Search

ABSTRACT Objective: This study aimed to present a temporal and spatial analysis of the 2018 measles outbreak in Brazil, particularly in the metropolitan city of Manaus in the Amazon region, and further introduce a new tool for spatial analysis. Methods: We analyzed the geographical data of the residences of over 7,000 individuals with measles in Manaus during 2018 and 2019. Spatial and temporal analyses were conducted to characterize various aspects of the outbreak, including the onset and prevalence of symptoms, demographics, and vaccination status. A visualization tool was also constructed to display the geographical and temporal distribution of the reported measles cases. Results: Approximately 95% of the included participants had not received vaccination within the past decade. Heterogeneity was observed across all facets of the outbreak, including variations in the incubation period and symptom presentation. Age distribution exhibited two peaks, occurring at one year and 18 years of age, and the potential implications of this distribution on predictive analysis were discussed. Additionally, spatial analysis revealed that areas with the highest case densities tended to have the lowest standard of living. Conclusion: Understanding the spatial and temporal spread of measles outbreaks provides insights for decision-making regarding measures to mitigate future epidemics.

Abstract Background Automated summarization of scientific literature and patient records is essential for enhancing clinical decision-making and facilitating precision medicine. Most existing summarization methods are based on single indicators of relevance, offer limited capabilities for information visualization, and do not account for user specific interests. In this work, we develop an interactive content extraction, recognition, and construction system (CERC) that combines machine learning and visualization techniques with domain knowledge for highlighting and extracting salient information from clinical and biomedical text. Methods A novel sentence-ranking framework multi indicator text summarization, MINTS, is developed for extractive summarization. MINTS uses random forests and multiple indicators of importance for relevance evaluation and ranking of sentences. Indicative summarization is performed using weighted term frequency-inverse document frequency scores of over-represented domain-specific terms. A controlled vocabulary dictionary generated using MeSH, SNOMED-CT, and PubTator is used for determining relevant terms. 35 full-text CRAFT articles were used as the training set. The performance of the MINTS algorithm is evaluated on a test set consisting of the remaining 32 full-text CRAFT articles and 30 clinical case reports using the ROUGE toolkit. Results The random forests model classified sentences as “good” or “bad” with 87.5% accuracy on the test set. Summarization results from the MINTS algorithm achieved higher ROUGE-1, ROUGE-2, and ROUGE-SU4 scores when compared to methods based on single indicators such as term frequency distribution, position, eigenvector centrality (LexRank), and random selection, p

The rapid evolution of influenza A viruses poses a great challenge to vaccine development. Analytical and machine learning models have been applied to facilitate the process of antigenicity determination. In this study, we designed deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to predict Influenza antigenicity. Our model is the first that systematically analyzed 566 amino acid properties and 141 amino acid substitution matrices for their predictability. We then optimized the structure of the CNNs using particle swarm optimization. The optimal neural networks outperform other predictive models with a blind validation accuracy of 95.8%. Further, we applied our model to vaccine recommendations in the period 1997 to 2011 and contrasted the performance of previous vaccine recommendations using traditional experimental approaches. The results show that our model outperforms the WHO recommendation and other existing models and could potentially improve the vaccine recommendation process. Our results show that WHO often selects virus strains with small variation from year to year and learns slowly and recovers once coverage dips very low. In contrast, the influenza strains selected via our CNN model can differ quite drastically from year to year and exhibit consistently good coverage. In summary, we have designed a comprehensive computational pipeline for optimizing a CNN in the modeling of Influenza A antigenicity and vaccine recommendation. It is more cost and time-effective when compared to traditional hemagglutination inhibition assay analysis. The modeling framework is flexible and can be adopted to study other type of viruses.

Subjects receiving the same vaccine often show different levels of immune responses and some may even present adverse side effects to the vaccine. Systems vaccinology can combine omics data and machine learning techniques to obtain highly predictive signatures of vaccine immunogenicity and reactogenicity. Currently, several machine learning methods are already available to researchers with no background in bioinformatics. Here we described the four main steps to discover markers of vaccine immunogenicity and reactogenicity: (1) Preparing the data; (2) Selecting the vaccinees and relevant genes; (3) Choosing the algorithm; (4) Blind testing your model. With the increasing number of Systems Vaccinology datasets being generated, we expect that the accuracy and robustness of signatures of vaccine reactogenicity and immunogenicity will significantly improve.

We propose a system that helps decision makers during a pandemic find, in real time, the mass vaccination strategies that best utilize limited medical resources to achieve fast containments and population protection. Our general-purpose framework integrates into a single computational platform a multi-purpose compartmental disease propagation model, a human behavior network, a resource logistics model, and a stochastic queueing model for vaccination operations. We apply the modeling framework to the current COVID-19 pandemic and derive an optimal trigger for switching from a prioritized vaccination strategy to a non-prioritized strategy so as to minimize the overall attack rate and mortality rate. When vaccine supply is limited, such a mixed vaccination strategy is broadly effective. Our analysis suggests that delays in vaccine supply and inefficiencies in vaccination delivery can substantially impede the containment effort. Employing an optimal mixed strategy can significantly reduce the attack and mortality rates. The more infectious the virus, the earlier it helps to open the vaccine to the public. As vaccine efficacy decreases, the attack and mortality rates rapidly increase by multiples; this highlights the importance of early vaccination to reduce spreading as quickly as possible to lower the chances for further mutations to evolve and to reduce the excessive healthcare burden. To maximize the protective effect of available vaccines, of equal importance are determining the optimal mixed strategy and implementing effective on-the-ground dispensing. The optimal mixed strategy is quite robust against variations in model parameters and can be implemented readily in practice. Studies with our holistic modeling framework strongly support the urgent need for early vaccination in combating the COVID-19 pandemic. Our framework permits rapid custom modeling in practice. Additionally, it is generalizable for different types of infectious disease outbreaks, whereby a user may determine for a given type the effects of different interventions including the optimal switch trigger.