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We show that lender of last resort (LOLR) policy exacerbates bank interconnectedness. Using novel micro-level data, we analyze LOLR's haircut gaps: the differences between the private market and central bank haircuts. LOLR policy incentivizes banks to increase pledging and holdings of higher haircut-gap bonds, especially those issued by domestic and systemically important banks. Effects only apply to banks, not to nonbanks without LOLR access. LOLR funding revives bank bond issuance associated with higher haircut gaps and increases the subsequent correlation between pledging and issuing banks' bond prices, in particular during periods of low-market returns and for domestic, systemically important banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article considers the role of central bank interventions in credit and financial markets in support of decarbonization. Drawing on the critical macrofinance literature, we argue that central banks are constrained in greening financial flows by their continued adherence to monetary dominance – prioritizing short-term price stability – and the structural demands of global market-based finance. This has led to a narrow focus on 'market-fixing' and 'de-risking' policy interventions, implicitly outsourcing the green transition to private finance whilst asserting that central banks cannot be seen as 'climate policymakers'. Moving beyond the constraints of this macrofinancial regime remains challenging, as we illustrate with the European Central Bank's (ECB) tilting of its corporate asset purchase program. We explore the lessons from the Post-World War II credit guidance regimes employed in many countries and consider how these could be updated to meet the challenges posed by market-based finance. Such a shift would require an evolution in the role of the central bank as a public agency, challenging current norms around independence and market neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European Central Bank (ECB) has entered the preparation phase for the potential issuance of a digital euro. The digital euro under consideration represents a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), a digital representation of central bank money that is intended for use by the general public. This article foregrounds the digital euro as an infrastructure that furthers European security ambitions. It argues that the development of the digital euro is a materialization of European (in)security rationales that aim to secure pan-European financial transactions amid growing geopolitical tensions. It focuses on the development of the technology and analyses how central bankers' scenarios of the future manifest in the anticipated design and prototypes. While the provision of a financial infrastructure is the most decisive security-related implication of the digital euro, the introduction of a new form of public money is the decisive financial feature with potentially wide-ranging implications for banks. Although the ECB seeks to balance the interests of banks and other financial actors in the development of the digital euro, its plans are still met with criticism. Finally, the article argues that the ECB exerts itself more explicitly than before as a geopolitical actor in its own regard. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide evidence that the yield impact of unconventional monetary policy is not a sufficient statistic to measure the strength of the bank lending channel of unconventional monetary policy. As a laboratory, we study three major positive events in the European sovereign debt crisis—the Greek debt restructuring (private sector involvement (PSI)), outright monetary transactions (OMT), and quantitative easing (QE)—using credit registry and security-level bank balance sheet data from Portugal, a country that was directly exposed to all three events. Even though the price of sovereign debt increased by substantially more after the PSI and OMT announcements, only QE led banks to reduce their net sovereign debt holdings and had statistically and economically significant effects on lending to firms and households. The differential effect on banks' behavior reflects two forces. First, lower bank capitalization levels during the PSI and OMT episodes as well as disincentives to sell sovereign bonds because of their collateral value in the European Central Bank's long-term refinancing operation facilities reduce the effectiveness of the recapitalization channel. Second, only QE involved direct asset purchases by the central bank and thereby induced a portfolio rebalancing channel from sovereign debt to loans. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Funding: The contribution by G. Nogueira to this paper has been prepared under the Lamfalussy Fellowship Program sponsored by the European Central Bank. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00104. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We intend to show the directional volatility spillovers between the European short term interbank lending rates (3‐month Euro Interbank Offered Rate [EURIBOR] and Euro Short‐Term Rate [ESTR]) and the Hungarian Budapest Interbank Offered Rate (BUBOR) and Euro‐Hungarian Forint exchange rate. To determine the extent to which the variables affect each other's volatilities we build a five‐variable vector autoregression (VAR) and determine the spillover table like in Diebold‐Yilmaz's 2012 work. This methodology is preferred to a simple impulse response function (IRF) because we manage to avoid the problem of non‐orthogonal innovations via the generalized forecast error variance decomposition framework. The issue of variable ordering, therefore, does not arise. We focus on three episodes of increased volatility in Hungarian and European short‐term interest rates: Q3–Q4 of 2019, Q1 of 2020 and Q3 of 2022. These episodes correspond to volatility spikes in EU markets that to some extent had a measurable spillover effect on Hungarian interbank rates. We find that on average, across the entire sample of 957 observations, about 6.3% of the volatility forecast error variance in all five European and Hungarian variables comes from spillovers. The total and directional spillovers over the sample are extremely low. We conclude that the European Central Bank's surprise policy decisions have a marginal impact on Hungarian interbank rates. We also find that BUBOR is primarily a net receiver of spillovers from the MAX short‐term government bond benchmark rather than the EURIBOR—this disproved our initial considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potentially limiting nature of central bank mandates, together with non-existent standards to assess the impact of climate risks used to inhibit the incorporation of climate change considerations in central bank decisions. This paper analyses how, despite these challenges, climate change risk analysis spread among central banks by examining 941 European financial stability reports of 38 central banks in Europe and their source references. We show that the Dutch and Belgian central banks pioneered significant engagement with climate change risk in financial stability reports, followed by central banks in other Eurozone countries. Then the ECB stepped in, aggregated novel research methods into an accepted analytical framework, and moved to the centre of the stage of the process. Our analysis indicates that various types of proximity played a significant role in the spread of climate friendly central bank mandate interpretations and analytical techniques, but the engagement of a central player was crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying monetary authority response to macroeconomic imbalances using the interest rate as a proxy variable for monetary policy became ineffective after the financial crisis, when central banks exhausted the effective capacity of interest rates by reaching the zero lower bound (ZLB). In an effort to analyse the unconventional response deployed by central banks, we present and estimate a modified reaction function that uses money supply as the operational instrument of monetary policy for the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, and we verify its utility as an explanatory instrument for the behaviour of the two monetary authorities. By applying our strategy, it is feasible to identify both monetary policy reaction with regard to the economic situation as well as other possible monetary authority concerns regarding governments' fiscal behaviour and the evolution of asset markets, regardless of the monetary policy applied at any given time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the effects of the European Central Bank's (ECB) unconventional monetary policy (UMP) on the prices of selected European stock market indices during the European sovereign debt (2010–2012) and the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022) crises interventions. This research employs the instrumental variables (IV) two-stage least squares (2SLS) model approach to evaluate the effects of changes in the size of the ECB's balance sheet on the pricing of key equity market indices in Europe. The results of this study suggest that the ECB's asset value expansion had the opposite statistically significant effects on the European stock market indices' prices between the interventions. That is, an increase in the ECB's balance sheet size was associated with a decrease in the prices of the indices during the sovereign debt crisis and with a rise during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research pinpoints the price sensitivity of each of the European equity indices to the ECB's UMP and determines the different outcomes of the ECB's quantitative easing policy between the interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the European Central Bank's (ECB) challenge in applying a uniform interest rate across the economically diverse Eurozone using the Taylor Rule. The analysis reveals that the ECB's one-size-fits-all interest rate often fails to align with the economic conditions of individual member states, leading to periods of overly restrictive or loose monetary policy, especially noticeable during significant events like the global financial and euro crisis and during the recent inflation spike. The findings suggest a significant mismatch between the ECB's actual rates and those recommended by the Taylor Rule, with the discrepancies largely dependent on the assumed natural interest rate. The analysis reveals that varying assumptions about the natural rate significantly affect the perceived appropriateness of the ECB's policies, and that only the inclusion of monetary policy instruments beyond the interest rate help explain these findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Zeitschrift für Bankrecht und Bankwirtschaft is the property of De Gruyter and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the March 2024 issue, Wirtschaftsdienst published an article entitled "Inflation calculation: ECB Interest Rate Policy is Not Statistically Recognised as a Driver of Inflation" by Johannes Schwanitz. Manuel Rupprecht takes a different view in a reply; Schwanitz then explains his position in a rejoinder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Zeitschrift fur Wirtschaftspolitik is the property of De Gruyter and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Policy agendas are a well-studied institutional level phenomenon that capture the set of policy issues that an institution pays attention to over time. They are emergent in nature in that individual behaviour shapes institutional level outcomes when policy makers allocate attention to policy issues. To examine the link between individual-level actions and system-level outcomes we introduce the concept of the agenda-setting constellation, defined as a group of policy makers paying attention to a set of policy issues. Taking the European Central Bank as a case study, and using a combination of text-analysis and networks-analysis techniques, we demonstrate how these meso-level structures shape the evolving policy agenda. We then examine the roles of personal experience, institutional constraints, and policy context in driving agenda-setter constellation membership. Our results show the value of studying policy agendas as networked processes and the key role that agenda-setter constellations play in driving policy agenda dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the current state and development of the Bulgarian economy in 2023, considering domestic and regional factors. We analyze the real sector by tracking GDP, inflation, and unemployment, linking these to EU processes. Emphasis is placed on labour market adjustments in the context of digitalization and transitioning to a climate-neutral economy. The sustainability of the fiscal sector is explored through financing the green and digital transition with EU funds, and the necessary policies to maintain fiscal stability. We discuss foreign trade prospects, considering the economic conditions and expectations for Bulgaria's main trading partners, the high dependence on euro area performance, and the specifics of foreign trade relations. The banking sector and the capital market analysis focus on the implications of European Central Bank monetary policy, regulatory actions of the Bulgarian National Bank, and risks to sector stability in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. Expectations and forecasts for the Bulgarian economy through 2026 are based on assumptions about global economic processes and local challenges. We make economic policy recommendations aimed at preserving the purchasing power of the population's income and restructuring certain fiscal measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that production networks are important for the transmission of unconventional monetary policy. Firms with bonds eligible for purchase under the European Central Bank's Corporate Sector Purchase Program act as financial intermediaries by extending additional trade credit to their customers. The increase in trade credit is pronounced from core countries to periphery countries and for financially constrained customers. Customers then increase investment and employment in response to the increased trade financing, whereas suppliers expand their customer base, contributing to upstream industry concentration. Our findings suggest that trade credit redistributes the effects of monetary policy across regions and firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arsenic (As) contamination is a major environmental pollutant that adversely affects plant physiological processes and can hinder nutrients and water availability. Such conditions ultimately resulted in stunted growth, low yield, and poor plant health. Using rhizobacteria and composted biochar (ECB) can effectively overcome this problem. Rhizobacteria have the potential to enhance plant growth by promoting nutrient uptake, producing growth hormones, and suppressing diseases. Composted biochar can enhance plant growth by improving aeration, water retention, and nutrient cycling. Its porous structure supports beneficial microorganisms, increasing nutrient uptake and resilience to stressors, ultimately boosting yields while sequestering carbon. Therefore, the current study was conducted to investigate the combined effect of previously isolated Bacillus faecalis (B. faecalis) and ECB as amendments on maize cultivated under different As levels (0, 300, 600 mg As/kg soil). Four treatments (control, 0.5% composted biochar (0.5ECB), B. faecalis, and 0.5ECB + B. faecalis) were applied in four replications following a completely randomized design. Results showed that the 0.5ECB + B. faecalis treatment led to a significant rise in maize plant height (~ 99%), shoot length (~ 55%), root length (~ 82%), shoot fresh (~ 87%), and shoot dry weight (~ 96%), root fresh (~ 97%), and dry weight (~ 91%) over the control under 600As stress. There was a notable increase in maize chlorophyll a (~ 99%), chlorophyll b (~ 81%), total chlorophyll (~ 94%), and shoot N, P, and K concentration compared to control under As stress, also showing the potential of 0.5ECB + B. faecalis treatment. Consequently, the findings suggest that applying 0.5ECB + B. faecalis is a strategy for alleviating As stress in maize plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The addictive use of nicotine contained in tobacco is associated with stressor‐like emotional and cognitive effects such as anxiety and working memory impairment, and the involvement of epigenetic mechanisms such as histone acetylation has recently been reported. Although the precise nature of behavioural plasticity remains unclear, both anxiogenic‐ and working memory impairment‐like effects were observed in the present experimental model of mice treated with repeated subcutaneous nicotine and/or immobilization stress, and these effects were commonly attenuated by the histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors that induce histone acetylation. Such HDAC inhibitor‐induced resilience was mimicked by ligands for the endocannabinoid (ECB) system, a neurotransmitter system that is closely associated with nicotine‐induced addiction‐related behaviours: the anxiogenic‐like effects were mitigated by the cannabinoid type 1 (CB1) agonist arachidonylcyclopropylamide (ACPA), whereas the working memory impairment‐like effects were mitigated by the CB1 antagonist SR 141716A. Moreover, the effects of the HDAC inhibitors were also mimicked by ligands for the endovanilloid (transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 [TRPV1]) system, a system that shares common characteristics with the ECB system: the anxiogenic‐like effects were mitigated by the TRPV1 antagonist capsazepine, whereas the working memory impairment‐like effects were mitigated by the TRPV1 agonist olvanil. Notably, the HDAC inhibitor‐induced anxiolytic‐like effects were attenuated by SR 141716A, which were further counteracted by capsazepine, whereas the working memory improvement‐like effects were attenuated by capsazepine, which were further counteracted by SR 141716A. These results suggest the contribution of interrelated control of the ECB/TRPV1 systems and epigenetic processes such as histone acetylation to novel therapeutic approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the heart of the Eurozone crisis was a dramatic divergence in interest rates between member states and a reversal of previously booming cross-border credit expansion from 'core' to 'periphery' by European banks. The resulting crisis and retreat behind national borders across the Eurozone challenged European elites' decade-long project of producing European scale as a space for financial accumulation. The Eurozone crisis has been well-described but post-crisis geographies of financial integration have received limited attention. We chart the financial positionality of member states and the relations between them in the period 2012–2019 using a variety of metrics including intra-Eurozone cross-border bank lending. The post-crisis period is dominated by the European Central Bank's determination to do 'whatever it takes' to save the Euro and its financial system. The resulting asset purchases give it a qualitatively different place in the Eurozone financial system and end the crisis period's retreat behind national borders. But they do not restore pre-crisis dynamics, and, in addition, unevenness along national lines remains. The crisis era core and peripheral labels still hold but the data also reveal important nuances: not least that the distribution of giant banks matters and offshore financial centres cut across core/periphery boundaries. Yet, even as there is no return to booming core-to-periphery credit, German lending into the Eurozone and its counterpart, Italian borrowing, symbolizes the continuing fragility of the Eurozone banking system. European Central Bank efforts ended the crisis, but more than asset purchases will be required if we are not to remain stuck in 2012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we provide a comparative case study analysis of the differentiated climate change engagement of the Bank of England (BoE), European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed). Drawing on semi-structured interviews and a newly composed database of central banker speeches and legislative documents, we argue that climate (in)actions of these central banks are shaped by concerns over their reputation. A broad socio-political consensus on the need for climate change mitigation enabled the BoE and ECB to begin integrating CRFRs into their supervisory frameworks without affecting their socio-political reputation while the carbon bias in their own asset purchase programs compelled both central banks to also start greening their monetary policy to preserve their performative reputation. The Fed's more cautious moves have been driven by a fear of loss of technical reputation in the face of a growing transnational consensus on the financial stability risks of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the outlook for central banks and their potential policy rate cuts. The author believes that major central banks, such as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, will cut rates more quickly than what is currently expected by markets. The article also highlights the factors that central banks are considering, such as global GDP growth forecasts, inflationary pressures, and the path of services inflation. The author predicts that the ECB will cut rates by a further 200bps by the end of 2025, while the Fed and Bank of England will cut by 150bps over the same period. However, the author notes that there are risks to the path for policy rates, and that markets may be underestimating the extent of policy divergence between the Fed and ECB. [Extracted from the article]

In 2012, Draghi put an end to rising euro area sovereign bond yield spreads by resolving to do 'whatever it takes'. The crisis rhetoric and institutional practices of unlimited liquidity have since become commonplace, as countermeasures to recent market turmoil show. This article sets out to explain how and why 'unlimited liquidity' ideas moved to the ECB's center of economic analysis during the euro crisis. Previous work fails to decipher that the ideational shift was highly anomalous when viewed against German ordoliberalism or scholarly support for 'expansionary austerity'. Addressing this relative neglect in other accounts, we draw on qualitative text analysis and expert interviews to argue that this shift was due to norm entrepreneurs who capitalized on the uncertainty of the crisis. We employ constructivist arguments to identify four scoping conditions that account for the ascendance of 'unlimited liquidity': an indicative reference, credibility, institutional positioning and—as an extension to the literature—intellectual sensitivity. Our analysis suggests that the euro crisis changed economic ideas, and fundamentally remodels the constructivist framework for studying monetary policy in crisis times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on the GJR-GARCH model, this paper uses the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) approach to link monthly realized volatility of EU carbon future prices and macroeconomic variables to the volatility of EU carbon futures market and proposes the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model incorporating macroeconomic variables including the economic sentiment indicator of the EU, the harmonized index of consumer prices of the EU, the European economic policy uncertainty index and ECB's marginal lending facility rate (GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-X models). An empirical analysis based on the monthly macroeconomic variables and daily EUA futures data shows that the above four low-frequency macroeconomic variables have significant positive or negative impacts on the long-term volatility of EUA future prices, respectively. The GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-X models significantly outperform other competing models, including the GJR-GARCH model, GARCH-MIDAS model and standard GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model, in terms of out-of-sample volatility forecasting, which suggests that macroeconomic variables contain important information for EUA future price volatility forecasts. In particular, the GJR-GARCH-MIDAS model with harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) (GJR-GARCH-MIDAS-HICP model) performs best in out-of-sample volatility forecasting, and our findings are robust to different forecasting windows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using the Consumer Expectations Survey of the ECB, I estimate how individual expectations on core economic outcomes changed in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain right after the beginning of the Ukraine–Russia war. I find that individuals expected lower economic growth and higher inflation. The effect of the war was larger in the countries with a higher energy-imports dependency. Hence, the expectation formation process might have changed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the recent downturn in Germany's housing construction sector, marked by a significant drop in business climate indicators. Key factors include material shortages, order cancellations, financing constraints, and a lack of new orders, which have worsened since the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. A central driver for this development was the sharp and rapid increase of the ECB's key interest rate and the subsequently deteriorating financial conditions for house building. A comparison with other European countries is also provided. The outlook remains bleak, with continued pessimism expected in the housing construction sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide an overview of the formulation of the forecasts of the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England. We also provide statistical assessments of the performance of the forecasting process of those central banks. We find that the inflation forecasts have, by-and-large, been unbiased and efficient at the very short-term forecast horizon. The performance deteriorates over longer horizons. This latter finding could be attributable, inter alia, to the approach applied in the integration in the forecasting process of the assumptions on the future market-implied interest rate path. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The German economy began recovering at the beginning of 2024 and has developed better than initially expected. A sharp rise in construction investment, albeit more of a flash in the pan as a result of mild winter weather, along with strong goods exports helped the economy onto its recovery path and masked the disappointing development of private consumption, which sank unexpectedly. However, consumer sentiment has since brightened considerably: Following the recent special payments, employees in many sectors are now earning more on a permanent basis due to pay raises, which increases income security. In conjunction with the inflation rate now being stable at below the three-percent threshold, real wages are rising significantly. Added to this is the turnaround in interest rates initiated by the European Central Bank, which is making saving less attractive and loans more affordable. The UEFA European Men's Football Championship, which is being held in Germany this year, is also likely to boost consumption, albeit slightly. In addition to private consumption, foreign trade will prove to be the second mainstay of the German economy in the forecast period. On the one hand, imports are increasing as the domestic economy becomes stronger. On the other hand, the German export industry will also experience a significant boost, as industrial production is likely to pick up worldwide. Due to the high share of intermediate products and investment goods, exports "made in Germany" are particularly dependent on the global industry's economic situation. In Germany, too, industrial companies will begin investing more in their capacities from 2025 at the latest. Construction investment will then also rise again. Overall, the outlook is somewhat more positive than it was in the spring: Instead of stagnating, DIW Berlin now expects the German economy to grow by 0.3 percent in 2024 and by 1.3 percent in 2025. One risk factor for the forecast is that the full extent of the damage from the flooding in southern Germany is still unclear. In some places, production capacities could remain impaired for longer than expected. At the same time, it is also conceivable that repair and reconstruction work could increase economic output. Overall, however, the effects in one way or the other are likely to remain manageable. In addition, the tug-of-war over the next federal budget could once again become a factor contributing to uncertainty, possibly even more so than was already to be expected after the results of the EU elections in Germany. The global economy will also gain some momentum over the forecast period. The euro area is finally overcoming its weak phase for good and international trade is picking up speed. The interest rate turnaround in the major advanced economies will likely have a positive effect on residential construction and corporate investments from the second half of 2024. Overall, the global economy is expected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2024 and by 3.6 percent in 2025. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selection of oviposition sites by female moths is crucial in shaping their progeny performance and survival, and consequently in determining insect fitness. Selecting suitable plants that promote the performance of the progeny is referred to as the Preference−Performance hypothesis (or 'mother‐knows‐best'). While root infestation generally reduces the performance of leaf herbivores, little is known about its impact on female oviposition. We investigated whether maize root infestation by the Western corn rootworm (WCR) affects the oviposition preference and larval performance of the European corn borer (ECB). ECB females used leaf volatiles to select healthy plants over WCR‐infested plants. Undecane, a compound absent from the volatile bouquet of healthy plants, was the sole compound to be upregulated upon root infestation and acted as a repellent for first oviposition. ECB larvae yet performed better on plants infested below‐ground than on healthy plants, suggesting an example of 'bad motherhood'. The increased ECB performance on WCR‐infested plants was mirrored by an increased leaf consumption, and no changes in the plant primary or secondary metabolism were detected. Understanding plant‐mediated interactions between above‐ and below‐ground herbivores may help to predict oviposition decisions, and ultimately, to manage pest outbreaks in the field. Summary statement: The leaf herbivore Ostrinia nubilalis can detect and selectively lay eggs on maize plants infested by the root herbivore Diabrotica virgifera, resulting in a lower performance of its progeny. Undecane was the sole volatile to be induced in leaves of root infested plants and shaped the oviposition behaviour of O. nubilalis females. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central banks and finance ministries have been faced with growing calls for better monetary-fiscal coordination in recent years as the solution to an array of macroeconomic policy problems, promoted by an ever-wider range of stakeholders. Yet, how can the silver-bullet solution of coordination be expected to play out across very different political-economic contexts? This paper sheds light on this question by introducing a novel typology of monetary-fiscal coordination that can help us make sense of formal and informal coordination efforts in the post-2008 era. It zooms in on a peculiar but key aspect which monetary and fiscal authorities have sought to achieve coordination on: The fiscal backing of central banks' balance sheets to insure monetary policy against losses and 'insolvency'. To understand central bankers' aversion towards loss-making despite their ability to create currency, the paper develops a political economy account which emphasizes policy-makers' interpretations of their own independence and their desire for fiscal protection, in contrast to traditional accounts of delegation that treat independent agents as discretion-seekers and power-maximizers. The typology is illustrated with case studies of the European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan between 2008 and 2023, each representing a different type of monetary-fiscal coordination post-crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate whether the banks which fall under direct supervision by the European Central Bank (ECB) are more likely to be considered more stable and trustworthy by the depositors due to the stricter supervisory activities performed since the implementation of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). Under the SSM, significant banks switched from national supervisors to ECB, whereas the remaining banks remained under national supervisory authorities (NSAs). Using the difference-in-difference (DID) method, we have found evidence of increased depositors' trust in significant banks after the SSM implementation. Additionally, in anticipation of the SSM launch and the comprehensive assessment, we have found evidence of increased depositors' trust in the banks which were expected to be supervised by the ECB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A survey on monetary policy communication among former members of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) reveals that enhancing credibility and trust is viewed as the most important objective of communication. Respondents judge communication with financial markets and experts as adequate, but see room for improvement in communicating with the public. The central bank objective is seen as the most important topic. Several respondents perceived the ECB's inflation aim of "below, but close to, 2%" that was in place at the time as ambiguous and in need of clarification. Overall, there is broad consensus on various communication issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analysed the three cryptocurrencies with the largest market capitalization: Bitcoin, Ether (cryptocurrency built upon the Ethereum project's blockchain technology), and Binance coin, which account for 60% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. The purpose of this research was to measure the impact of monetary policy on the price of these cryptocurrencies using an adjusted R squared. As dependent variables, we used interest rates controlled by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve and reports from the European Central Bank and the Federal Open Market Committee. A robust Elastic Net Regression with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) residuals machine learning approach was applied to obtain robust regression coefficients and corresponding standard errors. To ascertain the robustness of the model, a technique known as rolling window cross-validation was employed. The results of this study show that monetary policy decisions and announcements significantly impact the price of cryptocurrencies. The impact on cryptocurrencies is likely to be significant both in the period of economic stability (2018-2020) and in the period of economic shocks (2020-2022). This relationship is likely to be indirect, acting through investor sentiment. The results of this study may be useful to monetary policymakers, as they reveal the link between their actions and the price of cryptocurrencies. Our model will also be useful for mutual fund managers and private investors, as they can anticipate the price dynamics of cryptocurrencies when assessing monetary policy frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In September 2022, the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices spiked at unprecedented levels. For various reasons, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe was facing an energy crisis: gas supply was significantly reduced while demand remained unchanged. Policymakers responded with a variety of measures, including regulatory interventions on the TTF market. While seeking to improve the situation in the 'real world economy', these measures have an important financial regulatory angle. This article investigates the potential impact of these interventions, in particular of the Market Correction Mechanism, on the wholesale gas market from a financial markets perspective. Considering, amongst others, observations from the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators, the European Securities and Markets Authority, and the European Central Bank, it appears that these interventions may have unintended negative consequences in light of the functioning and attractiveness of the Capital Markets Union and achieving strategic autonomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the corona crisis, and even more so when the war in Ukraine struck, the price levels of all goods in the US and Europe rose surprisingly quickly and persistently. The FED began in March 2022 and the ECB in July 2022 with historically unique interest rate increases to combat the wage-price spiral that had not yet begun. In this article we show that energy, commodities and food were the main drivers of inflation. For this reason, central banks' goal of weakening demand for labor through historically large interest rate hikes seems unwise. We argue that the current measures cannot achieve all of their objectives: slowing inflation, stabilizing financial markets and sustaining growth. If interest rates remain high, but external forces emerge with a lasting effect and keep inflation rates high, especially in smaller emerging countries, it will be difficult to counteract this on a country or regional basis through high interest rate policy and national control of the price- and wage-Phillips curve. Significant negative side effects of interest rate hikes increase the risk of not making the necessary investments and, in particular, weaken the bargaining power of particularly vulnerable employment groups. Other tools are needed to curb inflation and keep it under control, for example more investment in sectors with supply disruptions and a massive expansion of investment in renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper (re-)evaluates the effectiveness of central bank asset purchases in the euro area given their prominent role in the ECB's response to the pandemic as well as the evidence from the US suggesting diminishing returns of this policy measure over time. We analyse their macroeconomic impact in the euro area using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility and perform identification via sign and zero restrictions of Arias et al. (Econometrica 86:658–720, 2018), their fusion with high-frequency information approach akin to Jarociński and Karadi (Am Econ Macroecon 12:1–43, 2020) and a novel method which merges high-frequency identification with narrative sign restrictions of Antonlin-Diaz and Rubio-Ramirez (Am Econ Rev 108:2802–2829, 2018). We find that the potency of the ECB's asset purchases to lift inflation has indeed considerably declined over time with several factors contributing to a more muted response of prices to central bank asset purchases. Our results show that the reanchoring channel is no longer active while the counterproductive effects via the mechanism outlined in Boehl et al. (Working Paper No. 691, 2020), which we dub the capacity utilization channel, have emerged lately and are further complemented with disinflationary effects stemming from the cost channel. Also, the effects passed through more standard transmission channels of central bank asset purchases like portfolio rebalancing and signalling, while still significant, appear to be less persistent recently. Overall, our findings point to a diminishing return of the ECB's asset purchases to stabilize inflation and its expectations in the euro area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central bank communication plays a crucial role in the conduct of monetary policy, yet the research on central bank communication, while growing, is still scarce. In this paper, we analyze the communication reaction function of the European Central Bank (ECB) through topic-based indices derived from the bank's speeches. These indices are used as dependent variables in policy and communication reaction function models, as suggested by recent literature. The topics are extracted using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), a popular text mining algorithm for topic extraction. The ECB has recently reviewed its monetary policy strategy, which led to an increase in studies incorporating the new methods offered by text mining for analyzing the policy reaction function of the bank. We show how indices built through topic modelling can be used to study the communication reaction function of a central bank, and we examine which variables are significant for every topic communicated by the ECB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the role of co-jumps in the interest rate futures markets. To disentangle continuous part of quadratic covariation from co-jumps, we localize the co-jumps precisely through wavelet coefficients and identify statistically significant ones. Using high frequency data about U.S. and European yield curves we quantify the effect of co-jumps on their correlation structure. Empirical findings reveal much stronger co-jumping behavior of the U.S. yield curves in comparison to the European one. Further, we connect co-jumping behavior to the monetary policy announcements, and study effect of 103 FOMC and 119 ECB announcements on the identified co-jumps during the period from January 2007 to December 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that "zombie credit"—subsidized credit to nonviable firms—has a disinflationary effect. By keeping these firms afloat, zombie credit creates excess aggregate supply, thereby putting downward pressure on prices. Granular European data on inflation, firms, and banks confirm this mechanism. Markets affected by a rise in zombie credit experience lower firm entry and exit, capacity utilization, markups, and inflation, as well as a misallocation of capital and labor, which results in lower productivity, investment, and value added. If weakly capitalized banks were recapitalized in 2009, inflation in Europe would have been up to 0.21 percentage points higher post‐2012. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) on monetary policy flexibility, the effective lower bound (ELB), and negative interest rate policies (NIRPs), specifically in the case of the digital euro (DE). Through a combination of theoretical modeling and empirical analysis, including two extensive surveys among EU participants, we explore whether CBDCs can change the ELB and affect consumer preferences in favor of the digital euro over physical cash. Our findings indicate that the introduction of the DE could potentially move the ELB from its current value of around −1.30% by approximately 0.25%. If agents had the possibility to move their deposits into both cash and DE, they would convert approximately 52% of the converted amount into cash and the rest into CBDCs. However, over a 10 year period, the situation would shift in favor of the DE, with a share of 63%. Both findings show that NIRPs will be more limited in the case of the introduction of CBDCs (DE). These facts must be considered both when deciding whether to introduce a CBDC (DE) and after its eventual introduction in the case of NIRP application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper presents a methodology, called ROBOUT, to identify outliers conditional on a high-dimensional noisy information set. In particular, ROBOUT is able to identify observations with outlying conditional mean or variance when the dataset contains multivariate outliers in or besides the predictors, multi-collinearity, and a large variable dimension compared to the sample size. ROBOUT entails a pre-processing step, a preliminary robust imputation procedure that prevents anomalous instances from corrupting predictor recovery, a selection stage of the statistically relevant predictors (through cross-validated LASSO-penalized Huber loss regression), the estimation of a robust regression model based on the selected predictors (via MM regression), and a criterion to identify conditional outliers. We conduct a comprehensive simulation study in which the proposed algorithm is tested under a wide range of perturbation scenarios. The combination formed by LASSO-penalized Huber loss and MM regression turns out to be the best in terms of conditional outlier detection under the above described perturbed conditions, also compared to existing integrated methodologies like Sparse Least Trimmed Squares and Robust Least Angle Regression. Furthermore, the proposed methodology is applied to a granular supervisory banking dataset collected by the European Central Bank, in order to model the total assets of euro area banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amidst climate change, central banks’ roles have broadened, encompassing new responsibilities beyond tradition through widening interventions. This expansion offers institutional prospects yet could entail reputational risks in reconciling long-standing and evolving responsibilities. Despite widening interventions’ reputational risks, a comprehensive understanding of how these shape banks’ behaviour – preserving existing reputations, fostering new ones, or achieving a compatible integration of both – is lacking. To obtain a better understanding of these dynamics, we draw on bureaucratic reputation theory to examine the climate engagement of the European Central Bank (ECB). Utilising a three-fold frame analysis, we examine the ECB’s communication about its greening agenda, complemented by interview data from stakeholders. Our analysis indicates that the reputation management strategy of the ECB, amidst widening interventions, encompasses the simultaneous presence of three frames – prudence, promotion, and strategic ambiguity. Leveraging the three frames, the ECB engages in reputational pragmatism to navigate diverse audience expectations, conflicting priorities, and mitigate potential reputational risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A disordered energy transition might impact borrowers' ability to repay and service debt; this calls for methods for integrating climate into credit risk modelling. This integration is required not only for risk management, but also for adjusting credit ratings for collateral pledged in Eurosystem monetary policy operations. This study introduces an innovative methodology to evaluate Italian non-financial firms' exposure to climate policy risks, gauging the impact of climate policies on firm-level default probability (PD). By simulating a shock to energy expenditure originating from different levels of a carbon tax, we analyze the potential impact on firms' PD. Our method offers a comprehensive understanding of the channels through which energy shocks propagate and their implications on firms' vulnerability. Our findings show that the impact of carbon taxation on credit risk would be contained, raising the average PD by a range of 0.6–4.1 basis points according to the different levels of carbon tax. The effect is slightly larger for the Agriculture and Services sector, while there is no clear pattern relating to firm size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conduction band edge (ECB) energy levels of a mesoporous TiO2 film were investigated in aprotic dimethylformamide (DMF) and aqueous media to explore the influence of various proton additives and electron donors. Spectroelectrolysis (SE) technique was employed to measure the ECB in non‐aqueous solvents, revealing a significantly negative ECB in dry non‐aqueous solvents compared to values obtained in aqueous solvents. In non‐aqueous DMF, the ECB of TiO2 was found to be highly dependent on the proton‐donating additive due to the establishment of a proton adsorption–desorption equilibrium, reaching –(1.42–1.94) V versus SCE. The introduction of a well‐known electron donor, 1,3‐dimethyl‐2‐phenyl‐1,3‐dihydrobenzimidazole (BIH) led to a slight positive shift in the TiO2ECB, indicating that the electron donor contributes to the to the CB energetics of the mesoporous TiO2 films. Under aqueous conditions and in the presence of various electron donors (TEA, TEOA, ascorbic acid, EDTA•2Na, and sodium ascorbate), the proton‐donating/accepting capacity of the additive significantly influenced the pH of the aqueous solvent, causing changes in the TiO2ECB across the electrolyte solution. This study emphasizes the crucial role of proton additives and electron donors in influencing the CB energetics of mesoporous TiO2 electrodes and aims to determine the extent to which the ECB of TiO2 can shift as a result of the adsorption and intercalation of protons on its surface. The findings obtained herein contribute to the understanding of the energy efficiency of TiO2‐mediated photocatalytic systems in various solvent environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines three legal opinions recently issued by the ECB on national laws concerning cash acceptance and payments in the euro area. It analyses how the ECB ensures the Eurosystem Cash Strategy and the legal tender status of cash are respected and applied across the Member States in a uniform manner. It also discusses the implications of the opinions for consumers, merchants and financial services firms in the context of the EU's Single Currency Package and other developments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This thesis explores whether monetary policy reacts to house price movements, by employing a New Keynesian model with a housing factor and estimated using Bayesian estimation techniques. The primary emphasis of this study is on the United States, with supplementary analyses on central banks in several advanced economies. The principal finding of this thesis reveals that the Federal Reserve responded substantially but episodically to house prices. Furthermore, my investigation indicates that the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of England, and the European Central Bank did not incorporate house prices into their policy framework, whereas the Bank of Canada did so episodically. The baseline results remain robust across a range of sensitivity checks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This article aims to investigate the influence of unconventional monetary policy tools (UMPTs) employed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the inflation rate and GDP growth rate within the euro area, motivated by the principles of the Taylor rule. Research methodology – Elastic net regression with ARIMA residuals was used to analyse the relationship between UMPTs and economic indicators, measured by adjusted R-squared. Six samples were constructed, and hypothesis testing was performed using moving block bootstrapping. Residual diagnostics were used for model validation. Findings – The study revealed significant impacts of UMPTs, particularly in combination with interest rates, on inflation rates. However, adjusted R-square values for GDP growth rate were less pronounced, indicating a more complex relationship. Research contributes to understanding the dynamics of monetary policy transmission mechanisms, informing policy institutions, and guiding future research directions. Research limitations – Limitations include the focus on the euro area and the absence of analysis in other major economies. Future research should address these limitations and incorporate additional variables for a more comprehensive analysis. Practical implications – The findings provide insight for policymakers regarding the efficacy of UMPTs in influencing inflation rates, aiding in informed decision-making in monetary policy formulation and implementation. Originality/Value – This study contributes novelty by comprehensively analysing the relationship between UMPTs and economic indicators within the euro area, providing valuable insight into monetary policy institutions, and guiding future research directions.