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Although research examining loyalty point redemption has focused almost exclusively on fixed exchange rates between points and money (e.g., 100 points = $1), variable exchange rates are observed frequently in practice (e.g., 100 points might equate to more or less than $1, depending on the monetary price and the required points for a flight redemption within the continental United States). Such variable rates are particularly common in loyalty programs in the hospitality industry. In this research, the authors show that the stability of the exchange rate—whether the exchange rate is fixed or variable across offers—systematically influences point redemption. Consumers are less likely to redeem loyalty points and instead spend money when they observe a variable exchange rate between money and points than when they observe a fixed exchange rate, even when the average value of points is the same. This effect is demonstrated in a series of studies across contexts, including an incentive-compatible retail loyalty program and a hotel loyalty program. The findings show that a variable point exchange rate induces more optimism than a fixed exchange rate, reducing point redemption. This effect is moderated by individual differences in optimism and by point expiration date. The authors conclude by discussing the implications for managers of loyalty programs and for consumers. Note : This manuscript was submitted to JMR before Rebecca Hamilton's appointment as Editor in Chief. The editor team that began the review process, Sachin Gupta and Vikas Mittal, finished the review process and final acceptance, per the AMA policy on submissions by journal editors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive Model (SETAR_M) and linear models such as the vector error correction model (VECM), and univariate models, this article specifies forecasting models for exchange rate volatilities in Ghana and compares their forecasts accuracy using Diebold–Mariano and Pesaran-Timmermann tests statistics. The relevance of this research is to equip business owners and businesses on managing forex losses and to reduce their impact on profits, productivity and employment in high volatile and unstable currency environments. The research concludes that the non-linear SETAR model is superior to the linear models in predicting short-term volatilities in exchange rates, while the fundamentally based linear model is superior for predicting long-term volatility in exchange rates. Therefore, short-term business commitments or transactions such as raw material purchases, cash expenses or incomes in foreign currencies should be planned or managed using SETAR or a non-linear model, whereas long-term contractual obligations like futures and forward contracts should be planned with a fundamentally based multivariate linear model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the literature by analysing shock propagation mechanisms between world uncertainty, exchange rates and country-specific commodity terms of trade. Using monthly data from 2008 to 2020 for eight commodity currencies' exchange rates, we analyse the impulse responses based on local projections. The study results show that a shock from the exchange rates which are net transmitters of shocks through the direct United States (US) dollar effect causes world uncertainty to rise and subsequently fall due to the indirect commodity terms of trade effect. Also, in response to world uncertainty shock, the exchange rates fall in the risk-on period and subsequently overshoot during the risk-off period when investors seek the safe haven of the dollar. The world uncertainty shock on the exchange rate is predominantly experienced in the economies that largely trade commodities with the US, particularly Russia and Canada. The study finds evidence that the dollar is a prime cause of world uncertainty. Hence, for policy implications, the study discusses that policymakers, investors, or traders pay attention to the dollar which is the main invoicing currency in the international market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article demonstrates the use of foreign-exchange (FX) derivatives in portfolio management, highlighting the strategic applications of FX forwards, futures, swaps, and options. It begins by detailing how these derivatives help institutional investors mitigate the adverse effects of currency fluctuations on internationally diversified portfolios. A significant focus is placed on currency hedging with derivatives overlays, which consolidate currency exposures across asset classes into a centralized management function, thereby enhancing overall risk management. The article also delves into the strategic uses of FX options, which offer flexible, tailored risk management strategies crucial for handling the complex dynamics of global financial markets. Through real-world examples and theoretical insights, the article illustrates the critical role of FX derivatives in stabilizing portfolio returns and managing exposure to currency risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short time series are fundamental in the foreign exchange market due to their ability to provide real-time information, allowing traders to react quickly to market movements, thus optimizing profits and mitigating risks. Economic transactions show a strong connection to foreign currencies, making exchange rate prediction challenging. In this study, the exchange rate estimation between the US dollar (USD) and the Chilean peso (CLP) for a short period, from 2 August 2021 to 31 August 2022, is modeled using the nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) and calculated with the fourth-order Runge–Kutta method, respectively. Additionally, the daily fluctuations of the current exchange rate are characterized using the Hurst exponent, H, and later used to generate short synthetic fluctuations to predict the USD–CLP exchange rate. The results show that the USD–CLP exchange rate can be estimated with an error of less than 5 % , while when using short synthetic fluctuations, the exchange rate shows an error of less than 10 % . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To develop a 3D, high‐sensitivity CEST mapping technique based on the 3D stack‐of‐spirals (SOS) gradient echo readout, the proposed approach was compared with conventional acquisition techniques and evaluated for its efficacy in concurrently mapping of guanidino (Guan) and amide CEST in human brain at 3 T, leveraging the polynomial Lorentzian line‐shape fitting (PLOF) method. Methods: Saturation time and recovery delay were optimized to achieve maximum CEST time efficiency. The 3DSOS method was compared with segmented 3D EPI (3DEPI), turbo spin echo, and gradient‐ and spin‐echo techniques. Image quality, temporal SNR (tSNR), and test–retest reliability were assessed. Maps of Guan and amide CEST derived from 3DSOS were demonstrated on a low‐grade glioma patient. Results: The optimized recovery delay/saturation time was determined to be 1.4/2 s for Guan and amide CEST. In addition to nearly doubling the slice number, the gradient echo techniques also outperformed spin echo sequences in tSNR: 3DEPI (193.8 ± 6.6), 3DSOS (173.9 ± 5.6), and GRASE (141.0 ± 2.7). 3DSOS, compared with 3DEPI, demonstrated comparable GuanCEST signal in gray matter (GM) (3DSOS: [2.14%–2.59%] vs. 3DEPI: [2.15%–2.61%]), and white matter (WM) (3DSOS: [1.49%–2.11%] vs. 3DEPI: [1.64%–2.09%]). 3DSOS also achieves significantly higher amideCEST in both GM (3DSOS: [2.29%–3.00%] vs. 3DEPI: [2.06%–2.92%]) and WM (3DSOS: [2.23%–2.66%] vs. 3DEPI: [1.95%–2.57%]). 3DSOS outperforms 3DEPI in terms of scan–rescan reliability (correlation coefficient: 3DSOS: 0.58–0.96 vs. 3DEPI: −0.02 to 0.75) and robustness to motion as well. Conclusion: The 3DSOS CEST technique shows promise for whole‐cerebrum CEST imaging, offering uniform contrast and robustness against motion artifacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Industria Textila is the property of Institutul National de Cercetare-Dezvoltare pentru Textile si Pielarie and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

During the Covid-19 pandemic, the debate on monetary financing was reignited and several economists called for governments to borrow from their central banks to finance larger deficits. Sub-Saharan Africa provides useful insights into this debate since it is a region where "fiscal dominance" has long been widespread. We find that fiscal dominance is stronger during periods of pressure on public finances, particularly when alternative financing options are limited. We also find that central bank financing of government does have an inflationary impact through the exchange rate channel. Numerical legal limits on central bank financing can be an effective way to mitigate the risks, even if they are not always binding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effects of exchange rates, export intensity, and days to receivable on the profitability of Indonesian coal exporting companies, using panel data from 2015 to 2023. The objective is to find if export intensity and exchange rate impedes the effect of days to receivable on profitability. Interaction analyses reveal that the positive impact of receivables on profitability diminishes with increasing exchange rates. Conversely, the interaction between days to receivable and export intensity does not significantly affect profitability. Therefore, it might be beneficial for Indonesian coal companies should explore implementing more flexible trade credit policies to enhance customer relationships, particularly during periods of rupiah appreciation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Stable Economy Journal is the property of University of Sistan & Baluchestan and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The paper investigates the monetary policy of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in the post-Bretton Woods era, shedding light on the dynamics between the SNB and the Bundesbank and its successor, the European Central Bank, respectively. Our econometric analysis shows a high degree of synchronisation between the SNB's interest rate changes and the decisions made in Frankfurt. The results also suggest a strong tendency toward direct exchange rate targeting before 1999, which coincides with a period of lower demand shock synchronization. This finding is supported by our analysis of the minutes of the Governing Board of the SNB for the period between 1982 and 1993. The discussions and decisions of the board show that Swiss monetary policy was largely guided by policy rate changes of the Bundesbank. The SNB routinely set the policy rate below the policy rate of the Bundesbank to enforce an implicit exchange rate target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the interplay between domestic and global monetary policies, capital flows, and exchange rate dynamics in Israel. Using a novel dataset of daily sectoral FX transactions, we examine the transmission of monetary shocks identified from yield curve shifts around central bank announcements. Local projections reveal that foreign financial investors respond strongly and symmetrically to domestic and foreign shocks, which suggests that they react to the interest rate differential. Domestic institutional investors counteract this by rebalancing their portfolios. In particular, the impact of US monetary shocks on Israeli institutional investors and on the exchange rate depends on the shocks' correlation with the S&P 500 stock index. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the mechanisms through which domestic and global monetary policies influence small open economies like Israel, and highlight the limited monetary autonomy of small open economies even under flexible exchange rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between the parallel and official exchange rates of Chinese Yuan (CNY) to U.S. Dollar (USD). Motivated by recent evidence about Bitcoin as a major channel for capital flight from China, we construct a parallel exchange rate implied by Bitcoin prices in the Chinese and U.S. crypto exchanges. While the dual exchange rates are cointegrated, adjustment to long-run equilibrium is non-linear and depends on policy changes and state of the markets. Results from our Markov Switching Vector Error Correction model suggest the parallel exchange rate responds one-to-one in the long-run with respect to an official exchange rate innovation. However, an unexpected change in the parallel rate is countered by an opposite and state-dependent response in the official exchange rate, suggesting active exchange policy interventions by the Chinese monetary authority. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Iran is one of the major producers of caviar, and caviar is one of the most important export products in the country's fisheries sector. Therefore, due to the importance of its place in the country's economy and non-oil exports, the caviar export and its influencing factors have been investigated during the years 1991-2020. The data analyzed in this research were collected from the statistics published by the Iranian Fisheries Organization, the statistics of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, the Central Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The results showed that there is a long-term relationship (the existence of co-accumulation) between the variables of Iran's caviar export and Iran's export price, average world price, exchange rate, world export amount and sanctions. Also, the results of the Granger causality test showed that all factors affecting the amount of export have a significant one-way effect on the amount of caviar export. Therefore, due to the importance of caviar export as a source of foreign exchange for the country and in order to maintain the country's position in international trade, it is recommended to provide scientific and technical support from research centers in this field in order to improve the productivity and increase the production efficiency of sturgeon fry. Also, the ECM coefficient showed that 98% of the imbalances in Iran's caviar exports are resolved in each period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current research delves into the implications of exchange rate fluctuations on commodity trade between Pakistan and Japan, utilizing the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag method. While prior studies have predominantly utilized the symmetric cointegration approach, the current study posits that the limited assumption of symmetry between the exchange rate and the trade flows could have hindered the empirical findings. The research investigates both the symmetric and asymmetric effects of exchange rate fluctuations on 102 Pakistani industries that import from Japan and 62 industries that export to Japan at the industry level from 1980 to 2020. The outcomes indicate that in nearly half of the importing and exporting industries that engage in trade with Japan, there is evidence of a significant impact of asymmetric exchange rate fluctuations on trade flows in both the short and long term. The study suggests that policymakers should consider the industry-specific impact of exchange rate fluctuations on trade flows and implement targeted policies accordingly. Particularly, industries that benefit from currency depreciation should be encouraged through export incentives, while industries negatively affected by currency volatility should be provided with hedging mechanisms and other forms of support to mitigate their losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The monetary policy is an important driver of the real estate sector's performance. The recent wave of monetary tightening in 2022 in response to the cost-of-living crisis has been associated with the decline in housing prices across the globe. There are two main channels through which the US monetary policy may affect the real estate market in the dollar-pegged countries: the cost of serving mortgages (financing cost) and the exchange rate channel (for example, the appreciation of the US dollar and consequently the local currency). The exchange rate channel, which involves the appreciation of the US dollar and the subsequent effect on the local currency, is particularly significant in the case of Dubai, given how international the housing market in Dubai and might be viewed as a tradable good. Using recent data, the purpose of this study to evaluate the spillover impact of the US monetary policy on the housing market performance in the dollar-pegged countries using Dubai as a case study. Design/methodology/approach: For this purpose, this study collected unique longitudinal data on the volume of the monthly transactions of residential properties and performs a panel-data analysis using within-variation models. The changes in the interest rate policy in the USA are determined by the domestic inflation in the USA, thereby, representing an exogenous shock in the UAE. Findings: The results are robust to different specifications and suggest that a strong negative correlation between the interest rate in the USA and the housing sector demand in Dubai. Fiscal policy measures can be taken to mitigate tighter financial conditions in case of policy misalignment. Originality/value: Few studies have looked at the spillover impact of the global monetary conditions on the real estate market in the GCC region. This study fills this gap by exploring the impact of the US financial conditions on Dubai's real estate, using panel data analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this research was to estimate the influencing factors on the size of the underground economy using fuzzy logic. The illegal nature of the underground economy also limits private investment and economic growth. For example, companies that operate in the underground economy are not able to use the institutions that support the market economy (judiciary and courts), which makes them less inclined to invest. Therefore, it can be said that one of the most important issues that should be considered in economic policies is the underground sector of the economy. The research method in this research is of a descriptive-survey type, and the type of research in the current research is causal and practical in terms of the purpose, because the expected results of the research can be used in examining the dimensions of the underground economy. It is used in university and economic resources. To estimate the index of the underground economy and examine its trend using fuzzy logic, it is necessary to perform these steps; Accurate determination of indicators, fuzzification, definition of basic rules, inference engine, determinism and sensitivity analysis. To estimate the index of the underground economy with fuzzy logic, they are divided into three sub-criteria including the financial sector, the monetary sector and the real sector. The results showed that the informal sector constitutes an important part of the economy and the labor market in developing countries. This sector plays a major role in production, creating employment and income by producing goods and services, transferring skills by newcomers to the sector, reducing unemployment and using individual capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the interplay between exchange rate volatility, inflation rates, and real interest rates on Zambia's economic growth from 1992 to 2022, utilizing annualized time series data. The study was necessitated by the limited published literature and relatively varying findings on the variables' relationships in resource-dependent countries, such as Zambia. Diagnostic tests, including stationarity and co-integration analyses, were employed to determine integration orders and potential long-run relationships. The linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models were employed to assess short- and long-run dynamics of the variables on economic growth. The results established a positive short-run relationship between inflation rates and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the linear autoregressive distributive lag model, while an inverse relationship was observed in the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag model, suggesting that negative shocks in inflation rates had a highly significant positive impact on economic growth. Furthermore, interest rates exhibited a positive relationship with economic growth, further suggesting that positive shocks had a greater significant direct effect on economic growth in comparison to negative shocks in the short and long run, respectively. Finally, exchange rates in both models exhibited an inverse relationship with economic growth irrespective of positive or negative shocks in the long run, highlighting the adverse effect of exchange rate volatility on economic growth prospects in developing countries, such as Zambia. The speed of adjustment to convergence following any disruptions was determined to be 75.18% (ARDL) and 89.19% (NARDL), highlighting relatively fast speeds of adjustments from any short-run disruptions. Notably, some of the policy recommendations included regular assessments of exchange rate volatility influences on import prices, domestic inflation, and production costs in key sectors. Additionally, the implementation of currency hedging options and forwards as well as bulking of foreign exchange reserves will ensure the stability of exchange rates against other major currencies in various economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents that the ratio of residential-to-nonresidential investment is a strong in-sample and out-of-sample predictor for the dollar up to 12 quarters. The predictability is robust to a battery of additional checks and holds for other G10 currencies. We explain the predictability in an analytical model with time-varying housing preference, productivity, and volatility. In the model, the U.S. housing investment share is higher during periods with higher growth and lower uncertainty, corresponding to lower future nontradable prices, dollar index, and excess returns. We find strong empirical support for the channel. Alternative explanations, including the business and financial cycle, find less empirical support. This paper was accepted by David Sraer, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4932. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki katılım bankalarının finansal performansını değerlendirmek amacıyla 2016:Q1-2023:Q4 dönemlerindeki finansal verileri içeren bir veri seti kullanılmıştır. Veri seti; Albaraka, Kuveyt Türk, Türkiye Finans, Vakıf Katılım ve Ziraat Katılım bankalarının her bir çeyrek dönem için çeşitli finansal göstergelerini kapsamakta ve toplamda 160 gözlem içermektedir. Çalışmada aktif karlılık ve özkaynak karlılığı bağımlı değişken; büyüme oranı, kredi temerrüt takas oranı, finansal hizmetlere güven değişkeni, döviz kuru ve kar pay oranı bağımsız değişken olarak belirlenmiştir. Çalışmada, bankaların finansal performansını belirleyen faktörlerin analiz edilmesinde hem zaman, hem de yatay kesit etkilerini dikkate alan panel veri analizi kullanılmıştır. Araştırmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre, kredi temerrüt takası, döviz kuru ve kar payı oranının katılım bankalarının performansı üzerinde anlamlı etkileri bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca büyümenin aktif karlılık üzerindeki etkisi anlamlı iken özkaynak karlılığı üzerindeki etkisinin anlamlı olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Finansal hizmetlere güvenin ise katılım bankalarının performansı üzerinde anlamlı bir etkisi yoktur.

Inflation is one of the basic problems in any economy that has adverse and unavoidable effects. Economists and policymakers have always paid attention to the issue of inflation and investigated ways to reduce it. One of the crucial economic issues in Iran is identifying the factors that affect the inflation rate. Among these, the monetary base and its various components play an important role in this field. Therefore, this study attempts to compare the impact of the components of monetary base resources on inflation in Iran. In this research, the influence of the components of monetary base resources on inflation in Iran in the period 1975–2020 has been compared using the random forest model. The results of parameter estimation using random forest regression for the main influential variables are currency growth rate, GDP growth rate, expected inflation, growth rate of public sector debt to the central bank, and growth rate of net foreign assets of the central bank. The growth rate of bank debt to the central bank does not affect inflation, so the relationship between the government and the central bank should be such that it removes the burden of the money volume caused by the budget deficit of the government and can relate the money volume to changes in production. Some of these results confirm the results of some previous research. In previous research, the growth rate of the exchange rate and the growth rate of the public sector debt to the central bank have been listed as the most important factors affecting the monetary base, and the variables that did not have an effect on inflation in this research were mostly unaffected in the previous researches as well.

This paper analyses the causal relationship between Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), Equities Market Volatility, Exchange Rate and Inflation in Zimbabwe using a monthly time series data between October 2018 and November 2021. The granger causality model was used to present the link between the variables, and EGARCH was used to account for volatility and asymmetric effects on the variables. To incorporate innovations and responses into the Granger model, impulse response functions were used. Links between exchange rate and foreign portfolio investments were found. This only suggests that exchange rate volatility will vary when overseas investors purchase and sell financial securities on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE). In contrast, foreign investors sell local financial securities when local stock market returns are negative, leading to a significant outflow of foreign portfolio investment thereby reducing demand for currency. A significant causal relationship was found between the volatility of the exchange rate and stock market returns. It is assumed that stock market returns, and foreign portfolio investments are caused by fluctuating currency rates. The relationship between exchange rate and ZSE returns, and inflation was found based on Granger causality. This implies that stocks are not suitable for long-term investments that compensate investors for their diminished purchasing power. Policy makers should advise the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange to recommend a reduction in capital gains tax and withholding tax and this encourages investors to hold local equities for a long time.

This research paper attempts to test the applicability of the Purchasing Power Parity theory to the Algerian economy. Annual data from 1990 to 2023, specifically concerning the official exchange rate and the consumer price index, were used. By conducting a series of econometric tests, such as stationarity tests, cointegration tests, and causality studies, the study concludes that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the official exchange rate and the consumer price index. Hence, it can be inferred that the PPP theory holds true for the Algerian context. This implies that purchasing power parity is maintained in the long run, and therefore, this theory can be relied upon to determine and interpret the exchange rate of the Algerian dinar in the current scenario. The results of the error correction model estimation from the joint integration test also showed a direct relationship between the nominal exchange rate and the consumer price index, such that a relative change in the exchange rate by one unit leads to a relative change in the consumer price index by 0.14. The error correction model coefficient, estimated at 0.024, reveals the speed of the return to the equilibrium position and is a relatively weak correction coefficient. Based on the R² value, it can be said that exchange rates represent 69% of the changes in the consumer price index. The Granger causality test revealed a causal relationship running from the official exchange rate to the consumer price index for the Algerian economy.

This study investigates the impacts of the nominal exchange rate on Turkish stock prices using a structural break cointegration test with endogenously determined multiple structural breaks and an asymmetric cointegration test for the period of 2002-2021. The study differs from previous research on this relation in two respects. First, it takes into account structural breaks in relation to both regimes and trends (C/S/T). Second, it extends the asymmetric cointegration with multiple structural breaks. The findings of structural break cointegration capture the break dates in line with the Turkish economics dynamics and reveal the negative effects of the exchange rates on stocks, with their significance and magnitude differing in regimes. Similarly, NARDL results indicate that negative and positive exchange rate shocks exhibit asymmetric effects on stocks for both the whole period and regimes. The overall findings demonstrate that exchange rate variations have distinctive impacts on stock prices when considering structural break and asymmetrical dynamics. In this background, policymakers and foreign investors need to take into account these dynamics when dealing with Turkish financial markets.

Investors should consider the Indonesia Composite Index (ICI) as a key indicator before making investment decisions, as it reflects the performance of industries and the broader economic growth. In Indonesia, the ICI exhibits fluctuating movements, making accurate forecasting essential for understanding the country's economic conditions, which are closely tied to capital flows, growth, and tax revenues. This study aims to forecast the ICI using the SARIMAX-GARCH model, incorporating macroeconomic factors such as the inflation rate and exchange rate. The findings reveal that both variables significantly impact the ICI, with the model achieving a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.952% for training data and 5.233% for test data. The model's performance is supported by an R² value of 0.9782 and a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.0003. This research not only improves the accuracy of ICI forecasts but also supports Indonesia's 8th Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for decent work and economic growth. Doi: 10.28991/HIJ-2024-05-03-014 Full Text: PDF

Transfer pricing can be misapplied by the company by transferring taxable income to subsidiaries and companies with special relationships to significantly push down the tax expense. This research aims to determine factors that can affect transfer pricing decisions. Those factors include tax income, exchange rates, tunnelling incentives, and multinationals. The research object of this research is a company from the consumer non-cyclical sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2017 to 2021. The samples are eight companies selected with purposive sampling technique, resulting in 40 observation data. The analysis technique implemented in this research is panel data regression tested Eviews12. This research reveals that tax income and tunnelling incentives negatively influence transfer pricing decisions. At the same time, the exchange rate and multi-nationality do not affect transfer pricing decisions. Variable tax income, exchange rate, tunnelling incentives, and multinationals have simultaneously affected transfer pricing decisions.

The present study examines the sensitivity of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to the business cycle and rate of inflation in the case of five emerging market economies, namely BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Existing literature on the ERPT has documented inconclusive evidence, focusing more on developed economies. However, emerging markets like BRICS are given only peripheral attention, especially in the nonlinear framework. Using a backward-looking Philips curve analytical framework and the logistic smooth transition regression (LSTR) method, we found (1) ERPT coefficients are greater than zero but less than one, implying that exporters neither follow producer or local currency pricing. (2) With inflation as a transition variable, the Taylor hypothesis is validated in the case of three (Russia, India, and South Africa) countries wherein the degree of ERPT increases with the inflation rate, unlike in the case of Brazil and China. (3) With output growth as a transition variable, the ERPT is found to be more during a boom than during a recession for Russia and South Africa. In contrast, in the case of India, ERPT responds negatively to the level of economic activity. In the case of Brazil and China, however, no evidence of nonlinearity was established with respect to output growth. (4) Our results advocate adopting effective and credible policies like inflation targeting regimes and stable output growth to avoid appreciable pass-through of exchange rate changes into domestic inflation. Such policies enhance the credibility gains and may thus lead to low ERPT. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, this study analyzes how inbound tourist arrivals (TOUR) respond to EPU in Australia. Empirical results show that EPU can Granger cause TOUR in most cases before COVID-19, whereas little evidence supports this finding after the pandemic. At the national level, it is found that EPU was the net risk transmitter before COVID-19 but became the net risk receiver after COVID-19, while TOUR was the net risk receiver over March 2007-March 2020 but became the net risk transmitter in the remaining months. The impulse response functions reflect that a 2.81% decline in the total TOUR was observed due to a 1% increase in EPU, which gradually decayed within 9 months for the sub-sample before COVID-19. Similar findings hold at the state/territory level. These findings provide profound evidence for the national and state/territory governments to allocate tourism resources and formulate supportive tourism policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose This study examined the effect of the risk-free rate of return and other macroeconomic variables on the stock prices of firms listed on the Pakistan Stock Exchange-100 (PSX). Methodology The data from 2013 to 2023 was collected from the Karachi Stock Exchange website, Yahoo Finance, and the State Bank of Pakistan’s website. The main techniques for data analysis were Johansen-Juselius (J.J.) cointegration and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Findings The findings show that a risk-free rate significantly impacts stock returns in the long run. Further, foreign direct investment (FDI) has a significant positive impact on the stock return of listed companies. The cointegration result indicates a long-run association among all the selected variables. Moreover, the results of the VECM show that the error correction term (ECT) in VECM (-1) is negative (-0.150) and significant. The negative coefficient of 0.150 indicates that deviations from the long-run equilibrium will be corrected at a speed of 15% per period, approximately within 7 months. Conclusion The study concludes that stock prices and macroeconomic indicators have long-run associations. Conversely, changes in the risk-free rate of return by the government or the banking sector have the opposite effect on stock prices. This study assists government officials, stock market participants, and policymakers in determining the profitability of the National Savings Scheme and Banks.

The non-oil sectors play a crucial role in driving in­dustrial transformation and generating foreign exchange for a nation. Therefore, the performance of this sector is influenced by the implementation of policies and programs, as well as the availability of credit facilities from deposit money banks (DMBs). This study examines the relationship between DMBs' credit and non-oil exports in Nigeria from 1986 to 2022. The data is analysed using the bounds test co-integration procedure of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results indicate that there is a significant (Prob. < 0.05) positive relationship be­tween DMBs' credit and exchange rates. Furthermore, DMBs' lending rate and inflation rate demonstrate a significant nega­tive relationship, while gross fixed capital formation shows an inverse relationship with non-oil exports in Nigeria. The cau­sality test reveals no causality between bank credit to non-oil sectors, exchange rate, and the volume of non-oil exports in Ni­geria. However, there is a unidirectional causality between gross fixed capital formation, the lending rate of banks, the in­flation rate, and non-oil exports in Nigeria. Based on these find­ings, it is recommended that both the government and the monetary authorities make concerted efforts to stabilise the macroeconomic variables and promote growth-oriented programs meant to boost the aim of enhancing the production of locally produced goods in the non-oil sectors of Nigeria. Additionally, the Central Bank of Nigeria should consider re­ducing the bank rate, as this would directly impact other rates within the country.

This study to examines the factors that can affect the Exports of Pakistan, by paying particular attention to letter of credit financing of Islamic banks in Pakistan and exchange rate. Sample data of Islamic listed Banks is selected from last twelve years i.e., 2010 to 2022 with 975 observations. Study measure exports performance using exports figures of Pakistan as the proxy for Export performance while external factors namely letter of credit financing of Islamic banks and exchange rate used as an influencing factor. Applying panel analysis, the results provide positive association Pakistan’s Export with Islamic banks letter of credit financing and exchange rate, indicating that easy availability of letter of credit financing and favorable exchange rate can help increase Pakistan’s exports. The study's findings can aid policy managers, particularly those hoping to boost exports and foreign exchange through them, as well as managers seeking to broaden their knowledge of the key elements influencing export performance.

This research investigates the interplay between exchange rates, inflation, and interest rates, collectively influencing economic growth in the ASEAN Region. The study constructs a comprehensive analytical framework based on economic theories like purchasing power parity, monetary theories of inflation, and the International Fisher Effect theory of interest. It aims to discern the individual and interactive effects of exchange rate movements, inflation, and interest rate fluctuations on overall economic output. Through empirical analysis covering 2007 to 2022 in Southeast Asia, using a saturated sample, the study employs statistical models and time-series analysis. Classical assumption tests, descriptive statistics, and path analysis unravel the nuanced influence of these macroeconomic factors on GDP variations. Findings indicate that exchange rates have a positive yet statistically insignificant impact on inflation while significantly and positively influencing interest rates. Inflation, in turn, significantly affects interest rates. Exchange rates negatively impact gross domestic product, supporting the idea that a competitive real exchange rate fosters growth in developing regions. Additionally, inflation and interest rates negatively impact economic growth in the ASEAN Region, confirming the research hypotheses. This study provides significant insights into the intricate interactions shaping economic dynamics in Southeast Asia.

The aim of this study was to reveal the effects of exchange rate ($) and energy (oil) prices on livestock product (red meat, milk, eggs) and input (feed) prices in Türkiye through Path Analysis. The material of this study consisted of monthly average exchange rate and energy prices vs. fattening feed, milk feed, and egg feed prices, and producer prices of red meat, milk, and eggs for the years 2010-2023. According to the findings of this study, one unit increase in the exchange rate resulted in a total increase of 0.98, 0.99 and 0.98 units in the prices of fattening, milk and egg feed, respectively; a total increase of 0.93, 0.98 and 0.97 units in red meat, milk and egg prices, respectively (P0.05). As a result, it has been observed that the exchange rate affects, particularly, input and livestock product prices, whereas energy prices affect only input costs in Türkiye. Therefore, it is thought that reducing external dependence on energy and upward fluctuations in exchange rates will make significant contributions to the reduction of input costs and product prices in animal husbandry, increase consumption rates and profitability of producers.

The nexus between the terms of trade and marginal propensity to import and the consequent policy options arising from it among economic blocs is an area that has not been given due attention in the literature. The focus of the current paper is to examine the link between the marginal propensity to import and the terms of trade in the East African Community (EAC).

The article substantiates the possibility of using R\S analysis for currency market research. The work is aimed at researching the currency market. The issue of research using R\S of the currency market is a new scientific direction. The study of the foreign exchange market, its regulation, influence on the financial systems of the countries of the world is gaining relevance these days. Foreign exchange transactions are often equated with the process of buying or selling securities. The paper analyzes the behavior of currency quotes on the foreign exchange market by determining the dynamic changes over time of the Hurst indicator, as one of the tools of R/S analysis, within the framework of the fractal market hypothesis. Calculations of the Hearst index were carried out according to the adjusted formulas of R/S-analysis, which allows to compare the value of the indicator on the foreign exchange market of Ukraine in different economic conditions. In a stable economic situation, the Hearst indicator tends to maintain its average value, while it is an indicator of events that directly or indirectly affect the state's economy and the rate of its national currency. The purpose of the work is to study the behavior of exchange rates of currency pairs by monitoring the Hurst indicator, as one of the tools of fractal analysis, within the framework of the fractal market hypothesis. Forecasting the future behavior of exchange rates is very important, as it allows to reduce currency risks and ensure the improvement of the effectiveness of various decisions in the field of international financial management. The Hurst indicator is widely used in time series analysis due to its stability. Its calculation requires minimal assumptions about the system being studied, and based on it, time series can be classified by memory type and depth. It can distinguish a random series from a non-random one. The paper provides an example of calculating the Hurst index using Mandelbrot's method. This indicator is used as an indicator of the long-term memory of time series. Hurst's indicator as a tool for fractal analysis of systems allows you to determine the degree of persistence of financial series, the presence of long-term memory in the currency market. Daily data on the exchange rate of the hryvnia to the dollar and the euro are taken from the official website of the NBU. It turned out that periods of stability of the hryvnia exchange rate relative to other currencies are observed in different years. Accordingly, the fractal dimension of the series also changes. For most periods of the hryvnia exchange rate, anti-persistent series were found, that is, when the decline is most likely replaced by growth. R\S analysis techniques analysis is a key tool for market analysis, which allows you to understand when and which assets should be bought and when to sell.

The study examines the impact of exchange rate and inflation on stock market (Nifty-50) returns in India using monthly data spanning from April 2013 to February 2024. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration and error correction parameterization approach is applied to analyse this relationship. The findings reveal an insignificant long-run association between stock market returns and both inflation and the exchange rate. However, there is a significant short-run relationship between stock market returns and both inflation and the exchange rate.

The relevance of the research is due to the change in the monetary policy regime of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), which consists in the transition from inflation targeting with a floating exchange rate to a fixed exchange rate as the nominal anchor of monetary policy under martial law. Such a plan to change the monetary policy regime was carefully calculated and outlined in the NBU's Monetary Policy Guidelines for the Duration of Martial Law. The timeliness and effectiveness of the NBU's monetary policy decisions enabled it to mitigate the impact of the military shock on the macro-financial stability of the national economy. The purpose of the article is to consider the theoretical and practical aspects of the NBU's monetary policy under martial law. Methodology. The study uses a systematic method of cognition to determine the sequence of application of monetary policy instruments to smooth out monetary shocks of the wartime period; an abstract-logical method to understand the future monetary policy strategy based on the abandonment of the fixed exchange rate regime and a gradual return to inflation targeting; and a statistical method to analyse the dynamics of monetary indicators of the national economy. Results. The paper presents the main principles of the NBU's monetary policy under martial law. The first shock from the war led to changes in the conduct of monetary policy and a shift to unconventional instruments of its regulation. The gradual adaptation of the economy to the new conditions determined the NBU's further steps to ease monetary policy and move to greater exchange rate flexibility. Practical implications. The practical significance of the research results is to assess the conditions for the transition from the key policy rate-based inflation targeting regime as the main monetary policy instrument to the use of foreign exchange interventions as the main operation in the foreign exchange market under martial law. Value / Originality. The originality of the article is due to the need to identify the prerequisites for the transition to a new monetary policy strategy in a wartime economy. Conclusions. The NBU's timely response to the negative phenomena associated with deteriorating inflation expectations, multiple exchange rates and pressure on international reserves helped prevent the development of a currency and financial crisis in Ukraine. Despite the active hostilities, the NBU is trying to find options that will allow it to conduct an effective monetary policy in the face of a full-scale invasion and unprecedented internal and external shocks. Internationally, Ukraine has exceeded expectations and the NBU has shown a high degree of responsibility, professionalism and creativity in the conduct of monetary policy. Increased confidence in the central bank is a valuable resource in times of martial law.

The purpose of this research is to analyze internal and external factors on the Stock Return. As for the Internal factors include: Return on Equity, Net Interest Margin, Loan Deposit Ratio, and Net Performing Loan. While external factors include: the inflation rate, Cryptocurrency, Exchange Rate, and dummy of pandemic. The population in this study is the company registered on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the banking sector for the 2015-2020 period. There were 16 Banks represented as a sample in this study and used a collection technique, namely purposive sampling. The type of research used descriptive quantitative and the method of analysis using E-views 10. The final results in this study indicate that internal factor such as ROE has a positive and significant effect on stock returns, NIM influential negative but not significant to stock returns, LDR has negative and significant towards stock returns, NPL has a positive but not significant to stock returns. Furthermore the external factor such as The inflation rate has negative and insignificant towards stock return, Cryptocurrency as a positive and significant on stock returns, Exchange Rate has a negative and significant on stock returns, and dummy with before and after pandemic category has positive and significant on stock return. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange rate extreme shocks affect stock prices differently, depending on the sign and the magnitude of changes. This study, therefore, examines the asymmetric impact of multifarious exchange rate shocks on stock prices in sub-Saharan Africa between 1 March 2013 and 14 January 2023, using the novel, multiple thresholds nonlinear autoregressive distributed-lag (MTNARDL) model. This model estimates the effects of extremely small and extremely large positive and negative shocks in exchange rate on stock prices. The study partitioned the sample into pre-COVID-19 and COVID-19 era. The study's outcome indicates: first, exchange rate shocks below 25th percentile affect stock prices positively but above the 25th percentile and below the upper quantiles (75th percentile) the effects is mixed; second, at the upper quantiles (75th percentile), both exchange rate depreciation and appreciation adversely affect the value of stocks; third, the link between the series is highly sensitive to global shocks; fourth, causality result upholds the flow-oriented model in four out of the six countries. The policy implications are: (i) the responses of stock prices to exchange rates changes are sensitive to the sign and size of the shock, as well as sensitive to global shocks. Consequently, specific policy recommendations have been suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Agricultural Economics & Social Sciences is the property of Egyptian National Agricultural Library (ENAL) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Many studies have examined the asymmetric effect of US dollar-denominated crude oil prices on petroleum product prices. The 'rockets and feathers' argument suggests that a crude price increase raises petroleum product prices more than a corresponding decrease in crude prices lowers product prices. However, for the countries that do not use the US dollar as a medium of exchange, petroleum product prices are also affected by the exchange rates. This paper analysed the asymmetric effects of both US dollar-denominated crude oil prices and exchange rates on local currency-denominated diesel prices for 27 European countries in the short run as well as long run. The overall empirical evidence suggests that, in the short run, diesel prices react more to crude oil price increases than to a decrease, parallel to the 'rockets and feathers' argument. However, contrary to that argument, the long-run adjustment is the opposite. As for exchange rate shocks, again the 'rockets and feathers' argument holds and diesel prices respond more to exchange rate depreciation than appreciation in the short and long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Disciplines Economics & Administrative Scienves Studies is the property of International Journal of Disciplines in Economics & Administrative Sciences Studies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Recent studies provide evidence that economic policy uncertainty (EPU) is linked with the workers' remittances, yet the channel through which EPU affects the workers' remittances has been less explored. To understand the above said channel, this study uses monthly data from Pakistan, which ranges from January 2015 to November 2022. Based on the results obtained by using different econometric techniques, this study provides evidence that the foreign exchange rate mediates the relationship between EPU (both global and domestic) and workers' remittances. Additionally, it finds that the domestic EPU mediates the relationship between the global EPU and the exchange rate. Interestingly, the results highlight the limited influence of altruistic motives on remittances instead the findings suggest the prevalence of self-interest as the dominant driving factor behind workers’ remittances in the case of Pakistan. The findings of this study have implications for policymakers and stakeholders in formulating effective strategies to harness the potential of workers’ remittances for economic development and welfare enhancement in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose of the study: This study aims to investigate how Bangladesh's food inflation is affected by remittance influx. Methodology: The analysis utilizes secondary data collected from 2005 to 2022. In order to accomplish the goals, this study employs the food inflation rate as an endogenous variable, while workers' remittance, official exchange rate, and broad money supply are used as exogenous factors. The data is sourced from the World Development Index (WDI). In this investigation, co-integration is assessed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to provide an accurate outcome. Findings: The study's findings show that, both in the short and long term, the influx of remittances from migrants has a positive and considerable impact on driving up food inflation. This analysis shows that while having a negative short-term impact, the money supply and exchange rate have a long-term, positive, and considerable influence on food inflation. Application of the Study: This research proposes that promoting agricultural output and motivating recipients of remittances to invest in income-generating activities can effectively reduce their reliance on food consumption. If these recommendations are effectively followed, the inflow of workers' remittances will have a positive impact on the economy and contribute to reducing inflationary challenges. Originality of the study: By employing the most recent data set and cutting-edge methodology, the present research adds to the body of available research by demonstrating a link between food inflation and remittances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange rate fluctuations have far-reaching consequences for national economies, companies and, above all, consumers. It is therefore important to understand the mechanisms by which these fluctuations affect food prices in domestic markets. In this context, we examine the complex relationship between exchange rates and domestic food prices and attempt to calculate the pass-through effect of the exchange rate on domestic prices. To examine the pass-through effect of the exchange rate on food prices, we use monthly USD/TRY exchange rate data from January 2003 to July 2023 as well as the global food price index, the export-import rate for food and the producer price index for food in Türkiye. We employ the vector autoregression (VAR) method to determine the optimal lags of the variables included in the analysis and the artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm to calculate the overall pass-through effect of the USD/TRY exchange rate on domestic food prices. The results show that the pass-through effect of the variable on food prices persists for three months: the current month, the previous month and the two previous months. The total pass-through effect of the exchange rate on food prices reaches up to 27%. Half of this impact comes from the previous month's food prices. In addition, the ratio of food exports to imports accounts for about 12% of the increase in domestic food prices. The results also show that the variable with the highest pass-through effect is the producer price index and that 90% of the increase in food prices is due to domestic dynamics, while the effect of price increases in foreign markets is only about 10%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research work focused on diaspora remittances and growth of the agricultural sector in Nigeria. Annual time series data on workers remittances, migrant remittances, foreign direct investment and exchange rate were employed in the research. Using econometric techniques (error correction model and the vector auto regression model), the research found that workers remittances, migrant remittances and FDI have increased the output of the agricultural sector in Nigeria. Exchange rate decreased the inflow of official remittances to the agricultural sector. The study concluded that for the period 1990 - 2022, remittances had enhanced the output of the agricultural sector with migrant remittances having the most effect. Thus, the main recommendations was that government should pursue the unified exchange rate policy, intensification and sustenance of the inflow of remittances to the agricultural sector through the provision of a formal channel for Nigerian workers and migrants to send in monies into Nigeria without rigorous hurdles. (C12,F24,Q14). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]