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3 results on '"European Project: 282746,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,IMPACT2C(2011)"'

1. Climate Impacts in Europe Under +1.5°C Global Warming

Author

Aristeidis Koutroulis, Ioannis K. Tsanis, Abdulla Sakalli, Daniela Jacob, Chantal Donnelly, Robert Vautard, Andrea Damm, Lola Kotova, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Claas Teichmann, Manolis Grillakis, Stefan Sobolowski, Climate Service Center, Climate Service Center [Hambourg] (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Technical Universtiy of Crete Laboratory of Water Resources Management and Coastal Engineering, Technical University of Crete Laboratory of Water Resources Management and Coastal Engineering, Institute for Plant Ecology, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, Iskenderun Technical University, Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), European Project: 282746,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,IMPACT2C(2011), Climate Service Center [Hambourg] ( GERICS ), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht ( GKSS ), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research ( BCCR ), University of Bergen ( UIB ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ( SMHI ), and Justus-Liebig-University

Subjects
[ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, +1.5oC and +2oC global warming, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, Climate Change, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Climate Change Impacts, Effects of global warming, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 11. Sustainability, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), IMPACT2C project, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Hydropower, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, WIMEK, business.industry, Global warming, 020801 environmental engineering, Europe, Geography, 13. Climate action, Scale (social sciences), Food processing, Water Systems and Global Change, business, Tourism
Abstract

Summarization: The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change aims not only at avoiding +2°C warming (and even limit the temperature increase further to +1.5°C), but also sets long‐term goals to guide mitigation. Therefore, the best available science is required to inform policymakers on the importance of and the adaptation needs in a +1.5°C warmer world. Seven research institutes from Europe and Turkey integrated their competencies to provide a cross‐sectoral assessment of the potential impacts at a pan‐European scale. The initial findings of this initiative are presented and key messages communicated. The approach is to select periods based on global warming thresholds rather than the more typical approach of selecting time periods (e.g., end of century). The results indicate that the world is likely to pass the +1.5°C threshold in the coming decades. Cross‐sectoral dimensions are taken into account to show the impacts of global warming that occur in parallel in more than one sector. Also, impacts differ across sectors and regions. Alongside the negative impacts for certain sectors and regions, some positive impacts are projected. Summer tourism in parts of Western Europe may be favored by climate change; electricity demand decreases outweigh increases over most of Europe and catchment yields in hydropower regions will increase. However, such positive findings should be interpreted carefully as we do not take into account exogenous factors that can and will influence Europe such as migration patterns, food production, and economic and political instability. Presented on

Published
2018
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2. Evaluation of simulated decadal variations over the Euro-Mediterranean region from ENSEMBLES to Med-CORDEX

Author

Leone Cavicchia, Michel Déqué, Vladimir Djurdjevic, Sandro Calmanti, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Annarita Mariotti, Miguel Ángel Gaertner, Silvio Gualdi, Sophie Bastin, Marta Domínguez, Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile = Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA), NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), SPACE - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Belgrade [Belgrade], Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales [Toledo] (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha = University of Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), European Union, European Project: 282746,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,IMPACT2C(2011), European Project: 308378,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2012-two-stage,SPECS(2012), Agenzia Nazionale per le nuove Tecnologie, l’energia e lo sviluppo economico sostenibile (ENEA), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM)

Subjects
Mediterranean climate, Euro-Mediterranean region, Atmospheric Science, Previous generation, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Climate change, Stratification (water), 02 engineering and technology, Regional climate modeling, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, Summer season, Amplitude, Evaluation metrics, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Spatial ecology, Environmental science, Long term variations, Model development, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; Med-CORDEX simulations over the period 1979–2011 are evaluated with regard to their capability to represent observed decadal variations over the Euro-Mediterranean region and improve upon previous generation simulations from the ENSEMBLES project in their various experimental set-ups. Such an evaluation is needed to inform the use of these simulations and also future model development. For temperature, both Med-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES simulations tend to provide comparable results: they generally capture the sign and timing of the anomalies but not the amplitude. In general, no clear stratification appears when considering different types of Med-CORDEX regional modeling systems. Rather, it is remarkable that certain periods are poorly represented by all systems with a general underestimation of the observed long-term temperature trend, mostly in the summer season, even with respect to the corresponding global drivers. For precipitation, the Med-CORDEX simulations are closer to observations than the other datasets, with some improvement with respect to ENSEMBLES dataset. In general, all the systems experience difficulties in representing anomalies during specific periods or for specific regions. These appear in part due to limitations in the reanalysis boundary forcing data. For instance, in the second part of 1980s, the spatial patterns of surface air temperature during DJF/MAM are generally poorly represented, as well as the regionally averaged MAM/JJA surface air temperature decadal anomalies. Overall, the evaluation suggests limited improvement in Med-CORDEX simulations compared to ENSEMBLES, and a lack of sensitivity to resolution or coupling configuration, with persisting problems in part likely related to the representation of surface processes that could also affect the viability of future projections (e.g. the estimation of temperature trends). A set of decadal variability evaluation metrics, as applied in this study, could be useful in the context of a broader evaluation framework.

Published
2018
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3. Projections of future floods and hydrological droughts in Europe under a +2°C global warming

Author

Wouter Greuell, Fulco Ludwig, Jafet Andersson, Chantal Donnelly, Luc Feyen, Philippe Roudier, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Climate and Risk Management Unit [Ispra], JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC)-European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), European Project: 282746,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,IMPACT2C(2011), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)

Subjects
Return period, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, WIMEK, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Flood myth, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Global warming, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, Earth System Science, 020801 environmental engineering, Geography, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde, Life Science, Water Systems and Global Change, Climate model, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract

International audience; We present an assessment of the impacts of a +2°C global warming on extreme floods and hydrological droughts (1 in 10 and 1 in 100 year events) in Europe using eleven bias-corrected climate model simulations from CORDEX Europe and three hydrological models. The results show quite contrasted results between northern and southern Europe. Flood magnitudes are expected to increase significantly south of 60oN, except for some regions (Bulgaria, Poland, south of Spain) where the results are not significant. The sign of these changes are particularly robust in large parts of Romania, Ukraine, Germany, France and North of Spain. North of this line, floods are projected to decrease in most of Finland, NW Russia and North of Sweden, with the exception of southern Sweden and some coastal areas in Norway where floods may increase. The results concerning extreme droughts are less robust, especially for drought duration where the spread of the results among the members is quite high in some areas. Anyway, drought magnitude and duration may increase in Spain, France, Italy, Greece, the Balkans, south of the UK and Ireland. Despite some remarkable differences among the hydrological models’ structure and calibration, the results are quite similar from one hydrological model to another. Finally, an analysis of floods and droughts together shows that the impact of a +2°C global warming will be most extreme for France, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Albania. These results are particularly robust in southern France and northern Spain.

Published
2016
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