2,684 results on '"FERTILITY decline"'
Search Results
2. The Global Adolescent Fertility Decline is Counteracted by Increasing Teen Births in Sub‐Saharan Africa.
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Spoorenberg, Thomas, Carlsen, Ellen Øen, Flatø, Martin, Stonawski, Marcin, and Skirbekk, Vegard
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FERTILITY decline , *TEENAGE mothers , *CHILD marriage , *FERTILITY , *CONTRACEPTION - Abstract
There is a lack of understanding of the persistence of elevated teen fertility rates in certain regions and countries, in contrast to the significant decline observed in other regions globally. This report considers fertility trends among 15‐ to 19‐year olds in the period 1950–2020 and explores potential driving factors behind the significant shifts that occurred over this period. The countries where teen fertility remains high are those with fast‐growing populations, primarily located in sub‐Saharan Africa. Countries with higher teen fertility are typically characterized by limited use of modern contraception, lower education levels, and early marriage. Sub‐Saharan Africa has emerged as the world region with the most teen births, increasing its proportion of global teen births from 12 percent in 1950 to 47 percent in 2020, a time during which this region's share of the global adolescent (15–19) population grew from 7.5 percent to 19 percent. By 2035, 67 percent of all teen births globally are projected to occur in this region. Consequently, the future number of births to teenage mothers will to a large extent depend on the development in sub‐Saharan Africa over the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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3. Planned oocyte cryopreservation: a systematic review and meta-regression analysis.
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Hirsch, Ayala, Raccah, Bruria Hirsh, Rotem, Reut, Hyman, Jordana H, Ben-Ami, Ido, and Tsafrir, Avi
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OVUM cryopreservation , *BIRTH rate , *AGE groups , *CHILDBEARING age , *FERTILITY decline - Abstract
BACKGROUND Awareness of the age-related decline in fertility potential has increased the popularity of planned oocyte cryopreservation (POC). However, data regarding outcomes of POC, including rates of women returning to thaw oocytes, as well as pregnancy and live birth rates, are scarce and based mostly on small case series. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE POC was defined as cryopreservation exclusively for prevention of future age-related fertility loss. The primary outcome was live birth rate per patient. The secondary outcomes included the return to thaw rate and laboratory outcomes. A meta-regression analysis examining the association between live birth and age above 40 or below 35 was conducted. SEARCH METHODS We conducted a systematic database search from inception to August 2022. The search included PubMed (MEDLINE) and EMBASE. Our search strategies employed a combination of index terms (Mesh) and free text words to compile relevant concepts. The systematic review and meta-regression were undertaken following registration of systematic review (PROSPERO registration number CRD42022361791) and were reported following guidelines of Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses 2020 (PRISMA 2020). OUTCOMES The database search yielded 3847 records. After the selection process, 10 studies, conducted from 1999 to 2020, were included. Overall, 8750 women underwent POC, with a mean cryopreservation age of 37.2 (±0.8). Of those, 1517 women returned to use their oocytes with a return rate of 11.1% (± 4.7%). The mean age at the time of cryopreservation for women who returned to use their oocytes was 38.1 (±0.4), with an average of 12.6 (±3.6) cryopreserved oocytes per woman. In a meta-analysis, the oocyte survival rate was 78.5% with a 95% CI of 0.74–0.83 (I 2 = 93%). The live birth rate per patient was 28% with a 95% CI of 0.24–0.33 (I 2 = 92%). Overall, 447 live births were reported. In a sub-group analysis, women who underwent cryopreservation at age ≥40 achieved a live birth rate per patient of 19% (95% CI 0.13–0.29, I 2 = 6%), while women aged ≤35 years old or younger had a higher live birth rate per patient of 52% (95% CI 0.41–0.63, I 2 = 7%). WIDER IMPLICATIONS POC emerges as a feasible option for women aiming to improve their chances of conceiving at a later reproductive age. Nonetheless, it must be acknowledged that the overall success rates of POC are limited and that the likelihood of successful live birth declines as the age at cryopreservation rises. With increasing interest in POC, the collation of comprehensive and high-quality data is imperative to clearly define the outcomes for various age groups. REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42022361791. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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4. The impact of widowhood on the quality of life of older adults: the mediating role of intergenerational support from children.
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Zhu, Xiaoting, Ning, Baicheng, Xia, Fang, Wang, Bingmei, Li, Yunqiang, Zhang, Pengqi, Zhang, Xinyue, Yang, Dongsheng, Ji, Guangcheng, and Li, Mingquan
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OLDER men ,OLDER women ,FERTILITY decline ,OLDER people ,QUALITY of life - Abstract
Background: China's transition into an aging society is accelerated by the simultaneous decline in fertility rates and the prolonged life expectancy of older adults. The impact of widowhood, a significant stressor in old age, has emerged as a crucial factor affecting the quality of life among the elderly. Methods: This study is based on data from the 2018 China Health and Aging Tracking Survey. Multiple linear regression models were employed to investigate the influence of widowhood on the quality of life of older adults in China. Additionally, Bootstrap mediation effects were utilized to assess the mediating role of intergenerational support, considering both financial and emotional support from children. Results: The findings indicate a substantial reduction in the quality of life index among older adults following widowhood. Moreover, the impact is more pronounced among older men compared to older women. Rural older adults experience a significant decline in quality of life post-widowhood, while the effect on urban counterparts is not statistically significant. Conclusions: Intergenerational financial support was identified as a partial mediator between widowhood and the quality of life among older adults. This underscores the importance of familial financial assistance in mitigating the adverse effects of widowhood on the well-being of the elderly. These results offer valuable insights into the nuanced impact of widowhood on the quality of life among older adults in China, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions, especially in rural areas. Clinical trial: Not applicable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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5. Quantity or quality: who makes manufacturing stronger?
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Li, Zheng, Miao, Yan, and Liu, Ying
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DEMOGRAPHIC transition , *FERTILITY decline , *LABOR supply , *OLDER people , *PANEL analysis - Abstract
China's rate of aging population and declining fertility are very rapid. The role of demographic transition in the development of the manufacturing industry remains controversial. We construct a heterogeneous DSGE model that includes demographic dividends to simulate and analyze the impact of demographic transition on the expansion and upgrading of manufacturing industry. Besides, we conduct empirical research using China's provincial-level panel data from 2003 to 2020. The results reveal that, first, the recession of the first demographic dividend characterized by a decrease in labor supply has suppressed the expansion of manufacturing scale, but promoted structural upgrading; second, the second demographic dividend can promote the growth of output in various manufacturing industries, especially advanced manufacturing; third, receiving the second demographic dividend can offset the negative effect from recession of the first demographic dividend on manufacturing industry. However, the negative impact currently suffered by China's manufacturing industry cannot be fully compensated for. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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6. Fertility and the oil curse.
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Kim, Dong-Hyeon and Lin, Shu-Chin
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WOMEN'S empowerment ,FERTILITY decline ,NATURAL resources ,LABOR supply ,FERTILITY ,MICROFINANCE - Abstract
The paper empirically investigates whether oil abundance affects fertility in a panel of developing and developed countries for 1970–2020. The exploration sheds light into why poor developing economies rich in natural resources such as Sub-Saharan African countries have stagnated with high fertility. It finds that fertility rises once oil abundance crosses a threshold level, below which fertility drops, controlling for oil volatility and per-capita GDP. The effect operates in part through women empowerment proxied by female's labor supply and education. It is also found that oil volatility raises fertility. Besides, we observe a reversal of fertility decline once income reaches a certain level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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7. Remittances and fertility in Jamaica.
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McFarlane, Adian, Brown, Leanora, and Das, Anupam
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FERTILITY ,REMITTANCES ,FERTILITY decline ,COINTEGRATION - Abstract
While Jamaica's fertility rate has been declining, remittance inflows have been increasing. To elucidate the empirical causal impact of remittances on fertility in Jamaica, we test for cointegration with structural break and by bounds testing using annual data from 1976 to 2019. There are two key findings. First, we find cointegration running from remittances to the fertility rate. Second, we find that after controlling for potentially confounding factors, increases in remittances are associated with a decline in the fertility rate in the long run. Important attendant policy implications arising are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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8. Age-period-cohort analysis of U.S. fertility: a realistic approach.
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Billari, Francesco and Graziani, Rebecca
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FERTILITY ,TIME perspective ,DATABASES ,FERTILITY decline - Abstract
A key question for the explanation of fertility trends in advanced societies is whether, in addition to age, period- rather than cohort-related factors matter. In this paper, we analyze a standard set of age-specific fertility rates – from the Human Fertility Database – on the United States between 1933 and 2015. More specifically, we describe and apply an Age-Period-Cohort (APC) modeling approach that relies on second differences as identifiable parameters. Results of our APC analyses tend to be consistent with an interpretation that gives a greater weight to period effects over shorter time horizons, with a significant presence of smooth cohort effects over the longer term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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9. Barriers and enablers to the implementation of immediate postpartum and post-abortion family planning service integration in primary health care units of Wolaita Zone, Southern Ethiopia: A baseline study for implementation research.
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Meskele, Mengistu, Sadamo, Fekadu Elias, Angore, Banchialem Nega, Dake, Samson Kastro, Mekonnen, Wondwosen, Kebede, Addisalem Titiyos, Adinew, Yohannes Mihretie, Shikur, Bilal, Assegid, Meselech, Firdu, Naod, Seid, Senait, and Seifu, Abiy
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INTEGRATED health care delivery , *FAMILY planning services , *OPEN source software , *PUERPERIUM , *RESEARCH implementation , *FERTILITY decline , *RURAL women - Abstract
Introduction: Evidence indicates that postpartum and post-abortion women accept family planning at a higher rate when offered timely at appropriate sites. Therefore, this study explored barriers and enablers of postpartum and post-abortion family planning utilization in primary health care units of Wolaita Zone, Southern Ethiopia, from June 20 to July 25, 2022. Methods: We used a case study strategy of qualitative research using both the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) and Gender, Youth, and Social Inclusion (GYSI) frameworks was conducted from June to July 2022. We conducted 41 in-depth and key informant interviews and six focus group discussions. We also used Open Code software version 4.02 for coding and further analysis and applied a framework analysis. Results: The analysis of this study identified barriers and enablers of postpartum and post-abortion family planning service uptake in five CFIR domains and four GYSI components. The barriers included misconceptions and sole decision-making by husbands, cultural and religious barriers, and healthcare providers paying less attention to adolescents and husbands, which prevented them from using immediate postpartum and postabortion family planning services. The health facilities were not adequately staffed; there was a shortage and delay of supplies and infrastructure, trained staff turnover, and poor accountability among service providers. The existence of community structure, equal access and legal rights to the service, and having waivered services were enablers for postpartum and post-abortion family planning service uptake. Conclusion and recommendation: The current study identified various barriers and enablers to the uptake of postpartum and post-abortion family planning. Therefore, there is a need for high-impact interventions such as targeting male partners and girls, ensuring infrastructure, supplies, and equipment, building staff capacity, and making decisions jointly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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10. Barriers and facilitators of early postpartum modern contraceptive method uptake in Dessie and Kombolcha City zones, northeast Ethiopia: Conventional content analysis qualitative study.
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Cherie, Niguss, Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera, and Debelew, Gurmesa Tura
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ZONING , *DIGITAL audio , *CONTRACEPTION , *CONTRACEPTIVES , *CONTENT analysis , *CHILDBIRTH , *ABORTION statistics , *FERTILITY decline - Abstract
Background: Despite progress in access to family planning services in many sub-Saharan African countries in recent decades, advances in effective early postpartum contraceptive adoption remain low, and the unmet need for early postpartum contraceptives is high. In Ethiopia, early postpartum modern contraceptive method uptake is still unacceptably low. The barriers/challenges have not yet been sufficiently explored. A deep and detailed understanding of the contextualized barriers and challenges in the adoption of early postpartum contraceptive methods is crucial in developing future locally-appropriate interventions. Objectives: This study aimed to explore barriers/challenges to the uptake of early postpartum modern contraceptive methods after childbirth in Dessie and Kombolcha zones, in northeast Ethiopia. Methods: Aconventional content analysis qualitative study was deployed in Dessie and Kombolcha town zones, northeast Ethiopia using a theoretical purposive sampling technique. A total of 57 study subjects were participated. The sample size was determined using the rule of information saturation through 7 key informant interviews, 6 in-depth interviews, and 5 focused-group discussions with 8–10 participants each. Data were collected using an unstructured interview guide and recorded using a digital audio recorder and field notes. The trustworthiness of the study was assured using different techniques. The collected data were transcribed and translated from native language to English. Atlas-ti version7 software was used to facilitate conventional content qualitative data analysis approach. Open coding, categories, subthemes, and overreaching themes were developed, and a conceptual model of barriers was organized through network analysis. Result: Barriers to uptake of early postpartum modern contraception quoted by study participants and themed were related knowledge, attitude, family-community, health facility, contraceptive method, cultural, religious, fertility desire, gender issues, and misconceptions. The sub-themes of knowledge-related barriers that emerged were lack of awareness of the time to take birth control methods, not knowing the time pregnancy is likely after childbirth, and not being committed to taking contraceptives early enough after childbirth. Moreover, beliefs that modern contraceptives cause breast milk to dry up and perceived low fecundability after childbirth were indicated as attitude barriers. Health facility barriers were lack of reminders and follow-up mechanisms, sporadic service delivery and opening time, long waiting time, and card withdrawal process and providers' approach. Social stigma, child sex preference, and religious restrictions against contraceptive use were community barriers. Conclusion: Generally individual, facility-based, method-related, misconceptions, societal, and cultural barriers were identified as hindrances to the uptake of early postpartum modern contraceptive methods. There is a need for health-seeking behavioral interventions, innovative contraceptive methods, and facility-level interventions to overcome each identified barrier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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11. Is Pakistan's fertility transition stalling?
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Bongaarts, John and Sathar, Zeba
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FERTILITY , *FERTILITY decline , *FAMILY size , *CONTRACEPTION , *SUPPLY & demand - Abstract
This study examines the question as to whether Pakistan's fertility transition is stalling. The paper reviews the trajectories of fertility and its various determinants and compares Pakistan's trends with those of India and Bangladesh. Countries in the South Asia region share features such as cultural similarities (e.g. the low status of women and son preference) and high poverty levels. However, while Bangladesh and India are near replacement fertility today with modern contraceptive prevalence rates well above 50 per cent, Pakistan still has one of the highest fertility and lowest contraceptive prevalence levels in Asia. Our main conclusion is that Pakistan's fertility transition is close to stalling in mid-transition. The key causes of this stall are a high and unchanging desired family size, stalling demand for contraception and relatively low satisfaction of this demand. These are important obstacles to future decline in fertility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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12. Fertility in a Pandemic: Evidence from California.
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Nobles, Jenna, Gemmill, Alison, Hwang, Sungsik, and Torche, Florencia
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FERTILITY decline , *FERTILITY , *VITAL statistics , *ECONOMIC change , *TIME series analysis - Abstract
The COVID‐19 pandemic was accompanied by social and economic changes previously associated with fertility delay and reduction, sparking widespread discussion of a "baby bust" in the United States. We examine fertility trends using restricted vital statistics data from California, a diverse population of 40 million, contributing 12 percent of U.S. births. Using time series models that account for longer‐run fertility trends, we observe modest, short‐term reductions in births from mid‐2020 through early 2021. Birth counts in subsequent months matched or even eased the pace of fertility decline since the 2008 recession and are unlikely a function of the pandemic alone. Responses to the pandemic were heterogeneous. Fertility declined markedly among the foreign‐born population, largely driven by changes in net migration. Among the U.S.‐born population, the short‐term pandemic‐attributable reductions were largest among older, highly educated people, suggesting mechanisms of fertility reduction disparately accessible to those with the most resources. We find no evidence of a strong population fertility response to the pandemic's accompanying employment shock, providing additional evidence of a growing divide between macroeconomic conditions and fertility patterns in the United States. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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13. COVID‐19 Policy Interventions and Fertility Dynamics in the Context of Pre‐Pandemic Welfare Support.
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Plach, Samuel, Aassve, Arnstein, Cavalli, Nicolò, Mencarini, Letizia, and Sanders, Seth
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BIRTH rate , *FERTILITY decline , *PUBLIC spending , *PUBLIC support , *WELFARE state - Abstract
This paper focuses on nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to explain fertility dynamics during the pandemic, while considering countries' institutional context. We argue that containment policies disrupted people's lives and increased their uncertainty more in countries with weak welfare support systems, while health‐related and economic support NPIs mitigated such disruptions much more there, as they were less expected by citizens. We estimate monthly "excess" crude birth rates (CBRs) and find that countries with low public support—Southern Europe, East Asia, and Eastern Europe—experienced larger decreases and less of a rebound in CBRs than countries with histories of high public spending—Western, Central, and Northern Europe. However, in low support countries, NPIs are much more strongly associated with excess CBRs—containment NPIs more negatively and health and economic support NPIs more positively—with the exception of the one‐month lag of containment NPIs, for which the opposite holds. When putting these coefficients into broader perspective, our findings suggest that the actual implementation of all NPIs taken together mitigated fertility declines. This is especially the case for low public support countries, whereas one might have seen a birth decline even in high support countries if the NPIs were not implemented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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14. The Consequences of the COVID‐19 Pandemic for Fertility and Birth Outcomes: Evidence from Spanish Birth Registers.
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Cozzani, Marco, Fallesen, Peter, Passaretta, Giampiero, Härkönen, Juho, and Bernardi, Fabrizio
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LOW birth weight , *FERTILITY decline , *VITAL records (Births, deaths, etc.) , *PREMATURE labor , *FERTILITY - Abstract
We examine the joint consequences of the COVID‐19 pandemic for fertility and birth outcomes by drawing on full population administrative data from Spain. We find a surprising improvement in birth outcomes in November and to a less extent in December 2020 (eight to nine months after the first wave of the pandemic) compared with monthly trends in the 10 previous years (2010–2019). The improvement in birth outcomes was shortly followed by a decline in fertility, which concentrated on first births, births to women without a tertiary degree, and births to young and old mothers, respectively. These findings are consistent with the idea that the pandemic selectively affected conception, which showed up first as an improvement in birth outcomes due to the missing conceptions of frail‐children‐to‐be (preterm and low birth weight) and then as a lowered fertility rate due to the missing conception of at‐term children. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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15. ZnO NPs induce miR-342-5p mediated ferroptosis of spermatocytes through the NF-κB pathway in mice.
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Liu, Guangyu, Lv, Jing, Wang, Yifan, Sun, Kaikai, Gao, Huimin, Li, Yuanyou, Yao, Qichun, Ma, Lizhu, Kochshugulova, Gulzat, and Jiang, Zhongliang
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MALE infertility , *ZINC oxide , *POISONS , *SPERMATOGENESIS , *FEED additives , *NANOPARTICLES , *FERTILITY decline , *GONADS - Abstract
Background: Zinc oxide nanoparticle (ZnO NP) is one of the metal nanomaterials with extensive use in many fields such as feed additive and textile, which is an emerging threat to human health due to widely distributed in the environment. Thus, there is an urgent need to understand the toxic effects associated with ZnO NPs. Although previous studies have found accumulation of ZnO NPs in testis, the molecular mechanism of ZnO NPs dominated a decline in male fertility have not been elucidated. Results: We reported that ZnO NPs exposure caused testicular dysfunction and identified spermatocytes as the primary damaged site induced by ZnO NPs. ZnO NPs led to the dysfunction of spermatocytes, including impaired cell proliferation and mitochondrial damage. In addition, we found that ZnO NPs induced ferroptosis of spermatocytes through the increase of intracellular chelatable iron content and lipid peroxidation level. Moreover, the transcriptome analysis of testis indicated that ZnO NPs weakened the expression of miR-342-5p, which can target Erc1 to block the NF-κB pathway. Eventually, ferroptosis of spermatocytes was ameliorated by suppressing the expression of Erc1. Conclusions: The present study reveals a novel mechanism in that miR-342-5p targeted Erc1 to activate NF-κB signaling pathway is required for ZnO NPs-induced ferroptosis, and provide potential targets for further research on the prevention and treatment of male reproductive disorders related to ZnO NPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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16. The recent decline in period fertility in England and Wales: Differences associated with family background and intergenerational educational mobility.
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Ermisch, John
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WOMEN'S education , *SOCIAL mobility , *FERTILITY decline , *EDUCATIONAL mobility , *SOCIAL background , *INTERGENERATIONAL mobility - Abstract
During 2010–20, period fertility in England and Wales fell to its lowest recorded level. The aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the decline in period fertility in two dimensions: differentials by the education of a woman's parents (family background) and by a woman's education in relation to that of her parents (intergenerational educational mobility). The analysis finds a substantial decline in fertility in each education group, whether defined by a woman's parents' education alone or by a woman's own education relative to her parents' education. Considering parents' and women's own education together helps differentiate fertility further than analysing either generation's education in isolation. Using these educational mobility groups more clearly shows a narrowing of TFR differentials over the decade, but timing differences persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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17. Causal association between family health, perceived relationship quality components, and attitudes toward childbearing in Iranian women: A WHO model analysis.
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Taheri, Atefeh, Saeieh, Sara Esmaelzadeh, Qorbani, Mostafa, Mohamadi, Farima, Mahmoodi, Danial, and Mahmoodi, Zohreh
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MARRIAGE , *RELATIONSHIP quality , *IRANIANS , *FAMILY health , *FAMILY relations , *FERTILITY decline - Abstract
Background: Given the unprecedented global decline in fertility as a major demographic development in recent years, the present study was conducted to determine Causal association Between Family Health, Perceived Relationship Quality Components, and Attitudes toward Childbearing in Iranian Women: A WHO Model Analysis Methods: In 2023, this descriptive study recruited 400 married women presenting to selected comprehensive health centers affiliated to Alborz University of Medical Sciences, Karaj, Iran. The data were collected through multistage stratified cluster sampling and using a socioeconomic status questionnaire (Ghodratnama), the Perceived Relationship Quality Components (PRQC) scale, the family‐of‐origin scale (FOS), the attitudes toward fertility and childbearing scale (AFCS) and a demographic checklist were analyzed in SPSS 25 and LISREL 8.8. Results: According to the path analysis, family health exerted the most significant and positive causal effect on attitudes to childbearing directly through one path (B = 0.334) and relationship quality (B = 0.698) and duration of married life (B = 0.387) both directly and indirectly. The number of children (B = –0.057), however, exerted the most significant and negative causal effect on attitudes to childbearing through both paths. Conclusions: The present findings suggested the significant effects of family health and relationship quality on attitudes toward childbearing. It is therefore recommended that these variables be screened in comprehensive health centers, the associated limitations and problems be identified and appropriate training and counseling solutions be provided by health specialists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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18. Population decline: where demography, social science, and biology intersect.
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Aitken, Robert John
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DEMOGRAPHIC change ,DEMOGRAPHY ,FERTILITY decline ,BIOLOGY ,YOUNG adults - Abstract
Since the early 1960s, the world has witnessed the spectacular collapse of human fertility. As a result of this phenomenon, several countries are already seeing their population numbers fall and more will follow in the coming decades. The causes of this fertility decline involve a complex interplay of socio-economic, environmental, and biological factors that have converged to constrain fertility in posterity's wake. Since large numbers of offspring are no longer needed to compensate for high infant mortality in contemporary society, couples have opted to have small families in a quality-over-quantity investment in their progeny's future. Simultaneously, increases in female education, the enhanced participation of women in the paid workforce, and a resultant delay in childbearing has placed limits on achievable family size. Progressive urbanization, the improved availability of contraceptives, and the socio-economic pressures experienced by young adults in ageing societies are also contributing to fertility's demise. These factors, together with the individualism that pervades modern society and the increasing social acceptability of voluntary childlessness, have firmly established a low fertility ethos in most post-transition countries. Since none of these forces are about to relent, it looks as if extremely low fertility might be with us for some time to come. This may have long-term consequences. The lack of selection pressure on high fertility genotypes, the ability of ART to retain poor fertility genotypes within the population, and sustained exposure to reproductive toxicants in modern industrialized environments may all contrive to leave a permanent mark on the fecundity of our species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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19. N-point modified exponential model for household projections in Korea using multi-point register-based census data.
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Saebom Jeon and Tae Yeon Kwon
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FERTILITY decline ,HOUSING ,CENSUS ,SOCIAL change ,HOUSEHOLDS ,OLDER people - Abstract
Accurate household projections are essential for sectors such as housing supply and tax policy planning, given the rapid social changes like declining birthrates, an aging population, and a rise in single-person households that impact household size and type. Korea introduced its first register-based census in 2015, transitioning from fiveyear general survey-based approach to an annual administrative data-based census. This change in census allows for more frequent and effective capturing the rapid demographic shifts and trends. However, this change in census has caused challenges in future projection by the existing household projection model due to the rapid dynamics. This paper proposes a new household projection method, the N-point Modified Exponential Model (MEM), that accurately reflects register-based census data and mitigates the impact of rapid demographic changes, in three types: the Weighted N-point MEM, the Regression-based N-point MEM, and the Rolling Weighted N+point MEM. Using register-based census data from 2016 to 2020 to forecast household headship rates by age, household size, and household type to 2051, the N-point modified exponential model outperformed the existing model in both long- and short-term forecast accuracy, suggesting its suitability as a future household projection model for Korea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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20. Targeting mitochondria for ovarian aging: new insights into mechanisms and therapeutic potential.
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Zi-Han Wang, Zhen-Jing Wang, Huai-Chao Liu, Chen-Yu Wang, Yu-Qi Wang, Yang Yue, Chen Zhao, Guoyun Wang, and Ji-Peng Wan
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MITOCHONDRIA ,CHINESE medicine ,FERTILITY decline ,OVARIAN follicle ,MITOCHONDRIAL membranes ,REPRODUCTIVE health - Abstract
Ovarian aging is a complex process characterized by a decline in oocyte quantity and quality, directly impacting fertility and overall well-being. Recent researches have identified mitochondria as pivotal players in the aging of ovaries, influencing various hallmarks and pathways governing this intricate process. In this review, we discuss the multifaceted role of mitochondria in determining ovarian fate, and outline the pivotalmechanisms through whichmitochondria contribute to ovarian aging. Specifically, we emphasize the potential of targeting mitochondrial dysfunction through innovative therapeutic approaches, including antioxidants, metabolic improvement, biogenesis promotion, mitophagy enhancement, mitochondrial transfer, and traditional Chinese medicine. These strategies hold promise as effective means to mitigate age-related fertility decline and preserve ovarian health. Drawing insights from advanced researches in the field, this review provides a deeper understanding of the intricate interplay between mitochondrial function and ovarian aging, offering valuable perspectives for the development of novel therapeutic interventions aimed at preserving fertility and enhancing overall reproductive health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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21. Survey and analysis on fertility status of female employees aged 22-35 years by industries
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Changyan YU, Jiarui XIN, Ming XU, Zhenxia KOU, Wenlan YU, Meibian ZHANG, and Xuefei LI
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time to pregnancy ,female worker ,fertility decline ,cox proportional hazards regression ,Medicine (General) ,R5-920 ,Toxicology. Poisons ,RA1190-1270 - Abstract
BackgroundAs the population ages, there has been a growing focus on the decline in fertility. Research has identified age and fertility history as the primary influencing factors. Nevertheless, there is a deficiency in fundamental data regarding the fertility status among different industries. ObjectiveTo investigate the fertility status and influencing factors among female workers aged 22-35 years in different industries. MethodsFrom July 2020 to February 2021, a cross-sectional survey was conducted using a staged sampling approach. This survey specifically targeted 22-35-year-old married female workers with a history of pregnancy in industries such as education, healthcare, finance, and telecommunications, totaling 22903 participants. The survey encompassed industry, demographic characteristics, pregnancy history, time to pregnancy (TTP), and other influencing factors. The influencing factors of decline in fertility were identified by chi-square test and Cox proportional hazards regression. Subsequent industry-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to compared fertility decline patterns across a spectrum of industries after selected influencing factors were adjusted. ResultsAmong the 22903 respondents, 19194 valid questionnaires were collected, with a valid recovery rate of 83.8%. The cumulative pregnancy rates (CRP) of 1-6 months and 1-12 months for the 22-35-year-old female workers were 67.23% and 91.33% respectively. The multivariate analysis showed that region, age, education level, personal annual income, housework time, coping style, gravidity, parity, and spontaneous abortion were influencing factors of fertility decline (P
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- 2024
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22. Unemployment, divorce, and longevity: the major factors of the fertility upward evolution in Tunisia, during 1998-2018: a dynamic panel data analysis.
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Frini, Olfa
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FERTILITY decline , *FERTILITY , *CONTRACEPTION , *FAMILY planning services , *GENERALIZED method of moments , *DATA analysis - Abstract
After a long decline, fertility in Tunisia, as in some Arab countries like Algeria and Egypt, recorded an unexpected increasing trend over the 2000 – 2018 period. To account for such demographic change, this paper re-examined the behavior of the main fertility decline factors tested by the previous empirical studies (such as education, income, mortality, and contraceptive use) to check whether they have changed in favor of an upward fertility evolution. Deepening the analysis, it introduced three new socio-economic factors that are likely to favor fertility increase: divorce, unemployment, and longevity. The dynamic one-step generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation on a cylindrical data panel from 1998 to 2018 for eight Tunisian regions confirmed the positive effect of these new variables. Additionally, the education-fertility interaction was found to be no longer obvious. The family planning program appeared to no longer play its role in limiting fertility. The income effect overcame the substitution effect in favor of a fertility increase. The observed increasing fertility trend in Tunisia seems to be more explained by the dominance of some sociocultural factors. Thus, policymakers should seek to better focus on the family institution's behavior to sustain fertility decline and improve the efficiency of its family planning program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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23. Population anxieties in constituting Nordic welfare state futures: affective biopolitics in the age of environmental crises.
- Author
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Homanen, Riikka and Meskus, Mianna
- Subjects
- *
WELFARE state , *DEMOGRAPHY , *CLIMATE change , *POPULATION policy , *CARBON emissions , *CRISIS management , *CRISIS communication , *FERTILITY decline - Abstract
Declining fertility rates across world have generated deep concern among different stakeholders. In 2019, Finland's fertility rate was at an 'ultra-low' 1.35 children per woman. Investigating the affective work of policymaking on population issues—'population anxieties'—in a Nordic welfare state, this article constructs a genealogy of the affective biopolitics of populations in Finland. Drawing from a corpus of historical and recent materials, the article explores how population policy has invited and harnessed emotional orientation towards certain collective futures, while being disclosive of others. The analysis focuses on the issues of 'fertility decline' and 'the environment', and the reconfigurations of the population–environment nexus over the past decades. The article argues that persistent concerns about depopulation through ultra-low fertility underlie the affective stakes of Nordic biopolitics. Meanwhile, there is evident resistance to connecting population policy concerns with the climate crisis in the Nordic context. While in the so-called developing countries, demographic and ecological futures are seen mutually constitutive, the connection is not perceived as relevant to the Finnish welfare state. This is so despite Finland belonging to the affluent part of the world that is the largest producer of carbon dioxide emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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- View/download PDF
24. Fertility, electricity and television: is there a link? Evidence from Pakistan, 1990–2018.
- Author
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Tasciotti, Luca, Sulehria, Farooq, and Wagner, Natascha
- Subjects
- *
FERTILITY decline , *TELEVISION commercials , *DEMOGRAPHIC surveys , *TELEVISION broadcasting , *FERTILITY - Abstract
In 1960s Pakistan, every woman was giving birth to more than 6 children on average. In 2021, Pakistan still has the second-highest fertility rate in South Asia with every woman giving birth to 3.4 children on average. This paper uses four waves of Demographic and Health Survey data to empirically analyze trends in fertility in Pakistan between 1990 and 2018; accounting for wealth, education and locational differences, this paper looks at three additional pathways for reducing fertility: (i) electrification, (ii) access to TV and (iii) family planning commercials broadcast on television. Results show that electricity does not reduce fertility whereas access to television has a significant effect in reducing fertility rates. The content and evolution of Pakistani soap-operas are also discussed, and it is argued that the role models, the types of households and the messages conveyed by these soap-operas may represent strong pathways for the fertility decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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25. Masculinity, Citizenship, and Demography: the Rise of Populism.
- Author
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Turner, Bryan S.
- Subjects
- *
DEMOGRAPHY , *FERTILITY decline , *MASCULINITY , *CITIZENSHIP , *FOREIGN workers , *SERVICE industries - Abstract
The article examines the rise of contemporary populist movements in Europe and North America. These movements are driven primarily by working-class men who feel marginalized by developments in employment, work conditions, family life, and, in particular, by gender politics and the modern status of women. The growth of the service sector has created new opportunities for women. Demography, especially the decline in the fertility rate, has been neglected in sociological theories of the modern development of radical populism. With a declining and ageing population, the labor market depends increasingly on immigrant workers. These circumstances—feminism and migration—fuel the frustration of marginalized men who form the basis of radical populism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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- View/download PDF
26. Missions, fertility transition, and the reversal of fortunes: evidence from border discontinuities in the emirates of Nigeria.
- Author
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Okoye, Dozie and Pongou, Roland
- Subjects
FERTILITY ,DEMOGRAPHIC transition ,FERTILITY decline ,CHRISTIAN missionaries ,TECHNOLOGICAL innovations - Abstract
What are the origins of differences in the pace of the demographic transition across African societies, and how do these differences affect economic development? We address this question by analyzing the average and heterogeneous effects of colonial-era Christian missionary activity on human capital accumulation, fertility, and wealth in Nigeria. Our identification strategy exploits discontinuities in mission stations around the borders of some Emirates of Northern Nigeria where missions were restricted from operating by the colonial administration. We find that areas with greater historical missionary activity have higher levels of schooling, lower fertility, and higher household wealth today. The long-run effect of missions is not found in areas with early access to government schools, and is larger for population subgroups—women and Muslims—that have historically suffered disadvantages in access to education. Importantly, we show that the restriction of missions in some Emirates of Northern Nigeria has led to a reversal of fortunes, wherein areas that were more institutionally developed in the precolonial period are relatively poorer today as a result of a slower pace of the demographic transition. The findings support the predictions of the unified theory of economic growth, whereby technological advancement leads to greater demand for education, triggering a fertility decline and resulting in higher incomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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27. IS INCREASING AGE AT MARRIAGE REALLY EFFECTIVE IN REDUCING COMPLETED FERTILITY? EVIDENCE FROM THE MULTINOMIAL ANALYSIS OF THE FIFTH ROUND OF THE NATIONAL FAMILY HEALTH SURVEY IN INDIA (2019-21).
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Singh, Brijesh P., Singh, Tanya, and Singh, Alok Kumar
- Subjects
MARRIAGE age ,LOGISTIC regression analysis ,FERTILITY decline ,MARRIED women ,BIVARIATE analysis - Abstract
In accordance with our information, the age at first marriage of women is gradually increasing due to the increase in the level of education, a trend towards employment, and the reduction of social taboos, etc. On the basis of the fifth round of the National Family Health Survey (2019-21) conducted in India, this study examines whether women's completed fertility is affected by their age at marriage in the presence of all other socioeconomic and demographic factors. The study includes a sample of 44,479 married women over the age of 45 years at the time of the NFHS-5 survey. The trend of completed fertility was examined using descriptive statistics. Bivariate analysis and multinomial logistic regression analysis were employed to show statistical significance. It was found that completed fertility declines gradually with increasing time at all ages at marriage (from NFHS-II to NFHS-V) and with increasing age at marriage in all four rounds of NFHS, completed fertility is reduced. Women who were 35 years and older at the time of marriage [ARRR = 2.619, 95% CI = 2.300, 2.983], who belonged to Hinduism [ARRR = 1.989, 95 % CI = 1.730, 2.287], who belonged to other castes [ARRR = 2.417, 95% CI = 2.120, 2.755], who had higher levels of education [ARRR = 21.424, 95% CI = 10.581, 43.378], who were exposed to mass media [ARRR = 1.266, 95% CI = 1.158, 1.384], who were living in urban areas [ARRR = 1.266, 95% CI = 1.008, 1.284], and who belonged to the southern region [ARRR = 6.208, 95% CI = 4.923, 7.828] were more likely to have less completed fertility. This study showed that the likelihood of less completed fertility is strongly influenced by the factor of age at marriage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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28. Ovarian aging: energy metabolism of oocytes.
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Bao, Shenglan, Yin, Tailang, and Liu, Su
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- *
ENERGY metabolism , *OVARIAN reserve , *OVUM , *CHILDBIRTH , *AGING , *FERTILITY decline , *OVARIAN follicle , *PURINERGIC receptors - Abstract
In women who are getting older, the quantity and quality of their follicles or oocytes and decline. This is characterized by decreased ovarian reserve function (DOR), fewer remaining oocytes, and lower quality oocytes. As more women choose to delay childbirth, the decline in fertility associated with age has become a significant concern for modern women. The decline in oocyte quality is a key indicator of ovarian aging. Many studies suggest that age-related changes in oocyte energy metabolism may impact oocyte quality. Changes in oocyte energy metabolism affect adenosine 5'-triphosphate (ATP) production, but how related products and proteins influence oocyte quality remains largely unknown. This review focuses on oocyte metabolism in age-related ovarian aging and its potential impact on oocyte quality, as well as therapeutic strategies that may partially influence oocyte metabolism. This research aims to enhance our understanding of age-related changes in oocyte energy metabolism, and the identification of biomarkers and treatment methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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29. Alkali and alkaline earth elements in follicular fluid and the likelihood of diminished ovarian reserve in reproductive-aged women: a case‒control study.
- Author
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Tian, Tian, Li, Qin, Liu, Fang, Jiang, Huahua, Yang, Rui, Zhao, Yue, Kong, Fei, Wang, Yuanyuan, Long, Xiaoyu, and Qiao, Jie
- Subjects
- *
OVARIAN reserve , *CHILDBEARING age , *ALKALINE earth metals , *CASE-control method , *FERTILITY decline , *ALKALIES - Abstract
Background: Imbalances in alkali elements (AEs) and alkaline earth elements (AEEs) cause reproductive disorders. However, it remains unclear whether AEs/AEEs in follicular fluid have a relationship with the serious reproductive disorder known as diminished ovarian reserve (DOR). Methods: A nested case‒control study was carried out in China. Follicular fluid samples from 154 DOR patients and 154 controls were collected and assessed for nine AEs/AEE levels. Both the mixed and single effects of the elements on DOR were estimated with a Bayesian kernel machine (BKMR) and logistic regressions. Results: The DOR group had higher median concentrations of Li, Na, and K in follicular fluid (all P values < 0.05). The logistic regression showed that compared with their lowest tertile, the high tertiles of K [OR:2.45 (1.67–4.43)], Li [OR: 1.89 (1.06–3.42)], and Cs [OR: 1.97 (1.10–3.54)] were significantly associated with the odds of DOR. The BKMR model reported that the DOR likelihood increased linearly across the 25th through 75th percentiles of the nine-AE/AEE mixture, while the AE group contributed more to the overall effect. Conclusion: This study revealed an association in which the likelihood of DOR increased with higher overall concentrations of AE/AEEs in follicular fluid. Among the nine detected elements, K, Li, and Cs exhibited significant individual associations with DOR. We provide new clues for the environmental factors on female fertility decline. Trial registration: Retrospectively registered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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- View/download PDF
30. Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
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- *
GLOBAL burden of disease , *FERTILITY , *KRIGING , *AGE groups , *FERTILITY decline - Abstract
Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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31. Narratives of relationality and time in fertility preservation vlogs.
- Author
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Shaw, Rhonda M. and Ker, Alex
- Subjects
- *
FERTILITY preservation , *VIDEO blogs , *GENDER transition , *DEMOGRAPHIC transition , *FERTILITY decline , *RELATIONSHIP status - Abstract
Fertility preservation incorporates relational and temporal dynamics that have both experimental and conservative dimensions in people's thinking about their reproductive futures, parenthood, and family building. In this article, we discuss video blog (vlog) narratives of people who have publicly documented their experience of preserving their gametes (eggs or sperm). The aim of the study is to examine how people, who are experiencing the prospect of fertility decline or disruption, frame their decision-making about gamete preservation and what this means for their future family building. As such, we organise the data around three demographic groups according to health, career and relationship status, and gender transition. To analyse the vlogs we use composite narratives, a method whereby researchers synthesise data to construct stories based on people's lived experiences, without attributing events or details to particular people. Using this method, we draw on two conceptual tools from the sociology of personal life; relationality and temporal scripts, to highlight how vloggers discuss fertility preservation in relation to time and their experiences to real and imagined others, in making decisions about their reproductive futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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32. The Rise in Women's Labor-Force Participation in Mexico—Supply vs. Demand Factors.
- Author
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Bhalotra, Sonia and Fernández, Manuel
- Subjects
SUPPLY & demand ,DECOMPOSITION method ,PARTICIPATION ,FERTILITY decline ,TECHNOLOGICAL innovations ,HOUSEKEEPING - Abstract
This study estimates the relative importance of alternative supply and demand mechanisms in explaining the rise of female labor-force participation (FLFP) over the last 55 years in Mexico. The growth of FLFP in Mexico between 1960 and 2015 followed an S-shaped, with a considerable acceleration during the 1990s. Using descriptive decomposition methods and a shift-share design, the study shows that, put together, supply and demand factors can account for most of the rise of FLFP over the entire period, led by increases in women's education, declining fertility, and shifts in the occupational structure of the workforce. However, there is unexplained variation in the 1990s, when FLFP spiked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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33. LANDMARK EMANCIPATION OF TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE IN PRE-WORLD WAR II CZECHOSLOVAKIA.
- Author
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HOLEČEK, VÍT
- Subjects
HISTORY of science ,SCIENTIFIC literature ,SCIENTIFIC knowledge ,SCIENCE conferences ,GASOLINE ,RADIO engineering ,RURAL youth ,FERTILITY decline - Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
34. Determining the impact of the 2004 Australian Baby Bonus on fertility rates using a synthetic control analysis.
- Author
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Reich, Genevieve
- Subjects
FERTILITY ,FERTILITY decline ,DEVELOPED countries ,INFANTS ,ECONOMIC indicators - Abstract
The longstanding issue of declining fertility in developed nations motivates a revaluation of the effectiveness of fertility‐targeted policies. This thesis focuses on the 2004 Australian Baby Bonus, a past pronatalist incentive offering a lump sum financial transfer for every child born after 1 July 2004. We employ the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual scenario for Australia in the absence of the policy's introduction. Using aggregate country‐level data from the World Bank World Indicator's Database from 1998 to 2012, we carefully select suitable Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries as control units and economic indicators to include as covariates. Our primary specification reveals a 6.82% increase in total fertility between 2005 and 2012, induced by the ABB. Robustness tests, including various model specifications, consistently confirm a positive fertility effect. This comparative case study provides a comprehensive analysis of the ABB's impact, emphasising the significance of methodological choices in assessing fertility‐related policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
35. Selected Fertility and Racial Inequality.
- Author
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Thompson, Owen
- Subjects
RACIAL inequality ,FERTILITY ,FERTILITY decline ,AFRICAN American women ,BLACK children - Abstract
Racial inequality can be affected by changes in race-specific fertility patterns that influence the composition of births, in addition to post-birth factors like schools and labor markets that have been the focus of most prior research. This paper documents a large decline in the fertility of southern African American women after 1964 and argues that these fertility patterns likely led to substantial reductions in racial inequality in the next generation through a selection effect. I first show that the Black–white difference in the general fertility rate fell by approximately 40 percent between 1964 and 1970 among southern women, with no change in racial fertility differences in the North over this period. I also show that these fertility declines were much stronger among socioeconomically disadvantaged southern Black women, for instance, those with eight or fewer years of education and with four or more existing children, which led southern Black children born after 1964 to come from systematically smaller and more educated families. I then directly estimate the association between racial fertility differences and racial differences in the education and earnings of the next generation in a two-way fixed effects framework and find that selective fertility declines were conditionally associated with a reduction in the Black–white education gap of approximately 0.15 years (22 percent) and a reduction in the Black–white earnings gap of approximately six log points (16 percent). These patterns suggest that a substantial share of the Black socioeconomic progress of the 1960s and 1970s was due to selective fertility declines among less advantaged African American women in the South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
36. Understanding the interactions of genotype with environment and management (G×E×M) to maize productivity in Conservation Agriculture systems of Malawi.
- Author
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Mhlanga, Blessing, Gama, Mphatso, Museka, Richard, and Thierfelder, Christian
- Subjects
- *
AGRICULTURAL conservation , *GENOTYPE-environment interaction , *CORN , *PIGEON pea , *COWPEA , *FERTILITY decline , *FARMERS - Abstract
Climatic variability and soil fertility decline present a fundamental challenge for smallholder farmers to determine the optimum management practices in the production of maize. Optimizing genotype (G) and management (M) of maize under different environmental conditions (E) and their interactions are essential for enhancing maize productivity in the smallholder sector of Malawi where maize is the main staple food. Here, we evaluated over seven seasons, the performance of four commercial maize genotypes [including hybrids and one open pollinated variety (OPV)] managed under different Conservation Agriculture (CA) and conventional practices (CP) across on-farm communities of central and southern Malawi. Our results revealed significant G×E and E×M interactions and showed that hybrids such as DKC 80–53 and PAN 53 outyielded the other hybrid and the OPV in most of the environments while the OPV ZM523 had greater yields in environments with above-average rainfall and shorter in-season dry spells. These environments received a maximum of 1250 mm to 1500 mm of rainfall and yet the long-term averages were 855 mm and 1248 mm, respectively. Despite yielding lower, the OPV ZM523 also exhibited higher yield stability across environments compared to the hybrid MH 30, possibly due to its resilience to drought, heat stress, and low soil fertility conditions which are often prevalent in the target communities. Conservation Agriculture-based practices outyielded CP across the genotypes and environments. However, amongst the CA-based systems, intercropping of maize with pigeonpea [Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp] and cowpea (Vigna unguiculata Walp.) performed less than monocropping maize and then rotating it with a legume probably due to competition for moisture between the main and the companion crops in the intercrop. The key findings of this study suggest the need to optimize varietal and management options for particular environments to maximize maize productivity in Malawi. This means that smallholder farmers in Malawi should adopt hybrids and CA-based systems for enhanced yields but could also consider OPVs where the climate is highly variable. Further rigorous analysis that includes more abiotic stress factors is recommended for a better understanding of yield response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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37. A reassessment of trends and rural–urban/regional differences in the total fertility rate in China, 2000–2020: analyses of the 2020 national census data.
- Author
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Li, Long, Jin, Guangzhao, Lai, Xiaozhen, Jing, Rize, and Zhu, He
- Subjects
- *
RURAL children , *CENSUS , *FERTILITY decline , *FERTILITY , *RURAL-urban differences , *HUMAN fertility ,POPULATION of China - Abstract
The decline in the total fertility rate (TFR) is a key driver of population change and has important implications for population health and social development. However, China's TFR has been a considerable controversy due to a lack of high-quality data. Therefore, this study used the 2020 national population census of China (NPCC) data and reverse survival method to reassess temporal trends in the TFRs and to reexamine rural–urban differences and regional variations in TFRs from 2000 to 2020 in China. Overall, there were significant gaps between the estimated and reported TFRs before 2020, and the estimated TFRs based on the 2020 NPCC data remained higher than the reported TFRs from government statistics. Although TFRs rebounded shortly in the years after the two-child policy, they have shown a wavelike decline since 2010. Additionally, the estimated TFRs fluctuated below 1.5 children per woman in urban areas compared to above 1.8 in rural areas, but the rural–urban differences continued to decrease. Regarding geographic regional variations, the estimated TFRs in all regions displayed a declining trend during 2010–2020, especially in rural areas. Large decreases of over 25% in TFRs occurred in the north, east, central, and northwest regions. In addition to changing the birth policy, the government and society should adopt comprehensive strategies, including reducing the costs of marriage, childbearing, and child education, as well as promoting work-family balance, to encourage and increase fertility levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
38. Long-term population projections: Scenarios of low or rebounding fertility.
- Author
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Spears, Dean, Vyas, Sangita, Weston, Gage, and Geruso, Michael
- Subjects
- *
POPULATION forecasting , *FERTILITY , *TWENTY-first century , *FERTILITY decline , *HUMAN fertility - Abstract
The size of the human population is projected to peak in the 21st century. But quantitative projections past 2100 are rare, and none quantify the possibility of a rebound from low fertility to replacement-level fertility. Moreover, the most recent long-term deterministic projections were published a decade ago; since then there has been further global fertility decline. Here we provide updated long-term cohort-component population projections and extend the set of scenarios in the literature to include scenarios in which future fertility (a) stays below replacement or (b) recovers and increases. We also characterize old-age dependency ratios. We show that any stable, long-run size of the world population would persistently depend on when an increase towards replacement fertility begins. Without such an increase, the 400-year span when more than 2 billion people were alive would be a brief spike in history. Indeed, four-fifths of all births—past, present, and future—would have already happened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
39. Differential expression of follicular fluid exosomal microRNA in women with diminished ovarian reserve.
- Author
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Xie, Ying, Chen, Juan, Liu, Kailu, Huang, Jingyu, Zeng, Yaqiong, Gao, Mengya, Qian, Yu, Liu, Li, Tan, Yong, and Nie, Xiaowei
- Subjects
- *
OVARIAN reserve , *EXOSOMES , *CYTOSKELETON , *GRANULOSA cells , *PHOSPHATIDYLINOSITOL 3-kinases , *FERTILITY decline - Abstract
Purpose: Decreased ovarian reserve function is mainly characterized by female endocrine disorders and fertility decline. Follicular fluid (FF) exosomal microRNAs (miRNAs) have been shown to regulate the function of granulosa cells (GCs). The present study explored differentially expressed miRNAs (DEmiRNAs) in patients with diminished ovarian reserve (DOR). Methods: FF was collected from 12 DOR patients and 12 healthy controls. DEmiRNAs between the two groups were identified and analyzed using high-throughput sequencing technology and validated by real-time quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR). Results: A total of 592 DEmiRNAs were identified using high-throughput miRNA sequencing, of which 213 were significantly upregulated and 379 were significantly downregulated. The sequencing results were further validated by RT-qPCR. These DEmiRNA target genes were mainly involved in the cancer pathway, phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K)/protein kinase B (AKT) signaling pathway, regulation of actin cytoskeleton signaling pathway, and biological processes related to protein binding, nucleoplasm, cytoplasm, and cell membrane. Conclusion: FF exosomal miRNAs are significantly differentially expressed in DOR patients versus non-DOR patients, underscoring their crucial role in regulating the pathogenesis of DOR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
40. Epigallocatechin‐3‐gallate improves the quality of maternally aged oocytes.
- Author
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Zhang, HongHui, Su, Wei, Zhao, RuSong, Li, Mei, Zhao, ShiGang, Chen, Zi‐Jiang, and Zhao, Han
- Subjects
- *
EPIGALLOCATECHIN gallate , *OVUM , *FERTILITY decline , *SLEEP spindles , *OXIDATIVE stress , *F-actin , *ANEUPLOIDY , *MATERNAL age - Abstract
The decline in female fertility as age advances is intricately linked to the diminished developmental potential of oocytes. Despite this challenge, the strategies available to enhance the quality of aged oocytes remain limited. Epigallocatechin‐3‐gallate (EGCG), characterised by its anti‐inflammatory, antioxidant and tissue protective properties, holds promise as a candidate for improving the quality of maternally aged oocytes. In this study, we explored the precise impact and underlying mechanisms of EGCG on aged oocytes. EGCG exhibited the capacity to enhance the quality of aged oocytes both in vitro and in vivo. Specifically, the application of EGCG in vitro resulted in noteworthy improvements, including an increased rate of first polar body extrusion, enhanced mitochondrial function, refined spindle morphology and a reduction in oxidative stress. These beneficial effects were further validated by the improved fertility observed among aged mice. In addition, our findings propose that EGCG might augment the expression of Arf6. This augmentation, in turn, contributes to the assembly of spindle‐associated F‐actin, which can contribute to mitigate the aneuploidy induced by the disruption of spindle F‐actin within aged oocytes. This work thus contributes not only to understanding the role of EGCG in bolstering oocyte health, but also underscores its potential as a therapeutic intervention to address fertility challenges associated with advanced age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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41. انخفاض الخصوبة لدى الكويتيين والعوامل ال...
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فاطمة جاسم المذن
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- 2024
42. Pricing the Biological Clock: The Marriage Market Costs of Aging to Women.
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Low, Corinne
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BIOLOGICAL rhythms ,MARKETING costs ,FERTILITY decline ,PRICES ,AGING - Abstract
This paper quantifies the causal negative impact of age on women's marriage market appeal using an experiment where real online daters rate hypothetical profiles with randomly assigned ages. Truthfulness is incentivized through the experiment's compensation: participants receive professional dating advice customized according to their ratings. The experiment shows that for every year a woman ages, she must earn $7,000 more annually to remain equally attractive to potential partners. This preference appears driven by women's asymmetric fertility decline with age, as it is present only for men without children and who have accurate knowledge of the age-fertility trade-off. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
- Full Text
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43. The Formal Demography of Peak Population.
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Goldstein, Joshua R. and Cassidy, Thomas
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FERTILITY ,EMIGRATION & immigration ,CHILDBEARING age ,MATHEMATICS ,POPULATION density ,LIFE expectancy ,BIRTH rate ,CONCEPTUAL structures ,DEMOGRAPHY ,LONGEVITY ,CHILDBIRTH - Abstract
When will the human population peak? In this article, we build on classical results by Ansley Coale, who showed that when fertility declines steadily, births reach their maximum before fertility reaches replacement level, and the decline in total population size does not occur until several decades after fertility has reached that level. We extend Coale's results by modeling longevity increases, net immigration, and a slowdown in fertility decline that resembles current projections. With these extensions, our models predict a typical lag between replacement-level fertility and population decline of about 35 to 40 years, consistent with projections by the United Nations and about 15 years longer than the lag predicted by Coale. Our analysis helps reveal underlying factors in the timing of peak population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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44. Birth cohort changes in fertility ideals: evidence from repeated cross-sectional surveys in Finland.
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Golovina, Kateryna, Nitsche, Natalie, Berg, Venla, Miettinen, Anneli, Rotkirch, Anna, and Jokela, Markus
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FERTILITY decline ,CHILDBIRTH ,GENDER differences (Sociology) ,SOCIOECONOMIC factors ,SOCIAL change - Abstract
Fertility has declined in developed countries but whether there is a similar pattern in the number of children individuals wish to have (henceforth an ideal number of children) remains unclear. Using repeated cross-sectional survey data from the Finnish Family Barometers, we examine birth cohort changes in the ideal number of children among men and women from five birth cohorts (1970–1974, 1975–1979, 1980–1984, 1985–1989, and 1990–1994). We also investigate whether associations between socioeconomic factors and the ideal number of children differ across birth cohorts, and whether there are any gender differences in these associations. We find that the ideal number of children is lower among more recent than earlier birth cohorts and that this shift is driven by substantially higher child-free ideals among recent cohorts. While the ideal number of children among men and women is associated with socioeconomic factors, birth cohort differences remain significant after controlling for these characteristics. These findings suggest that large birth cohort differences in child-free ideals are not due to the individual socioeconomic circumstances of more recent birth cohorts. Rather, it appears that the childbearing attitudes of Finns have changed and may have contributed to the recent fertility decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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45. When mothers do it all: gender-role norms, women's employment, and fertility intentions in post-industrial societies.
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Han, Sinn Won, Gowen, Ohjae, and Brinton, Mary C
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WOMEN employees ,GENDER role ,FERTILITY decline ,SOCIAL norms ,WORKING mothers - Abstract
Post-industrial countries with high rates of female labour force participation have generally had low fertility rates, but recent studies demonstrate that this is no longer the case. This has generated increased attention to how greater gender equality in the private sphere of the household may contribute to a positive relationship between women's employment rates and fertility. Building on recent scholarship demonstrating the multidimensionality of gender-role attitudes, we argue that conversely, the prevalence of a gender-role ideology that supports women's employment but places greater priority on their role as caregivers may depress the higher-order fertility intentions of working mothers. Using data from 25 European countries, we find that this type of gender-role ideology (egalitarian familism) moderates the relationship between mothers' full-time employment and their intention to have a second child. This holds even after accounting for key features of the policy environment that are likely to mitigate work–family conflict. The analysis suggests that conflicting normative expectations for women's work and family roles tend to dampen working mothers' second-order fertility intentions, independent of work–family reconciliation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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46. Clinical Trends and Novel Research Insights into Testicular and Penile Disorders and Infertility.
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Bumbasirevic, Uros
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PENILE transplantation , *TESTIS physiology , *GLUTATHIONE transferase , *PENILE cancer , *FERTILITY decline , *MALE infertility , *INFERTILITY - Abstract
This document is a summary of a special issue titled "Clinical Trends and Novel Research Insights into Testicular and Penile Disorders and Infertility." The issue includes a collection of studies and reviews that aim to enhance understanding and drive innovations in the field of urology. The topics covered in the special issue range from surgical reconstructions of congenital genital anomalies to exploring potential causes of decline in global fertility and investigating associations between asthma and male infertility. The studies provide valuable contributions to the understanding of testicular and penile disorders and infertility. [Extracted from the article]
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- 2024
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47. China's Aging Problem Will Be Much More Serious When Urbanization is Completed.
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Herrero, Alicia Garcia
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AGING , *URBANIZATION , *FERTILITY decline , *ARTIFICIAL intelligence , *LIFE expectancy - Abstract
China is experiencing a rapidly declining fertility rate and increased life expectancy. Most people attribute China's structural deceleration to its demographics, but the reality is that the still-incomplete urbanization is helping to offset the negative impact of aging on growth. In fact, until 2035, China's labor force is only projected to contract in the rural areas, while the urban labor force will continue to grow, which is much more productive than in the rural areas. This is why aging will not have a negative impact on growth until urbanization is completed, which is estimated to happen around 2035. From that year onwards, the rapid fall in labor supply will shave off 1.3 percentage points of growth each year. By then, China is likely to grow only 1 percent per year, in line with Japan's potential growth today. Nevertheless, rapid robotization and artificial intelligence may mitigate the negative impact of aging in economic growth. Robotization has been ratcheted up in China - as well as in Japan much earlier - but neither in Japan's case nor in China's have we so far seen productivity increase, on the contrary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
48. HUNGARY FOR MORE.
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McKee, Brianna and Starkey, Lana
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FERTILITY decline , *GOVERNMENT policy , *FAMILY policy , *ELDER care - Abstract
The article focuses on the demographic challenges faced by countries with declining fertility rates, particularly Japan and Australia. Topics include the economic impact of low fertility rates; the role of government policies in addressing demographic decline; comparisons of family-friendly policies in Hungary and Australia; Japan's declining fertility rate and its severe implications for the economy, aged care and national security; and Australia and Hungary in addressing demographic decline.
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- 2024
49. What factors influence couples' decisions to have children? Evidence from a systematic scoping review.
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Ranjbar, Mohammad, Rahimi, Mohammad Kazem, Heidari, Edris, Bahariniya, Sajjad, Alimondegari, Maliheh, Lotfi, Mohammad Hasan, and Shafaghat, Tahereh
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COUPLES , *FAMILY planning , *FERTILITY decline , *SOCIAL factors , *GOVERNMENT aid - Abstract
Background: One of the most significant demographic challenges over the past three decades has been the substantial reduction in fertility rates, worldwidely. As a developing country, Iran has also experienced a rapid decline in fertility over the past decades. Understanding factors influencing fertility is essential for development programs. Moreover, it's crucial to study the parameters that affect the intention for childbearing in any society. Therefore, through a systematic scoping review, the present study investigates the factors influencing couples' decisions toward childbearing. Methods: This study was a systematic scoping review conducted in 2023. To design and conduct this scoping review, Joanna Briggs Institute's Protocol (Institute TJB, The Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewers ' manual 2015; methodology for JBI scoping reviews, 2015) was used and the framework presented by Levac et al. (2010) was also used as a guide for conducting this review. Studies were searched in three main databases including ISI Web of Sciences, PubMed, and Scopus, using a predefined search strategy. Google Scholar was also used for complementary search. The search period was from 2002 to 2022. Results: A total of 18,454 studies were identified across three primary databases. After evaluating articles in three distinct phases based on title, abstract, and full-text, 46 articles were deemed eligible for inclusion in the scoping review. The qualitative analysis of the collected data from the selected studies through the scoping review led to classifying factors influencing households' desire for childbearing into eight main themes and 101 sub-themes. The main themes associated with factors impacting households' intention for childbearing encompass individual determinants, demographic and familial influencing factors, cultural elements, social factors, health-related aspects, economic considerations, insurance-related variables, and government support/incentive policies. Conclusions: Comprehensive and holistic attention from governments and officials toward the various factors affecting households' intention and behavior regarding childbearing appears beneficial and effective. Furthermore, given the relative ineffectiveness of some of the current government's supportive/incentive policies to increase couples' desire for childbearing, it seems necessary to review and amend these policies. This review should address the most significant challenges and factors contributing to couples' reluctance to childbearing or strengthen factors that can play a substantial role in fostering fertility and childbearing desires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2024
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50. Short-term gains versus long-term strains: productivist policies and family resilience in China.
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Zhong, Xiaohui, Li, Bingqin, Fang, Qian, and Deng, Zihong
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FERTILITY decline ,FAMILY policy ,PSYCHOLOGICAL resilience ,FAMILY relations ,GOVERNMENT policy ,FAMILY roles - Abstract
This article studies the intricate dynamics of family resilience within the Chinese productivist regime over the course of seven decades, emphasizing the instrumental role of public policy in shaping this resilience. Drawing on a dynamic approach, the research demonstrates how, across distinct periods of central planning and economic reform, policies have persistently harnessed families to advance economic objectives. Showing that the productivist regime's double-edged role on family resilience emerged while public policies bolstered short-term family resilience in times of sustained economic growth and favorable demographics, and signs of family sector downturn—declining fertility rates, family dysfunctions—became evident, the current article underscores the challenges of a model that primarily perceives families as economic instruments. Advocating for a policy paradigm shift that harmonizes economic ambitions with family well-being, this study offers valuable insights for policy-makers and lays the groundwork for future research in comparative welfare systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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