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Data assimilation is a central problem in many geophysical applications, such as weather forecasting. It aims to estimate the state of a potentially large system, such as the atmosphere, from sparse observations, supplemented by prior physical knowledge. The size of the systems involved and the complexity of the underlying physical equations make it a challenging task from a computational point of view. Neural networks represent a promising method of emulating the physics at low cost, and therefore have the potential to considerably improve and accelerate data assimilation. In this work, we introduce a deep learning approach where the physical system is modeled as a sequence of coarse-to-fine Gaussian prior distributions parametrized by a neural network. This allows us to define an assimilation operator, which is trained in an end-to-end fashion to minimize the reconstruction error on a dataset with different observation processes. We illustrate our approach on chaotic dynamical physical systems with sparse observations, and compare it to traditional variational data assimilation methods.

The spatio-temporal interpolation of large geophysical datasets has historically been adressed by Optimal Interpolation (OI) and more sophisticated model-based or data-driven DA techniques. In the last ten years, the link established between Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE) and Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) opened a new way of handling both large datasets and physically-induced covariance matrix in Optimal Interpolation. Recent advances in the deep learning community also enables to adress this problem as neural architecture embedding data assimilation variational framework. The reconstruction task is seen as a joint learning problem of the prior involved in the variational inner cost and the gradient-based minimization of the latter: both prior models and solvers are stated as neural networks with automatic differentiation which can be trained by minimizing a loss function, typically stated as the mean squared error between some ground truth and the reconstruction. In this work, we draw from the SPDE-based Gaussian Processes to estimate complex prior models able to handle non-stationary covariances in both space and time and provide a stochastic framework for interpretability and uncertainty quantification. Our neural variational scheme is modified to embed an augmented state formulation with both state and SPDE parametrization to estimate. Instead of a neural prior, we use a stochastic PDE as surrogate model along the data assimilation window. The training involves a loss function for both reconstruction task and SPDE prior model, where the likelihood of the SPDE parameters given the true states is involved in the training. Because the prior is stochastic, we can easily draw samples in the prior distribution before conditioning to provide a flexible way to estimate the posterior distribution based on thousands of members.

Wind speed at sea surface is a key quantity for a variety of scientific applications and human activities. Due to the non-linearity of the phenomenon, a complete description of such variable is made infeasible on both the small scale and large spatial extents. Methods relying on Data Assimilation techniques, despite being the state-of-the-art for Numerical Weather Prediction, can not provide the reconstructions with a spatial resolution that can compete with satellite imagery. In this work we propose a framework based on Variational Data Assimilation and Deep Learning concepts. This framework is applied to recover rich-in-time, high-resolution information on sea surface wind speed. We design our experiments using synthetic wind data and different sampling schemes for high-resolution and low-resolution versions of original data to emulate the real-world scenario of spatio-temporally heterogeneous observations. Extensive numerical experiments are performed to assess systematically the impact of low and high-resolution wind fields and in-situ observations on the model reconstruction performance. We show that in-situ observations with richer temporal resolution represent an added value in terms of the model reconstruction performance. We show how a multi-modal approach, that explicitly informs the model about the heterogeneity of the available observations, can improve the reconstruction task by exploiting the complementary information in spatial and local point-wise data. To conclude, we propose an analysis to test the robustness of the chosen framework against phase delay and amplitude biases in low-resolution data and against interruptions of in-situ observations supply at evaluation time, Comment: 22 pages, 13 figures. This work is to be submitted to the IEEE for possible publication

Artificial intelligence and deep learning are currently reshaping numerical simulation frameworks by introducing new modeling capabilities. These frameworks are extensively investigated in the context of model correction and parameterization where they demonstrate great potential and often outperform traditional physical models. Most of these efforts in defining hybrid dynamical systems follow {offline} learning strategies in which the neural parameterization (called here sub-model) is trained to output an ideal correction. Yet, these hybrid models can face hard limitations when defining what should be a relevant sub-model response that would translate into a good forecasting performance. End-to-end learning schemes, also referred to as online learning, could address such a shortcoming by allowing the deep learning sub-models to train on historical data. However, defining end-to-end training schemes for the calibration of neural sub-models in hybrid systems requires working with an optimization problem that involves the solver of the physical equations. Online learning methodologies thus require the numerical model to be differentiable, which is not the case for most modeling systems. To overcome this difficulty and bypass the differentiability challenge of physical models, we present an efficient and practical online learning approach for hybrid systems. The method, called EGA for Euler Gradient Approximation, assumes an additive neural correction to the physical model, and an explicit Euler approximation of the gradients. We demonstrate that the EGA converges to the exact gradients in the limit of infinitely small time steps. Numerical experiments are performed on various case studies, including prototypical ocean-atmosphere dynamics. Results show significant improvements over offline learning, highlighting the potential of end-to-end online learning for hybrid modeling.

Historically, the interpolation of large geophysical datasets has been tackled using methods like Optimal Interpolation (OI) or model-based data assimilation schemes. However, the recent connection between Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDE) and Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) introduced a novel approach to handle large datasets making use of sparse precision matrices in OI. Recent advancements in deep learning also addressed this issue by incorporating data assimilation into neural architectures: it treats the reconstruction task as a joint learning problem involving both prior model and solver as neural networks. Though, it requires further developments to quantify the associated uncertainties. In our work, we leverage SPDEbased Gaussian Processes to estimate complex prior models capable of handling nonstationary covariances in space and time. We develop a specific architecture able to learn both state and SPDE parameters as a neural SPDE solver, while providing the precisionbased analytical form of the SPDE sampling. The latter is used as a surrogate model along the data assimilation window. Because the prior is stochastic, we can easily draw samples from it and condition the members by our neural solver, allowing flexible estimation of the posterior distribution based on large ensemble. We demonstrate this framework on realistic Sea Surface Height datasets. Our solution improves the OI baseline, aligns with neural prior while enabling uncertainty quantification and online parameter estimation.

In this paper, we propose a generic algorithm to train machine learning-based subgrid parametrizations online, i.e., with a posteriori loss functions, but for non-differentiable numerical solvers. The proposed approach leverages a neural emulator to approximate the reduced state-space solver, which is then used to allow gradient propagation through temporal integration steps. We apply this methodology on a single layer quasi-geostrophic system with topography, known to be highly unstable in around 500 temporal iterations with offline strategies. Using our algorithm, we are able to train a parametrization that recovers most of the benefits of online strategies without having to compute the gradient of the original solver. It is demonstrated that training the neural emulator and parametrization components separately with different loss quantities is necessary in order to minimize the propagation of approximation biases. Experiments on emulator architectures with different complexities also indicates that emulator performance is key in order to learn an accurate parametrization. This work is a step towards learning parametrization with online strategies for weather models., Comment: 33 pages, 7 figures, submitted for publication in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES)

This paper addresses the challenge of boosting the precision of multi-path long-term vessel trajectory forecasting on engineered sequences of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data using feature fusion for problem shifting. We have developed a deep auto-encoder model and a phased framework approach to predict the next 12 hours of vessel trajectories using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data as input. To this end, we fuse the spatiotemporal features from the AIS messages with probabilistic features engineered from historical AIS data referring to potential routes and destinations. As a result, we reduce the forecasting uncertainty by shifting the problem into a trajectory reconstruction problem. The probabilistic features have an F1-Score of approximately 85% and 75% for the vessel route and destination prediction, respectively. Under such circumstances, we achieved an R2 Score of over 98% with different layer structures and varying feature combinations; the high R2 Score is a natural outcome of the well-defined shipping lanes in the study region. However, our proposal stands out among competing approaches as it demonstrates the capability of complex decision-making during turnings and route selection. Furthermore, we have shown that our model achieves more accurate forecasting with average and median errors of 11km and 6km, respectively, a 25% improvement from the current state-of-the-art approaches. The resulting model from this proposal is deployed as part of a broader Decision Support System to safeguard whales by preventing the risk of vessel-whale collisions under the smartWhales initiative and acting on the Gulf of St. Lawrence in Atlantic Canada.

The ocean profoundly influences human activities and plays a critical role in climate regulation. Our understanding has improved over the last decades with the advent of satellite remote sensing data, allowing us to capture essential quantities over the globe, e.g., sea surface height (SSH). However, ocean satellite data presents challenges for information extraction due to their sparsity and irregular sampling, signal complexity, and noise. Machine learning (ML) techniques have demonstrated their capabilities in dealing with large-scale, complex signals. Therefore we see an opportunity for ML models to harness the information contained in ocean satellite data. However, data representation and relevant evaluation metrics can be the defining factors when determining the success of applied ML. The processing steps from the raw observation data to a ML-ready state and from model outputs to interpretable quantities require domain expertise, which can be a significant barrier to entry for ML researchers. OceanBench is a unifying framework that provides standardized processing steps that comply with domain-expert standards. It provides plug-and-play data and pre-configured pipelines for ML researchers to benchmark their models and a transparent configurable framework for researchers to customize and extend the pipeline for their tasks. In this work, we demonstrate the OceanBench framework through a first edition dedicated to SSH interpolation challenges. We provide datasets and ML-ready benchmarking pipelines for the long-standing problem of interpolating observations from simulated ocean satellite data, multi-modal and multi-sensor fusion issues, and transfer-learning to real ocean satellite observations. The OceanBench framework is available at github.com/jejjohnson/oceanbench and the dataset registry is available at github.com/quentinf00/oceanbench-data-registry., Comment: J. Emmanuel Johnson and Quentin Febvre contributed equally to this work

Satellite altimetry combined with data assimilation and optimal interpolation schemes have deeply renewed our ability to monitor sea surface dynamics. Recently, deep learning (DL) schemes have emerged as appealing solutions to address space-time interpolation problems. The scarcity of real altimetry dataset, in terms of space-time coverage of the sea surface, however impedes the training of state-of-the-art neural schemes on real-world case-studies. Here, we leverage both simulations of ocean dynamics and satellite altimeters to train simulation-based neural mapping schemes for the sea surface height and demonstrate their performance for real altimetry datasets. We analyze further how the ocean simulation dataset used during the training phase impacts this performance. This experimental analysis covers both the resolution from eddy-present configurations to eddy-rich ones, forced simulations vs. reanalyses using data assimilation and tide-free vs. tide-resolving simulations. Our benchmarking framework focuses on a Gulf Stream region for a realistic 5-altimeter constellation using NEMO ocean simulations and 4DVarNet mapping schemes. All simulation-based 4DVarNets outperform the operational observation-driven and reanalysis products, namely DUACS and GLORYS. The more realistic the ocean simulation dataset used during the training phase, the better the mapping. The best 4DVarNet mapping was trained from an eddy-rich and tide-free simulation datasets. It improves the resolved longitudinal scale from 151 kilometers for DUACS and 241 kilometers for GLORYS to 98 kilometers and reduces the root mean squared error (RMSE) by 23% and 61%. These results open research avenues for new synergies between ocean modelling and ocean observation using learning-based approaches.

Generating accurate extremes from an observational data set is crucial when seeking to estimate risks associated with the occurrence of future extremes which could be larger than those already observed. Applications range from the occurrence of natural disasters to financial crashes. Generative approaches from the machine learning community do not apply to extreme samples without careful adaptation. Besides, asymptotic results from extreme value theory (EVT) give a theoretical framework to model multivariate extreme events, especially through the notion of multivariate regular variation. Bridging these two fields, this paper details a variational autoencoder (VAE) approach for sampling multivariate heavy-tailed distributions, i.e., distributions likely to have extremes of particularly large intensities. We illustrate the relevance of our approach on a synthetic data set and on a real data set of discharge measurements along the Danube river network. The latter shows the potential of our approach for flood risks' assessment. In addition to outperforming the standard VAE for the tested data sets, we also provide a comparison with a competing EVT-based generative approach. On the tested cases, our approach improves the learning of the dependency structure between extremes.

Data Assimilation (DA) and Uncertainty quantification (UQ) are extensively used in analysing and reducing error propagation in high-dimensional spatial-temporal dynamics. Typical applications span from computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to geoscience and climate systems. Recently, much effort has been given in combining DA, UQ and machine learning (ML) techniques. These research efforts seek to address some critical challenges in high-dimensional dynamical systems, including but not limited to dynamical system identification, reduced order surrogate modelling, error covariance specification and model error correction. A large number of developed techniques and methodologies exhibit a broad applicability across numerous domains, resulting in the necessity for a comprehensive guide. This paper provides the first overview of the state-of-the-art researches in this interdisciplinary field, covering a wide range of applications. This review aims at ML scientists who attempt to apply DA and UQ techniques to improve the accuracy and the interpretability of their models, but also at DA and UQ experts who intend to integrate cutting-edge ML approaches to their systems. Therefore, this article has a special focus on how ML methods can overcome the existing limits of DA and UQ, and vice versa. Some exciting perspectives of this rapidly developing research field are also discussed.

Synthetic Aperture Radar is known to be able to provide high-resolution estimates of surface wind speed. These estimates usually rely on a Geophysical Model Function (GMF) that has difficulties accounting for non-wind processes such as rain events. Convolutional neural network, on the other hand, have the capacity to use contextual information and have demonstrated their ability to delimit rainfall areas. By carefully building a large dataset of SAR observations from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission, collocated with both GMF and atmospheric model wind speeds as well as rainfall estimates, we were able to train a wind speed estimator with reduced errors under rain. Collocations with in-situ wind speed measurements from buoys show a root mean square error that is reduced by 27% (resp. 45%) under rainfall estimated at more than 1 mm/h (resp. 3 mm/h). These results demonstrate the capacity of deep learning models to correct rain-related errors in SAR products., Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures

Sea surface height (SSH) is a key geophysical parameter for monitoring and studying meso-scale surface ocean dynamics. For several decades, the mapping of SSH products at regional and global scales has relied on nadir satellite altimeters, which provide one-dimensional-only along-track satellite observations of the SSH. The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission deploys a new sensor that acquires for the first time wide-swath two-dimensional observations of the SSH. This provides new means to observe the ocean at previously unresolved spatial scales. A critical challenge for the exploiting of SWOT data is the separation of the SSH from other signals present in the observations. In this paper, we propose a novel learning-based approach for this SWOT calibration problem. It benefits from calibrated nadir altimetry products and a scale-space decomposition adapted to SWOT swath geometry and the structure of the different processes in play. In a supervised setting, our method reaches the state-of-the-art residual error of ~1.4cm while proposing a correction on the entire spectral from 10km to 1000k, Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, Preprint

Satellite altimetry is a unique way for direct observations of sea surface dynamics. This is however limited to the surface-constrained geostrophic component of sea surface velocities. Ageostrophic dynamics are however expected to be significant for horizontal scales below 100~km and time scale below 10~days. The assimilation of ocean general circulation models likely reveals only a fraction of this ageostrophic component. Here, we explore a learning-based scheme to better exploit the synergies between the observed sea surface tracers, especially sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST), to better inform sea surface currents. More specifically, we develop a 4DVarNet scheme which exploits a variational data assimilation formulation with trainable observations and {\em a priori} terms. An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) in a region of the Gulf Stream suggests that SST-SSH synergies could reveal sea surface velocities for time scales of 2.5-3.0 days and horizontal scales of 0.5$^\circ$-0.7$^\circ$, including a significant fraction of the ageostrophic dynamics ($\approx$ 47\%). The analysis of the contribution of different observation data, namely nadir along-track altimetry, wide-swath SWOT altimetry and SST data, emphasizes the role of SST features for the reconstruction at horizontal spatial scales ranging from \nicefrac{1}{20}$^\circ$ to \nicefrac{1}{4}$^\circ$.

Optimal Interpolation (OI) is a widely used, highly trusted algorithm for interpolation and reconstruction problems in geosciences. With the influx of more satellite missions, we have access to more and more observations and it is becoming more pertinent to take advantage of these observations in applications such as forecasting and reanalysis. With the increase in the volume of available data, scalability remains an issue for standard OI and it prevents many practitioners from effectively and efficiently taking advantage of these large sums of data to learn the model hyperparameters. In this work, we leverage recent advances in Neural Fields (NerFs) as an alternative to the OI framework where we show how they can be easily applied to standard reconstruction problems in physical oceanography. We illustrate the relevance of NerFs for gap-filling of sparse measurements of sea surface height (SSH) via satellite altimetry and demonstrate how NerFs are scalable with comparable results to the standard OI. We find that NerFs are a practical set of methods that can be readily applied to geoscience interpolation problems and we anticipate a wider adoption in the future., Comment: Machine Learning and the Physical Sciences workshop, NeurIPS 2022

We address Lagrangian drift simulation in geophysical dynamics and explore deep learning approaches to overcome known limitations of state-of-the-art model-based and Markovian approaches in terms of computational complexity and error propagation. We introduce a novel architecture, referred to as DriftNet, inspired from the Eulerian Fokker-Planck representation of Lagrangian dynamics. Numerical experiments for Lagrangian drift simulation at the sea surface demonstrates the relevance of DriftNet w.r.t. state-of-the-art schemes. Benefiting from the fully-convolutional nature of Drift-Net, we explore through a neural inversion how to diagnose modelderived velocities w.r.t. real drifter trajectories.

The reconstruction of gap-free signals from observation data is a critical challenge for numerous application domains, such as geoscience and space-based earth observation, when the available sensors or the data collection processes lead to irregularly-sampled and noisy observations. Optimal interpolation (OI), also referred to as kriging, provides a theoretical framework to solve interpolation problems for Gaussian processes (GP). The associated computational complexity being rapidly intractable for n-dimensional tensors and increasing numbers of observations, a rich literature has emerged to address this issue using ensemble methods, sparse schemes or iterative approaches. Here, we introduce a neural OI scheme. It exploits a variational formulation with convolutional auto-encoders and a trainable iterative gradient-based solver. Theoretically equivalent to the OI formulation, the trainable solver asymptotically converges to the OI solution when dealing with both stationary and non-stationary linear spatio-temporal GPs. Through a bi-level optimization formulation, we relate the learning step and the selection of the training loss to the theoretical properties of the OI, which is an unbiased estimator with minimal error variance. Numerical experiments for 2D+t synthetic GP datasets demonstrate the relevance of the proposed scheme to learn computationally-efficient and scalable OI models and solvers from data. As illustrated for a real-world interpolation problems for satellite-derived geophysical dynamics, the proposed framework also extends to non-linear and multimodal interpolation problems and significantly outperforms state-of-the-art interpolation methods, when dealing with very high missing data rates.

The reconstruction of sea surface currents from satellite altimeter data is a key challenge in spatial oceanography, especially with the upcoming wide-swath SWOT (Surface Ocean and Water Topography) altimeter mission. Operational systems however generally fail to retrieve mesoscale dynamics for horizontal scales below 100km and time-scale below 10 days. Here, we address this challenge through the 4DVarnet framework, an end-to-end neural scheme backed on a variational data assimilation formulation. We introduce a parametrization of the 4DVarNet scheme dedicated to the space-time interpolation of satellite altimeter data. Within an observing system simulation experiment (NATL60), we demonstrate the relevance of the proposed approach both for nadir and nadir+swot altimeter configurations for two contrasted case-study regions in terms of upper ocean dynamics. We report relative improvement with respect to the operational optimal interpolation between 30% and 60% in terms of reconstruction error. Interestingly, for the nadir+swot altimeter configuration, we reach resolved space-time scales below 70km and 7days. The code is open-source to enable reproductibility and future collaborative developments. Beyond its applicability to large-scale domains, we also address uncertainty quantification issues and generalization properties of the proposed learning setting. We discuss further future research avenues and extensions to other ocean data assimilation and space oceanography challenges.

Combining remote-sensing data with in-situ observations to achieve a comprehensive 3D reconstruction of the ocean state presents significant challenges for traditional interpolation techniques. To address this, we developed the CLuster Optimal Interpolation Neural Network (CLOINet), which combines the robust mathematical framework of the Optimal Interpolation (OI) scheme with a self-supervised clustering approach. CLOINet efficiently segments remote sensing images into clusters to reveal non-local correlations, thereby enhancing fine-scale oceanic reconstructions. We trained our network using outputs from an Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM), which also facilitated various testing scenarios. Our Observing System Simulation Experiments aimed to reconstruct deep salinity fields using Sea Surface Temperature (SST) or Sea Surface Height (SSH), alongside sparse in-situ salinity observations. The results showcased a significant reduction in reconstruction error up to $40\%$ and the ability to resolve scales $50\%$ smaller compared to baseline OI techniques. Remarkably, even though CLOINet was trained exclusively on simulated data, it accurately reconstructed an unseen SST field using only glider temperature observations and satellite chlorophyll concentration data. This demonstrates how deep learning networks like CLOINet can potentially lead the integration of modeling and observational efforts in developing an ocean digital twin.

Wind speed retrieval at sea surface is of primary importance for scientific and operational applications. Besides weather models, in-situ measurements and remote sensing technologies, especially satellite sensors, provide complementary means to monitor wind speed. As sea surface winds produce sounds that propagate underwater, underwater acoustics recordings can also deliver fine-grained wind-related information. Whereas model-driven schemes, especially data assimilation approaches, are the state-of-the-art schemes to address inverse problems in geoscience, machine learning techniques become more and more appealing to fully exploit the potential of observation datasets. Here, we introduce a deep learning approach for the retrieval of wind speed time series from underwater acoustics possibly complemented by other data sources such as weather model reanalyses. Our approach bridges data assimilation and learning-based frameworks to benefit both from prior physical knowledge and computational efficiency. Numerical experiments on real data demonstrate that we outperform the state-of-the-art data-driven methods with a relative gain up to 16% in terms of RMSE. Interestingly, these results support the relevance of the time dynamics of underwater acoustic data to better inform the time evolution of wind speed. They also show that multimodal data, here underwater acoustics data combined with ECMWF reanalysis data, may further improve the reconstruction performance, including the robustness with respect to missing underwater acoustics data., Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures

Remote sensing of rainfall events is critical for both operational and scientific needs, including for example weather forecasting, extreme flood mitigation, water cycle monitoring, etc. Ground-based weather radars, such as NOAA's Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD), provide reflectivity and precipitation estimates of rainfall events. However, their observation range is limited to a few hundred kilometers, prompting the exploration of other remote sensing methods, particularly over the open ocean, that represents large areas not covered by land-based radars. Here we propose a deep learning approach to deliver a three-class segmentation of SAR observations in terms of rainfall regimes. SAR satellites deliver very high resolution observations with a global coverage. This seems particularly appealing to inform fine-scale rain-related patterns, such as those associated with convective cells with characteristic scales of a few kilometers. We demonstrate that a convolutional neural network trained on a collocated Sentinel-1/NEXRAD dataset clearly outperforms state-of-the-art filtering schemes such as the Koch's filters. Our results indicate high performance in segmenting precipitation regimes, delineated by thresholds at 24.7, 31.5, and 38.8 dBZ. Compared to current methods that rely on Koch's filters to draw binary rainfall maps, these multi-threshold learning-based models can provide rainfall estimation. They may be of interest in improving high-resolution SAR-derived wind fields, which are degraded by rainfall, and provide an additional tool for the study of rain cells., Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures

Due to the irregular space-time sampling of sea surface observations, the reconstruction of sea surface dynamics is a challenging inverse problem. While satellite altimetry provides a direct observation of the sea surface height (SSH), which relates to the divergence-free component of sea surface currents, the associated sampling pattern prevents from retrieving fine-scale sea surface dynamics, typically below a 10-day time scale. By contrast, other satellite sensors provide higher-resolution observations of sea surface tracers such as sea surface temperature (SST). Multimodal inversion schemes then arise as an appealing strategy. Though theoretical evidence supports the existence of an explicit relationship between sea surface temperature and sea surface dynamics under specific dynamical regimes, the generalization to the variety of upper ocean dynamical regimes is complex. Here, we investigate this issue from a physics-informed learning perspective. We introduce a trainable multimodal inversion scheme for the reconstruction of sea surface dynamics from multi-source satellite-derived observations. The proposed 4DVarNet schemes combine a variational formulation involving trainable observation and a priori terms with a trainable gradient-based solver. We report an application to the reconstruction of the divergence-free component of sea surface dynamics from satellite-derived SSH and SST data. An observing system simulation experiment for a Gulf Stream region supports the relevance of our approach compared with state-of-the-art schemes. We report relative improvement greater than 50% compared with the operational altimetry product in terms of root mean square error and resolved space-time scales. We discuss further the application and extension of the proposed approach for the reconstruction and forecasting of geophysical dynamics from irregularly-sampled satellite observations.

The use of machine learning to build subgrid parametrizations for climate models is receiving growing attention. State-of-the-art strategies address the problem as a supervised learning task and optimize algorithms that predict subgrid fluxes based on information from coarse resolution models. In practice, training data are generated from higher resolution numerical simulations transformed in order to mimic coarse resolution simulations. By essence, these strategies optimize subgrid parametrizations to meet so-called $\textit{a priori}$ criteria. But the actual purpose of a subgrid parametrization is to obtain good performance in terms of $\textit{a posteriori}$ metrics which imply computing entire model trajectories. In this paper, we focus on the representation of energy backscatter in two dimensional quasi-geostrophic turbulence and compare parametrizations obtained with different learning strategies at fixed computational complexity. We show that strategies based on $\textit{a priori}$ criteria yield parametrizations that tend to be unstable in direct simulations and describe how subgrid parametrizations can alternatively be trained end-to-end in order to meet $\textit{a posteriori}$ criteria. We illustrate that end-to-end learning strategies yield parametrizations that outperform known empirical and data-driven schemes in terms of performance, stability and ability to apply to different flow configurations. These results support the relevance of differentiable programming paradigms for climate models in the future., Comment: 42 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES)

For numerous earth observation applications, one may benefit from various satellite sensors to address the reconstruction of some process or information of interest. A variety of satellite sensors deliver observation data with different sampling patterns due satellite orbits and/or their sensitivity to atmospheric conditions (e.g., clour cover, heavy rains,...). Beyond the ability to account for irregularly-sampled observations, the definition of model-driven inversion methods is often limited to specific case-studies where one can explicitly derive a physical model to relate the different observation sources. Here, we investigate how end-to-end learning schemes provide new means to address multimodal inversion problems. The proposed scheme combines a variational formulation with trainable observation operators, {\em a priori} terms and solvers. Through an application to space oceanography, we show how this scheme can successfully extract relevant information from satellite-derived sea surface temperature images and enhance the reconstruction of sea surface currents issued from satellite altimetry data.

The complexity of real-world geophysical systems is often compounded by the fact that the observed measurements depend on hidden variables. These latent variables include unresolved small scales and/or rapidly evolving processes, partially observed couplings, or forcings in coupled systems. This is the case in ocean-atmosphere dynamics, for which unknown interior dynamics can affect surface observations. The identification of computationally-relevant representations of such partially-observed and highly nonlinear systems is thus challenging and often limited to short-term forecast applications. Here, we investigate the physics-constrained learning of implicit dynamical embeddings, leveraging neural ordinary differential equation (NODE) representations. A key objective is to constrain their boundedness, which promotes the generalization of the learned dynamics to arbitrary initial condition. The proposed architecture is implemented within a deep learning framework, and its relevance is demonstrated with respect to state-of-the-art schemes for different case-studies representative of geophysical dynamics.

Modeling the subgrid-scale dynamics of reduced models is a long standing open problem that finds application in ocean, atmosphere and climate predictions where direct numerical simulation (DNS) is impossible. While neural networks (NNs) have already been applied to a range of three-dimensional flows with success, two dimensional flows are more challenging because of the backscatter of energy from small to large scales. We show that learning a model jointly with the dynamical solver and a meaningful \textit{a posteriori}-based loss function lead to stable and realistic simulations when applied to quasi-geostrophic turbulence., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, presented at the Fourth Workshop on Machine Learning and the Physical Sciences (NeurIPS 2021)

Satellite radar altimeters are a key source of observation of ocean surface dynamics. However, current sensor technology and mapping techniques do not yet allow to systematically resolve scales smaller than 100km. With their new sensors, upcoming wide-swath altimeter missions such as SWOT should help resolve finer scales. Current mapping techniques rely on the quality of the input data, which is why the raw data go through multiple preprocessing stages before being used. Those calibration stages are improved and refined over many years and represent a challenge when a new type of sensor start acquiring data. Here we show how a data-driven variational data assimilation framework could be used to jointly learn a calibration operator and an interpolator from non-calibrated data . The proposed framework significantly outperforms the operational state-of-the-art mapping pipeline and truly benefits from wide-swath data to resolve finer scales on the global map as well as in the SWOT sensor geometry.

Vessel trajectory prediction plays a pivotal role in numerous maritime applications and services. While the Automatic Identification System (AIS) offers a rich source of information to address this task, forecasting vessel trajectory using AIS data remains challenging, even for modern machine learning techniques, because of the inherent heterogeneous and multimodal nature of motion data. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to tackle these challenges. We introduce a discrete, high-dimensional representation of AIS data and a new loss function designed to explicitly address heterogeneity and multimodality. The proposed model-referred to as TrAISformer-is a modified transformer network that extracts long-term temporal patterns in AIS vessel trajectories in the proposed enriched space to forecast the positions of vessels several hours ahead. We report experimental results on real, publicly available AIS data. TrAISformer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, with an average prediction performance below 10 nautical miles up to ~10 hours.

Stochastic differential equations (SDEs) are one of the most important representations of dynamical systems. They are notable for the ability to include a deterministic component of the system and a stochastic one to represent random unknown factors. However, this makes learning SDEs much more challenging than ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In this paper, we propose a data driven approach where parameters of the SDE are represented by a neural network with a built-in SDE integration scheme. The loss function is based on a maximum likelihood criterion, under order one Markov Gaussian assumptions. The algorithm is applied to the geometric brownian motion and a stochastic version of the Lorenz-63 model. The latter is particularly hard to handle due to the presence of a stochastic component that depends on the state. The algorithm performance is attested using different simulations results. Besides, comparisons are performed with the reference gradient matching method used for non linear drift estimation, and a neural networks-based method, that does not consider the stochastic term.

Deriving analytical solutions of ordinary differential equations is usually restricted to a small subset of problems and numerical techniques are considered. Inevitably, a numerical simulation of a differential equation will then always be distinct from a true analytical solution. An efficient integration scheme shall further not only provide a trajectory throughout a given state, but also be derived to ensure the generated simulation to be close to the analytical one. Consequently, several integration schemes were developed for different classes of differential equations. Unfortunately, when considering the integration of complex non-linear systems, as well as the identification of non-linear equations from data, this choice of the integration scheme is often far from being trivial. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to learn integration schemes that minimize an integration-related cost function. We demonstrate the relevance of the proposed learning-based approach for non-linear equations and include a quantitative analysis w.r.t. classical state-of-the-art integration techniques, especially where the latter may not apply.

In this paper we present a new strategy to model the subgrid-scale scalar flux in a three-dimensional turbulent incompressible flow using physics-informed neural networks (NNs). When trained from direct numerical simulation (DNS) data, state-of-the-art neural networks, such as convolutional neural networks, may not preserve well known physical priors, which may in turn question their application to real case-studies. To address this issue, we investigate hard and soft constraints into the model based on classical transformation invariances and symmetries derived from physical laws. From simulation-based experiments, we show that the proposed transformation-invariant NN model outperforms both purely data-driven ones as well as parametric state-of-the-art subgrid-scale models. The considered invariances are regarded as regularizers on physical metrics during the a priori evaluation and constrain the distribution tails of the predicted subgrid-scale term to be closer to the DNS. They also increase the stability and performance of the model when used as a surrogate during a large-eddy simulation. Moreover, the transformation-invariant NN is shown to generalize to regimes that have not been seen during the training phase., Comment: 32 pages, 17 figures, accepted for publication in Physical Review Fluids

The data-driven recovery of the unknown governing equations of dynamical systems has recently received an increasing interest. However, the identification of governing equations remains challenging when dealing with noisy and partial observations. Here, we address this challenge and investigate variational deep learning schemes. Within the proposed framework, we jointly learn an inference model to reconstruct the true states of the system and the governing laws of these states from series of noisy and partial data. In doing so, this framework bridges classical data assimilation and state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. We also demonstrate that it generalises state-of-the-art methods. Importantly, both the inference model and the governing model embed stochastic components to account for stochastic variabilities, model errors, and reconstruction uncertainties. Various experiments on chaotic and stochastic dynamical systems support the relevance of our scheme w.r.t. state-of-the-art approaches.

The constant growth of maritime traffic leads to the need of automatic anomaly detection, which has been attracting great research attention. Information provided by AIS (Automatic Identification System) data, together with recent outstanding progresses of deep learning, make vessel monitoring using neural networks (NNs) a very promising approach. This paper analyses a novel neural network we have recently introduced -- GeoTrackNet -- regarding operational contexts. Especially, we aim to evaluate (i) the relevance of the abnormal behaviours detected by GeoTrackNet with respect to expert interpretations, (ii) the extent to which GeoTrackNet may process AIS data streams in real time. We report experiments showing the high potential to meet operational levels of the model.

This paper addresses variational data assimilation from a learning point of view. Data assimilation aims to reconstruct the time evolution of some state given a series of observations, possibly noisy and irregularly-sampled. Using automatic differentiation tools embedded in deep learning frameworks, we introduce end-to-end neural network architectures for data assimilation. It comprises two key components: a variational model and a gradient-based solver both implemented as neural networks. A key feature of the proposed end-to-end learning architecture is that we may train the NN models using both supervised and unsupervised strategies. Our numerical experiments on Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 systems report significant gain w.r.t. a classic gradient-based minimization of the variational cost both in terms of reconstruction performance and optimization complexity. Intriguingly, we also show that the variational models issued from the true Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 ODE representations may not lead to the best reconstruction performance. We believe these results may open new research avenues for the specification of assimilation models in geoscience.

Designing appropriate variational regularization schemes is a crucial part of solving inverse problems, making them better-posed and guaranteeing that the solution of the associated optimization problem satisfies desirable properties. Recently, learning-based strategies have appeared to be very efficient for solving inverse problems, by learning direct inversion schemes or plug-and-play regularizers from available pairs of true states and observations. In this paper, we go a step further and design an end-to-end framework allowing to learn actual variational frameworks for inverse problems in such a supervised setting. The variational cost and the gradient-based solver are both stated as neural networks using automatic differentiation for the latter. We can jointly learn both components to minimize the data reconstruction error on the true states. This leads to a data-driven discovery of variational models. We consider an application to inverse problems with incomplete datasets (image inpainting and multivariate time series interpolation). We experimentally illustrate that this framework can lead to a significant gain in terms of reconstruction performance, including w.r.t. the direct minimization of the variational formulation derived from the known generative model., Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures

The upcoming Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite altimetry mission is expected to yield two-dimensional high-resolution measurements of Sea Surface Height (SSH), thus allowing for a better characterization of the mesoscale and submesoscale eddy field. However, to fulfill the promises of this mission, filtering the tidal component of the SSH measurements is necessary. This challenging problem is crucial since the posterior studies done by physical oceanographers using SWOT data will depend heavily on the selected filtering schemes. In this paper, we cast this problem into a supervised learning framework and propose the use of convolutional neural networks (ConvNets) to estimate fields free of internal tide signals. Numerical experiments based on an advanced North Atlantic simulation of the ocean circulation (eNATL60) show that our ConvNet considerably reduces the imprint of the internal waves in SSH data even in regions unseen by the neural network. We also investigate the relevance of considering additional data from other sea surface variables such as sea surface temperature (SST)., Comment: Accepted for publication in IEEE IGARSS 2020 conference

Bridging physics and deep learning is a topical challenge. While deep learning frameworks open avenues in physical science, the design of physically-consistent deep neural network architectures is an open issue. In the spirit of physics-informed NNs, PDE-NetGen package provides new means to automatically translate physical equations, given as PDEs, into neural network architectures. PDE-NetGen combines symbolic calculus and a neural network generator. The later exploits NN-based implementations of PDE solvers using Keras. With some knowledge of a problem, PDE-NetGen is a plug-and-play tool to generate physics-informed NN architectures. They provide computationally-efficient yet compact representations to address a variety of issues, including among others adjoint derivation, model calibration, forecasting, data assimilation as well as uncertainty quantification. As an illustration, the workflow is first presented for the 2D diffusion equation, then applied to the data-driven and physics-informed identification of uncertainty dynamics for the Burgers equation.

Representing maritime traffic patterns and detecting anomalies from them are key to vessel monitoring and maritime situational awareness. We propose a novel approach -- referred to as GeoTrackNet -- for maritime anomaly detection from AIS data streams. Our model exploits state-of-the-art neural network schemes to learn a probabilistic representation of AIS tracks and a contrario detection to detect abnormal events. The neural network provides a new means to capture complex and heterogeneous patterns in vessels' behaviours, while the \textit{a contrario} detector takes into account the fact that the learnt distribution may be location-dependent. Experiments on a real AIS dataset comprising more than 4.2 million AIS messages demonstrate the relevance of the proposed method compared with state-of-the-art schemes., Comment: IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems

Hyperspectral image unmixing is an inverse problem aiming at recovering the spectral signatures of pure materials of interest (called endmembers) and estimating their proportions (called abundances) in every pixel of the image. However, in spite of a tremendous applicative potential and the avent of new satellite sensors with high temporal resolution, multitemporal hyperspectral unmixing is still a relatively underexplored research avenue in the community, compared to standard image unmixing. In this paper, we propose a new framework for multitemporal unmixing and endmember extraction based on a state-space model, and present a proof of concept on simulated data to show how this representation can be used to inform multitemporal unmixing with external prior knowledge, or on the contrary to learn the dynamics of the quantities involved from data using neural network architectures adapted to the identification of dynamical systems., Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures

We introduce a new strategy designed to help physicists discover hidden laws governing dynamical systems. We propose to use machine learning automatic differentiation libraries to develop hybrid numerical models that combine components based on prior physical knowledge with components based on neural networks. In these architectures, named Deep Neural Numerical Models (DNNMs), the neural network components are used as building-blocks then deployed for learning hidden variables of underlying physical laws governing dynamical systems. In this paper, we illustrate an application of DNNMs to upper ocean dynamics, more precisely the dynamics of a sea surface tracer, the Sea Surface Height (SSH). We develop an advection-based fully differentiable numerical scheme, where parts of the computations can be replaced with learnable ConvNets, and make connections with the single-layer Quasi-Geostrophic (QG) model, a baseline theory in physical oceanography developed decades ago., Comment: Accepted for the 2nd Workshop on Machine Learning and the Physical Sciences (NeurIPS 2019), Vancouver, Canada

For numerous domains, including for instance earth observation, medical imaging, astrophysics,..., available image and signal datasets often involve irregular space-time sampling patterns and large missing data rates. These sampling properties may be critical to apply state-of-the-art learning-based (e.g., auto-encoders, CNNs,...), fully benefit from the available large-scale observations and reach breakthroughs in the reconstruction and identification of processes of interest. In this paper, we address the end-to-end learning of representations of signals, images and image sequences from irregularly-sampled data, i.e. when the training data involved missing data. From an analogy to Bayesian formulation, we consider energy-based representations. Two energy forms are investigated: one derived from auto-encoders and one relating to Gibbs priors. The learning stage of these energy-based representations (or priors) involve a joint interpolation issue, which amounts to solving an energy minimization problem under observation constraints. Using a neural-network-based implementation of the considered energy forms, we can state an end-to-end learning scheme from irregularly-sampled data. We demonstrate the relevance of the proposed representations for different case-studies: namely, multivariate time series, 2D images and image sequences.

This paper addresses the data-driven identification of latent dynamical representations of partially-observed systems, i.e., dynamical systems for which some components are never observed, with an emphasis on forecasting applications, including long-term asymptotic patterns. Whereas state-of-the-art data-driven approaches rely on delay embeddings and linear decompositions of the underlying operators, we introduce a framework based on the data-driven identification of an augmented state-space model using a neural-network-based representation. For a given training dataset, it amounts to jointly learn an ODE (Ordinary Differential Equation) representation in the latent space and reconstructing latent states. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate the relevance of the proposed framework w.r.t. state-of-the-art approaches in terms of short-term forecasting performance and long-term behaviour. We further discuss how the proposed framework relates to Koopman operator theory and Takens' embedding theorem.

The identification of the governing equations of chaotic dynamical systems from data has recently emerged as a hot topic. While the seminal work by Brunton et al. reported proof-of-concepts for idealized observation setting for fully-observed systems, {\em i.e.} large signal-to-noise ratios and high-frequency sampling of all system variables, we here address the learning of data-driven representations of chaotic dynamics for partially-observed systems, including significant noise patterns and possibly lower and irregular sampling setting. Instead of considering training losses based on short-term prediction error like state-of-the-art learning-based schemes, we adopt a Bayesian formulation and state this issue as a data assimilation problem with unknown model parameters. To solve for the joint inference of the hidden dynamics and of model parameters, we combine neural-network representations and state-of-the-art assimilation schemes. Using iterative Expectation-Maximization (EM)-like procedures, the key feature of the proposed inference schemes is the derivation of the posterior of the hidden dynamics. Using a neural-network-based Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) representation of these dynamics, we investigate two strategies: their combination to Ensemble Kalman Smoothers and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based variational approximations of the posterior. Through numerical experiments on the Lorenz-63 system with different noise and time sampling settings, we demonstrate the ability of the proposed schemes to recover and reproduce the hidden chaotic dynamics, including their Lyapunov characteristic exponents, when classic machine learning approaches fail.

In this paper, we adapt Recurrent Neural Networks with Stochastic Layers, which are the state-of-the-art for generating text, music and speech, to the problem of acoustic novelty detection. By integrating uncertainty into the hidden states, this type of network is able to learn the distribution of complex sequences. Because the learned distribution can be calculated explicitly in terms of probability, we can evaluate how likely an observation is then detect low-probability events as novel. The model is robust, highly unsupervised, end-to-end and requires minimum preprocessing, feature engineering or hyperparameter tuning. An experiment on a benchmark dataset shows that our model outperforms the state-of-the-art acoustic novelty detectors., Comment: Accepted to ICASSP 2019