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1. Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change

Author

Tommaso Stella, Jon I. Lizaso, Sravya Mamidanna, C. Gabaldón-Leal, Mohamed Jabloun, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Alex C. Ruane, Stefan Fronzek, Pierre Stratonovitch, Brian Collins, Pierre Martre, Roberto Ferrise, Jørgen E. Olesen, Alfredo Rodríguez, Frank Ewert, Marco Bindi, Loic Manceau, Babacar Faye, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Mikhail A. Semenov, Ignacio J. Lorite, Nándor Fodor, Claas Nendel, Heidi Webber, Simone Bregaglio, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague] (CAS), Aarhus University [Aarhus], iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria (CREA), Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), James Cook University (JCU), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Centre for Agricultural Research [Budapest] (ATK), Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA), Instituto Andaluz de Investigación y Formación Agraria y Pesquera (IFAPA), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), University of Potsdam, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Rothamsted Research, Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, International Wheat Yield Partnership (IWYP115 Project)., FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (2815ERA01J)., FACCE MACSUR project by Innovation Fund Denmark and by the SustES project—Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) through Designing Future Wheat [BB/P016855/1] and Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems [NE/N018125/1], FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the Franch National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE)., German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), (2851ERA01J) for FACCE MACSUR, the German Research Foundation under Germany’s Excellence Strategy, EXC-2070—390732324—PhenoRob., Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria = Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha = University of Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)

Subjects
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Return period, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, climate change impact, climate risk assessment, crop model, maize, relative distribution, wheat, Yield (finance), Distribution (economics), Climate change, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, IRRIGATION, Range (statistics), skin and connective tissue diseases, Baseline (configuration management), 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, 2. Zero hunger, ENVIRONMENT, 0303 health sciences, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, Crop yield, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, BIASES, COMPOUND DRY, 15. Life on land, CHANGE IMPACTS, VARIABILITY, CROP YIELDS, Plant Production Systems, 13. Climate action, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Environmental science, sense organs, business, Risk assessment
Abstract

International audience; While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between −0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of −0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation.

Published
2021
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2. Physical robustness of canopy temperature models for crop heat stress simulation across environments and production conditions

Author

Marco Bindi, Behnam Ababaei, Senthold Asseng, Matthew P. Reynolds, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Douglas J. Hunsaker, Heidi Webber, Bruce A. Kimball, Roberto Ferrise, Pierre Martre, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Paul J. Pinter, Arne M. Ratjen, Adam Luig, Jerry L. Hatfield, Mikhail A. Semenov, Gerard W. Wall, Pierre Stratonovitch, Jordi Doltra, Steven W. Leavitt, Jeffrey W. White, Belay T. Kassie, Frank Ewert, Jørgen E. Olesen, Robert L. LaMorte, Henning Kage, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Center for Development Research (ZEF), European Biological Control Laboratory, USDA-ARS (EBCL - USDA ARS), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), DISPAA, Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Institute of Crop Science and Plant Breeding, Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF), Leibniz Association, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5-1), FACCE JPI MACSUR project (2812ERA115), Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), CGIAR Research Program on Wheat, FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B), metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) INRA, JPI FACCE MACSUR, JPI FACCE MACSUR2, and German Science Foundation (project KA 3046/8-1)

Subjects
Canopy, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE, AIR CO2 ENRICHMENT, Energy balance, Soil Science, Climate change, klim, Canopy temperature, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Heat stress, climate change impact assessment, SPRING WHEAT, Atmospheric instability, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, FARMING SYSTEMS, Robustness (economics), Heat and drought interactions, Crop model improvement, WHEAT EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, CLIMATE-CHANGE, MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLES, Simulation modeling, Climate change impact assessments, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, [INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, ELEVATED CARBON-DIOXIDE, Stability conditions, Agronomy, heat and drought interaction, 13. Climate action, Soil water, Wheat, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, WATER-USE EFFICIENCY, DROUGHT-STRESS, Agronomy and Crop Science
Abstract

International audience; Despite widespread application in studying climate change impacts, most crop models ignore complex interactions among air temperature, crop and soil water status, CO2 concentration and atmospheric conditions that influence crop canopy temperature. The current study extended previous studies by evaluating Tc simulations from nine crop models at six locations across environmental and production conditions. Each crop model implemented one of an empirical (EMP), an energy balance assuming neutral stability (EBN) or an energy balance correcting for atmospheric stability conditions (EBSC) approach to simulate Tc. Model performance in predicting Tc was evaluated for two experiments in continental North America with various water, nitrogen and CO2 treatments. An empirical model fit to one dataset had the best performance, followed by the EBSC models. Stability conditions explained much of the differences between modeling approaches. More accurate simulation of heat stress will likely require use of energy balance approaches that consider atmospheric stability conditions.

Published
2018
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3. Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change

Author

Basso, B., Dumont, B., Maestrini, B., Shcherbak, I., Robertson, G.P., Porter, J.R., Smith, P.J., Paustian, K., Grace, P.R., Asseng, S., Bassu, S., Biernath, C.J., Boote, K.J., Cammarano, D., de Sanctis, G., Durand, J.L., Ewert, F., Gayler, S., Grant, R., Hyndman, D.W., Kent, J.W., Martre, P., Nendel, C., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Ruane, A.C., Sharp, J., Thorburn, P.J., Hatfield, J.L., Jones, J.W., Rosenzweig, C., Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Université de Liège, Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), INSTITUTE OF BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, University of Aberdeen, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Institute for Future Environments, Queensland University of Technology, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), European Commission, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP), German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), The James Hutton Institute, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Leibniz Association, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Partenaires INRAE, Plant & Food Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, UKAID for its primary financial support to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), USDA-NIFA under awards 2015-68007-23133, 2011-67003-3025, and 2011-68002-30190, FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B), metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA), and Swiss National Science Foundation (project number 167689).

Subjects
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, scénario climatique, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Soil Science, Climate change, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, 01 natural sciences, modèle de rendement, zea mays, Derivative (finance), carbone organique du sol, triticum aestivum, License, Publication, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Explicit permission, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, business.industry, Crop yield, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Soil carbon, 15. Life on land, Environmental economics, Agricultural sciences, 13. Climate action, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Business, Agronomy and Crop Science, Sciences agricoles, modèle de production
Abstract

A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.

Published
2018
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