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Increasing habitat fragmentation and disturbance threaten long distance movements of ungulates. While the effects of impermeable barriers on ungulate migrations have been well researched, quantitative evidence for gradual and long-term changes of mobility in response to anthropogenic disturbance remains relatively rare.We investigated changes in movement behavior of Mongolian gazelle Procapra gutturosa, a nomadic ungulate species native to the Mongolian steppe. Using GPS tracking data collected from 62 gazelle individuals between 2007 and 2021, we quantified 16-day displacement distances for each individual as a metric for long-distance movements. We used generalized linear mixed models, generalized additive models and additive quantile mixed models to assess how anthropogenic and environmental factors affected gazelle movement behavior.Long distance 16-day movements decreased significantly by up to 36 %, from 142 km in 2007 to 92 km in 2021. Changes in gazelle mobility were affected by the increasing number of vehicles in Mongolia, but could not be explained by concurrent changes in other environmental factors like temperature, precipitation or vegetation greenness that often drive ungulate migration behavior. Moreover, we found that gazelle movement decreased close to roads, and that gazelles stayed further away from roads during the snow-free season, when vehicular traffic likely is most intense.Conserving landscape permeability is essential for maintaining populations of highly mobile species. Our study provides evidence for a gradual decline in gazelle mobility over fifteen years as a response to increasing anthropogenic impact. To date, the transportation infrastructure permeating the Eastern Steppe does not pose physical barriers, yet our findings suggest that increasing traffic volume may create semipermeable barriers to gazelle movement. As human activity is increasing throughout the Eastern Steppe, interactions between ungulates and vehicle traffic need to

Direct encounters, in which two or more individuals are physically close to one another, are a topic of increasing interest as more and better movement data become available. Recent progress, including the development of statistical tools for estimating robust measures of changes in animals’ space use over time, facilitates opportunities to link direct encounters between individuals with the long-term consequences of those encounters. Working with movement data for coyotes (Canis latrans) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis), we investigate whether close intraspecific encounters were associated with spatial shifts in the animals’ range distributions, as might be expected if one or both of the individuals involved in an encounter were seeking to reduce or avoid conflict over space. We analyze the movement data of a pair of coyotes in detail, identifying how a shift in home range location resulting from altered movement behavior was apparently a consequence of a close intraspecific encounter. With grizzly bear movement data, we approach the problem from the perspective of a set of encounter pairs within a population. We find support for the hypotheses that 1) close intraspecific encounters between bears are, on average, associated with subsequent shifts in range distributions and 2) encounters defined at finer spatial scales are followed by greater changes in space use. Our results suggest that animals can undertake long-term, large-scale spatial shifts in response to close intraspecific encounters that have the potential for conflict. These results lend support for existing theory on the evolution of territories and space use (e.g., Maynard-Smith’s bourgeois strategy regarding low-conflict coexistence). Overall, we find that analyses of movement data in a pairwise context can 1) identify distances at which individuals’ proximity to one another may alter behavior and 2) facilitate testing of population-level hypotheses concerning the potential for direct encoun

Increasing habitat fragmentation and disturbance threaten long distance movements of ungulates. While the effects of impermeable barriers on ungulate migrations have been well researched, quantitative evidence for gradual and long-term changes of mobility in response to anthropogenic disturbance remains relatively rare.We investigated changes in movement behavior of Mongolian gazelle Procapra gutturosa, a nomadic ungulate species native to the Mongolian steppe. Using GPS tracking data collected from 62 gazelle individuals between 2007 and 2021, we quantified 16-day displacement distances for each individual as a metric for long-distance movements. We used generalized linear mixed models, generalized additive models and additive quantile mixed models to assess how anthropogenic and environmental factors affected gazelle movement behavior.Long distance 16-day movements decreased significantly by up to 36 %, from 142 km in 2007 to 92 km in 2021. Changes in gazelle mobility were affected by the increasing number of vehicles in Mongolia, but could not be explained by concurrent changes in other environmental factors like temperature, precipitation or vegetation greenness that often drive ungulate migration behavior. Moreover, we found that gazelle movement decreased close to roads, and that gazelles stayed further away from roads during the snow-free season, when vehicular traffic likely is most intense.Conserving landscape permeability is essential for maintaining populations of highly mobile species. Our study provides evidence for a gradual decline in gazelle mobility over fifteen years as a response to increasing anthropogenic impact. To date, the transportation infrastructure permeating the Eastern Steppe does not pose physical barriers, yet our findings suggest that increasing traffic volume may create semipermeable barriers to gazelle movement. As human activity is increasing throughout the Eastern Steppe, interactions between ungulates and vehicle traffic need to

The severe shortfall in testing supplies during the initial COVID-19 outbreak and ensuing struggle to manage the pandemic have affirmed the critical importance of optimal supply-constrained resource allocation strategies for controlling novel disease epidemics. To address the challenge of constrained resource optimization for managing diseases with complications like pre- and asymptomatic transmission, we develop an integro partial differential equation compartmental disease model which incorporates realistic latent, incubation, and infectious period distributions along with limited testing supplies for identifying and quarantining infected individuals. Our model overcomes the limitations of typical ordinary differential equation compartmental models by decoupling symptom status from model compartments to allow a more realistic representation of symptom onset and presymptomatic transmission. To analyze the influence of these realistic features on disease controllability, we find optimal strategies for reducing total infection sizes that allocate limited testing resources between ‘clinical’ testing, which targets symptomatic individuals, and ‘non-clinical’ testing, which targets non-symptomatic individuals. We apply our model not only to the original, delta, and omicron COVID-19 variants, but also to generically parameterized disease systems with varying mismatches between latent and incubation period distributions, which permit varying degrees of presymptomatic transmission or symptom onset before infectiousness. We find that factors that decrease controllability generally call for reduced levels of non-clinical testing in optimal strategies, while the relationship between incubation-latent mismatch, controllability, and optimal strategies is complicated. In particular, though greater degrees of presymptomatic transmission reduce disease controllability, they may increase or decrease the role of non-clinical testing in optimal strategies depending on other disease f

Projects focused on movement behaviour and home range are commonplace, but beyond a focus on choosing appropriate research questions, there are no clear guidelines for such studies. Without these guidelines, designing an animal tracking study to produce reliable estimates of space-use and movement properties (necessary to answer basic movement ecology questions), is often done in an ad hoc manner.We developed ‘movedesign’, a user-friendly Shiny application, which can be utilized to investigate the precision of three estimates regularly reported in movement and spatial ecology studies: home range area, speed and distance travelled. Conceptually similar to statistical power analysis, this application enables users to assess the degree of estimate precision that may be achieved with a given sampling design; that is, the choices regarding data resolution (sampling interval) and battery life (sampling duration).Leveraging the ‘ctmm’ R package, we utilize two methods proven to handle many common biases in animal movement datasets: autocorrelated kernel density estimators (AKDEs) and continuous-time speed and distance (CTSD) estimators. Longer sampling durations are required to reliably estimate home range areas via the detection of a sufficient number of home range crossings. In contrast, speed and distance estimation requires a sampling interval short enough to ensure that a statistically significant signature of the animal's velocity remains in the data.This application addresses key challenges faced by researchers when designing tracking studies, including the trade-off between long battery life and high resolution of GPS locations collected by the devices, which may result in a compromise between reliably estimating home range or speed and distance. ‘movedesign’ has broad applications for researchers and decision-makers, supporting them to focus efforts and resources in achieving the optimal sampling design strategy for their research questions, prioritizing the corre

1. Home-range estimates are a common product of animal tracking data, as each range informs on the area needed by a given individual. Population-level inference on home-range areas—where multiple individual home-ranges are considered to be sampled from a population—is also important to evaluate changes over time, space, or covariates, such as habitat quality or fragmentation, and for comparative analyses of species averages. Population-level home-range parameters have traditionally been estimated by first assuming that the input tracking data were sampled independently when calculating home ranges via conventional kernel density estimation (KDE) or minimal convex polygon (MCP) methods, and then assuming that those individual home ranges were measured exactly when calculating the population-level estimates. This conventional approach does not account for the temporal autocorrelation that is inherent in modern tracking data, nor for the uncertainties of each individual home-range estimate, which are often large and heterogeneous. 2. Here, we introduce a statistically and computationally efficient framework for the population-level analysis of home-range areas, based on autocorrelated kernel density estimation (AKDE), that can account for variable temporal autocorrelation and estimation uncertainty. 3. We apply our method to empirical examples on lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris), kinkajou (Potos flavus), white-nosed coati (Nasua narica), white-faced capuchin monkey (Cebus capucinus), and spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi), and quantify differences between species, environments, and sexes. 4. Our approach allows researchers to more accurately compare different populations with different movement behaviors or sampling schedules, while retaining statistical precision and power when individual home-range uncertainties vary. Finally, we emphasize the estimation of effect sizes when comparing populations, rather than mere significance tests.

Ecologists have long been interested in linking individual behavior with higher‐level processes. For motile species, this ‘upscaling’ is governed by how well any given movement strategy maximizes encounters with positive factors, and minimizes encounters with negative factors. Despite the importance of encounter events for a broad range of ecological processes, encounter theory has not kept pace with developments in animal tracking or movement modeling. Furthermore, existing work has focused primarily on the relationship between animal movement and encounter rates while the relationship between individual movement and the spatial locations of encounter events in the environment has remained conspicuously understudied. Here, we bridge this gap by introducing a method for describing the long‐term encounter location probabilities for movement within home ranges, termed the conditional distribution of encounters (CDE). We then derive this distribution, as well as confidence intervals, implement its statistical estimator into open source software, and demonstrate the broad ecological relevance of this distribution.We first use simulated data to show how our estimator provides asymptotically consistent estimates. We then demonstrate the general utility of this method for three simulation‐based scenarios that occur routinely in biological systems: i) a population of individuals with home ranges that overlap with neighbors; ii) a pair of individuals with a hard territorial border between their home ranges; and iii) a predator with a large home range that encompassed the home ranges of multiple prey individuals. Using GPS data from white‐faced capuchins (Cebus capucinus) tracked on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and sleepy lizards (Tiliqua rugosa) tracked in Bundey, South Australia, we then show how the CDE can be used to estimate the locations of territorial borders, identify key resources, quantify the potential for competitive or predatory interactions, and/or identify an

Modern tracking devices allow for the collection of high-volume animal tracking data at improved sampling rates over VHF radiotelemetry. Home range estimation is a key output from these tracking datasets, but the inherent properties of animal movement can lead traditional statistical methods to under- or overestimate home range areas. The Autocorrelated Kernel Density Estimation (AKDE) family of estimators were designed to be statistically efficient while explicitly dealing with the complexities of modern movement data: autocorrelation, small sample sizes, and missing or irregularly sampled data. Although each of these estimators has been described in separate technical papers, here we review how these estimators work and provide a user-friendly guide on how they may be combined to reduce multiple biases simultaneously. We describe the magnitude of the improvements offered by these estimators and their impact on home range area estimates, using both empirical case studies and simulations, contrasting their computational costs. Finally, we provide guidelines for researchers to choose among alternative estimators and an R script to facilitate the application and interpretation of AKDE home range estimates.

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Plant traits—the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants—determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait‐based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits—almost complete coverage for ‘plant growth form’. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait–environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives.

Contains fulltext : 226766.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)

Encounter rates link movement strategies to intra- and inter-specific interactions, and therefore translate individual movement behavior into higher-level ecological processes. Indeed, a large body of interacting population theory rests on the law of mass action, which can be derived from assumptions of Brownian motion in an enclosed container with exclusively local perception. These assumptions imply completely uniform space use, individual home ranges equivalent to the population range, and encounter dependent on movement paths actually crossing. Mounting empirical evidence, however, suggests that animals use space non-uniformly, occupy home ranges substantially smaller than the population range, and are often capable of nonlocal perception. Here, we explore how these empirically supported behaviors change pairwise encounter rates. Specifically, we derive novel analytical expressions for encounter rates under Ornstein-Uhlenbeck motion, which features non-uniform space use and allows individual home ranges to differ from the population range. We compare OU-based encounter predictions to those of Reflected Brownian Motion, from which the law of mass action can be derived. For both models, we further explore how the interplay between the scale of perception and home range size affects encounter rates. We find that neglecting realistic movement and perceptual behaviors can lead to systematic, non-negligible biases in encounter-rate predictions.

Long-term trends in photosynthetic capacity measured with the satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are usually associated with climate change. Human impacts on the global land surface are typically not accounted for. Here, we provide the first global analysis quantifying the effect of the earth’s human footprint on NDVI trends. Globally, more than 20% of the variability in NDVI trends was explained by anthropogenic factors such as land use, nitrogen fertilization, and irrigation. Intensely used land classes, such as villages, showed the greatest rates of increase in NDVI, more than twice than those of forests. These findings reveal that factors beyond climate influence global long-term trends in NDVI and suggest that global climate change models and analyses of primary productivity should incorporate land use effects

Understanding complex movement behaviors via mechanistic models is one key challenge in movement ecology. We built a theoretical simulation model using evolutionarily trained artificial neural networks (ANNs) wherein individuals evolve movement behaviors in response to resource landscapes on which they search and navigate. We distinguished among non-oriented movements in response to proximate stimuli, oriented movements utilizing perceptual cues from distant targets, and memory mechanisms that assume prior knowledge of a target's location and then tested the relevance of these three movement behaviors in relation to size of resource patches, predictability of resource landscapes, and the occurrence of movement barriers. Individuals were more efficient in locating resources under larger patch sizes and predictable landscapes when memory was advantageous. However, memory was also frequently used in unpredictable landscapes with intermediate patch sizes to systematically search the entire spatial domain, and because of this, we suggest that memory may be important in explaining super-diffusion observed in many empirical studies. The sudden imposition of movement barriers had the greatest effect under predictable landscapes and temporarily eliminated the benefits of memory. Overall, we demonstrate how movement behaviors that are linked to certain cognitive abilities can be represented by state variables in ANNs and how, by altering these state variables, the relevance of different behaviors under different spatiotemporal resource dynamics can be tested. If adapted to fit empirical movement paths, methods described here could help reveal behavioral mechanisms of real animals and predict effects of anthropogenic landscape changes on animal movement.

Aim To demonstrate how the interrelations of individual movements form large-scale population-level movement patterns and how these patterns are associated with the underlying landscape dynamics by comparing ungulate movements across species.Locations Arctic tundra in Alaska and Canada, temperate forests in Massachusetts, Patagonian Steppes in Argentina, Eastern Steppes in Mongolia.Methods We used relocation data from four ungulate species (barren-ground caribou, Mongolian gazelle, guanaco and moose) to examine individual movements and the interrelation of movements among individuals. We applied and developed a suite of spatial metrics that measure variation in movement among individuals as population dispersion, movement coordination and realized mobility. Taken together, these metrics allowed us to quantify and distinguish among different large-scale population-level movement patterns such as migration, range residency and nomadism. We then related the population-level movement patterns to the underlying landscape vegetation dynamics via long-term remote sensing measurements of the temporal variability, spatial variability and unpredictability of vegetation productivity.Results Moose, which remained in sedentary home ranges, and guanacos, which were partially migratory, exhibited relatively short annual movements associated with landscapes having very little broad-scale variability in vegetation. Caribou and gazelle performed extreme long-distance movements that were associated with broad-scale variability in vegetation productivity during the peak of the growing season. Caribou exhibited regular seasonal migration in which individuals were clustered for most of the year and exhibited coordinated movements. In contrast, gazelle were nomadic, as individuals were independently distributed and moved in an uncoordinated manner that relates to the comparatively unpredictable (yet broad-scale) vegetation dynamics of their landscape.Main conclusions We show how broad-sca

Mate finding, which is essential to both population growth and gene exchange, involves both spatial and temporal components. From a population dynamics perspective, spatial mate-finding problems are well studied, and decreased mate-finding efficiency at low population densities is a well-recognized mechanism for the Allee effect. Temporal aspects of mate finding have been rarely considered, but reproductive asynchrony may engender an Allee effect in which some females go mateless by virtue of temporal isolation. Here we develop and explore a model that unifies previously disparate theoretical considerations of spatial and temporal aspects of mate finding. Specifically, we develop a two-sex reaction-diffusion system to examine the interplay between reproductive asynchrony and the dispersal of individuals out of a patch. We also consider additional behavioral complications, including several alternative functional forms for mating efficiency and advective movements in which males actively seek out females. By calculating the fraction of females expected to go mateless as a joint function of reproductive asynchrony and patch size, we find that the population-level reproductive rates necessary to offset female matelessness may be quite high. These results suggest that Allee effects engendered by reproductive asynchrony will be greatly exacerbated in spatially isolated populations.

1. Reproductive asynchrony, where individuals in a population are short-lived relative to the population-level reproductive period, has been identified recently as a theoretical mechanism of the Allee effect that could operate in diverse plant and insect species. The degree to which this effect impinges on the growth potential of natural populations is not yet well understood.2. Building on previous models of reproductive timing, we develop a general framework that allows a detailed, quantitative examination of the reproductive potential lost to asynchrony in small natural populations.3. Our framework includes a range of biologically plausible submodels that allow details of mating biology of different species to be incorporated into the basic reproductive timing model.4. We tailor the parameter estimation methods of the full model (basic model plus mating biology submodels) to take full advantage of data from detailed field studies of two species of Parnassius butterflies whose mating status may be assessed easily in the field.5. We demonstrate that for both species, a substantial portion of the female population (6·5-18·6%) is expected to die unmated. These analyses provide the first direct, quantitative evidence of female reproductive failure due to asynchrony in small natural populations, and suggest that reproductive asynchrony exerts a strong and largely unappreciated influence on the population dynamics of these butterflies and other species with similarly asynchronous reproductive phenology.

Identifying linkages between life‐history traits and small population processes is essential to effective multispecies conservation. Reproductive asynchrony, which occurs when individuals are reproductively active for only a portion of the population‐level breeding period, may provide one such link. Traditionally, reproductive asynchrony has been considered from evolutionary perspectives as an advantageous bet‐hedging strategy in temporally unpredictable environments. Here, we explore the dynamic consequences of reproductive asynchrony as a density‐dependent life‐history trait. To examine how asynchrony affects population growth rate and extinction risk, we used a general model of reproductive timing to quantify the temporal overlap of opposite‐sex individuals and to simulate population dynamics over a range of initial densities and empirical estimates of reproductive asynchrony. We also considered how protandry, a sexually selected life‐history strategy that often accompanies asynchrony, modulates the population‐level effects of reproductive asynchrony. We found that asynchrony decreases the number of males a female overlaps with, decreases the average probability of mating per male/female pair that does overlap, and leaves some females completely isolated in time. This loss of reproductive potential, which is exacerbated by protandry, reduces population growth rate at low density and can lead to extinction via an Allee effect. Thus reproductive asynchrony and protandry, both of which can be evolutionarily advantageous at higher population densities, may prove detrimental when population density declines.