 activity near perihelion seems to have reduced the diffusivity in a measurable way., Comment: 22 pages, 19 figures. This is a pre--copyedited, author--produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in MNRAS following peer review

Orbit-determination programs find the orbit solution that best fits a set of observations by minimizing the RMS of the residuals of the fit. For near-Earth asteroids, the uncertainty of the orbit solution may be compatible with trajectories that impact Earth. This paper shows how incorporating the impact condition as an observation in the orbit-determination process results in a robust technique for finding the regions in parameter space leading to impacts. The impact pseudo-observation residuals are the b-plane coordinates at the time of close approach and the uncertainty is set to a fraction of the Earth radius. The extended orbit-determination filter converges naturally to an impacting solution if allowed by the observations. The uncertainty of the resulting orbit provides an excellent geometric representation of the virtual impactor. As a result, the impact probability can be efficiently estimated by exploring this region in parameter space using importance sampling. The proposed technique can systematically handle a large number of estimated parameters, account for nongravitational forces, deal with nonlinearities, and correct for non-Gaussian initial uncertainty distributions. The algorithm has been implemented into a new impact monitoring system at JPL called Sentry-II, which is undergoing extensive testing. The main advantages of Sentry-II over JPL's currently operating impact monitoring system Sentry are that Sentry-II can systematically process orbits perturbed by nongravitational forces and that it is generally more robust when dealing with pathological cases. The runtimes and completeness of both systems are comparable, with the impact probability of Sentry-II for 99% completeness being $3\times10^{-7}$., Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures. To be published in the Astronomical Journal

The June 2, 2018, impact of asteroid 2018 LA over Botswana is only the second asteroid detected in space prior to impacting over land. Here, we report on the successful recovery of meteorites. Additional astrometric data refine the approach orbit and define the spin period and shape of the asteroid. Video observations of the fireball constrain the asteroid's position in its orbit and were used to triangulate the location of the fireball's main flare over the Central Kalahari Game Reserve. 23 meteorites were recovered. A consortium study of eight of these classifies Motopi Pan as a HED polymict breccia derived from howardite, cumulate and basaltic eucrite, and diogenite lithologies. Before impact, 2018 LA was a solid rock of about 156 cm diameter with high bulk density about 2.85 g/cm3, a relatively low albedo pV about 0.25, no significant opposition effect on the asteroid brightness, and an impact kinetic energy of about 0.2 kt. The orbit of 2018 LA is consistent with an origin at Vesta (or its Vestoids) and delivery into an Earth-impacting orbit via the nu_6 resonance. The impact that ejected 2018 LA in an orbit towards Earth occurred 22.8 +/- 3.8 Ma ago. Zircons record a concordant U-Pb age of 4563 +/- 11 Ma and a consistent 207Pb/206Pb age of 4563 +/- 6 Ma. A much younger Pb-Pb phosphate resetting age of 4234 +/- 41 Ma was found. From this impact chronology, we discuss what is the possible source crater of Motopi Pan and the age of Vesta's Veneneia impact basin., Comment: Meteoritics & Planetary Science (2021)

In December 2018, the main-belt asteroid (6478)~Gault was reported to display activity. Gault is an asteroid belonging to the Phocaea dynamical family and was not previously known to be active, nor was any other member of the Phocaea family. In this work we present the results of photometric and spectroscopic observations that commenced soon after the discovery of activity. We obtained observations over two apparitions to monitor its activity, rotation period, composition, and possible non-gravitational orbital evolution. We find that Gault has a rotation period of $P = 2.4929 \pm 0.0003$ hours with a lightcurve amplitude of $0.06$ magnitude. This short rotation period close to the spin barrier limit is consistent with Gault having a density no smaller than $\rho = 1.85$~g/cm$^3$ and its activity being triggered by the YORP spin-up mechanism. Analysis of the Gault phase curve over phase angles ranging from $0.4^{\circ}$ to $23.6^{\circ}$ provides an absolute magnitude of $H = 14.81 \pm 0.04$, $G1=0.25 \pm 0.07$, and $G2= 0.38 \pm 0.04$. Model fits to the phase curve find the surface regolith grain size constrained between 100-500 $\rm{\mu}$m. Using relations between the phase curve and albedo we determine that the geometrical albedo of Gault is $p_{\rm v} = 0.26 \pm 0.05$ corresponding to an equivalent diameter of $D = 2.8^{+0.4}_{-0.2}$ km. Our spectroscopic observations are all consistent with an ordinary chondrite-like composition (S, or Q-type in the Bus-DeMeo taxonomic classification). A search through archival photographic plate surveys found previously unidentified detections of Gault dating back to 1957 and 1958. Only the latter had been digitized, which we measured to nearly double the observation arc of Gault. Finally, we did not find any signal of activity during the 2020 apparition or non-gravitational effects on its orbit., Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures; Accepted in MNRAS

Far ultraviolet observations of comets yield information about the energetic processes that dissociate the sublimated gases from their primitive surfaces. Understanding which emission processes are dominant, their effects on the observed cometary spectrum, and how to properly invert the spectrum back to composition of the presumably pristine surface ices of a comet nuclei are all critical components for proper interpretation and analysis of comets. The close approach of comet 46P/Wirtanen in 2018-2019 provided a unique opportunity to study the inner most parts of a cometary coma with the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph, rarely accessible with remote observations, at length scales (100's of km) and wavelengths (900-1430 Angstroms) previously probed only by the European Space Agency's Rosetta spacecraft. Our observations show a complex picture for the inner coma; atomic production rates for H and O that show water is the dominant source of both, an abundance of atomic sulfur that is difficult to explain with the lifetimes of common sulfur parent molecules, and a density distribution that is poorly fit with both Haser and vectorial models., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures. Accepted in A'Hearn Special Issue of Planetary Science Journal

We report on our detailed characterization of Earth's second known temporary natural satellite, or minimoon, asteroid 2020 CD3. An artificial origin can be ruled out based on its area-to-mass ratio and broadband photometry, which suggest that it is a silicate asteroid belonging to the S or V complex in asteroid taxonomy. The discovery of 2020 CD3 allows for the first time a comparison between known minimoons and theoretical models of their expected physical and dynamical properties. The estimated diameter of 1.2+0.4-0.2 m and geocentric capture approximately a decade after the first known minimoon, 2006 RH120, are in agreement with theoretical predictions. The capture duration of 2020 CD3 of at least 2.7 yr is unexpectedly long compared to the simulation average, but it is in agreement with simulated minimoons that have close lunar encounters, providing additional support for the orbital models. 2020 CD3's atypical rotation period, significantly longer than theoretical predictions, suggests that our understanding of meter-scale asteroids needs revision. More discoveries and a detailed characterization of the population can be expected with the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time., Comment: 22 pages, 6 Figures, 5 Tables, to appear in the Astronomical Journal

The discovery of the second interstellar object 2I/Borisov on 2019 August 30 raises the question of whether it was ejected recently from a nearby stellar system. Here we compute the asymptotic incoming trajectory of 2I/Borisov, based on both recent and pre-discovery data extending back to December 2018, using a range of force models that account for cometary outgassing. From Gaia DR2 astrometry and radial velocities, we trace back in time the Galactic orbits of 7.4 million stars to look for close encounters with 2I/Borisov. The closest encounter we find took place 910kyr ago with the M0V star Ross 573, at a separation of 0.068pc (90% confidence interval of 0.053-0.09pc) with a relative velocity of 23km/s. This encounter is nine times closer than the closest past encounter identified for the first interstellar object 1I/'Oumuamua. Ejection of 2I/Borisov via a three-body encounter in a binary or planetary system is possible, although such a large ejection velocity is unlikely to be obtained and Ross 573 shows no signs of binarity. We also identify and discuss some other recent close encounters, recognizing that if 2I/Borisov is more than about 10Myr old, our search would be unlikely to find its parent system., Comment: 7 pages; accepted to A&A

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) that orbit the Sun on or within Earth's orbit are tricky to detect for Earth-based observers due to their proximity to the Sun in the sky. These small bodies hold clues to the dynamical history of the inner solar system as well as the physical evolution of planetesimals in extreme environments. Populations in this region include the Atira and Vatira asteroids, as well as Venus and Earth co-orbital asteroids. Here we present a twilight search for these small bodies, conducted using the 1.2-m Oschin Schmidt and the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) camera at Palomar Observatory. The ZTF twilight survey operates at solar elongations down to $35^\circ$ with limiting magnitude of $r=19.5$. During a total of 40 evening sessions and 62 morning sessions conducted between 2018 November 15 and 2019 June 23, we detected 6 Atiras, including 2 new discoveries 2019 AQ$_3$ and 2019 LF$_6$, but no Vatiras or Earth/Venus co-orbital asteroids. NEO population models show that these new discoveries are likely only the tip of the iceberg, with the bulk of the population yet to be found. The population models also suggest that we have only detected 5--$7\%$ of the $H<20$ Atira population over the 7-month survey. Co-orbital asteroids are smaller in diameters and require deeper surveys. A systematic and efficient survey of the near-Sun region will require deeper searches and/or facilities that can operate at small solar elongations., Comment: AJ accepted

The Pioneer 10 and 11 and Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft, launched in the 1970s, are heading out of the solar system. Using the astrometric and radial velocity data from the second Gaia data release, we integrate the trajectories of 7.4 million stars, and the spacecraft, through a Galactic potential in order to identify those stars the spacecraft will pass closest to. The closest encounters for all spacecraft take place at separations between 0.2 and 0.5 pc within the next million years. The closest encounter will be by Pioneer 10 with the K8 dwarf HIP 117795, at 0.23 pc in 90 kyr at a high relative velocity of 291 km/s., Comment: Extended version of our article published on 3 April 2019 in RNAAS

Comet 2I/Borisov, the first unambiguous interstellar comet ever found, was discovered in August 2019 at $\sim3$ au from the Sun on its inbound leg. No pre-discovery detection beyond 3 au has yet been reported, mostly due to the comet's proximity to the Sun as seen from the Earth. Here we present a search for pre-discovery detections of comet Borisov using images taken by the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS), Pan-STARRS and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), with a further comprehensive follow-up campaign being presented in \citet{Bolin2019}. We identified comet Borisov in ZTF images taken in May 2019 and use these data to update its orbit. This allowed us to identify the comet in images acquired as far back as December 2018, when it was 7.8 au from the Sun. The comet was not detected in November 2018 when it was 8.6 au from the Sun, possibly implying an onset of activity around this time. This suggests that the activity of the comet is either driven by a more volatile species other than H$_2$O, such as CO or CO$_2$, or by exothermic crystallization of amorphous ice. We derive the radius of the nucleus to be $<7$ km using the non-detection in November 2018, and estimate an area of $\sim0.5$---$10 \mathrm{km^2}$ has been active between December 2018 and September 2019, though this number is model-dependent and is highly uncertain. The behavior of comet Borisov during its inbound leg is observationally consistent with dynamically new comets observed in our solar system, suggesting some similarities between the two., Comment: AJ in press

Astrometric positions of moving objects in the Solar System have been measured using a variety of star catalogs in the past. Previous work has shown that systematic errors in star catalogs can affect the accuracy of astrometric observations. That, in turn, can influence the resulting orbit fits for minor planets. In order to quantify these systematic errors, we compare the positions and proper motion of stellar sources in the most utilized star catalogs to the second release of the Gaia star catalog. The accuracy of Gaia astrometry allows us to unambiguously identify local biases and derive a scheme that can be used to correct past astrometric observations of solar system objects. Here we provide a substantially improved debiasing scheme for 26 astrometric catalogs that were extensively used in minor planet astrometry. Revised corrections near the galactic center eliminate artifacts that could be traced back to reference catalogs used in previous debiasing schemes. Median differences in stellar positions between catalogs now tend to be on the order of several tens of milliarcseconds (mas) but can be as large as 175 mas. Median stellar proper motion corrections scatter around 0.3 mas/yr and range from 1 to 4 mas/yr for star catalogs with and without proper motion, respectively. The tables in this work are meant to be applied to existing optical observations. They are not intended to correct new astrometric measurments as those should make use of the Gaia astrometric catalog. Since previous debiasing schemes already reduced systematics in past observations to a large extent, corrections beyond the current work may not be needed in the foreseeable future., Comment: submitted to Icarus

Near-Earth asteroid (410777) 2009 FD is a potentially hazardous asteroid with potential impacts on Earth at the end of the 22nd century. The astrometry collected during the 2019 apparition provides information on the trajectory of (410777) by constraining the Yarkovsky effect, which is the main source of uncertainty for future predictions, and informing the impact hazard assessment. We included the Yarkovsky effect in the force model and estimated its magnitude from the fit to the (410777) optical and radar astrometric data. We performed the (410777) hazard assessment over 200 years by using two independent approaches: the NEODyS group adopted a generalisation of the Line Of Variations method in a 7-dimensional space, whereas the JPL team resorted to the Multilayer Clustered Sampling technique. We obtain a 4-sigma detection of the Yarkovsky effect acting on (410777), which corresponds to a semimajor axis drift of (3.6 +/- 0.9) x 10^{-3} au/Myr. As for the hazard results of both teams, the main impact possibility in 2185 is ruled out and the only remaining one is in 2190, but with a probability smaller than 10^{-8}., Comment: 8 pages, 2 figures

Though pairs of dynamically associated asteroids in the Main Belt have been identified and studied for over a decade, very few pair systems have been identified in the near-Earth asteroid population. We present data and analysis that supports the existence of two genetically related pairs in near-Earth space. The members of the individual systems, 2015 EE7 -- 2015 FP124 and 2017 SN16 -- 2018 RY7, are found to be of the same spectral taxonomic class, and both pairs are interpreted to have volatile-poor compositions. In conjunction with dynamical arguments, this suggests that these two systems formed via YORP spin-up and/or dissociation of a binary precursor. Backwards orbital integrations suggest a separation age of <10 kyr for the pair 2017 SN16 -- 2018 RY7, making these objects amongst the youngest multiple asteroid systems known to date. A unique separation age was not realized for 2015 EE7 -- 2015 FP124 due to large uncertainties associated with these objects' orbits. Determining the ages of such young pairs is of great value for testing models of space weathering and asteroid spin-state evolution. As the NEO catalog continues to grow with current and future discovery surveys, it is expected that more NEO pairs will be found, thus providing an ideal laboratory for studying time dependent evolutionary processes that are relevant to asteroids throughout the Solar System., Comment: 8 figures, 2 tables; Accepted to Icarus

We present a photometric and dynamical study of comet C/2010 U3 (Boattini), which was seen active in prediscovery data as early as 2005 November at a new inbound record heliocentric distance $r_{\rm H} = 25.8$ au. Two outburst events around 2009 and 2017 were observed. The coma and tail of the comet consist of dust grains of $\sim$10 $\mu$m in radius, ejected protractedly at speeds $\lesssim$50 m s$^{-1}$ near the subsolar point, and are subjected to the Lorentz force, solar gravitation and radiation pressure force altogether. The prolonged activity indicates that sublimation of supervolatiles (e.g., CO, CO$_2$) is at play, causing a net mass-loss rate $\gtrsim$1 kg s$^{-1}$. To sustain the mass loss, the nucleus radius has to be $\gtrsim$0.1 km. The color of the cometary dust, similar to other long-period comets, is redder than the solar colors, but we also observed potential color variations when the comet was at $10 < r_{\rm H} < 15$ au, concurrent with the onset of crystallisation of amorphous water ice, if at all. Using publicly available and our refined astrometric measurements, we estimated the precise trajectory of the comet and propagated it backward to its previous perihelion. We found that the comet has visited the planetary region $1.96 \pm 0.04$ Myr ago, with barycentric perihelion distance $q = 8.364 \pm 0.004$ au. Thus, C/2010 U3 (Boattini) is almost certainly a dynamically old comet from the Oort cloud, and the observed activity cannot be caused by retained heat from the previous apparition., Comment: Accepted by AJ

The recent close approach of the NEA (3200) Phaethon offered a rare opportunity to obtain high-quality observational data. We used the newly obtained optical light curves to improve the spin and shape model of Phaethon and to determine its surface physical properties derived by thermophysical modeling. We also used the available astrometric observations of Phaethon, including those obtained by the Arecibo radar and the Gaia spacecraft, to constrain the secular drift of the orbital semimajor axis. This constraint allowed us to estimate the bulk density by assuming that the drift is dominated by the Yarkovsky effect. We used the convex inversion model to derive the 3D shape model of Phaethon, and a detailed numerical approach for an accurate analysis of the Yarkovsky effect. We obtained a unique solution for Phaethon's pole orientation at $(318,-47)^{\circ}$ ecliptic longitude and latitude (uncertainty of $5^{\circ}$), and confirm the previously reported thermophysical properties ($D=5.1\pm0.2$ km, $\Gamma=600\pm200$ SI). Phaethon has a top-like shape with possible north-south asymmetry. The characteristic size of the regolith grains is 1-2 cm. The orbit analysis reveals a secular drift of the semimajor axis of $-(6.9\pm1.9)\times 10^{-4}$ au Myr$^{-1}$. With the derived volume-equivalent size of 5.1~km, the bulk density $\rho$ is $1.67\pm0.47$ g cm$^{-3}$. If the size is slightly larger $\sim5.7$ km, as suggested by radar data, $\rho$ would decrease to $1.48\pm0.42$ g cm$^{-3}$. We further investigated the suggestion that Phaethon may be in a cluster with asteroids (155140) 2005 UD and (225416) 1999 YC that was formed by rotational fission of a critically spinning parent body. Phaethon's $\rho$ is consistent with typical values for large ($>100$ km) C-complex asteroids and supports its association with asteroid (2) Pallas. These findings render a cometary origin unlikely for Phaethon., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A

We present an updated set of near-Earth asteroids with a Yarkovsky-related semimajor axis drift detected from the orbital fit to the astrometry. We find 87 reliable detections after filtering for the signal-to-noise ratio of the Yarkovsky drift estimate and making sure the estimate is compatible with the physical properties of the analyzed object. Furthermore, we find a list of 24 marginally significant detections, for which future astrometry could result in a Yarkovsky detection. A further outcome of the filtering procedure is a list of detections that we consider spurious because unrealistic or not explicable with the Yarkovsky effect. Among the smallest asteroids of our sample, we determined four detections of solar radiation pressure, in addition to the Yarkovsky effect. As the data volume increases in the near future, our goal is to develop methods to generate very long lists of asteroids with reliably detected Yarkovsky effect, with limited amounts of case by case specific adjustments. Furthermore, we discuss the improvements this work could bring to impact monitoring. In particular, we exhibit two asteroids for which the adoption of a non-gravitational model is needed to make reliable impact predictions., Comment: 36 pages, 1 figure

We studied the Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) candidates posted on the Minor Planet Center's Near-Earth Object Confirmation Page (NEOCP) between years 2013 and 2016. Out of more than 17,000 NEA candidates, while the majority became either new discoveries or were associated with previously known objects, about 11% were unable to be followed-up or confirmed. We further demonstrate that of the unconfirmed candidates, 926+/-50 are likely to be NEAs, representing 18% of discovered NEAs in that period. Only 11% (~93) of the unconfirmed NEA candidates were large (having absolute magnitude H<22). To identify the reasons why these NEAs were not recovered, we analyzed those from the most prolific asteroid surveys: Pan-STARRS, the Catalina Sky Survey, the Dark Energy Survey, and the Space Surveillance Telescope. We examined the influence of plane-of-sky positions and rates of motion, brightnesses, submission delays, and computed absolute magnitudes, as well as correlations with the phase of the moon and seasonal effects. We find that delayed submission of newly discovered NEA candidate to the NEOCP drove a large fraction of the unconfirmed NEA candidates. A high rate of motion was another significant contributing factor. We suggest that prompt submission of suspected NEA discoveries and rapid response to fast moving targets and targets with fast growing ephemeris uncertainty would allow better coordination among dedicated follow-up observers, decrease the number of unconfirmed NEA candidates, and increase the discovery rate of NEAs., Comment: 35 pages, 19 figures, 8 tables

We imaged Comet 252P/2000 G1 (LINEAR) (hereafter 252P) with the Hubble Space Telescope and both 252P and P/2016 BA$_{14}$ (PanSTARRS) (hereafter BA$_{14}$) with the Discovery Channel Telescope in March and April 2016, surrounding its close encounter to Earth. The r'-band $Af\rho$ of 252P in a 0.2"-radius aperture were $16.8\pm0.3$ and $57\pm1$ cm on March 14 and April 4, respectively, and its gas production rates were: $Q$(OH) = $(5.8\pm0.1)\times10^{27}$ s$^{-1}$, and $Q$(CN) = $(1.25\pm0.01)\times10^{25}$ s$^{-1}$ on April 17. The r'-band upper limit $Af\rho$ of BA1$_{14}$ was $0.19\pm0.01$ cm in a 19.2"-radius aperture, and $Q$(CN) = $(1.4\pm0.1)10^{22}$ s$^{-1}$ on April 17, 2017. 252P shows a bright and narrow jet of a few hundred kilometers long in the sunward direction, changing its projected position angle in the sky with a periodicity consistent with 7.24 hours. However, its photometric lightcurve is consistent with a periodicity of 5.41 hours. We suggest that the nucleus of 252P is likely in a non-principal axis rotation. The nucleus radius of 252P is estimated to be about $0.3\pm0.03$ km, indicating an active fraction of 40% to >100% in its 2016 apparition. Evidence implies a possible cloud of slow-moving grains surrounding the nucleus. The activity level of 252P in the 2016 apparition increased by two orders of magnitude from its previous apparitions, making this apparition unusual. On the other hand, the activity level of BA14 appears to be at least three orders of magnitude lower than that of 252P, despite its ten times or larger surface area., Comment: 31 pages, 15 figures, 4 tables, accepted by AJ

We performed a statistical analysis of the astrometric errors for the major asteroid surveys. We analyzed the astrometric residuals as a function of observation epoch, observed brightness and rate of motion, finding that astrometric errors are larger for faint observations and some stations improved their astrometric quality over time. Based on this statistical analysis we develop a new weighting scheme to be used when performing asteroid orbit determination. The proposed weights result in ephemeris predictions that can be conservative by a factor as large as 1.5. However, the new scheme is more robust with respect to outliers and better handles faint detections., Comment: 25 pages, 11 figures, 5 tables

We present deep imaging observations, orbital dynamics, and dust tail model analyses of the double-component asteroid P/2016 J1 (J1-A and J1-B). The observations were acquired at the Gran Telescopio Canarias (GTC) and the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) from mid March to late July, 2016. A statistical analysis of backward-in-time integrations of the orbits of a large sample of clone objects of P/2016 J1-A and J1-B shows that the minimum separation between them occurred most likely $\sim$2300 days prior to the current perihelion passage, i.e., during the previous orbit near perihelion. This closest approach was probably linked to a fragmentation event of their parent body. Monte Carlo dust tail models show that those two components became active simultaneously $\sim$250 days before the current perihelion, with comparable maximum loss rates of $\sim$0.7 kg s$^{-1}$ and $\sim$0.5 kg s$^{-1}$, and total ejected masses of 8$\times$10$^{6}$ kg and 6$\times$10$^{6}$ kg for fragments J1-A and J1-B, respectively. In consequence, the fragmentation event and the present dust activity are unrelated. The simultaneous activation times of the two components and the fact that the activity lasted 6 to 9 months or longer, strongly indicate ice sublimation as the most likely mechanism involved in the dust emission process., Comment: Accepted by ApJ Letters, Feb. 17, 2017