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Mechanical recovery for large offshore oil spills (defined as the marine environment over 10 km from shore outside of bays, lagoons, and marinas) depends on oil behavior, environmental conditions, equipment specifications, and operational issues. These factors limit oil recovery with booms and skimmers. The "rule of thumb" has been that 10-30% of the total oil spilled can be recovered. This paper describes a review of historical oil spills that found only between 2 and 6% of the total oil spilled was recovered. The limiting factors affecting mechanical recovery in offshore settings include environmental conditions, oil behavior, and logistics. Mechanical recovery will always be an important tool for spill response, especially in nearshore and in-port settings, as well as locations with sensitivity to chemical dispersants and/or in situ burning. However, its application in large offshore spills will generally result in recovery of only a fraction of the spilled oil., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Methods were developed to estimate the potential impacts and natural resource damages resulting from oil spills using probabilistic modeling techniques. The oil fates model uses wind data, current data, and transport and weathering algorithms to calculate mass balance of fuel components in various environmental compartments (water surface, shoreline, water column, atmosphere, sediments, etc.), oil pathway over time (trajectory), surface distribution, shoreline oiling, and concentrations of the fuel components in water and sediments. Exposure of aquatic habitats and organisms to whole oil and toxic components is estimated in the biological model, followed by estimation of resulting acute mortality and ecological losses. Natural resource damages are based on estimated costs to restore equivalent resources and/or ecological services, using Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) and Resource Equivalency Analysis (REA) methods. Oil spill modeling was performed for two spill sites in central San Francisco Bay, three spill sizes (20th, 50th, and 95th percentile volumes from tankers and larger freight vessels, based on an analysis of likely spill volumes given a spill has occurred) and four oil types (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). The scenarios were run in stochastic mode to determine the frequency distribution, mean and standard deviation of fates, impacts, and damages. This work is significant as it demonstrates a statistically quantifiable method for estimating potential impacts and financial consequences that may be used in ecological risk assessment and cost-benefit analyses. The statistically-defined spill volumes and consequences provide an objective measure of the magnitude, range and variability of impacts to wildlife, aquatic organisms and shorelines for potential spills of four oil/fuel types, each having distinct environmental fates and effects.