66 results on '"Expert estimates"'
Search Results
2. On the Question of Modifying Membership Functions
- Author
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Barchev, Nickolay, Sudakov, Vladimir, Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series Editor, Pal, Nikhil R., Advisory Editor, Bello Perez, Rafael, Advisory Editor, Corchado, Emilio S., Advisory Editor, Hagras, Hani, Advisory Editor, Kóczy, László T., Advisory Editor, Kreinovich, Vladik, Advisory Editor, Lin, Chin-Teng, Advisory Editor, Lu, Jie, Advisory Editor, Melin, Patricia, Advisory Editor, Nedjah, Nadia, Advisory Editor, Nguyen, Ngoc Thanh, Advisory Editor, Wang, Jun, Advisory Editor, Silhavy, Radek, editor, Silhavy, Petr, editor, and Prokopova, Zdenka, editor
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. Construction of the Job Duration Distribution in Network Models for a Set of Fuzzy Expert Estimates
- Author
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Samokhvalov, Yuri, Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series Editor, Pal, Nikhil R., Advisory Editor, Bello Perez, Rafael, Advisory Editor, Corchado, Emilio S., Advisory Editor, Hagras, Hani, Advisory Editor, Kóczy, László T., Advisory Editor, Kreinovich, Vladik, Advisory Editor, Lin, Chin-Teng, Advisory Editor, Lu, Jie, Advisory Editor, Melin, Patricia, Advisory Editor, Nedjah, Nadia, Advisory Editor, Nguyen, Ngoc Thanh, Advisory Editor, Wang, Jun, Advisory Editor, Lytvynenko, Volodymyr, editor, Babichev, Sergii, editor, Wójcik, Waldemar, editor, Vynokurova, Olena, editor, Vyshemyrskaya, Svetlana, editor, and Radetskaya, Svetlana, editor
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. How to Take Expert Uncertainty into Account: Economic Approach Illustrated by Pavement Engineering Applications
- Author
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Rodriguez Velasquez, Edgar Daniel, Chang Albitres, Carlos M., Nguyen, Thach Ngoc, Kosheleva, Olga, Kreinovich, Vladik, Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series Editor, Kreinovich, Vladik, editor, and Sriboonchitta, Songsak, editor
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
5. Diagnostics of the technical condition of electric network equipment based on fuzzy expert estimates
- Author
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Sergey Kokin, Vadim Manusov, Javod Ahyoev, Stepan Dmitriev, Alexander Tavlintsev, and Murodbek Safaraliev
- Subjects
Electric power ,Electrical equipment of electric power systems ,Technical diagnostics ,Current state ,Expert estimates ,Degree of consistency ,Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering ,TK1-9971 - Abstract
The paper describes a new possible method of diagnostics of the current technical condition of equipment using a mathematical model based on fuzzy expert estimates and the theory of fuzzy sets. The specifics of the task is determined mainly by the type of the obtained estimates, namely: causal relationships between the controlled parameters of the transformer equipment and defects that could entail their change and the possibility of further operation of the facility. At the same time, attention is paid to the problem of the degree of consistency of expert opinions that affects the quality of the assessment of the current technical condition of the studied object. The paper provides a comparative analysis of the arithmetic mean estimates and median estimates of the consistency of expert opinions. It is shown that the significant drawback of the arithmetic mean approach is its instability towards outliers of individual opinions moving the resulting value under the influence of the “dissident expert opinions”. On the other hand, the median estimate is free of such shortage; it is more outlier-resistant and simply discards a part of radically outlying expert opinions. For the first time, the Kemeny median has been used for technical diagnostics. Kemeny median is based on the introduction of a metric to the set of expert opinions, and axiomatic introduction of the distance between them. Also, the paper formulates a criterion on how to determine the optimal number of experts in the group.
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
6. ЙМОВІРНІСНЕ МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ОПЕРАЦІЙНИХ РИ...
- Author
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Левенчук, Л. Б., Гуськова, В. Г., and Бідюк, П. І.
- Abstract
Background. Operational risks are inherent to all types of human activity, including industrial production, transport, financial services, etc. Risks of this kind are characterized by many uncertainties, incompleteness and low data quality, that complicate prediction and assessment. To perform modelling of the process associated with operational risk it is necessary to carry out a proper data processing as well as identification, taking into consideration possible uncertainties. The probabilistic approach to modelling is very helpful in solving the problems. Objective. The purpose of the paper is to make brief overview of probabilistic data analysis methods designed to build mathematical models of operational risks. To develop a new probabilistic model in the form of a Bayesian network to describe formally the operational risk of fraud associated with actuarial processes. Methods. The basic methodology used for data and expert estimates processing are Bayesian data analysis techniques that help to construct probabilistic models in the form of Bayesian networks. Results. The proposed modelling method was applied to constructing model of operational risk, more specifically risk of fraud in actuarial sphere. To construct the model the problem was analysed, a set of variables was selected, and prior estimates for conditional probabilities were estimated. The final model was constructed using the modelling system GeNIe. The model functioning was demonstrated using illustrative example. Conclusions. It was shown that modelling, estimating and forecasting financial and other types of risks is important practical problem that can be solved using probabilistic approach, namely Bayesian methodology that helps to identify and take into consideration possible uncertainties of data and expert estimates. The operational risk model constructed using the methodology illustrates the possibilities of application the Bayesian techniques to solving the problems mentioned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2021
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- View/download PDF
7. Maximum Entropy Beyond Selecting Probability Distributions
- Author
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Nguyen, Thach N., Kosheleva, Olga, Kreinovich, Vladik, Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series editor, Anh, Ly H., editor, Dong, Le Si, editor, Kreinovich, Vladik, editor, and Thach, Nguyen Ngoc, editor
- Published
- 2018
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8. The Formation of the Optimal Composition of Multi-Agent System
- Author
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Mutovkina, N. Yu., Kuznetsov, V. N., Klyushin, A. Yu., Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series editor, Pal, Nikhil R., Advisory editor, Bello Perez, Rafael, Advisory editor, Corchado, Emilio S., Advisory editor, Hagras, Hani, Advisory editor, Kóczy, László T., Advisory editor, Kreinovich, Vladik, Advisory editor, Lin, Chin-Teng, Advisory editor, Lu, Jie, Advisory editor, Melin, Patricia, Advisory editor, Nedjah, Nadia, Advisory editor, Nguyen, Ngoc Thanh, Advisory editor, Wang, Jun, Advisory editor, Hu, Zhengbing, editor, Petoukhov, Sergey, editor, and He, Matthew, editor
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Fuzzy Complex Assessment of Activities of the Agent in Multi-Agent System
- Author
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Mutovkina, N. Yu., Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series editor, Pal, Nikhil R., Advisory editor, Bello Perez, Rafael, Advisory editor, Corchado, Emilio S., Advisory editor, Hagras, Hani, Advisory editor, Kóczy, László T., Advisory editor, Kreinovich, Vladik, Advisory editor, Lin, Chin-Teng, Advisory editor, Lu, Jie, Advisory editor, Melin, Patricia, Advisory editor, Nedjah, Nadia, Advisory editor, Nguyen, Ngoc Thanh, Advisory editor, Wang, Jun, Advisory editor, Hu, Zhengbing, editor, Petoukhov, Sergey, editor, and He, Matthew, editor
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
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10. Measurement by the method of rating
- Author
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V. M. Romanchak
- Subjects
expert estimates ,rating ,fechner's law ,stevens law ,utility function ,Electronic computers. Computer science ,QA75.5-76.95 - Abstract
The definition of rating is given and mathematical model of finding the values of object quantity by means of rating is specified. With the help of the rating it is possible to consider both objective and subjective measurements from a single point of view. If, as example, some sequence of objects is sorted by a varying uniformly magnitude an object number in the sequence could be considered as the rating.The axiomatic definition of the rating is based on a mathematical model of measurement. The formalization of the process of measuring an arbitrary value begins with a clarification of the concept of measurement. During the measurement, the sizes of objects are compared, the matrix of paired comparisons is axiomatically determined, on the basis of this matrix the rating is located. Knowing the rating you can find the value. Then by means of a rating the laws of Fechner and Stevens are analyzed. The equivalence of Fechner and Stevens laws is a confirmation of the algorithm for determining the values of the measured value based on the rating.The subjective method of finding the rating requires a special method of checking the reliability of the information received. Verification of the reliability of the subjective measurement is proposed to perform the method of alternatives. In the alternatives method, each object is compared twice, and different objects are selected as the object for comparison. The criterion of reliability of subjective measurement is the statistical coincidence of rating values obtained by alternative methods of comparison.
- Published
- 2019
11. A Model of Control of Expert Estimates Consistency in Distributed Group Expertise
- Author
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Podvesovskii, Aleksandr, Mikhaleva, Oksana, Averchenkov, Vladimir, Reutov, Aleksandr, Potapov, Leonid, Diniz Junqueira Barbosa, Simone, Series editor, Chen, Phoebe, Series editor, Du, Xiaoyong, Series editor, Filipe, Joaquim, Series editor, Kotenko, Igor, Series editor, Liu, Ting, Series editor, Sivalingam, Krishna M., Series editor, Washio, Takashi, Series editor, Kravets, Alla, editor, Shcherbakov, Maxim, editor, Kultsova, Marina, editor, and Groumpos, Peter, editor
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
12. Оценка возможности и целесообразности создания строительного РТК укладки газобетонных блоков.
- Author
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Лагута, В. С., Калиниченко, С. В., and Кузнецов, В. Э.
- Subjects
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ENGINEERING design , *WEB design , *CIVIL engineering , *BUSINESS planning , *SYSTEMS availability - Abstract
Introduction. Development of construction technologies and materials entails the use of larger and heavier aercrete blocks. Hence, it promotes construction industry automation through the use of robotic systems. Due to considerable costs of development, production and operation of robotic systems capable of substituting human workers at a construction site, thorough substantiation of their efficiency (or investment appeal) is required. It encompasses the calculation of total costs and the timing of its development and implementation, since no universal comprehensive solutions are available now.Materials and methods. The co-authors have summarized practical design and engineering problems that may accompany the development of novel machinery and preparation of investment projects towards development of a construction robotic system (CRS) designated for aircrete block laying in the course of construction of buildings and structures. Two groups of experts were involved, Group One had civil engineers and Group Two had designers of robotic and mechatronic systems. Methods of expert evaluations and mathematical statistics were used; the co-authors also addressed specialized Internet websites and publications on design and engineering solutions. Results. A list of criteria describing the performance of a robotic system was made with a focus on most important factors. The co-authors identified a set of parameters whose availability in a robotic system ensures ideal blockwork. The co-authors have developed a technical specification for a robotic system, identified its cost and developed an implementation schedule. Conclusions. A formalized description of the future CRS, designated for construction purposes, is provided for the period of concept development. The co-authors also provided a reliable assessment of potential costs and schedules at the problem statement stage (a feasibility study), as it is important for the assessment of implementability of investment processes (a business plan) in terms of making a decision to initiate project implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
13. Application of a Priori and a Posteriori Estimate on Risk Assessment
- Author
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Lenka Sivakova, Anna Zubkova, and Witalis Pellowski
- Subjects
expert estimates ,safety ,security ,mathematical approach ,Transportation and communications ,HE1-9990 ,Science ,Transportation engineering ,TA1001-1280 - Abstract
The problem of setting the values and interconnections between elements of the models in the safety, protection and security field, appears as the biggest obstacle in taking crisis management decisions. The article attempts to represent a mathematical approach to modify the expected values and interconnections that can occur in the models describing the protected system in order to minimize errors caused by subjectivity. Here presented procedures are described in the examples of their potential use. The main idea is to focus on improving estimates for better response to reality, then to find new estimates, since those would still be weighed down by the subjectivity caused errors. Based on this premise this article attempts to characterize application of mathematical methods on minimizing the subjectivity caused errors in the models in risk assessment.
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- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
14. The Criteria for the Selection of Wells for Hydraulic Fracturing
- Author
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O.V. Salimov, A.V. Nasybullin, R.Z. Sakhabutdinov, and V.G. Salimov
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well selection criteria ,expert estimates ,hydraulic fracturing ,Geology ,QE1-996.5 - Abstract
Various methods of selection of wells for hydraulic fracturing are analyzed. It is established that all methods can be divided into three large groups: criteria in the table form of boundary values of parameters, statistical methods of pattern recognition, methods of engineering calculation. The complication or use of additional parameters only leads to a reduction in the number of wells at which hydraulic fracturing is possible. It is shown that the use of reservoir properties of rocks, which are already used by hydraulic fracturing simulators, is not practicable as selection criteria. It is required to include in the selection criteria only those additional factors on which the effectiveness of hydraulic fracturing depends directly.
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- 2017
- Full Text
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15. RANKING RUSSIAN UNIVERSITIES: HOW TO MEASURE?
- Author
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Maria V. Seroshtan and Boris M. Vladimirskiy
- Subjects
ранжирование университетов ,векторное представление ,экспертные оценки ,вектор приоритетов ,universities ranking ,vector representation ,expert estimates ,priority vector ,Education - Abstract
The authors propose to use vector representation of university areas of activities for ranking universities. Two novel indices reflecting UN experts’ recommendations are introduced. Based on expert estimates, a priority vector of weights enables to represent the university activity.
- Published
- 2016
16. Algorithms of Ranking and Classification of Software Systems Elements
- Author
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Kosmacheva, Irina, Kvyatkovskaya, Irina, Sibikina, Irina, Lezhnina, Yuliya, Junqueira Barbosa, Simone Diniz, Series editor, Chen, Phoebe, Series editor, Cuzzocrea, Alfredo, Series editor, Du, Xiaoyong, Series editor, Filipe, Joaquim, Series editor, Kara, Orhun, Series editor, Kotenko, Igor, Series editor, Sivalingam, Krishna M., Series editor, Ślęzak, Dominik, Series editor, Washio, Takashi, Series editor, Yang, Xiaokang, Series editor, Kravets, Alla, editor, Shcherbakov, Maxim, editor, Kultsova, Marina, editor, and Iijima, Tadashi, editor
- Published
- 2014
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
17. Why the "real" numbers on Roma are fictitious: Revisiting practices of ethnic quantification.
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ETHNIC identity of Romanies , *ETHNOLOGY , *SOCIAL surveys - Abstract
This article scrutinizes the administrative and scientific practices by which the Gypsy/Roma category has been historically constructed in Europe, particularly in Central and South Eastern Europe. Censuses, police-led inquiries, social surveys and expert estimates made the 'Roma' category appear objective, making invisible the multiple technical and political decisions behind their interpretations. This paper examines the technologies behind the production of ethnic categories and that of Roma in particular: namely, guidelines and manuals for field workers, recruitment and census campaigns, consent forms, questionnaires, data processing, basic assumptions and interpretation of data. While expert networks give objectivity and flexibility to the collection and circulation of data, the labour involved in crafting ethnic statistics often remains obscure. This paper follows the historical departures and continuities of Roma categorization from the 18th century to present times. The category 'Roma' was produced and reproduced through quantification practices with the justification that ethnic data (or categorization) would help solve social problems and contribute to Roma integration. The technical literature reviewed in this paper and the auto-ethnographic analysis shed light on the machinery of ethnic categorization, and allows us to assess the impact of various kinds of labour upon this categorization: from the more visible work performed by ethnopolitical entrepreneurs and scholars – to the relatively invisible contributions of field workers, administrators and census takers. This article calls for a critical scrutiny of how Roma ethnicity is crafted through practices of ethnic quantification and encourages researchers to use methodological prudence and more self-reflection in their own academic practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
18. A Simplified Algorithm for Processing the Results of Paired Comparisons.
- Author
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Sysoev, Yu. S.
- Subjects
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ALGORITHMS , *EIGENVECTORS , *PRINCIPAL components analysis , *ESTIMATION theory , *MATHEMATICAL statistics - Abstract
An algorithm for processing the results of paired comparisons in order to estimate the quality of alternatives is proposed. It is shown that through the use of the new algorithm it is possible to abandon the traditional method, which employs one of the eigenvectors of the matrix of paired comparisons for these purposes. By means of the new algorithm, additional constraints in ranking alternatives by the method of paired comparisons may be eliminated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
19. Conclusions
- Author
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Pownuk, Andrew, Kreinovich, Vladik, Kacprzyk, Janusz, Series Editor, Pownuk, Andrew, and Kreinovich, Vladik
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
20. APPLICATION OF A PRIORI AND A POSTERIORI ESTIMATE ON RISK ASSESSMENT.
- Author
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Sivakova, Lenka, Zubkova, Anna, and Piellowski, Witalis
- Subjects
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RISK assessment , *CRISIS management , *MATHEMATICAL models , *SUBJECTIVITY , *ESTIMATION theory - Abstract
The problem of setting the values and interconnections between elements of the models in the safety, protection and security field, appears as the biggest obstacle in taking crisis management decisions. The article attempts to represent a mathematical approach to modify the expected values and interconnections that can occur in the models describing the protected system in order to minimize errors caused by subjectivity. Here presented procedures are described in the examples of their potential use. The main idea is to focus on improving estimates for better response to reality, then to find new estimates, since those would still be weighed down by the subjectivity caused errors. Based on this premise this article attempts to characterize application of mathematical methods on minimizing the subjectivity caused errors in the models in risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
21. Selection Criteria For Evaluating Contractors Of Cultural Heritage Objects.
- Author
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Morkūnaitė, Žydrūnė, Podvezko, Valentinas, and Kutut, Vladislavas
- Subjects
CULTURAL property ,HISTORIC buildings ,CONSTRUCTION materials ,ANALYTIC hierarchy process ,CONSTRUCTION projects - Abstract
Cultural heritage buildings are very important footprints of our history. Cultural heritage’s performance requires more of responsibility and experience, careful attention, knowledge of building materials and structure, teamwork and qualified employee. The inappropriate contractor’s selection could induce claims, disputes, failures, litigation, low-quality work, and increased costs for project management and performance. This study proposes a quantitative criteria selection for heritage’s contractor selection. This paper provides criteria for selecting contractors, reviews current situation of contractor selection in Lithuania, and determines the evaluation criteria of the contractor selection for heritage buildings. This study applies the expert evaluation and agreement of their estimates and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Making an expertise – based decision, it is necessary to determine the concordance degree of expert evaluation. The concordance coefficient can be calculated only if the considered criteria are ranked. The AHP method was applied to quantitative evaluation of the criteria significance (weight). The AHP method determines the agreement of estimates provided by each expert separately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
22. Development of a construction robotic system designated for aircrete block laying: feasibility and expediency assessment
- Author
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Viktor S. Laguta, Vladimir E. Kuznecov, and Sergei V. Kalinichenko
- Subjects
Engineering ,business.industry ,block laying ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,020101 civil engineering ,lcsh:HD9715-9717.5 ,02 engineering and technology ,robotic construction system ,expert estimates ,expert examination ,Laying ,development cost assessment ,decision making ,0201 civil engineering ,Robotic systems ,lcsh:Construction industry ,Block (telecommunications) ,021105 building & construction ,lcsh:Architecture ,business ,Computer hardware ,lcsh:NA1-9428 - Abstract
Introduction. Development of construction technologies and materials entails the use of larger and heavier aercrete blocks. Hence, it promotes construction industry automation through the use of robotic systems. Due to considerable costs of development, production and operation of robotic systems capable of substituting human workers at a construction site, thorough substantiation of their efficiency (or investment appeal) is required. It encompasses the calculation of total costs and the timing of its development and implementation, since no universal comprehensive solutions are available now. Materials and methods. The co-authors have summarized practical design and engineering problems that may accompany the development of novel machinery and preparation of investment projects towards development of a construction robotic system (CRS) designated for aircrete block laying in the course of construction of buildings and structures. Two groups of experts were involved, Group One had civil engineers and Group Two had designers of robotic and mechatronic systems. Methods of expert evaluations and mathematical statistics were used; the co-authors also addressed specialized Internet websites and publications on design and engineering solutions. Results. A list of criteria describing the performance of a robotic system was made with a focus on most important factors. The co-authors identified a set of parameters whose availability in a robotic system ensures ideal blockwork. The co-authors have developed a technical specification for a robotic system, identified its cost and developed an implementation schedule. Conclusions. A formalized description of the future CRS, designated for construction purposes, is provided for the period of concept development. The co-authors also provided a reliable assessment of potential costs and schedules at the problem statement stage (a feasibility study), as it is important for the assessment of implementability of investment processes (a business plan) in terms of making a decision to initiate project implementation.
- Published
- 2020
23. Ranking of Transport Network Development Projects in the Sverdlovsk Railroad Area Based on Fuzzy Logic
- Author
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Petrov, M. B., Serkov, L. A., and Zavyalova, К. А.
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EXPERT ESTIMATES ,专家评估 ,Public Administration ,МНОГОКРИТЕРИАЛЬНОСТЬ ,货运流量 ,多标 准 ,Geography, Planning and Development ,MULTICRITERIA ,САНКЦИОННОЕ ДАВЛЕНИЕ ,ЭКСПЕРТНЫЕ ОЦЕНКИ ,SANCTIONS PRESSURE ,ТРАНСПОРТНАЯ ЖЕЛЕЗНОДОРОЖНАЯ СЕТЬ ,ИНФРАСТРУКТУРНЫЕ ПРОЕКТЫ ,基础设施项目 ,运输铁路网 ,ГРУЗОПОТОКИ ,模糊理论 ,制裁压力 ,TRANSPORT RAILWAY NETWORK ,FUZZY SETS ,General Economics, Econometrics and Finance ,FREIGHT FLOWS ,INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS ,НЕЧЕТКИЕ МНОЖЕСТВА - Abstract
Received September 5, 2022; accepted November 11, 2022. Дата поступления 5 сентября 2022 г.; дата принятия к печати 11 ноября 2022 г. Due to the turbulence of economic processes in the period of sanctions pressure on the economy, decisions should be made, effective, first of all, from a national position. For this purpose, it is necessary to justify them using multi-criteria and all available information, which at the initial stages is fundamentally incomplete, insufficiently reliable and sometimes weakly formalized. In such cases, it is advisable to use special methods to assess the decisions made in conditions of uncertainty, in particular methods of fuzzy logic and mathematics. Purpose of the study. The study is aimed at assessing the order of priority of transport rail support on the investigated most important in the federal and regional scale main lines by including the most significant technological and economic criteria, reflecting the nationwide priority. Data and Methods. To compare different methods of priority construction of the main lines of railway lines, we used the procedure of fuzzy multi-criteria analysis of the projects. The assumed priorities of transport rail support are based on four trunk line projects: the Middle Urals Latitudinal Railway on the N-Tagil – Perm section; the Troitsko-Pechorsk – Ivdel section; the Perm – Chernushka section; the Ust – Aha – Uray – Khanty-Mansiysk – Salym section. Results. The paper proves the possibility of applying the approach based on fuzzy logic to the analysis of economic processes in the period of shocks to the economy, caused, in particular, by the introduction of sanctions from unfriendly countries. The estimated priority of transport rail support on the four projects of the most important trunk lines is assessed. Conclusions. With the help of fuzzy logic methods, it is possible to find compromise options that satisfy the various interests of those affecting the decisions, regardless of the structural organization of the backbone industries, one of which is undoubtedly the transport industry. Актуальность. В связи с турбулентностью экономических процессов в период санкционного давления на экономику должны приниматься решения, эффективные, в первую очередь, с общегосударственных позиций. Для этого необходимо их обоснование с учетом многокритериальности и всей доступной информации, которая на первоначальных стадиях обладает принципиальной неполнотой, недостаточной достоверностью и подчас слабой степенью ее формализации. В таких случаях целесообразно применение специальных методов, позволяющих оценивать принимаемые решения в условиях неопределенности, в частности методов нечеткой логики и математики. Цель исследования заключается в оценке очередности транспортного железнодорожного обеспечения на исследуемых наиболее важных в федеральном и региональном масштабе магистральных направлениях за счет включения наиболее значимых технологических и экономических критериев, отражающих общегосударственный приоритет. Данные и методы. Для сравнения различных способов очередности сооружений магистральных направлений железнодорожных линий использовалась процедура нечеткого многокритериального анализа проектов. Предполагаемые очередности транспортного железнодорожного обеспечения основаны на четырех проектах магистральных направлений: среднеуральский широтный ход (СУШХ) на участке Н-Тагил – Пермь; участок Троицко-Печорск – Ивдель; участок Пермь – Чернушка; участок Усть – Аха – Урай – Ханты- Мансийск – Салым. Результаты исследования. Доказана возможность применения подхода на основе нечеткой логики к анализу экономических процессов в период шоковых воздействий на экономику, обусловленных, в частности, введением санкций со стороны недружественных стран. Оценена предполагаемая очередность транспортного железнодорожного обеспечения на четырех проектах наиболее важных магистральных направлений. Выводы. С помощью методов нечеткой логики возможно нахождение компромиссных вариантов, удовлетворяющих различным интересам лиц, влияющих на принимаемые решения независимо от структурной организации системообразующих отраслей, одной из которых несомненно является транспортная отрасль. 现实性:由于制裁压力经济进程面临动荡,必须首先从国家层面做出有效 决策。这就要求在考虑到多标准和所有可用信息的情况下对其进行论证。 而这些信息在初始阶段基本上是不完整、不够可靠、有时还很不正式的。 研究目标:文章通过纳入反映国家优先事项的最重要技术和经济标准, 来评估联邦和区域干线上运输铁路供应的优先权。数据与方法:为了比较确定铁路干线建设优先次序的不同方式,本文采 用了模糊多准则决策法。拟议的铁路运输优先项目基于四条干线:中乌 拉尔-塔吉尔-彼尔姆段;特罗伊茨克-佩乔尔斯克-伊夫德尔段;彼尔姆- 切尔努什卡段;乌斯-阿赫-乌拉伊-汉特-曼西斯克-萨雷姆段。 研究结果:在经济受到冲击期间,特别是不友好国家实行制裁所造成的 冲击期内,应用模糊逻辑分析经济进程的可能性已经得到证明。本文对 最重要干线四个项目的铁路运输优先级进行了评估。 结论:使用模糊逻辑法,有可能找到满足决策者各种利益的折衷方案。无论骨干产业的结构组织如何,运输部门都是影响决策的最重要部门之一。 This article was prepared under the approved research plan of the Institute of Economics of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences for 2022. Статья подготовлена в рамках утвержденного плана научных исследований Института экономики УрО РАН на 2022 год. 本文根據俄羅斯科學院烏拉爾 分院經濟研究所批准的 2022 年研究計劃編寫。
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- 2022
24. ВЕРОЯТНОСТНОЕ МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ОПЕРАЦИОННЫХ РИСКОВ
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операционные риски ,операційний ризик ,баєсова методологія ,expert estimates ,actuarial processes ,ймовірнісне моделювання ,Bayesian methodology ,байесовская методология ,экспертные оценки ,актуарные процессы ,актуарні процеси ,probabilistic modelling ,експертні оцінки ,вероятностное моделирование ,operational risks - Abstract
Background. Operational risks are inherent to all types of human activity, including industrial production, transport, financial services, etc. Risks of this kind are characterized by many uncertainties, incompleteness and low data quality, that complicate prediction and assessment. To perform modelling of the process associated with operational risk it is necessary to carry out a proper data processing as well as identification, taking into consideration possible uncertainties. The probabilistic approach to modelling is very helpful in solving the problems. Objective. The purpose of the paper is to make brief overview of probabilistic data analysis methods designed to build mathematical models of operational risks. To develop a new probabilistic model in the form of a Bayesian network to describe formally the operational risk of fraud associated with actuarial processes. Methods. The basic methodology used for data and expert estimates processing are Bayesian data analysis techniques that help to construct probabilistic models in the form of Bayesian networks. Results. The proposed modelling method was applied to constructing model of operational risk, more specifically risk of fraud in actuarial sphere. To construct the model the problem was analysed, a set of variables was selected, and prior estimates for conditional probabilities were estimated. The final model was constructed using the modelling system GeNIe. The model functioning was demonstrated using illustrative example. Conclusions. It was shown that modelling, estimating and forecasting financial and other types of risks is important practical problem that can be solved using probabilistic approach, namely Bayesian methodology that helps to identify and take into consideration possible uncertainties of data and expert estimates. The operational risk model constructed using the methodology illustrates the possibilities of app., Проблематика. Операционные риски присущи всем видам деятельности человека, включая промышленное производство, транспорт финансовые услуги и т.п. Риски такого типа характеризуются множеством неопределенностей, неполнотой и низким качеством данных, что усложняет прогнозирование и оценивание. Для моделирования процессов, связанных с операционными рисками, необходимо выполнить корректную обработку данных, а также идентификацию и учет возможных неопределенностей. Для решения этих задач хорошо подходит вероятностный подход. Цель исследования. Сделать краткий обзор методов вероятностного анализа данных, предназначенных для построения математических моделей операционных рисков. Разработать новую вероятностную модель в форме байесовской сети для формального описания операционного риска мошенничества, связанного с актуарными процессами. Методика реализации. Для обработки данных и экспертных оценок используются методы байесовского анализа данных, предназначенные для построения вероятностных моделей в форме байесовских сетей. Результаты исследования. Предложенный метод моделирования использован для построения модели операционного риска мошенничества, характерного для сферы страхования. Для построения модели выполнен анализ задачи, выбрано множество переменных и выполнено оценивание априорных условных вероятностей. Результирующая модель построена с помощью инструментария моделирования GeNIe. Функционирование модели продемонстрировано на примере. Выводы. Показано, что важная практическая задача моделирования, оценивания и прогнозирования операционных рисков может быть решена с помощью вероятностного подхода, в частности, байесовской методологии, которая дает возможность идентифицировать и учесть имеющиеся неопределенности данных и экспертных оценок. Построенная с помощью этой методологии модель операционного риска демонстрирует возможность применения байесовского подхода для решения упомянутых задач., Проблематика. Операційні ризики (ОР) притаманні всім видам людської діяльності, включно з промисловістю, транспортом, фінансовими послугами та ін. Ризики такого типу характеризуються множиною невизначеностей, неповнотою та низькою якістю даних, що ускладнює прогнозування й оцінювання. Для моделювання процесів, пов’язаних з ОР, необхідно виконати коректну обробку даних, а також ідентифікацію та врахування можливих невизначеностей. Для розв’язання таких задач придатний ймовірнісний підхід. Мета дослідження. Зробити короткий огляд методів ймовірнісного аналізу даних, призначених для побудови математичних моделей ОР. Розробити нову ймовірнісну модель у вигляді мережі Баєса для формального опису операційного ризику шахрайства, пов’язаного з актуарними процесами. Методика реалізації. Для обробки даних й експертних оцінок використовуються методи баєсового аналізу даних, призначені для побудови ймовірнісних моделей у формі баєсових мереж. Результати дослідження. Описано методи дослідження ОР і їх модифікації. Запропонований метод моделювання застосовано для побудови моделі ОР страхового шахрайства. Для побудови моделі проаналізовано задачу, вибрано множину змінних й оцінено необхідні апріорні умовні ймовірності. Остаточна модель побудована з використанням інструментарію моделювання GeNIe. Функціонування моделі продемонстровано на прикладі. Висновки. Показано, що задача моделювання, оцінювання та прогнозування ОР може бути розв’язана за допомогою ймовірнісного підходу, зокрема баєсової методології, яка дає змогу ідентифікувати та врахувати можливі невизначеності даних й експертних оцінок.
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- 2021
25. A Comparative Risk Assessment in Transportation of Gas from Sakhalin to the Far East and Republic of Korea
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Boris Nikolayevich Porfiryev
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Expert estimates ,risks ,methods of risk assessment ,options of gas transportation ,the Far East ,Sakhalin ,Republic of Korea ,Economics as a science ,HB71-74 - Abstract
The technique of expert risk analysis is presented, including substantiation of optimum selection and composition of experts, substantiation of risk assessment methods, classification of risks and organization of expert estimation procedure, a comparative assessment of importance of the risk groups. Based on comparative assessment of preferability of transportation options by the criterion of minimum integrated risk the option of gas transportation from Sakhalin deposits to the Far East and Republic of Korea is determined
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- 2007
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26. Sustainability of Business through Project Risk Identification with Use of Expert Estimates
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Jozef Kubas, Jaroslav Slepecky, Maria Luskova, Katarina Buganova, and Michal Brutovsky
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Computer science ,Process (engineering) ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Geography, Planning and Development ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,TJ807-830 ,02 engineering and technology ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,TD194-195 ,risk management ,Renewable energy sources ,021105 building & construction ,0502 economics and business ,Quality (business) ,GE1-350 ,Project management ,Risk management ,media_common ,Environmental effects of industries and plants ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,business.industry ,Project risk management ,05 social sciences ,expert estimates ,Test (assessment) ,Environmental sciences ,project management ,risk identification ,Phi coefficient ,Identification (information) ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,business ,sustainable entrepreneurship ,050203 business & management - Abstract
Projects are a tool that enables enterprises to implement innovation and development activities and achieve the goals in the set time, costs and required quality but they also bring risks that need to be adequately identified, analyzed and assessed. Important tools that can be used in project management in the process of risk identification are expert estimates. However, little attention is paid to determining the accuracy of expert estimates. To verify the accuracy of expert estimates, an analysis of all completed projects for a certain period of enterprise that implemented them was performed. The purpose of the study was to determine the accuracy of expert estimates in the enterprise implementing projects. This was ascertained by analyzing all available completed projects and by Barnard’s test at the significance level of α = 0.05. The Phi coefficient of association was used to determine its extent. In the paper, we pointed out how inappropriate expert estimates affect the completion of the project within the specified period.
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- 2021
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27. Розробка моделей і алгоритмів оцінки кадрового потенціалу закладу охорони здоров’я
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Oksana Mulesa, Fedir Geche, Volodymyr Nazarov, and Mykhailo Trombola
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Source data ,Medical staff ,Computer science ,rendering medical services ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,Block diagram ,information-analytical system ,информационно-аналитическая система ,кадровый потенциал ,экспертные оценки ,оказания медицинских услуг ,personnel potential ,expert estimates ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,System model ,Rendering (computer graphics) ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,Health care ,lcsh:Technology (General) ,lcsh:Industry ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,Competence (human resources) ,business.industry ,Applied Mathematics ,Mechanical Engineering ,UDC 004.9:614.2 ,Computer Science Applications ,Medical services ,Control and Systems Engineering ,lcsh:T1-995 ,lcsh:HD2321-4730.9 ,business ,Algorithm ,інформаційно-аналітична система ,кадровий потенціал ,експертні оцінки ,надання медичних послуг - Abstract
The problem of the development of models and methods for the estimation of the personnel potential of the health care institution is explored. Personnel potential is considered in terms of rendering medical services. It will be calculated as the maximum amount of certain types of health services that can be provided to consumers for a defined period of time by actual medical staff of an institution. An important condition in this case is maintaining the required quality of such services. The calculation of the indicators of the personnel potential of a health care institution, in particular, makes it possible to determine the ratio of the actual and standard work load on each individual employee of a health care institution. Based on the calculation of evaluation indicators of the work load of employees of institutions, it is possible to look for the ways of solving the problems of increasing the functional efficiency of health care establishments.According to the system model, the verbal and mathematical statements of arising problems were constructed. To analyze the personnel potential of a health care institution, it is proposed to apply the concept of a credit – the smallest conditional unit of time allotted for the provision of services. The calculation formulas for the computation of the standard and actual loads on certain employees and on an institution in general were specified. The source data for the calculation are the results of expert surveys, as well as statistical data on the amount of services provided by a particular health care institution, as well as its employees. The result of the conducted research was the information-analytical system of evaluation of the personnel potential of a health care institution. The core of the developed system is the analytical unit, which includes models, methods and algorithms for determining the competence of experts’ calculation of numeric expert evaluation of an object, calculation of the standard and actual load on employees and the institution, etc. The specific features of the data bank of the information-analytical system were determined. Its block diagram was presented.The experimental verification of research results was carried out. An example of operation of the program was shown and the analysis of results was given.The developed models and algorithms can be used successfully in the process of making managerial decisions in the health care area., Розглядається проблема розробки моделей і методів для оцінки кадрового потенціалу закладу охорони здоров’я. Кадровий потенціал розуміється в аспекті надання медичних послуг. Його будемо обчислювати як максимальну кількість окремих видів медичних послуг, які можуть бути надані споживачам за визначений період часу фактичними медичними працівниками закладу. Важливою умовою при цьому є збереження необхідної якості таких послуг. Розрахунок показників кадрового потенціалу закладу охорони здоров’я, зокрема, дозволяє визначити співвідношення між фактичним та нормативним навантаженням на кожного окремого працівника закладу охорони здоров’я. На основі розрахунку оціночних показників навантаження працівників закладів можливим є пошук шляхів вирішення проблеми підвищення ефективності функціонування закладів охорони здоров’я.Відповідно до системної моделі, побудовано вербальні та математичні постановки задач, які виникають. Для аналізу кадрового потенціалу закладу охорони здоров’я пропонується застосовувати поняття кредиту – найменшої умовної одиниці часу відведеної для надання послуг. Конкретизовано розрахункові формули для обчислення нормативного та фактичного навантажень на окремих працівників та закладу в цілому. Вихідними даними для розрахунків є результати експертних опитувань, а також статистичні дані щодо кількості послуг наданих конкретним закладом охорони здоров’я, а також її працівниками. Результатом проведеного дослідження стала інформаційно-аналітична система оцінки кадрового потенціалу закладу охорони здоров’я. Ядром розробленої системи є аналітичний блок, в який входять моделі, методи і алгоритми визначення компетентності експертів, обчислення числової експертної оцінки об’єкта, обчислення нормативного і фактичного навантаження на працівників та закладу тощо. Визначено особливості банку даних інформаційно-аналітичної системи. Наведено її структурну схему.Проведено експериментальну верифікацію результатів дослідження. Показано приклад роботи програми та наведено аналіз результатів.Розроблені моделі та алгоритми можуть успішно використовуватися в процесі прийняття управлінських рішень у сфері охорони здоров’я, Рассматривается проблема разработки моделей и алгоритмов для оценки кадрового потенциала учреждения здравоохранения. Кадровый потенциал понимается в аспекте предоставления медицинских услуг. Его будем вычислять как максимальное количество отдельных видов медицинских услуг, которые могут быть предоставлены потребителям за определенный период времени фактическими медицинскими работниками учреждения. Важным условием при этом является сохранение необходимого качества таких услуг. Расчет показателей кадрового потенциала учреждения здравоохранения, в частности, позволяет определить соотношение между фактической и нормативной нагрузкой на каждого отдельного работника учреждения здравоохранения. На основе расчета оценочных показателей нагрузки работников учреждений возможен поиск путей решения проблемы повышения эффективности функционирования учреждений здравоохранения.Согласно системной модели, построено вербальные и математические постановки задач, которые возникают. Для анализа кадрового потенциала учреждения здравоохранения предлагается применять понятие кредита – наименьшей условной единицы времени, отведенной для предоставления услуг. Конкретизированы расчетные формулы для вычисления нормативной и фактической нагрузок на отдельных работников и заведение в целом. Исходными данными для расчетов есть результаты экспертных опросов, а также статистические данные по количеству услуг, предоставляемых конкретным учреждением здравоохранения, а также ее работниками. Результатом проведенного исследования стала информационно-аналитическая система оценки кадрового потенциала учреждения здравоохранения. Ядром разработанной системы является аналитический блок, который образуют модели, методы и алгоритмы определения компетентности экспертов, вычисления числовой экспертной оценки объекта, вычисления нормативного и фактического нагрузки на работников и заведение и тому подобное. Определены особенности банка данных информационно-аналитической системы. Приведена ее структурная схема.Проведена экспериментальная верификация результатов исследования. Показан пример работы программы и приведен анализ результатов.Разработанные модели и алгоритмы могут успешно использоваться в процессе принятия управленческих решений в сфере здравоохранения
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- 2019
28. Application of index estimates for improving accuracy during selection of machine operators
- Author
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Alexander Laktionov
- Subjects
objective assessments ,Index (economics) ,Computer science ,Applied Mathematics ,Mechanical Engineering ,index estimates ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,expert estimates ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,Computer Science Applications ,Control and Systems Engineering ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,lcsh:Technology (General) ,Statistics ,lcsh:T1-995 ,lcsh:Industry ,self-assessments ,lcsh:HD2321-4730.9 ,standardized estimates ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,Selection (genetic algorithm) ,index estimate - Abstract
The methods proposed in this paper for calculating index ratings when selecting machine operators provide greater accuracy than the selection based on expert estimates and integrated indicators for groups of expert estimates. Index estimates are calculated based on the algorithm that combines self-assessments and expert estimates into the Quality index of professional competence of a machine operator (ІРС) while expert estimates and standardized assessments are combined into the Quality index of a machine operator training (IQT). The proposed methods for computing the index estimates comprehensively characterize an element in the functioning of the social subsystem in the system «Machine operator ‒ Machine with numerical control ‒ Part manufacturing program», OMMP. Index estimates characterize the degree of coherence/imbalance among self-assessments and expert estimates, as well as expert estimates and standardized assessments, as well as systemic interrelations between a machine operator and elements of the social, technical, and information subsystems within an open system. Advantages of index-based selection of machine operators over that based on expert estimates were assessed by comparing the two series of rankings in a list of names. The series of rankings were obtained using such methods as linear convolution and multiplicative convolution. It has been proven that the selection of machine operators using linear convolution is considerably more accurate if carried out based on the index estimates, when compared with expert estimates. It is appropriate to use a binary search method to select machine operators in accordance with a customer’s requirements.
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- 2019
29. Development of the method of distances for processing expert estimates in information systems
- Author
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Natalia Shybaieva, Mykola Rudnichenko, Ashot Halustian, Oleksandr Shyrshkov, and Tetyana Otradska
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Normalization (statistics) ,Computer science ,processing of expert estimate ,020209 energy ,Computation ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,02 engineering and technology ,computer.software_genre ,Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering ,information technology ,Management of Technology and Innovation ,021105 building & construction ,Credibility ,lcsh:Technology (General) ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,Information system ,lcsh:Industry ,analysis of expert estimation ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,Iteration process ,business.industry ,Applied Mathematics ,Mechanical Engineering ,Small number ,Information technology ,expert estimates ,Computer Science Applications ,Rate of convergence ,estimation of indicators ,Control and Systems Engineering ,lcsh:T1-995 ,lcsh:HD2321-4730.9 ,Data mining ,on-line assessment ,business ,computer - Abstract
Current research focuses on expert estimation of indicators by employing a limited number of qualified experts, which involves considerable time and cost. The advent of modern information technology allows rapid and efficient assessment of indicators that characterize performance of enterprises. The main tool for solving the issue related to the credibility of such an estimation is the development of new methods for processing its results. We have proposed a method of distances to treat the results from expert estimations of indicators and examined the results of its work. To this end, theoretical substantiation of the method has been performed, based on the concept of proximity (distances) among estimates relative to the average value, coefficients of experts' competence, and normalization of the point scale of assessment. We have explored three variants of expert point- and verbal-based estimates of independent and dependent indicators in line with the method of distances, which showed that the convergence rate of iteration process for all cases varies from 1 to 4 orders of magnitude at each iteration. That makes it possible to draw a conclusion about a very small number of computations by the information system and sufficient speed of processing expert estimates. A comparative analysis of the method of distances with a similar method of square deviations has revealed almost the same rate of convergence up to 3‒5 iterative steps, but the proposed method yields an estimate close to the average estimate of each indicator. It also enables the processing of results in information systems by 99 % faster, from dozens, even hundreds of times, more estimates than that in the methods of expert selection, which is important under current competitive environment. Average efficiency of the method compared to the method of expert selection is 5.8 %
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- 2019
30. Diagnostics of the technical condition of electric network equipment based on fuzzy expert estimates
- Abstract
The paper describes a new possible method of diagnostics of the current technical condition of equipment using a mathematical model based on fuzzy expert estimates and the theory of fuzzy sets. The specifics of the task is determined mainly by the type of the obtained estimates, namely: causal relationships between the controlled parameters of the transformer equipment and defects that could entail their change and the possibility of further operation of the facility. At the same time, attention is paid to the problem of the degree of consistency of expert opinions that affects the quality of the assessment of the current technical condition of the studied object. The paper provides a comparative analysis of the arithmetic mean estimates and median estimates of the consistency of expert opinions. It is shown that the significant drawback of the arithmetic mean approach is its instability towards outliers of individual opinions moving the resulting value under the influence of the “dissident expert opinions”. On the other hand, the median estimate is free of such shortage; it is more outlier-resistant and simply discards a part of radically outlying expert opinions. For the first time, the Kemeny median has been used for technical diagnostics. Kemeny median is based on the introduction of a metric to the set of expert opinions, and axiomatic introduction of the distance between them. Also, the paper formulates a criterion on how to determine the optimal number of experts in the group. © 2020
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- 2020
31. On the new multistage Fuzzy Technology to Investment Decisions.
- Author
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Sirbiladze, Gia, Khutsishvili, Irina, and Ghvaberidze, Bezhan
- Abstract
This article proposes a novel Fuzzy Technology to support the Investment Decisions. While choosing among competitive investment projects, this technology provides the selection of projects with minimal crediting risks, makes ranking of chosen projects and then allows to optimally allocate investment amounts between several of them. The technology combines two fuzzy-statistical methods and solution of bicriteria discrete optimization problem, providing three stages of investment projects' evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]
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- 2012
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- View/download PDF
32. Diagnostics of the technical condition of electric network equipment based on fuzzy expert estimates
- Author
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Javod Ahyoev, Stepan A. Dmitriev, Murodbek Safaraliev, Sergey Kokin, Alexander Tavlintsev, and Vadim Manusov
- Subjects
EXPERT ESTIMATES ,Operations research ,Computer science ,020209 energy ,Fuzzy set ,Technical diagnostics ,Expert estimates ,02 engineering and technology ,FUZZY LOGIC ,Fuzzy logic ,COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS ,CONTROLLED PARAMETER ,Set (abstract data type) ,Consistency (database systems) ,DEGREE OF CONSISTENCY ,020401 chemical engineering ,Electrical equipment of electric power systems ,Degree of consistency ,0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering ,ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT OF ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEMS ,NETWORK EQUIPMENT ,COEFFICIENT OF CONCORDANCE ,0204 chemical engineering ,THEORY OF FUZZY SETS ,Axiom ,Current state ,FUZZY CAUSAL RELATIONS ,CIRCUIT THEORY ,CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS ,TECHNICAL CONDITIONS ,ARITHMETIC MEAN ,Electric power ,STATISTICS ,General Energy ,ELECTRIC POWER ,ESTIMATION ,Outlier ,KEMENY MEDIAN ,CURRENT STATE ,TECHNICAL DIAGNOSTICS ,Metric (unit) ,lcsh:Electrical engineering. Electronics. Nuclear engineering ,lcsh:TK1-9971 ,Arithmetic mean - Abstract
The paper describes a new possible method of diagnostics of the current technical condition of equipment using a mathematical model based on fuzzy expert estimates and the theory of fuzzy sets. The specifics of the task is determined mainly by the type of the obtained estimates, namely: causal relationships between the controlled parameters of the transformer equipment and defects that could entail their change and the possibility of further operation of the facility. At the same time, attention is paid to the problem of the degree of consistency of expert opinions that affects the quality of the assessment of the current technical condition of the studied object. The paper provides a comparative analysis of the arithmetic mean estimates and median estimates of the consistency of expert opinions. It is shown that the significant drawback of the arithmetic mean approach is its instability towards outliers of individual opinions moving the resulting value under the influence of the “dissident expert opinions”. On the other hand, the median estimate is free of such shortage; it is more outlier-resistant and simply discards a part of radically outlying expert opinions. For the first time, the Kemeny median has been used for technical diagnostics. Kemeny median is based on the introduction of a metric to the set of expert opinions, and axiomatic introduction of the distance between them. Also, the paper formulates a criterion on how to determine the optimal number of experts in the group.
- Published
- 2020
33. Анализ современных платёжных систем
- Subjects
платёжная система ,ranking ,экспертные оценки ,payment system ,finance ,coefficient of concordance ,expert estimates ,ранжирование ,финансы ,коэффициент конкордации - Abstract
В данной статье рассмотрены современные платёжные системы, действующие на территории России. Выявлены и проанализированы их основные преимущества и недостатки. Проведено ранжирование платёжных систем с применением метода экспертных оценок., This article discusses modern payment systems operating in Russia. Identified and analyzed their main advantages and disadvantages. The ranking of payment systems using the method of expert estimates., Экономика и предпринимательство, Выпуск 7 (120) 2020
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- 2020
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34. DELPHI TECHNIQUE IN THE RISK IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESMENT
- Author
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Iuliia A. Golikova and Iuliia G. Timofeeva
- Subjects
оценка риска ,опросник ,questionnaire ,управление рисками ,experts ,expert estimates ,risk management ,аналитики ,risk identification and risk assessment ,экспертные оценки ,метод «Делфи» ,эксперты ,analysts ,«Delphi» technique ,идентификация риска - Abstract
В статье дается определение метода «Делфи», обозначается его место в идентификации и оценке рисков, приводится характеристика метода, его достоинства и недостатки. Проводится исследование возникновения и тенденций использования метода «Делфи» за рубежом и в России., The article defines the «Delphi» method, identifies its place in risk identification and assessment and describes the method as well: its advantages and disadvantages. A study is being made of the occurrence and trends of using the «Delphi» method abroad and in Russia.
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- 2019
35. METHOD FOR ASSESSING THE READINESS OF HIGH-TECH PRODUCTS FOR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
- Author
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A. M. Batkovskiy, A. V. Leonov, and A. Yu. Pronin
- Subjects
Relation (database) ,Computer science ,Process (engineering) ,Industrial production ,media_common.quotation_subject ,expert estimates ,level of readiness ,Variety (cybernetics) ,Product (business) ,Documentation ,Economics as a science ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,Production (economics) ,Quality (business) ,high-technology products ,functional-technological blocks ,HB71-74 ,media_common - Abstract
Purpose of the study . High-tech products are complex products created on the basis of the application of unique production processes, or products that realize their consumer functions using the latest physical and technical effects. The aim of the study is to develop a new method for assessing the readiness of high-tech products for production. The creation of high-tech products is a very complex and expensive process, which involves the formation of a scientific and technical reserve with the wide use of scientific achievements. For example, the process of creating a scientific and technical reserve in the interests of conducting research and development work includes the stages of the formation of scientific, scientific & technological and industrial-technological reserves. Therefore, the assessment of the readiness of high-tech products for industrial production has specific features. Materials and methods . In the conditions of insufficient funding to create a scientific and technical base and the fundamental impossibility of carrying out fundamental scientific research on a "wide spectrum," the current task is to form such a rational research composition that would allow the creation of high-tech products with high quality and a high degree of the readiness for industrial production. At present, the methodological tools for assessing the readiness of high-tech products for industrial production is at the first stage of development, although the relevance of such estimates arises in the process of justifying almost any experimental design work. This ensures an improvement in the quality of the products created. Improving the quality of high-tech products is a multifaceted problem. The main quality components are the technical level in the product documentation, the degree of implementation of this level in the manufacturing process of the product. The research is based on the theory of economic science. A method is proposed for assessing the readiness of high-tech products for industrial production, including all its stages: from the formation of the conceptual technological scheme of the product to the calculation of the level of production and technological readiness. An important feature of the developed method is the use of a mathematical apparatus, including the classical method of expert evaluations, taking into account the author's version of its modification in relation to the problem under consideration. Results . The developed method is based on the presentation of a promising product of high-tech products in the form of a set of functional and technological blocks that include a variety of different technologies and the use of expert assessments to assess the level of readiness of production technologies and the technological readiness of the product for industrial production. The proposed method has scientific novelty, which determines the representation of a promising product of high-tech products in the form of a set of functional and technological blocks, each of which includes a number of different technologies (both existing and new) that allow for their joint use (operation) required characteristics of high-tech products. The conclusion . Practical use of the developed method of evaluation seems to be the most effective in the framework of modern concepts of managing high-tech enterprises. The offered method can be used at preparation of industrial-technological reserve for perspective products of high-tech production. The efficiency of the developed method for assessing the readiness of high-tech products for industrial production is demonstrated on a numerical illustration and tested in the process of managing the production of this product.
- Published
- 2018
36. Evaluating the effect of state aid to business by multicriteria methods
- Author
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Romualdas Ginevičius, Valentinas Podvezko, and Šarūnas Bruzgė
- Subjects
state aid ,aid assessment ,EU support ,structural funds ,multicriteria methods ,expert estimates ,Business ,HF5001-6182 - Abstract
One of the forms of state intervention in market development is state aid (subsidies) to private sector enterprises. Over the period of 2004–2006, a great part of the EU aid was granted to business in Lithuania through the EU structural funds. State aid is a complicated phenomenon. It may have several aims, with none of them being dominant. The effects of this aid may also be varied and hardly described by a single criterion or indicator. Therefore, multiple criteria evaluation methods can be used to compare the aid to various businesses and to determine its effect on their development objectively. The analysis of state subsidies to enterprises based on these methods allowed us to state that the aid had the greatest effect on the development of projects in the areas of production, research, experiments and education. The most influencing factor is aid intensity (the more intensive the aid, the greater the effect), while the best ratios of investments to the effect obtained was found in the area of educational projects, followed by research, experimental and production projects. The aid to enterprises providing services was the least effective. The results obtained in multicriteria evaluation of state aid to business show that these methods are well suited to the analysis of this phenomenon, providing an objective view of the picture. First published online: 14 Oct 2010
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- 2008
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
37. Development of the method of distances for processing expert estimates in information systems
- Abstract
Current research focuses on expert estimation of indicators by employing a limited number of qualified experts, which involves considerable time and cost. The advent of modern information technology allows rapid and efficient assessment of indicators that characterize performance of enterprises. The main tool for solving the issue related to the credibility of such an estimation is the development of new methods for processing its results.We have proposed a method of distances to treat the results from expert estimations of indicators and examined the results of its work.To this end, theoretical substantiation of the method has been performed, based on the concept of proximity (distances) among estimates relative to the average value, coefficients of experts' competence, and normalization of the point scale of assessment.We have explored three variants of expert point- and verbal-based estimates of independent and dependent indicators in line with the method of distances, which showed that the convergence rate of iteration process for all cases varies from 1 to 4 orders of magnitude at each iteration. That makes it possible to draw a conclusion about a very small number of computations by the information system and sufficient speed of processing expert estimates.A comparative analysis of the method of distances with a similar method of square deviations has revealed almost the same rate of convergence up to 3‒5 iterative steps, but the proposed method yields an estimate close to the average estimate of each indicator. It also enables the processing of results in information systems by 99 % faster, from dozens, even hundreds of times, more estimates than that in the methods of expert selection, which is important under current competitive environment. Average efficiency of the method compared to the method of expert selection is 5.8 %, Сегодня большинство исследований посвящено экспертной оценке показателей с использованием небольшого количества проверенных экспертов, что требует много времени и затрат. С появлением современных информационных технологий становится возможным быстрое и оперативное проведение оценки показателей деятельности предприятий. Основным инструментом решения проблемы достоверности такой оценки является разработка новых методов обработки ее результатов.Предложен метод расстояний для обработки результатов экспертных оценок показателей и проведены исследования результатов его работыДля этого выполнено теоретическое обоснование метода, основанное на понятии близости (расстояниях) оценок по отношению к среднему значению, коэффициентах компетентности экспертов и нормализации бальной шкалы оценивания.Проведено исследование трех вариантов экспертной бальной и вербальной оценок независимых и зависимых показателей по методу расстояний, которое показало скорость схождения итерационного процесса для всех вариантов от 1 до 4 порядков на каждой итерации. Это позволяет сделать вывод об очень небольшом количестве вычислений информационной системы и достаточной скорости обработки экспертных оценок.Сравнительный анализ метода расстояний с подобным ему методом квадратичных отклонений показал почти одинаковую скорость схождения до 3–5 итерационных шагов, но предложенный метод получает оценку, приближенную к средней оценке каждого показателя. Также он позволяет выполнять обработку результатов в информационных системах на 99 % быстрее и в десятки или даже в сотни раз большего количества оценок, чем в методах отбора экспертов, что является важным в конкурентной среде сегодня. Средняя эффективность метода по сравнению с методом отбора экспертов составляет 5.8 %, Сьогодні більшість досліджень присвячена експертному оцінюванню показників з використанням невеликої кількості перевірених експертів, що потребує багато часу та витрат. З появою сучасних інформаційних технологій стає можливим швидке та оперативне проведення оцінки показників діяльності підприємств. Основним інструментом рішення проблеми достовірності такої оцінки є розробка нових методів обробки її результатів.Запропоновано метод відстаней для обробки результатів експертних оцінок показників та проведено дослідження результатів його роботи. Для цього виконане теоретичне обґрунтування методу відстаней, яке ґрунтується на понятті близькості (відстаней) оцінок до середнього значення, коефіцієнтах компетентності експертів та нормалізації бальної шкали оцінювання.Проведено дослідження трьох варіантів експертного бального та вербального оцінювання незалежних і залежних показників за методом відстаней, яке показало швидкість сходження для усіх варіантів ітераційного процесу від 1 до 4 порядків за кожною ітерацією. Це дозволяє зробити висновок щодо дуже невеликої кількості обчислень інформаційної системи і достатньої швидкості обробки експертних оцінок.Порівняльний аналіз методу відстаней з подібним до нього методом квадратичних відхилень показав майже однакову швидкість сходження до 3–5 ітераційних кроків, але запропонований метод отримує оцінку більш наближену до середньої оцінки кожного показника. Також він дозволяє виконувати в інформаційних системах обробку результатів на 99 % швидше та в десятки або навіть в сотні разів більшої кількості оцінок, ніж у методах відбору експертів, що є важливим у конкурентному середовищі сьогодні. Середня ефективність методу в порівнянні з методом відбору експертів становить 5.8 %
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- 2019
38. Application of index estimates for improving accuracy during selection of machine operators
- Abstract
The methods proposed in this paper for calculating index ratings when selecting machine operators provide greater accuracy than the selection based on expert estimates and integrated indicators for groups of expert estimates.Index estimates are calculated based on the algorithm that combines self-assessments and expert estimates into the Quality index of professional competence of a machine operator (ІРС) while expert estimates and standardized assessments are combined into the Quality index of a machine operator training (IQT). The proposed methods for computing the index estimates comprehensively characterize an element in the functioning of the social subsystem in the system «Machine operator ‒ Machine with numerical control ‒ Part manufacturing program», OMMP.Index estimates characterize the degree of coherence/imbalance among self-assessments and expert estimates, as well as expert estimates and standardized assessments, as well as systemic interrelations between a machine operator and elements of the social, technical, and information subsystems within an open system.Advantages of index-based selection of machine operators over that based on expert estimates were assessed by comparing the two series of rankings in a list of names. The series of rankings were obtained using such methods as linear convolution and multiplicative convolution. It has been proven that the selection of machine operators using linear convolution is considerably more accurate if carried out based on the index estimates, when compared with expert estimates. It is appropriate to use a binary search method to select machine operators in accordance with a customer’s requirements., Запропоновані методи вираховування індексних оцінок при відборі верстатників забезпечують більшу точність, чим відбір на основі експертних оцінок та їх інтегрованих показників груп експертних оцінок.Індексні оцінки вираховуються на основі алгоритму об’єднання самооцінок і експертних оцінок у Індекс якості сформованості професійної компетентності верстатника (ІПК), а об’єднання експертних оцінок і нормованих оцінок – у Індекс якості підготовки верстатника (ІЯП). Запропоновані методи вираховування індексних оцінок комплексно характеризують елемент функціонування соціальної підсистеми системи «Верстатник – Верстат з числовим програмним керуванням – Керуюча програма виготовлення деталі», ВВКП.Індексні оцінки характеризують міру узгодженості/розбалансованості самооцінок і експертних оцінок та експертних оцінок і нормованих оцінок, а також – системних взаємозв’язків верстатника з елементами соціальної, технічної та інформаційної підсистем відкритої системи.Переваги відбору верстатників на основі індексних оцінок, у порівнянні з експертними оцінками, спостерігалися при співставленні двох рядів рангових місць у списку прізвищ. Ряди рангових місць отримані з використанням методів – лінійної згортки, мультиплікативної згортки. Доведено, що відбір верстатників з використанням методу лінійної згортки значно точніший, якщо проводиться на основі індексних оцінок, при порівнянні з експертними оцінками. Для відбору верстатників згідно вимог Замовника доцільно використовувати метод бінарного пошуку, Предложенные методы вычисления индексных оценок при отборе станочников обеспечивают большую точность чем отбор на основе экспертных оценок та интегральных показателей групп экспертных оценок.Индексные оценки рассчитываются на основе алгоритма объединения самооценок и экспертных оценок в Индекс качества сформированности профессиональной компетентности станочника (ИПК), а объединение экспертных оценок и нормированных оценок – в Индекс качества подготовки станочника (ИКП). Предложенные методы вычисления индексных оценок комплексно характеризующих элемент функционирования социальной подсистемы системы «Станочник – Станок с числовым программным управлением – Управляющая программа изготовления детали», ССУП.Индексные оценки характеризуют степень согласованности/ разбалансированности самооценок и экспертных оценок та экспертных оценок и нормированных оценок, а также – системных взаимосвязей станочника с элементами социальной, технической и информационной подсистем открытой системы.Преимущества отбора станочников на основе индексных оценок, по сравнению с экспертными оценками, наблюдались при сопоставлении двух рядов ранговых мест в списке фамилий. Ряды ранговых мест полученные с использованием методов – линейной свертки, мультипликативной свертки. Доказано, что отбор станочников с использованием метода линейной свертки значительно точнее, если проводится на основе индексных оценок, при сравнении с экспертными оценками. Для отбора станочников в соответствии с требованиями Заказчика целесообразно использовать метод бинарного поиска
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- 2019
39. Development of models and algorithms for estimating the potential of personnel at health care institutions
- Abstract
The problem of the development of models and methods for the estimation of the personnel potential of the health care institution is explored. Personnel potential is considered in terms of rendering medical services. It will be calculated as the maximum amount of certain types of health services that can be provided to consumers for a defined period of time by actual medical staff of an institution. An important condition in this case is maintaining the required quality of such services. The calculation of the indicators of the personnel potential of a health care institution, in particular, makes it possible to determine the ratio of the actual and standard work load on each individual employee of a health care institution. Based on the calculation of evaluation indicators of the work load of employees of institutions, it is possible to look for the ways of solving the problems of increasing the functional efficiency of health care establishments.According to the system model, the verbal and mathematical statements of arising problems were constructed. To analyze the personnel potential of a health care institution, it is proposed to apply the concept of a credit – the smallest conditional unit of time allotted for the provision of services. The calculation formulas for the computation of the standard and actual loads on certain employees and on an institution in general were specified. The source data for the calculation are the results of expert surveys, as well as statistical data on the amount of services provided by a particular health care institution, as well as its employees. The result of the conducted research was the information-analytical system of evaluation of the personnel potential of a health care institution. The core of the developed system is the analytical unit, which includes models, methods and algorithms for determining the competence of experts’ calculation of numeric expert evaluation of an object, calculation of the standard and actual lo, Рассматривается проблема разработки моделей и алгоритмов для оценки кадрового потенциала учреждения здравоохранения. Кадровый потенциал понимается в аспекте предоставления медицинских услуг. Его будем вычислять как максимальное количество отдельных видов медицинских услуг, которые могут быть предоставлены потребителям за определенный период времени фактическими медицинскими работниками учреждения. Важным условием при этом является сохранение необходимого качества таких услуг. Расчет показателей кадрового потенциала учреждения здравоохранения, в частности, позволяет определить соотношение между фактической и нормативной нагрузкой на каждого отдельного работника учреждения здравоохранения. На основе расчета оценочных показателей нагрузки работников учреждений возможен поиск путей решения проблемы повышения эффективности функционирования учреждений здравоохранения.Согласно системной модели, построено вербальные и математические постановки задач, которые возникают. Для анализа кадрового потенциала учреждения здравоохранения предлагается применять понятие кредита – наименьшей условной единицы времени, отведенной для предоставления услуг. Конкретизированы расчетные формулы для вычисления нормативной и фактической нагрузок на отдельных работников и заведение в целом. Исходными данными для расчетов есть результаты экспертных опросов, а также статистические данные по количеству услуг, предоставляемых конкретным учреждением здравоохранения, а также ее работниками. Результатом проведенного исследования стала информационно-аналитическая система оценки кадрового потенциала учреждения здравоохранения. Ядром разработанной системы является аналитический блок, который образуют модели, методы и алгоритмы определения компетентности экспертов, вычисления числовой экспертной оценки объекта, вычисления нормативного и фактического нагрузки на работников и заведение и тому подобное. Определены особенности банка данных информационно-аналитической системы. Приведена ее структурная схема.Пров, Розглядається проблема розробки моделей і методів для оцінки кадрового потенціалу закладу охорони здоров’я. Кадровий потенціал розуміється в аспекті надання медичних послуг. Його будемо обчислювати як максимальну кількість окремих видів медичних послуг, які можуть бути надані споживачам за визначений період часу фактичними медичними працівниками закладу. Важливою умовою при цьому є збереження необхідної якості таких послуг. Розрахунок показників кадрового потенціалу закладу охорони здоров’я, зокрема, дозволяє визначити співвідношення між фактичним та нормативним навантаженням на кожного окремого працівника закладу охорони здоров’я. На основі розрахунку оціночних показників навантаження працівників закладів можливим є пошук шляхів вирішення проблеми підвищення ефективності функціонування закладів охорони здоров’я.Відповідно до системної моделі, побудовано вербальні та математичні постановки задач, які виникають. Для аналізу кадрового потенціалу закладу охорони здоров’я пропонується застосовувати поняття кредиту – найменшої умовної одиниці часу відведеної для надання послуг. Конкретизовано розрахункові формули для обчислення нормативного та фактичного навантажень на окремих працівників та закладу в цілому. Вихідними даними для розрахунків є результати експертних опитувань, а також статистичні дані щодо кількості послуг наданих конкретним закладом охорони здоров’я, а також її працівниками. Результатом проведеного дослідження стала інформаційно-аналітична система оцінки кадрового потенціалу закладу охорони здоров’я. Ядром розробленої системи є аналітичний блок, в який входять моделі, методи і алгоритми визначення компетентності експертів, обчислення числової експертної оцінки об’єкта, обчислення нормативного і фактичного навантаження на працівників та закладу тощо. Визначено особливості банку даних інформаційно-аналітичної системи. Наведено її структурну схему.Проведено експериментальну верифікацію результатів дослідження. Показано приклад роботи програми та наведено ан
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- 2019
40. Метод «Делфи» в идентификации и оценке рисков
- Abstract
В статье дается определение метода «Делфи», обозначается его место в идентификации и оценке рисков, приводится характеристика метода, его достоинства и недостатки. Проводится исследование возникновения и тенденций использования метода «Делфи» за рубежом и в России., The article defines the «Delphi» method, identifies its place in risk identification and assessment and describes the method as well: its advantages and disadvantages. A study is being made of the occurrence and trends of using the «Delphi» method abroad and in Russia.
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- 2019
41. Agreement of expert estimates
- Author
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Valentinas Podvezko
- Subjects
expert estimates ,ranking ,agreement of judgements ,concordance coefficient ,Economic growth, development, planning ,HD72-88 ,Business ,HF5001-6182 - Abstract
The application of multicriteria methods largely depends on the calculation of the criteria weights based on expert evaluation. The results obtained can be used for practical purposes if expert judgments are in good agreement. This may be determined by the concordance of a coefficient obtained by ranking the available alternatives. The paper considers a possibility to apply the concordance coefficient in cases when expert evaluation is not based on ranking. The calculations reveal the dependence of the agreement of expert estimates on a particular method used. The highest degree of agreement has been obtained by using the direct ranking method. The effect of equally assessed criteria, i. e. the tied ranks on the concordance coefficient and thereby on the level of expert judgments agreement is usually insignificant and cannot change the results of rating. Ekspertų įverÄių suderinamumas Santrauka Taikant daugiakriterinius metodus labai svarbu nustatyti kriterijų (rodiklių) svorius. Svorių skaiÄiavimo pagrindÄ… sudaro ekspertų vertinimai. Rezultatus galima taikyti praktikoje, jei nustatytas pakankamas ekspertų nuomonių suderinamumo lygis. Jį nustato konkordancijos koeficientas, skaiÄiuojamas lyginamų objektų rangavimo pagrindu. Straipsnyje nagrinÄ—jama konkordancijos koeficiento taikymo galimybÄ—, kai ekspertų vertinimai atlikti ne rangavimo bÅ«du. Nustatyta, kad objektų suderinamumo lygis priklauso nuo ekspertų vertinimo metodo. Didžiausias suderinamumas gaunamas taikant tiesioginį rangavimo metodÄ…. Vienodai įvertintų rodiklių, t. y. susietų rangų įtaka konkordancijos koeficiento reikÅ¡mei, taigi ir ekspertų suderinamumo lygiui paprastai nežymi ir nekeiÄia rezultato. ReikÅ¡miniai žodžiai: ekspertų vertinimai, rangavimas, nuomonių suderinamumas, konkordancijos koeficientas First Published Online: 21 Oct 2010
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- 2005
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42. EVALUATING THE EFFECT OF STATE AID TO BUSINESS BY MULTICRITERIA METHODS.
- Author
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Ginevičius, Romualdas, Podvezko, Valentinas, and Brūzgė, Šarunas
- Subjects
GOVERNMENT aid ,BUSINESS finance ,ECONOMIC history ,MANAGERIAL economics ,INDUSTRIAL management ,ECONOMIC competition - Abstract
One of the forms of state intervention in market development is state aid (subsidies) to private sector enterprises. Over the period of 2004-2006, a great part of the EU aid was granted to business in Lithuania through the EU structural funds. State aid is a complicated phenomenon. It may have several aims, with none of them being dominant. The effects of this aid may also be varied and hardly described by a single criterion or indicator. Therefore, multiple criteria evaluation methods can be used to compare the aid to various businesses and to determine its effect on their development objectively. The analysis of state subsidies to enterprises based on these methods allowed us to state that the aid had the greatest effect on the development of projects in the areas of production, research, experiments and education. The most influencing factor is aid intensity (the more intensive the aid, the greater the effect), while the best ratios of investments to the effect obtained was found in the area of educational projects, followed by research, experimental and production projects. The aid to enterprises providing services was the least effective. The results obtained in multicriteria evaluation of state aid to business show that these methods are well suited to the analysis of this phenomenon, providing an objective view of the picture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2008
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43. Expert Evaluation of Potential Points of Economic Growth in the Regions of Russia and the Conditions of their Development
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A. V. Tihonov, V. S. Bogdanov, and A. A. Pochestnev
- Subjects
Empirical data ,Economic growth ,socio-economic development of regions ,problems of development of regions ,Socioeconomic development ,development of the region economic potential ,General Medicine ,expert estimates ,Modernization theory ,potential "points of growth" ,langeroudi industry ,Geography ,Economics as a science ,Regional development ,Regional science ,Russian federation ,HB71-74 ,modernization - Abstract
Purpose: the main purpose of this article is to identify « growth points» of economic growth in the regions, determine their type, and assess the conditions for their development. Methods: the main feature of this study is to obtain an expert assessment of the qualitative aspects of regional development. The main source of empirical data was an online survey conducted by the authors in 2016. Results: the study identified potential «growth points» in five regions of the Russian Federation and determined their nature according to the idea of modernizing the socio-economic environment. The selected points allow to develop the potential of the region horizontally. However, there are certain problems that hinder this development and they have been identified. Conclusions and Relevance: at the moment, the identified «growth points» can not be classified as information or intellectual, but in all regions there is the possibility of activating such industries. The «growth points» allocated by experts are still potential, because their technical, technological and innovative components have medium level of development. «Growth points» in the Republic of Sakha and the Nizhny Novgorod region have a greater modernization activity. Such expertise can be used by local authorities to adjust development vectors and strategies. It can also be an element of monitoring the socioeconomic development of regions.
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- 2017
44. The Criteria for the Selection of Wells for Hydraulic Fracturing
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A. V. Nasybullin, V. G. Salimov, R.Z. Sakhabutdinov, and O. V. Salimov
- Subjects
lcsh:Geology ,Geophysics ,Hydraulic fracturing ,Petroleum engineering ,well selection criteria ,lcsh:QE1-996.5 ,Geology ,expert estimates ,hydraulic fracturing ,Selection (genetic algorithm) - Abstract
Various methods of selection of wells for hydraulic fracturing are analyzed. It is established that all methods can be divided into three large groups: criteria in the table form of boundary values of parameters, statistical methods of pattern recognition, methods of engineering calculation. The complication or use of additional parameters only leads to a reduction in the number of wells at which hydraulic fracturing is possible. It is shown that the use of reservoir properties of rocks, which are already used by hydraulic fracturing simulators, is not practicable as selection criteria. It is required to include in the selection criteria only those additional factors on which the effectiveness of hydraulic fracturing depends directly.
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- 2017
45. GENERATION OF A SET OF EVALUATION CRITERIA.
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Ginevièius, Romualdas and Podvezko, Valentinas
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TECHNICAL specifications ,DISTRIBUTION (Probability theory) ,PROBABILITY theory ,MATHEMATICAL statistics ,STATISTICS - Abstract
Copyright of Business: Theory & Practice is the property of Vilnius Gediminas Technical University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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- 2005
46. EKSPERTŲ ĮVERČIŲ SUDERINAMUMAS.
- Author
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Podvezko, Valentinas
- Subjects
- *
MULTIPLE criteria decision making , *JUDGMENT (Psychology) , *CONCORDANCES (Topology) , *COEFFICIENT of concordance , *STATISTICAL correlation - Abstract
The application of multicriteria methods largely depends on the calculation of the criteria weights based on expert evaluation. The results obtained can be used for practical purposes if expert judgments are in good agreement. This may be determined by the concordance of a coefficient obtained by ranking the available alternatives. The paper considers a possibility to apply the concordance coefficient in cases when expert evaluation is not based on ranking. The calculations reveal the dependence of the agreement of expert estimates on a particular method used. The highest degree of agreement has been obtained by using the direct ranking method. The effect of equally assessed criteria, i. e. the tied ranks on the concordance coefficient and thereby on the level of expert judgments agreement is usually insignificant and cannot change the results of rating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2005
47. Formalized procedure for ranking alternatives in developing environmental programs
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Tenekedjiev, K., Kamenova, S., and Nikolova, N.
- Subjects
- *
ENVIRONMENTALISM , *STATISTICAL bootstrapping , *WASTE treatment - Abstract
Different institutions for many of reasons develop environmental programs. Many aspects are taken into consideration in order to make alternative decisions that concern them. Environmental decision makers usually use experts’ opinion on the subject, and in any case they must conform to the strict development requirements and the specific features of the situation at hand. In this paper, a formalized approach towards expert panel subjective opinion processing is presented, which allows a criteria hierarchy to be structured and different environmental program alternatives to be ranked taking into consideration not only the total marginal indicators, but also their deviation with the use of the Bootstrap modification of the Monte Carlo computer intensive simulation method. Developed procedure, called REPOMP (Randomized Expert Panel Opinion Marginalizing Procedure) is applied in order to estimate two alternative technologies for waste treatment. Because it is generic, REPOMP can be used for solving a wide range of problems that envisage similar input data structure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2004
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48. Experimental Research of Methods for Obtaining the Cardinal Expert Estimates of Alternatives. Part 2. Methods with Expert Feedback.
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Totsenko, V. G., Tsyganok, V. V., Kachanov, P. T., Deyev, A. A., Kachanova, E. V., and Torba, L. T.
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ESTIMATES ,PAIRED comparisons (Mathematics) ,ALGORITHMS ,MATRICES (Mathematics) - Abstract
Results of experimental research of 12 methods for getting cardinal expert estimates with expert feedback are represented. The tested methods are described. Experimental data processing and its analysis results are represented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2003
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49. THE METHODOLOGY OF DUAL SCALES IN EXPERT ESTIMATING PARAMETERS OF AN INTERMEDIATE EVENTS TREE OF AVIATION ACCIDENT DEVELOPMENT WITH PREVENTION AND PARRYING BARRIERS
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A. I. Orlov, Yu. G. Savinov, and A. Yu. Bogdanov
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logical-probability tree of events ,order and absolute scales ,aviation accident/incident ,TL1-4050 ,expert estimates ,dual rank-absolute methodology ,Motor vehicles. Aeronautics. Astronautics - Abstract
The new dual methodology of expert estimation of the parameters of intermediate events tree in the development of aviation event / incident is elaborated in the article on the basis of logical and probabilistic model that combines the advantages of both widely used methods FMEA and FTA [1].
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- 2016
50. Использование индексных оценок для повышения точности отбора станочников
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Laktionov, Alexander
- Subjects
самооценки ,экспертные оценки ,нормированные оценки ,объективные оценки ,индексные оценки ,UDC 004.5 ,self-assessments ,expert estimates ,standardized estimates ,objective assessments ,index estimates ,самооцінки ,експертні оцінки ,нормовані оцінки ,об’єктивні оцінки ,індексні оцінки - Abstract
The methods proposed in this paper for calculating index ratings when selecting machine operators provide greater accuracy than the selection based on expert estimates and integrated indicators for groups of expert estimates.Index estimates are calculated based on the algorithm that combines self-assessments and expert estimates into the Quality index of professional competence of a machine operator (ІРС) while expert estimates and standardized assessments are combined into the Quality index of a machine operator training (IQT). The proposed methods for computing the index estimates comprehensively characterize an element in the functioning of the social subsystem in the system «Machine operator ‒ Machine with numerical control ‒ Part manufacturing program», OMMP.Index estimates characterize the degree of coherence/imbalance among self-assessments and expert estimates, as well as expert estimates and standardized assessments, as well as systemic interrelations between a machine operator and elements of the social, technical, and information subsystems within an open system.Advantages of index-based selection of machine operators over that based on expert estimates were assessed by comparing the two series of rankings in a list of names. The series of rankings were obtained using such methods as linear convolution and multiplicative convolution. It has been proven that the selection of machine operators using linear convolution is considerably more accurate if carried out based on the index estimates, when compared with expert estimates. It is appropriate to use a binary search method to select machine operators in accordance with a customer’s requirements., Запропоновані методи вираховування індексних оцінок при відборі верстатників забезпечують більшу точність, чим відбір на основі експертних оцінок та їх інтегрованих показників груп експертних оцінок.Індексні оцінки вираховуються на основі алгоритму об’єднання самооцінок і експертних оцінок у Індекс якості сформованості професійної компетентності верстатника (ІПК), а об’єднання експертних оцінок і нормованих оцінок – у Індекс якості підготовки верстатника (ІЯП). Запропоновані методи вираховування індексних оцінок комплексно характеризують елемент функціонування соціальної підсистеми системи «Верстатник – Верстат з числовим програмним керуванням – Керуюча програма виготовлення деталі», ВВКП.Індексні оцінки характеризують міру узгодженості/розбалансованості самооцінок і експертних оцінок та експертних оцінок і нормованих оцінок, а також – системних взаємозв’язків верстатника з елементами соціальної, технічної та інформаційної підсистем відкритої системи.Переваги відбору верстатників на основі індексних оцінок, у порівнянні з експертними оцінками, спостерігалися при співставленні двох рядів рангових місць у списку прізвищ. Ряди рангових місць отримані з використанням методів – лінійної згортки, мультиплікативної згортки. Доведено, що відбір верстатників з використанням методу лінійної згортки значно точніший, якщо проводиться на основі індексних оцінок, при порівнянні з експертними оцінками. Для відбору верстатників згідно вимог Замовника доцільно використовувати метод бінарного пошуку, Предложенные методы вычисления индексных оценок при отборе станочников обеспечивают большую точность чем отбор на основе экспертных оценок та интегральных показателей групп экспертных оценок.Индексные оценки рассчитываются на основе алгоритма объединения самооценок и экспертных оценок в Индекс качества сформированности профессиональной компетентности станочника (ИПК), а объединение экспертных оценок и нормированных оценок – в Индекс качества подготовки станочника (ИКП). Предложенные методы вычисления индексных оценок комплексно характеризующих элемент функционирования социальной подсистемы системы «Станочник – Станок с числовым программным управлением – Управляющая программа изготовления детали», ССУП.Индексные оценки характеризуют степень согласованности/ разбалансированности самооценок и экспертных оценок та экспертных оценок и нормированных оценок, а также – системных взаимосвязей станочника с элементами социальной, технической и информационной подсистем открытой системы.Преимущества отбора станочников на основе индексных оценок, по сравнению с экспертными оценками, наблюдались при сопоставлении двух рядов ранговых мест в списке фамилий. Ряды ранговых мест полученные с использованием методов – линейной свертки, мультипликативной свертки. Доказано, что отбор станочников с использованием метода линейной свертки значительно точнее, если проводится на основе индексных оценок, при сравнении с экспертными оценками. Для отбора станочников в соответствии с требованиями Заказчика целесообразно использовать метод бинарного поиска
- Published
- 2019
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