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The impacts of future methane (CH4) and other precursor emission changes are investigated for surface ozone (O3) in the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region excluding North America and Israel (the EMEP region, for European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) for the year 2050. The analysis includes a current legislation (CLE) and maximum feasible technical reduction (MFR) scenario, as well as a scenario that combines MFRs with an additional dietary shift that also meets the Paris Agreement objectives with respect to greenhouse gas emissions (LOW). For each scenario, background CH4 concentrations are calculated using a probabilistic Earth system model emulator and combined with other precursor emissions in a three-dimensional Eulerian chemistry-transport model. While focus is placed on peak season maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) O3 concentrations, a range of other indicators for health and vegetation impacts are also discussed. Our analysis shows that roughly one-third of the total peak season MDA8 reduction achieved between the 2050 CLE and MFR scenarios is attributable to CH4 reductions, resulting predominantly from CH4 emission reductions outside of the EMEP region. The impact of other precursor emission reductions is split nearly evenly between the reductions inside and outside of the EMEP region. However, the relative importance of CH4 and other precursor emission reductions is shown to depend on the choice of O3 indicator, though indicators sensitive to peak O3 show generally consistent results. The analysis also highlights the synergistic impacts of CH4 mitigation as reducing solely CH4 achieves, beyond air quality improvement, nearly two-thirds of the total global warming reduction calculated for the LOW scenario compared to the CLE case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impacts of future methane (CH4) and other precursor emission changes are investigated for surface ozone (O3) in the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) region excluding North America and Israel (the "EMEP region", for European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) for the year 2050. The analysis includes a Current Legislation (CLE) 5 and Maximum Feasible Technical (MFR) reduction scenario, and a scenario that combines MFR reductions with an additional dietary shift that also meets the Paris Agreement objectives with respect to greenhouse gas emissions (LOW). For each scenario, background CH4 concentrations are calculated using a probabilistic Earth System model emulator, and combined with other precursor emissions in a three-dimensional Eulerian chemistry-transport model. While focus is placed on peak season maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O3 concentrations, a range of other indicators for health and vegetation impacts are also discussed. Our analysis show that roughly one-thirds of the total peak season MDA8 reduction achieved between the 2050 CLE and MFR scenarios is attributable to CH4 reductions, resulting predominantly from CH4 emission reductions outside of the EMEP region. The impact of other precursor emission reductions is split nearly evenly between the reductions inside and outside of the EMEP region. However, the relative importance of CH4 and other precursor emission reductions is shown to depend on the choice of O3 indicator, though indicators sensitive to peak O3 show generally consistent results. The analysis also highlights the synergistic impacts of CH4 mitigation as reducing solely CH4 achieves, beyond air quality improvement, nearly two-thirds of the total global warming reduction calculated for the LOWscenario compared to the CLE case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eurodelta-Trends multi-model experiment, aimed to assess the efficiency of emission mitigation measures in improving air quality in Europe during 1990-2010, was designed to answer a series of questions regarding European pollution trends. i.e. were there significant trends detected by observations? do the models manage to reproduce observed trends? how close is the agreement between the models and how large are the deviations from observations? In this paper, we address these issues with respect to PM pollution. An in-depth trend analysis has been performed forPM2.5 and PM2.5 for the period of 2000-2010, based on results from six chemical transport models and observational data from the EMEP (Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe) monitoring network. Given harmonization of set up and main input data, the differences in model results should mainly result from differences in the process formulations within the models themselves, and the spread in the models simulated trends could be regarded as an indicator for modelling uncertainty. The model ensemble simulations indicate overall decreasing trends in PM10 and PM2.5, with reduction by between 2 and 6 µg m-3 m-3 (or between 10 and 30%) from 2000 to 2010. Compared to PM2.5, relative PM10 trends are weaker due to large inter-annual variability of natural coarse PM within the former. The changes in the concentrations of PM individual components are in general consistent with emission reductions. There is a reasonable agreement in PM trends estimated by the individual models, with the inter-model variability below 30-40% over most of Europe, increasing to 50-60% in northern and eastern parts of EDT domain. Averaged over measurement sites (26 for PM10 and 13 for PM2.5), the mean ensemble simulated trends are -0.24 and -0.22 µg m-3 year-1 for PM10 and PM2.5, which are somewhat weaker than the observed trends of -0.35 and -0.40 µg m-3 year-1, respectively, partly due to models underestimation of PM concentrations. The correspondence is better in relative PM10 and PM2.5 trends, which are -1.7 and -2.0 % year-1 from the model ensemble and -2.1 and -2.9 %year--1 from the observations, respectively. The observations identify significant trends for PM10 at 56 % of the sites and for PM2.5 at 36% of the sites, which is somewhat less that the fractions of significant modelled trends. Further, we find somewhat smaller spatial variability of modelled PM trends with respect to the observed ones across Europe and also within individual countries. The strongest decreasing PM trends and the largest number of sites with significant trends is found for the summer season, according to both the model ensemble and observations. The winter PM trends are very weak and mostly insignificant. One important reason for that is the very modest reductions and even increases in the emissions of primary PM from residential heating in winter. It should be kept in mind that all findings regarding modeled versus observed PM trends are limited the regions where the sites are located. The analysis reveals a considerable variability of the role of the individual aerosols in PM10 trends across European countries. The multi-model simulations, supported by available observations, point to decreases in SO-2 4 concentrations playing an overall dominant role. Also, we see relatively large contributions of the trends of NH+4 and NO-3 to PM10 decreasing trends in Germany, Denmark, Poland and the Po Valley, while the reductions of primary PM emissions appears to be a dominant factor in bringing down PM10 in France, Norway, Portugal, Greece and parts of the UK and Russia. Further discussions are given with respect to emission uncertainties and the effect of inter-annual meteorological variability on the trend analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]