1. Enhanced Net Community Production With Sea Ice Loss in the Western Arctic Ocean Uncovered by Machine‐Learning‐Based Mapping.
- Author
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Zhou, Tianyu, Li, Yun, Ouyang, Zhangxian, Cai, Wei‐Jun, and Ji, Rubao
- Subjects
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MACHINE learning , *SEAWATER , *SEA ice , *RANDOM forest algorithms , *LEARNING communities , *PRODUCTION increases - Abstract
In the Arctic Ocean (AO), net community production (NCP $NCP$) has displayed spatially heterogeneous responses to sea ice reduction and associated environmental changes. Using a random forest machine learning model trained with >42,000 in situ measurements and concurrent, collocated environmental predictors, we reconstructed 19 years of 8‐day, 6‐km NCP $NCP$ maps. During 2015–2021, the integrated NCP $NCP$ between late‐May and early‐September (NCPint ${}_{\mathit{int}}NCP$) over the western AO was 10.95±3.30TgC $10.95\pm 3.30\,\text{Tg}\,\mathrm{C}$ per year, with interannual variations positively tracking open water area. While the relationship between NCPint ${}_{\mathit{int}}NCP$ and open water area was quasi‐linear at high latitudes, strong nonlinearity was detected on the inflow shelf. The nonlinearity highlights that the NCPint ${}_{\mathit{int}}NCP$ increase resulted from area gain could be compounded by sea‐ice loss induced ecosystem adjustments. Additional retrospective analysis for 2003–2014 suggests a potential long‐term increase of export production and efficiency in the western AO with sea ice loss. Plain Language Summary: Net community production (NCP $NCP$) refers to the portion of phytoplankton production that remains unused by consumers and can be exported to the deeper part of the ocean. In the western Arctic Ocean (AO), NCP $NCP$ patterns are uneven due to complex interactions between the physical environment and the ecosystem. In this study, we developed a machine learning model of NCP $NCP$ in the western AO. The model used publicly available underway measurements and the associated environmental variables to create long‐term, high‐resolution maps of NCP $NCP$. For the period of 2015–2021, we found that the integrated NCP $NCP$ between late‐May and early‐September (NCPint ${}_{\mathit{int}}NCP$) was 10.95±3.30TgC $10.95\pm 3.30\,\text{Tg}\,\mathrm{C}$ per year in the western AO. NCPint ${}_{\mathit{int}}NCP$ varied from year to year and was higher when the open water area was larger. Notably, on the inflow shelf, NCPint ${}_{\mathit{int}}NCP$ increased at a faster rate than a linear relationship would suggest, due to both area expansion and ecosystem adjustments induced by sea ice loss. Our findings indicate that with long‐term sea ice loss, the western AO is likely to export more phytoplankton production to deeper ocean waters. Key Points: A multiyear, gap‐free net community production (NCP $NCP$) product was constructed using a machine learning model for the western Arctic OceanSeasonally and regionally integrated NCP $NCP$ responded to sea ice loss quasi‐linearly at high latitudes but nonlinearly on the inflow shelfCompared with the 2010s, carbon export production has increased in recent years, accompanying sea ice loss in the western Arctic Ocean [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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