Search

This article undertakes a rhetorical reading of Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr.'s "The Path of the Law" (1897), attending particularly to Holmes's use of the trope of the "oracle" in his legal philosophy to show how Holmes utilizes this figure to interrogate the Anglo-American legal tradition and to articulate his own, new understanding of the task of the law. For Holmes, lawyers reading the "sibylline leaves" of the common law will inevitably make imperfect predictions about how judges will rule a case. In contrast, Holmes suggests that lawyers should be able to make predictions with the same degree of reliability as scientific hypotheses based on the laws of physics. Similarly, Holmes argues that laws should be considered in terms of desired ends, rather than precedent and tradition, and assessed using the new quantitative social science of statistics. Thus, by turning "prophecy" into a figure of rationality, Holmes calls for a radical reinvention of the law as scientifically based and oriented towards the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The provision of clean and potable water and sanitation services remains a critical challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This is exacerbated by climate change, an ever-increasing population, urbanisation, industrialisation, and an increase in water demand, not least for agriculture. A sustainable water future requires more strategic planning and improved decision-making processes. To accomplish this, foresight plays a critical role. Foresight is the ability to study a system and its challenges, anticipate possible future trends, and make informed decisions that foster more desired futures. This paper presents a systematic review of the literature on the strategies or methodologies of foresight utilised to enhance decision-making and future planning for ensuring equitable and sustainable access to clean water in SSA amidst uncertainty and the evolving landscape of economic, social, and environmental challenges. The findings indicate that foresight research in most countries in SSA is in its early stages, is narrowly focused, uses foresight tools or approaches in isolation, and employs siloed approaches for overall decision-making. A transdisciplinary systems approach is recommended to support improved decision-making within sustainable water futures planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the ever-increasing demand for blood resources worldwide, there is a great need to ensure a safe and adequate supply of blood products, and recruiting and retaining blood donors remains one of the primary challenges for blood transfusion agencies. The main objective of this research is to investigate the future development of blood donation culture in Iranian society, emphasizing the the role of social capital. This research is classified as applied in purpose and employs a mixed- methods approach. The statistical population comprises 10 experts of the blood transfusion organization. Purposive sampling method was used to select participants. Fuzzy Delphi and Micmac analysis were used for data analysis. The findings indicate that social capital is the most influential factor in blood donation. Moreover, among the various factors, philanthropy and public education were identified as the top priorities for effectiveness. The results obtained from the effects analysis showed that social capital had the largest direct and indirect effects. Philanthropy and public education also received the highest scores for direct and indirect dependence among other criteria. To address the impending shortage of blood donors in the coming decades, the blood transfusion organization must maintain the number of donors at a level commensurate with social needs by creating a culture and training that promotes voluntary donation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an era when uncertainty and complexity are more tangible than ever, decision-makers are under pressure to turn from short-term politics and departmentalization to safeguard not only current wellbeing but also the wellbeing of future generations via longer term planning and visioning. In regions, as multilevel governance systems, no actor has the power to determine the decisions of others. Place leadership demands the mobilization of different actors to define an effective strategy for future development, by combining institutional, interpretive and network power in a dynamic manner. This paper reflects on how leadership and power shape shared vision in regional foresight processes, and the role of academic knowledge. We conduct an in-depth single case study analysis of 'Euskadi 2040', the visioning initiative launched by the Basque regional government in collaboration with the research institute Orkestra. We articulate five main contributions of research institutes: facilitating the systemic character of the vision; incorporating academic action-oriented knowledge; supporting the divergence from traditional linear planning paradigms towards flexible learning-centred approaches to policy; promoting an interinstitutional and multi-agent shared discourse; and lastly, leveraging knowledge transfer within international networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The following paper adopts the term Future Orienteering to indicate the attitude of openness and preparedness to the future of individuals, communities and organisations. If Futures Studies wants to become an independent field of research, future skills need to be developed with appropriate training paths, and future attitudes and strategies need to be evaluated accurately. Thus, considering the necessity of a measurement system for the evaluation of strategic foresight and future-based activities, this article illustrates a new theoretical model, where special emphasis is placed on the distinction between Forecasting, Foresight and Anticipation, according to the Theory of Anticipation presented in (Poli, Introducing anticipation. In: Poli R (ed) Handbook of anticipation, 2019a); (Poli, Lavorare con Il futuro: idee e strumenti per governarel’incertezza, 2019b); (Poli, Introduction to anticipation studies, 2017). The result is a battery of three synthetic indexes, immediately readable to allow easy comparisons. Here, the following model described represents a preliminary stage in the development of an evaluation system, indeed few suggestions for use will be provided.

Abstract Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of many economies. In today's world of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), SMEs face diverse challenges to survive and stay competitive. SMEs must prepare themselves for these challenges by practicing foresight. However, foresight, and especially corporate foresight, has been conceptualized and researched in the context of large corporations. Applying foresight in SMEs is therefore complicated by the question of how to implement foresight in the context of SMEs given their specific requirements and limitations. This article provides an overview on the literature on the application of foresight in SMEs is, along with a summary of the extent to which SMEs conduct foresight from an organizational and individual perspective. Besides offering a compendium on the state of foresight in SMEs, a research agenda is formulated, incorporating the idea of a toolbox tailored to SMEs based on existing approaches and prior works.

Abstract Background The aim of the current study was to assess the accuracy of expert predictions, which were derived using a Delphi panel foresight study between 2009 and 2011, on a variety of drug-related topics in Finland in 2020. Methods The material used to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions consists of published reports on statistics, survey results, official register data, wastewater analyses and official documents. Whenever possible, we used multiple information sources to ascertain possible changes related to the predictions. Results Between 2009 and 2011, the majority – but not all – of the experts accurately predicted an increase in drug use. Indeed, more people experimented with or used drugs, and more drug residues were found in wastewater monitoring. The experts also correctly predicted an increase in population-level approval of drug use, but this development has been rather slow. Contrary to predictions, there was no marked increase in the use of new synthetic drugs. However, the misuse of buprenorphine increased during the 2010s. In the drug market, unit prices were surprisingly stable over the ten-year period. There were no changes in legislation related to the legal status of drugs, as was foreseen by the experts. However, enforcement moved in the direction foreseen by the experts: more lenient measures have been taken against users. Drug care system reforms favored a combination of mental health and addiction care units between 2009 and 2011, and 2020, as foreseen by the experts. Conclusions It seems to have been easier for the experts to foresee the continuation of existing trends, e.g., increasing use of drugs or widening approval of drugs, than to predict possible changes in the popularity of distinct groups of drugs such as new psychoactive substances (NPS). Even armed with the prediction that drug imports and wholesale would increasingly fall into the domain of organized crime, this undesirable development could not be stopped. Expert disagreement can also be seen as a valuable indication of uncertainty regarding the future. Foresight related to drug-related issues can produce relatively accurate and realistic views of the future at least up to ten years ahead.

The following paper adopts the term Future Orienteering to indicate the attitude of openness and preparedness to the future of individuals, communities and organisations. If Futures Studies wants to become an independent field of research, future skills need to be developed with appropriate training paths, and future attitudes and strategies need to be evaluated accurately. Thus, considering the necessity of a measurement system for the evaluation of strategic foresight and future-based activities, this article illustrates a new theoretical model, where special emphasis is placed on the distinction between Forecasting, Foresight and Anticipation, according to the Theory of Anticipation presented in (Poli, Introducing anticipation. In: Poli R (ed) Handbook of anticipation, 2019a); (Poli, Lavorare con Il futuro: idee e strumenti per governarel'incertezza, 2019b); (Poli, Introduction to anticipation studies, 2017). The result is a battery of three synthetic indexes, immediately readable to allow easy comparisons. Here, the following model described represents a preliminary stage in the development of an evaluation system, indeed few suggestions for use will be provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transport planning as a formalised profession is relatively young and there is no doubt it has evolved over time. In Europe, Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans reflect a change in emphasis from keeping traffic moving to place-based, people-centric planning. Three new developments of significance present themselves to contemporary transport planning: the collision and merging of the digital age with the motor age; a widespread sense of deep (and possibly deepening) uncertainty about the future; and the imperative to address the climate emergency and decarbonise transport. Taken together, such developments are reflected in the recent notion of Triple Access Planning which sits within a so-called 'decide and provide' paradigm – contrasted with traditional transport planning within the 'predict and provide' paradigm. The world is changing significantly with a strong sense that transport planning needs to change accordingly. This paper draws upon the '7 Questions Interview' technique to explore with 23 practitioners in the UK their experience of transport planning practice over time, their hopes and fears for its future and what could be achieved, and their views on enablers of, and barriers to, positive change. The interviews reveal a strong sense that transport planning can face a Sisyphean (seemingly impossible) task of advocating measures that could push towards realisation of economic, social and environmental aspirations, only to find progress with measure approval and implementation thwarted by perennial challenges including lack of political will and public buy-in. While the three new developments mentioned represent potential catalysts for significant change, such change relies on multiple other factors. These include collaborative cross-sector working, a long-term perspective, appropriate funding and political agency, and enhanced communication skills to win hearts and minds. The paper concludes that Sisyphus may continue to struggle to push the transport planning boulder to the top of the hill; unless perhaps Hercules can lend a hand. • Transport planning is evolving in the face of changing circumstances in society. • There is a degree of consensus among transport practitioners on goals and obstacles. • The digital age, climate emergency and deep uncertainty may be catalysts for change. • Effectiveness of transport planning rests in the hands of the public and politicians. • The profession faces a sobering outlook that may be akin to the plight of Sisyphus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article chronicles the experiences and lessons learned in establishing strategic foresight (SF) in a U.S. government organization. This has value to the field of foresight, which is seeking to establish foresight in organizations as an intentional capability to explore alternative futures and work towards preferred futures. This work also has particular value to other federal agencies establishing or considering establishing a SF practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Third places—public and community settings like parks and libraries—are theorized to serve as sources of social connection, community, and play. Yet, young people who hold marginalized identities, such as those experiencing homelessness and housing instability, often endure discrimination in third place settings. This study used game‐based inquiry to partner with recently housed young people who have experienced chronic housing instability (N = 21) to understand how they would (re)imagine future third places. We then analyzed transcripts from these game sessions through qualitative thematic analysis. Participants suggested that certain tenets must be present in third places: they must offer opportunities for agency and individualization; they must meet everyday needs; and they must be explicitly inclusive. To actualize these tenets, participants imagined places that meet many needs and do many things; portable and adaptable physical spaces; freedom to choose how to play; attending to and subverting oppressive social hierarchies; providing choice for privacy or connection; knowing people will be around; and free amenities. These findings have implications for theoretical development, practices in present and future third places, and methodological development of games in research. Highlights: Young people who hold marginalized identities often endure discrimination in third place settings.Game‐based inquiry is a novel way to engage young people in reimagining future third places.Reimagined third places promote agency, meet everyday needs, and are explicitly inclusive.These findings challenge prior theoretical work on third places when considering youth.Current and future third places may embrace these tenets to build inclusive third places for youth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rural management development is a fundamental strategy for achieving sustainable development. However, the current rural management system in Iran faces challenges, such as lack of development and inefficiency. Therefore, it is crucial to explore how rural management can address emerging issues in the future. This study focused on Jiroft County and aimed to identify the key factors and driving forces that influence rural management development. By using data analysis techniques, such as MICMAC and ScenarioWizard, along with the SOAR method, we examined the future scenarios and strategies necessary for implementation of rural management in Jiroft County. The findings revealed that 24 factors were instrumental in improving and developing rural management in the county. Among these factors, "adequate access to credits and financial resources" had the most significant impact on rural management and its development. The study highlighted that the current state of rural management in Jiroft County was largely unsustainable and it predicted that the existing conditions governing the rural management system would undergo changes in the near future. Based on the identified key factors, we generated 9 scenarios for the future development of rural management in Jiroft County. To achieve the most desirable scenario, it was essential to pursue 11 strategies and solutions. One of the proposed operational suggestions was to establish collaborative agreements with institutions and organizations both within and outside the village to effectively coordinate and manage all village affairs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scenario-guided foresight processes are increasingly used to engage a broad range of stakeholders in sharing knowledge, reflecting, and setting priorities to respond to present and future climate change related dynamics. They are particularly useful to inform agricultural policies and planning in the face of a changing climate. Such participatory approaches are key to integrating multidisciplinary expertise, perspectives, and viewpoints, and ensuring that the multi-faceted vulnerabilities and the development needs of diverse groups are addressed in the design, planning, and implementation of climate adaptation policy. However, in practice, ensuring meaningful participation in the policy process is far from straightforward. In this paper, we examine the integration of gender and social inclusion considerations in 15 scenario-guided foresight use cases across Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia to determine the ways in which gender and social inclusion dynamics were considered and integrated at different stages of scenario-guided planning processes. To inform the analysis, we use qualitative data from key informant interviews, interviewing scenario coordinators and a gender and social inclusion expert who was engaged in one of the cases; we also review associated reports and outputs. The results suggest that few scenario-guided planning processes centred gender and social inclusion considerations from an early stage and consistently throughout the interventions, translating often into low diversity of stakeholders and insufficient depth reached in the content produced. A number of common challenges are reported including time, budget, and human resource constraints, as well as existing power and institutional dynamics. The latter includes, for instance, low women's representation in technical organizations or important hierarchical social norms structuring discussions. While the focus on the future can disrupt established modes of doing, the complexity of foresight methods can also undermine effective participation leading to important trade-offs. Innovations in the modes of engagement and parallel processes with diverse groups can be important leverage points for inclusion within policymaking processes. Key policy insights: Gender and social inclusion should be prioritized from the onset and integrated at different stages of scenario-guided planning processes, notably by allocating more time, human, and financial resources to ensure inclusiveness. Parallel consultations among diverse organizations and groups can provide effective spaces for often-sidelined or marginalized groups' interests and needs to be integrated into policy decision-making given the existing power structures that regulate access to many workshops and related discussions. Multi-scale engagements with different networks also help deepen understanding and reconcile gaps across scales of decision-making (e.g. from local level to national level). Practitioners should further their use of foresight processes and development of tools and methods for integrating gender and social inclusion in these as part of the policy process, as well as strengthen the capacities, expertise, and role of conveners. Promotion and dissemination of existing gender and social inclusion research and documentation as well as support for learning and reflection to refine identified leverage points can lead to improved success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers how literature reaches a variety of different audiences and can effect practical change within a wider social ecosystem through the concepts of the 'wood wide web' and 'thinking mycorrhizally', developed here as part of a pragmatic 'sympoietics' of action. I first set out how these terms, stemming initially from forest ecology research and environmental humanities respectively, allow us to conceptualize literary texts as an epistemological species that both draws on and further contributes to our understanding of interspecies communication. What is at stake is therefore not just how we might live together in a broken world but how we might know about this living together and seek to do so in a more systemically just way. This particular kind of relationality is explored through the case study of contemporary German author, poet and performer, Ulrike Almut Sandig and her remediation of stories by the Brothers Grimm and the different kinds of communication that follow. The different routes for literature thus explored have repercussions for the role of the literary critic and his or her remediation of literary networks around the globe. These repercussions are teased out with an eye to very practical applications of literature, and the expertise of the literary scholar, in a variety of non-literary contexts but with a particular focus on working with professional government and community-based decision makers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future‐making, the act of imagining and producing the future, is becoming increasingly relevant in scholarly and practitioner debates. In a constantly evolving society where the future is difficult to navigate, there is an urgent need to explore new and innovative ways of imagining plausible futures that are more desirable to people. The future‐making literature proposes different practices, tools, options and possibilities for envisioning futures and advancing the debate on issues that affect society. To explore how different future‐making approaches influence the generation of future scenarios, we conducted an experiment in which we asked 64 practitioners participating in teams to anticipate and imagine futures using two different future‐making approaches: predictive and imaginative. The resulting future scenarios were then evaluated by 227 practitioners in a postexperiment survey measuring their plausibility and desirability, as well as their similarities and differences in terms of future scenario generation. Our study contributes to both theory and practice. In particular, we contribute to the future‐making debate and enrich current understanding of the different processes and tools adopted in predictive and imaginative future‐making using an experimental approach. Our study also supports practitioners in unpacking the potential of adopting different types of future‐making, from predictive to imaginative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I argue that the adjective δαιμόνιος ('daemonic') and the substantivized adjective τὸ δαιμόνιον ('the daemonic') that occur in Aristotle's dream treatises basically mean 'divine-like,' denoting an illusory appearance of divine intervention, typically in the form of an alleged god-sent prophetic dream. Yet the appearances to which the terms refer are, in fact, neither divine nor supernatural at all, but involve merely coincidental correlations between the dream and the fulfilling event. It is shown that Aristotle's use of 'daemonic' is traditional and reflects the endoxon that prophetic dreams are closely related to the divine. The paper also examines a set of earlier readings of the daemonic in De divinatione in relation to the proposed interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are the backbone of many economies. In today's world of VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), SMEs face diverse challenges to survive and stay competitive. SMEs must prepare themselves for these challenges by practicing foresight. However, foresight, and especially corporate foresight, has been conceptualized and researched in the context of large corporations. Applying foresight in SMEs is therefore complicated by the question of how to implement foresight in the context of SMEs given their specific requirements and limitations. This article provides an overview on the literature on the application of foresight in SMEs is, along with a summary of the extent to which SMEs conduct foresight from an organizational and individual perspective. Besides offering a compendium on the state of foresight in SMEs, a research agenda is formulated, incorporating the idea of a toolbox tailored to SMEs based on existing approaches and prior works. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban mobility infrastructures have a major impact on the everyday life of city residents. Not only their mobility, but also their health, enjoyment of life and development of lifestyle preferences are affected by them. However, inclusive participation in infrastructure planning processes is difficult to achieve. We explore a foresight approach that develops desirable urban visions that involve residents in the preparation of decisions that will impact their lives. We propose future-oriented co-design workshops for the operationalisation of a capabilitarian focus on conscientisation, conciliation and collaboration to involve citizens in the visioning of infrastructure planning. The study is based on future-oriented codesign workshops held in Montreal in 2022–2023. Residents were invited to evaluate and discuss various future scenarios that re-imagine a highway currently cutting through the city. The results show the capabilitarian co-design workshops to promote critical thinking, vision creation and to a lesser extent collaboration in the discussions triggered by the future-oriented codesign workshops. The results also reveal the difficulties of making such discussions truly inclusive, as well as their ambivalent relation to urban planning processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines a conceptual framework and a repository of skills for Industry 4.0 that manufacturing managers and other stakeholders can use for training, hiring and developing human resources. The framework and the repository of Industry 4.0 skills were developed by involving industrial practitioners, technology providers, recruitment agencies, research and education organizations in scenario-based focus groups and semi-structured interviews. The results of this study contribute to improving our current understanding of the skills required for Industry 4.0, and they can be used for the identification and assessment of workers' skills as well as the design of skill development programs that match the needs of the industry and for the definition of policies that support the development of human capital to improve the employability of individuals and the performance of manufacturing companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Education Research (1680-6360) is the property of Angle Publishing Co., Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Education Research (1680-6360) is the property of Angle Publishing Co., Ltd. and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: The aim of the current study was to assess the accuracy of expert predictions, which were derived using a Delphi panel foresight study between 2009 and 2011, on a variety of drug-related topics in Finland in 2020. Methods: The material used to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions consists of published reports on statistics, survey results, official register data, wastewater analyses and official documents. Whenever possible, we used multiple information sources to ascertain possible changes related to the predictions. Results: Between 2009 and 2011, the majority – but not all – of the experts accurately predicted an increase in drug use. Indeed, more people experimented with or used drugs, and more drug residues were found in wastewater monitoring. The experts also correctly predicted an increase in population-level approval of drug use, but this development has been rather slow. Contrary to predictions, there was no marked increase in the use of new synthetic drugs. However, the misuse of buprenorphine increased during the 2010s. In the drug market, unit prices were surprisingly stable over the ten-year period. There were no changes in legislation related to the legal status of drugs, as was foreseen by the experts. However, enforcement moved in the direction foreseen by the experts: more lenient measures have been taken against users. Drug care system reforms favored a combination of mental health and addiction care units between 2009 and 2011, and 2020, as foreseen by the experts. Conclusions: It seems to have been easier for the experts to foresee the continuation of existing trends, e.g., increasing use of drugs or widening approval of drugs, than to predict possible changes in the popularity of distinct groups of drugs such as new psychoactive substances (NPS). Even armed with the prediction that drug imports and wholesale would increasingly fall into the domain of organized crime, this undesirable development could not be stopped. Expert disagreement can also be seen as a valuable indication of uncertainty regarding the future. Foresight related to drug-related issues can produce relatively accurate and realistic views of the future at least up to ten years ahead. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims This study aimed to revitalize the historical districts of Shiraz using a foresight methodology, with a focus on the year 2051. Methodology Conducted in 2023 (1402 in the Islamic calendar), the research employed a foresight approach to analyze Shiraz’s historical areas. A researcher-developed questionnaire was utilized for data collection, beginning with a review of existing literature to identify key indicators affecting the revitalization process. These indicators were used to design the research questionnaire, which was validated using the Delphi method. The study’s sample consisted of 30 experts in urban planning, selected through purposive sampling. To assess the key driving forces, foresight tools such as MicMac and Scenario Wizard were applied. Findings Fourteen significant factors impacting the revitalization of Shiraz’s historical fabric were identified, including the degradation of historically significant buildings, limited financial resources for restoration, declining public appreciation of historical buildings, and the underutilization of tourist attractions in these areas. Among the six potential scenarios, the fourth scenario, which exhibited 13 favorable conditions, was deemed the most optimal, followed by the sixth scenario with 12 favorable conditions. The remaining scenarios (first, second, third, and fifth) were classified as critical due to their negative status. The fourth scenario, with a desirability score of 21.10, was the most advantageous, while the fifth scenario, with a critical rate of 33.33%, represented the worst-case scenario. Conclusion Six possible scenarios, each representing different combinations of favorable, static, and critical conditions, may arise in the revitalization of Shiraz’s historical districts. The favorable condition is the most likely to occur, followed by the static state, with the critical condition being the least probable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines promising professions of the future in the Mangystau region of Kazakhstan through the prism of public opinion. The region has unique economic, social and geographical characteristics, which has a significant impact on the formation of sought-after professions in the coming decades. The analysis includes expert opinions, surveys of the local population and labor market research. The focus is on professions related to sustainable development, innovative technologies, renewable energy sources and digitalization. The focus is on the role of environmentally friendly industries and digital transformation in the region's economy. Special importance is attached to the development of education and healthcare, which ensures the training of qualified personnel for the new economy. The study also examines the social expectations and preferences of the local population in the context of current economic realities and global trends. Based on the collected data, forecasts are made about the demand for various professions, as well as recommendations for educational institutions and local governments. It also emphasizes the need for active interaction between the government, business and the public for a successful transition to new professional standards that will ensure the sustainable and dynamic development of the Mangystau region in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Faraoyść is a translinguistic portmanteau neologism that describes the moment when oppressive systems are shaken and appear to be coming to an end, and joyful, liberated worlds feel within reach. The purpose of this research is to demonstrate that faraoyść helped participants helped participants to expand their situated imaginings, which increased their capacity to imagine decolonized worlds. Design/methodology/approach: This research was guided by faraoyść as a conceptual framework that explores the empirical experience of joy through collaborative world-building activities. These praxis-based exercises were tested in a series of workshops both at the 2020 UNESCO Futures Literacy Summit and in collaboration with Negligence Refugees from Lebanon. Findings: When activated by collaboratively designed speculative objects and stories generated through the lens of faraoyść, participants created spaces of rhizomatic world-building that allowed them to imagine beyond the boundaries of their situated imaginings. Once participants had mapped the ways their imaginations were limited by current colonial systems of power, they were able to reorient their roles and develop new means to act within decolonized systems. Originality/value: Faraoyść is a novel conceptual framework that contributes to current movements to decolonize futuring and foresight. This paper also introduces the concepts of rhizomatic world-building – an emergent approach to co-imagination, and situated imaginings, which are the systemic frameworks within which one imagines the ways the world has, is, will and must work. In practice, faraoyść is grounded in abundance and the power of liberatory joy to strengthen and celebrate local traditions, storytelling, world-building and community power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to present the case for critical realism (CR) as a framework in steering the anticipatory and participatory activities an appropriate analysis of complex problems, aiming toward a transformative change. Design/methodology/approach: Through observation, interview and facilitation for Circular Design Lab and Thai Clean Air Network, this paper unpacks their foresight activities, their key findings and subsequently connects to the Morphogenesis analysis based on an alternative foresight epistemology of CR. Findings: Foresight based on CR philosophy provides a deeper understanding of the complexity and invisibility of air pollution issues in Thailand. Acknowledging the transitive reality beyond this study's perception, the activity design applies the iceberg models to investigate problem framing and illustrate the stratified reality in three domains: the empirical based on emission reports and legislative regulations; the actual based on patterns of farmers practice and industrial development, activated by causal mechanisms; the real based on structural and mental models, driven by cultural and belief systems in Thailand. At the bottom layer of the iceberg, the real lies the generative mechanisms of pre-existing structural and cultures that constrain Thai citizen from acting on social change. Research limitations/implications: CR's emancipatory theory provides an immanent critique towards social improvement by illustrating comprehensive causal explanations of complex problems such as air pollution; while morphogenesis theory elaborates on the unconscious domination of the existing social structures, agencies, and cultures. Thus, the ethical inquiry of CR research is committed to the emancipation of false beliefs and creating conditions for "human prosperity". However, this non-neutral value commitment is debated in the futures studies field. Practical implications: The anticipatory activities on air pollution in Thailand bring to light the reality of power and oppression beyond human perception and illustrate the connection to the belief systems and its consequential action or lack thereof in dealing with the issues. The insight to power relationship provides an unconventional way to empower citizens in creating transformative change. Originality/value: Modern foresight practice has developed under western cultures and societies. Recent efforts are made to investigate the epistemology underlying this field, for the future issues are ever more complex and interrelated across multiple sectors. This requires this study's consideration of the meaning of knowledge and knowing, influencing the research paradigm. This paper proposes CR as a suitable foresight approach to emancipate this study from the widely accepted epistemologies and examine this study's presupposition about social reality by a philosophical explanation based on the elements of ontology, causation, structure and persons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Horizon scanning is a process to generate foresight – insight into how the future could unfold. Horizon scanning involves systematically searching a wide range of information sources for early signals of change, collecting those signals in a database, and exploring their possible implications for the future. The focus is often on external change in the broad contextual environment of a field or organization, i.e., the social, economic, technological, and governance domains. External change could be highly disruptive and is unlikely to be on the radar of decision makers. Early awareness of changes and monitoring their development over time can help natural resource planners, managers, and policymakers prepare for emerging challenges and opportunities. This paper introduces horizon scanning, characterizes different approaches and techniques, outlines the basic process, and briefly describes artificial intelligence in horizon scanning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Humanities & Tourism Research (JoHUT) is the property of Journal of Humanities & Tourism Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study presents a novel comparative analysis on global energy scenarios in terms of main characteristics, scenario building frameworks and time frames. The study analyzes each energy scenario's outputs and outlooks by 2040 such as gross domestic product growth, technology developments, primary energy demand by sector, energy supply by fuel, energy intensity and carbon emissions. Based on the foresight semiquantitative method, global energy driving forces which play significant roles in reshaping the world energy future by 2040 have been identified. The study applies mathematical principles to quantify the rational judgments of an expert panel in social, technological, economic, environmental and political framework through cross-impact analysis. Among the 10 global energy driving forces by 2040, population growth rate and climate change are identified as social and environmental driving forces, respectively. Investment in infrastructures, financial shocks, consumer behavior and energy efficiency are marked as economic driving forces, while global governance and geopolitical relationships are identified as the global energy market's political driving force. And finally, technological development in renewable energies as well as in oil and gas upstream sector is recognized as a technological driving force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society's greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet, the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain elusive. However, there are also emerging trends that are currently less widely appreciated. We report here the results of a horizon scan to identify developing issues likely to affect UK forest management within the next 50 years. These are issues that are presently under-recognized but have potential for significant impact across the sector and beyond. As the forest management sector naturally operates over long timescales, the importance of using good foresight is self-evident. We followed a tried-and-tested horizon scanning methodology involving a diverse Expert Panel to collate and prioritize a longlist of 180 issues. The top 15 issues identified are presented in the Graphical Abstract. The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio-economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was 'Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse', reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society. These and many of the other issues are large scale, with far-reaching implications. We must be careful to avoid inaction through being overwhelmed, or indeed to merely focus on 'easy wins' without considering broader ramifications. Our responses to each of the challenges and opportunities highlighted must be synergistic and coherent, involving landscape-scale planning. A more adaptive approach to forest management will be essential, encouraging continual innovation and learning. The 15 horizon scan issues presented here are a starting point on which to build further research, prompt debate and action, and develop evidence-based policy and practice. We hope that this stimulates greater recognition of how our forests and sector may need to change to be fit for the future. In some cases, these changes will need to be fundamental and momentous. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractIn recent years, many studies have paid attention to servant leadership in different fields and occasions, yet few studies have paid attention to higher education in Afghanistan. The current explanatory study examined to what extent university teachers use the four principles of servant leadership (empathy, awareness, conceptualization and foresight) in EFL classrooms and investigated the effects of each principle on EFL students’ development and learning. This study used a mixed-method technique, collecting data from 116 students through a questionnaire and 9 students via semi-structured interviews. Both sets of findings indicated that all EFL teachers mostly have used the four principles of servant leadership in their instructions and classrooms. Also, inferential statistics unveiled that no robust difference exists between students’ reported experiences of their teachers’ use of servant leadership principles and various genders and years of schooling. Besides, qualitative findings revealed that the implementation of those principles has had some impacts and effects on students’ empowerment and learning development. The positive points were motivation, encouragement, a sense of care, a sense of belonging and engagement in learning. However, the limitations observed were that some teachers consistently differentiated between less engaged and more capable students during class activities, and they provided limited support for students to overcome challenges. Furthermore, the study offered some pedagogical implications such as promoting servant leadership principles through conducting short capacity-building workshops and establishing leadership centers at campuses.

Anticipation is increasingly recognized as a valuable dimension for promoting more responsible STI practices. Various normative frameworks acknowledge anticipation as a means to enable critique and/or reflection. However, the degrees of critique and reflection that anticipation can or should enable have remained under-researched. By exploring the critical-reflective affordances that anticipation could offer for problematizing STIs in the present, this article aims to advance the theoretical development of anticipation as a dimension for promoting more responsible STIs. The article suggests that the potential critical-reflective radicality of anticipation is modulated by the critical-reflective spaces of problematization and/or scrutiny afforded by the normative frameworks in which anticipation is interpreted and for which it is enacted. Against this background, the article provides some tentative variables for assessing these critical-reflective affordances and specifies the roles that different modes of anticipation might play in opening up distinct, interconnected aspects of STI to problematization and/or scrutiny.