1. Multicenter external validation of two malignancy risk prediction models in patients undergoing 18F-FDG-PET for solitary pulmonary nodule evaluation
- Author
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M. Signorini, Simone Perandini, Giovanna Rizzardi, Antonio Solazzo, L Mancino, Stefania Montemezzi, Ar Larici, F Zeraj, Massimiliano Motton, M Bernhart, Gian Alberto Soardi, and A. del Ciello
- Subjects
Male ,Risk ,Solid pulmonary nodule ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Lung Neoplasms ,Decision analysis ,Malignancy ,Risk Assessment ,Decision Support Techniques ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Fluorodeoxyglucose F18 ,Humans ,Medicine ,Radiology, Nuclear Medicine and imaging ,Computed tomography ,Aged ,Retrospective Studies ,Settore MED/36 - DIAGNOSTICA PER IMMAGINI E RADIOTERAPIA ,Neuroradiology ,Solitary pulmonary nodule ,18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography ,Receiver operating characteristic ,business.industry ,Area under the curve ,Solitary Pulmonary Nodule ,Bayes Theorem ,Lung cancer ,Retrospective cohort study ,General Medicine ,Middle Aged ,Models, Theoretical ,medicine.disease ,ROC Curve ,030228 respiratory system ,Area Under Curve ,030220 oncology & carcinogenesis ,Female ,Radiology ,Radiopharmaceuticals ,Risk assessment ,business - Abstract
To achieve multicentre external validation of the Herder and Bayesian Inference Malignancy Calculator (BIMC) models. Two hundred and fifty-nine solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) collected from four major hospitals which underwent 18-FDG-PET characterization were included in this multicentre retrospective study. The Herder model was tested on all available lesions (group A). A subgroup of 180 SPNs (group B) was used to provide unbiased comparison between the Herder and BIMC models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) analysis was performed to assess diagnostic accuracy. Decision analysis was performed by adopting the risk threshold stated in British Thoracic Society (BTS) guidelines. Unbiased comparison performed In Group B showed a ROC AUC for the Herder model of 0.807 (95 % CI 0.742–0.862) and for the BIMC model of 0.822 (95 % CI 0.758–0.875). Both the Herder and the BIMC models were proven to accurately predict the risk of malignancy when tested on a large multicentre external case series. The BIMC model seems advantageous on the basis of a more favourable decision analysis. • The Herder model showed a ROC AUC of 0.807 on 180 SPNs. • The BIMC model showed a ROC AUC of 0.822 on 180 SPNs. • Decision analysis is more favourable to the BIMC model.
- Published
- 2016