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The melting of Arctic ice has facilitated the successful navigation of merchant ships through the Arctic route, often requiring icebreakers for assistance. To reduce the risk of accidents between merchant vessels and icebreakers stemming from human errors during operations, this paper introduces an enhanced human reliability assessment approach. This method utilizes the Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model, integrated with the information, decision, and action in crew context (IDAC) framework. First, a qualitative analysis of crew maneuvering behavior in scenarios involving a collision with the preceding vessel during icebreaker assistance is conducted using the IDAC model. Second, the D–S evidence theory and cloud models are integrated to process multi-source subjective data. Finally, the human error probability of crew members is quantified using the DBN. The research results indicate that during convoy operations, the maximum probability that the officer on watch (OOW) chooses an incorrect deceleration strategy is 8.259 × 10 − 2 and the collision probability is 4.129 × 10 − 3 . Furthermore, this study also found that the factors of Team Effectiveness and Knowledge/Abilities during convoy operations have the greatest impact on collision occurrence. This research provides important guidance and recommendations for the safe navigation of merchant ships in the Arctic waters. By reducing human errors and adopting appropriate preventive measures, the risk of collisions between merchant ships and icebreakers can be significantly decreased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bifunctional reactive polyhedral oligomeric silsesquioxane (POSS) of 3, 13‐divinyl octyphenyl silsesquioxane (DV‐DDSQ) and 3, 13‐dihydro octyphenyl silsesquioxane (DH‐DDSQ) were used as additive to modify ethylene‐propylene‐diene rubber (EPDM), and double vinyl groups or active hydrogen groups of bifunctional reactive POSS (brPOSS) underwent a cross‐linking reaction with the active hydrogen groups and double bonds of EPDM, to investigate the effect of brPOSS regulating functional reaction group on the properties of EPDM. Crosslinking density, mechanical properties, thermal stability and ablation performance of brPOSS modified EPDM were investigated, and the pyrolysis behavior and surface structure of modified EPDM was analyzed by X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Furthermore, the ablation performance of brPOSS modified insulation based on EPDM was investigated. The results showed that the tensile strength of EPDM/DV‐DDSQ and EPDM/DH‐DDSQ increased by 35.8% and 55.3% respectively compared with EPDM; the tear strength increased by 6.4% and 5% than that of EPDM. Moreover, the 5% initial thermal decomposition temperature based on thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and mass (or linear) ablation rate ablative performance of brPOSS modified EPDM were optimized to a certain extent, and the ablative performance of brPOSS modified insulation based on is significantly improved, the mass ablation rate of DV‐DDSQ/insulation and DH‐DDSQ/insulation decreased by 35.4% and 41.6% respectively, and linear ablation rate decreased by 38.2% and 39.4% respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative risk influencing factors (RIFs) are proposed, using the Conjugate Bayesian update approach to analyze 945 collision accidents and incidents cases from the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River over five years from 2012 to 2016. The accident probability is compared under a pairwise comparison mode in order to reflect the relative risk between accidental situations. The Bayesian update mode is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the relative importance of different RIFs. The riskiest segment of Jiangsu Waterways as well the main causations of collisions are identified based on the distributions of collision risk in the six segments of the waterways. The results can support managers to develop the most effective policies to mitigate the collision risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative risk influencing factors (RIFs) are proposed, using the Conjugate Bayesian update approach to analyze 945 collision accidents and incidents cases from the Jiangsu Segment of the Yangtze River over five years from 2012 to 2016. The accident probability is compared under a pairwise comparison mode in order to reflect the relative risk between accidental situations. The Bayesian update mode is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the relative importance of different RIFs. The riskiest segment of Jiangsu Waterways as well the main causations of collisions are identified based on the distributions of collision risk in the six segments of the waterways. The results can support managers to develop the most effective policies to mitigate the collision risk., (© 2020 Society for Risk Analysis.)