Search

The dynamics of epidemics depend on how people's behavior changes during an outbreak. At the beginning of the epidemic, people do not know about the virus, then, after the outbreak of epidemics and alarm, they begin to comply with the restrictions and the spreading of epidemics may decline. Over time, some people get tired/frustrated by the restrictions and stop following them (exhaustion), especially if the number of new cases drops down. After resting for a while, they can follow the restrictions again. But during this pause the second wave can come and become even stronger then the first one. Studies based on SIR models do not predict the observed quick exit from the first wave of epidemics. Social dynamics should be considered. The appearance of the second wave also depends on social factors. Many generalizations of the SIR model have been developed that take into account the weakening of immunity over time, the evolution of the virus, vaccination and other medical and biological details. However, these more sophisticated models do not explain the apparent differences in outbreak profiles between countries with different intrinsic socio-cultural features. In our work, a system of models of the COVID-19 pandemic is proposed, combining the dynamics of social stress with classical epidemic models. Social stress is described by the tools of sociophysics. The combination of a dynamic SIR-type model with the classical triad of stages of the general adaptation syndrome, alarm-resistance-exhaustion, makes it possible to describe with high accuracy the available statistical data for 13 countries. The sets of kinetic constants corresponding to optimal fit of model to data were found. They characterize the ability of society to mobilize efforts against epidemics and maintain this concentration over time, and can further help in the development of strategies specific to a particular society., Comment: Minor corrections, enriched discussion and extended bibliography

Background: Identifying clusters of physical activity (PA) from accelerometer data is important to identify levels of sedentary behaviour and physical activity associated with risks of serious health conditions and time spent engaging in healthy PA. Unsupervised machine learning models can capture PA in everyday free-living activity without the need for labelled data. However, there is scant research addressing the selection of features from accelerometer data. The aim of this systematic review is to summarise feature selection techniques applied in studies concerned with unsupervised machine learning of accelerometer-based device obtained physical activity, and to identify commonly used features identified through these techniques. Feature selection methods can reduce the complexity and computational burden of these models by removing less important features and assist in understanding the relative importance of feature sets and individual features in clustering. Method: We conducted a systematic search of Pubmed, Medline, Google Scholar, Scopus, Arxiv and Web of Science databases to identify studies published before January 2021 which used feature selection methods to derive PA clusters using unsupervised machine learning models. Results: A total of 13 studies were eligible for inclusion within the review. The most popular feature selection techniques were Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and correlation-based methods, with k-means frequently used in clustering accelerometer data. Cluster quality evaluation methods were diverse, including both external(e.g. cluster purity) or internal evaluation measures (silhouette score most frequently). Only four of the 13studies had more than 25 participants and only four studies included two or more datasets. Conclusion: There is a need to assess multiple feature selection methods upon large cohort data consisting of multiple (3 or more) PA datasets. The cut-off criteria e.g. number of components, pairwise correlation value, explained variance ratio for PCA, etc. should be expressly stated along with any hyperparameters used in clustering. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

To investigate the relationship between fibro-inflammatory biomarkers and cardiovascular structure/function in people with Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) compared to healthy controls and the effect of two lifestyle interventions in T2D.Data were derived from the DIASTOLIC randomised controlled trial (RCT) and includes a comparison between those with T2D and the matched healthy volunteers recruited at baseline. Adults with T2D without cardiovascular disease (CVD) were randomized to a 12-week intervention either: (1) exercise training, (2) a low-energy (∼810 kcal/day) meal-replacement plan (MRP) or (3) standard care. Principal Component and Fisher's linear discriminant analysis were used to investigate the relationships between MRI acquired cardiovascular outcomes and fibro-inflammatory biomarkers in cases versus controls and pre- and post-intervention in T2D.At baseline, 83 people with T2D (mean age 50.5 ± 6.4; 58% male) and 36 healthy controls (mean age 48.6 ± 6.2; 53% male) were compared and 76 people with T2D completed the RCT for pre- post-analysis. Compared to healthy controls, subjects with T2D had adverse cardiovascular remodelling and a fibro-inflammatory profile (20 differentially expressed biomarkers). The 3D data visualisations showed almost complete separation between healthy controls and those with T2D, and a marked shift towards healthy controls following the MRP (15 biomarkers significantly changed) but not exercise training.Fibro-inflammatory pathways and cardiovascular structure/function are adversely altered before the onset of symptomatic CVD in middle-aged adults with T2D. The MRP improved the fibro-inflammatory profile of people with T2D towards a more healthy status. Long-term studies are required to assess whether these changes lead to continued reverse cardiac remodelling and prevent CVD.

Background Despite generally high coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination rates in the UK, vaccination hesitancy and lower take-up rates have been reported in certain ethnic minority communities. Methods We used vaccination data from the National Immunisation Management System (NIMS) linked to the 2011 Census and individual health records for subjects aged ≥40 years (n = 24 094 186). We estimated age-standardized vaccination rates, stratified by ethnic group and key sociodemographic characteristics, such as religious affiliation, deprivation, educational attainment, geography, living conditions, country of birth, language skills and health status. To understand the association of ethnicity with lower vaccination rates, we conducted a logistic regression model adjusting for differences in geographic, sociodemographic and health characteristics. Results All ethnic groups had lower age-standardized rates of vaccination compared with the white British population, whose vaccination rate of at least one dose was 94% (95% CI: 94%–94%). Black communities had the lowest rates, with 75% (74–75%) of black African and 66% (66–67%) of black Caribbean individuals having received at least one dose. The drivers of these lower rates were partly explained by accounting for sociodemographic differences. However, modelled estimates showed significant differences remained for all minority ethnic groups, compared with white British individuals. Conclusions Lower COVID-19 vaccination rates are consistently observed amongst all ethnic minorities.

Dealing with uncertainty in applications of machine learning to real-life data critically depends on the knowledge of intrinsic dimensionality (ID). A number of methods have been suggested for the purpose of estimating ID, but no standard package to easily apply them one by one or all at once has been implemented in Python. This technical note introduces \texttt{scikit-dimension}, an open-source Python package for intrinsic dimension estimation. \texttt{scikit-dimension} package provides a uniform implementation of most of the known ID estimators based on scikit-learn application programming interface to evaluate global and local intrinsic dimension, as well as generators of synthetic toy and benchmark datasets widespread in the literature. The package is developed with tools assessing the code quality, coverage, unit testing and continuous integration. We briefly describe the package and demonstrate its use in a large-scale (more than 500 datasets) benchmarking of methods for ID estimation in real-life and synthetic data. The source code is available from https://github.com/j-bac/scikit-dimension , the documentation is available from https://scikit-dimension.readthedocs.io ., 12 pages, 4 figures, 1 table

Automatic grading is not a new approach but the need to adapt the latest technology to automatic grading has become very important. As the technology has rapidly became more powerful on scoring exams and essays, especially from the 1990s onwards, partially or wholly automated grading systems using computational methods have evolved and have become a major area of research. In particular, the demand of scoring of natural language responses has created a need for tools that can be applied to automatically grade these responses. In this paper, we focus on the concept of automatic grading of short answer questions such as are typical in the UK GCSE system, and providing useful feedback on their answers to students. We present experimental results on a dataset provided from the introductory computer science class in the University of North Texas. We first apply standard data mining techniques to the corpus of student answers for the purpose of measuring similarity between the student answers and the model answer. This is based on the number of common words. We then evaluate the relation between these similarities and marks awarded by scorers. We then consider an approach that groups student answers into clusters. Each cluster would be awarded the same mark, and the same feedback given to each answer in a cluster. In this manner, we demonstrate that clusters indicate the groups of students who are awarded the same or the similar scores. Words in each cluster are compared to show that clusters are constructed based on how many and which words of the model answer have been used. The main novelty in this paper is that we design a model to predict marks based on the similarities between the student answers and the model answer., 27 pages; added questions for section 6; correction of typos

Introduction: To capitalize on the increasing availability of accelerometry data for epidemiological research it is desirable to compare and/or pool data from surveys worldwide. This study aimed to establish whether free-living physical activity outcomes can be considered equivalent between three research-grade accelerometer brands worn on the dominant and non-dominant wrist. Of prime interest were the average acceleration (ACC) and the intensity gradient (IG). These two metrics describe the volume and intensity of the complete activity profile; further, they are comparable across populations making them ideal for comparing and/or pooling activity data. Methods: Forty-eight adults wore a GENEActiv, Axivity, and ActiGraph on both wrists for up to 7-days. Data were processed using open-source software (GGIR) to generate physical activity outcomes, including ACC and IG. Agreement was assessed using pairwise 95% equivalence tests (±10% equivalence zone) and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC). Results: ACC was equivalent between brands when measured at the non-dominant wrist (ICC ≥ 0.93), but approximately 10% higher when measured at the dominant wrist (GENEActiv and Axivity only, ICC ≥ 0.83). The IG was equivalent irrespective of monitor brand or wrist (ICC ≥ 0.88). After adjusting ACC measured at the dominant wrist by −10% (GENEActiv and Axivity only), ACC was also within (or marginally outside) the 10% equivalence zone for all monitor pairings. Conclusion: If average acceleration is decreased by 10% for studies deploying monitors on the dominant wrist (GENEActiv and Axivity only), ACC and IG may be suitable for comparing and/or collating physical activity outcomes across accelerometer datasets, regardless of monitor brand and wrist.

Background: Asthma is a disease characterized by ventilation heterogeneity (VH). A number of studies have demonstrated that VH markers derived by using impulse oscillometry (IOS) or multiple-breath washout (MBW) are associated with key asthmatic patient related outcome measures and airways hyperresponsiveness. However, the topographical mechanisms of VH in the lung remain poorly understood.Objectives: We hypothesized that specific regionalization of topographical small-airway disease would best account for IOS- and MBW-measured indices in patients.Methods: We evaluated the results of paired expiratory/inspiratory computed tomography in a cohort of asthmatic (n = 41) and healthy (n = 11) volunteers to understand the determinants of clinical VH indices commonly reported by using IOS and MBW. Parametric response mapping (PRM) was used to calculate the functional small-airways disease marker PRMfSAD and Hounsfield unit (HU)-based density changes from total lung capacity to functional residual capacity (Delta HU); gradients of Delta HU in gravitationally perpendicular (parallel) inferior-superior (anterior-posterior) axes were quantified.Results: The Delta HU gradient in the inferior-superior axis provided the highest level of discrimination of both acinar VH (measured by using phase 3 slope analysis of multiple-breath washout data) and resistance at 5 Hz minus resistance at 20 Hz measured by using impulse oscillometry (R5-R20) values. Patients with a high inferior-superior Delta HU gradient demonstrated evidence of reduced specific ventilation in the lower lobes of the lungs and high levels of PRMfSAD. A computational small-airway tree model confirmed that constriction of gravitationally dependent, lower-zone, small airway branches would promote the largest increases in R5-R20 values. Ventilation gradients correlated with asthma control and quality of life but not with exacerbation frequency.Conclusions: Lower lobe predominant small-airways disease is a major driver of clinically measured VH in adults with asthma.

This work is driven by a practical question: corrections of Artificial Intelligence (AI) errors. These corrections should be quick and non-iterative. To solve this problem without modification of a legacy AI system, we propose special `external' devices, correctors. Elementary correctors consist of two parts, a classifier that separates the situations with high risk of error from the situations in which the legacy AI system works well and a new decision for situations with potential errors. Input signals for the correctors can be the inputs of the legacy AI system, its internal signals, and outputs. If the intrinsic dimensionality of data is high enough then the classifiers for correction of small number of errors can be very simple. According to the blessing of dimensionality effects, even simple and robust Fisher's discriminants can be used for one-shot learning of AI correctors. Stochastic separation theorems provide the mathematical basis for this one-short learning. However, as the number of correctors needed grows, the cluster structure of data becomes important and a new family of stochastic separation theorems is required. We refuse the classical hypothesis of the regularity of the data distribution and assume that the data can have a fine-grained structure with many clusters and peaks in the probability density. New stochastic separation theorems for data with fine-grained structure are formulated and proved. The multi-correctors for granular data are proposed. The advantages of the multi-corrector technology were demonstrated by examples of correcting errors and learning new classes of objects by a deep convolutional neural network on the CIFAR-10 dataset. The key problems of the non-classical high-dimensional data analysis are reviewed together with the basic preprocessing steps including supervised, semi-supervised and domain adaptation Principal Component Analysis., Corrected and restructured version with some extensions

In this article, we consider a version of the challenging problem of learning from datasets whose size is too limited to allow generalisation beyond the training set. To address the challenge, we propose to use a transfer learning approach whereby the model is first trained on a synthetic dataset replicating features of the original objects. In this study, the objects were smartphone photographs of near-complete Roman terra sigillata pottery vessels from the collection of the Museum of London. Taking the replicated features from published profile drawings of pottery forms allowed the integration of expert knowledge into the process through our synthetic data generator. After this first initial training the model was fine-tuned with data from photographs of real vessels. We show, through exhaustive experiments across several popular deep learning architectures, different test priors, and considering the impact of the photograph viewpoint and excessive damage to the vessels, that the proposed hybrid approach enables the creation of classifiers with appropriate generalisation performance. This performance is significantly better than that of classifiers trained exclusively on the original data, which shows the promise of the approach to alleviate the fundamental issue of learning from small datasets.

ImportanceObesity and ethnicity are well characterised risk factors for severe COVID-19 outcomes, but the differential effects of obesity on COVID-19 outcomes by race/ethnicity has not been examined robustly in the general population.ObjectiveTo investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and COVID-19 mortality across different ethnic groups.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis is a retrospective cohort study using linked national Census, electronic health records and mortality data for English adults aged 40 years or older who were alive at the start of pandemic (24th January 2020).ExposuresBMI obtained from electronic health records. Self-reported ethnicity (white, black, South Asian, other) was the effect-modifying variable.Main Outcomes and MeasuresCOVID-19 related death identified by ICD-10 codes U07.1 or U07.2 mentioned on the death certificate from 24th January 2020 until December 28th 2020.ResultsThe analysis included white (n = 11,074,708; mean age 61.9 [±13.4] years; 54% women), black (n = 416,542; 56.4 [±11.7] years; 57% women), South Asian (621,691; 55.7 [±12.4] years; 51% women) and other (n = 478,196; 55.3 [±11.6] years; 55% women) ethnicities with linked BMI data. The association between BMI and COVID-19 mortality was stronger in ethnic minority groups. Compared to a BMI of 22.5 kg/m2 in white ethnicities, the adjusted HR for COVID-19 mortality at a BMI of 30 kg/m2 in white, black, South Asian and other ethnicities was 0.95 (95% CI: 0.87-1.03), 1.72 (1.52-1.94), 2.00 (1.78-2.25) and 1.39 (1.21-1.61), respectively. The estimated risk of COVID-19 mortality at a BMI of 40 kg/m2 in white ethnicities (HR = 1.73) was equivalent to the risk observed at a BMI of 30.1 kg/m2, 27.0 kg/m2, and 32.2 kg/m2 in black, South Asian and other ethnic groups, respectively.ConclusionsThis population-based study using linked Census and electronic health care records demonstrates that the risk of COVID-19 mortality associated with obesity is greater in ethnic minority groups compared to white populations.QuestionDoes the association between BMI and COVID-19 mortality vary by ethnicity?FindingsIn this study of 12.6 million adults, BMI was associated with COVID-19 in all ethnicities, but with stronger associations in ethnic minority populations such that the risk of COVID-19 mortality for a BMI of 40 kg/m2 in white ethnicities was observed at a BMI of 30.1 kg/m2, 27.0 kg/m2, and 32.2 kg/m2 in black, South Asian and other ethnicities, respectively.MeaningBMI is a stronger risk factor for COVID-19 mortality in ethnic minorities. Obesity management is therefore a priority in these populations.