Search

The paper explains the origin of the financial crisis in one country and its spread to other countries—contagion, in a dynamic model of international capital inflow. The origin of the crisis is rooted in this model in the common international loan market, and crisis can occur even when the countries are not interconnected via bi-lateral or multi-lateral trade and commerce, when connected via trade or commerce the contagion hits with a stronger effect. The paper introduces country-level heterogeneity of risk of default for individual countries in the borrowing group which generates interesting cases of the contagion effect. A change in the risk of default of an individual country adversely affects the total supply in the international loan market leading to crises in other countries via increased international interest rates. It has an enhanced effect when the risk of default depends on the lagged domestic productivity of the borrowing country. The model can explain various episodes of financial crisis in a common framework and can be usefully employed for policy formulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate the effect of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU), geopolitical risk (GPR) and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) of USA on Bitcoin volatility from August 2010 to August 2022. Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, the authors have adopted the empirical strategy of Yen and Cheng (2021), who modified volatility model of Wang and Yen (2019), and the authors use an OLS regression with Newey-West error term. Findings: The results using OLS regression with Newey–West error term suggest that the cryptocurrency market could have hedge or safe-haven properties against EPU and geopolitical uncertainty. While the authors find that the CPU has a negative impact on the volatility of the bitcoin market. Hence, the authors expect climate and environmental changes, as well as indiscriminate energy consumption, to play a more important role in increasing Bitcoin price volatility, in the future. Originality/value: This study has two implications. First, to the best of the authors' knowledge, the study is the first to extend the discussion on the effect of dimensions of uncertainty on the volatility of Bitcoin. Second, in contrast to previous studies, this study can be considered as the first to examine the role of climate change in predicting the volatility of bitcoin. This paper contributes to the literature on volatility forecasting of cryptocurrency in two ways. First, the authors discuss volatility forecasting of Bitcoin using the effects of three dimensions of uncertainty of USA (EPU, GPR and CPU). Second, based on the empirical results, the authors show that cryptocurrency can be a good hedging tool against EPU and GPR risk. But the cryptocurrency cannot be a hedging tool against CPU risk, especially with the high risks and climatic changes that threaten the environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the rationale for macroeconomic policy coordination with the aim of achieving greater policy credibility and effectiveness in West Africa still remains the subject of debate.

This study examines whether there is convergence in military expenditures among NATO countries by using Philips and Sul (Econometrica 75:1771–1855, 2007) convergence methodology. We obtained the primary dataset of 27 NATO member countries between 2009 and 2021 for their military expenditures to accomplish this. The results show no convergence between the military expenditures of NATO member states. In addition, although these 27 member countries are divergent, the analysis also identified three convergent clubs among NATO members with exciting patterns and trends in their military expenditures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examined the conditionalities of the cash transfer programme in Osun state, Nigeria. It examined the level of compliance of the beneficiaries of the programme and investigated the impacts of conditionalities of the cash transfer programme. A descriptive research design was adopted for the study and a sample size of 240 respondents was involved. Twenty-four communities were purposively selected for the study in Osun State. Ten recipients of the cash transfer programme were selected from each of the 24 communities using a simple random sampling technique. A research instrument was used for data collection known as the ‘Beneficiaries’ Questionnaire on Impacts of Conditionalities on Cash Transfer programme in Osun State’. Data collected were subjected to percentage analysis. Findings showed that the majority of the programme’s beneficiaries complied with the requirements or conditions attached to it. The findings of the study equally showed that the conditional cash transfer programme has changed the orientation of the beneficiaries on regular visitation to maternity centres. The study therefore concluded that for any poverty alleviation programme to be successful in Nigeria, especially in Osun state, conditionalities must be attached and beneficiaries should be encouraged to comply.

In the following paper, with the assistance of the international regime theory and hegemonic stability theory, a better understanding of the formation and creation of NATO is provided. The topic is linked to the ongoing debate about its future and to the high tensions currently taking place in Eastern Ukraine. The paper forms the hypothesis that NATO has been created to advocate the interest of the US. Based on qualitative research methodology, the main conclusion is that the current hegemon status of the US is under threat, which is resulting in higher maintenance costs.

The impact of U.S. monetary policy (USMP) on domestic interest rates and goods markets in Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) remains a subject of ongoing debate. We investigate the fluctuations in U.S. interest rates across 17 inflation-targeting EMEs with flexible exchange rates from 2000–2020. Our findings reveal asymmetric contagion effects, with U.S. interest rate decrease having a more significant short-term impact than rate hikes. Long-term U.S. rates minimally influence EMEs’ domestic rates. Resilience is observed in EMEs with robust GDP growth and favorable trade balances, while increased capital inflows and stock market surges heighten contagion risks. Focusing on the short-term contagion effect on goods markets through international trade drivers, we find that global capital flows and US dollar fluctuations, combined with a rise in the FED rate, contribute to the deterioration of EMEs’ trade balance. The study underscores the need for EMEs to monitor and respond to U.S. monetary policy changes for financial stability and advocates for enhanced international dialogue among policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For over a decade, developing nations have used foreign direct investment and trade to access advanced economies’ technology and knowledge. However, the role of emigrants in promoting the productive capacity of their home countries through the diffusion of knowledge and novel technologies has been relatively overlooked. The present study investigated the relationship between emigration stock and productive knowledge embedded in their origin economy, as measured by the Economic Complexity Index (ECI). The study applied a GMM Panel Vector Autoregressive (PVAR) technique to 86 non-high-income countries between 1995 and 2020. In principle, the PVAR model findings indicated that international emigrants promoted the level of technology and knowledge in their home countries. Further causality analyses revealed that within all countries, there was unidirectional causality from emigration to the ECI. However, a bidirectional relationship existed between the two variables in countries with low education levels. Developing countries should consider the opportunities emigrants offer when planning their development strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a data-based approximation of the effects of trade sanctions that can readily be computed on the basis of international input–output data. Approximated effects are very close to the exact responses obtained from a canonical multi-country multi-sector model, without having to make difficult calibration choices. We illustrate the approximation with trade sanctions against Russia and obtain estimates well within the existing range. Russia is much more affected by trade sanctions than the EU, even though the importance of EU markets for Russia has been falling, especially since 2014, with China picking up the slack. Within the EU the consequences are largest in ex-'satellite' countries of the Soviet Union: These countries do not typically have access to substitute markets and in fact have historically been highly dependent on Russia. This extreme and persistent dependence is at least partly explained by the existence of specific energy transport infrastructure (pipelines) that appears to constrain tightly the production of electricity. Our proposed approximation is practical and can be implemented in a variety of contexts: We have developed a web-based dashboard, accessible at https://exposure.trade/ that can be used to approximate the costs of trade sanctions for any combinations of sanctioning and sanctioned countries or sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the knowledge economy, intangible assets and intellectual property rights are increasingly recognized as a substance of competencies. As an emerging market of the world, Asian developing countries experience various issues related to intellectual property rights protection. Meanwhile, the current literature on intellectual property rights with an emphasis placed on Asia is quite scarce. Therefore, this study explores the determinants of the strength of intellectual property rights in 25 Asian developing countries during the 11-year period from 2006 to 2016. Using the fixed effects model (FEM) and random effects model (REM) with the Hausman test, the paper discovers the positive impacts of economic growth, trade openness, and WTO participation on the protection level of intellectual property rights. Unexpectedly, education is a negative determinant of intellectual property rights protection. This study aims to demonstrate the overall status quos of intellectual property rights regimes across Asian developing countries, so provide an important theoretical background for innovators, governments, and policymakers to design optimal intellectual property rights strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2020, in the context of the COVID-19 health crisis, the rules of the Stability and Growth Pact were temporarily suspended in the European Union. Nevertheless, the European Council and the European Parliament reached an agreement for the reactivation of these rules in 2024. A simple analytical modeling then shows that the empirical implications of the new rules suggested for a reformed Stability and Growth Pact would not be very different from those derived from the rules previously applied. Regarding highly indebted countries, the new debt sustainability safeguard of the reformed SGP could be slightly less binding than the previous rule of the Six Pack requiring to reduce 1/20th of the excess of the public debt each year. However, this criterion as well as those related to the structural budget deficit would not change much the conclusions and the recommendations of the reformed Stability and Growth Pact in comparison with former European fiscal rules. So, reactivated fiscal rules should remain difficult to comply with for many European countries.

Using data for the period 2000 to 2019, the aim of this paper is to profile and compare research publications in regions and continents. The empirical evidence is based on the Poisson regression model, quantile regression for counts data and panel negative binomial regression. The findings can be summarised as follows: continuous and linear increasing trends in the production of knowledge are noted in developing regions specifically in Africa even if the contribution of the continent to global research is marginal. In countries with least production, 'internet users' is not significant but schooling modulates its effect on research production contrarily to countries in the upper part of the distribution. In Africa, if the number of schooling years increases by one, the number of documents or published works produced is expected to increase by a factor of 1.147. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is no consensus on the existence of welfare gains from international monetary policy cooperation. This study adds to the debate by providing a new open macroeconomics model with incomplete exchange rate pass-through. We find that, from a global perspective, the welfare gains from international monetary policy cooperation arise with incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Furthermore, the country's incentive for cooperation increases with its degree of exchange rate pass-through. Cooperation benefits small countries with high pass-through; however, it is disadvantageous to large countries with low pass-through. In addition, when there is in the absence of cooperation, fixed exchange rate regime is preferred for a country suffering from monetary uncertainty, particularly for small economies with high exchange rate pass-through. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consequences of the COVID-19 crisis have had a negative impact on the fiscal stability of Republic of Srpska. Although the crisis is not officially over yet, a large number of countries needed to implement fiscal consolidation. Republic of Srpska is one of the small and open economies that are exposed to various negative market distortions. COVID-19 crisis of the most important foreign trade partners of the Republic Srpska has had a negative impact on the economy of Republic Srpska.