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Uncertainties in carbon chemistry variability still remain large in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), as data gaps limit our ability to infer basin-wide patterns. Here we configure and validate a regional high-resolution ocean biogeochemical model for the GoM to describe seasonal patterns in surface pressure of CO2 (pCO2), aragonite saturation state (ΩAr), and sea–air CO2 flux. Model results indicate that seasonal changes in surface pCO2 are strongly controlled by temperature across most of the GoM basin, except in the vicinity of the Mississippi–Atchafalaya river system delta, where runoff largely controls dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) changes. Our model results also show that seasonal patterns of surface ΩAr are driven by seasonal changes in DIC and TA, and reinforced by the seasonal changes in temperature. Simulated sea–air CO2 fluxes are consistent with previous observation-based estimates that show CO2 uptake during winter–spring, and CO2 outgassing during summer–fall. Annually, our model indicates a basin-wide mean CO2 uptake of 0.35 molm-2yr-1, and a northern GoM shelf (< 200 m) uptake of 0.93 molm-2yr-1. The observation and model-derived patterns of surface pCO2 and CO2 fluxes show good correspondence; thus this study contributes to improved constraints of the carbon budget in the region.

Biogeochemical models that simulate realistic lower-trophic-level dynamics, including the representation of main phytoplankton and zooplankton functional groups, are valuable tools for improving our understanding of natural and anthropogenic disturbances in marine ecosystems. Previous three-dimensional biogeochemical modeling studies in the northern and deep Gulf of Mexico (GoM) have used only one phytoplankton and one zooplankton type. To advance our modeling capability of the GoM ecosystem and to investigate the dominant spatial and seasonal patterns of phytoplankton biomass, we configured a 13-component biogeochemical model that explicitly represents nanophytoplankton, diatoms, micro-, and mesozooplankton. Our model outputs compare reasonably well with observed patterns in chlorophyll, primary production, and nutrients over the Louisiana–Texas shelf and deep GoM region. Our model suggests silica limitation of diatom growth in the deep GoM during winter and near the Mississippi delta during spring. Model nanophytoplankton growth is weakly nutrient limited in the Mississippi delta year-round and strongly nutrient limited in the deep GoM during summer. Our examination of primary production and net phytoplankton growth from the model indicates that the biomass losses, mainly due to zooplankton grazing, play an important role in modulating the simulated seasonal biomass patterns of nanophytoplankton and diatoms. Our analysis further shows that the dominant physical process influencing the local rate of change of model phytoplankton is horizontal advection in the northern shelf and vertical mixing in the deep GoM. This study highlights the need for an integrated analysis of biologically and physically driven biomass fluxes to better understand phytoplankton biomass phenologies in the GoM.

The Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DWHOS) spatially and temporally overlapped with the spawning of many fish species, including Red Snapper, one of the most economically important reef fish in the Gulf of Mexico. To investigate potential impacts of the DWHOS on larval Red Snapper, data from a long-term ichthyoplankton survey off the coast of Alabama were used to examine: (1) larval abundances among pre-impact (2007–2009), impact (2010), and post-impact (2011, 2013) periods; (2) proxies for larval condition (size-adjusted morphometric relationships and dry weight) among the same periods; and (3) the effects of background environmental variation on larval condition. We found that larval Red Snapper were in poorer body condition during 2010, 2011, and 2013 as compared to the 2007–2009 period, a trend that was strongly (and negatively) related to variation in Mobile Bay freshwater discharge. However, larvae collected during and after 2010 were in relatively poor condition even after accounting for variation in freshwater discharge and other environmental variables. By contrast, no differences in larval abundance were detected during these survey years. Taken together, larval supply did not change relative to the timing of the DWHOS, but larval condition was negatively impacted. Even small changes in condition can affect larval survival, so these trends may have consequences for recruitment of larvae to juvenile and adult life stages.