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Most analyses of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts compare outcomes of the second generation to the criminal history of the first generation. Ignoring the demographic process underlying transmission introduces selection bias into estimates insofar as the first generation's criminal history affects the family formation and the probability of parenthood. I study how differential selection into fatherhood across criminal histories may affect prospective transmission of criminal justice convictions. I use administrative data on the complete fertility patterns and criminal justice history all Danish men born during 1965–1973 and retrospective odds-ratio estimates of intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts to estimate prospective transmission of crime and the impact of differential fertility on cohort criminal justice involvement. Seriousness of criminal justice involvement is associated with earlier transition to fatherhood but ultimately higher levels of childlessness. The findings suggest that the existing retrospective estimates of the intergenerational transmission of criminal justice contacts overestimate the population level dynastic transmission. Ignoring differential fertility across criminal justice history leads to upward-biased estimates of how criminal justice involvement is maintained across generations when using retrospective sources. Population-level description of fertility trends has substantial implication for theoretical understanding of how transmission of offending occurs at the population level.

We examine the joint consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for fertility and birth outcomes by drawing on full population administrative data from Spain. We find a surprising improvement in birth outcomes in November and to a less extent in December 2020 (eight to nine months after the first wave of the pandemic) compared with monthly trends in the 10 previous years (2010–2019). The improvement in birth outcomes was shortly followed by a decline in fertility, which concentrated on first births, births to women without a tertiary degree, and births to young and old mothers, respectively. These findings are consistent with the idea that the pandemic selectively affected conception, which showed up first as an improvement in birth outcomes due to the missing conceptions of frail-children-to-be (preterm and low birth weight) and then as a lowered fertility rate due to the missing conception of at-term children.

Previous research identifies stark socioeconomic disparities in child injuries, yet research on the repercussions hereof on other aspects of children's lives remains sparse. This paper tests whether social gradients in minor traumatic brain injuries (mTBIs or concussions) contribute to corresponding inequalities in children's academic performance. Previous research on this topic is mostly based on small samples and confounded by non-random selection into experiencing mTBIs. We improve on prior research by using high quality, large N, administrative registry data. Further, we control for selection into having an mTBI via comparing the test score progression of children having an mTBI with children who experience an mTBI in later years (staggered difference-in-differences). Based on Danish ER/hospital records and national test score data, we find that children from families with lower earnings and less education are more likely to experience an mTBI and that having an mTBI negatively correlates with reading test scores. However, comparing present with future mTBI cases, we show that having an mTBI within a year before a test does not negatively affect children's reading scores. Our findings suggest that negative correlations between mTBIs and academic performance more likely reflect socioeconomic gradients in mTBI incidents rather than a direct causal effect. Further, socioeconomic gradients in mTBI incidents do not significantly contribute to corresponding disparities in academic performance.

Background. Early studies of common mental disorders (CMDs) during the COVID-19 pandemic mainly report increases; however, more recent findings have been mixed. Also, studies assessing the effects of restriction measures on CMDs show varied results. The aim of this meta-analysis was to assess changes in levels of CMDs from pre-/early to during the pandemic and the effects of restriction policies in the European population. Methods. We searched for studies assessing both pre-pandemic and peri-pandemic self-reported emotional distress and symptoms of depression or anxiety among nationally/regionally representative samples in Europe and collected microdata from those studies. Estimates of corona containment index were related to changes in CMDs using random-effects meta-regression. Results. Our search strategy resulted in findings from 15 datasets drawn from 8 European countries being included in the meta-analysis. There was no evidence of change in the prevalence of emotional distress, anxiety, or depression from before to during the pandemic; but from early pandemic periods to later periods, there were significant decreases in emotional distress and anxiety. Increased school restrictions and social distancing were associated with small increases in self-reported emotional distress. Conclusions. Despite initial concerns of increased emotional distress and mental illness due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the results from this meta-analysis indicate that there was a decrease in emotional distress and no change in anxiety or depression in the general population in Europe. Overall, our findings support the importance of strong governance when implementing periodic and robust restriction measures to combat the spread of COVID-19.

To assess the impact of the Financial Crisis and the Great Recession in Denmark this paper studies developments in Danish labor market income and disposable income from 1995 through 2019. We focus on the prime age working population of 25-54-year-old Danish citizens, with emphasis on labor market performance of the younger and less educated members of this labor force. The recession had a large and long-lasting impact on labor market earnings. Young individuals and, especially, those with least education suffered the largest setbacks to earnings developments. Disposable income was not affected in a similar way. Welfare state transfers and lower taxes softened the impact on disposable income, while the unprecedentedly low lending-rates and tax reform also elevated consumption possibilities. Tracking economic activity of the youngest cohorts after the onset of the Financial Crisis we find that catching up to earnings levels of previous cohorts took on average 8 years. For young men the setback to earnings was larger and catching-up slower. A decade following the onset of the Financial Crisis around 20% of young men, pertaining to the bottom of the earnings distribution, had still not caught up to the earnings of previous cohorts.

The Rockwool–Duke Global Child Welfare Database (RDGCWD) is a cross-national aggregate longitudinal data resource created to facilitate comparative research on children’s involvement with child welfare systems (CWS) and child protective services (CPS) across national contexts. The basis for the RDGCWD is harmonized data collected from national and transnational child welfare and statistical agencies on three types of contact: maltreatment investigation, substantiated maltreatment, and out-of-home placement. The database covers 44 countries for the period 2000–2020 with 33 country–year observations of children investigated by CWS/CPS, 104 country–year observations of investigations by CWS/CPS, 194 country–year observations of CWS/CPS confirmations of maltreatment, 66 country-year observations of children maltreated, 233 country–year observations of children entering out-of-home care, 402 country–year observations of children residing in out-of-home care at a specific point in time, and 55 country-year observations of entrances into care. Interested researchers can access the data at the National Data Archive on Child Abuse and Neglect (NDACAN).Previous article in issueNext article in issueThis research note introduces the Rockwool–Duke Global Child Welfare Database (RDGCWD) to the scientific community as a new publicly available research resource for comparative research on child welfare involvement. The RDGCWD compiles harmonized cross-national aggregate information from the Global North about children who experienced contact with child welfare systems (CWS) or child protective services (CPS) between 2000 and 2020. The RDGCWD provides a unique resource for comparative and longitudinal research on child maltreatment and child welfare systems for 44 countries, a substantial increase compared to previous comparative efforts (Gilbert et al., 2009, Gilbert et al., 2012, Jud et al., 2013). Data were collected from national child welfare agencies or national or transnation

Exposure to childhood poverty increases the likelihood of adult poverty. However, past research offers conflicting accounts of cross-national variation in the strength of the intergenerational persistence of poverty and the mechanisms through which it is channeled. This study investigates differences in intergenerational poverty in the United States (U.S.), Australia, Denmark, Germany, and United Kingdom (UK) using administrative- and survey-based panel datasets. We introduce a framework to decompose intergenerational poverty into family background effects, mediation effects, tax/transfer insurance effects, and a residual poverty penalty. Intergenerational poverty in the U.S. is four times stronger than in Denmark and Germany, and twice as strong as in Australia and the UK. Intergenerational poverty in Denmark is primarily channeled through family background effects, but persists in the UK and Germany through mediators such as adult education and employment. The U.S. disadvantage is not channeled through family background, mediators, neighborhood effects, or racial/ethnic discrimination. Instead, the U.S. has comparatively weak tax/transfer insurance effects and a more severe residual poverty penalty. Should the U.S. adopt the tax/transfer insurance effects of peer countries, its intergenerational poverty persistence could decline by more than one-third. The study offers a foundation for renewed research on the intergenerational persistence of poverty in high-income countries.

We examine the joint consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for fertility and birth outcomes by drawing on full population administrative data from Spain. We find a surprising improvement in birth outcomes in November and to a less extent in December 2020 (eight to nine months after the first wave of the pandemic) compared with monthly trends in the 10 previous years (2010–2019). The improvement in birth outcomes was shortly followed by a decline in fertility, which concentrated on first births, births to women without a tertiary degree, and births to young and old mothers, respectively. These findings are consistent with the idea that the pandemic selectively affected conception, which showed up first as an improvement in birth outcomes due to the missing conceptions of frail-children-to-be (preterm and low birth weight) and then as a lowered fertility rate due to the missing conception of at-term children.