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A dynamic computable general equilibrium model is developed to analyze the distributional implications of trade liberalization in Guinea-Bissau. The model accommodates variable behavioral and social welfare functions and heterogeneous households. Although intra-group inequality has risen slightly by 0.057% due to trade liberalization, income inequality between groups has reduced by about 0.69%, and social welfare has increased. Durable goods prices remained high since they were not produced in significant quantities locally despite trade openness. This exacerbated intra-group income inequality by reducing low-income households’ accumulated wealth as their demand for durable goods rose. The study also explored the macroaggregate effects, which were positive over time. The average growth rate was about 1.38%, suggesting the potential of trade openness to improve macro and household outcomes in developing countries. Reforms in the domestic sectors, such as transport infrastructure and ports, will strengthen the economic impacts of trade openness. The implementation of such reforms and underlying challenges are equally discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition setups, we (1) dissect welfare losses for sanctions senders and target; (2) compare prospective coalition partners; (3) investigate 'optimal' coalitions that maximize payoff from sanctions; (4) provide bounds for sanctions potential, that is, the maximum welfare change attainable when sanctions are scaled vertically up to an embargo, and horizontally up to a global regime. Relative to unilateral action, we find that coalitions magnify welfare losses imposed while their impact on domestic welfare loss incurred depends on the design and sectoral dimension of sanctions. Hypothetical cooperation of large developing economies such as China additionally raises the deterrent force of coalitions. Additionally, we quantify transfers that equalize welfare losses across coalition members to further demonstrate asymmetries in the relative economic burden of sanctions. In all scenarios, we implement a novel Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands for simulation outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study applies a time-varying parameter/stochastic volatility vector autoregression (TVP-SV-VAR) model to explore the time-varying property of the link between Sino-US political relations and trade. The results indicate that the association of these two variables appears to be unstable. Sino-US political relations have positive and negative impacts on their bilateral trade, and the impact on Chinese imports is stronger than on its exports. In turn, Chinese imports from the US lead to political conflict, while Chinese exports promote peace. The interaction mechanism may originate from the expectations of the future trade environment caused by trade policy uncertainty. The interactions between Sino-US political relations and bilateral trade at different time points are also investigated. The results demonstrate that the link between these two variables is slightly different, depending on the specific status of the bilateral political relationship (friendly, neutral or hostile). Both China and the US should seek common interests to maintain a stable political relationship, and even with an increasing volume of bilateral trade, the risk of political conflicts should not be neglected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the economic impact of soaring international energy prices during the Russia-Ukraine conflict from February 23, 2022, to May 31, 2022. Notably, by applying a CGE model, this study offers insights into energy policies at both macroeconomic and industrial levels, emphasizing the model's utility in analyzing complex economic interactions under geopolitical stress. Findings indicate that: (1) Russia, a critical energy-producing country, faced severe economic setbacks due to sanctions, with its GDP contracting by 5.5 %, household income decreasing by 4 %, and consumer spending dropping by 3.5 %. This was accompanied by a significant reduction in domestic investment by 6 %, a decline in output by 5 %, and a decrease in societal welfare indicators. (2) Other energy-producing countries or regions, such as the Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, Australia, Canada, Mexico, and Southeast Asia, experienced economic benefits from the global energy market's “crowding-out effect.” These regions saw an increase in GDP ranging from 2 % to 4.5 %, output growth by 3 %–6 %, and household income and consumption improvements by approximately 3 %–5 %. However, these benefits were tempered by a 1 %–2.5 % decline in domestic investment due to rising local energy costs. (3) Developed and developing regions, suffered adverse impacts, including the US, UK, EU, Japan, China, South Asia, Middle Eastern non-oil-producing countries, and Africa. These regions reported a decrease in GDP by 0.5 %–3 %, a decline in household income by 2 %–4 %, and lower consumption rates by 1.5 %–3.5 %. The economic strain was further exacerbated by an inflation increase of up to 2 % across these economies. This research offers valuable insights for governments and policymakers globally to address the challenges posed by the Ukraine crisis-induced energy crisis, underscoring the need for strategic energy policy adjustments and economic resilience planning.

Turkey's foreign trade deficit with China has rapidly increased since the 2000s. To reduce the foreign trade deficit with China, Turkey needs to identify and diversify potential commodities to export to China with higher competitiveness. In this aspect, this study identifies potential export opportunities for Turkey in China among the Belt and Road Initiative China-Central Asia-West Asia economic corridor countries to increase Turkey's total export volume and diversification in China. The decision support model with some crucial modifications in accordance with regional practices is implemented to pick the export commodities with the highest export potential value. The results of the modified decision support model indicate that Turkey can have export potential, mostly in textiles, metals, machinery/electrical, and miscellaneous. The export promotion strategies for increasing export diversification and volume in China are recommended for Turkey’s future export strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finding a way of achieving economic growth in the crisis period due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and probable global regression aggravates the need for the implementation of managerial solutions of entering or intensifying participation in the perspective markets. The ICT industry has been a locomotive of economic development for the last decade for participating economies. The basic idea of the paper is based on the need to analyze the impact of countries’ participation in the ICT services market on their economic growth, consumer price indices (CPI), and exchange rates. The purpose was achieved by performing an analysis of the state and dynamics of the main indicators of the world ICT services market. The results show that the volume of ICT services exported and imported is growing. Moreover, we aimed to provide empirical evidence on the ICT services market’s impact on the economic parameters of the countries. We proposed a statistical model of Pearson’s r regression, based on the data of GDP values, CPI, and exchange rates of the 30 largest markets accounting for more than 90% of the ICT world market. The core results demonstrate stronger ICT services export and import correlation with GDP for economies with lower GDP per capita. The model shows a high success rate depending on variables. Based on the results obtained during modelling, propositions, and recommendations for countries with different socio-economic development levels were given.

In recent years, political rhetoric implying international trade hinder employment has gained momentum. We argue that the dynamics between the unemployment rate and the current account balance have both economic and political relevance. The presence of cointegration between the unemployment rate and the current account balance to GDP ratio and the nature of their short-run fluctuations will help us analyze the dynamics between the two objectively to evaluate the political rhetoric. We use quarterly data from 1948: Q1 to 2020: Q1 on the unemployment rate and current account balance to GDP ratio in the United States. Traditional cointegration tests fail to detect any cointegration. However, threshold cointegration tests confirm statistical evidence of threshold cointegration between the two. The estimated threshold vector error-correction model shows statistically significant evidence of falling unemployment rate coupled with deteriorating current account balance. This finding indicates that as unemployment rates go down, the current account balance deteriorates to maintain the long-run co-movement. Arguably, as the unemployment rate decline, concurrently imports rise faster than exports causing the current account balance to deteriorate. This finding thereby refutes the political rhetoric. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drawing upon recent studies that empirically estimate both the benefits and costs of trade, this paper addresses a simple and important question: By how much do the benefits of increased global trade outweigh the costs? To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to answer this question at global and World Bank income-grouping levels using empirically estimated relationships from the trade cost literature. Using a structural gravity model, we simulate changes in three primary trade constraints: a 10% reduction in tariff levels, a 10% reduction in effective distance, and a 10% increase in free trade agreement depth. The projection leads to a roughly 5% increase in global trade by value. Our model suggests that increased trade has an incredibly high benefit–cost ratio (BCR) for the developing world with an order-of-magnitude estimate for low- and lower–middle-income countries of 100 and for upper–middle-income countries of 50. However, the BCR for high-income countries is substantially lower, with a value closer to 5. Overall, the results suggest that free trade leads to substantial net benefits globally, generating US$ 700 billion in benefits (0.83% of global GDP) and US$ 100 billion in costs (0.12% of global GDP) in the first year, a differential that grows over time. Sensitivity analyses suggest that our BCRs are on the lower end of a plausible range. The results point to the incredible value of free trade, particularly for developing countries, and reiterate the importance of considering distributional impacts when implementing trade reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper links the ENVISAGE computable general equilibrium model with a microsimulation to assess the economic effects of implementing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Reductions of tariffs and non-tariff measures, implementation of a rule of origin, together with productivity gains stemming from trade cost reductions strengthens regional trade among RCEP members. The analysis indicate that tariff liberalization alone brings little benefit, with real income gains of 0.21 percent relative to the baseline (without the RCEP) in 2035. With liberal rules of origin, the gains in real income could double to 0.49 percent. The biggest benefits accrue when the productivity gains are considered, increasing real income by 2.5 percent and trade among RCEP members by 12.3 percent in 2035 relative to the baseline. RCEP has the potential to lift 27 million additional people to middle-class status by 2035. These aggregate effects mask large variety of outcomes across countries.

The aim of this paper is the detection crisis phenomena in the world grain market in the 2022/23 marketing year (MY), which worsened during the Russia-Ukraine invasion on February 24, 2022. Some countries and international organizations have recently expressed concern that the reduction of grain supply on the world market and the rapid rise in its price. Whether the impact of the destabilizing situation on the world grain market on the exacerbation of hunger is an open question. In order to fill the research gap, the paper tries analysis the global market into grain types between 2008/09 MY to 2021/22 MY and identify on it the shares of Ukraine and Russia. Two methods are used to conduct a comprehensive study of the grain market - fundamental and technical analysis. The analysis of the state and dynamics of the main indicators of the world grain market was carried out with the help of fundamental analysis. The results show that the volume of grain production in the world and the two warring countries are growing. Both countries supply about a quarter of all products in the overall structure of world grain exports. Finally, the result also shows that Ukraine and Russia are key exporters of barley, rye, wheat, and corn to low-income and least developed countries. Grain price forecasting through technical analysis was carried out. Based on the results obtained during the fundamental and technical analysis, three scenarios for the development of the grain market and its impact on the problem of hunger were proposed and given recommendations for levelling of crisis phenomena.

We use new geochemical, petrological, and rheological data to constrain the formation and emplacement of the highly compositionally unusual(andesitic basalt) Kīlauea 2018 Fissure 17 (F17) eruptive products. Despite the restricted spatial and temporal distribution, F17 samples are texturally and geochemically diverse. The western samples are enriched in SiO 2 by up to 10 wt%, relative to their eastern equivalents; additionally, the western samples contain microcrystalline enclaves, absent from the homogenous eastern samples. The compositions erupted along F17 suggest interaction between the basaltic 2018 juvenile magma and a crystal mush at depth, likely a left-over from the nearby 1955 eruption. Magma mingling caused heating and local melting of remnant mush, leading to melt hybridization and volatile exsolution. Rapid water exsolution likely caused overpressurization of the reservoir underneath the western side of F17, leading to Strombolian explosions of viscous magma, in contrast to sustained Hawaiian fountaining on the eastern side. Remelting of remnant crystal mush and melt hybridization in open-conduit systems may hence be an effective mechanism in inducing volatile saturation. • F17 samples are very texturally and geochemically diverse. • We constrain the formation and emplacement of Fissure 17 eruptive products. • F17 products suggest interaction between 2018 juvenile magma and 1955 crystal mush. • Melt hybridization in open-conduit systems may induce volatile saturation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overall, decoupling from certain countries may be both politically necessary and economically feasible, at least in the long run. However, a general shift of production back to Europe would be accompanied by significant losses in real income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The considerable relevant size of the tourism sector for some economies, together with this sector's vulnerability to CC, renders this study an insightful aid to tourism demand forecasting. The paper applies a pooled mean group (PMG) model to identify climate parameters that affect tourism demand. Then, it continues with an input–output table analysis to show the transmission effects of CC on each component of the tourism sector. The PMG model imposes homogeneity on the long-run coefficients and while less restrictive, it is more efficient than other methods of the same family. The estimated gravity equation enables comparisons of the baseline scenario with various different scenarios of CC and finds how tourist arrivals could be affected up to 2080. Our results suggest that there is mostly a positive relationship of the squared difference of temperature and precipitation between Greece and tourist origin countries. Our findings also suggest that CC could lead to a fall in Greek GDP between 1.79 and 2.61%. We believe that our findings will help design appropriate policy actions that may offset or alleviate these negative future negative impacts of CC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2018 LERZ eruption of Kilauea featured a wide range of eruptive styles. In particular, Fissure 17 (F17) displayed activity ranging from Hawaiian fountaining in the eastern part of the fissure to Strombolian explosions in the western part. Lava erupted from F17-West was highly viscous and contained magmatic enclaves. Magmatic enclaves have previously been observed in many other volcanic systems (e.g. Vulcano Island, IT and Sete Cidades Volcano, PT), where they have been attributed to injection of mafic magma into an evolved magma chamber, resulting in viscous fingering, quenching, and break-off into fragments. The F17 enclaves differ from previous studies in that the chemical compositions of the enclave and host magmas are very similar, and that the enclaves have a limited spatial distribution and lack signs of viscous behavior and quenching, pointing to a different formation mechanism than inferred for other volcanic systems. In order to test a different formation hypothesis, we conducted fractal analysis of the size distribution of 84 individual enclaves from F17-West lavas. Our results, including a fractal dimension of fragmentation D f of 2.59, indicate that the F17 enclaves likely formed by brittle fragmentation. Since the enclave and host magmas were at temperatures far above the glass transition during the magma hybridization, high strain rates have to be invoked to explain the brittle fragmentation. This may have caused the enclave magma to transition into solid-state behavior, allowing it to break off into fragments that were subsequently picked up by the host magma and carried to the free surface. The enclaves from F17-West therefore offer a unique insight into the diversity of processes that characterizes the shallow parts of volcanic systems, as well as the importance of strain rates in modulating the rheological behavior of magmas. • The Fissure 17 lava of the 2018 Kilauea LERZ eruption carried magmatic enclaves. • Fractal analysis indicates that the enclaves were formed by brittle fragmentation. • The brittle fragmentation was likely caused by high strain rates. • This formation mechanism differ from that of enclaves in other volcanic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A proposal to reform the United Kingdom's excise duty on alcohol is under consideration during 2022. The proposal would change the tax base from volume of product to volume of alcohol, which would see a fall in the tax on sparkling wine (by about one-fifth), a rise in the tax on fortified wines of 18% alcohol by volume (ABV) (by about one-sixth), and table wines with more (less) than 11.5% ABV would become dearer (cheaper). With taxes on most beers unchanged and taxes on spirits lowered slightly, the pattern of UK wine consumption and imports would alter considerably. This article draws on a global model of national alcoholic beverage markets to estimate the likely bilateral trade effects of this proposed reform to UK excise duties. It compares them with the trade effects of the United Kingdom's first two bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs), following the post-Brexit EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which allows Australian and New Zealand vignerons tariff-free access to the UK wine market. Those two FTAs are estimated to cause the United Kingdom to import far more wine than is lost by the proposed changes in UK excise duties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Escherichia coli is an important cause of diarrhea in calves and its diarrheagenic properties are related to presence of certain virulence genes. In this study, the prevalence of virulence genes F5, F17, F41, sta, stx1, stx2, eae, and saa in E. coli isolated from pre-weaned calves presenting with (n= 329) or without diarrhea (n= 360) was explored using multiplex polymerase chain reaction. We also evaluated the association between detection of E. coli and the presence of diarrhea. Results Escherichia coli was detected in 56.3% (388/689) of the fecal samples and showed the highest prevalence (66.5%) in 21–40-day-old calves and the lowest (46.3%) among those that were 1–20 days old. The prevalence of the enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC) and Shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC) pathotypes was detected in 73.9% and 15.9%, respectively. The results showed no association between diarrhea and the presence of E. coli in general, ETEC or STEC. The F17 gene was the most frequently detected virulence factor in E. coli of calves of all ages regardless of diarrhea. Interestingly, the results show that the calves aged 41–60 days with F17-positive E. coli are at a higher risk for production of Shiga toxin (Stx1; 95% confidence intervals: 1.86–31.95; P = 0.005) compared to calves aged 1–20 days; no association between this finding and diarrhea was observed among the calves of this age group. Moreover, the virulence genes associated with the ETEC and STEC strains were not significantly associated with pathogenicity in this study cohort. Conclusions These results suggest that while the incidence of E. coli is age-related, there was no relationship linking E. coli virulence genes to calf age and diarrhea. Furthermore, the present study demonstrated that detection of E. coli strains either with or without virulence factors was not associated with diarrhea in pre-weaned calves.

This paper explores the dynamic relationship among defense and non-defense government spending, the government debt, and the output gap in the United States. We estimate structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) models for the full sample (1947:Q1 to 2021:Q1), as well as two sub-samples: (1947:Q1-1980:Q1), during which debt-to-GDP ratio was falling, and (1981:Q1- 2021:Q1), during which the debt-to-GDP ratio was rising. The impulse responses (IRF) and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD) are computed to analyze the dynamics objectively and systematically. The impulse responses for the full sample and the second sub-sample indicate that non-defense spending responds to a shock to the output gap in a counter-cyclical fashion. Moreover, we find significant evidence of the impact of debt-to-GDP ratio on both defense and non-defense spending. A shock to a debt-to-GDP ratio causes non-defense spending to rise on impact and fall over the forecast horizon in all three time intervals. Defense spending, however, responds differently to this shock. While it is not significantly impacted in the full sample, it decreases in the first sub-sample and increases in the second sub-sample. The results from variance decomposition also show that a shock to debt-to-GDP ratio can explain most of variations in non-defense spending and part of the variations in defense spending. These results confirm that debt to GDP ratio is an important determinant of both defense and non-defense spending especially in the most recent years, as both categories tend to decline in response to a shock to debt to GDP ratio. This reinforces the idea that policy makers should focus mostly on reducing debt and therefore reducing interest payments associated with debt accumulation to have greater flexibility in spending on different categories.