1. Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa
- Author
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Thomassen, HA, Fuller, T, Asefi-Najafabady, S, Shiplacoff, JAG, Mulembakani, PM, Blumberg, S, Johnston, SC, Kisalu, NK, Kinkela, TL, Fair, JN, Wolfe, ND, Shongo, RL, LeBreton, M, Meyer, H, Wright, LL, Muyembe, JJ, Buermann, W, Okitolonda, E, Hensley, LE, Lloyd-Smith, JO, Smith, TB, Rimoin, AW, and Khudyakov, Yury E
- Subjects
Atmospheric Science ,Viral Diseases ,Spatial Epidemiology ,Epidemiology ,Population Modeling ,lcsh:Medicine ,Global Health ,Social and Behavioral Sciences ,Trees ,Nature and Society Interactions ,Disease Mapping ,Theoretical ,Global Change Ecology ,Models ,Emerging Viral Diseases ,Zoonoses ,ddc:550 ,Spatial and Landscape Ecology ,Monkeypox virus ,Macroecology ,lcsh:Science ,Climatology ,Ecology ,Geography ,Zoonotic Diseases ,Sciuridae ,Animal Models ,Terrestrial Environments ,Infectious Diseases ,Veterinary Diseases ,Host-Pathogen Interactions ,Democratic Republic of the Congo ,Medicine ,Infection ,Macaque ,Research Article ,General Science & Technology ,Climate Change ,Cercopithecus ,Human Geography ,Microbiology ,Infectious Disease Epidemiology ,Model Organisms ,Rare Diseases ,Virology ,Animals ,Humans ,Biology ,Ecosystem ,Disease Reservoirs ,Population Biology ,lcsh:R ,Computational Biology ,Monkeypox ,Models, Theoretical ,Climate Action ,Good Health and Well Being ,Earth Sciences ,Veterinary Science ,lcsh:Q ,Infectious Disease Modeling ,Viral Transmission and Infection ,Ecological Environments ,Climate Modeling ,Smallpox - Abstract
Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4(th) Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts.
- Published
- 2013
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