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Ocean acidification, chemical changes to the carbonate system of seawater, is emerging as a key environmental challenge accompanying global warming and other human-induced perturbations. Considerable research seeks to define the scope and character of potential outcomes from this phenomenon, but a crucial impediment persists. Ecological theory, despite its power and utility, has been only peripherally applied to the problem. Here we sketch in broad strokes several areas where fundamental principles of ecology have the capacity to generate insight into ocean acidification's consequences. We focus on conceptual models that, when considered in the context of acidification, yield explicit predictions regarding a spectrum of population- and community-level effects, from narrowing of species ranges and shifts in patterns of demographic connectivity, to modified consumer-resource relationships, to ascendance of weedy taxa and loss of species diversity. Although our coverage represents only a small fraction of the breadth of possible insights achievable from the application of theory, our hope is that this initial foray will spur expanded efforts to blend experiments with theoretical approaches. The result promises to be a deeper and more nuanced understanding of ocean acidification'and the ecological changes it portends.

Predictions concerning the consequences of the oceanic uptake of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) have been primarily occupied with the effects of ocean acidification on calcifying organisms, particularly those critical to the formation of habitats (e.g. coral reefs) or their maintenance (e.g. grazing echinoderms). This focus overlooks direct and indirect effects of CO2 on non-calcareous taxa that play critical roles in ecosystem shifts (e.g. competitors). We present the model that future atmospheric [CO2] may act as a resource for mat-forming algae, a diverse and widespread group known to reduce the resilience of kelp forests and coral reefs. We test this hypothesis by combining laboratory and field CO2 experiments and data from 'natural' volcanic CO2 vents. We show that mats have enhanced productivity in experiments and more expansive covers in situ under projected near-future CO2 conditions both in temperate and tropical conditions. The benefits of CO2 are likely to vary among species of producers, potentially leading to shifts in species dominance in a high CO2 world. We explore how ocean acidification combines with other environmental changes across a number of scales, and raise awareness of CO2 as a resource whose change in availability could have wide-ranging community consequences beyond its direct effects.

Classification and regression trees are ideally suited for the analysis of complex ecological data. For such data, we require flexible and robust analytical methods, which can deal with nonlinear relationships, high-order interactions, and missing values. Despite such difficulties, the methods should be simple to understand and give easily interpretable results. Trees explain variation of a single response variable by repeatedly splitting the data into more homogeneous groups, using combinations of explanatory variables that may be categorical and/or numeric. Each group is characterized by a typical value of the response variable, the number of observations in the group, and the values of the explanatory variables that define it. The tree is represented graphically, and this aids exploration and understanding. Trees can be used for interactive exploration and for description and prediction of patterns and processes. Advantages of trees include: (1) the flexibility to handle a broad range of response types, including numeric, categorical, ratings, and survival data; (2) invariance to monotonic transformations of the explanatory variables; (3) ease and robustness of construction; (4) ease of interpretation; and (5) the ability to handle missing values in both response and explanatory variables. Thus, trees complement or represent an alternative to many traditional statistical techniques, including multiple regression, analysis of variance, logistic regression, log-linear models, linear discriminant analysis, and survival models. We use classification and regression trees to analyze survey data from the Australian central Great Barrier Reef, comprising abundances of soft coral taxa (Cnidaria: Octocorallia) and physical and spatial environmental information. Regression tree analyses showed that dense aggregations, typically formed by three taxa, were restricted to distinct habitat types, each of which was defined by combinations of 3-4 environmental variables. The habitat definitions were consistent with known experimental findings on the nutrition of these taxa. When used separately, physical and spatial variables were similarly strong predictors of abundances and lost little in comparison with their joint use. The spatial variables are thus effective surrogates for the physical variables in this extensive reef complex, where information on the physical environment is often not available. Finally, we compare the use of regression trees and linear models for the analysis of these data and show how linear models fail to find patterns uncovered by the trees. Keywords: analysis of variance; CART; classification tree; coral reef; Great Barrier Reef; habitat characteristic; Octocorallia; regression tree; soft coral; surrogate.

Reef-building corals are subject to multi-day periods of reduced light and progressive ocean acidification. We experimentally assessed how adult and early post-settlement Acropora tenuis and A. hyacinthus corals responded to contrasting daily light integrals (DLI) and to multi-day variability in DLI, and whether contrasting DLIs altered the effects of ocean acidification. Four light treatments—three with stable DLIs (12.6, 7.6, 2.5 mol photons m−2 d−1) and one with variable DLI that averaged 7.6 mol photons m−2 d−1 were fully crossed with two levels of pCO2 (400 and 900 ppm) in a 63-day aquarium experiment. Adult coral growth and protein content declined as average DLI declined, regardless of whether DLI was stable or variable. In both species, photoacclimation was insufficient to compensate for low DLI, although both effective (φPSII) and maximum (Fv/Fm) quantum yields of photosystem two varied by < 5% between all stable DLI treatments. Under variable DLI, both species adjusted their φPSII on the day of change in DLI, whereas Fv/Fm remained relatively constant despite five-fold difference in DLI between days. Elevated CO2 increased protein content in adult A. tenuis at all DLIs, but otherwise had little effect on measured parameters. For juveniles, both species had reduced survival at low DLI due to overgrowth by Peyssonnelia algae, and A. tenuis growth was fastest at low DLI. Our study shows that the effects of multi-day periods of DLI reductions accumulate over time for corals, negatively affecting Acropora adult growth rates and juvenile survival, and hence slowing reef recovery after disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the effects of long-term exposure to OA on skeletal parameters of four tropical zooxanthellate corals naturally living at CO2 seeps and adjacent control sites from two locations (Dobu and Upa Upasina) in the Papua New Guinea underwater volcanic vent system. The seeps are characterized by seawater pH values ranging from 8.0 to about 7.7. The skeletal porosity of Galaxea fascicularis, Acropora millepora, massive Porites, and Pocillopora damicornis was higher (up to ~ 40%, depending on the species) at the seep sites compared to the control sites. Pocillopora damicornis also showed a decrease of micro-density (up to ~ 7%). Thus, further investigations conducted on this species showed an increase of the volume fraction of the larger pores (up to ~ 7%), a decrease of the intraskeletal organic matrix content (up to ~ 15%), and an increase of the intraskeletal water content (up to ~ 59%) at the seep sites. The organic matrix related strain and crystallite size did not vary between seep and control sites. This multi-species study showed a common phenotypic response among different zooxanthellate corals subjected to the same environmental pressures, leading to the development of a more porous skeletal phenotype under OA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seawater acidification from increasing CO2 is often enhanced in coastal waters due to elevated nutrients and sedimentation. Our understanding of the effects of ocean and coastal acidification on present‐day ecosystems is limited. Here we use data from three independent large‐scale reef monitoring programs to assess coral reef responses associated with changes in mean aragonite saturation state (Ωar) in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBR). Spatial declines in mean Ωar are associated with monotonic declines in crustose coralline algae (up to 3.1‐fold) and coral juvenile densities (1.3‐fold), while non‐calcifying macroalgae greatly increase (up to 3.2‐fold), additionally to their natural changes across and along the GBR. These three key groups of organisms are important proxies for coral reef health. Our data suggest a tipping point at Ωar 3.5–3.6 for these coral reef health indicators. Suspended sediments acted as an additive stressor. The latter suggests that effective water quality management to reduce suspended sediments might locally and temporarily reduce the pressure from ocean acidification on these organisms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]