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In the present study, bio-meteorological regression models for forecasting the fruit produced by the olive trees in Jaen (southern Spain), the province with the largest extension of olive groves in the world, were revised and improved. The new forecasting models were constructed using partial least-squares regression, taking the annual olive yield as the dependent variable and several aerobiological and meteorological parameters as the independent variables. The models were validated following a full cross-validation method. A 23-year period (1994–2016) was used. The number of days with pollen concentrations ≥400 pollen grains m−3 was revealed as a newfangled predictive variable to accurately predict the olive harvest in this area, being included in the forecasting model with the highest determination coefficient value (R2 = 0.89). Weather-related variables such as the cumulative precipitation from October to December of the previous year or the mean maximum temperature from January to March were also factors of particular importance on crop production. The new model proposed provides early and effective olive crop forecasting by using independent variables which can be easily obtained towards the middle of June, also incorporating to the model the phenological variability associated with changes in the local weather. The approach shown in this study readily could be applied to any potential new situation and to be extensible to other similar olive growing areas across the Mediterranean region.

Over the last few decades, global warming is prompting phenological changes in numerous plant species across Europe, and a trend towards rising airborne pollen concentrations has been detected. This study, focused on the most frequent pollen types from arboreal and herbaceous species in the airborne spectrum of Jaen (southern Spain), revealed significant changes in airborne pollen intensity and duration of the pollen season over the 23-year study period. Here Cupressaceae, Olea, Pinus, Platanus, Quercus as arboreal taxa and Plantago as herbaceous taxa were the most important with notable changes of at least three pollen season characteristics. Airborne pollen trends from arboreal taxa with high to very high allergenic potential are rising in line with the local temperature increasing trend, and their pollen seasons tend to end later and last longer. However, both the pollen concentrations and the duration of the pollen season of some herbaceous taxa are declining. The climate conditions projected for south Europe under different greenhouse emissions scenarios could continue to prompt greater pollen release and longer pollen season in tree species, especially those that flowering in winter and early spring, but these warming trends might be adverse for the local development of some herbaceous species and favorable for others sharing the same ecological niche. If similar warming trends accompany long-term climate change, greater exposure times to seasonal allergens may occur with subsequent effects on health.

a b s t r a c t The aim of the present study was to analyse long temporal trends in cumulative temperatures and olive (Olea europaea L.) reproductive features, including full flowering dates and daily pollen concentrations, in three Mediterranean areas. The study used a 19-year database (1993-2011) of pollen and temperature records from the sites of Perugia (Italy), Jaen (Spain) and Zarzis (Tunisia). The analysis of long-term trends in both temperatures and olive reproductive cycles was performed using two approaches. The first is a seasonal trend decomposition procedure based on locally weighted regression (Loess) smoothing (STL), which is a filtering procedure for decomposing seasonal time series into three components: trend, seasonal, and remainder. The second approach analyses the trend components using Mann-Kendall tests. Loess smoothing provides a good approach to study long-term meteorological and phenological trends. Removing both the seasonal and the remainder components, the real rising trends over time can be interpreted. In general, a significant and clear increasing trend in the spring cumulative temperature was revealed, with decreasing trends in the full flowering dates of the olive trees located in Perugia and Zarzis. Moreover, olive pollen emissions are decreasing, which is more evident for the highest and lowest latitudinal study sites. These data indicate that increasing temperatures result in both anticipation of olive tree flowering and lower airborne pollen emission. As a consequence, the lower atmospheric pollen levels will reduce human exposure to olive pollen in the Mediterranean area. These patterns are evident for the highest and lowest latitudes, but not clear in the intermediate latitudes of Jaen, where further analysis is needed.

The aim of this study was the elaboration and the spatio-temporal interpretation of Olea europaea L. airborne-pollen maps across the main olive cultivation areas within the Mediterranean basin (i.e. Tunisia, Spain, Italy). The study was performed using aerobiological databases recorded from 27 georeferenced study sites. Maps were elaborated for different 10-day period through spring and summer: 1, 10, 20, 30 April; 10, 20, 30 May; 9, 19, 30 June; and 10 July. Average pollen counts in each study site were considered for the 13-year period from 1999 to 2011. Both these 10-day period of pollen emission data and the geographical coordinates were used as variables in the elaboration of the 10-day period maps. The ‘Natural Neighbour’ interpolation method was used. The statistical relationship between spatial location and maximum pollen emission was studied using linear regression and cluster analyses. The airborne-pollen maps show a spatio-temporal pattern in the pollen season. The maximum pollen emission is progressively delayed with northward changes in latitude, and the classification of the Olea maximum pollen emission date into four latitudinal categories is defined. The maximum Olea pollen concentrations were mainly recorded around 20 May. Early flowering in Tunisia coastal zones can indicate the onset of the olive pollen release season in the occidental Mediterranean region, while the central olive-growing areas in Italy can indicate the end of the olive pollen release season. These maps give information of the major risk days to the people who are allergic to olive pollen.

SUMMARYThe main objective of this research was to utilize pollen monitoring methodology to predict olive yields in three Mediterranean olive cultivation areas (Spain, Italy and Tunisia) and their relationships with the olive oil price dynamics. Moreover, olive yield and olive oil production compared with olive oil price trends in the last two decades was evaluated. The statistical analyses confirmed that biological parameters such as the pollen emission, the pollen season start (Pss), the full flowering (Ff) date or the pollen season length (Psl) showed positive correlation values with productive parameters, especially the Pollen Index (Pi). However, the difficulty to define clear relationships with oil price for optimizing the marketing strategies can be due to the olive sector European policy and to the complex international olive oil market situation. The occurrence of unharvested trees was increased and the reduction in agricultural operations as well as non-harvesting could become more widespread above all in traditional extensive systems.

In the present study, bio-meteorological models for predicting olive-crop production in the southern Iberian Peninsula were developed. These covered a 16-year period: 1994-2009. The forecasting models were constructed using the partial least-squares regression method, taking the annual olive yield as the dependent variable, and both aerobiological and meteorological parameters as the independent variables. Two regression models were built for the prediction of crop production prior to the final harvest at two different times of the year: July and November. The percentage variance explained by the models was between 83% and 93%. Through these forecasting models, the main factors that influence olive-crop yield were identified. Pollen index and accumulated precipitation, especially as rain recorded during the pre-flowering months, were the most important parameters for providing an explanation of fluctuations in fruit production. The temperature recorded during the two months preceding budburst was another important variable, which showed positive effects on the final yield. The July model that provides accurate predictions of fruit production eight months prior to the final harvest is proposed as an optimal model to forecast fruit produced by olive trees in western Mediterranean areas.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the viability and longevity of the pollen grains of the olive cultivar ‘Picual’, the most extensive and important olive cultivar in the Iberian Peninsula. Over a 3-year period (2007–2009), viability of the pollen grains of 15 ‘Picual’ cultivar trees was measured using the Fluorochromatic Reaction (FCR). These olive trees were distributed along different altitudinal areas of the province of Jaen (southeast Iberian Peninsula). The percentages of viability did not show any geographical variability. In general, the percentage of viability did not vary from one year to another. With an average value of 49%, the viability of the pollen in the cultivar ‘Picual’ could be classified as medium-range. ‘Picual’ pollen grains have the highest viability after 24 hours of anther dehiscence. Viability declines rapidly with time. The longevity of the pollen grains was about seven days. The first three days after anthesis are the most important for fertilisation. A rapid decline in pollen viability may considerably reduce effective fertilisation and could negatively influence fruit production. For this reason, these findings should be considered for the improvement of olive fruit yields.

The main characteristics of the heat accumulation period and the possible existence of different types of biological response to the environment in different populations of olive through the Mediterranean region have been evaluated. Chilling curves to determine the start date of the heat accumulation period were constructed and evaluated. The results allow us to conclude that the northern olive populations have the greatest heat requirements for the development of their floral buds, and they need a period of time longer than olives in others areas to completely satisfy their biothermic requirements. The olive trees located in the warmest winter areas have a faster transition from endogenous to exogenous inhibition once the peak of chilling is met, and they show more rapid floral development. The lower heat requirements are due to better adaptation to warmer regions. Both the threshold temperature and the peak of flowering date are closely related to latitude. Different types of biological responses of olives to the environment were found. The adaptive capacity shown by the olive tree should be considered as a useful tool with which to study the effects of global climatic change on agro-ecosystems.

The physiological stress caused by particular pollution conditions can result in phenological phase shifts that can include a block in vegetative or reproductive development. The main aim of the present study was to determine and analyse the mean development trends of some winter deciduous species in comparison to the climate tendencies, as calculated within two phenological gardens in the Arezzo and Perugia areas of central Italy. Moreover, a phenological comparison between the guide species of the two phenological gardens, one located in an industrial area, and the other in a farming area, was carried out. The phenological evidences showed significant phase displacements for the common guide species present in both the gardens which however may be explained by the meteorological performances above all in the Perugia not polluted area. In these terms, there were no evident phenological effects on the plants from the industrial area pollutants in the Arezzo garden. Moreover, also the temperature reduction tendencies at the end of spring not influenced significantly the phenological behaviours of the plant species not inducing them toward a predictable delay of reproductive and adult leaves phases.

The possible impact of altitude and the related microclimatic conditions on the total production of fruiting branches, inflorescences, flowers and pollen grains of olive trees Olea europaea was analysed. A total of 90 Picual cultivar trees, the most extensive olive cultivar in the Iberian Peninsula, were studied for a three-year period (2007–2009). The study shows that production of flowers and pollen grains in a cultivar of the olive tree varies according to the microclimate. Our study also indicates that the olive trees frequently can have up to half a million flowers per tree. Moreover, the total flower production differs between years and study areas. In the Picual cultivar, the average production of pollen grains per anther is usually more than 60 000 grains. The total production of pollen per tree is around 72 000 million on average. The most favourable microclimatic conditions for reproduction in olive trees are found in years and olive growing areas with low temperature and high precipita...

Aerobiological monitoring of Olea europaea L. is of great interest in the Mediterranean basin because olive pollen is one of the most represented pollen types of the airborne spectrum for the Mediterranean region, and olive pollen is considered one of the major cause of pollinosis in this region. The main aim of this study was to develop an airborne-pollen map based on the Pollen Index across a 4-year period (2008-2011), to provide a continuous geographic map for pollen intensity that will have practical applications from the agronomical and allergological points of view. For this purpose, the main predictor variable was an index based on the distribution and abundance of potential sources of pollen emission, including intrinsic information about the general atmospheric patterns of pollen dispersal. In addition, meteorological variables were included in the modeling, together with spatial interpolation, to allow the definition of a spatial model of the Pollen Index from the main olive cultivation areas in the Mediterranean region. The results show marked differences with respect to the dispersal patterns associated to the altitudinal gradient. The findings indicate that areas located at an altitude above 300ma.s.l. receive greater amounts of olive pollen from shorter-distance pollen sources (maximum influence, 27km) with respect to areas lower than 300ma.s.l. (maximum influence, 59km).

The possible existence of altitudinal fluctuations in the seasonal behaviour of the olive pollen emission was studied. Three pollen volumetric samplers distributed in olive groves all over the altitudinal cliseries of the province of Jaen (south-east Spain) were used. Pollen emission data were recorded during a 3-year period (2007–2009). This research has revealed the effect of altitude on consecutive olive pollen season in the province of Jaen. The first pollen grains were detected in the olive growing areas located within the area of the Guadalquivir River, where are found the lowest levels of altitude into the province. A notable delay in the pollination season of the olive groves located at higher altitudes was observed. Geographical fluctuations on both daily pollen concentrations and number of critical days were also detected. Accumulated variables of temperature and precipitation since the start of the pre-flowering period have been shown to be two of the main factors affecting olive pollen levels. The fluctuations observed in the olive pollen season may similarly occur in the case of other allergenic plant species such as cypress (Cupressaceae), plane tree (Platanaceae) or grasses (Poaceae). Furthermore, and for the clinical consequences of the findings presented in this study, we believe that it would be advisable to install a micro-aerobiological network permanently in the province of Jaen.

Phenological and aerobiological studies provide important information regarding the reproductive biology of cultivated species such as the olive. This article presents the results of an exploratory study of the floral phenology of Olea europaea L. at different altitudes in Jaen province (SE Spain) and an analysis of the main meteorological factors affecting flowering. As well, this study aimed to detect the relationship between phenology and olive pollen emission as a means of interpreting Olea pollen curves in the city of Jaen. Phenological observations were performed on olive trees at six sites, each at different altitudes and distributed over the whole area of olive cultivation in the province. Pollen data were obtained using a Hirst-type volumetric spore trap located within the city of Jaen. Phenological and aerobiological data were recorded in 2006 and 2007. This study shows that the chronology of the start of the flowering period depends on altitude. Statistical analyses indicate that the temperature, humidity, cumulative rainfall and cumulative solar radiation are the meteorological parameters that most affect olive floral phenology. The pollen season in Jaen generally lasts from May to June, with an annual total emission of over 40,000 pollen grains, the highest annual level of olive pollen emission in the world. The airborne pollen concentrations recorded in the city of Jaen are above all influenced by the olive groves located in the Guadalquivir valley.

The aim of the present study was to develop pheno-meteorological models to explain and forecast the main olive flowering phenological phases within the Mediterranean basin, across a latitudinal and longitudinal gradient that includes Tunisia, Spain, and Italy. To analyze the aerobiological sampling points, study periods from 13 years (1999-2011) to 19 years (1993-2011) were used. The forecasting models were constructed using partial least-squares regression, considering both the flowering start and full-flowering dates as dependent variables. The percentages of variance explained by the full-flowering models (mean 84 %) were greater than those explained by the flowering start models (mean 77 %). Moreover, given the time lag from the North African areas to the central Mediterranean areas in the main olive flowering dates, the regional full-flowering predictive models are proposed as the most useful to improve the knowledge of the influence of climate on the olive tree floral phenology. The meteorological parameters related to the previous autumn and both the winter and the spring seasons, and above all the temperatures, regulate the reproductive phenology of olive trees in the Mediterranean area. The mean anticipation of flowering start and full flowering for the future period from 2081 to 2100 was estimated at 10 and 12 days, respectively. One question can be raised: Will the olive trees located in the warmest areas be northward displaced or will they be able to adapt their physiology in response to the higher temperatures? The present study can be considered as an approach to design more detailed future bioclimate research.

The study of microorganisms and biological particulate matter that transport passively through air is very important for an understanding of the real quality of air. Such monitoring is essential in several specific areas, such as public health, allergy studies, agronomy, indoor and outdoor conservation, and climate-change impact studies. Choosing the suitable monitoring method is an important step in aerobiological studies, so as to obtain reliable airborne data. In this study, we compare olive pollen data from two of the main air traps used in aerobiology, the Hirst and Cour air samplers, at three Tunisian sampling points, for 2009 to 2011. Moreover, a downscaling method to perform daily Cour air sampler data estimates is designed. While Hirst air samplers can offer daily, and even bi-hourly data, Cour air samplers provide data for longer discrete sampling periods, which limits their usefulness for daily monitoring. Higher quantities of olive pollen capture were generally detected for the Hirst air sampler, and a downscaling method that is developed in this study is used to model these differences. The effectiveness of this downscaling method is demonstrated, which allows the potential use of Cour air sampler data series. These results improve the information that new Cour data and, importantly, historical Cour databases can provide for the understanding of phenological dates, airborne pollination curves, and allergenicity levels of air.

International audience; Olive oil is a major economic resource of the Mediterranean region. Olive crop management can be improved by models that forecast the variable reproductive biology of olive tree. However, the processes controlling olive harvest are complex on large scales. Here, we study the parameters that influence olive fruit production for developing accurate forecasting models. Seventeen aerobiological sampling points have monitored olive pollen grains in Spain, Italy and Tunisia from 1993 to 2012. Six crop models have been developed at two provinces and country scales. The modelling has been done in two steps: (1) typification and (2) modelling by partial least square regression. Results show that higher pollen indexes and water availability during spring are related to an increase of final fruit production in all the studied area. Higher pollen indexes are also positively correlated with air temperature during early spring and autumn. Furthermore, a decrease of fruit production is related with increasing air temperature during winter and summer. To conclude, we have designed accurate models that allow accurate predictions of olive production.