Search

We study the consequences of a working time reduction (WTR hereafter) in an exogenous growth model with unemployment (due to efficiency wage considerations) and a renewable natural resource. The resource is an essential input whose marginal productivity is bounded by physical laws. In the laissez-faire equilibrium, firms set headcount employment, working time and a wage level which affects workers’ effort. We show that if a WTR always decreases the total number of worked hours, its impact on the number of (un)employed crucially depends on the relative scarcity of the resource. If the ressource inflow is unlimited, the economy converges toward a balanced growth path and a WTR lowers the levels of output, employment and wages along this path, without affecting their growth rate. When the resource inflow is finite, the economy converges toward a stationary state. In this case, a WTR increases the stationary level of hourly wages and employment if the resource is scarce enough (which is for instance the case if the labour and capital saving technical progress is unbounded). Furthermore, the long-term elasticity of employment (resp., of the hourly wage) to the cut in hours is larger (resp., smaller) when the resource is scarcer. The transitory dynamics toward the stationary state is studied numerically. As far as the impact of a WTR on employment and wage are concerned, this analysis confirms the results put forward for the stationary state

With both trade and financial globalization on the rise, the main objective of this thesis is to assess whether financial interdependencies today are different from those in the past decades and whether such differences can be attributed to economic globalization. Especially, this study focuses on the impacts of medium-term cycles in center economies on short-term international financial flows to semi-periphery economies and the evolution of international monetary policy spillovers. This thesis is composed of three core chapters. The first proposes a portfolio optimization model to document the conditions and hypotheses under which financial flows to semi-periphery are procyclical or countercyclical to macroeconomic medium-term cycles in center economies. An empirical identification strategy is derived from the model. The findings indicate that financial flows to semi-periphery countries are countercyclical to these cycles for portfolio investments (in contrast to FDIs and portfolio investments to periphery countries). This suggests that portfolio investors shift part of their investments from center to semi-periphery economies during periods of lower returns in center economies, and vice versa. The second chapter complements the first. The study explains how macroeconomic medium-term cycles in center economies trigger countercyclical financial flows to semi-periphery countries that subsequently induce balance-of-payment crises in these economies. A review of crisis episodes in semi-periphery countries since the 1970s confirms the model. It highlights that the last three waves of crises that affected semi-periphery economies are each linked with the medium-term cycles in center economies and disruptive international financial flows. Lastly, this study examines the evolution of international monetary policy spillovers. The findings indicate that these spillovers are sizable and have increased considerably since the 1980s. By exploiting a method to disentangle the evo, (Faculté de sciences économiques, sociales et politiques) -- FUSL, 2023

In recent years, a controversy has developed as to whether, within a few decades, renewable energies could meet all the world energy needs, without jeopardising economic growth. From the many articles that have been published, no consensus can be found regarding the answer to this question. To shed a new light on this debate, a new methodology has been developed in this thesis to estimate global wind and solar potentials and the associated Energy Return On Investment (EROI), as these two resources are expected to be the main energy sources of the future energy system. Additionally, the obtained results have been coupled with a macroeconomic model to assess the feasibility and the economic impacts of the energy transition. The estimation of the potentials includes onshore and offshore wind, solar photovoltaic and concentrated solar power plants. Based on a spatial discretisation of the world, the model calculates, per site and for each of the technologies used on the site: the production potential, the direct and indirect energy inputs required per unit of energy produced and, by relating the two previous quantities, the site EROI. The model shows that, although having a twice higher global potential, solar technologies present lower EROIs than wind technologies. The global worldwide potentials obtained lie in the lower ranges of the estimations found in the literature, while for the European countries, the total potential is equivalent to the current final energy consumption of this region. This maximum potential can only be achieved if all of the theoretically available areas are covered with wind farms and solar fields, including areas with low energy profitability, especially for solar power plants. This theoretical potential then varies significantly depending on the minimum EROI threshold that is considered sustainable. It would imply that the actually achievable potential will partly depend on the maximum price, in terms of direct and indirect energy uses, at, (FSA - Sciences de l'ingénieur) -- UCL, 2021

Ce numéro spécial de Regards Economiques croise les regards d’ingénieurs et d’économistes pour étudier les possibles impacts de la transition énergétique sur la croissance économique. Un effet «localisation» induit par l’expansion des énergies solaire et éolienne et susceptible de réduire leur taux de retour énergétique (TRE) futur est mis en évidence. Les possibles conséquences macroéconomiques de cette baisse du TRE sont analysées, avec une attention particulière pour les mécanismes susceptibles de favoriser ou non une transition «en douceur», c’est-à-dire sans décroissance de l’économie.

We reassess Ricardo's conjecture of a secular increase in rent in an endogenous growth model with an essential renewable material resource and rising product quality. The model is consistent with the concept of strong sustainability and thus assumes that the resource productivity is bounded. Hence, only qualitative growth (i.e. a secular increase in the quality of final productions) may persist in the long run. We analyse how the scarcity of the resource affects the rent level and the distribution of national income (between resource, capital and labour) in the short and long runs. In the long run, resource scarcity induces a distributive conflict opposing labour to capital and resource, a lower resource stock implying generally a lower labour share and higher capital and rent shares. The transitory dynamics of the economy is analyzed numerically, starting from initial conditions characterized by a low capital stock and a large potential technical progress. Even if initially the rent (share) may evolve non-monotonically, simulations tend to confirm that Ricardo's conjecture emerges sooner or later during the transitory dynamics : except in the case of a very high dematerialization potential of final output, the rent share will rise as quantitative growth slows down.

In an input–output model of a two-sector economy (energy and manufacturing), we analyse the macroeconomic implications of the quality of secondary energy production. We mea- sure it by the net energy ratio (NER for short), i.e. the fraction of produced energy available for net final production. NER is shown to be related to the EROEI concept encountered in energy science and to affect (a) the energy intensiveness of final output, (b) the capital requirements of the two sectors of the economy and the aggregate capital–output ratio, and (c) the rate of capital accumulation and the growth rate of the economy at given saving rate. As a consequence, an energy transition characterized by a decreasing NER would exert a drag on economic growth.

We reassess Ricardo’s conjecture of a secular increase in rent in an endogenous growth model with an essential renewable material resouce and rising product quality. The model is consistent with the concept of strong sustainability and thus assumes that the resource productivity is bounded. Hence, only qualitative growth (i.e. a secular increase in the quality of final productions) may persist in the long run. We analyse how the scarcity of the resource affects the rent level and the distribution of national income (between resource, capital and labour) in the short and long runs. In the long run, resource scarcity induces a distributive conflict opposing labour to capital and resource, a lower resource stock implying generally a lower labour share and higher capital and rent shares. The transitory dynamics of the economy is analyzed numerically, starting from initial conditions characterized by a low capital stock and a large potential of technical progress. Even if initially the rent (share) may evolve non monotonically, simulations tend to confirm that Ricardo’s conjecture emerges sooner or later during the transitory dynamics : except in the case of a very high dematerialization potential of final output, the rent share will raise as quantitative growth slows down.

We introduce the concept of carbon footprint into an aggregate demand and supply model with imperfectly competitive price and wage formation. We analyse the properties of the short-term macroeconomic equilibrium in the presence of a climate policy, which may take the form either of a carbon tax or of quotas of pollution permits. We show that in the short run climate policy (or its strengthening) is simultaneously a negative aggregate supply shock and a positive aggregate demand shock. It is thus inflationary but it has an ambiguous impact on aggregate economic activity and employment: it will only stimulate output in an economy where nominal wages are rigid enough. In all cases, climate policy will depress real wages. We also analyse the interactions between climate policy and the usual macroeconomic policies of demand (fiscal and monetary stimuli) and supply (labour tax cut). The multiplier effects of these demand and supply policies depend on the instrument chosen for implementing the climate policy (carbon tax or pollution permits). We finally establish the conditions under which a reform combining a climate policy strengthening and a labour tax cut can reach the double objective of a lower carbon footprint and a lower unemployment rate, without reducing workers’ real wages. Such a policy reform has however an ambiguous impact on the government surplus (or deficit).

We analyse the transition of a decentralized economy whose energy supply switches progressively from non-renewable (NRE) to renewable energy (RE) sources. The two energies are perfect substitutes but RE production o↵ers a lower Energy Return On Energy Invested (EROEI). The transition is characterized by a decreasing trend of the aggregate EROEI and by major changes both in the allocation of output between consumption and investment and in the allocation of capital between energy and final good productions. As a result, the energy transition may (and will usually) be characterized by a non-monotonic evolution of aggregate income and private consumption: after a peak and before the NRE exhaustion, the economy experiences a contraction. We analyze what a↵ects 1) its magnitude and 2) the possibility of an ulterior recovery of income. Incidentally, a complementarity appears between a rapid development of RE production and the availability of NRE: the end of the NRE era puts a drag on the development of the RE production.

Dans un modèle de croissance endogène reposant sur le concept de soutenabilité forte et intégrant une ressource de matière (naturellement recyclable) dont la productivité marginale est bornée, cet article reconsidère la "conjecture de Ricardo", à savoir l'éventualité d'une hausse tendancielle de la part de la rente dans la valeur ajoutée au cours du temps. Dans l'économie du modèle, une croissance quantitative (en termes du nombre de biens) ne peut être que transitoire et seule une croissance qualitative (en termes de qualité des biens) peut subsister à long terme. Nous étudions l'impact de la rareté de la ressource sur les caractéristiques du sentier de croissance stationnaire, sur le niveau de la rente et le partage de la valeur ajoutée le long de celui-ci. La part stationnaire de la rente dans la valeur ajoutée est une fonction décroissante de l'abondance de la ressource et du potentiel de dématérialisation des productions. De plus, la rareté de la ressource oppose généralement le facteur travail aux deux autres (ressource et capital), une ressource moins abondante (en termes relatifs) impliquant une part plus faibledu travail dans la valeur ajoutée et une part plus élevée de chacun des deux autres facteurs. Nous analysons ensuite numériquement la dynamique transitoire de l'économie, partant d'un état initial caractérisé par un faible stock de capital, un potentiel de progrès technique important. Même si la part de la rente dans la valeur ajoutée peut initialement évoluer de façon non monotone, les simulations tendent à montrer que la "conjecture de Ricardo" se confirme tôt ou tard le long de la dynamique transitoire: le ralentissement de la croissance quantitative s'accompagne d'une hausse de la part de la rente dans la valeur ajoutée jusqu'à sa valeur stationnaire. La tendance historique d'une baisse de la part de la rente pourrait donc s'inverser dans le futur, dès lors que les processus de découvertes de nouvelles réserves et de dématérialisation de la produc

Nous introduisons le concept d'empreinte carbone dans un modèle offre globale et demande globale avec formation imparfaitement concurrentielle des prix et salaires et en examinons les propriétés de l'équilibre en présence d'une politique climatique. Nous étudions deux instruments possibles de cette politique, une taxe carbone ou un quota de permis de pollution. Nous montrons qu'à court terme la politique climatique (ou son durcissement) constitue à la fois un choc d'offre globale négatif et un choc de demande globale positif. Elle provoque donc des effets inflationnistes mais a un impact ambigu sur l'activité économique, l'emploi et le chômage. Ce n'est que dans une économie avec des rigidités nominales de salaire suffisantes que la politique climatique stimulera -sous certaines conditions- l'activité à court terme. Dans tous les cas de figure, elle pèsera négativement sur les salaires réels. Nous étudions encore les interactions entre la politique climatique et les politiques macroéconomiques traditionnelles de demande (stimulus budgétaire ou monétaire) et d'offre (baisse des cotisations sociales). Les effets multiplicateurs de ces politiques sont influencés par l'existence d'une politique climatique et diffèrent selon l'instrument choisi (taxe ou permis). Nous montrons les conditions sous lesquelles une réforme combinant durcissement de la politique climatique et baisse des cotisations sociales sur le travail peut engendrer un double dividende (réduction de l'empreinte carbone, baisse du chômage), sans pénaliser les salaires réels des travailleurs. Une telle politique a toutefois des effets incertains sur le solde des finances publiques.

Nous examinons les réponses qu’apporte la théorie macroéconomique à la question des limites environnementales à la croissance. Nous étudions tout d’abord la question de la finitude des ressources naturelles utilisées dans les processus productifs et leur impact sur la croissance puis, plus marginalement, celle des dégradations environnementales. Sur ces thèmes, nous présentons les développements de la théorie néoclassique de la croissance et la manière dont ils sont remis en cause ou infléchis lorsqu’on en prend en compte les (ou certains des) arguments des économistes écologiques.

We reassess the issue of limits to growth in an endogenous growth model of a decentralized economy where final productions require a recyclable essential material input. The model follows a material balance approach and relies on technological assumptions consistent with the material balance principle and on explicit distinction between the material content and the quality of produced goods. Growth follows from research activities that allow firms to improve the quality of their output and to reduce the material resource intensiveness of their production process. Even though recycling is assumed perfect, we show that 1) the material balance constraint affect the whole transitory dynamics of the growth process; 2) quantitative growth (i.e. positive growth of material output) can only be a transitory phenomenon, long term economic growth taking exclusively the form of perpetual improvements in the quality of final goods. A long term growth path is characterized by constant values of material variables (or in a less favorable scenario, by a constant negative growth rate of those variables). We establish the existence conditions of a growth path based on quality improvements and constant material variables. It may fail to exist in a decentralized framework even though it is quite feasible from a purely physical point of view.

We propose an endogenous growth model of a decentralized economy subject to environmental constraints. In a basic version, we consider an economy where final production requires some material input and where research activities allow simultaneously productive firms to reduce the dependency of their production process on this input and to improve the quality of their output. We adopt a material balance approach and, in spite of the optimistic assumption that the material input is perfectly recyclable (and thus never exhausted), we show that material output growth is always a transitory phenomenon. When it exists, a balanced growth path is necessarily characterized by constant values of the material variables, long term economic growth taking exclusively the form of perpetual improvements in the quality of consumption goods. The material resource constraint is not solely a long term issue since it is also shown to affect the whole transitory dynamics of the (material) growth process. Renewable energy is introduced in an extension of our basic model. This extension does not affect qualitatively the features of a feasible balanced growth path but make its conditions of existence more restrictive.

We propose a stylized intertemporal macroeconomic model wherein the combination of decentralized trading and microeconomic uncertainty (taking the form of privately observed and uninsured idiosyncratic shocks) creates an information problem between agents and generates indeterminacy of the macroeconomic equilibrium. For a given value of the economic fundamentals, the economy admits a continuum of equilibria that can be indexed by the sales expectations of firms at the time of investment. The Walrasian equilibrium is one of these possible equilibria but it is reached only if firms are optimistic enough. With a weaker degree of optimism, equilibrium output, employment and real wages will be lower than in the Walrasian equilibrium. Moreover, the range of possible equilibria will depend positively on the wage elasticity of the labour supply and on the magnitude of the information problem between buyers and sellers (in our case, the variance of the idiosyncratic shocks). Stochastic simulations performed on a calibrated version of the model show that pure demand expectation shocks may generate business cycle statistics that are not inconsistent with the observed ones. © 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dans un cadre à la Hecscher-Ohlin, cet article étudie comment un commerce international croissant, défavorable au travail peu qualifié, affecte une économie industrialisée caractérisée par une rigidité à la baisse de certains salaires réels entraînant du chômage chez les travailleurs concernés. Nous examinons si une telle économie est plus vulnérable à cette forme de commerce international qu'une économie sans rigidité, en particulier en ce qui concerne l'évolution du revenu national et celle du revenu réel et de l'emploi des travailleurs a priori protégés par ces rigidités. Nous étudions en outre l’incidence de la mobilité internationale des capitaux sur l’évolution de ces variables.

In a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium framework, we introduce the concept of capacity utilization (as opposed to capital utilization). We consider an economy where monopolistic firms use a putty-clay technology and decide on their productive capacity and technology under uncertainty. An idiosyncratic uncertainty about the exact position of the demand curve faced by each firm explains why some productive capacities remain idle and why individual capacity utilization rates differ across firms. A variable capacity utilization allows for a good description of some of the main stylized facts of the business cycle, propagates and magnifies aggregate technological shocks and generates endogenous persistence (i.e., the output growth rate displays positive serial correlation).

We analyse the interactions between investment and local wage bargaining in a putty-clay model where the investment decision commits the firm to a particular capital intensity. This technological pre-commitment is used strategically in order to manipulate the bargaining outcome. We show that this strategic behaviour induces a non-monotonic relationship between the capital-and-labour demands of the firm and most of her environmental parameters (a.o. the bargaining power of the union, her minimum wage requirement, the capital cost,...). The results we obtain in our putty-clay framework thus contradicts several conclusions of the standard literature on wage bargaining and investment.

Through a simple example, we show that the successiveı sophistications introduced in the early RBC models in order to improve their internal propagation mechanisms have actually increased their non-linearities, even locally. Accordingly, linearization-based resolution methods become nuch more disputable than they were for early RBC models. Simple comparative studies of impulse-response functions are used to illustrate this point. We conclude by pointing at some alternative resolution techniques that allow the model builder to take non-linearities into account and/or to handle with the presence of large state spaces.

dissertn: Diss. Doct.