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Background: Lyme disease (LD) and other tick-borne diseases are emerging across Canada. Spatial and temporal LD risk is typically estimated using acarological surveillance and reported human cases, the former not considering human behavior leading to tick exposure and the latter occurring after infection., Objectives: The primary objective was to explore, at the census subdivision level (CSD), the associations of self-reported tick exposure, alternative risk indicators (predicted tick density, eTick submissions, public health risk level), and ecological variables (Ixodes scapularis habitat suitability index and cumulative degree days > 0 °C) with incidence proportion of LD. A secondary objective was to explore which of these predictor variables were associated with self-reported tick exposure at the CSD level., Methods: Self-reported tick exposure was measured in a cross-sectional populational health survey conducted in 2018, among 10,790 respondents living in 116 CSDs of the Estrie region, Quebec, Canada. The number of reported LD cases per CSD in 2018 was obtained from the public health department. Generalized linear mixed-effets models accounting for spatial autocorrelation were built to fulfill the objectives., Results: Self-reported tick exposure ranged from 0.0 % to 61.5 % (median 8.9 %) and reported LD incidence rates ranged from 0 to 324 cases per 100,000 person-years, per CSD. A positive association was found between self-reported tick exposure and LD incidence proportion (ß = 0.08, CI = 0.04,0.11, p < 0.0001). The best-fit model included public health risk level (AIC: 144.2), followed by predicted tick density, ecological variables, self-reported tick exposure and eTick submissions (AIC: 158.4, 158.4, 160.4 and 170.1 respectively). Predicted tick density was the only significant predictor of self-reported tick exposure (ß = 0.83, CI = 0.16,1.50, p = 0.02)., Discussion: This proof-of-concept study explores self-reported tick exposure as a potential indicator of LD risk using populational survey data. This approach may offer a low-cost and simple tool for evaluating LD risk and deserves further evaluation., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare they have nothing to disclose., (Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier GmbH.)

Context: Environmental changes will foster the spread of Ixodes scapularis ticks and increase the incidence of Lyme disease in Québec in the coming years. The objective of this study is to estimate the epidemiological and clinical burden and part of the current economic burden of Lyme disease in Québec and to estimate the number of cases expected by 2050., Methods: Cases of Lyme disease reported in Québec from 2015 to 2019 were used to describe their demographic, geographical and clinical characteristics and the cost of their initial care. Three incidence rate scenarios were then developed to estimate the number of cases expected by 2050, based on demographic and climate projections., Results: From 2016 to 2019, 1,473 cases of Lyme disease were reported in Québec. Over 90% of those cases were acquired in two regions of southern Québec (Estrie and Montérégie), while the individuals infected were residents from all over Québec. The average age of cases is 44 years and 66% of infections were at the localized stage, the first stage of Lyme disease. The cost of initial care is estimated at an average of $182 CAN per patient ($47 CAN at the localized stage and $443 CAN at the disseminated stage). According to projections, over 95% of the Québec population will live in a climate zone conducive to the establishment of ticks by 2050, with a number of cases acquired in Québec being 1.3 to 14.5 times higher than in 2019, depending on the incidence rate scenario used., Conclusion: The epidemiological burden is concentrated primarily in southern Québec, but the clinical and economic burden is already distributed throughout the province. The projections for 2050 should help the regions of Québec adapt and optimize public health protection measures., Competing Interests: Competing interests None.

Lyme disease (LD) risk is emerging rapidly in Canada due to range expansion of its tick vectors, accelerated by climate change. The risk of contracting LD varies geographically due to variability in ecological characteristics that determine the hazard (the densities of infected host-seeking ticks) and vulnerability of the human population determined by their knowledge and adoption of preventive behaviors. Risk maps are commonly used to support public health decision-making on Lyme disease, but the ability of the human public to adopt preventive behaviors is rarely taken into account in their development, which represents a critical gap. The objective of this work was to improve LD risk mapping using an integrated social-behavioral and ecological approach to: (i) compute enhanced integrated risk maps for prioritization of interventions and (ii) develop a spatially-explicit assessment tool to examine the relative contribution of different risk factors. The study was carried out in the Estrie region located in southern Québec. The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, infected with the agent of LD is widespread in Estrie and as a result, regional LD incidence is the highest in the province. LD knowledge and behaviors in the population were measured in a cross-sectional health survey conducted in 2018 reaching 10,790 respondents in Estrie. These data were used to create an index for the social-behavioral component of risk in 2018. Local Empirical Bayes estimator technique were used to better quantify the spatial variance in the levels of adoption of LD preventive activities. For the ecological risk analysis, a tick abundance model was developed by integrating data from ongoing long-term tick surveillance programs from 2007 up to 2018. Social-behavioral and ecological components of the risk measures were combined to create vulnerability index maps and, with the addition of human population densities, prioritization index maps. Map predictions were validated by testing the association of high-risk areas with the current spatial distribution of human cases of LD and reported tick exposure. Our results demonstrated that social-behavioral and ecological components of LD risk have markedly different distributions within Estrie. The occurrence of human LD cases or reported tick exposure in a municipality was positively associated with tick density and the prioritization risk index (p < 0.001). This research is a second step towards a more comprehensive integrated LD risk assessment approach, examining social-behavioral risk factors that interact with ecological risk factors to influence the management of emerging tick-borne diseases, an approach that could be applied more widely to vector-borne and zoonotic diseases., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Crown Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.)

Background: Lyme disease (LD) emerged in southern Québec at the start of the century, with many municipalities now endemic. A coordinated active surveillance programme has been in place in the province of Québec since 2014, including a limited number of sentinel field sites resampled each year and a larger set of accessory field sites that change yearly according to the LD surveillance signal. We aimed to evaluate whether a sentinel approach to active surveillance was more representative of LD risk to human populations, compared to risk-based surveillance., Methods: We compared enzootic hazard measures (average nymph densities) from sentinel and accessory sites with LD risk (number of human LD cases) across the study area between 2015 and 2019 using local bivariate Moran's I analysis., Results: Hazard measures from sentinel sites captured spatial risk significantly better than data from accessory sites (χ 2 =20.473, p <0.001). In addition, sentinel sites successfully tracked the interannual trend in LD case numbers, whereas accessory sites showed no association despite the larger sample size., Conclusion: Where surveillance aims to document changes in tick-borne disease risk over time and space, we suggest that repeated sampling of carefully selected field sites may be most effective, while risk-based surveillance may be more usefully applied to confirm the presence of emerging disease risk in a specific region of interest or to identify suitable sites for long-term monitoring as LD and other tick-borne diseases continue to emerge., Competing Interests: Competing interests None.

Objectives: With vector-borne diseases emerging across the globe, precipitated by climate change and other anthropogenic changes, it is critical for public health authorities to have well-designed surveillance strategies in place. Sentinel surveillance has been proposed as a cost-effective approach to surveillance in this context. However, spatial design of sentinel surveillance system has important impacts on surveillance outcomes, and careful selection of sentinel unit locations is therefore an essential component of planning., Methods: A review of the available literature, based on the realist approach, was used to identify key decision issues for sentinel surveillance planning. Outcomes of the review were used to develop a decision tool, which was subsequently validated by experts in the field., Results: The resulting decision tool provides a list of criteria which can be used to select sentinel unit locations. We illustrate its application using the case example of designing a national sentinel surveillance system for Lyme disease in Canada., Conclusions: The decision tool provides researchers and public health authorities with a systematic, evidence-based approach for planning the spatial design of sentinel surveillance systems, taking into account the aims of the surveillance system and disease and/or context-specific considerations., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Guillot, Bouchard, Aenishaenslin, Berthiaume, Milord and Leighton.)

Public health management of Lyme disease (LD) is a dynamic challenge in Canada. Climate warming is driving the northward expansion of suitable habitat for the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. Information about tick population establishment is used to inform the risk of LD but is challenged by sampling biases from surveillance data. Misclassifying areas as having no established tick population underestimates the LD risk classification. We used a logistic regression model at the municipal level to predict the probability of I. scapularis population establishment based on passive tick surveillance data during the period of 2010-2017 in southern Quebec. We tested for the effect of abiotic and biotic factors hypothesized to influence tick biology and ecology. Additional variables controlled for sampling biases in the passive surveillance data. In our final selected model, tick population establishment was positively associated with annual cumulative degree-days > 0°C, precipitation and deer density, and negatively associated with coniferous and mixed forest types. Sampling biases from passive tick surveillance were controlled for using municipal population size and public health instructions on tick submissions. The model performed well as indicated by an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92, sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%. Our model enables prediction of I. scapularis population establishment in areas which lack data from passive tick surveillance and may improve the sensitivity of LD risk categorization in these areas. A more sensitive system of LD risk classification is important for increasing awareness and use of protective measures employed against ticks, and decreasing the morbidity associated with LD., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest None., (Crown Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.)

In August 2021, a legionellosis outbreak involving 7 persons occurred within a 500-meter radius in the Montérégie region of Québec, Canada. Near real-time modeling of wind direction along with epidemiologic and environmental investigations identified the possible source. Modeling wind direction could help identify likely Legionella pneumophila sources during legionellosis outbreaks.

Background: Despite increases in cases of Lyme disease, little is known about the management and clinical course of the disease in Canada. We aimed to describe the management and clinical course of Lyme disease in patients treated in acute care facilities in Quebec and to assess adherence to the 2006 Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) guideline., Methods: This retrospective multicentre cohort study included pediatric and adult patients with serologically confirmed Lyme disease treated in acute care facilities (12 community hospitals and 2 tertiary care centres) of 2 endemic regions of Quebec (Estrie and Montérégie), from 2004 to 2017. We considered drug choice, prescribed dose and treatment duration in assessing adherence of prescriptions to the 2006 IDSA guideline. The main outcome was complete resolution of symptoms at 3 months after the initiation of treatment., Results: We included 272 patients from 14 institutions (age range 3-87 yr). Early disseminated Lyme disease (140 patients [51%]) was predominant. Adherence to the IDSA guideline was observed in 235 (90%) of the 261 cases with complete information, and adherence was stable over time (2004-2013: 57/64 [89%]; 2014-2015: 64/71 [90%]; 2016-2017: 114/126 [90%]; p = 0.8). Non-adherence to the guideline ( n = 26) was predominantly due to longer-than-recommended treatment duration (16/26 [62%]). Resolution of objective signs at 3 months after treatment initiation occurred in 265 (99%) of 267 patients, whereas post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome was observed in 27 patients (10%) with increasing incidence over time (2004-2013: 3/65 [5%]; 2014-2015: 4/73 [5%]; 2016-2017: 20/129 [16%]; p = 0.02)., Interpretation: We observed clinical resolution of Lyme disease in 99% of the patients, and most treatments (90%) complied with the 2006 IDSA guideline. The incidence of post-treatment Lyme disease syndrome increased over the study period, warranting further prospective studies., Competing Interests: Competing interests: For work unrelated to the current study, Emmanuelle Cantin has received grants from the Centre de recherche du CHU Sherbrooke. No other competing interests were declared., (© 2022 CMA Impact Inc. or its licensors.)

Lyme disease (LD) is a tick-borne disease which has been emerging in temperate areas in North America, Europe, and Asia. In Quebec, Canada, the number of human LD cases is increasing rapidly and thus surveillance of LD risk is a public health priority. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the ability of active sentinel surveillance to track spatiotemporal trends in LD risk. Using drag flannel data from 2015-2019, we calculated density of nymphal ticks (DON), an index of enzootic hazard, across the study region (southern Quebec). A Poisson regression model was used to explore the association between the enzootic hazard and LD risk (annual number of human cases) at the municipal level. Predictions from models were able to track both spatial and interannual variation in risk. Furthermore, a risk map produced by using model predictions closely matched the official risk map published by provincial public health authorities, which requires the use of complex criteria-based risk assessment. Our study shows that active sentinel surveillance in Quebec provides a sustainable system to follow spatiotemporal trends in LD risk. Such a network can support public health authorities in informing the public about LD risk within their region or municipality and this method could be extended to support Lyme disease risk assessment at the national level in Canada.

Background: Tick-borne diseases, and especially Lyme Disease (LD), are on the rise in Canada and have been met with increasing public health concern. To face these emerging threats, education on the prevention of tick bites remains the mainstay of public health intervention. The objective of this study was to assess the adoption of preventive behaviors toward tick bites and LD and to investigate the association between behavioral risk factors and reported tick exposure in a Canadian, LD high incidence region (Estrie region, Quebec, Canada)., Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2018 which used a telephone questionnaire administered to a random sample of 10,790 adult residents of the study region. Questions investigated tick exposure, LD awareness, attitudes towards LD risk, outdoor and preventive behaviors, as well as antibiotic post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) treatments in the case of a tick bite. Descriptive and multivariable analyses were carried out, considering the nine administrative subregions and the stratified survey design., Results: The sub-regional prevalence of reported tick exposure in the previous year ranged from 3.4 to 21.9%. The proportion of respondents that adopted preventive behaviors varied from 27.0% (tick checks) to 30.1% (tick repellent) and 44.6% (shower after outdoor activities). A minority of respondents (15.9%) that sought healthcare after a tick bite received a PEP treatment. Performing tick checks (Odds ratio = 4.33), time spent outdoors (OR = 3.09) and living in a subregion with a higher public health LD risk level (OR = 2.14) were associated with reported tick exposure in multivariable models., Conclusions: This study highlights the low level of adoption of preventive behaviors against tick bites in a region where LD risk is amongst the highest in Canada. This suggests a concerning lack of improvement in LD prevention, as low levels of adoption were already reported in studies conducted in the last decade. Innovative and evidence-based approaches to improve education on ticks and tick-borne diseases and to promote behavior changes are urgently needed in Canada., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The economic burden of West Nile virus (WNV) infection is not known for Canada. We sought to describe the direct and indirect costs of WNV infection in the province of Quebec, Canada, up to 2 years after onset of signs and symptoms. We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included WNV cases reported during 2012 and 2013. For 90 persons infected with WNV, persons with encephalitis accounted for the largest proportion of total cost: a median cost of $21,332 per patient compared with $8,124 for West Nile meningitis (p = 0.0004) and $192 for West Nile fever (p<0.0001). When results were extrapolated to all reported WNV patients, the estimated total cost for 124 symptomatic cases was ≈$1.7 million for 2012 and that for 31 symptomatic cases was ≈$430,000 for 2013. Our study provides information for the government to make informed decisions regarding public health policies and infectious diseases prevention and control programs.

Climate change is driving emergence and establishment of Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease in Québec, Canada. As for the black-legged tick, I. scapularis Say, global warming may also favor northward expansion of other species of medically important ticks. The aims of this study were to determine (1) current diversity and abundance of ticks of public health significance other than I. scapularis, (2) sex and age of the human population bitten by these ticks (3), and the seasonal and geographic pattern of their occurrence. From 2007 to 2015, twelve tick species other than I. scapularis were submitted in the Québec passive tick surveillance program. Of these 9243 ticks, 91.2% were Ixodes cookei, 4.1% were Dermacentor variabilis, 4.0% were Rhipicephalus sanguineus and 0.7% were Amblyomma americanum. The combined annual proportion of submitted I. cookei, D. variabilis, R. sanguineus and A. americanum ticks in passive surveillance rose from 6.1% in 2007 to 16.0% in 2015 and an annual growing trend was observed for each tick species. The number of municipalities where I. cookei ticks were acquired rose from 104 to 197 during the same period. Of the 862 people bitten by these ticks, 43.3% were I. cookei ticks removed from children aged < 10 years. These findings demonstrate the need for surveillance of all the tick species of medical importance in Québec, particularly because climate may increase their abundance and geographic ranges, increasing the risk to the public of the diseases they transmit., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Lyme disease is an emerging public health threat in Canada. In this context, rapid detection of new risk areas is essential for timely application of prevention and control measures. In Canada, information on Lyme disease risk is collected through three surveillance activities: active tick surveillance, passive tick surveillance, and reported human cases. However, each method has shortcomings that limit its ability to rapidly and reliably identify new risk areas. We investigated the relationships between risk signals provided by human cases, passive and active tick surveillance to assess the performance of tick surveillance for early detection of emerging risk areas. We used regression models to investigate the relationships between the reported human cases, Ixodes scapularis (Say; Acari: Ixodidae) ticks collected on humans through passive surveillance and the density of nymphs collected by active surveillance from 2009 to 2014 in the province of Quebec. We then developed new risk indicators and validated their ability to discriminate risk levels used by provincial public health authorities. While there was a significant positive relationship between the risk signals provided all three surveillance methods, the strongest association was between passive tick surveillance and reported human cases. Passive tick submissions were a reasonable indicator of the abundance of ticks in the environment (sensitivity and specificity [Se and Sp] < 0.70), but were a much better indicator of municipalities with more than three human cases reported over 5 yr (Se = 0.88; Sp = 0.90). These results suggest that passive tick surveillance provides a timely and reliable signal of emerging risk areas for Lyme disease in Canada.

We aimed to describe the clinical characteristics of West Nile patients reported in Québec in 2012 and 2013 and to document physical, mental and functional status 24 months after symptom onset according to illness severity. The cases were recruited by a public health professional. Data were collected from public health files, medical records and two standardised phone questionnaires: the Short Form-36 and the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living. In all, 92 persons participated in the study (25 had West Nile fever (WNF), 18 had meningitis and 49 had encephalitis). Encephalitis participants were older, had more underlying medical conditions, more neurological symptoms, worse hospital course and higher lethality than meningitis or WNF participants. Nearly half of the surviving hospitalised encephalitis patients required extra support upon discharge. At 24-month follow-up, encephalitis and meningitis patients had a lower score in two domains of the mental component: mental health and social functioning (P = 0.0025 and 0.0297, respectively) compared with the norms based on age- and sex-matched Canadians. Physical status was not affected by West Nile virus (WNV) infection. In addition, 5/36 (15%) of encephalitis, 1/17 (6%) of meningitis and 1/23 (5%) of WNF participants had new functional limitations 24 months after symptom onset. In summary, mental and functional sequelae in encephalitis patients are likely to represent a source of long-term morbidity. Preventive measures should target patients at higher risk of severe illness after WNV infection.

Background: The risk of contracting Lyme disease (LD) can vary spatially because of spatial heterogeneity in risk factors such as social-behavior and exposure to ecological risk factors. Integrating these risk factors to inform decision-making should therefore increase the effectiveness of mitigation interventions., Objectives: The objective of this study was to develop an integrated social-behavioral and ecological risk-mapping approach to identify priority areas for LD interventions., Methods: The study was conducted in the Montérégie region of Southern Quebec, Canada, where LD is a newly endemic disease. Spatial variation in LD knowledge, risk perceptions, and behaviors in the population were measured using web survey data collected in 2012. These data were used as a proxy for the social-behavioral component of risk. Tick vector population densities were measured in the environment during field surveillance from 2007 to 2012 to provide an index of the ecological component of risk. Social-behavioral and ecological components of risk were combined with human population density to create integrated risk maps. Map predictions were validated by testing the association between high-risk areas and the current spatial distribution of human LD cases., Results: Social-behavioral and ecological components of LD risk had markedly different distributions within the study region, suggesting that both factors should be considered for locally adapted interventions. The occurrence of human LD cases in a municipality was positively associated with tick density ( p <0.01) but was not significantly associated with social-behavioral risk., Conclusion: This study is an applied demonstration of how integrated social-behavioral and ecological risk maps can be created to assist decision-making. Social survey data are a valuable but underutilized source of information for understanding regional variation in LD exposure, and integrating this information into risk maps provides a novel approach for prioritizing and adapting interventions to the local characteristics of target populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1943.

Background: Lyme disease (LD), a multisystem infection caused by the spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (B. burgdorferi), is the most reported vector-borne disease in North America, and by 2020, 80% of the population in central and eastern Canada could live in LD risk areas. Among the key factors for minimising the impact of LD are the accurate diagnosis and appropriate management of patients bitten by ticks. In this study, the practices of Quebec general practitioners (GPs) on LD diagnosis and management of patients bitten by infected ticks are described., Methods: Eight years (2008 to 2015) of retrospective demographic and clinical data on patients bitten by infected Ixodes scapularis (I. scapularis) ticks and on the management of suspected and confirmed LD cases by Quebec GPs were analysed., Results: Among 50 patients, all the antimicrobial treatments of LD clinical cases were appropriate according to current guidelines. However, more than half (62.8%) of erythema migrans (EM) were possibly misdiagnosed, 55.6%, (n = 27) of requested serologic tests were possibly unnecessary and the majority (96.5%, n = 57) of prophylactic antimicrobial treatments were not justified according to current guidelines., Conclusions: These observations underline the importance for public health to enhance the knowledge of GPs where LD is emerging, to minimise the impact of the disease on patients and the financial burden on the health system.

Background: Lyme disease control strategies may include tick control interventions in high risk areas. Public authorities may be interested to assess how these types of interventions are perceived by the public which may then impact their acceptability. The aims of this paper are to compare socio-cognitive factors associated with high acceptability of tick control interventions and to describe perceived issues that may explain their low acceptability in populations living in two different regions, one being an endemic region for LD since the last 30 years, the Neuchâtel canton, in Switzerland, and another where the disease is emerging, the Montérégie region, in Canada., Methods: A mixed methods' design was chosen. Quantitative data were collected using web-surveys conducted in both regions (n = 814). Multivariable logistic regressions were used to compare socio-cognitive factors associated with high acceptability of selected interventions. Qualitative data were collected using focus group's discussions to describe perceived issues relative to these interventions., Results: Levels of acceptability in the studied populations were the lowest for the use of acaricides and landscaping and were under 50 % in both regions for six out of eight interventions, but were higher overall in Montérégie. High perceived efficacy of the intervention was strongly associated with high acceptability of tick control interventions. A high perceived risk about LD was also associated with a high acceptability of intervention under some models. High level of knowledge about LD was negatively associated with high acceptability of the use of acaricides in Neuchâtel. Perceived issues explaining low acceptability included environmental impacts, high costs to the public system, danger of individual disempowerment and perceptions that tick control interventions were disproportionate options for the level of LD risk., Conclusion: This study suggests that the perceived efficacy and LD risk perception may be key factors to target to increase the acceptability of tick control interventions. Community-level issues seem to be important considerations driving low acceptability of public health interventions. Results of this study highlight the importance for decision-makers to account for socio-cognitive factors and perceived issues that may affect the acceptability of public health interventions in order to maximize the efficacy of actions to prevent and control LD.

Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector-borne and zoonotic diseases.